View Full Version : Property price is coming down fast
Basic is desperate to get back into property market lah, he sold off in 2008 but never buy back in 2009 lol
The most risky thing ever in Singapore is if you completely sell off your properties and rent ... I repeat, never never never do that, in fact , I must proceed to say that a minimum is an HDB + 1br near MRT as your minimum config because we are in the era of high inflation where cash quickly becomes banana money ... the era of low inflation is over ...
As whether people are swimming naked, I think forumers can report their gearing ratio (excluding CPF) and gross income to debt ratio for comparison
Mine is 0.4, 0.189
Are you sure he sold off, because in other posts (found by another forummer), he stated that prices will recover in a few month time.
My humble opinion to those who ask what to do with $ in the bank.. Short mkt when hit new high. Or short now for pocket $.
Basic is desperate to get back into property market lah, he sold off in 2008 but never buy back in 2009 lol
The most risky thing ever in Singapore is if you completely sell off your properties and rent ... I repeat, never never never do that, in fact , I must proceed to say that a minimum is an HDB + 1br near MRT as your minimum config because we are in the era of high inflation where cash quickly becomes banana money ... the era of low inflation is over ...
As whether people are swimming naked, I think forumers can report their gearing ratio (excluding CPF) and gross income to debt ratio for comparison
Mine is 0.4, 0.189
liar.........:)
may i know why 1 Devonshire ?
in 2010 .. a friend seeked my opinion..for 1 Dev and another non ccr condo .. quantum wise ..both the same ...
i recommended her the non ccr ... but she bought 1 Dev still ...
she just called me last week ... regretting big time ...
that unit that i recommended .. moved 450 psf ( size 2500 sqft)
while her 1 Dev 12xx ( sqft ) barely moved ...
Cant blame you, its her fault. One Devonshire first launch was damn worth it, I was offered 18xx psf for 2bedder mid-high flr, 3rd in the queue still got agents queue overnight, damn hot somemore during 09, but the way allgreen sell their houses really shakehead and walk away and bot something else instead. I guess perhaps is her lack of foresight + see non-core region no up
tats y i nvr buy 1 devonshire during launch when i cud actually but decided to buy elsewhr instead
but now.....different story liao;)
LOL same here... you were there during the launch??
Greed = Fear since Aug/Sept.
Whoever started this thread wants to tilt it such that Greed<Fear.
The clever multi-asset class player will know how to shift their money and make more than just one asset class all the time.
atts y i said ppty is always sentiment driven!!! greed and fear!!!
i dun even care about wat oversupply etc all those crappy fundamentals/stories
Regulators
31-10-11, 11:26
Aiya people like basic after selling all his property, start crying for property price to drop, very shortsighted imo. In 2008 he screamed that 2 years later (i.e. 2010) property would drop by 40% but it kept going up. What does it say about him? The developers may be slashing prices in China but it is unlike the subprime in the US. In china, it is the greedy developers who can't sell what they build, but in the US, it is people who bought that can't afford to finance hence foreclosures. Many in China are stashing out money to buy properties in Canada and other parts of the world except for China. Also remembr that with so much corruption going on in China, these Chinese people can't launder the money in their own country thus they part it in foreign properties like Singapore. Why Singapore? The reason is very simple, we have a stable infrastructure and foreigners know we still have a lot of room to grow being only a 45 year old nation. Singapore is land scarce and with greater influx of foreigners, how can property prices drop by 50% when there will be another property crunch in no time. Supply and demand plays a much more crucial role in determining prices in singapore rather than economics. Employment rate is high here and more businesses are being set up rather than topple here. Singapore is the easiest place to set up a business in the world and we are tax friendly to businesses. We also kept our wages low to make it more attractive for foreign enterprises. With all these dynamics in place, we will avert a property crash. Remember that we have not reached our targetted 7 million population yet and there is more room for prices to go up.
China has rejected to pump money into euro EFSF, Europe country have to tackle their own financial problems....Europe country don't come out with money to rescue themselves expect others to pay for their debt???....Italy economy weaken last few days, CDS rate shooy above 7%, pressure is on Italy now....George soros said last week Brussel deal will fail in next few weeks, the plan will not last, too little too late....let see tomorrow new ECB CEO from Italy, what he has to say.....
Wait for global crisis to kick off like lehman bros, then domino will fall like toufu...then you will start to feel winter is here, then already too late to run...
thomastansb
31-10-11, 11:44
Housing profit goes back to Singaporeans. I think it is fine. After all, it is Singaporeans who want to upgrade. Remember, Singaporeans can buy BTO. They have no need to buy private. If you want private, work hard for it.
house, food, clothing, transport & medical are human basic needs, govt should limit the profit in these areas, go for the rest of segments for big profit margin if possible....Switzerland also small country but they don't depend on property bubble, they have so many good companies, from nestle, Glencore, ABB, all the famous watches, UBS, Swiss credit, Adecco....property bubble is the most unsustainable one....
travel around the world you will know, how much is sporean paying for property, they work for whole life just to own 1 property, how stressful is their life to fight with cheap foreign labours, yet they need to work till the day they die without retirement, till the day they collapse in the rat race & the property price not enough for their medical cost, this is the red dot you are talking about.....look at the number of jump track, reservoir, high floors...burglary, robbery...more to come when recession is here....hundreds types of languages around you, wait for the social problems to surface...
I am just stating what I see in next few yrs, it will come & unfold, the red dot you see today will be totally different in few yrs down the road....all the middle class wiped out, will not be 20/80 spread, will be 10/90....then worse will be happening....are all these based on justice & equility? when all rush to join RC or CRC role, you will know.....
hold cash for 2yrs lor.....earn 1% interest minus5% inflation=nett loss of 4%/yr....so 2yrs nett loss of 8% but den ppty px crashed by 50% so still gain 42% wat:D
you make sense but sorry devilplate, you are not arrogant enough, so therefore you cant be a genius :cheers4:.
... In 2008 he screamed that 2 years later (i.e. 2010) property would drop by 40% but it kept going up.
he did that ?
wow just check into this forum and see a HUGE thread formed over night ! Thought breaking news or something....
Aiya people like basic after selling all his property, start crying for property price to drop, very shortsighted imo. In 2008 he screamed that 2 years later (i.e. 2010) property would drop by 40% but it kept going up. What does it say about him? The developers may be slashing prices in China but it is unlike the subprime in the US. In china, it is the greedy developers who can't sell what they build, but in the US, it is people who bought that can't afford to finance hence foreclosures. Many in China are stashing out money to buy properties in Canada and other parts of the world except for China. Also remembr that with so much corruption going on in China, these Chinese people can't launder the money in their own country thus they part it in foreign properties like Singapore. Why Singapore? The reason is very simple, we have a stable infrastructure and foreigners know we still have a lot of room to grow being only a 45 year old nation. Singapore is land scarce and with greater influx of foreigners, how can property prices drop by 50% when there will be another property crunch in no time. Supply and demand plays a much more crucial role in determining prices in singapore rather than economics. Employment rate is high here and more businesses are being set up rather than topple here. Singapore is the easiest place to set up a business in the world and we are tax friendly to businesses. We also kept our wages low to make it more attractive for foreign enterprises. With all these dynamics in place, we will avert a property crash. Remember that we have not reached our targetted 7 million population yet and there is more room for prices to go up.
seem like you know me better than myself in my property investment....you can continue to tell lies on this....
you can list down 100 reasons why spore is good, when time is bad, nobody care, only fighting for survival, especially china...if you know how many richest & rich chinese already in jail in last 8 yrs....same to current one, many rich chinese how they get rich, you should know well....just like many S shares, also all chinese companies listed across the world from US to Norway, canada, Spore, HK....most shares already down >60-80% last month....many still waiting for auditing result, more under probe & investigation now....also govt servant & leaders....
you think all these people will put their money or buy property in spore?? relationship between china & spore like master & slave, their money will be all gone with 1 phone call from PM or president of china.....best place for them to keep their money & asset is USA, china dare not touch USA till today, they may say NO, but they dare not request....
those chinese, not linked to govt or not worry of china govt is really small flies....when recession comes to china, these will just dump everything oversea to get funds back to china, like what they are doing now in HK....the last property for them to sell is their home in china, not spore....with these weak holders, will only make spore proerty crash more in recession, they will just disappear once in negative asset.....or you can hope they riot or create unrest in spore....
So is gold good? Or silver? Or stocks? Or Fixed D? Or overseas properties? :cheers1:
Housing profit goes back to Singaporeans. I think it is fine. After all, it is Singaporeans who want to upgrade. Remember, Singaporeans can buy BTO. They have no need to buy private. If you want private, work hard for it.
this is bubble, all bubble will burst.....these profit is not sustainable....
when bubble burst, what leftover is DEBT.....
just imagine $2mil property, borrow $1.5mil, down 40%, worth only $1.2mil, your $500k is totally gone, yet still own bank $1.4mil....bank will either chase you to pay up $200k or.....
Interest is on the way up...now any loan below S$1mil, interest is 1.8-2%...up from 1-1.2% from beginning of the yr.....more to come with S$ starting to become carry trade currency, like HK, now HK FD for 3 months is 2.5%, with FD at this rate, what you expect housig loan to be?? wait for spore to follow......
blackjack21trader
31-10-11, 12:07
the angmos have to make all of us higher than the richer middle class. otherwise who will buy their luxurious goods like bmw and gucci ? QE3 by early 2012 could lift us all property owners up to another level liao la.. it is all in the books la...they are not worried about their own debt problems..they are more worry if we and the emerging economies do not progress to the next level to make the global demand substainable hor...
by then I shall retire and you want to crash crash lor...
.LOL
:tongue3:
关云神龙股侠。
NIL SINE LABORE!
MEGA DRAGON BULL RUN: 2012-2015
START OF THE GOLDEN AGE OF THE LIONS: 2013
Regulators
31-10-11, 12:08
I think you underestimated the population of China. We don't need all the people in China to invest in Singapore, we just need a really tiny fraction like 1/2600 of Chinese people to buy up our private properties and it will send our property prices through the roof once again. Btw we do not even have 500000 new homes to cater to that tiny fraction of Chinese buyers, not to mention other nationalities like Indians, Malaysians, etc etc.
seem like you know me better than myself in my property investment....you can continue to tell lies on this....
you can list down 100 reasons why spore is good, when time is bad, nobody care, only fighting for survival, especially china...if you know how many richest & rich chinese already in jail in last 8 yrs....same to current one, many rich chinese how they get rich, you should know well....just like many S shares, also all chinese companies listed across the world from US to Norway, canada, Spore, HK....most shares already down >60-80% last month....many still waiting for auditing result, more under probe & investigation now....also govt servant & leaders....
you think all these people will put their money or buy property in spore?? relationship between china & spore like master & slave, their money will be all gone with 1 phone call from PM or president of china.....best place for them to keep their money & asset is USA, china dare not touch USA till today, they may say NO, but they dare not request....
those chinese, not linked to govt or not worry of china govt is really small flies....when recession comes to china, these will just dump everything oversea to get funds back to china, like what they are doing now in HK....the last property for them to sell is their home in china, not spore....with these weak holders, will only make spore proerty crash more in recession, they will just disappear once in negative asset.....or you can hope they riot or create unrest in spore....
I think you underestimated the population of China. We don't need all the people in China to invest in Singapore, we just need a really tiny fraction like 1/2600 of Chinese people to buy up our private properties and it will send our property prices through the roof once again. Btw we do not even have 500000 new homes to cater to that tiny fraction of Chinese buyers, not to mention other nationalities like Indians, Malaysians, etc etc.
you can continue to hope...china price already down 20-40%, if they got so much money why don't they push it up?? now they hope you bring your money to help them to push up their property market instead....
they printed RMB4trillion in 2009, how much is their debt ballooned today?? RMB14.5trillion....they dare not print much liao, scared till death to print...instead tightening their credit....
they either sell their property in HK & spore to bring money back....or ask you to buy china property now.....
the angmos have to make all of us higher than the richer middle class. otherwise who will buy their luxurious goods like bmw and gucci ? QE3 by early 2012 could lift us all property owners up to another level liao la.. it is all in the books la...they are not worried about their own debt problems..they are more worry if we and the emerging economies do not progress to the next level to make the global demand substainable hor...
by then I shall retire and you want to crash crash lor...
.LOL
:tongue3:
关云神龙股侠。
NIL SINE LABORE!
MEGA DRAGON BULL RUN: 2012-2015
START OF THE GOLDEN AGE OF THE LIONS: 2013
haha...if they can make you rich, why don't they make themselves rich & buy themselves & enjoy themselves??....you have to work like slave to them to make yourself rich yet loan your money to them, then they buy your goods instead.....
you get everything opposite....global demand 65-75% are by western world...china combined indian only consume 18-22% of world demand...they stop spending, asia is death, retrenchment & lost tons of jobs....
QE3, let see we hear from bernanke this wednesday....even he mentions, QE3 is for US housing mortgage used, not for other purpose, FED already said it....
look at gold already plunged US$30 this morning, more to come...why?? why Japanese Yen devalue this morning, gold & Euro crash like toufu?? haha.....next will be stock market, coming.....
devilplate
31-10-11, 12:23
you can continue to hope...china price already down 20-40%, if they got so much money why don't they push it up?? now they hope you bring your money to help them to push up their property market instead....
they printed RMB4trillion in 2009, how much is their debt ballooned today?? RMB14.5trillion....they dare not print much liao, scared till death to print...instead tightening their credit....
they either sell their property in HK & spore to bring money back....or ask you to buy china property now.....
Got money also cant buy ppty in china wat
Foreigners like me cant buy and their locals can only buy up to 2units in major cities rite.....their richie is super rich and poor super poor.....one richie can buy 10-20 ppty in cash while another working class cant even afford the downpayment
I tink china ppty dropping is due to their govt policies rather den a failing economy
Got money also cant buy ppty in china wat
Foreigners like me cant buy and their locals can only buy up to 2units in major cities rite.....their richie is super rich and poor super poor.....one richie can buy 10-20 ppty in cash while another working class cant even afford the downpayment
I tink china ppty dropping is due to their govt policies rather den a failing economy
foreigners if you meet certain critiria, still can buy today...find out yourself....
my taiwanese friends has 80 properties in Shanghai, that was before cooling measures.....now still hold most of them....we laugh at him now, but he bought at very low price....
devilplate
31-10-11, 12:31
foreigners if you meet certain critiria, still can buy today...find out yourself....
my taiwanese friends has 80 properties in Shanghai, that was before cooling measures.....now still hold most of them....we laugh at him now, but he bought at very low price....
I checked before leh....Individual foreigner investor cant buy china ppty....dun tink their govt relax the rules rite
Was told nid to set up a coy in china den can buy?
Regulators
31-10-11, 12:34
Let me ask you, if you are a rich indonesian, will you keep all your currency in rupiah? If you are a rich china man will you keep all your money in rmb? If you wish to keep your money in other stable currency, will you just put it in a bank or put it in pty? we do not need millions of foreigners to buy into our ptys to keep our pty prices up, just a tiny fraction is enough to drive prices up to dizzying heights. If pte property prices drop by fifty%, let me tell you nobody will want to stay in hdb liao and many of us will be buying two or 3 more ptys to keep. You scare us in 2008 that prices will plunge in 2010, now you trying to do the same. :doh:
you can continue to hope...china price already down 20-40%, if they got so much money why don't they push it up?? now they hope you bring your money to help them to push up their property market instead....
they printed RMB4trillion in 2009, how much is their debt ballooned today?? RMB14.5trillion....they dare not print much liao, scared till death to print...instead tightening their credit....
they either sell their property in HK & spore to bring money back....or ask you to buy china property now.....
devilplate
31-10-11, 12:35
And foreigner can only buy ppty in china for self stay....cannot rent out
Isit true?
I am quite keen in buying ppty in china if px drop further....
How to buy ar....anyone bot china ppty b4:)
I checked before leh....Individual foreigner investor cant buy china ppty....dun tink their govt relax the rules rite
Was told nid to set up a coy in china den can buy?
for example, different city different regulation...
在境内工作、学习时间超过3年的境外个人、港澳台地区居民和华侨因生活需要可以购买一套商品住宅，购房前需到市公安局出入境管理处办理《境外个人在境内居留状况证明》
devilplate
31-10-11, 12:37
for example, different city different regulation...
在境内工作、学习时间超过3年的境外个人、港澳台地区居民和华侨因生活需要可以购买一套商品住宅，购房前需到市公安局出入境管理处办理《境外个人在境内居留状况证明》
I tat time asked about beijing and shanghai
Only keen in these 2 cities
Let me ask you, if you are a rich indonesian, will you keep all your currency in rupiah? If you are a rich china man will you keep all your money in rmb? If you wish to keep your money in other stable currency, will you just put it in a bank or put it in pty? we do not need millions of foreigners to buy into our ptys to keep our pty prices up, just a tiny fraction is enough to drive prices up to dizzying heights. If pte property prices drop by fifty%, let me tell you nobody will want to stay in hdb liao and many of us will be buying two or 3 more ptys to keep. You scare us in 2008 that prices will plunge in 2010, now you trying to do the same. :doh:
you keep make up story, telling lies, how to discuss....
talk about china, now you switch to indonesia....whatever, when recession, all want to protect their investment...1996/7 to 2004/5, spore property down 50-60%, many indonesian sold & run road too, these are the group pushing up/down spore market in good & bad time, not those hardcore sporean for own stay.....funds are pulling out their money, look at weaker S$ compared to most currency these days, you know.....
everyone buying 2 or 3 paper property huh...or ah kong banks huh....:):)
devilplate
31-10-11, 12:52
So difficult for foreigner to buy china ppty.....so many restriction and cant rent it out....lol
Den govt restricts one pax to buy 2-3 units nia and their working class salary still so low.....cfm crash....:cheers4:
Can u imagine one day kbw set a rule tat one pax can only buy 2ppty!:scared-1: :scared-1: :scared-1: the whole world booming but our ppty will b crashing especially MMs......
If can only buy 2ppty, i will consolidate and buy 2 landed ppty nia....whahaha
Chinese protects their market quite a lot. Important stuff is tax quite a lot. Money make in China cannot be taken out so easiliy in full.
you keep make up story, telling lies, how to discuss....
talk about china, now you switch to indonesia....whatever, when recession, all want to protect their investment...1996/7 to 2004/5, spore property down 50-60%, many indonesian sold & run road too, these are the group pushing up/down spore market in good & bad time, not those hardcore sporean for own stay.....funds are pulling out their money, look at weaker S$ compared to most currency these days, you know.....
everyone buying 2 or 3 paper property huh...or ah kong banks huh....:):)
You didn't even answer his question on why your initial postings back in 2008 didn't come to fruition. Are you maintaining that what was mentioned previously by you is true? As in 2010 we have had properties' pricing going south by 40%?
You try to be a http://redwing.hutman.net/~mreed/warriorshtm/artfuldodger.htm but you're really a http://redwing.hutman.net/~mreed/warriorshtm/ferouscranus.htm
Chinese protects their market quite a lot. Important stuff is tax quite a lot. Money make in China cannot be taken out so easiliy in full.
Even salary as well. My brother (and his gf, friends that visited him) had to personally carry wards of RMB (half his pay in HKD, half in RMB) out of Shanghai (he's based there) whenever he(they) travels (for business or leisure) so as to help get the cash out.
Always felt like Chow Yun Fatt in God of Gamblers with all the bundles of cashs whenever i help go to FX changer over in Arcade to change for him. :D
You didn't even answer his question on why your initial postings back in 2008 didn't come to fruition. Are you maintaining that what was mentioned previously by you is true? As in 2010 we have had properties' pricing going south by 40%?
You try to be a http://redwing.hutman.net/~mreed/warriorshtm/artfuldodger.htm (http://redwing.hutman.net/%7Emreed/warriorshtm/artfuldodger.htm) but you're really a http://redwing.hutman.net/~mreed/warriorshtm/ferouscranus.htm (http://redwing.hutman.net/%7Emreed/warriorshtm/ferouscranus.htm)
I already answered him twice, he is telling lies...you too?...
we are talking of today situation, you want to talk about your 2008 investment, what you did here??....
look forward, look future....thing is very ugly, it's true fact, don't wait till last minutes.....In early 2008, Cosco still at S$8, last month was S$0.88, you want to wait for your property to down to $0.8 then sell, then regret too late??....up/down is just cycle, time is here, your choice....
That makes matter worst when the largest denomination in RMB is 100.:doh:
Even salary as well. My brother (and his gf, friends that visited him) had to personally carry wards of RMB (half his pay in HKD, half in RMB) out of Shanghai (he's based there) whenever he(they) travels (for business or leisure) so as to help get the cash out.
Always felt like Chow Yun Fatt in God of Gamblers with all the bundles of cashs whenever i help go to FX changer over in Arcade to change for him. :D
flagship74
31-10-11, 13:05
I already answered him twice, he is telling lies...you too?...
we are talking of today situation, you want to talk about your 2008 investment, what you did here??....
look forward, look future....thing is very ugly, it's true fact, don't wait till last minutes.....In early 2008, Cosco still at S$8, last month was S$0.88, you want to wait for your property to down to $0.8 then sell, then regret too late??....up/down is just cycle, time is here, your choice....
Ah Boy ar....it's time to take your medicine..come come to papa...!:scared-5:
Even salary as well. My brother (and his gf, friends that visited him) had to personally carry wards of RMB (half his pay in HKD, half in RMB) out of Shanghai (he's based there) whenever he(they) travels (for business or leisure) so as to help get the cash out.
Always felt like Chow Yun Fatt in God of Gamblers with all the bundles of cashs whenever i help go to FX changer over in Arcade to change for him. :D
not true...whatever you paid income tax to china govt with slips, all can remit 100% out....
there is so many channels...my taiwanese friends, remit S$300k is nothing....just hold telephone line with her wife in taiwan, he passed RMB1.5Mil to money changer in China, the wife collected equivalent amount in Taiwan$ on the spot....very common....
HK even more convenient....:):)
Ah Boy ar....it's time to take your medicine..come come to papa...!:scared-5:
don't waste your time & my time....:):)
Ah Boy ar....it's time to take your medicine..come come to papa...!:scared-5:Nice one... LOL! :cheers5:
Tsunami Coming>>>>
The rising number of Hong Kong homeowners with apartments worth less than their mortgages may further hurt sentiment already damped by the global equity rout and government curbs, according to Barclays Capital Research.
The estimated number of mortgages in “negative equity”jumped to 1,653 at the end of the third quarter from 48 three months earlier, with the value of those loans rising to HK$4.1 billion ($528 million) from HK$58 million, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said Oct. 28. An index tracking the city’s developers fell today.
The number “provides the first clear evidence of the on-going decline in Hong Kong property prices,” Barclays’ Hong Kong-based analysts Andrew Lawrence (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Andrew%20Lawrence&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) and Vivien Chan (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Vivien%20Chan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) wrote in a report today. “Further price falls are expected to follow.”
The threat of a global economic slowdown is intensifying risks in Hong Kong’s home market and the government will monitor housing policies designed to curb prices, Financial SecretaryJohn Tsang (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=John%20Tsang&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) said Oct. 27. Home transactions (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HKLRTRBU:IND) fell for a ninth straight month in September, while prices declined 3 percent from June to August, government statistics show.
The Hang Seng Property Index (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HSP:IND), which tracks the city’s seven-biggest developers, fell 2 percent as of 11:41 a.m. in Hong Kong, the biggest decline among the four industry groups in the benchmark Hang Seng Index. It declined 16 percent this year, compared with the 14 percent drop in the benchmark gauge.
Bank Valuation
Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., the world’s biggest developer, fell 2.3 percent to HK$107.10. Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd., the builder controlled by Hong Kong’s richest man, Li Ka-shing, slid 0.2 percent to HK$97.95.
Rising negative equity “suggests that bank valuations for mortgages are falling quickly,” wrote Lawrence, who forecast home prices may drop as much as 30 percent by 2013 in an earlier report. “Homebuyers will either need to use more equity to fund their home purchases or negotiate lower prices.”
The number of negative equity loans last quarter is at the highest since the second quarter of 2009. The figure reached a peak of 106,000 at the end of June 2003, when Hong Kong’s home prices ended a six-year slump that wiped about two-thirds off values on average.
Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Donald Tsang (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Donald%20Tsang&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) promised to provide more affordable homes and signaled greater government intervention in narrowing social inequality in his Oct. 12 policy address, responding to a public outcry over the more-than 70 percent surge in home prices since early 2009.
The government has in the past year raised minimum down- payment requirements on some home mortgage loans and increased land sales in an effort to curb soaring prices fueled by record low mortgage rates, a shortage of new apartment supply and an influx of buyers from other parts of China. Banks in Hong Kong have raised mortgage rates five times since March.
To contact the reporters on this story:Kelvin Wong (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kelvin%20Wong&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) in Hong Kong at
[email protected] (
[email protected])
Yes oh yes its coming... its coming. Problem is some folks insist that its already happened... Well, good to be prepared for the worse lah!... I'm waiting waiting waiting for falling durian again... :D
So difficult for foreigner to buy china ppty.....so many restriction and cant rent it out....lol
Den govt restricts one pax to buy 2-3 units nia and their working class salary still so low.....cfm crash....:cheers4:
Can u imagine one day kbw set a rule tat one pax can only buy 2ppty!:scared-1: :scared-1: :scared-1: the whole world booming but our ppty will b crashing especially MMs......
If can only buy 2ppty, i will consolidate and buy 2 landed ppty nia....whahaha
when music of musical chair stops, all know price going to go down for long time, then rush to exit together....that time the most property you have, will be the biggest laughing stock....
just like in 2004-6, cheap cheap property also no buyers interested.....wait till then or when very very few in this forum talk about property, buy!...now, you can have them....have to wait log long time this around, it's not a normal cycle.....
Tsunami Coming>>>>
The rising number of Hong Kong homeowners with apartments worth less than their mortgages may further hurt sentiment already damped by the global equity rout and government curbs, according to Barclays Capital Research.
The estimated number of mortgages in “negative equity”jumped to 1,653 at the end of the third quarter from 48 three months earlier, with the value of those loans rising to HK$4.1 billion ($528 million) from HK$58 million, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said Oct. 28. An index tracking the city’s developers fell today.
The number “provides the first clear evidence of the on-going decline in Hong Kong property prices,” Barclays’ Hong Kong-based analysts Andrew Lawrence (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Andrew%20Lawrence&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) and Vivien Chan (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Vivien%20Chan&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) wrote in a report today. “Further price falls are expected to follow.”
The threat of a global economic slowdown is intensifying risks in Hong Kong’s home market and the government will monitor housing policies designed to curb prices, Financial SecretaryJohn Tsang (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=John%20Tsang&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) said Oct. 27. Home transactions (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HKLRTRBU:IND) fell for a ninth straight month in September, while prices declined 3 percent from June to August, government statistics show.
The Hang Seng Property Index (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=HSP:IND), which tracks the city’s seven-biggest developers, fell 2 percent as of 11:41 a.m. in Hong Kong, the biggest decline among the four industry groups in the benchmark Hang Seng Index. It declined 16 percent this year, compared with the 14 percent drop in the benchmark gauge.
Bank Valuation
Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd., the world’s biggest developer, fell 2.3 percent to HK$107.10. Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd., the builder controlled by Hong Kong’s richest man, Li Ka-shing, slid 0.2 percent to HK$97.95.
Rising negative equity “suggests that bank valuations for mortgages are falling quickly,” wrote Lawrence, who forecast home prices may drop as much as 30 percent by 2013 in an earlier report. “Homebuyers will either need to use more equity to fund their home purchases or negotiate lower prices.”
The number of negative equity loans last quarter is at the highest since the second quarter of 2009. The figure reached a peak of 106,000 at the end of June 2003, when Hong Kong’s home prices ended a six-year slump that wiped about two-thirds off values on average.
Hong Kong’s Chief Executive Donald Tsang (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Donald%20Tsang&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) promised to provide more affordable homes and signaled greater government intervention in narrowing social inequality in his Oct. 12 policy address, responding to a public outcry over the more-than 70 percent surge in home prices since early 2009.
The government has in the past year raised minimum down- payment requirements on some home mortgage loans and increased land sales in an effort to curb soaring prices fueled by record low mortgage rates, a shortage of new apartment supply and an influx of buyers from other parts of China. Banks in Hong Kong have raised mortgage rates five times since March.
To contact the reporters on this story:Kelvin Wong (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Kelvin%20Wong&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1&partialfields=-wnnis:NOAVSYND&lr=-lang_ja) in Hong Kong at
[email protected] (
[email protected])
I already said this yesterday, knew it 3 days ago....be ahead....much ahead....
ikan bilis
31-10-11, 13:15
Yes oh yes its coming... its coming. Problem is some folks insist that its already happened... Well, good to be prepared for the worse lah!... I'm waiting waiting waiting for falling durian again... :D
haha... when you are damn happy picking durian that time... you kena hit by a second falling durian then how??... :scared-2: :D
when music of musical chair stops, all know price going to go down for long time, then rush to exit together....that time the most property you have, will be the biggest laughing stock....
just like in 2004-6, cheap cheap property also no buyers interested.....wait till then or when very very few in this forum talk about property, buy!...now, you can have them....have to wait log long time this around, it's not a normal cycle.....Fear not, fear not! No need to sell lah... I'm more for long term property investment. Also, the CM has effectively killed any flippers and short term investment in Singapore already. So long have holding power, then just sit on super low rental yields or no rental yields and wait out the crisis coz prices will go up eventually again. Can wait out and SSD too! :D
phantom_opera
31-10-11, 13:17
Ah Boy ar....it's time to take your medicine..come come to papa...!:scared-5:
http://redwing.hutman.net/~mreed/Assets/ferrouscranus.jpg
Fear not, fear not! No need to sell lah... I'm more for long term property investment. Also, the CM has effectively killed any flippers and short term investment in Singapore already. So long have holding power, then just sit on super low rental yields or no rental yields and wait out the crisis coz prices will go up eventually again. Can wait out and SSD too! :D
very nice....these are the iron teeth, buy top sell bottom....
like bought cosco at $8.2 & sold at $0.9 or lower later....
when see $2mil become less than $1mil....then face distorted day & night....joking, hold tight tight, don't sell, will sure come back, 3 yrs, 15 yrs or 30 yrs, can wait wan....:)
Yup. People who are able to hold on will be eventual winner in the long term. Do you see Shaw, FEO sell everything before Lethman. Infact, they are quietly buying them during that period. Investment Portfolio will change with time. But look at the top richiest man in Singapore. How have investment in properties?
Fear not, fear not! No need to sell lah... I'm more for long term property investment. Also, the CM has effectively killed any flippers and short term investment in Singapore already. So long have holding power, then just sit on super low rental yields or no rental yields and wait out the crisis coz prices will go up eventually again. Can wait out and SSD too! :D
thomastansb
31-10-11, 13:23
I think we are not connecting at all. I am talking about HDB all these while. Why did you bring in private? If you want to talk about 80% of the population, just talk about HDB. Private properties are not for the mass. A 4 bedroom HDB cost like 250-300k. There is NO 2 million properties at stake for 80% OF THE POPULATION. For those 2 million properties buyers, I am sure they have something planned for themselves.
this is bubble, all bubble will burst.....these profit is not sustainable....
when bubble burst, what leftover is DEBT.....
just imagine $2mil property, borrow $1.5mil, down 40%, worth only $1.2mil, your $500k is totally gone, yet still own bank $1.4mil....bank will either chase you to pay up $200k or.....
Interest is on the way up...now any loan below S$1mil, interest is 1.8-2%...up from 1-1.2% from beginning of the yr.....more to come with S$ starting to become carry trade currency, like HK, now HK FD for 3 months is 2.5%, with FD at this rate, what you expect housig loan to be?? wait for spore to follow......
http://redwing.hutman.net/%7Emreed/Assets/ferrouscranus.jpg
wasting your time....only brainless enjoy such brainless joke....:)
It is rather obvious. What goes up must come down. Questions are: how much and how fast?
I already said this yesterday, knew it 3 days ago....be ahead....much ahead....
haha... when you are damn happy picking durian that time... you kena hit by a second falling durian then how??... :scared-2: :DYou get someone else to go pick the durian. You just stand one corner and watch. If another durian falls, then you quickly decide if want to change durian. If already bought and too late to change, then forget about the other durian and enjoy your own durian lah... Bottomline, never regret which durian you've finally picked... :)
There is always better durian. Better contended.
You get someone else to go pick the durian. You just stand one corner and watch. If another durian falls, then you quickly decide if want to change durian. If already bought and too late to change, then forget about the other durian and enjoy your own durian lah... Bottomline, never regret which durian you've finally picked... :)
google yourself...it's fact...
Beijing TongZhou city, >15 projects, average down from RMB26000 psm to RMB 13000 now....Shanghai Jiading & many RMB28000 psm to 16500 psm....tons more across china....they all shown in china CCTV programs....
Spore developers tries to give sweeteners instead of cut price, but many already started...you can go around & try, they will call you day & night to reduce price....
volume down drastically, price down too....
You should have start selling when the US real estate is down. Sell, Sell, Sell all property is going down, invest in share, gold, silver everything except property. Singapore property is going down 40% to 50%......:doh:
Yup. People who are able to hold on will be eventual winner in the long term. Do you see Shaw, FEO sell everything before Lethman. Infact, they are quietly buying them during that period. Investment Portfolio will change with time. But look at the top richiest man in Singapore. How have investment in properties?
have you seen Japan property in last 20 yrs? down 90% all the way....has not recovered yet...this is the matured market destiny.....
same to USA...on the same road now....4 yrs down >50% now...on the way to go....
Spore, HK, Taiwan, Korea, China, UK.....everybody go thru' same economy path...land limited or huge land....human moves the same way.....
have you seen Japan property in last 20 yrs? down 90% all the way....has not recovered yet...this is the matured market destiny.....
same to USA...on the same road now....4 yrs down >50% now...on the way to go....
Spore, HK, Taiwan, Korea, China, UK.....everybody go thru' same economy path...land limited or huge land....human moves the same way.....If every country goes through same economy path, then there will never be lousy investment decisions already. Just have the first country to lead the way and the others just don't repeat those mistakes or if unavoidable mistakes, then just hold back when it comes. No absolute certainty de. Different countries have different dynamics and governances so cannot assume lah! :tsk-tsk:
Why is it still so expensive in Tokyo if it is down by 90%. So, GIC and capitaland in losing money too as they do investment properties in Tokyo too. :doh: No wonder can only retire at 62 and not 55 anymore. No more money to return to us.
have you seen Japan property in last 20 yrs? down 90% all the way....has not recovered yet...this is the matured market destiny.....
same to USA...on the same road now....4 yrs down >50% now...on the way to go....
Spore, HK, Taiwan, Korea, China, UK.....everybody go thru' same economy path...land limited or huge land....human moves the same way.....
have you seen Japan property in last 20 yrs? down 90% all the way....has not recovered yet...this is the matured market destiny.....
same to USA...on the same road now....4 yrs down >50% now...on the way to go....
Spore, HK, Taiwan, Korea, China, UK.....everybody go thru' same economy path...land limited or huge land....human moves the same way.....
Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over 100 million yen (approximately $1 million US dollars) per square meter ($93,000 per square foot). Prices were only marginally less in other large business districts of Tokyo.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble
Singapore property need to appreciate to $93,000 per square foot.
Down 90% $93000psf is $9,300 still cheap Buy,buy,buy :cheers5:
Singapore property so cheap, quick go and buy, buy ,buy:cheers4:
devilplate
31-10-11, 13:45
Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over 100 million yen (approximately $1 million US dollars) per square meter ($93,000 per square foot). Prices were only marginally less in other large business districts of Tokyo.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble
Singapore property need to appreciate to $93,000 per square foot.
Down 90% $93000psf is $9,300 still cheap Buy,buy,buy :cheers5:
Singapore property so cheap, quick go and buy, buy ,buy:cheers4:
wah down 90% still 9kpsf!!! our orchard rd condos only 3k+psf now
BUY BUY BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If every country goes through same economy path, then there will never be lousy investment decisions already. Just have the first country to lead the way and the others just don't repeat those mistakes or if unavoidable mistakes, then just hold back when it comes. No absolute certainty de. Different countries have different dynamics and governances so cannot assume lah! :tsk-tsk:
so has US learnt the Japanese mistake?? NO, everyone is telling them don't repeat, but bernanke just do it.....
like china growth in early 2000, can you stop the china trend at that time?? no way, salary & labour is so cheap & hardworking....but now?? let see...
is spore going to a matured economy like US & Japan footstep?? up to today, YES...will see....
blackjack21trader
31-10-11, 13:55
foreigners if you meet certain critiria, still can buy today...find out yourself....
my taiwanese friends has 80 properties in Shanghai, that was before cooling measures.....now still hold most of them....we laugh at him now, but he bought at very low price....
i know la..you are referring to Lin Rui Yang and Zhang Ting right? Please la..that is because they set up a property company there la.. talk about who bullshitting..
:tongue3:
so has US learnt the Japanese mistake?? NO, everyone is telling them don't repeat, but bernanke just do it.....
like china growth in early 2000, can you stop the china trend at that time?? no way, salary & labour is so cheap & hardworking....but now?? let see...
is spore going to a matured economy like US & Japan footstep?? up to today, YES...will see....
US create the Japanese mistake (Plaza Accord), Bernake is the most intelligence guy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plaza_Accord
blackjack21trader
31-10-11, 14:06
Zhang Ting & Lin Rui Yang & baby:
http://i155.photobucket.com/albums/s297/blackjack21trader/01351_1145544259870023027.jpg
LOL
:tongue3:
Nice baby... cute cute... boy or girl? :o Check out the ring on his finger.. bigger and heavier than my watch man! :cheers1:
ikan bilis
31-10-11, 14:09
about s'pore economy/properties collapsing, there is one and only one reason making me very frightened:
=> you guys are like damn free everyday eat full nothing do speculate on real estate and tcss here....:scared-4:
:D
about s'pore economy/properties collapsing, there is one and only one reason making me very frightened:
=> you guys are like damn free everyday eat full nothing do speculate on real estate and tcss here....:scared-4:
:DWhy tcss frightens you? :D
Why tcss frightens you? :D
coz we all no fulltime regular 9-5 jobs?
devilplate
31-10-11, 14:13
coz we all no fulltime regular 9-5 jobs?
so many bros here jobless also ar?:cool:
Far from retire. Envy you guys retire with large income.:(
so many bros here jobless also ar?:cool:
I'm pretty sure the jobless here that tcss here are all jobless by their personal choice and probably have a sufficient stream of monthly passive income.
I'm no where there yet. Haha. Just very zhou bo at work.
blackjack21trader
31-10-11, 14:19
about s'pore economy/properties collapsing, there is one and only one reason making me very frightened:
=> you guys are like damn free everyday eat full nothing do speculate on real estate and tcss here....:scared-4:
:D
dear brother ikan billis, we are all here to strive to gain financial freedom. Financial freedom means "make money works for you" or use "money to make money" or more crudely.. just laze around and watch your wealth grow la... so, most of the time, we are here in the forum seeking new investment ideas- whether is it Cork or is it Sing Song- does not matter la..everyone share share only mah..otherwise how to progress in our knowledge. the final action lies in your own judement.
Actually chiobu basic has a point too, we must all exercise vigilant in handling our investment la...it is already a known undeniable fact that Euro has a big problem mah.
but i still maintain Lion & Hong Kong properties are the best investment now in the current inflationary & currency devaluation era.
;)
devilplate
31-10-11, 14:24
Far from retire. Envy you guys retire with large income.:(
how much passive income u looking at for u to be semi retire/retire
about s'pore economy/properties collapsing, there is one and only one reason making me very frightened:
=> you guys are like damn free everyday eat full nothing do speculate on real estate and tcss here....:scared-4:
:D
OK, I am going to work now. Time now in France is 0724.
devilplate
31-10-11, 14:25
I'm pretty sure the jobless here that tcss here are all jobless by their personal choice and probably have a sufficient stream of monthly passive income.
I'm no where there yet. Haha. Just very zhou bo at work.
jobless cud also mean many r biz owner here:2cents: ;)
dun work for ppl=jobless mah:p
phantom_opera
31-10-11, 14:26
央行货币政策委员会委员、清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任李稻葵:
对于房地产调控，李稻葵的观点很坚决：“房地产的调控没有回头路，不可能再回到过去那几年每年10%以上的快速上升阶段。”李稻葵认为，中国经济增长速度再往下降，房地产也不会重新回到过去的形势。他认为，中国经济靠卖地、靠房地产发展的模式已经过去了。
至于货币政策，李稻葵表示：“相信未来五到十年都不会有重大放松，会比较谨慎
There is no turning back on price control on Chinese property market ... Wanke already preparing to sell pure MMs as the future revenue generator
We should be happy property market is under control in China, basic made it sounds like end of the world
dear brother ikan billis, we are all here to strive to gain financial freedom. Financial freedom means "make money works for you" or use "money to make money" or more crudely.. just laze around and watch your wealth grow la... so, most of the time, we are here in the forum seeking new investment ideas- whether is it Cork or is it Sing Song- does not matter la..everyone share share only mah..otherwise how to progress in our knowledge. the final action lies in your own judement.
Actually chiobu basic has a point too, we must all exercise vigilant in handling our investment la...it is already a known undeniable fact that Euro has a big problem mah.
but i still maintain Lion & Hong Kong properties are the best investment now in the current inflationary & currency devaluation era.
;)
so chow ah qua blackjack, I know your intention...haha....really no standard...
go back to your thread, why post so worry yet name calling & try to create trouble here.....
market force will decide...Europe, US, China & Japan DEBT will unfold, debt will not go away, only transfer to govt & country...banks or govt or sovereign funds default, result is the same to economy globally, recession, stagflaiton, depression will come, deflation cycle is near, property crash in asia is coming, no fools will want to hold ILLIQUID investment in crisis, time...cannot turn to cash when opportunity is there yet see value diminishing every month....
央行货币政策委员会委员、清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心主任李稻葵:
对于房地产调控，李稻葵的观点很坚决：“房地产的调控没有回头路，不可能再回到过去那几年每年10%以上的快速上升阶段。”李稻葵认为，中国经济增长速度再往下降，房地产也不会重新回到过去的形势。他认为，中国经济靠卖地、靠房地产发展的模式已经过去了。
至于货币政策，李稻葵表示：“相信未来五到十年都不会有重大放松，会比较谨慎
There is no turning back on price control on Chinese property market ... Wanke already preparing to sell pure MMs as the future revenue generator
We should be happy property market is under control in China, basic made it sounds like end of the world
that is why the greedy & gambler china local govt are dumping their lands like no tomorrow now....once developers wake up that no more support from govt, they will dump like SSE down from 6200 to 1600 in 2007 within 6 months, 70-80% gone....
If you deal with chinese before, once they have no money, they will dump at ANY price, really any price.....
phantom_opera
31-10-11, 14:37
that is why the greedy & gambler china local govt are dumping their lands like no tomorrow now....once developers wake up that no more support from govt, they will dump like SSE down from 6200 to 1600 in 2007 within 6 months, 70-80% gone....
If you deal with chinese before, once they have no money, they will dump at ANY price, really any price.....
Good good good, dump until 100psf in Beijing 4th ring and open up to Singaporeans to buy, I want I want :cheers5:
so chow ah qua blackjack, I know your intention...haha....really no standard...
go back to your thread, why post so worry yet name calling & try to create trouble here.....
market force will decide...Europe, US, China & Japan DEBT will unfold, debt will not go away, only transfer to govt & country...banks or govt or sovereign funds default, result is the same to economy globally, recession, stagflaiton, depression will come, deflation cycle is near, property crash in asia is coming, no fools will want to hold ILLIQUID investment in crisis, time...cannot turn to cash when opportunity is there yet see value diminishing every month....
I support u on being cautious. But do u have any suggestion on alternative investment? Deposit in banks also not safe if mkt collapse.
time will tell, no need to be so work up...if you think, will continue to up from here, go ahead & borrow if possible....
Lehman bros bankrupt in 9/2008, 6 months time, 3/2009, spore property price already down 30%....if not bernanke QE1 & China RMB4trillion...you can see once 1 simple Lehman close down, already 30% down in 6 months...
this time is different, is global & country default....print money is not going to work anymore as QE 1 & 2 already failed...china too, very bad experience, will never repeat same mistake again....
Lehman crisis got pty down by 30% meh? gosh, :doh: I can't find those :(
share with me which pte condo down by 20% I am not so greedy 20% enough... especially less than $1mio - 3 bedder :D
blackjack21trader
31-10-11, 14:42
so chow ah qua blackjack, I know your intention...haha....really no standard...
go back to your thread, why post so worry yet name calling & try to create trouble here.....
market force will decide...Europe, US, China & Japan DEBT will unfold, debt will not go away, only transfer to govt & country...banks or govt or sovereign funds default, result is the same to economy globally, recession, stagflaiton, depression will come, deflation cycle is near, property crash in asia is coming, no fools will want to hold ILLIQUID investment in crisis, time...cannot turn to cash when opportunity is there yet see value diminishing every month....
LOL..chiokapeng la.... so you propose to put all cash in bank savings and watch them all erode 10 years later isit ? I stay in this thread cos so many brothers here mah.. so popular la your thread..dun chase me leh..HAHAHAHA..btw, chiobu = pretty woman , it is not name calling la..it is a praise hor....kekekeke
devilplate
31-10-11, 14:44
I support u on being cautious. But do u have any suggestion on alternative investment? Deposit in banks also not safe if mkt collapse.
u r very right:scared-3:
how?!?!?!
mabe all our cash become banana notes??:scared-1:
devilplate
31-10-11, 14:46
Lehman crisis got pty down by 30% meh? gosh, :doh: I can't find those :(
share with me which pte condo down by 20% I am not so greedy 20% enough... especially less than $1mio - 3 bedder :D
parc vera 3bdr only 900k:p
blackjack21trader
31-10-11, 14:47
parc vera 3bdr only 900k:p
OMG...chiobu basic is right ! hahahaha
WOW why like that? IS it truee that PRICE is going down as thread starter says??:) no good la...EC now sells so high already , pte must be higher than EC rite? if pte drops than those who bought EC at $800psf will not vote for P*P liao.... threadstarter are u sure the price will drops so much?:D KBW could u help to look into not only HDB but EC price now as why the price of EC so high as acc to threadstarter the price is going to drop ver very soon...those buy EC will die soon as price drop default bank loan HUH??:D than also triggers subsequent drops which include high pricing DBSS,BTO , resale etc...
I am still young and so got quite a no. of years to go before retirement age. Passive income has to equal my active income. Furthermore, still working to build up good assets.
how much passive income u looking at for u to be semi retire/retire
blackjack21trader
31-10-11, 15:07
ok la ok la.. chiobu basic, i will go back to my thread la.
you deserve credit for making such.a good hot thread. but before i go.. my humble advice to you is that if you had missed the last bull run, you can still consider ECs la. How so ? well, because our leadership will not let the ECs crash without a fight one hor... because majority EC buyers are the middle class which comprise of the major portion of our economy mah. EC may not rocket, but it will grow slow and steady la.
keep posting, it has been fun.heheheheeh ;)
Lehman crisis got pty down by 30% meh? gosh, :doh: I can't find those :(
share with me which pte condo down by 20% I am not so greedy 20% enough... especially less than $1mio - 3 bedder :D
Got..... I know cos I'm living in one right now. :cheers4:
Down from 1300psf to just over 900. D9 woot!
thomastansb
31-10-11, 15:26
No such thing one. In 1997, 2007 high, these have been mentioned many many times. Still, prices crash. No way to tell one. Doesn't mean buy 1M, no one is willing to sell at 900k.
WOW why like that? IS it truee that PRICE is going down as thread starter says??:) no good la...EC now sells so high already , pte must be higher than EC rite? if pte drops than those who bought EC at $800psf will not vote for P*P liao.... threadstarter are u sure the price will drops so much?:D KBW could u help to look into not only HDB but EC price now as why the price of EC so high as acc to threadstarter the price is going to drop ver very soon...those buy EC will die soon as price drop default bank loan HUH??:D than also triggers subsequent drops which include high pricing DBSS,BTO , resale etc...
ok la ok la.. chiobu basic, i will go back to my thread la.
you deserve credit for making such.a good hot thread. but before i go.. my humble advice to you is that if you had missed the last bull run, you can still consider ECs la. How so ? well, because our leadership will not let the ECs crash without a fight one hor... because majority EC buyers are the middle class which comprise of the major portion of our economy mah. EC may not rocket, but it will grow slow and steady la.
keep posting, it has been fun.heheheheeh ;)
low baller chow ahQua blackjack...only fools buy property now, whether is EC or HDB or private or landed....
be patient, wait for developers come to kneel down to you, let them act tough like you now...when time comes, panic, rushing around like headless chicken....zai lah....money only, got skill & knowledge, why worry...snake oil salesman like you, need to knock door, cold call, sell smile, big mouth....blackjack? backside better....:):)
Awesome thread.
Lets cool off.
Anyone know where I can get really good BBQ beef ribs? Those on the bone? Feel like eating that after all this reading.
Got..... I know cos I'm living in one right now. :cheers4:
Down from 1300psf to just over 900. D9 woot!
just 1 lehman bros, within 6 months, property already down 30%...
now comes 1 country or 1 major European bank default.....then >40% easily within 6 months as now no more QE like Lehman bros, beside cut spending & budget, no medicine liao...or die lah....
this one no horse runs.....:):)
:D
Singapore was built up out of nothing except for the hard work of her people.
I believe we will weather through crises gracefully.....
"There is something down the road that we can strive for
We are told no dream's too bold that we can't try for
There's a spirit in the air, it's a feeling we all share
We're going to build a better life, for you and me
We can achieve, we can achieve"
- from Count on me Singapore
so patriotic! :D
Got..... I know cos I'm living in one right now. :cheers4:
Down from 1300psf to just over 900. D9 woot!
okie okie...this round I will be more hardworking!! :cool:
devilplate
31-10-11, 15:35
Riveria 38 launched liao at 11xxpsf and cant sell! Got 3% stamp duty rebate somemore!
Mabe basic is rite:scared-1:
But hor regent residences sell like hotakes at 13xxpsf:beats-me-man:
Riveria 38 is far away from boon keng mrt stn and near expressways.
Riveria 38 launched liao at 11xxpsf and cant sell! Got 3% stamp duty rebate somemore!
Mabe basic is rite:scared-1:
But hor regent residences sell like hotakes at 13xxpsf:beats-me-man:
devilplate
31-10-11, 15:44
Riveria 38 is far away from boon keng mrt stn and near expressways.
I wonder those jus bot beacon heights at 11xxpsf how they gona feel now
Riveria 38 is far away from boon keng mrt stn and near expressways.
Riveria 38 == Turnoff
okie okie...this round I will be more hardworking!! :cool:
wasn't easy! watch like a hawk & pounce like tiger!!!!
since then gone up to 1500+ in less 3 years since bottom.... Really not sustainable don't you think?
Even if you have multiple property which I do - this is madness.
If it sustains your children will never leave home.
But it looks like new launches coming down & resale also beginning to turn over according to propertyguru charts
& where to put money in the meantime is also the biggest headache.
Cannot be class 95fm when investing just as cannot be doom gloom boom only.
One thing basic is right with - property is damned illiquid when the you know what hits the fan, and then the market is then determined by the weakest holder not the strongest....... at which point I shall crack out the cheque book again :cheers3:
The biggest worry of the bosses or investors in China as I have stated, is finding the RIGHT place to park their funds SAFELY without exchange rates and inflation losses affecting their capital lor. The RIGHT place is a place WITH GOOD GOVERNANCE like Singapore or Hong Kong mah...
safely?? read my post, exchange rate down 10-20% is safer or lose 100% to return to china govt is safer?? those chinese, not linked to govt or worry for china goct is really flies....when recession comes to china, they will dump everything oversea to get funds back to china, like what they are doing now in HK....
can enlighten me why they want to get funds back to china? From the ppl that I deal with in China (rich ones) most of them tell me they want to buy pty in Singapore and possibly migrate here. :beats-me-man:
can enlighten me why they want to get funds back to china? From the ppl that I deal with in China (rich ones) most of them tell me they want to buy pty in Singapore and possibly migrate here. :beats-me-man:
answer already in the post yet you only copy part of the post....
recent Wenzhou boss run road, >150 of them, now already spread across china, tenth of thousands of these bosses like S shares & many china companies listed in the world, no more liquidity due to china govt tigthen credit, all cash flow dry up....
moving forward....China internal demand is down if you analyse their data carefully, external demand down drastically if you know how important & how bad is Guangzhou trade fair 2 weeks ago....40% of exhibitors recorded 0 deals, ang mo visitors down 90%, mostly are small trader from asean & middle east, look see look see.....
plus china property price plunged overnight recently....another squeeze from banks, business down, property down....most has to recall asset offshore now...dumping of HK property already started...coming....
Should watch out for Singapore listed company property investment companies in China closely? They will be affected too.
answer already in the post yet you only copy part of the post....
recent Wenzhou boss run road, >150 of them, now already spread across china, tenth of thousands of these bosses like S shares & many china companies listed in the world, no more liquidity due to china govt tigthen credit, all cash flow dry up....
moving forward....China internal demand is down if you analyse their data carefully, external demand down drastically if you know how important & how bad is Guangzhou trade fair 2 weeks ago....40% of exhibitors recorded 0 deals, ang mo visitors down 90%, mostly are small trader from asean & middle east, look see look see.....
plus china property price plunged overnight recently....another squeeze from banks, business down, property down....most has to recall asset offshore now...dumping of HK property already started...coming....
I wonder those jus bot beacon heights at 11xxpsf how they gona feel now
Don't like that leh, i vested in BH. Haha
with S$ going to be fund raising currency like HKD, S$ liquidity will dry up, will drive S$ interest rate like HKD in next few months....
星展：坡元成融資新寵
坡元可望繼港元 (http://ad1.on.cc/phpAdsNew/adclick.php?bannerid=41552)及美元 (http://ad1.on.cc/phpAdsNew/adclick.php?bannerid=41552)外，成為企業融資的貨幣新選擇
SIBOR/SOR of S$ is on the way to rise...
housing loan rate below S$1mil, raise from 1-1.2% in early this yr to 1.8-2.0% now...more to come....
HKD 3 months FD at 2.5% now, housing loan rate at 4% now.....with global debt crisis now, shortage of liquidity is serious, Greece 1 yr bond yield at 150% now, Italy cross 7%.....other PIIGS from 5-15%....borrowing cost will raise with crisis deepening.....
devilplate
31-10-11, 16:54
Don't like that leh, i vested in BH. Haha
U bot cheaper ok mah....gg to TOP soon:cheers4:
phantom_opera
31-10-11, 17:00
with S$ going to be fund raising currency like HKD, S$ liquidity will dry up, will drive S$ interest rate like HKD in next few months....
星展：坡元成融資新寵
坡元可望繼港元 (http://ad1.on.cc/phpAdsNew/adclick.php?bannerid=41552)及美元 (http://ad1.on.cc/phpAdsNew/adclick.php?bannerid=41552)外，成為企業融資的貨幣新選擇
SIBOR/SOR of S$ is on the way to rise...
housing loan rate below S$1mil, raise from 1-1.2% in early this yr to 1.8-2.0% now...more to come....
HKD 3 months FD at 2.5% now, housing loan rate at 4% now.....with global debt crisis now, shortage of liquidity is serious, Greece 1 yr bond yield at 150% now, Italy cross 7%.....other PIIGS from 5-15%....borrowing cost will raise with crisis deepening.....
The more you say, the less credible you become, SIBOR is highly correlated to US Fed rate, not rate in HK/Europe & do you know 10y SGS is trading below 1.8%?
U bot cheaper ok mah....gg to TOP soon:cheers4:
yup. looking forward to TOP. hopefully 1Q '12.
Cheers
devilplate
31-10-11, 17:05
The more you say, the less credible you become, SIBOR is highly correlated to US Fed rate, not rate in HK/Europe & do you know 10y SGS is trading below 1.8%?
But i suspect bank spread will rise to 1.5%
The more you say, the less credible you become, SIBOR is highly correlated to US Fed rate, not rate in HK/Europe & do you know 10y SGS is trading below 1.8%?
read carefully...hosing loan rate at 1.8%, not SIBOR or SGS 10y....
SIBOR depends on liquidity, not tie to FED rate....
HKD ties to USD....but not FED rate....
another is swap rate...SOR.....you better make it clear....
Really good news to Singapore property investors & developers!!! :cheers4:
With China's property prices crashing, and little alternative good investments, the Chinese will shift their money out of China into properties in other countries like Singapore (their preferred choice location other than HK) faster! Watch these to unfold in next 1-2 years! :D
this is what Vanke said 2 days ago....real situation is much worse than Vanke claimed, you know they are developers trying to sell their property......
China’s largest real estate developer believes the country’s property market, a key driver for the economy, has turned and expects conditions to worsen in the coming months as sales prices volumes decline further.
China Vanke, the country’s biggest developer by market share, said government efforts over the past year to rein in soaring prices were having a severe impact on the market and developers were being squeezed aftersales volumes in 14 of the country’s largest cities halved in September from a year earlier.
“We can see a trend of declining sales, especially in the major cities,” Shirley Xiao, executive vice-president at China Vanke, said on a conference call with investors on Tuesday.
another one,
The property bubble in China has finally burst. Denial has turned to anger as Shanghai Homeowners Smash Showroom in Protest Over Falling Prices (http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/10/25/shanghai-homeowners-smash-showroom-in-protest-over-falling-prices/)—
A group of around 400 homeowners in Shanghai demonstrated publicly and damaged a showroom operated by their property developer after the company said it cut prices. Home buyers had wanted to speak with the developer to refund or cancel their contracts but were unsuccessful, according to local media. One report said the price cuts exceeded 25% per square meter.
The local media reports said an unspecified number of people were injured.
Chinese media separately reported that another group of Shanghai homeowners gathered on Saturday to speak with Longfor Properties Co., after it dropped asking prices to 14,000 yuan per square meter from 18,000 yuan per square meter at a residential development in the city’s Jiading district.
The Shanghai property-owner demonstration found little support on China’s Internet, where most still expressed worries that housing prices are still too high after 22% Drop Overnight
The drop from 18,000 to 14,000 yuan is a 22% overnight drop and that is just a down payment on the carnage that is coming…
Regardless of timing, the inevitable “collapse” has now begun. Massive deflation in Shanghai and the accompanying riots sure do look like signs of a collapse to me. I fear the world has been so preoccupied by the endless debt soap operas in Europe—Days of Our Lives, As The World Turns— that they have not noticed what’s happening in China, which may be much more important to the fate of the global economy over the long run. Some Americans have become quite adept at identifying stages in the lifecycle of bubbles http://peakwatch.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83452403c69e20162fc0060bb970d-800wi (http://peakwatch.typepad.com/.a/6a00d83452403c69e20162fc0060bb970d-pi)
But i suspect bank spread will rise to 1.5%
under current crisis time, bank spread of 1.5% is very risky...not enough to cover expenses, don't talk about risk....
US & China are 4%.....
when crisis comes, our local banks in super high risk.....get ready for downgrade, also no bailout from govt, they deserve it to default to what they are doing in last few yrs & now.....
If I am the banks, I would dream that I can increase the spread to 5% regardless of SIBOR or SOR! Dream, dream, dream! Unfortunately the massive money printing of USD, EURO, YEN will ensure that the massive massive liquidity & CASH float around to provide tremendous competition to loan money out and hence depress the spread to historical lows (instead of increasing). Borrowers are not stupid like in the past, accepting whatever board rates Banks stipulate. You want >1% spread? I go another bank lor! :tsk-tsk:
with S$ going to be fund raising currency like HKD, S$ liquidity will dry up, will drive S$ interest rate like HKD in next few months....
星展：坡元成融資新寵
坡元可望繼港元 (http://ad1.on.cc/phpAdsNew/adclick.php?bannerid=41552)及美元 (http://ad1.on.cc/phpAdsNew/adclick.php?bannerid=41552)外，成為企業融資的貨幣新選擇
SIBOR/SOR of S$ is on the way to rise...
housing loan rate below S$1mil, raise from 1-1.2% in early this yr to 1.8-2.0% now...more to come....
HKD 3 months FD at 2.5% now, housing loan rate at 4% now.....with global debt crisis now, shortage of liquidity is serious, Greece 1 yr bond yield at 150% now, Italy cross 7%.....other PIIGS from 5-15%....borrowing cost will raise with crisis deepening.....
Really good news to Singapore property investors & developers!!! :cheers4:
With China's property prices crashing, and little alternative good investments, the Chinese will shift their money out of China into properties in other countries like Singapore (their preferred choice location other than HK) faster! Watch these to unfold in next 1-2 years! :D
read this whole thread, don't anyhow shout from 1 posting.....
with their market crashing 20-50% now, you think they still have money to invest offshore?...they will recall all asset from oversea instead....already started to dump HK property...more to come....:)
devilplate
31-10-11, 17:17
read this whole thread, don't anyhow shout from 1 posting.....
with their market crashing 20-50% now, you think they still have money to invest offshore?...they will recall all asset from oversea instead....already started to dump HK property...more to come....:)
How come feo still can manage to find china buyers for their recent projects:confused:
If I am the banks, I would dream that I can increase the spread to 5% regardless of SIBOR or SOR! Dream, dream, dream! Unfortunately the massive money printing of USD, EURO, YEN will ensure that the massive massive liquidity & CASH float around to provide tremendous competition to loan money out and hence depress the spread to historical lows (instead of increasing). Borrowers are not stupid like in the past, accepting whatever board rates Banks stipulate. You want >1% spread? I go another bank lor! :tsk-tsk:
go ahead...nobody interested in such high risk low return housing loan now...there is 3-4 banks in HK already stop housing loan in general....
read posting earlier to avoid duplication of questions & answer...
Spore SIBOR & SOR on the rise....
below SOR rate already up >1.2% in last 2 months....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SORF3M:IND
read this whole thread, don't anyhow shout from 1 posting.....
with their market crashing 20-50% now, you think they still have money to invest offshore?...they will recall all asset from oversea instead....already started to dump HK property...more to come....:)
Should be cutting loss on the under performing assets
and keeping the gd ones, right.
No point pumping money into a big hole
Why are you trying to make people angry at you?
Just state your view and let the market prove you right or wrong.
read this whole thread, don't anyhow shout from 1 posting.....
with their market crashing 20-50% now, you think they still have money to invest offshore?...they will recall all asset from oversea instead....already started to dump HK property...more to come....:)
How come feo still can manage to find china buyers for their recent projects:confused:
let them claimed what they like...
China Oct holiday Oct 1-7....spore developers rented the whole exhibition hall in Shanghai.....that was a joke when shown in china CCTV, so few visitors, when interview local, they laughed & not interested as they are not familiar with spore property law, situation, china property is not moving at all & global economy is so bad....give ma a free spore holiday, may be I will go.....rental of the hall during that period for weeks is super expensive, burn a big hole....:)
Why are you trying to make people angry at you?
Just state your view and let the market prove you right or wrong.
same question, why ask few times, why can't they read & ask from there, instead old questions keep repeating.....
Where you hear from that they recall asset & cash from overseas back into China? People I know are quickening the flow of money out of China in case the money got jammed in China! You know how the Chinese do business? You know how their businessmen make money and manage their finances? You know they rather run away with the money they amassed than pay up their debtors? Bringing money back into China will sooner or later got confiscated! :doh:
read this whole thread, don't anyhow shout from 1 posting.....
with their market crashing 20-50% now, you think they still have money to invest offshore?...they will recall all asset from oversea instead....already started to dump HK property...more to come....:)
phantom_opera
31-10-11, 17:32
read carefully...hosing loan rate at 1.8%, not SIBOR or SGS 10y....
SIBOR depends on liquidity, not tie to FED rate....
HKD ties to USD....but not FED rate....
another is swap rate...SOR.....you better make it clear....
lol, may be you don't have time to read this:
http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/MASOP016-ed.pdf
In the executive summary section I spoon feed you:
The results of our estimation show that changes in money
supply or factors affecting the demand for money have no effect on the
domestic interbank rate. Only changes in US interest rates or market
expectations of future movements in the exchange rate have a significant
impact on the domestic interbank rate
That's why I keep saying our financial system is flawed and we are doomed to have property bubble ... worse than Hong Kong.
Last I check, my close agent frend did close some units at the exhibition in China
http://a8.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/s720x720/318421_225463824181504_100001536638964_632493_581061869_n.jpg
http://a5.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/s720x720/313677_225465134181373_100001536638964_632539_385900010_n.jpg
Last I checked in Q2 2011 on foreign purchase, nope euhabitat foreign purchase numbers are clearly shown on the 1st red highlight column, 2nd column denotes % of foreign ownership purchase
http://farm7.static.flickr.com/6220/6298305974_aa0445b810_z.jpg
Hmm maybe URA info not accurate, will try to email to ask how they verify purchases are non-locals or possibility that Q3 very few foreign purchase.
Cyberknight
31-10-11, 17:55
go ahead...nobody interested in such high risk low return housing loan now...there is 3-4 banks in HK already stop housing loan in general....
read posting earlier to avoid duplication of questions & answer...
Spore SIBOR & SOR on the rise....
below SOR rate already up >1.2% in last 2 months....
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SORF3M:IND
err but the SOR rate shows leh.. where is the 1.2%
Last Update: 11:38 PM ET, Oct 31
11.596%
VALUE: 0.379 SGD
Association of Banks in Singapore Swap Offer Rate Fixing 3 Month (SORF3M:IND)
+ Add Security to your Watch List (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SORF3M:IND#)
Snapshot
SummaryOne-Year Chart INTERACTIVE CHART (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SORF3M:IND#chart) Value0.38http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=SORF3M%3AIND&img=png Change0.039 (11.596%)Open0.38High0.38Low0.38
Cyberknight
31-10-11, 18:10
It is also the same doomsday scenario that basic have painted that our properties prices might still go up.
$$$ of the rich has not enough investment outlets to go, so putting on properties in singapore might be an option for many fund managers, investors.
buttercarp
31-10-11, 18:27
After so much attention drawn to this thread, I can't help but feeling maybe....maybe only, cos I might be wrong.....
Basic may be doing a project on human psychology or maybe doing a project on how the forummers would react to such a topic posted.
Otherwise why is Basic so free to answer and counteract the posts here?
Today is a monday and Basic is perpetually available to take on all sorts of views.
Basic joined this forum in 2008, it is only now that he/ she has become so intensively involved in the forum!
ikan bilis
31-10-11, 18:36
After so much attention drawn to this thread, I can't help but feeling maybe....maybe only, cos I might be wrong.....
Basic may be doing a project on human psychology or maybe doing a project on how the forummers would react to such a topic posted.
Otherwise why is Basic so free to answer and counteract the posts here?
Today is a monday and Basic is perpetually available to take on all sorts of views.
Basic joined this forum in 2008, it is only now that he/ she has become so intensively involved in the forum!
heya... your mind think too complicated liow...
he kena banned jialat jialat at cna side... i think admin there nailed him down... and may be yesterday too bored so come back to condos'pore.
he had been repeating throwing all those same "points" at cna side and here... over and over again... damn :sleep: liow...
things that are still got bit of fun to me is reading all your reactions.... :D
err but the SOR rate shows leh.. where is the 1.2%
Last Update: 11:38 PM ET, Oct 31
11.596%
VALUE: 0.379 SGD
Association of Banks in Singapore Swap Offer Rate Fixing 3 Month (SORF3M:IND)
+ Add Security to your Watch List (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SORF3M:IND#)
Snapshot
SummaryOne-Year Chart INTERACTIVE CHART (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SORF3M:IND#chart) Value0.38http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/chart?h=200&w=280&range=1y&type=gp_line&cfg=BQuoteComp_10.xml&ticks=SORF3M%3AIND&img=png Change0.039 (11.596%)Open0.38High0.38Low0.38
read carefully what I wrote...up in last 2 months is 1.2%, NOT now is 1.2%....from low of -0.7% in August, till now 0.4%...1.1%...
go for 1 yr instead of 3 months...you will see 1.2%.....
buttercarp
31-10-11, 18:42
heya... your mind think too complicated liow...
he kena banned jialat jialat at cna side... i think admin there nailed him down... and may be yesterday too bored so come back to condos'pore.
he had been repeating throwing all those same "points" at cna side and here... over and over again... damn :sleep: liow...
things that are still got bit of fun to me is reading all your reactions.... :D
Why this basic person so free to answer and rebut?
No need to work, meh?
Perhaps retired?
lol, may be you don't have time to read this:
http://www.mas.gov.sg/resource/publications/staff_papers/MASOP016-ed.pdf
In the executive summary section I spoon feed you:
The results of our estimation show that changes in money
supply or factors affecting the demand for money have no effect on the
domestic interbank rate. Only changes in US interest rates or market
expectations of future movements in the exchange rate have a significant
impact on the domestic interbank rate
That's why I keep saying our financial system is flawed and we are doomed to have property bubble ... worse than Hong Kong.
read carefully, above highlight in RED....changes in US interest rates will affect.....exchange rate movement also will affect SIBOR...
when S$ shortage, demand up, SIBOR will move accordingly....
as I wrote aerlier....
星展：坡元成融資新寵
坡元可望繼港元 (http://ad1.on.cc/phpAdsNew/adclick.php?bannerid=41552)及美元 (http://ad1.on.cc/phpAdsNew/adclick.php?bannerid=41552)外，成為企業融資的貨幣新選
fund raising will chase for S$...S$ will be in shortage like HKD facing same problem now.....
heya... your mind think too complicated liow...
he kena banned jialat jialat at cna side... i think admin there nailed him down... and may be yesterday too bored so come back to condos'pore.
he had been repeating throwing all those same "points" at cna side and here... over and over again... damn :sleep: liow...
things that are still got bit of fun to me is reading all your reactions.... :D
beside shouting personal attack, what else you know?? nothing....:):)
After so much attention drawn to this thread, I can't help but feeling maybe....maybe only, cos I might be wrong.....
Basic may be doing a project on human psychology or maybe doing a project on how the forummers would react to such a topic posted.
Otherwise why is Basic so free to answer and counteract the posts here?
Today is a monday and Basic is perpetually available to take on all sorts of views.
Basic joined this forum in 2008, it is only now that he/ she has become so intensively involved in the forum!
go & read the content, not deal with personal....
you think a psychology person can answer so many economy, finance, property, china, HK, Spore,Europe, US...whole world,what is happening in the past & now??....
stay away, don't waste time & create problems.....:):)
ikan bilis
31-10-11, 18:52
Why this basic person so free to answer and rebut?
No need to work, meh?
Perhaps retired?
don't know.... you go ask him lah!!... ;)
actually got few of the guys there including me do not bother to talk to him... once started some argument... never ends 1... he will come out with some whatever reasons and scolded you some more to make his points sound more "convincing"... :beats-me-man: :scared-1:
another guy who keep repeating throwing all those same "points" at cna side (and here) is blackjack21trader...
:banghead:
beside shouting personal attack, what else you know?? nothing....:):)
Hi Basic, Nice to see you on this forum, been missing you in CNA. Please continue with your views and it is up to the rest to decide whether to buy or not, anyway it is their money...
You are right on Ikan, cant give any constructive views and just attack you like in CNA...
keep it up.:cheers4:
Hi Basic, Nice to see you on this forum, been missing you in CNA. Please continue with your views and it is up to the rest to decide whether to buy or not, anyway it is their money...
You are right on Ikan, cant give any constructive views and just attack you like in CNA...
keep it up.:cheers4:
thanks...
these people just can't focus in the topics, discuss...must badmouth you to look bad, then what you said is not credible....
I have never bothered of such forumers & postings.....but must get all forumers here to know their personality & behviour.....
read the content, agree or not, why, come out with fact & figure....we can learn together....
really time will tell....whatever will be will be....not even our govt can change anything now...this is a global trend & cycle....a historical one....
morgan stanley expect china to hard landing....up to you to believe...just for information....
If China GDP really down to 5% next yr, then china property will down 40-50% across china...this is much bigger crisis than Euro debt crisis....now they teach you how to hedge for this crisis....
china export definitely down in next 3-4 quarters...same to internal demand...only how bad it is....If China GDP fall to 8-8.2% in next quarter Q4, then highly correct liao......
Morgan Stanley: A slowdown in Chinese GDP growth to sub-5% for at least four quarters, driven by domestic factors, not external events.
October 31st, 2011
With tonight’s multi-year record CNY fixing and trillions being flushed at maintaining an arbitrary JPY line in the sand, it seems appropriate to re-consider how to hedge a China hard landing and what probabilities various asset classes are assigning to it occurring. While many are pointing to what seems an entirely capricious level of 79.20 JPY to the USD as the ‘new normal’ being defended, we were curious at the strange coincidence that the CNYJPY cross implied by tonight’s CNY fixing and the 79.2 JPY was exactly the average CNYJPY level during the QE2 period. It seems the Japanese are hedging their tail-risk against the Chinese and a recent note by Morgan Stanley points to how various asset class traders might consider hedging their own version of a hard-landing scenario and notably they agree with us (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/attention-finally-turns-two-ultimate-backstoppers-world-germany-and-china) that China sovereign CDS remains among the ‘best’ hedge
This thread is going downhill very fast.:doh:
just like property prices...:D :D :D
Tot u just sold ur far far east condo?:confused:
yup mine too far east and 99 years...aiming FH next to 4th uni...get the picture....:D
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Asia/Story/STIStory_729066.html
China's rich seek to emigrate for better life: Survey
Published on Oct 31, 2011
BEIJING (REUTERS) - Nearly half of Chinese worth more than 10 million yuan (S$2 million) have mulled over emigrating, mainly to seek better opportunities for their children's education, results of a new survey showed.
According to a survey released at the weekend by the Hurun Report, which also publishes an annual China rich list, and Bank of China, 46 per cent of the 980 millionaires surveyed are considering leaving China.
Fourteen per cent have either emigrated or applied, said the survey, which was done in 18 Chinese cities from May to September this year, and said 60 per cent want to leave to seek a better education for their children.
China's leaders have pinned the legitimacy of one-party rule on delivering quick economic growth and higher standards of living to spread more widely among the population.
basic - i agree with your view...it has already started!! :scared-1:
phantom_opera
31-10-11, 19:59
Mid floor tanah merah hdb 5r sold 80k cov at 630k
basic - i agree with your view...it has already started!! :scared-1:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/31/us-china-property-idUSTRE79U1N620111031
(Reuters) - China thought it had a good plan: Bring down soaring house prices so millions of frustrated wage-earning families can afford new homes, and social harmony will follow.
However, furious protests by existing homeowners against price-cuts on new developments show that the road to real estate equilibrium is a rocky one...
Think about this, where are some china people buying properties overseas and why are some making a rukus following the herd buying so many properties in their homeland and smashing showrooms. Why do developers IN China are facing this problem which is started by China gov to bring down prices
So where is my
Woodsville 28 for 750psf
The Arte for 850psf
Caspian for 580psf
The Quartz for 500psf
Park Infinia for $950 psf
Residences @ Evelyn for $1,225 psf
Newton One for $1,250 psf
Luxus Hills inter-terrace for 1.6mil
Can find meh? :beats-me-man:
Cyberknight
31-10-11, 20:19
So where is my
Woodsville 28 for 750psf
The Arte for 850psf
Caspian for 580psf
The Quartz for 500psf
Park Infinia for $950 psf
Residences @ Evelyn for $1,225 psf
Newton One for $1,250 psf
Luxus Hills inter-terrace for 1.6mil
Can find meh? :beats-me-man:
Yeah lor. I am also looking around for such px.. But cannot find leh..
buttercarp
31-10-11, 20:28
So where is my
Woodsville 28 for 750psf
The Arte for 850psf
Caspian for 580psf
The Quartz for 500psf
Park Infinia for $950 psf
Residences @ Evelyn for $1,225 psf
Newton One for $1,250 psf
Luxus Hills inter-terrace for 1.6mil
Can find meh? :beats-me-man:
Latest Luxus Hills transaction for inter terrace was 2.5 mil:doh:.
According to the ura website it is in Seletar Green View, which means it should be the earlier phase, either 1 or 2.
Latest Luxus Hills transaction for inter terrace was 2.5 mil:doh:.
According to the ura website it is in Seletar Green View, which means it should be the earlier phase, either 1 or 2.Can try for 2.2mil. Try only! :D
buttercarp
31-10-11, 20:32
go & read the content, not deal with personal....
you think a psychology person can answer so many economy, finance, property, china, HK, Spore,Europe, US...whole world,what is happening in the past & now??....
stay away, don't waste time & create problems.....:):)
How to stay away when you have created such an entertaining thread?
How not to waste time when reading your thread?
Create problems...... take care of yourself, getting defensive and angry can create health problems.
buttercarp
31-10-11, 20:35
Can try for 2.2mil. Try only! :D
Maybe can try and psycho the seller by showing him what Basic has predicted.....then maybe the seller will want to quickly sell?:D
devilplate sell ur 8@W dual key unit to me at 700k :D
So where is my
Woodsville 28 for 750psf
The Arte for 850psf
Caspian for 580psf
The Quartz for 500psf
Park Infinia for $950 psf
Residences @ Evelyn for $1,225 psf
Newton One for $1,250 psf
Luxus Hills inter-terrace for 1.6mil
Can find meh? :beats-me-man:
Don't even need the price to be that low. Anyone here has a unit at Residences @ Evelyn, high floor, 2 bedder, facing north willing to sell at $1,800 psf? My friend will take it! Cheque can be issued rightaway.
phantom_opera
31-10-11, 21:24
好热闹
不过没完没了
其实，这个瓜是有些料
It just proves that many ppl missed the boat and wait until neck long long
It just proves that many ppl missed the boat and wait until neck long long
this is the most stupid kind of comment & posting....
why this thread is popular is because tons of panic holders, worry & stressful...
anyway, stop all these personal & useless comment, focus on he discussion & contribution...no more such rubbish.....
How to stay away when you have created such an entertaining thread?
How not to waste time when reading your thread?
Create problems...... take care of yourself, getting defensive and angry can create health problems.
worry for yourself....property up another 5000% or down 99%...I don't care...
now is the right time for this topic, 12 months later, all will agree...
wait patiently for the nailing event to come....spore property takes 15 yrs tocome back to this level, so what is another half or 1 yr.....
don't be personal again....discuss on the topic.....:)
好热闹
不过没完没了
其实，这个瓜是有些料是有料，问题是他（她）收集的全是消极的废料！
It looks more like a debate than a discussion thread.:cool:
"永不低头", ye...:cheers4: 不要太激动, 小心身体噢!!
Why he so "kan cheong" to tell ppl that ppty is coming down, what is there to do with him, investors will know how to judge by themselves. Looks like he is hoping that more ppl will "throw" their ppty out, if that's the case, then the ppty price will really come down liow loh.:scared-3:
worry for yourself....property up another 5000% or down 99%...I don't care...
now is the right time for this topic, 12 months later, all will agree...
wait patiently for the nailing event to come....spore property takes 15 yrs tocome back to this level, so what is another half or 1 yr.....
don't be personal again....discuss on the topic.....:)who is personal again?
Don't even need the price to be that low. Anyone here has a unit at Residences @ Evelyn, high floor, 2 bedder, facing north willing to sell at $1,800 psf? My friend will take it! Cheque can be issued rightaway.
no need to come here to buy or sell....go to ST or propertyguru or look for property agent....10% below last transacted price, can close...if not wait...this thread not interested with any price now or yesterday...1 yr from now, should be a good time....if you can wait another 1-2 more yrs, will be even better.....
who is personal again?
bo liao....
don't be personal....if not interested to discuss, then don't post personal....
jonathann80
31-10-11, 21:47
Who let the dogs out? Woof Woof Woof..:santana:
It looks more like a debate than a discussion thread.:cool:
"永不低头", ye...:cheers4: 不要太激动, 小心身体噢!!
Why he so "kan cheong" to tell ppl that ppty is coming down, what is there to do with him, investors will know how to judge by themselves. Looks like he is hoping that more ppl will "throw" their ppty out, if that's the case, then the ppty price will really come down liow loh.:scared-3:
nobody care about property price today...nobody can influence the market...talk down or talk up....
market force will decide...your choice, be responsible to your own decision....
It is amazing that so many contributors to this topics but no value added.
At the end of the day sellers (including developers) want to sell high high and buyers want to buy low low. It is just a betting or psychology game.
Developers will always have a upperhand. They have deep pockets to play.
I have not seen once where developer kowtow (sell at lost) to buyers to buy in Sgp at least but poor buyers kowtow to the bank
The forumers here can be buyers or sellers - all have self interest.
This piece of news only bring delight to the group that has been waiting like buaya to buy, the rest will just hope for the best and sit thight if tsunami were to come. How much drop or up and when will it occurs is anybodys' guess. Not within our control..:D :D Even my so-called expert agent friend went bankrupt in the 97 crisis.
Who let the dogs out? Woof Woof Woof..:santana:
go back to cage....:)
jonathann80
31-10-11, 21:51
go back to cage....:)
Yup pls do so. But i command you to continue to post and entertain us. Now go do that. Good one.
To basic, u mentionEd SOR went up to 1.2% recently ? When was it ? I'm curious.
Thanks.
Very free leh, answer almost every questions immediately, keep it up.:D
bo liao....
don't be personal....if not interested to discuss, then don't post personal....discuss rubbish with you ah? not interested leh! I only wanted to kekekee with you lah... kekeke...
哎哟！
我看他呀
不服输
输不起
怎么办呢?
只好硬硬地撑下去
是可笑？可悲或是可怜？
智者智也
Yup pls do so. But i command you to continue to post and entertain us. Now go do that. Good one.
I log out now....watching movie...you can go to poo, then sleep....
哎哟！
我看他呀
不服输
输不起
怎么办呢?
只好硬硬地撑下去
是可笑？可悲或是可怜？
智者智也
"Gong bua ti" (in Hokkien):doh:
actually, i'm very interested in those 1000-2000psf that have corrected 10% from the highest few transactions. i'm more than happy if someone can point those listings out, because i'm probably looking at the wrong development.
To basic, u mentionEd SOR went up to 1.2% recently ? When was it ? I'm curious.
Thanks.
in one of his post, Basic meant by 1.2%, not up to 1.2%. from negative to positive, the up is about 1.1%.
just FYI.
it would be so interesting to look back at this thread on 31/10/2012.....;)
phantom_opera
31-10-11, 22:42
Sibor still flat at .37, he chose to highlight sor instead, very good at presenting whatever favorable to his bearish view by quoting news, numbers etc but he failed to consider what if he is wrong
thomastansb
31-10-11, 22:58
Mine was renewed last week at 0.35%. 3M SOR.
To basic, u mentionEd SOR went up to 1.2% recently ? When was it ? I'm curious.
Thanks.
it would be so interesting to look back at this thread on 31/10/2012.....;)
Shouldn't it already be 'interesting' since it's 2011 and back in 2008 he said prices will correct 40% in 2 years time?
flagship74
31-10-11, 23:19
worry for yourself....property up another 5000% or down 99%...I don't care...
now is the right time for this topic, 12 months later, all will agree...
wait patiently for the nailing event to come....spore property takes 15 yrs tocome back to this level, so what is another half or 1 yr.....
don't be personal again....discuss on the topic.....:)
Ah boy ar..it about time for your medicine b4 bedtime lor..come come...come to Mama...:scared-5:
no need to come here to buy or sell....go to ST or propertyguru or look for property agent....10% below last transacted price, can close...if not wait...this thread not interested with any price now or yesterday...1 yr from now, should be a good time....if you can wait another 1-2 more yrs, will be even better.....
That's the problem. Some situation cannot wait means cannot wait. Consequences can be our kids cannot go to a school we want to put him in, or we have to start paying rent to stay near a place when we can put the money in for an apartment. People refuse to sell us at $1,850psf means they refuse to sell unless he has his price. So at the end of the day, your big talk cannot work at all even though I am a genuine buyer offering such a high price.
The other day i was at Residences @ Evelyn and saw an Aston Martin parked there. The car alone costs half a million. I wonder when panic sale will really happen for these condos. If they need to sell, I don't mind going for their 2-year old Z4 or Audi TT at bargain price first. No need for them to sell their house yet!
Shouldn't it already be 'interesting' since it's 2011 and back in 2008 he said prices will correct 40% in 2 years time?
please re-read his posts.
his post was:
you should sell away your house now, buy back in 2 yrs time at 40% discount of today's price.
You will be regreted & downgraded as property is going to surge in few months time.
basic was responding to hype-hype comments:
Property is falling and 40% downside in 2 years time assured. People trying to talk up the market but to no avail. It is sliding and sliding. Figures show. Wait a year and get bargain prices. Don't be caught with negative equity.
Basic was being sarcastic to hype-hype.
in fact, Basic was predicting that property prices were going to surge in few months time.
all the exchanges in this thread:
http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?p=19321#post19321
Check out for yourselves.
he posted this on May30, 2008.
Sold 2 last Sept.
The rest on 8% rental yield now.
Look around, ready to buy.
so basically he sold in Sept 2007.
so he sold before the crash of 2008 and predicted the boom in prices of 2009. Isn't Basic amazing :not-worthy::not-worthy::not-worthy:.
Shouldn't it already be 'interesting' since it's 2011 and back in 2008 he said prices will correct 40% in 2 years time?
I totally agree with your conclusion.... He sold late 2008... Hoping prices will drop.... If you look at his post, at first he said that forummers are making sellers panic, then later he mentioned that prices will drop 40%.... He must have sold just about that time....
Once sold he became an extreme bear and got caught big time....
I think if prices drop 5-10% must buy Liao..... Look at the stock market...nback to 12k.... How to drop.....
shanghai mayor just said shanghai property price is still too high, more downside to go....
china property cooling measures will not be removed in next 2 yrs....
many failed businessman across china now like Wenzhou bosses, they will have to dispose off their property at any price to raise funds for cash flow...
many property agents in shanghai closed shop recently due to very bad business & no transaction....many has not cloased any deals in last 2 months, some disclosed developers actually started to down price since July, but response still bad after cutting price, that is why recent cut is all go for bigger cut like 20-40%....
many developers has to pay off debt before end of the yr to meet sales target, so revenue is more important than price for some developers....many can't even settle their yr end debt now, so more dumping is unavoidable....
after I started this thread yesterday, then I realised so many sporean are still so naive & do not know what is happening around the world today...we are at such a critical junction of global economy collapsed yet most seem like nothing going on....from Europe to US to Asia, many already breaking yet, many are totally unaware...surprised to me....many are not interested to discuss what is going on, how Euro raise 1trillion EFSF fund, detailed in implementaiton, what is going to happen in next 2 days in Portugal or Italy or G20 or US going to downgrade again in 3 weeks time plus debt limit hit again, needs approval to print etc.....
mostly only interested what to invest now? interest is too low, force to take high risk to invest but cannot see the risk head on....so low interest, force to spend to invest...even crisis is here nobody save for raining day due to low rate....property already plant in core of most people, will never come down, media data is forever up....lehman bros just happened 3 yrs ago, everybody already forgotten...
come back to this forum, then I realised so many still holding tight tight to their property yet want to buy more...of course these people do not wish to see proerty come down....anyway, let time decide, no point to start all personal attack, I will not start but anyone start, I will reply accordingly....
Ah boy ar..it about time for your medicine b4 bedtime lor..come come...come to Mama...:scared-5:
only fool go for personal....no view then keep mouth shut....:)
I totally agree with your conclusion.... He sold late 2008... Hoping prices will drop.... If you look at his post, at first he said that forummers are making sellers panic, then later he mentioned that prices will drop 40%.... He must have sold just about that time....
Once sold he became an extreme bear and got caught big time....
I think if prices drop 5-10% must buy Liao..... Look at the stock market...nback to 12k.... How to drop.....
I already said >10x, why people still so interested in my personal thing....property up another 5000% or down 99% from here, no impact to me...just want to discuss what is coming, use your skill, information & knowledge....analyse & discuss....
if market going to down like what I said >50% in next 2-3 yrs, whack me down, badmouth my credibilty, it will still down, whatever will be wiil be...
these only shown you people are real worry & panic & concern about what I am saying because of what is going on in the world today.....
don't worry, follow your thought...if this risk is too big for you to swallow, you can't sleep or eat after hearing all these, then you over-commit, then better to take some action now.....must be risk-aversed, zai zai wan....
That's the problem. Some situation cannot wait means cannot wait. Consequences can be our kids cannot go to a school we want to put him in, or we have to start paying rent to stay near a place when we can put the money in for an apartment. People refuse to sell us at $1,850psf means they refuse to sell unless he has his price. So at the end of the day, your big talk cannot work at all even though I am a genuine buyer offering such a high price.
The other day i was at Residences @ Evelyn and saw an Aston Martin parked there. The car alone costs half a million. I wonder when panic sale will really happen for these condos. If they need to sell, I don't mind going for their 2-year old Z4 or Audi TT at bargain price first. No need for them to sell their house yet!
ok, market will not up or down because of your or my posting here...market will move according to market force....too many factors.....
time will tell....no worry....people sell you or not...only when critical time like those Wenzhou bosses >150 of them bankrupt, tenth of thousands across china or Euro 17 countries when they are panic to beg for money from whoever got money or when someone suddenly kena retrenched, pay cut or cash flow broken or....then talk....other than that, life moves on for everybody...this is the mentality here....only see happen, then is happen...other than that, talk is cheap..
knowledge & skill are no value, ok?.....:):)
This guy is so energetic:cool:
From his posts, he is not discussing. He is giving us a warning and whoever think otherwise are all fools
This guy is so energetic:cool:
From his posts, he is not discussing. He is giving us a warning and whoever think otherwise are all fools
I just log in 20 mins ago to reply...
If I not discussing, I provide so much information for what..
so what guy are you??...
many said I am defensive...actually are those holding tight tight to their property, attacking this thread are being very defensive.....
When you bought a house, you must be ready, if you lose everything, you are still ok....if can't eat or sleep because price starts to come down, then you have problems....
ok, last post for tonight....log in again tomorrow.....
after I started this thread yesterday, then I realised so many sporean are still so naive & do not know what is happening around the world today...we are at such a critical junction of global economy collapsed yet most seem like nothing going on....from Europe to US to Asia, many already breaking yet, many are totally unaware...surprised to me....many are not interested to discuss what is going on, how Euro raise 1trillion EFSF fund, detailed in implementaiton, what is going to happen in next 2 days in Portugal or Italy or G20 or US going to downgrade again in 3 weeks time plus debt limit hit again, needs approval to print etc.....
mostly only interested what to invest now? interest is too low, force to take high risk to invest but cannot see the risk head on....so low interest, force to spend to invest...even crisis is here nobody save for raining day due to low rate....property already plant in core of most people, will never come down, media data is forever up....lehman bros just happened 3 yrs ago, everybody already forgotten...
come back to this forum, then I realised so many still holding tight tight to their property yet want to buy more...of course these people do not wish to see proerty come down....anyway, let time decide, no point to start all personal attack, I will not start but anyone start, I will reply accordingly....
So what if a global economy meltdown really happens? Are you so insecure about your own ability to get back up even if you receive a setback?
Life is more than just chasing some numbers. It will do you good to read some Locke, Hume, Sartre and Nietzsche.
I totally agree with your conclusion.... He sold late 2008... Hoping prices will drop.... If you look at his post, at first he said that forummers are making sellers panic, then later he mentioned that prices will drop 40%.... He must have sold just about that time....
......
how the hell did you come to that conclusion?
please reread his posts. English language is not that hard to understand.
people only see what they want to see.
devilplate
01-11-11, 01:11
how the hell did you come to that conclusion?
please reread his posts. English language is not that hard to understand.
people only see what they want to see.
In 08, he said he sold 2 in 07.....but do u believe wat he say? If he say he sold in 07 den prolly more credible...and if read correctly, he said in 08 tat px will not crash and dun nid to sell.....but 09 really did crash.....:beats-me-man:
In 08, he said he sold 2 in 07.....but do u believe wat he say? If he say he sold in 07 den prolly more credible...and if read correctly, he said in 08 tat px will not crash and dun nid to sell.....but 09 really did crash.....:beats-me-man:
cannot verify whether he/she told the truth about selling 2 in Sept 2007.
His/her May'08 post: he/she is predicting price will go up soon and he/she is shopping around for more properties.
he/she was being sarcastic to hype-hype. If Hype-hype really believe will drop, then he should sell now and buy later.
he/she was saying that prices would pick up in a few months time (from his/her May'08 posts), which infact did pick up in early 2009. (only a few months away from 2008-may).
In no way, did Basic predicted that price will drop 2 years down from 2008.
devilplate
01-11-11, 01:33
cannot verify whether he/she told the truth about selling 2 in Sept 2007.
His/her May'08 post: he/she is predicting price will go up soon and he/she is shopping around for more properties.
he/she was being sarcastic to hype-hype. If Hype-hype really believe will drop, then he should sell now and buy later.
he/she was saying that prices would pick up in a few months time (from his/her May'08 posts), which infact did pick up in early 2009. (only a few months away from 2008-may).
In no way, did Basic predicted that price will drop 2 years down from 2008.
No la....in may08, shd really sell all and buy back few mths later.....i grab all my firesales between feb09 to may09, den july all sellers adjusted their px
I am very sure of the timing bcoz i was waiting for durians to drop during tat period.....1yrs plus hibernating.....
So what if a global economy meltdown really happens? Are you so insecure about your own ability to get back up even if you receive a setback?
Life is more than just chasing some numbers. It will do you good to read some Locke, Hume, Sartre and Nietzsche.
Reading and comprehension are 2 different animals. you sure you understand what those authors are trying to convey? if you can even misintepret Basic's comments made in 2008. :doh:
Reading and comprehension are 2 different animals. you sure you understand what those authors are trying to convey? if you can even misintepret Basic's comments made in 2008. :doh:
You can interpret it as him/her being sarcastic. My understanding from what's written is that his/her reply's an encouragement to sell off one's properties now because prices will drop and that he/she has already done so himself/herself.
If anything, blame it on his/her poor grammar. I would have circled that sentence with a big red circle and plaster multiple ???? next to it if this was something written in an essay and i was grading it.
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/latest/story/0,4574,462841,00.html?
October 31, 2011, 11.42 pm (Singapore time)
Luxury London homes best bargain for Chinese buyers
LONDON - Chinese luxury home buyers are leading a legion of cash-rich non-UK investors in search of upmarket London homes, with demand driven by currency exchange rates that produce discounts of up to a quarter on purchase prices, research shows.
Property agency Knight Frank said Chinese buyers benefited from a 24 per cent purchasing power discount based on the yuan-sterling forex rate between the peak of the prime London housing market in March 2008 and Oct 27. Singaporean buyers got a 22 per cent benefit, while Malaysians received 18 per cent.
"The favourable exchange rate is why so many buyers from the Far East are purchasing London homes, not to live in but as rental investments," said Tim Wright, a partner at Knight Frank.
Between March 2008 and September this year prime central London home prices rose by 5.2 percent, Knight Frank said.
Buyers with US dollars received a 16 per cent discount, while those with euros received a 3.4 per cent benefit.
The yuan, the Singapore dollar and the Malaysian ringgit are all tightly controlled against the greenback, which has outperformed sterling over the past three years and is one of the most sought-after currencies because of its perceived safe haven characteristics in times of economic uncertainty.
Knight Frank categorises prime properties as those worth more than 2 million pounds (US$3.2 million). About 55 per cent of those transacted were bought by foreign buyers in the year to end-September, from 49 per cent a year earlier, said Simon Gammon, managing partner at Knight Frank Finance.
Overseas buyers spent about 4.3 billion pounds on prime property across the whole of London over the last 12 months.
"Many foreign multi-millionaires are landing in the country and walking into estate agents on spec," Mr Gammon said.
"They don't have a lawyer or any tax advice but want a house in London they may have seen on the internet," he told Reuters.
About 80 per cent of buyers at London's super-luxury One Hyde Park development, in Knightsbridge near Harrods, were from overseas said Nick Candy, chief executive of Candy and Candy, which is development manager on the one billion-pound scheme where flats cost 7-136 million pounds.
"Prime central London residential is like the gold reserve of real estate," he told Reuters.
The high level of overseas demand was changing the makeup of London's luxury home market, said Yolande Barnes, director of residential research at property consultant Savills.
"The billionaires have moved into Mayfair and Belgravia. The multi-millionaires have moved into Chelsea and Notting Hill and the millionaires have moved into Wandsworth," she said, noting foreign buyers held on to property for longer.
That meant it was increasingly difficult to buy luxury homes in some areas, she said. For every 100 foreign sellers there were 158 foreign buyers, while for every 100 UK sellers there were only 70 UK buyers, Savills figures showed.
The rise of foreign buyers as a dominant force in the market has been matched by the growing presence of overseas banks with balance sheets that enable them to beat the finance terms offered by their more financially hamstrung UK rivals.
Royal Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bank and Chinese, Singaporean and Indian banks lend at rates as low as 125 basis points (bps) over LIBOR for top clients, one mortgage expert said.
By contrast, UK-based lenders such as Lloyds Banking Group's private bank or RBS' Coutts arm were off the pace with margins of 200 bps-plus, he said.
Royal Bank of Canada has increased the size of its UK mortgage book eightfold since 2007 to about US$800 million and plans to double it over the next several years, Michael Kay, head of credit at RBC Wealth Management, told Reuters. -- REUTERS
This is a super hot thread. 24 hrs postings... and our dear friend Basic must be so concerned for us that he is not working but posting round the clock... Impressive! :cheers3:
The property bull market will eventually be over for this cycle, but right at the moment when this guy throw in the towel and starts to buy one.
This is a super hot thread. 24 hrs postings... and our dear friend Basic must be so concerned for us that he is not working but posting round the clock... Impressive! :cheers3:
I just spent 1 day here, only few hrs yesterday, posted 100+, compared to your 4000+ posting, few yrs here....yet you can write such posting & comment....really good in words....what intention? ...
whatever, don't help the topic, wasting time post.....:):)
Reading and comprehension are 2 different animals. you sure you understand what those authors are trying to convey? if you can even misintepret Basic's comments made in 2008. :doh:
thanks, hopeful....at least a sensible person....
they can keep speculating what I did since 2007...create whatever story they like, tell lies or badmouth...let it be, just reflect on them...
I already gave my explanation, they come back with same thing again...
I posted fact, figure, information & analysis......they are not interested...understand their feeling, they hold property, I said price come down, they don't like it, agree to disagree, then rely on personal attack?..
they are defensive to their holding, so can only say good thing about property here??.....
let put down our view with reason & support....time will tell....
The property bull market will eventually be over for this cycle, but right at the moment when this guy throw in the towel and starts to buy one.
only fool buy property now....I will not buy any property in next 2 yrs, even 3 yrs....whether is up or down, money is no problem, believe in your homework, skill & knowledge....do the right thing, let market be the judge....property only...stock, gold, commodity, currency, metal,oil...can also discuss if interested....:)
1 down due to Euro debt crisis...tons will come in next 2-3 yrs...>50% of Europe banks will bankrupt in next 2-3 yrs...50% of continental cars you see today, may disappear in 3 yrs time....not joking...
Now is US firm bankrupt due to Euro crisis....many asian firms too will face same problem & bankrupt....jobless, retrenchment, pay cut....will be here in time to come....wait patiently......
MF Global is first big US victim of Europe crisis
October 31, 2011 4:53 PM ET
By DANIEL WAGNER
WASHINGTON (AP) - The European debt crisis has claimed its first big casualty on Wall Street, a securities firm run by former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine.
MF Global Holdings Ltd., which Corzine has headed since early last year, filed for bankruptcy protection Monday. Concerns about the company's holdings of European debt caused business partners to pull back last week, leading to a severe cash crunch, the company said in papers filed in federal bankruptcy court.
Corzine, the former head of investment banking giant Goldman Sachs Group Inc., oversaw MF Global as it amassed $6 billion in debt issued by financially strapped European countries such as Italy, Spain and Portugal. Their bonds paid bigger returns than U.S. Treasury debt because bond investors believed that they were more likely to default.
That bet eventually doomed the company. Its regulator complained last month that it was overvaluing European debt, forcing it to raise more money, according to papers filed with U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York. Last week, MF Global reported its biggest ever quarterly loss.
Welcome back. Day 2! :):)
BBC news below....more bad times ahead, it's much worse than 1997, 2008/9....this is a global one, all the debt gloablly already super heavy burden to world economy....seriously just need 1 STRAW to kill a camel.....
time will come, not today or tommorrow.....In 9/2008, 1 day before lehman bros bankrupt, they still announce to the world they are healthy & fit...nobody will tell you until it happens....same to govt, the only tell good thing, they want stability, no LKY hard truth on future, only past....
anyway....read for fun, if not interested, ignore....
Warning issued from ILO and OECD economic groups that the world is about to start an even deeper recession, the deepest since the Great Depression, or in other words, Great Depression II:
October 31st, 2011
Tweet (http://twitter.com/share)
by BBC News (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15519699)
The ILO says the employment situation is already “precarious” around the world
The global economy is on the verge of a new and deeper jobs recession that may ignite social unrest, the International Labour Organization (ILO) has warned.
It will take at least five years for employment in advanced economies to return to pre-crisis levels, it said.
I just spent 1 day here, only few hrs yesterday, posted 100+, compared to your 4000+ posting, few yrs here....yet you can write such posting & comment....really good in words....what intention? ...
whatever, don't help the topic, wasting time post.....:):)Must every post be filled with intentions? No special intention. Just tcss! I took 3 years (1095 days) to clock 4008 posts = 3.7 posts a day on average. You clocked 120+ posts in one day! :cheers4:
wen jiabao said cooling measures to be continue, no loosen of policy....
shanghai developers cut price by >30%....
Barclay bank, negative asset case in HK up 3000% in last 3 months, bank valuation on property down 13%, more to come.....
港股乾跌
正當投資 (http://ad1.on.cc/phpAdsNew/adclick.php?bannerid=41552)者憧憬中央會減低調控力度之際，國務院總理溫家寶不會放寬內地房調的言論，內銀及內房股再度受壓
滬樓盤開價低逾三成
上周末於上海偏遠的金山區出現了今年以來上海樓市開盤報價最低的樓盤，均價僅為6,500元人民幣一平方米，較同區項目整體均價低三成以上。
巴克萊：港樓價看跌
第三季本港負資產宗數大增逾30倍，但負資產數字反映本港樓價已從六月高位下跌最少一成，而估計銀行對於新做按揭樓宇的估價亦相應調低逾13%，清晰地顯示了未來樓價會繼續下跌。
jonathann80
01-11-11, 08:25
Glad you are.back our obedient wuss. Now we command you to keep posting for.the whole of.November to entertain us. Go. Get it done or face e warth of punishment. Go go go.
Basic, can point out a few quality development already down 10% from its peak. Minus away sentosa that speculative island. That would be most helpful. Macro factors I am already following.
only fool buy property now....I will not buy any property in next 2 yrs, even 3 yrs....whether is up or down, money is no problem, believe in your homework, skill & knowledge....do the right thing, let market be the judge....property only...stock, gold, commodity, currency, metal,oil...can also discuss if interested....:)
Hi Basic , if we sell now, then what we do with the funds?
Should we keep in SGD , USD, Yen or what asset class?
Can u give some suggestions ? Thanks
I for one am glad basic is around to post alternative view of the mkt. Minus the personal attacks, job well done.:)
devilplate
01-11-11, 09:10
You can interpret it as him/her being sarcastic. My understanding from what's written is that his/her reply's an encouragement to sell off one's properties now because prices will drop and that he/she has already done so himself/herself.
If anything, blame it on his/her poor grammar. I would have circled that sentence with a big red circle and plaster multiple ???? next to it if this was something written in an essay and i was grading it.
if tats the case, basic is correct mah......px did crash after may08
pls look at PPI......PPI was peaked at 2Q 2008
devilplate
01-11-11, 09:19
thanks, hopeful....at least a sensible person....
they can keep speculating what I did since 2007...create whatever story they like, tell lies or badmouth...let it be, just reflect on them...
I already gave my explanation, they come back with same thing again...
so can u explain wat u meant in your post made in may08?
devilplate
01-11-11, 09:26
I for one am glad basic is around to post alternative view of the mkt. Minus the personal attacks, job well done.:)
the personal attack oredi a big turn off leh
'only fools will buy now':D :D :D
Whether we agree with Basic or not, we all agree that buying now at this current climate is dangerous unless absolutely no choice! :rolleyes: Actually I do hope that Basic is right so can re-enter market again! :cheers1:
devilplate
01-11-11, 09:32
Whether we agree with Basic or not, we all agree that buying now at this current climate is dangerous unless absolutely no choice! :rolleyes: Actually I do hope that Basic is right so can re-enter market again! :cheers1:
last time if i say only fools will buy after 14th Jan 2011......duno offended how many bros here? LOL
i haf been holding cash since mid 2010......1yr 4mths had past and my cash eroded by more den 4% liao:scared-5:
Basic.... i want to listen to you and stick the the issue.... and FACTs.... Can you help me answer the following please....
1. when in the history of SIN did property prices drop 50%?
2. Can you name me three condo development that has drop 20% now?
I really appreciate your help.....
When I seen these two "Facts" I will sell my property now.....
devilplate
01-11-11, 09:36
Basic.... i want to listen to you and stick the the issue.... and FACTs.... Can you help me answer the following please....
1. when in the history of SIN did property prices drop 50%?
2. Can you name me three condo development that has drop 20% now?
I really appreciate your help.....
When I seen these two "Facts" I will sell my property now.....
for q1) he did mentioned tat this time round is much worse den 97 crash....so he is expecting at least 50% crash since 97 had crashed by about 40% rite
for q2) he so far cant provide any la....just tell us to search for it and he is not an agent:p
bargain hunter
01-11-11, 09:42
More HK homes sink below mortgage values
Govt will monitor housing policies designed to curb prices, says official
(HONG KONG) The rising number of Hong Kong homeowners with apartments worth less than their mortgages may further hurt sentiment already damped by the global equity rout and government curbs, according to Barclays Capital Research.
The estimated number of mortgages in 'negative equity' jumped to 1,653 at the end of the third quarter from 48 three months earlier, with the value of those loans rising to HK$4.1 billion (S$659.8 million) from HK$58 million, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority said on Oct 28. An index tracking the city's developers fell yesterday.
The number 'provides the first clear evidence of the on-going decline in Hong Kong property prices,' Barclays' Hong Kong-based analysts Andrew Lawrence and Vivien Chan wrote in a report yesterday. 'Further price falls are expected to follow.' The threat of a global economic slowdown is intensifying risks in Hong Kong's home market and the government will monitor housing policies designed to curb prices, Financial Secretary John Tsang said on Oct 27. Home transactions fell for a ninth straight month in September, while prices declined 3 percent from June to August, government statistics show.
The Hang Seng Property Index, which tracks the city's seven-biggest developers, fell 1.6 per cent at the close in Hong Kong, the biggest decline among the four industry groups in the benchmark Hang Seng Index. It declined 16 per cent this year, compared with the 14 percent drop in the benchmark gauge.
Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd, the world's biggest developer, fell 1.1 per cent to HK$108.40. Cheung Kong Holdings Ltd, the builder controlled by Hong Kong's richest man, Li Ka-shing, slid 0.4 per cent to HK$97.80.
Rising negative equity 'suggests that bank valuations for mortgages are falling quickly,' wrote Mr Lawrence, who forecast home prices may drop as much as 30 per cent by 2013 in an earlier report. 'Homebuyers will either need to use more equity to fund their home purchases or negotiate lower prices.'
The number of negative equity loans last quarter is at the highest since the second quarter of 2009. The figure reached a peak of 106,000 at the end of June 2003, when Hong Kong's home prices ended a six-year slump that wiped about two-thirds off values on average.
Hong Kong's Chief Executive Donald Tsang promised to provide more affordable homes and signalled greater government intervention in narrowing social inequality in his Oct 12 policy address, responding to a public outcry over the more-than 70 per cent surge in home prices since early 2009.
The government has in the past year raised minimum down- payment requirements on some home mortgage loans and increased land sales in an effort to curb soaring prices fueled by record low mortgage rates, a shortage of new apartment supply and an influx of buyers from other parts of China. Banks in Hong Kong have raised mortgage rates five times since March. -- Bloomberg
phantom_opera
01-11-11, 09:44
Worsty is right, this guys is a Ferrous Cranus.
Ferrous Cranus is utterly impervious to reason, persuasion and new ideas, and when engaged in battle he will not yield an inch in his position regardless of its hopelessness. Though his thrusts are decisively repulsed, his arguments crushed in every detail and his defenses demolished beyond repair he will remount the same attack again and again with only the slightest variation in tactics. Sometimes out of pure frustration Philosopher will try to explain to him the failed logistics of his situation, or Therapist will attempt to penetrate the psychological origins of his obduracy, but, ever unfathomable, Ferrous Cranus cannot be moved.
Super-rich want to leave mainland
Half those with assets of more than 10 million yuan are considering emigration, survey finds
I hv some problems in copying out.
devilplate
01-11-11, 10:08
no mention Sg ...:(
no mention Sg ...:(
I am now checking on the actual report : Hurun Report
perhaps u can help
One of the latest launch in HK SCMP 26 Oct 2011
Buoyed by solid buyer demand for a luxury development in Aberdeen, and a rebound in the stock market, a number of developers hope to cash in on improved market sentiment by launching pricey projects.
Developer K Wah International has indicated it will raise prices for its luxury residential development, Marinella, in Sham Wan, Aberdeen, after selling 210 of the 255 flats released this month in the first phase of sales at an average price of HK$20,000 per square foot.
Encouraged by that response, Sun Hung Kai Properties (SEHK: 0016 (http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/template.PAGE/page.company_profile/?companyId=0016.HK&s=business&ss=scmpIR)) announced it would release 50 flats for sale at The Wings, above the Tseung Kwan O MTR station, at an average price of HK$12,698 per square foot. A 2,560 sq ft flat with rooftop, private pool and two car parking spaces will be offered at HK$51.2 million, or HK$20,000 per square foot.
The prices at The Wings are pitched above those of deals completed at The Waterfront in Kowloon Station at an average price of HK$11,111 per square foot.
They are also priced higher than those of five Taikoo Shing flats sold last week, which fetched an average of HK$9,641 per square feet.
SHKP says the flats will be put on sale as early as tomorrow.
Sino Land will today release 58 homes at One Mayfair in Kowloon Tong - a traditional luxury address - at prices that will range between HK$15,686 and HK$20,808 per square foot, with flats priced between HK$21.2 million and HK$45 million.
Yesterday, the developer released an additional three homes - two with gardens and one with a roof garden and ranging in size from 1,607 square feet to 2,436 square feet - priced at between HK$27,600 and HK$29,380 per square foot. The 2,436 sq ft flat with 1,333 sq ft roof garden commands the highest price per square foot of the three, and costs HK$71.56 million.
Wing Tai Properties is stepping up marketing of its luxury development at 9 Warren Street in Tai Hang, agents said.
"To take advantage of the improved atmosphere, more developers will release their luxury developments in coming weeks. The strong sales outcome at Kowloon Tong and Tseung Kwan O will further boost the prospects of the luxury residential sector," said Sammy Po Siu-ming, a director at estate agency Midland Realty.
Also boosting the confidence of developers who are about to release their luxury projects is the performance of the Hong Kong stock market. After a sustained fall that took the benchmark Hang Seng Index to a low of 17,983 points last Thursday, the index had rebounded to 18,968.2 points by the close yesterday.
But market sentiment remained cautious, said Po, and the reaction to the release of the two latest luxury projects was not likely to be as positive as that for new mass-housing projects, which attracted hundreds of buyers on their launch day.
"There won't be a big volume of sales, as most of these flats cost more than HK$20 million," he said.
While there were many cash-rich buyers who did not need to raise mortgages, the limits on home loans could weigh on sales, said Po. The maximum loan-to-value ratio for mortgages on properties costing HK$10 million or more was lowered from 60 per cent to 50 per cent in June.
Nonetheless, SHKP had pitched The Wings at prices close to those being paid at nearby Kowloon Station, indicating that it was confident about the attractions of its brand name and the quality of the project, Po said.
"It aims to reinvent The Wings as another Cullinan at Tseung Kwan O, but offering units at half of what it achieved at Kowloon Station."
The average launch price at The Wings is 47 per cent lower than the HK$24,300 per square foot for which properties in The Cullinan at Kowloon Station sell on average.
The Wings, comprising 1,028 flats, is part of an integrated development that includes two hotels - a Crowne Plaza and a Holiday Inn Express - grade A offices and a shopping mall.
Lee Wee Liat, regional head of property research at Samsung Securities, noted SHKP's strategy was to launch in "reverse order".
"They put out the most expensive units first and then gradually sell those units at lower prices. They think it will be much easier to sell the higher-end units as they are still bullish on the luxury sector while cautious on the mid- to mass market segment," he said.
Cheung Kong (Holdings) (SEHK: 0001 (http://www.scmp.com/portal/site/SCMP/template.PAGE/page.company_profile/?companyId=0001.HK&s=business&ss=scmpIR)) said it might release the remaining three-bedroom flats at La Splendeur in Tseung Kwan O over the weekend.
A K Wah spokesman said that about 30 per cent of the Marinella buyers were mainlanders.
Derek Lau, a sales director for Centaline Property Agency's southwestern district, said flats at Marinella were being offered at about 13 per cent less than the HK$23,000 per square foot the market had expected.
"Most buyers will hold for long-term investment or leasing to bet on a further increase in prices. Investors account for 50 per cent of buyers," he said.
Lau said sales in the secondary market in the district had dropped as much as 30 per cent, as market attention turned to the primary market whenever a new development was released for sale.
[email protected] (
[email protected])
phantom_opera
01-11-11, 10:17
My own analysis of China:
1. China government finally managed to engineer a soft landing in its property market. Their target is something like 40% correction. It is a very safe / controlled operation because demand for affordable housing is way higher than the supply. Basic failed to highlight the supply-demand situation, instead just shouting price correction will spread to HK/SG without providing any analysis at all. Compare this to Japan property bubble last time, Japan government failed to control the price and let it hit 10,000 USD psf and suffered a 90% crash which leads to near zero growth until now. Therefore, we must applaud the Chinese government for doing the right thing at the right time. From another angle, even price corrects by 40% it is not cheap, Beijing 4th ring is 1000psf, correct 40% still 600psf.
2. Inflation
China inflation is expected to moderate to 3% next year. This will give them more room on minor adjustment in macro policy if required to moderate the property price correction.
万科降价了！
本报记者获悉，万科北京公司旗下金隅万科城即将于11月推出三期新房源，均价14000元/平方米，比之上期房源低了3000元/平方米；与此同时，万科深圳公司旗下项目金域缇香也将于11月推出均价万元左右的精装修房源，比此前开盘价优惠约1000元左右。
此外，深圳万科公园里、惠州万科城、东莞紫台等项目也推出不同幅度的优惠措施。事实上，2011年以来，万科的降价一直在持续，只不过更为隐蔽，降幅也呈递进式，随着一期期新房源的推出，价格也更为优惠。
不只是万科，在深圳，招商果岭在10月29日以低于区域均价数千元的价格入市，在惠州，卓越蔚蓝海岸更推出均价4900元/平方米的成本价房源。
几大房产大鳄中，继中海、龙湖之后，随着11月份的到来，深圳开发商接棒上海，万科、招商、卓越等开发商领衔掀起又一轮降价潮，大型开发商降价背后，既有“调控将长期持续”预期下市场竞争的压力，也有年度冲击业绩的压力，而更多的中小开发商则跟风跳水或转手，全国性的降价潮大幕或将开启。
proud owner
01-11-11, 10:23
Sibor still flat at .37, he chose to highlight sor instead, very good at presenting whatever favorable to his bearish view by quoting news, numbers etc but he failed to consider what if he is wrong
i am not sure exactly what he mentioned about SOR and Sibor
but when SOR turned negative a couple of months ago .. i know for a fact , banks lost alot of money ..
not so much as in loans to borrower pegged at SOR .. but bank's trading protfolio ... never expected that SOR could turn negative
as far as i know ... alot of my friends who own multiple props ..are or have started selling their props .. and are either expecting prices to stagnate or down ..
my friends may not represent the whole property markets ... but we started buying from 2005 ... and they have been right ... and made the list of 'millionaires' .. and now 9/10 feel the tide is changing ...
are we being prudent ? protecting profit ?
or is it a real change in trend ?
time will tell
devilplate
01-11-11, 10:29
one thing for sure: recently,resale market is dead dead dead.....abit of interest started last wkend only.....
1. China government finally managed to engineer a soft landing in its property market. Their target is something like 40% correction.
I wouldn't call 40% correction a soft landing. What is the financial consequences and knock on effects when this correction comes to fruition?:scared-5:
last time if i say only fools will buy after 14th Jan 2011......duno offended how many bros here? LOL
i haf been holding cash since mid 2010......1yr 4mths had past and my cash eroded by more den 4% liao:scared-5:But if you manage to buy a property which is 20% down, then you also gain >10% so no worries. Only fear that the drop will not come yet! :o
To basic, u mentionEd SOR went up to 1.2% recently ? When was it ? I'm curious.
Thanks.
basic can you confirm you did say SOR went up 1.2% ? Thanks.
Attached here is the SOR12M chart for the last 6 months. The lowest was -0.2, yesterday was high about +0.56, a total gain of about 0.76%.
I will stay outside China if I have that kind of money and make $ there. My family is exposed to health risk like breathing quesionable air, consuming questionable water and food, etc.
Super-rich want to leave mainland
Half those with assets of more than 10 million yuan are considering emigration, survey finds
I hv some problems in copying out.
.. and are either expecting prices to stagnate or down ..
actually I'm also expecting prices to stagnate or down. it's an opinion. no issue with that.
the reason basic gets a lot of attacks is because he mixes opinions with facts, and he use opinions to defend his opinions, it's a vicious cycle. and he likes to give lecture to others as if they are all very naive. this of course does not go down very well for any one. no one likes to be called stupid.
nonetheless it's an entertaining read.;) always good to have an opposite view.
So I did my contribution (on the SOR chart), and will continue reading ;)
phantom_opera
01-11-11, 10:52
I wouldn't call 40% correction a soft landing. What is the financial consequences and knock on effects when this correction comes to fruition?:scared-5:
That is because you don't understand China. Their stock market gone from 1000 to 6000 and back to 1,800, tell me what knock-on effects? Due to lack of public housing, China properties are the playground for the rich (cash ... no loan), most young couples who worked many years still cannot afford to buy unless they get help from parents. Even market corrects 40%, it is still very expensive to the middle class.
That is because you don't understand China. Their stock market gone from 1000 to 6000 and back to 1,800, tell me what knock-on effects? Due to lack of public housing, China properties are the playground for the rich (cash ... no loan), most young couples who worked many years still cannot afford to buy unless they get help from parents. Even market corrects 40%, it is still very expensive to the middle class.
on another note, assuming china agrees to be the white knight in shining armor to EFSF, the bonds will be denoted in yuan. this is a nightmare in the making with the other side of the atlantic shouting for penalties upon the chinese government for not letting the yuan appreciate further.
with an expected depreciation of the euros and assuming that the chinese do bow to pressure, this is a nightmare scenario for the euro zone as they have to fork out more to service their debts.
can only visualize merkel & sarkozy banning mac donald's, wal-marts and anything else from the stars & spangled country.
actually I'm also expecting prices to stagnate or down. it's an opinion. no issue with that.
the reason basic gets a lot of attacks is because he mixes opinions with facts, and he use opinions to defend his opinions, it's a vicious cycle. and he likes to give lecture to others as if they are all very naive. this of course does not go down very well for any one. no one likes to be called stupid.
nonetheless it's an entertaining read.;) always good to have an opposite view.
So I did my contribution (on the SOR chart), and will continue reading ;)Agree with your diagnosis of the situation! :o
actually I'm also expecting prices to stagnate or down. it's an opinion. no issue with that.
the reason basic gets a lot of attacks is because he mixes opinions with facts, and he use opinions to defend his opinions, it's a vicious cycle. and he likes to give lecture to others as if they are all very naive. this of course does not go down very well for any one. no one likes to be called stupid.
nonetheless it's an entertaining read.;) always good to have an opposite view.
So I did my contribution (on the SOR chart), and will continue reading ;)
there are 3 posts answering your qusetions, but you keep coming back with same question yet made such comment on me....
If you read, then all answer is there, why ask again?....
go to #362, #374 & #418....the chart is on #362, that is 3M chart, you can click to 12M if you want.....
I am not interested in arguing or use opinion to answer opinion, what I wrote is all fact from news, but I don't copy the reports here...don't believe, check yourself or you can say news is wrong...look at most forumers in this thread, expect me to spoonfeed them?? kena whacked, act as office boy for them or say thank you to them?.....
I am not interested whether you want to buy or sell your property, what is the price of individual projects or HDB….
as for the noise, just ignore…just post what I like to post, take it or leave it….
will reply some sensible & good forumers thru’ PM, but will not share in open postings…
I wouldn't call 40% correction a soft landing. What is the financial consequences and knock on effects when this correction comes to fruition?:scared-5:
sure...if 40% price drop across whole china....some china top banks will go bankrupt....although their stress test said can withstand 50%....you turst them??.....
China will not crash themselves, wait for external force...china is not as strong as many thought....their local debt, bad debt & corruption are very high....
let see tomorrow G20, US will force China to appreciate RMB, then start a trade war soon.....
finally someone speak the truth...In 2 yrs time, HK property to down 35-45%....this is conservative figure, should be higher...let see...
wait patiently, no need to be hurry, this coming recession is super long, 5-10 yrs you may not see the bottom, why rush.....
2 yrs, 45%...after 2 yrs, more & more.....
H.K. Home Prices May Fall as Much as 45%: Barclays
By Richard Frost - Nov 1, 2011 10:44 AM GMT+0800
Home transactions fell for a ninth straight month in September
Hong Kong (http://topics.bloomberg.com/hong-kong/)’s residential property prices would drop by 35 percent to 45 percent over the next two years in the “hard landing” scenario of a deflationary economic environment, Barclays Capital Research said.
In a “soft landing,” continued mortgage rate increases and a slowing economy would drive prices 25 percent to 30 percent lower over 2012 and 2013, Andrew Lawrence (http://topics.bloomberg.com/andrew-lawrence/) and Vivien Chan, analysts at Barclays, wrote in a report dated today.
“Given the economic outlook, it is difficult to see property prices and transaction volumes reverting to their long- term relationship without a price correction,” the analysts wrote. “The depth of that correction depends upon the external economic environment.”
The threat of a global economic slowdown is intensifying risks in Hong Kong’s home market and the government will monitor housing policies designed to curb prices, Financial Secretary John Tsang (http://topics.bloomberg.com/john-tsang/) said Oct. 27. Home transactions fell for a ninth straight month in September, while prices declined 3 percent from June to August, government statistics show.
Barclays’ soft-landing outlook is based on a continued Hong Kong dollar liquidity “squeeze” in the banking system that boosts mortgage rates for new borrowers, according to the note. In this scenario, higher borrowing costs would price first-time buyers out of the market and discourage existing home owners from trading up, causing a 15 percent to 20 percent decline next year and a 10 percent slump in 2013, as investors sell into “weak demand,” they wrote.
[quote=phantom_opera]That is because you don't understand China. Their stock market gone from 1000 to 6000 and back to 1,800, tell me what knock-on effects? [quote]
I don't think their stock mkt as a percentage of their GDP is anything close to their housing mkt size.
I for one am glad basic is around to post alternative view of the mkt. Minus the personal attacks, job well done.:)
i applaud basic, a single bear to go against a pack of bulls.:D
whahahaha...
HK home prices climbed more than 70 percent since early 2009. A correction of 50% will still have 20% for those buyers. Still not bad.Cannot calculate like that lah... say a $1mil property in 2009 rose by 70% means it is now $1.7mil. Then a 50% correction now means slashed by half = $0.85mil, i.e. a drop of $150k from purchase price... :D
HK home prices climbed more than 70 percent since early 2009. A correction of 50% will still have 20% for those buyers. Still not bad.
get your number right!!....
$1mil...up 70% is $1.7mil....down 50% is $850k....below $1mil, lost $$....
not simple arithmatic as what you said.....
since bottom of 2009...HK property don't up 70%....much less...
You two are fast. No time to change it.
i applaud basic, a single bear to go against a pack of bulls.:D
whahahaha...
actually I m bearish myself. bears are solitary animals, whereas bulls live in groups. That's why bears like GeylangOKT dont rush to support :D.
thomastansb
01-11-11, 12:42
I am becoming increasingly bearish also. I think Europe is just digging a bigger and bigger hole. Borrow more and more to give to citizens and repay interest. One day, Europe will have no choice but to default. And if Greece and Italy default at the same time, I think really gone case. 50% write off and we see bankruptcies. Unable to pay debt + massive downgrade, I think we will see Lehman again.
And Europe is so unique. Single currency, cannot print money. Citizens not willing to compromise. Government try to cut budget but citizens protest/strike which cause even bigger losses. And usually, Government give in and they spend borrowed money again. Germany also in trouble for helping their neighbours. I think it is a disaster recipe. This joint currency is totally bullshit IMO.
that is 3M chart, you can click to 12M if you want.....
basic, I posted the ACTUAL SOR12M chart for the last 6 months. Please tell me where the 1.2% jump is ? I have no comment on all your other opinions. Only this one. A simple factual question.
jonathann80
01-11-11, 12:49
Good and obedient woof. Keep it up.
Hi bros and sis just a property fish here that's been a reader and not contributor since last year but I noticed that some people here are comparing the euro crisis to the Lehman bro crisis but in this case, we are talking about the collapse of a few euro countries rather than a few banks 2 years ago so isn't the situation now far dire than before?
personally I feel that it's 1998 peak coming down all over again based on my gut shot feeling and im inclined towards basic bro views at least partially on his bearish thoughts because with the banks and countries going bankrupt soon we will see higher unemployment in the region as sg strength lies in our financial and medical hub as well as import exports which will all be affecting our rental yields,demands for housing and investment purchases.
again as unemployment rises I expect singaporeans who once flocked to the show flats and paying record prices for MM and OCR to default when we see the recession as most of them take loan and or are upgraders who need to top up cash after selling their hdb. so I believe this with the fact that we expect to see a oversupply in 2014 onwards prices of properties of OCR,MM should come down quite abit as they do not have that much of holding power compared to ccr holders.
please forgive me if my newbie post seem abit silly as it's my first time posting my views online afterall
i'm a bear too!
come let's group hug! :ashamed1:
phantom_opera
01-11-11, 13:38
新加坡出现温州人购房热
Amey是新加坡移民，老家在温州瑞安，贸易公司老板，今年来，她经常帮温州的亲朋好友看房买房，“这些亲朋好友在新加坡购房的景象，让我重新回忆起了2000年前后的上海购房热。” Amey用上海购房热来形容温州人当前的新加坡购房火爆程度。
Amey是新加坡移民，老家在温州瑞安，近10年的异国生活中，她的角色一直是贸易公司老板，但今年来，她浑然不觉多了一个角色——房开公司的“编外”业务员。这种变化的“力量”来源于温州亲朋好友的新加坡购房热，“这些亲朋好友在新加坡购房的景象，让我重新回忆起了2000年前后的上海购房热。” Amey用上海购房热来形容温州人当前的新加坡购房火爆程度。
豪气：3人逗留五天买下3套房
8月底，在新加坡远东房产机构，3名年轻的温州女子一口气买下3套房子，交易金额超过3000万元。一个多月过去了，Amey仍忘不了她们的豪气，新加坡远东房产机构亦是如此，远东房产是新加坡最大的房开公司。
这3名女子有2位刚做妈妈不久，30出头，还有一位是Amey在国内的学生，因此，在Amey眼里，她们还是一群孩子。
“看房时，乍一见是这么年轻的女性，担心她们的购买力，业务员直接建议她们合伙购买，但她们实际购买力让他们傻眼。”Amey说，这3人在新加坡逗留了五天，买下了3套房子，总交易金额超过3000万元，首付近700万元。
据这3名年轻的女性称，她们在温州经营一家贸易公司，去年底开始，不时听到在新加坡买房朋友的誉美之词，这让他们对新加坡房产垂涎不已。此次原本打算先考察一下，但是一到新加坡，当房子出现在眼前时，马上打定主意直接下单。“一个小区有13座游泳池，小区就是一座花园，还有价格、贷款利息等都很吸引人，一平方米售价5万元，首付两成，年利息不到1%……”在她们口中有说不完的新加坡房产吸引力。从新加坡回温一周之内，她们接到很多电话，都是亲朋好友咨询新加坡购房事宜的。“我们突然有一种开启温州人新加坡房产投资热潮的感觉。”这几名年轻的女性这样调侃。
惊叹：多数温州人旅游时“抢”房
今年以来，温州亲朋好友新加坡旅游“抢”购房产的现象更让Amey惊叹不已。他们不少人都是在新加坡旅游时买房的，甚至因为行程紧张无暇办理购房手续。
“哪怕告诉他们，新加坡房价这两年已上涨很多，也无法降低他们的购房热情，他们还开玩笑埋怨我消息不及时。”Amey表示，这些朋友都把新加坡房子当成“宝”。
今年4月，Amey温州的朋友戴先生跟团游玩新加坡，途中听到团友对新加坡房产投资的分析，出于好奇，他把自己最后一天行程安排改为“看房”，并买下一处房产。戴先生在瑞安经营一家小型加工厂 ，现在回想自己的国外置业，他还有点恍惚： “经常听到温商去韩国、澳大利亚、美国等地买楼的新闻，总感觉国外置业是大老板的事情，与我自己无关的。但是站在新加坡售楼处，我突然发现自己也是可以国外置业的。”
戴先生这样形容自己的决定，“决定买房真在一念之间。”他说当时仅在心里算了一笔账：若在新加坡繁华地带，譬如金融中心，买个1000万元的房子，年租金收入可达四五十万元，租金回报率在4%~5%。
面对这些“意外”买房的朋友，Amey经常反问：什么东西让他们像买白菜一样购买新加坡房产？答案都很相像：新加坡环境好、投资回报率高、贷款利率低，值得投资……
自豪：今年帮忙介绍交易10处房产
现在，Amey已经记不清楚自己接听了多少个温州老乡的购房咨询电话，但Amey隐约记得，温州老乡的购房热是从2010下半年开始预热，2011年，温州人新加坡购房正式升温。“从去年下半年开始，每隔几天，我总能接到温州老乡购房产咨询电话，但真正下订单的并不多。而今年，只问不卖的现象彻底改变，温州老乡都直接下单买房，甚至让我感觉到他们买房像买菜一样方便，我还没有发现空手回去的。” Amey说，今年以来，她已经帮忙介绍交易10处房子，交易金额达1亿元。
Amey不是房产业务员，但这样的“业务量”完全超越了一般业务员，这让她在新加坡房产行业小有名气，堪称“编外”业务员。 这大半年，Amey总不时跑房开公司，并把买房的温州朋友介绍给房产公司业务员。凭借业务量，她总能帮温州老乡拿到优惠折扣，于是温州老乡又把Amey介绍给自己的朋友……就这样，Amey成了名副其实的编外业务员。
“温州人能够拿到优惠价格，是凭借他们的购房量，我只是把他们的购房量集中起来，规模效益出来。现在，我已经成为房开公司的座上宾，公司从上到下，无一不认识的，银行亦是如此。”Amey这样说。
拥有这样的客户资源，很多买了新加坡房子的朋友建议Amey直接做房产中介生意，但是Amey更喜欢当编外业务员。 现在，她倒特别担心新加坡房产被“卖光”，“今年，新加坡政府已经提高了留学与移民的门槛，现在房产投资大门还照样敞开，我不知道什么时候会关紧，新加坡毕竟是个小国，若这样持续火热，我估计不会太久……”
他们这样看待温州人新加坡买房
投资新加坡不要期望暴发式大涨
新加坡远东机构中国区销售经理Sandy：随着国内限购令后，来自中国的房产投资者越来越多。新加坡官方统计数字显示，2011年中国投资者超越印尼投资者，成为新加坡房产最大的海外投资来源。温州人是我们中国区最重要的客户群，我估算一下，约1/15中国客人是温州的。与其他地方的客人相比，温州客人有明显特点，很干脆，又有点“跟风”味道，经常出现“你买，我也买，你不买，我也不买”的现象。温州客人又特别豪爽，有些客人只是在电话里咨询几次就直接下单。
现在，新加坡已经成为东南亚地区最活跃的房产投资地，包括一手房、二手房和租赁市场。2000年以来，新加坡房价也出现几次涨涨跌跌，但是幅度都不是很大。投资新加坡房产，投资者切记稳健，不要期望暴发式的增长。
炒作空间并不大，切忌跟风
温州卓维海外置业胡建克：温州人新加坡房产热并不奇怪。的确，新加坡是温州人海外置业的一个好地方，政局稳定、新币升值、花园国家等，新加坡也被公认为是世界最安全、最具价值的地点之一。但是新加坡是以稳健著称，一般来说，它的房价不会大起大落，因此，它并不适合快进快出的炒作型投资者，它比较适合留学移民，资金保值增值。其实海外每个区域的投资特点都是不一样的，温州人海外置业时要从自己实际需求出发，切忌盲目跟风。
链接
新加坡购房基本条件
1. 带土地的独立式洋房、半独立式洋房、排屋只有新加坡公民可以购买。(但是圣淘沙岛的别墅及排屋外国人可以购买)
2. 外国人或永久居民可以购买大部分的公寓产业包括住满十年以上的共管公寓。
新加坡公寓房产面积都是实用面积，没有公摊，每个单位都免费带车位，不需要另外买。每个月管理费按平方英尺计算，随所买单位面积大小及公寓设施不同而有所不同，但通常中档新公寓三个房间的单位管理费每月300-500 元左右。
新加坡买房所需时间：
1. 现房，从下订金到完成买房手续需要2-3 个月时间。
2. 期房，从下订金直到交房，根据工程进度最多大约3 年时间。
phantom_opera
01-11-11, 13:45
Which project has 13 swimming pools? Laguna and euHabitat owners will be very happy ;)
“一个小区有13座游泳池，小区就是一座花园，还有价格、贷款利息等都很吸引人，一平方米售价5万元，首付两成，年利息不到1%……”在她们口中有说不完的新加坡房产吸引力。
bargain hunter
01-11-11, 13:46
Economy
China's cradle of entrepreneurs braces for debt reckoning
Thu, Oct 27 09:59 AM IST
http://in.mobile.reuters.com/do/getNewsImages?n=economicNews&u=INIndia-60144820111027&i=1
By Jane Lanhee Lee
WENZHOU, China (Reuters) - After China's cradle of private enterprise was rocked recently by woes of its vast underground banking market, a full-blown debt crisis was averted -- but the real test is still to come.
That test will take place in January, when companies and individuals have to settle their bills ahead of the Lunar New Year.
Wenzhou, a hive of entrepreneurship on the coast around 400 km (250 miles) south of Shanghai, came into the spotlight in the past month for the cracks appearing in its vast underground lending market, whereby loan sharks and pools of depositors extend credit to small companies that have trouble getting loans from banks.
In late September, worries in Wenzhou, a city of about 2.3 million people, grew sharply. Media reports said that some company chiefs fled and that one shoe-business boss jumped to his death after not being able repay their high-interest loans -- sometimes rumoured to carry annual rates topping 100 percent.
The government has since intervened, with Premier Wen Jiabao visiting the city this month and ordering banks to support small businesses, which often have turned to the underground market after getting rejected by banks.
Wen's move helped improve sentiment and pushed back the possibility of a series of bankruptcies, which analysts have said could spread into the formal banking system.
Reuters Insider Video -- http://link.reuters.com/tas64s
Still, many people in Wenzhou are awaiting with dread the most tense time for businesses even in very good years -- debt collection time.
"Chinese like to settle their debts between January 1st and the start of the Lunar New Year," said Hu Zhenhua, a professor of economics at Wenzhou University. The first day of Lunar New Year celebrations is January 23.
"If we don't pay attention to this period, we may see more bosses running away," Hu warned.
POSSIBLE DOMINO EFFECT?
To be sure, a blowout of the informal lending market in Wenzhou would not itself pose a serious threat to the Chinese financial system or economy.
The underground credit market nationwide was worth 2.4 trillion yuan ($377 billion) at the end of March 2010, less than 6 percent of China's total lending, according to estimates by the central bank. Wenzhou accounts for just a small portion of that total.
But there is still reason for authorities to worry about the possibility that bankruptcies in Wenzhou could start a domino effect of defaults.
Any social unrest that would ensue could be seen as a preview of what might happen elsewhere in the country should the property market or broader economy experience a harder-than-expected landing, potentially leading to defaults in both the formal and informal banking systems.
In Qiaotou, a button-making town on the outskirts of Wenzhou, luxury sedans and SUVs line the streets. Many button bosses have poured money into a 33-story luxury apartment building, now under construction, that is surrounded by farmland, with polluted streams and fume-belching factories in the background.
Yet outward signs of confidence and wealth mask an underlying state of suspense that hangs over the business community here. Many business people wonder whether their debtors will pay them and whether they, in turn, will be able to pay their creditors come January.
"There's a lot of concern about whether clients will be able to pay back the money they owe for the goods," said 34-year-old button maker Chen Wensheng, who left school at 15 to join the family business.
The problem is not just Chen's clients, who currently owe him around 500,000 yuan ($78,000) and, he says, are seeing their clothing business slow.
PRESSURE TO DIVERSIFY
More important is that many businesses have themselves started relending money or borrowing for speculative purposes -- a practice that paid off handsomely in good times but is now exposing many to big losses.
"I just wish that my clients, if they have cash, wouldn't invest in things like stocks, gold, and property. If it's not properly managed, it will be dangerous for our industry," said Chen.
Throughout China, the people of Wenzhou are known not just for their entrepreneurial spirit, but also for their betting on everything from property to commodities.
For many of Wenzhou's entrepreneurs, even if they survive the winter unscathed, hard questions will remain about how a city that built itself on producing low-cost products will be able to evolve. Traditional industries such as button-making and shoes are becoming less viable as China's costs rise.
Even Hu Xuchang, who runs a pipe company that has more than $100 million in sales a year and considers himself a relatively conservative businessman, feels the pressure to diversify his business if he is to survive given razor-thin margins.
Hu has made sure not to over-extend himself as many other business have done, but has himself gotten into the private equity business, making investments in start-up technology and finance firms elsewhere in China.
"I considered expanding the main pipe business in a big way. But profits have slowly fallen over the years and it would have been difficult. So I looked for a business with higher profits and value added," he said.
Come the Lunar New Year, Hu and other businessmen in Wenzhou may be wondering where is the value in their investments.
新加坡出现温州人购房热
That is why KBW is "closely monitoring" the foreign buying trend. If citizen buying is tapering while foreign buying is escalating, we could be seeing new pty legislations.:2cents:
hi phantom opera my chinese isn't top notch but from what i can read and guess(by hopping certain chinese characters), it pictures a bullish picture of singapore properties.
i agree with you till a certain extent that singapore property does seem attractive to overseas buyers especially where their home country politics isn't all that stable to begin with, corruption etc which is endless compared to singapore.
but i believe that this bullish trend of purchasing singapore property applies only to the very rich in china and i believe their main objective is to move assets and money outside of china incase anything happens to them in their country, they can actually apply for a 5 year pass into singapore provided that they invest 10m here(8m in bank 2m for ppty).
i am unsure if before its the middle upper class that are also investing into singapore ppty before all the bad news but i personally believe that investors will be lesser but rich china businessmen etc will still continue to diversify and move assets into various other countries like london,sg,.
humble 2 cents of thoughts.
phantom_opera
01-11-11, 13:51
That is why KBW is "closely monitoring" the foreign buying trend. If citizen buying is tapering while foreign buying is escalating, we could be seeing new pty legislations.:2cents:
Still very selective only, where got Chinese buyers in ATT, all Punggol hardcores :beats-me-man:
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