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Thread: Private home prices outstrip peak of '96

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    Default Private home prices outstrip peak of '96

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...00740,00.html?

    Published July 2, 2010

    Private home prices outstrip peak of '96

    But govt cooling measures expected to mitigate hikes; resale HDB prices continue to climb

    By UMA SHANKARI


    (SINGAPORE) Private home prices in Singapore have now surpassed the former all-time peak they achieved in 1996, official data shows.

    Flash estimates released yesterday said that private home prices in Singapore rose 5.2 per cent in Q2 2010 after climbing 5.6 per cent in the first three months of the year.

    This brings the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) price index for private residential property to 184.1 points - 1.5 per cent higher than the previous pre-Asian crisis peak of 181.4 points in Q2 1996.

    Prices of resale HDB flats also continued to climb and set another record in the second quarter. Resale prices rose a steeper 3.8 per cent in Q2, higher than the 2.8 per cent climb seen in Q1.

    For the private residential market, homes in the 'outside central region' (a proxy for suburban mass- market locations) led the price increase with a 5.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter climb in Q2.

    Prices in the 'core central region' (which includes the prime Districts 9 and 10, the financial district and Sentosa Cove) rose 5.1 per cent while prices in the 'rest of central region' rose 4.5 per cent.

    Home prices in the outside central region and rest of central region are higher than they were during the recent 2008 peaks. But prices in the high-end core central region are still about 2 per cent below the 2008 peak.

    While prices climbed across all three regions, analysts pointed out that recent government measures to cool the market have worked to some extent as the price growth has now slowed down for three consecutive quarters - although the deceleration in growth has been slower than what was hoped for, particularly in the mass- market segment.

    'There will be a time lag before we will see a more moderate increase in prices,' said Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng. 'The market has been positive but the government has mitigated this by providing a lot of land. But the supply needs some time to come onto the market.'

    There is also increasing price resistance, as demonstrated by the more than 50 per cent drop in sales of new homes in May. This should help to further moderate price increases - especially in the mass-market segment - to within 5 per cent for each of the next two quarters, said Tay Huey Ying, Colliers International's director of research and advisory.

    Jones Lang LaSalle's head of research for South-east Asia, Chua Yang Liang, added: 'Overall, the falling sales volume in both primary and secondary markets suggests that the overall URA property price index, a lagging indicator of demand, may soften in the next few months.'

    Developers sold just 1,078 private homes in May - about half the 2,208 units they transacted in April.

    Analysts also said that further anti-speculation measures are unlikely as prices in the primary market, which are thought to be a better reflection of current market sentiment, are pointing towards a slowdown. Most analysts expect private home prices to rise a total of 12-15 per cent for the whole of 2010.

    But for the HDB resale market, it is a very different story. The rate of price growth seems to be increasing.

    Eugene Lim, associate director of ERA Asia-Pacific, pointed out that on average, HDB resale prices are increasing at a rate of 3.3 per cent per quarter this year, compared to just 2 per cent per quarter last year.

    The 3.8 per cent increase in prices in Q2 to another new high can be attributed to higher cash- over-valuation (COV) amounts, industry players said.

    'Our Q2 2010 transactions show a median COV of $30,000 for all flat types across all estates, while HDB's Q1 2010 results showed an overall median COV of $25,000,' said PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail.

    ERA's transactions also show that the median COV has increased across all flat types. For three-room flats, the median COV is now $29,000 compared to $22,000 in Q1; four-room flats $32,000 ($25,000 in Q1); five-room flats $36,000 ($28,000); and executive flats $40,000 ($30,000).

    HDB on Wednesday said it has launched 2,696 new build-to-order (BTO) flats to ensure that there is an adequate supply of new flats to meet housing demand - the largest number of such flats ever offered at one go.

    But this might not satisfy demand from all corners.

    'Though HDB has increased the supply of new flats, these cater predominantly to the first-timers and those who can wait three years for these new flats to be built,' said ERA's Mr Lim.

    'For upgraders, permanent residents and those who have immediate housing needs, the resale market is the only source.'

    He expects HDB resale prices to increase 12-15 per cent for the whole year.


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    http://www.straitstimes.com/PrimeNew...ry_548397.html

    Jul 2, 2010

    Prices of private homes hit new peak

    Experts expect more rises this year but at a slower rate

    By Joyce Teo


    PRIVATE home prices in Singapore are now at their highest level ever, eclipsing even the previous 1996 peak.

    Official estimates show prices rose a higher-than-expected 5.2 per cent in the second quarter after a 5.6 per cent jump in the first. That means private home prices have risen 11.1 per cent so far this year.

    Prices, now 1.5 per cent above the 1996 high, are expected to continue to edge up this year given the positive economic outlook, property experts forecast.

    But the rises should moderate as the market is no longer feverish, having slowed to a more sustainable level with many more sites on the way, they said.

    CB Richard Ellis' executive director, residential, Mr Joseph Tan, said the ample supply of residential land to be released by the Government will ensure a more stable supply in the longer term. 'As sales momentum becomes less frenzied, home prices will stabilise,' he said.

    The Government has lined up a record amount of land for sale in the second half of the year and yesterday released three sites for sale.

    One is an executive condominium site in Jurong West which can yield about 460 units. The other two sites are in Miltonia Close and Bedok Town Centre. Together, they can yield about 1,300 homes.

    Other data out yesterday showed that Housing Board resale prices rose 3.8 per cent to a new record high in the same period, giving strong support to 'mass market' private homes - generally the less expensive private homes. This came after HDB this week offered 2,696 build-to-order flats in its largest ever single launch.

    In the private mass market, buyers such as HDB upgraders are increasingly reluctant to pay sky-high prices, noted Colliers International's director of research and advisory, Ms Tay Huey Ying.

    Preliminary estimates released yesterday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed that mass market non- landed private homes rose at a faster clip of 5.7 per cent to a new high, compared with 4.3 per cent in the first quarter.

    These prices are now a hefty 14.2 per cent above the previous 2008 peak.

    Mr Tan said this could be attributed to higher price levels set at new launches such as Tree House and The Minton, as well as rising prices of resale deals in areas where several government sites had been sold in the past six to nine months.

    In central Singapore, non-landed home prices moved up 5.1 per cent, from 4.4 per cent in the first quarter. It was only in city fringe areas that prices of non-landed homes rose at a slower 4.5 per cent, compared with a furious 7.9 per cent first-quarter jump.

    'Individual sellers on the resale front, especially those who had bought their properties before the 2007 boom, are now making capital gains in the region of 80-90 per cent,' noted ERA Asia Pacific associate director Eugene Lim.

    Since late May, there has been a sales slowdown owing to the euro zone crisis, a lacklustre stock market and high asking prices, but home prices have generally remained firm. Sales of new, private homes halved to 1,078 units in May, from April.

    Mr Lim said developers are unlikely to cut prices for new launches to sell more units as most have strong balance sheets.

    Still, the slower sales will affect sentiment, said Cushman and Wakefield managing director Donald Han. The pace of price rises will slow down with the resale market first to be hit. The full effects will be felt from this quarter, he said.

    For the whole year, property experts are mostly looking at price increases of about 15 per cent. Estimates range from 12 per cent to as much as 20 per cent.

    'After the football World Cup season, people will look at whether the West is coping well and Singapore's economic growth and policies. Economists revising higher their growth estimates means that prices are likely to rise,' said Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.

    'On the other hand, ample supply has translated to developers being more selective in bidding for sites. Land costs would come off and that would mitigate price rises six months down the road.'

    Looking further ahead, Ngee Ann Polytechnic real estate lecturer Nicholas Mak said the risk of a price correction could grow if uncertainties in global financial markets hurt market sentiment, and if the large impending supply of government land leads to a private home glut.

    URA will update its second quarter price data in four weeks.

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    Will history repeat itself?



    Business Times 27 April 2010

    S’pore property market may be near peak

    (SINGAPORE) The rising prices seen in the local property market are unlikely to come down anytime soon, even though the market might be near its peak, said CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun at a panel discussion on Singapore's building and construction industry.
    Speaking at the graduation ceremony of a three-month course for professionals in the building and construction industry at the Singapore Management University (SMU), Mr Song said that the low interest rate environment, combined with the view that property is an asset class that can be leveraged upon, may continue to keep prices up.
    'And if you take the view that it doesn't look like (interest) rates are going to go up anytime soon this year - and even if rates go up it is going up in an environment where there is growth opportunity and growth momentum - any tightening at this point will be accompanied by strong growth,' he said.
    Also pushing up prices are increases in demand from both local and foreign buyers, added Mr Song.
    However, the market might be near its peak, if historical data is anything to go by.
    The year-on-year increase at this juncture, said Mr Song, has hit 30 per cent.
    'I notice that when we get to a point where property prices year-on-year start to reach the region of 30-40 per cent, it tends to signal the peak of the market over previous cycles, so we are nearly there in terms of year-on-year numbers,' said Mr Song.
    The panel discussion - which included panellists such as Keppel Land group chief executive Kevin Wong, WingTai Asia's property director Chng Chee Beow and City Developments Ltd's deputy general manager for design and projects Anthony Chia - also touched on growth in Asia, with all the developers on the panel expressing an interest to expand within the region.
    Keppel Land, for one, is looking to have 50 per cent of its earnings coming from overseas markets, said Mr Wong.
    Keppel Land's earnings from overseas in FY2009 represented about 31 per cent of its attributable profit.
    But venturing overseas is not easy, and to turn into a successful global entity, it is important to know the target market, said Mr Chia.
    'There is very little shortcut to that and that's how tough it is in some of these foreign markets . . . it's all about culture, it's all about people and understanding the market.'





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    i think a few more banks should go bust...i will cheong full steam to buy when prices dip to 09 levels again....

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    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...00740,00.html?

    He expects HDB resale prices to increase 12-15 per cent for the whole year.

    From the above graphs it is obvious which one needs more govt intervention. Instead of stepping in to private prices govt should do more to clamp down on HDB absurd COV's etc.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    i think a few more banks should go bust...i will cheong full steam to buy when prices dip to 09 levels again....
    u mean prices will dip to bottom of 09? y u tink so?

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    u mean prices will dip to bottom of 09? y u tink so?
    It's unlikely. We are going through a volatile period. Can buy some gold and stocks when there is a dip for people who can hold for 6-9 months - from the ehief economist of a foreign bank.

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    pty is cyclical mah...the current run up i think is fueled by the coming election. current highs have already surpassed 1996/7 and prices are historical now. when election over, i think the market should correct. i wont say it will dip to bottom of 09, but a correction is impending.

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    u mean prices will dip to bottom of 09? y u tink so?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    i think a few more banks should go bust...i will cheong full steam to buy when prices dip to 09 levels again....
    Why need to cheong full steam leh...
    You forgot or no sure whether to buy when during Q1/Q2 2009 hah??

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    market won't crash. buy more before it's too late, and since interest rates are so low, make sure borrow to the hilt to maximize dollars.


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    hahaha...woohoo!

    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    market won't crash. buy more before it's too late, and since interest rates are so low, make sure borrow to the hilt to maximize dollars.


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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    hahaha...woohoo!
    it's true. mm units are so cheap quantum wise, regardless of psf. so buy now before prices increase. come TOP confirm can rent out as there is so much foreign talent still coming in, and they will be hungry to rent all over the island, even geylang. hdb prices will never fall even tho tens if thousands of supply is coming onstream - look at all the ballots - so mass market will continue to be supported by an unending profit stream from upgraders. not to mention mrt stations once announced it'll truly increase property prices by 50%!

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    WOWWWWWWWWW

    another 50% increase fromhere b4 crash?

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    What was the exact cause of the standstill in property prices in 2002 to 2006? Too much excess empty hdb flats lying around?

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    wow.. gfoo very bullish.. dare to borrow to the max..

    So now should buy mass market or move up next level to prime?

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    Quote Originally Posted by azeoprop
    What was the exact cause of the standstill in property prices in 2002 to 2006? Too much excess empty hdb flats lying around?
    Ya man... The thoughts of excess HDB lying in Jurong West Extension or Fernvale then still lingers in my mind...

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    Quote Originally Posted by focus
    wow.. gfoo very bullish.. dare to borrow to the max..

    So now should buy mass market or move up next level to prime?
    buy mass market - affordable!!! prime useless lah. mass market got angelina jolie and brad pitt. prime got no facilities

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    buy mass market - affordable!!! prime useless lah. mass market got angelina jolie and brad pitt. prime got no facilities

    hahaha walau eh ...bro

    i hope people truly understand what you are saying ....ahhahah

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    Just wondering what can the Fed do if the economy fails to recover even with such ultra low interest rates?

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    hahaha walau eh ...bro

    i hope people truly understand what you are saying ....ahhahah
    this type of analysis i don't even have to create anything new. just cut and paste other people's posts from the various threads on this forum.

    Here's are some from the middle of nowhere in serangoon:
    "Location is good except simple amenities"; "size small but location pretty ok"

    Here's another one close to geylang:
    "I believed it is still lacking behind its full potential!!"

    The best thing is geylang "whole row of mishmash of religious houses and huay kuans including a myriad of churches, chapels, tibetan temples, associations", plus all the china foreign talent walking about downstairs, priced at $1100, and people buy.

    but because it's "Mins from Kallang Sports Hub. Mins from Paya Lebar Commercial Hub. Direct access to Nicoll Highway & CBD. Close to 24 hour food outlets" that's why it's undervalued!

    buy buy buy, borrow to the hilt!

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    it's true. mm units are so cheap quantum wise, regardless of psf. so buy now before prices increase. come TOP confirm can rent out as there is so much foreign talent still coming in, and they will be hungry to rent all over the island, even geylang. hdb prices will never fall even tho tens if thousands of supply is coming onstream - look at all the ballots - so mass market will continue to be supported by an unending profit stream from upgraders. not to mention mrt stations once announced it'll truly increase property prices by 50%!
    WOWWWWWWWWW

    another 50% increase fromhere b4 crash?
    The previous bullrun from July 1990 to May 1996 took the index from 56.4 to 181.4 (up 220%) before crashing to 100 points in Nov 1998 (down 45%).

    If history repeats itself, gfoo will be able to sell (although I've never recommended selling properties in the first place) his Sail@Marina at $10,000 psf in May 2016 and buy it back at $5,500 psf in Nov 2018.


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    completely agree w you - i'll never sell.
    neither should anyone.
    just buy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    this type of analysis i don't even have to create anything new. just cut and paste other people's posts from the various threads on this forum.

    Here's are some from the middle of nowhere in serangoon:
    "Location is good except simple amenities"; "size small but location pretty ok"
    Quoted me! Location pretty ok only in terms of proximity to MRT station. Not really ok if using other criteria.

    Even location is ok, price is not ok to many..

    The only analysis that you need to know is buy when the transaction volume is low. Sell when the transaction volume is high. Not need guru.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    completely agree w you - i'll never sell.
    neither should anyone.
    just buy.
    PROPERTISM!

    Quote Originally Posted by cashrich
    Quoted me! Location pretty ok only in terms of proximity to MRT station. Not really ok if using other criteria.

    Even location is ok, price is not ok to many..

    The only analysis that you need to know is buy when the transaction volume is low. Sell when the transaction volume is high. Not need guru.
    Wrong.

    It shoud be "Buy when the transaction volume is low. Buy when the transaction volume is high".

    PROPERTISM Rule No. 1 - Property prices always go up in the long term hence properties should only be bought and not sold.




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    ppty prices is not gg to up by 50% b4 next crash anymore....too conservative....its gona be another 220% jump from here!

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    wah...ur tune change a lot from last time liao.....last time ascentia sky and centro at 1200psf seems unbelievable to many here and it seems investors here are all changing the tune.....i for one will still never pay over 1k psf for places like jurong or yishun.

    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    completely agree w you - i'll never sell.
    neither should anyone.
    just buy.

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    but come to tink about it...in the 80s....nobody wud expect prices to increase so many folds in 20 over yrs time

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    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    but come to tink about it...in the 80s....nobody wud expect prices to increase so many folds in 20 over yrs time
    in the 80's the biggest worry was HOW TO PASS MY IPPT ..

    where got time and energy to think property ?

    give me a tree with shade i also can sleep there

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    wah...u do army ippt in the 80s? if that is the case, i am more than 10 yrs ur junior



    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    in the 80's the biggest worry was HOW TO PASS MY IPPT ..

    where got time and energy to think property ?

    give me a tree with shade i also can sleep there

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    i was still playing marbles and riding on school buses in the 80s

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