Property market sentiments?

[apple3]

We are 4% above 2,283 now and the resistance at 2,400 was tested a few times within the past week. From TA angle, this is bullish. STI will need to wait for S&P500 to move through the 946-950 resistance before it will move beyond 2,400. If you are interested in TA, I suggest you read the TA on STI published by The Edge Singapore weekly.

Obviously you have forgotten the onus of our exchange or simply chose to ignore and pull out different set of arguements, as always. I guess I might as well rest my case here since there bound to have other forumer sick of all your irresponsible pushing of selective, bullish technical data which usually parrot from other site and follow by a claim of your self-pronounce expertise in technical analyst on whatever bullish indicators you came to know about.

By the way, I have copies of Edge both in office and home from my broker. Usually I pull out the middle portion on the properties for some glance and leaving the rest intact. Reading some TA/FA reports is part of my daily routine for making infomed decision/execution for my company.

The edge are design in a much simpler form for pleasure reading which tend to cater more to people like you.

[apple3]

If news is within the expectation (i.e priced in) of the market, it is natural that market will not react to it. If news is not within expectation of the market, then whether the news is negative/positive is less important, it is the market reaction to the news that matter. For example, when the Swine Flu breakout in Mexico was known to the press, the market completely ignored it. In TA, it is a very bullish signal. Similarly, if newspaper everyday is full of negative headlines yet the stock/property market is hot, it is also a very bullish signal. Look at how many people here are interested in HP65's prime properties you can feel it already.

I think you may have miss blackswan intention completely.

And your bullish nature release yet another set of bull that even if make sense, only best suit retail investor playing securities online.

[proud owner]

You are saying that if you can take a nice evening walk in peace and quiet then it is prime? May be you can buy a property near Seletar Reservior, then sell it at >$3000 psf because your consider that is prime (but I doubt even a goondu will buy from you at $1000psf. Surprisely, a lot people are willing pay >$3000psf for Orchard rd - maybe these are goondu to you?).

i am saying that to me ... i would not pay stupid price to share my walkway with 10s of hundreds of people all the time of the day ...

i enjoy a nice quiet stroll after dinner .. which YOUR PRIME SCOTTs and Orchard will never have ..thats all i am saying ...

and at the top of my reply .. i also said TO EACH HIS OWN ...

read carefully before you make a goondu of yourself ...
learn to READ .. dont jump to your own conclusion ..

[jitkiat]

Obviously you have forgotten the onus of our exchange or simply chose to ignore and pull out different set of arguements, as always. I guess I might as well rest my case here since there bound to have other forumer sick of all your irresponsible pushing of selective, bullish technical data which usually parrot from other site and follow by a claim of your self-pronounce expertise in technical analyst on whatever bullish indicators you came to know about.

By the way, I have copies of Edge both in office and home from my broker. Usually I pull out the middle portion on the properties for some glance and leaving the rest intact. Reading some TA/FA reports is part of my daily routine for making infomed decision/execution for my company.

The edge are design in a much simpler form for pleasure reading which tend to cater more to people like you.

Mr apple3, obviously you also forgotten how you laughed at me to mention about possibility of a recovery in property market in Q2 2009 and at that time STI was still below 1,950. I also rest my case.

[teddybear]

"i enjoy a nice quiet stroll after dinner .. which YOUR PRIME SCOTTs and Orchard will never have ".

Is your above statement a joke or portraying your ignorance? Right beside Orchard is the Botanic Garden - the biggest and most beautiful garden in Singapore (and in Asia as well) that has a hundred years of history and proven maintenance record. You say there is no place for nice quiet stroll after dinner if people stay in Orchard?

i am saying that to me ... i would not pay stupid price to share my walkway with 10s of hundreds of people all the time of the day ...

i enjoy a nice quiet stroll after dinner .. which YOUR PRIME SCOTTs and Orchard will never have ..thats all i am saying ...

and at the top of my reply .. i also said TO EACH HIS OWN ...

read carefully before you make a goondu of yourself ...
learn to READ .. dont jump to your own conclusion ..

[proud owner]

"i enjoy a nice quiet stroll after dinner .. which YOUR PRIME SCOTTs and Orchard will never have ".

Is your above statement a joke or portraying your ignorance? Right beside Orchard is the Botanic Garden - the biggest and most beautiful garden in Singapore (and in Asia as well) that has a hundred years of history and proven maintenance record. You say there is no place for nice quiet stroll after dinner if people stay in Orchard?

is it your ignorance .. RIGHT BESIDE ??? try walking from Scotts to botanic garden ... in between you have to fight the crowd ..and dust and dirt and noise and traffic .. and risk having my pet dog stampede

thats what i am saying .. theres no immediate peace downstairs .. unlike the earlier forumer's Sommerville park ... which is alerady QUIET downstairs my friend ..

maybe you prefer the noise .. hence i said To each his own ..

[gfoo]

scotts to botanic gardens completely not walkable - prob be knocked down by a car first not to mention a pet.

Even ardmore to botanic is crazy - uphill, downhill - but you'll be really fit though.

Even quiet areas in the orchard area is no longer quiet. embassy row between alex and tanglin has so much traffic during peak hours, it's a hazard. Same for the road from glen to botanic, and just about everywhere else surrounding orchard.

Really nice, quiet environs i like is sunset way. Everything is open, spacious, v little cars - it's like a mini township by itself. And it's affordable, unlike the GCB closed estate behind the old turf club where Singapore's old money lives

[teddybear]

If you want to be able to walk to Botanic Garden, then you can consider Grange Residences where you just need to walk 500m. You can also walk to Orchard for shopping & food etc. Can you find another place with such conveniency (if you ignore the price)? So, price is still your concern right? Orchard area is for people where price is not a concern, as long as they like the place, the environment, and the surrounding amenities. This explains some of the pricest price tag for properties of even >$5000 psf in MarQ @ Paterson & Orchard Residences. If Orchard is not a good place, you think these people are so goondu as to be willing to pay >$2000 psf?

is it your ignorance .. RIGHT BESIDE ??? try walking from Scotts to botanic garden ... in between you have to fight the crowd ..and dust and dirt and noise and traffic .. and risk having my pet dog stampede

thats what i am saying .. theres no immediate peace downstairs .. unlike the earlier forumer's Sommerville park ... which is alerady QUIET downstairs my friend ..

maybe you prefer the noise .. hence i said To each his own ..

[bargain hunter]

1668 new units sold in May 2009.

[apple3]

Mr apple3, obviously you also forgotten how you laughed at me to mention about possibility of a recovery in property market in Q2 2009 and at that time STI was still below 1,950. I also rest my case.

Hang on there pal.

1. I never link property & STI together unless we are talking about 6 months spread. So please don't hook it up for me.

2. Is Q2-09 property numbers out already? I thought URA usually release around 15th on preceeding month of quarter-end. In this case, around 15th July 2009. So please don't make any assumption. Statistic is a form of art, using different number & benchmark can create all forms of result. You have to agree that the next numbers from URA on Q to Q, H to H and Y to Y will be a better guide acceptable to all parties.

But my challenge to you is the movement of next 2 weeks which had already past.

[apple3]

scotts to botanic gardens completely not walkable - prob be knocked down by a car first not to mention a pet.

Even ardmore to botanic is crazy - uphill, downhill - but you'll be really fit though.

Even quiet areas in the orchard area is no longer quiet. embassy row between alex and tanglin has so much traffic during peak hours, it's a hazard. Same for the road from glen to botanic, and just about everywhere else surrounding orchard.

Really nice, quiet environs i like is sunset way. Everything is open, spacious, v little cars - it's like a mini township by itself. And it's affordable, unlike the GCB closed estate behind the old turf club where Singapore's old money lives

I used to stay in sunset for a while, deep in. The ambience of sunset way is not exactly the same comparing to years ago. And it will get only worse with construction coming along. But oh boy.. I miss the place..

[gfoo]

I used to stay in sunset for a while, deep in. The ambience of sunset way is not exactly the same comparing to years ago. And it will get only worse with construction coming along. But oh boy.. I miss the place..

yeah i remember the actus, the pubs, open park spaces for kids, the clubhouse - are they all gone now?

[teddybear]

Sunset Way like Clementi Park is a place which I think if I live there I will die from many reasons:
- Just to buy 1 single thing have to drive (too far away from any convenience shop). If no car, have to walk up & down the slope for something like 1.5km(?) to get to nearest shop near main road.
- Too quiet, as though in a cemetary. I prefer to hear some noise of cars and people than the crickets sound etc.
- I hate dogs - actually mainly the dog shits after some unpleasant experience (to think some bloody inconsiderate idiot let his dog poo-poo at the swimming pool side and didn't even clean up!).

A person's meat is another person's poison! Ha ha!

scotts to botanic gardens completely not walkable - prob be knocked down by a car first not to mention a pet.

Even ardmore to botanic is crazy - uphill, downhill - but you'll be really fit though.

Even quiet areas in the orchard area is no longer quiet. embassy row between alex and tanglin has so much traffic during peak hours, it's a hazard. Same for the road from glen to botanic, and just about everywhere else surrounding orchard.

Really nice, quiet environs i like is sunset way. Everything is open, spacious, v little cars - it's like a mini township by itself. And it's affordable, unlike the GCB closed estate behind the old turf club where Singapore's old money lives

[novel]

Sunset Way like Clementi Park is a place which I think if I live there I will die from many reasons:
- Just to buy 1 single thing have to drive (too far away from any convenience shop). If no car, have to walk up & down the slope for something like 1.5km(?) to get to nearest shop near main road.
- Too quiet, as though in a cemetary. I prefer to hear some noise of cars and people than the crickets sound etc.
- I hate dogs - actually mainly the dog shits after some unpleasant experience (to think some bloody inconsiderate idiot let his dog poo-poo at the swimming pool side and didn't even clean up!).

A person's meat is another person's poison! Ha ha!

yes agree...if I would to live in Orchard Road I will die too....because after work usually prefer to slow down the pace but imagine I will bump into ppl every min to get to my home.

And now Botanic Garden also becoming very crowded no longer secluded and peaceful.

[Property_Owner]

It is actually easy , you would have to set up a thai company where you owe 49% of shares and then other 3 thai nomenees own another 51% , then you get them to presign transfer of their shares paper , so in case of any hanky-panky you can reassign the shares to any other nominees, they normally do not even know each other and what they own , so it pretty safe . On top of that you lease the same land out of your own company to yourself for 30+30+30 years. For 100% bullettproofness ..
I have 7000m2 of prime land in Samui 300m from the best beach with 240 degree panaramic ocean view in the best area of Samui if you are interested. Surrounded by nice infrastructure, Mango trees, Rocky formations e.t.c. If really interested PM me I will email you the photos.

Dude, you escape the chopping board?

[Property_Owner]

i am saying that to me ... i would not pay stupid price to share my walkway with 10s of hundreds of people all the time of the day ...

i enjoy a nice quiet stroll after dinner .. which YOUR PRIME SCOTTs and Orchard will never have ..thats all i am saying ...

and at the top of my reply .. i also said TO EACH HIS OWN ...

read carefully before you make a goondu of yourself ...
learn to READ .. dont jump to your own conclusion ..

TO EACH HIS OWN

Buy what you like, stay where you like. Rich man doesn't mean got to stay GCB. I might be able to afford a GCB ( not so X ok) but I stay in condo. Why? I like loh. Stay landed so boring. Condo as least can go pool site n see something difference apart from wifey. lol

[gfoo]

TO EACH HIS OWN

Condo as least can go pool site n see something difference apart from wifey. lol

i'm running out of excuses of my daily forays to the pool. 'Honey, i'm gonna to the pool to read a book' just dun cut it no more.

[HP65]

I am German so I already own properties in Europe (Croatia "Rovinj, Berg "outside Munich", and Geneva). I might at one point add a property from Barcelona, when it reaches a good level at which I think the valuation is good. I dont buy property in regions I am not interested in. As I find it more cumbersome to do the neccessary research. Dont get me wrong, London is a great city, but I would never want to live there. I try to be rational with my investments, but I need enough motivation to follow the market for a period of 6-12 months. I am not someone who jumps into such investments.

Hua Hin is interesting, as is Koh Samui. I like Koh Samui, because islands are ussually able to isolate themselves from mainland problems. How ever I have to admit that I am intrigued by the Met in Bangkok. It is a building which polarizes (imo, a landmark building), so I might buy a condo there. With Koh Samui, and Hua Hin I would be more interested in landed property. How ever what I have read up on Thai property laws, does make me a bit hesitant to get into landed. Vietnam seems to be more transparent. Ask me again in 4 months when I am in the region again, and have looked at more properties. I might also buy just across Singapore in Malaysia. The nice thing about these regions compared to Singapore is that I for 3-5 million singapore dollars I can buy several nice properties in countries which have a much greater potential for GDP percentage gain over a period of 10 years or more. So even if a country goes bananas (economically or politically), you still have other properties in the portfolio to balance it out. AS opposed to betting on one horse with a nice Singapore proeperty. So we will see. I like to use the forum to ping pong ideas, as it is a good way to be self-critical. As successful as flippers may be, or speculators in the stock market, I have decided a long time ago that I will not invest that way. I am quite fond of a good nights sleep. So my investment strategy is more based on value-invesment.

By my books, that's a huge portfolio of properties to manage! I can't really spend so much time on my properties, too much time and energy already spent on my business instead of my family. So my properties are more sentimental than value. Nevertheless, most times if we are closely in touch with the markets, we will know when the price has overshoot be it up or down. And I feel Sg is way too high now.

As for london, its mainly because of the charm of the old world, plus i spend a good part of my school days in UK. Its just a hedge in case i send my boys to schools in UK and i feel i can just sell the properties there and pay for their education without worrying about exchange differences.

Not too sure of BKK properties but according to my business partners, if for investments, get near hospitals and the BTS. Hope that helps.

[jitkiat]

This is my first bearish posting

VIX Climbs Past a Key Level, Signaling Trouble for Stocks

• On Monday June 15, 2009, 11:24 am EDT

The stock market's main fear gauge moved past a key level on Monday, indicating possible troubles ahead for the market.


And one options player with deep pockets is making a big bet that volatility will increase sharply, making this a tumultuous summer.


The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, moved past 30, a mark it hasn't closed above since June 4. A VIX (Chicago: VIX) reading of better than 30 generally indicates high volatility that usually accompanies stock market drops.
Following suit, stocks lost more than 1 percent.

The joint moves in the VIX and stocks come just a few days after a big investor bet on the VIX caused tremors in the options market.

One trader on Thursday bought 20,000 July VIX calls at the 45 strike and sold 55 strike calls for an overall premium of 42.5 cents in a trade that cost about $850,000 to execute. The net impact is that the VIX would have to beat the 45.42 level by the July expiration for the investor to make money. The VIX hasn't been past 40 since April 21.

"The last few weeks we've come under 30 and we've been under 30 as investors became more sanguine in their approach," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior strategist at Interactive Brokers. "This was a standout trade that went against the grain."

While there would be no direct correlation between such a huge trade and the actual VIX movement, the bet could be indicative of a shifting mood.
VIX options premiums have been generally drifting higher, with trading last week on July calls for a 35 in the index exceded open interest. Implied volatility on the index also has risen sharply, also suggesting higher moves in the index and tougher sledding for stocks.



The inverse relationship between the stock market and the VIX was in full effect Monday as stocks fell on a stronger dollar and news that
New York manufacturing activity had slowed more than expected in June.

While some of the data points have been better than expected lately for the economy, the New York Fed reading was a reminder that the economy still faces pressure.

"I would say the market's way too sanguine. It's pricing in way too much of a recovery when we haven't got the growth to back it," Wilkinson said. "It's somebody pitting his wits against the rest of the market. My opinion is it will probably look good in a few weeks' time."

[apple3]

yeah i remember the actus, the pubs, open park spaces for kids, the clubhouse - are they all gone now?

they are still there best to my knowledge, except for some pubs changing hands. It has been a while since I shifted to VP so I may be wrong. The last thing I knew was the havoc created by clementi park resident on the enbloc and some landed guys trying to work out something merging their strata title.

[apple3]

This is my first bearish posting

VIX Climbs Past a Key Level, Signaling Trouble for Stocks

• On Monday June 15, 2009, 11:24 am EDT

The stock market's main fear gauge moved past a key level on Monday, indicating possible troubles ahead for the market.


And one options player with deep pockets is making a big bet that volatility will increase sharply, making this a tumultuous summer.


The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, or VIX, moved past 30, a mark it hasn't closed above since June 4. A VIX (Chicago: VIX) reading of better than 30 generally indicates high volatility that usually accompanies stock market drops.
Following suit, stocks lost more than 1 percent.

The joint moves in the VIX and stocks come just a few days after a big investor bet on the VIX caused tremors in the options market.

One trader on Thursday bought 20,000 July VIX calls at the 45 strike and sold 55 strike calls for an overall premium of 42.5 cents in a trade that cost about $850,000 to execute. The net impact is that the VIX would have to beat the 45.42 level by the July expiration for the investor to make money. The VIX hasn't been past 40 since April 21.

"The last few weeks we've come under 30 and we've been under 30 as investors became more sanguine in their approach," said Andrew Wilkinson, senior strategist at Interactive Brokers. "This was a standout trade that went against the grain."

While there would be no direct correlation between such a huge trade and the actual VIX movement, the bet could be indicative of a shifting mood.
VIX options premiums have been generally drifting higher, with trading last week on July calls for a 35 in the index exceded open interest. Implied volatility on the index also has risen sharply, also suggesting higher moves in the index and tougher sledding for stocks.



The inverse relationship between the stock market and the VIX was in full effect Monday as stocks fell on a stronger dollar and news that
New York manufacturing activity had slowed more than expected in June.

While some of the data points have been better than expected lately for the economy, the New York Fed reading was a reminder that the economy still faces pressure.

"I would say the market's way too sanguine. It's pricing in way too much of a recovery when we haven't got the growth to back it," Wilkinson said. "It's somebody pitting his wits against the rest of the market. My opinion is it will probably look good in a few weeks' time."

Thank for the refreshing news, especially coming from you. Just saw it on bloomberg, you are pretty fast huh. Hey dude, your pouring of TA forecasting bullish movement over the weeks has not been forgotten, just so for your info.

[proud owner]

they are still there best to my knowledge, except for some pubs changing hands. It has been a while since I shifted to VP so I may be wrong. The last thing I knew was the havoc created by clementi park resident on the enbloc and some landed guys trying to work out something merging their strata title.

Actus is definitely gone ...

[proud owner]

Sunset Way like Clementi Park is a place which I think if I live there I will die from many reasons:
- Just to buy 1 single thing have to drive (too far away from any convenience shop). If no car, have to walk up & down the slope for something like 1.5km(?) to get to nearest shop near main road.
- Too quiet, as though in a cemetary. I prefer to hear some noise of cars and people than the crickets sound etc.
- I hate dogs - actually mainly the dog shits after some unpleasant experience (to think some bloody inconsiderate idiot let his dog poo-poo at the swimming pool side and didn't even clean up!).

A person's meat is another person's poison! Ha ha!

so sentosa ..with a high price tag ..is prime also lah ?

at least clementi park can walk to some shops ..sentosa ?? not even a petro kiosk to buy cigarette ...

[proud owner]

If you want to be able to walk to Botanic Garden, then you can consider Grange Residences where you just need to walk 500m. You can also walk to Orchard for shopping & food etc. Can you find another place with such conveniency (if you ignore the price)? So, price is still your concern right? Orchard area is for people where price is not a concern, as long as they like the place, the environment, and the surrounding amenities. This explains some of the pricest price tag for properties of even >$5000 psf in MarQ @ Paterson & Orchard Residences. If Orchard is not a good place, you think these people are so goondu as to be willing to pay >$2000 psf?

why should i walk even 500 m ???

Sommervile park itself is nice and quiet .. and the neighbourhood is equally serene ..

whether or not rich people are goondu , i dont know and dont care ..so long as they enjoy noise and crowd at high price, thats their business ...

so are there more CEOs in orchard road proper ? or at Leedon, Cornwall ?

those who splurge on orchard simply have spare cash ... unless you are one of them ... why want to behave like them ? chinese saying put on the emperor's gown also dont look like one ...

[teddybear]

Sentosa - well, some people want to just step out of their house and they can reach the beach and they can anchor their yacht just beside their house. Rich people usually like sea side resort and they found it in Sentosa. You want to compare Clementi Park to Sentosa in this respect?
Again, some people may not like it but that does not mean that it is not worth it (as long as the buyers think it is worth it). However, for sure most buyers think Clementi Park is definitely not even worth $1k psf vs Sentosa >$2k psf.

so sentosa ..with a high price tag ..is prime also lah ?

at least clementi park can walk to some shops ..sentosa ?? not even a petro kiosk to buy cigarette ...

[teddybear]

As I mentioned, 1 person's meat may be another person's poison. However, judging by transacted prices, most people believe Orchard area properties are worth much much more than other places such as the Sommervile Park you mentioned, and that already takes into consideration the so-called nice & quiet etc that can be provided by Sommervile Park (and it seems that these are either not unique to Sommervile Park or not worth much).

why should i walk even 500 m ???

Sommervile park itself is nice and quiet .. and the neighbourhood is equally serene ..

whether or not rich people are goondu , i dont know and dont care ..so long as they enjoy noise and crowd at high price, thats their business ...

so are there more CEOs in orchard road proper ? or at Leedon, Cornwall ?

those who splurge on orchard simply have spare cash ... unless you are one of them ... why want to behave like them ? chinese saying put on the emperor's gown also dont look like one ...

[jitkiat]

A correction in stock market, oil & commodities has finally arrived. It may be good for SG property market in general as weak sellers who are hoping to sell sky high prices will need to sell at more realistic prices given a softening sentiment going forward.

[vin002]

A correction in stock market, oil & commodities has finally arrived. It may be good for SG property market in general as weak sellers who are hoping to sell sky high prices will need to sell at more realistic prices given a softening sentiment going forward.

A correction in stock market is expected. But for property? There is no real co-relationship between the two as property is viewed as illiquid assets. Therefore, the price moment should not be as great as stock.

Agree that some panic seller may view the recent property price rally is due to stock market and start selling cheaper. However, property is often viewed together with job market, demand and supply. As long as no major retrenchment, the price fluctuation should not be too much at the moment. Nevertheless, it is still a good time to sniff out the good deal if you have missed earlier.

From stock market point of view: I agree that going forward, the sentiment is expected to be cautious. However, the valuation will then be attractive again. Especially for those that have missed the rally from Mar. 2009 is not expected to be a good year. However, 2010 is expected to view as improvement as compared with 2009. Therefore, as long as no further extremely bad news appear (eg. H1N1 is incurable), the market should correct and move on.

[jitkiat]

Colliers deputy managing director Grace Ng noted that the Singapore market is 'a bit peculiar' because buying is largely spurred by sentiment; many people 'actually come into the market because they see other people buying . . . rather than calculating yields'.

Even then, rental yields today are likely to be higher than what bank deposits can offer, she added.

=> Amusing ..looks like June new home sales may be peculiar as well.

[novel]

A correction in stock market is expected. But for property? There is no real co-relationship between the two as property is viewed as illiquid assets. Therefore, the price moment should not be as great as stock.

Agree that some panic seller may view the recent property price rally is due to stock market and start selling cheaper. However, property is often viewed together with job market, demand and supply. As long as no major retrenchment, the price fluctuation should not be too much at the moment. Nevertheless, it is still a good time to sniff out the good deal if you have missed earlier.

I used to agree with you that there is no co-relationship but recent stock market rally push the sellers to ask for sky high pricing than the normal range. So since now stock market seems to be down then its time for seller to lower their asking price?