Property market sentiments?

[J-Dog]

You know what is the best indication for the market ? - The Japanese Yen ! when the yen stays strong that means the global market in uncertainty and quite negative , when it's weaken the market goes up and turns positive , same to real estate .. At the moment the yen is very strong and that gives me an indication that the market is well overpriced and there is no fundamentals to it , rental still going down .. a lot of my profeccional trader friends keep saying "we do not understand this " which is tells that's a buble .. will sure crash soon .. News paper put a lot of bullshit presure .. just few month ago they went "Oversupply, Crunch " and today all of a sudden " Undersuply , going to be shortage of units on the market , future is bright" .. e.t.c. What a bunch of clowns ..

[bargain hunter]

'Singapore is probably the only place on earth where there is a recession and unemployment but the property market is still so hot,’ said Mr Eugene Lim, associate director of property firm ERA Asia Pacific.

[durian]

Simple economics:

When interest rate is low, stock price and property assets will go up.

When money supply increases, inflation will kick in.

We need to face this reality over the next few years. Govt will then raise interest rate and cycle go all over again.

[Honesty]

You know what is the best indication for the market ? - The Japanese Yen ! when the yen stays strong that means the global market in uncertainty and quite negative , when it's weaken the market goes up and turns positive , same to real estate .. At the moment the yen is very strong and that gives me an indication that the market is well overpriced and there is no fundamentals to it , rental still going down .. a lot of my profeccional trader friends keep saying "we do not understand this " which is tells that's a buble .. will sure crash soon .. News paper put a lot of bullshit presure .. just few month ago they went "Oversupply, Crunch " and today all of a sudden " Undersuply , going to be shortage of units on the market , future is bright" .. e.t.c. What a bunch of clowns ..

Totally agreed, don't know what the hell is going on....No logic...

I pity those herd... How to sell their property the next time.

See people buy... they also buy...never do their sum...

To-date ( Jan to June 09 )there are about more than 8,000 new units sold by the developers. Imagine, 2 years down the road, there will alot alot of units going to TOP as developers is pushing back to delay the completion for next year, so come 2 years later it will be over supply again.

When the economy recovered, and what if the bank will to rise their interest rate, then it real "BIG" problem. I remember my interest rate increase from 3% to 8% in 1996, and I had to pay additional $900.00 every month just on interest alone.

Be careful...don't just buy it....think

[blackswan]

You know what is the best indication for the market ? - The Japanese Yen ! when the yen stays strong that means the global market in uncertainty and quite negative , when it's weaken the market goes up and turns positive , same to real estate .. At the moment the yen is very strong and that gives me an indication that the market is well overpriced and there is no fundamentals to it , rental still going down .. a lot of my profeccional trader friends keep saying "we do not understand this " which is tells that's a buble .. will sure crash soon .. News paper put a lot of bullshit presure .. just few month ago they went "Oversupply, Crunch " and today all of a sudden " Undersuply , going to be shortage of units on the market , future is bright" .. e.t.c. What a bunch of clowns ..

Clap Clap Clap
Can't agree more. The point is dun bother so much when the market when turn, more importantly is to get the direction right.

You might get the timing wrong for a couple of quarters but that's also only 6 months or so. But if the market does, turn, its most likely going to be a big turn so its okay not to do nothing for 6 months or so. Key is that when the mkt turn, does one have the cash to deploy.

[xtink]

half yr ago... everyone was slamming anyone who bought, says prices are going down down down...

half year later on, the reverse happened, and all these slammers still couldnt find a reason why it went up. probably some has also reversed its stand already

whether these buyers now are smarter or stupid in 6 months time, we shall then take another 6 months view later on in the future.

ultimately, the person who manages to take the money off the table has placed a good bet.

[andy]

whether these buyers now are smarter or stupid in 6 months time, we shall then take another 6 months view later on in the future.

ultimately, the person who manages to take the money off the table has placed a good bet.

Why 6 months? Market gone up 20% since Q1. Will it go up another 20% by Q4 or can it turn by next quarter?

[Water Lover]

I think this time round buyers going in with their eyes opened.

Many rich or those accumlated cash are scared of the financial products.

They knew that the cloud has not really cleared as yet but where else to
park their money. Don't forget comes end Dec 2010, no more guarantee bank deposit. Even if market down they have calculated their sum before going in. If market up hooraay, if market down wait loi.. Anyway market
cycle nowadays are short and unpredictable.

The only clue is how many more of these loaded ones still coming in b4 the momentum slows down...

With all the not so good news, particularly from the horses mouth, u think flippers dare to jump in blindly.

[xtink]

i mean to say, those who buy now, whether they made the right move or not, nobody can tell now. I use 6 months as a time check horizon.

(as i have given the example that those who made the predictions six months ago were thoroughly wrong today).

it need not go up in a straight line continuously for 20%. even if is 1% increase or even stabilise for the next 6 months, the buyers now are not wrong either

disclaimer: me just trying to make some counter arguements. me too poor to chase the mkt price now. so not vested in any... except my hdb..

[blackswan]

Why 6 months? Market gone up 20% since Q1. Will it go up another 20% by Q4 or can it turn by next quarter?

The day the market goes up is 9th March, that's the day where markets around the world plunge into the 'Green Shoots' theory.

just before that the S&P500 is at 666 on the big figure. That's the lowest in 12 - 13 years. Thus market market is up around 4.5 months. If market can up so fast in 4.5 months, why can't market turn down faster in the same period???

If we refer to the chart for tech bubble burst, Asian financial crisis, SASRs, 911, and the current financial crisis, you will realized that the only consistent pattern was that market come down a lot faster then it goes up

[yowetan]

I am amazed with the current bull run in the property market. I find its unbelievable and it certianly making my dream of owning an apartment at a reasonable price a distant away from me now. I am looking for a resales unit but the price has gone up by at least 20-30% since march 09. I cannot believe we are having a recession now, yet the regulatory body is not doing something to curb this speculation....my god!

[J-Dog]

Well it makes me very nervous , I shorted SP500 and for a good reason , it is trading 12 times it's value , it destined to crash .. I think this time it will happen very fast : BIG BANG !!! and all the hell will brake loose !! This is another reason I sold one of my unit at good profit , if the market goes higher I will sell another one just to buy back at the basement sale
I offered for few units through Property Guru , for some even what they wanted , agents came back to me that owners up the prices , so good luck to them .. Even East Cost Lease Holds now asking 1600psf for some units which is absolutely nuts ) But I kind of like that .. More herd mentality , more money for folks with brain to pay for big toys )

[blackswan]

I am amazed with the current bull run in the property market. I find its unbelievable and it certianly making my dream of owning an apartment at a reasonable price a distant away from me now. I am looking for a resales unit but the price has gone up by at least 20-30% since march 09. I cannot believe we are having a recession now, yet the regulatory body is not doing something to curb this speculation....my god!

The point is why should the regulator comes in as these people are all adults, and surely there’s nobody there to put a knife or pistol on their head.

The government can’t always come in and regulate this and that as that’s not their job. Their job is to set the necessary ground rules so that there is a level playing field, and if anyone is perceived to have broken the law, that’s where they will step in.

Like what J-Dog said, the higher the prices goes, the better for people whom have the view that things are going to take a drastic downturn. That’s because there are more and more people whom are hook to a million dollar loan.

[august]

I am amazed with the current bull run in the property market. I find its unbelievable and it certianly making my dream of owning an apartment at a reasonable price a distant away from me now. I am looking for a resales unit but the price has gone up by at least 20-30% since march 09. I cannot believe we are having a recession now, yet the regulatory body is not doing something to curb this speculation....my god!

speculators? why cannot be genuine home owners meh? u joker lah ~

i may dream of owning Marq, but 4k psf is out my reach, shld i go blame others for my broken dreams?

[teddybear]

Trying to curb price based on your view property prices are now expensive is not the regulatory body's job (i.e. your view of expensive or not is immaterial). The fact that they are supposed to ensure stable and not run away prices and the fact that they have not done anything could also indicate that they are of the view that the current price is OK to them and there is no speculation and run-away prices? Does it occur to you that the fact that we have yet to emerge from a recession means that there is no bull run now and property prices transacted now are just recession prices? (i.e. prices have more way to go up since current transaction prices are considered the recession price).

I am amazed with the current bull run in the property market. I find its unbelievable and it certianly making my dream of owning an apartment at a reasonable price a distant away from me now. I am looking for a resales unit but the price has gone up by at least 20-30% since march 09. I cannot believe we are having a recession now, yet the regulatory body is not doing something to curb this speculation....my god!

[cheerful]

yalor ... financial products muz protect, property muz protect ... how to regulate so many things .... thot shld be buyers beware mah .. no meh?

The point is why should the regulator comes in as these people are all adults, and surely there’s nobody there to put a knife or pistol on their head.

The government can’t always come in and regulate this and that as that’s not their job. Their job is to set the necessary ground rules so that there is a level playing field, and if anyone is perceived to have broken the law, that’s where they will step in.

Like what J-Dog said, the higher the prices goes, the better for people whom have the view that things are going to take a drastic downturn. That’s because there are more and more people whom are hook to a million dollar loan.

[xtink]

then in future there would be regulatory bodies for all bloody thing you do or buy... why underwear so expensive poor people cannot afford, and char kway teow becomes so expensive such that $5 also no "harm"....

[nobrainer32007]

come on what recession are we talking about?

take a walk at ION and you will know what i mean.

the foreigners esp indons are happily spending their $$$ in singapore buying up branded goods.

property? less than 2000sf they are actually not so keen.

foreigners have not yet returned in a big way but market already so hot.

can you imagine the price level when these cash rich foreigners/private equity funds come back in a big way like in 2007? who can be sure that they won't?

liquidity, low deposit rate, risk aversion to financial products and impact of stimulus measures by many governments globally...

don't under-estimate the combined effect.

for singapore, don't also under-estimate the IR effect in 2010.

for those who miss the boat, my advice is:-

just sit one side quietly and wait for the next cycle.
instead of shouting around that market is collapsing...since begining of the year

I am amazed with the current bull run in the property market. I find its unbelievable and it certianly making my dream of owning an apartment at a reasonable price a distant away from me now. I am looking for a resales unit but the price has gone up by at least 20-30% since march 09. I cannot believe we are having a recession now, yet the regulatory body is not doing something to curb this speculation....my god!

[vin002]

come on what recession are we talking about?

take a walk at ION and you will know what i mean.

the foreigners esp indons are happily spending their $$$ in singapore buying up branded goods.

property? less than 2000sf they are actually not so keen.

foreigners have not yet returned in a big way but market already so hot.

can you imagine the price level when these cash rich foreigners/private equity funds come back in a big way like in 2007? who can be sure that they won't?

liquidity, low deposit rate, risk aversion to financial products and impact of stimulus measures by many governments globally...

don't under-estimate the combined effect.

for singapore, don't also under-estimate the IR effect in 2010.

for those who miss the boat, my advice is:-

just sit one side quietly and wait for the next cycle.
instead of shouting around that market is collapsing...since begining of the year

Totally agree. And if anyone disagree, please set a timeline like somebody who has mentioned end of this year. For me, I am sure that we will be doing well for this year and very well next year if no other crisis happened.

[cheerful]

LOL .... wat a GOOD & precise one about missing the boat!!

Yup, u nvr know ... maybe the PRC oso contributing to this buying frenzy (but maybe in an unexpected big way)

[yowetan]

I believe by year end, many will jump from their condos....the price is crazy now. Its so crazy to see people queuing for a project and it is heavenly priced at 1kpsf. This is madness.

[teddybear]

As far as I know, biggest buyers are Malaysians & Indonesians, but now more and more PRCs, Indians, even Russians, Arabs etc are buying.

LOL .... wat a GOOD & precise one about missing the boat!!

Yup, u nvr know ... maybe the PRC oso contributing to this buying frenzy (but maybe in an unexpected big way)

[Honesty]

Totally agree. And if anyone disagree, please set a timeline like somebody who has mentioned end of this year. For me, I am sure that we will be doing well for this year and very well next year if no other crisis happened.

Imagine, if you buy a 3 rm property at 1,200 sq ft and @ $1,000 psf, how much you think you need to pay for the 20%. It is $240,000, from cash or cpf, than you loan $960,000 from bank @ interest rate of est 2.6% (aveage over 3 years) your monthly repayment will be about $5,600 per month.

Unless you pay is about $16,000 per month ( 35% of your income ) than you will be able to afford this 1.2 million house.

It is good to see the market go all the way up and up and up....but who can really afford.

How much we think we can sell to the next buyer?

If the interest rate go up, I really can't imagine what will happen.....

[yowetan]

Imagine, if you buy a 3 rm property at 1,200 sq ft and @ $1,000 psf, how much you think you need to pay for the 20%. It is $240,000, from cash or cpf, than you loan $960,000 from bank @ interest rate of est 2.6% (aveage over 3 years) your monthly repayment will be about $5,600 per month.

Unless you pay is about $16,000 per month ( 35% of your income ) than you will be able to afford this 1.2 million house.

It is good to see the market go all the way up and up and up....but who can really afford.

How much we think we can sell to the next buyer?

If the interest rate go up, I really can't imagine what will happen.....

This world is comprise of mad and greedy people. Thats why!

[jlrx]

Imagine, if you buy a 3 rm property at 1,200 sq ft and @ $1,000 psf, how much you think you need to pay for the 20%. It is $240,000, from cash or cpf, than you loan $960,000 from bank @ interest rate of est 2.6% (aveage over 3 years) your monthly repayment will be about $5,600 per month.

Unless you pay is about $16,000 per month ( 35% of your income ) than you will be able to afford this 1.2 million house.

It is good to see the market go all the way up and up and up....but who can really afford.

How much we think we can sell to the next buyer?

If the interest rate go up, I really can't imagine what will happen.....

The interest rate is lower than 2.6%. Now I am using SIBOR-pegged loan ... only 1 point something percent.

The interest rate will not go up because we are in a very bad recession. The governments all over the world are keeping interest rates low and flooding the market with money because this recession is very bad ...

The day the governments raise interest rates, that means the recession is over and the sun has come out.

I think many people are buying now because they have missed the last boat and spent the past few years complaining.

Now that the boat has come down again, and if they miss it again, then they have no more credibility left as a person.

It is now a matter of "personal credibility", rather than about money.

If you buy and the price goes downhill, you will still find many sympathetic ears amongst your cousins, colleagues, uncles and aunties during Chinese New Year gatherings ... They will say "You are not alone, my house also went down ... same here ... I lose even more than you" so you can still spend Chinese New Year together and be "one of them". In fact the recent CNY gatherings we were all competing to see who lost more money.

On the other hand, if you don't buy and the price goes up again, after complaining to your cousins, nephews, colleagues and former schoolmates over the past few CNY about "missing the boat" and then now the prices have come down and you did not buy, you will not find any sympathetic ear anymore. You would also have lost all credibility as a person.

Hence what many people are buying now is not an investment in "property" but an investment in "social acceptance" in family and social gatherings.

[Honesty]

The interest rate is lower than 2.6%. Now I am using SIBOR-pegged loan ... only 1 point something percent.

The interest rate will not go up because we are in a very bad recession. The governments all over the world are keeping interest rates low and flooding the market with money because this recession is very bad ...

The day the governments raise interest rates, that means the recession is over and the sun has come out.

I think many people are buying now because they have missed the last boat and spent the past few years complaining.

Now that the boat has come down again, and if they miss it again, then they have no more credibility left as a person.

It is now a matter of "personal credibility", rather than about money.

If you buy and the price goes downhill, you will still find many sympathetic ears amongst your cousins, colleagues, uncles and aunties during Chinese New Year gatherings ... They will say "You are not alone, my house also went down ... same here ... I lose even more than you" so you can still spend Chinese New Year together and be "one of them". In fact the recent CNY gatherings we were all competing to see who lost more money.

On the other hand, if you don't buy and the price goes up again, after complaining to your cousins, nephews, colleagues and former schoolmates over the past few CNY about "missing the boat" and then now the prices have come down and you did not buy, you will not find any sympathetic ear anymore. You would also have lost all credibility as a person.

Hence what many people are buying now is not an investment in "property" but an investment in "social acceptance" in family and social gatherings.

Wow!!!! I like the way you express the feeling of those buyers....

GREAT...

Can't have any better answer...

[Regulators]

What boat? Is it a sinking boat? I think govt is helping to hype up the pty market (see how the sale of caspian is linked to jurong lake district and developments in kallang is linked to some city fringe projects etc) for the purposes of saving troubled developers and helping them to offload their current stock. HDB prices have reached unimaginable heights (look at the pet DBSS projects and how hdb pxs move in Queenstown) and buyers do not see a great difference in pricing of mass market condos and hdbs which is the reason why some buyers are jumping into the boat. I am sitting here watching how the govt intelligently crafts and manipulate the pty market and we buyers, sellers and investors are the pawns on the big chess board....

The interest rate is lower than 2.6%. Now I am using SIBOR-pegged loan ... only 1 point something percent.

The interest rate will not go up because we are in a very bad recession. The governments all over the world are keeping interest rates low and flooding the market with money because this recession is very bad ...

The day the governments raise interest rates, that means the recession is over and the sun has come out.

I think many people are buying now because they have missed the last boat and spent the past few years complaining.

Now that the boat has come down again, and if they miss it again, then they have no more credibility left as a person.

It is now a matter of "personal credibility", rather than about money.

If you buy and the price goes downhill, you will still find many sympathetic ears amongst your cousins, colleagues, uncles and aunties during Chinese New Year gatherings ... They will say "You are not alone, my house also went down ... same here ... I lose even more than you" so you can still spend Chinese New Year together and be "one of them". In fact the recent CNY gatherings we were all competing to see who lost more money.

On the other hand, if you don't buy and the price goes up again, after complaining to your cousins, nephews, colleagues and former schoolmates over the past few CNY about "missing the boat" and then now the prices have come down and you did not buy, you will not find any sympathetic ear anymore. You would also have lost all credibility as a person.

Hence what many people are buying now is not an investment in "property" but an investment in "social acceptance" in family and social gatherings.

[august]

This world is comprise of mad and greedy people. Thats why!

aiya why u worry about them?
let them be mad and greedy and reap what they sow lah, why you want to save them?

[august]

What boat? Is it a sinking boat? I think govt is helping to hype up the pty market (see how the sale of caspian is linked to jurong lake district and developments in kallang is linked to some city fringe projects etc) for the purposes of saving troubled developers and helping them to offload their current stock. HDB prices have reached unimaginable heights (look at the pet DBSS projects and how hdb pxs move in Queenstown) and buyers do not see a great difference in pricing of mass market condos and hdbs which is the reason why some buyers are jumping into the boat. I am sitting here watching how the govt intelligently crafts and manipulate the pty market and we buyers, sellers and investors are the pawns on the big chess board....

look at the mini bonds saga and u know which side the pap garment stands on, definitely not on the side of the little people ~

[dmonddd]

advisable to buy completed project in prime location.

new projects are being launched by block. the experts are also cautious