No disagreement here. I will however note that bankers need to eat too and it is a two way relationship, I.E. Let your banker make some money and he / she will ring you often for spotted opportunities.
Russia was a terrific buy two months ago for a speculative play, not so much now.
Anyone bidded for the new issue FCL Treasury 5+% perp bond?
10 years step up 100 basis point, dividend stopper and pusher all yes. Looks very similar to mapletree treasury perps.
Bloomberg article on bond issuances in China being canned last week: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-1...elds-jump.html
Business Times article on bond mkt in Singapore recently: http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/bank...nk-bid-falters
yup, people who blindly bought swiber bonds kenna burnt.
Some tranches of Alibaba bonds are already under-water: http://www.businessweek.com/news/201...ba-disappoints
How about eastspring monthly fund?
Thanks everyone for the support! Find A Home Loan is Standard Chartered #1 broker in 2013.
I'm not sure which Eastspring bond fund you are referring to, but you can see weekly, monthly price performance here: https://secure.fundsupermart.com/mai...rateTable.svdo
I started to go into fixed income in 2010 after the Lehman crisis in 08/09. It is the Lehman crisis that really make me wake up for all the past stupid mistakes I made. I also learn that all investment products are all manipulated by big traders. Of course the biggest manipulators is the US FED. Do not trust the recommendation from GS , CS , Citi , JP , local securities houses, your friends/colleague/relatives, bankers & remisers. Big banks are being fined billions of dollars for manipulating FX , GOLD/OIL , stock , Sibor , Libor etc etc. Only trust "FEAR".
Let make investing simple.
1.Money is made by sitting, not trading all the time.
2. Most successful investors, in fact,do nothing most of the time
3. It takes time to make money. Just be very very patience.
3.Once every few years, there will be a crisis. So be very patience
4.There is a time for all things, but you & I don't know when. But we know that when there is extreme fear in the mkt. It is the time to invest.
5.Many humans are deceitful at heart. Never trust their recommendation.
6.Loser investors have very short memories. They are CONDEMNED to REPEAT the same mistakes again.
7.HERD & GREED investing are GUARANTEE for failure in long run.
8.You don’t need extraordinary IQ of 160 or a MASTER degree or PHD holder to succeed as an investor. But U need a lot of EQ.
9.I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.
10. The way to make BIG money is to buy when blood in the street. If U invested in OSIM $60000 in 2008.In July14, is worth $2.6 million.
Last but not least. Health is a priceless wealth. Invest while you can.
Fool me ONCE , shame on YOU.
Fool me TWICE, shame on ME.
Fool me 3RD TIME, how STUPID I am.
Fool me the FOURTH TIME, I need to be CONDEMNED.
Fool me the FIFTTH TIME, SIX TIME ... I am really a hopeless GAMBLER, not a investor. The final tragedy hopeless GAMBLER stage will bring financial disaster to his/her family.
This is what I did since 2010.
Central China real estate SGD corporate bond 10.75% due May 2016. CapitaLand is one of the substantial share holders in CCRS.
Amount at par (100) = S$250k
LTV = 60%
Cash required = 40% X $250 = $100k.
Coupon yield = 10.75%
Coupon paid = S$26,875
Interest = 1.1% & custodian fee = 0.2%
Interest & custodian paid = S$3250
Net cash = S$26,875 - 3250 = S$23,625
ROI on cash = 23,625/100,000 = 23.6%.
I have been using debt to generate income since 2010. I.e leveraging.
I buy short dated bond due 2016/17/18. Trikomsel due 2016.
I buy bond during mini crisis. VTB bank SGD 4% due Jul 2015
I buy bond where SG or China government is one of the stake holders. OLAM/Citi pacific
I buy bond where most of the bond fund (unit trust) hold it. Like citi pacific perp 8.25%
I do buy HDB bond to bal my bond portfolio.
I buy at par & will sell for capital gain later & switch to new IPO bond.
I buy bond.The coupon paid will be reinvested in my kids saving plan as well as my retirement plan.
I buy bond. The coupon paid will be accumulated to buy my next property in 2015/16.
I am a risk take. I buy China developer bond. If U are a new investor. Buy blue chip bond. My 1st bond is DBS perp bond in 2010.
Capland , OUE etc.
Thanks Vic - if the mkt corrects and you enter again, do tell us so we can be guided by your moves please
70% of my bond holdings are maturing in the next 12 months or less, including all of the ones I have on leverage. DBS lets me lock in the interest rate so I sleep quite soundly at night.
Any views whether the Ezra perp will be recalled in Sept next year? Otherwise they will have to step up the coupon by 3%. Q tempting to me.
This is more about equity rather than bonds, but info on upcoming Keppel Data Centre REIT: http://www.financeasia.com/News/3924...ily_newsletter
Just last mth, I bought Shui on USD perp bond 10.25% @97.8 when there is a mini correction. It went down from 103 to 97+. So I took the chances to buy it.
Now it is 100.5. This is to replace my citi pacific USD perp bond 8.25% which I sold in Sept'14 @115 (bought @94.7). My profit for citi pacific is almost S$100k for holding 20 mths. If I am more aggressive. I will not sell the citi pacific perp. But I tell myself not to borrow too much or too greedy. So I sold & replace another new perp bond.
Sorry, I don't have Ezra perp bond 8.75%. Because it is trading below par 98-99 (need to check the price again) . the chances maybe 50-50.
Hope US Fed will not raise the interest rate to aggressively next yr.
My banker told me that the recent new issued 7% Ezion perp is to replace the older Eizon perp bond 7.8% due next yr.
The older Ezion perp bond 7.8% due 2015 is also trading above par 102-103 vs Ezra perp bond 8.75% due 2015 trading @ 98-99.
I think U may need to check with other banker from other bank to seek for more info.
MAS report released this week:
Corporate debt-to-GDP ratio hit 78% in Q2, versus 52% in Q2 2008: https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/ma...inkId=10774492
http://www.todayonline.com/singapore...household-debt
Looks like CMs even less likely to go away any time soon
Ezion, Ezra, Swiber, etc, all oil related counters dropping >2% - 4%.
Just one mth ago (Oct14) , the banker propose a attractive 6 mths FCN on China CNOOC & Petro China.
K.O @ 100% spot price. Coupon 10% 6mths period.
Sometimes, by looking at what the bank issuing the FCN investment derivative product on the oil & gold
with deep barrier or attractive coupon etc. It may able to provide a 3rd eye to predict the future oil & gold
stock movement ahead.
CNOOC = Spot 12.48
Strike = 92% of 12.48 = 11.48 (only when it close @barrier 9.98)
Barrier = 80% of 12.48 = 9.98
Today price @ 11.83
Petro China = Spot 9.60
Strike = 92% of 9.60 = 8.83 (only when it close @ barrier 7.68)
Barrier = 80% of 9.60 = 7.68.
Today price @8.34
Corporate debt so high then they should target corporate debt directly!
Cooling measures for residential properties are just for residential properties, and if debt is high, then they should start to mandate that HDB flat owners cannot own HDB flats and private condos at the same time since most of the time, the marginer property owners come from this group!
Anyway, it doesn't make sense that HDB flat owners can buy condos while condo owners cannot buy HDB flat too! This law is just NOT EQUITABLE and do not treat all fairly!
The Oil Price will Start the next Stock Market Boom…
November 20, 2014 at 2:34 pm by Kris Sayce
Tags: australian market, commodities, oil and gas, oil price, stock market boom, stock market bubble
Here’s a good sign for what I believe is just the start of an almighty asset price boom (more below).
USA Today reports:
‘Walmart beat Wall Street expectations for the third quarter and executives say they’re optimistic about a successful holiday season heading into the fourth quarter.
‘Walmart shares finished up 4.72% to $82.94 Thursday.
‘The company reported earnings per share of $1.15, or $3.71 billion, Thursday. Revenue was $119 billion, better than analyst expectations of $118.35 billion.’
OK. Walmart didn’t beat estimates by a country mile. It’s more of a close shave than that.
But the stock reaction tells you how negative investors and the market are right now on stocks. For the company to be that close and for the share price to skyrocket by nearly 5%, it says that most investors expected Walmart to miss estimates…and miss them big.
Walmart’s results helped push the US S&P 500 index to within a sniff of another record close. Even an average evening on Wall Street tonight should see the index beat that record.
As for the Aussie market, the word ‘dull’ springs to mind.
The one market you can’t call dull continues to be the oil market…
The boom is coming
It may be an exaggeration to call it a bloodbath, but heck, what’s wrong with a little exaggeration now and then?
The falling oil price is a subject we’ve covered in depth. We make no apology for that. The oil price is the key to everything. It’s the most important commodity there is.
Forget gold or even iron ore. There will always be a demand for iron ore. Building developers need iron ore all the time. Building projects around the globe are going at breakneck speed.
Controversial economist Phillip J Anderson explained as much in his latest research report for Cycles, Trends & Forecasts:
‘Today, we have huge railway projects around the world, in planning or soon to be under construction. This time will be no different. Some of these rail lines are large — no, huge — engineering projects. The gains will be astonishing.’
He goes on to talk about the building projects in China, Japan, South and Central America, and even Europe. If you don’t already get Phil’s commentary on economic cycles and trends, you can find out how to get it here.
There’s no shortage of demand for iron ore. Folks will build things whether iron ore is US$50 a tonne or US$150 a tonne.
In a way, the same has been proven true for oil. Despite the oil price climbing from US$20 to over US$140 in 10 years, the demand for and supply of oil kept rising.
The following chart shows the quarterly world demand for oil since 2012…a period of relatively high oil prices:
Source: International Energy Agency
As you can see, demand increased from just below 90 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2012, to an expected level above 92 million barrels per day in the first quarter of 2015.
However, here’s the difference. And this is really important…
99% of the Aussie population — scratch that, the world’s population — couldn’t give a stuff about iron ore prices. No one cares.
No one drives to work, looking at the price of iron ore on big price boards every two or three kilometres. No one decides to shop at Aldi instead of Woolworths because iron ore has jumped from US$80 to US$140.
No one decides to downsize their car because of high iron ore prices.
But they do when oil and petrol prices are high.
This is why the oil price is so important. It has an impact on consumer sentiment like no other commodity. Providing the oil price stays around this level, or even goes lower, I see this as the starting point for the next stock market boom…
…a boom few others can see coming.
Ahead of the curve
If and when the market does boom, some of the biggest gainers will be the small-cap speculative stocks.
Small-caps generally do well in a boom because investors are always looking for the next big thing.
In fact, it’s this drive to find better and better stocks that leads to share prices becoming overvalued.
You see this happening all the time. The best stocks in a sector take off first. The natural reaction for investors is to look for the next best stocks. So they start buying up those.
Then investors who missed out on that wave start looking for the next best…and so on. Eventually, ‘best’ becomes a rather inappropriate word. It’s more a case of ‘what’s left’.
This story has played out a lot in the commodities sector in recent years. It happened with rare earths, uranium, potash, graphene, gold, and many others.
One company finds a bumper resource, and suddenly every man and his dog claims that they too have found a huge resource.
I remember the uranium boom of the early to mid-2000s. Punters were so desperate to back uranium stocks that even companies with nothing more than a permit to explore for uranium saw their stock prices double, triple, quadruple and more.
Soon after, prices collapsed.
Surely that sort of madcap boom and bust market couldn’t happen again, could it? Are you kidding! Of course it could…and it will.
This is the scenario I painted in the October issue of Tactical Wealth. When oil prices fall, consumers will feel as though they’ve gotten a pay rise. What follows will be rising confidence, the willingness to take more risks with their higher disposable income, and higher asset prices.
That’s why investors can’t afford to sit on the sidelines. They have to invest…they have to speculate. But they also have to know when it’s time to get out.
Kris Sayce,
Editor, Tactical Wealth
As of today,
3month SIBOR = 0.42820%
3month SOR = 0.40924%
How will rising SOR affect bond yield?