The Estuary

[amk]

... when everyone becomes an expert in property, it's the sign a bubble is forming

give it another year, time to exit liao ..

Follow Mr Kwek : "Sell on the way up".

[stalingrad]

... when everyone becomes an expert in property, it's the sign a bubble is forming

give it another year, time to exit liao ..

Follow Mr Kwek : "Sell on the way up".

another contrarian indicator is the number of postings on this website. Back in 2008-09, there was one or two new postings on the whole website every week, sometimes zero.

Now, there are at least 30 or 40 new postings every day, and I counted 120 one day last week. a sign that the market is peaking?

another bad sign is that even the "common" folks are getting into the market. As indicated by someone last week, a group of hawkers were seen gueuing to buy the estuary. Warren buffet once said that he knew the market was peaking when he heard shoeshine boys talk about stocks and bragged about how easy it was to make money in the stock market.

[teddybear]

So what do you reckon people to do? All sell and rent for time being? I have heard of too many cases where people sell their own residential properties just to pay much more to buy another residential property to stay in. Moral of the story? (Always stay invested in property (at least 1 for own stay) - Ops, I step into jlrx's territory of "Propertism"!).

wISH TO REITERATE that i'm neutral here, but my take
is 2-3 years DOWN the road, property prices will be lower
than what it is now, how much is ANYBODY'S guess...

[Condorich]

The most important thing in property is to buy something you can afford so that you can ride out the downs in property prices with a good holding power. You need to take a mid to long term view (5 to 10 years) of your investments in properties. Property prices will eventually increase with inflation and a higher standard of living, although there will be ups and downs in between. People who make losses in properties are those who over commit and without a strong holding power. No doubt there are some who do make a quick gain, but a safe bet is to be able to hold out your property for at least 5 to 10 years. Quick gains are for the stock markets, not property markets.

Just to share a very good and useful blog..

http://smartpropertybuyer.blogspot.c...singapore.html

It has not been updated for a while and I am suspecting that someone is busy with real property deals or lurking somewhere in this forum. The charts shown are very similar to jlrx's, perhaps its him. Don't really know.

From the graph, you would know that there's up and downs. The real gurus are the ones who bought at the lowest trough and the rest is history. The average winners, nevertheless are the ones who held on to their buys and still win in the long term, however, they are stuck for a long long time... many examples for those who bought in 1997 peak.. hope that it is not repeated for the 2010 peak (if I am correct about it being the peak).

With no offence really, I agree that properties are meant to be bought, not sold. A winner may emerge even from the worst investment choices made, if held long enough... >5 yrs or even >10 yrs?. Let's continue to agree to disagree.

[teddybear]

Why see the hawkers no up? There are many millionaires hawkers in singapore driving 7 series BMW and S-series Merc! They are smarter than many others...

another contrarian indicator is the number of postings on this website. Back in 2008-09, there was one or two new postings on the whole website every week, sometimes zero.

Now, there are at least 30 or 40 new postings every day, and I counted 120 one day last week. a sign that the market is peaking?

another bad sign is that even the "common" folks are getting into the market. As indicated by someone last week, a group of hawkers were seen gueuing to buy the estuary. Warren buffet once said that he knew the market was peaking when he heard shoeshine boys talk about stocks and bragged about how easy it was to make money in the stock market.

[KarenK]

Yes I would agree too... at least he is very frank about the lay out... like what karenk said before.. take the good and bad.

.

I hear my name once again and hear I appear....ha ha....

like what I said before, be sure u can take the bad along with the good before u buy. there's no perfect property. i bot a unit at meadows @ peirce which has a lot of dissenters and nay-sayers. nevertheless I bot it with my eyes wide open as the positives outweigh the negatives for my situation. even now despite many folks criticising it and condemning the project, I still feel a warm glow whenever I think about my purchase. heck care what others have to say. always be confident in your purchase and be contented. there'll never be a perfect property and there'll always be a better property. however whether it is meant to be yours is another matter altogether.... just my 2 cents' worth...

[ay123]

The most important thing in property is to buy something you can afford so that you can ride out the downs in property prices with a good holding power. You need to take a mid to long term view (5 to 10 years) of your investments in properties. Property prices will eventually increase with inflation and a higher standard of living, although there will be ups and downs in between. People who make losses in properties are those who over commit and without a strong holding power. No doubt there are some who do make a quick gain, but a safe bet is to be able to hold out your property for at least 5 to 10 years. Quick gains are for the stock markets, not property markets.

yes i agree.....buy within yr mean, don over commit, powerful (holding power) enough to storm any crisis...... i think these are the basic rules to follow and u will not be in deep shit. property is buy for long term and in long term, i believe the price will still go up

[Regulators]

If Estuary hits $1k psf, every property owner in this forum would be getting a huge windfall, especially those who own properties in the central region and bought their properties there below 1k psf. It will take a couple of property upcycles to drive Estuary to above 1k psf. I am not saying it is impossible, and if it does happen, i think a lot of property owners owning properties in better districts would be delighted.

Attachment 1409

There is plenty of empty land in Yishun Ave 1. If you refer to the URA Master Plan 2008, you will see that the entire stretch of Yishun Ave 1 (up to and beyond OCC) is slated for Residential Development. When these units are released/launched, the psf could well exceed $1,000. This will help to preserve the value/price of The Estuary, just as what The Estuary is doing to Orchid Park Condo now.

[Regulators]

i know the prawn noodle seller at adam road. he once told me he made 40k a month on average and his job is just going around collecting money everyday with his workers slogging their asses out at his chain of stalls. he has only primary school education.

Why see the hawkers no up? There are many millionaires hawkers in singapore driving 7 series BMW and S-series Merc! They are smarter than many others...

[Condorich]

I hear my name once again and hear I appear....ha ha....

Yup, that's the rule.. sometimes, you gotta buy even if you don't like it if your wife likes it more than you. The opposite is true.

Take the good and bad. The verdict will be out when you see it for the very first time... the actual units, the actual size, the actual view and the actual results. Saved by inflation and another buyer who appreciates it like the way you do. That's it.

[DC33_2008]

Thanks for the advice.But sorry, beg to differ. There are couple of assumptions you've made which I think its senseless.

U are saying Yishun is a Ulu place, its your perception again. I feel Yishun is a mature estate and not ulu at all. So it still boils down to differences in opinion. Everyday when I drive home, so many cars heading towards Yishun and sometimes got into traffic jams, and now u tell me this is a ulu area. Oh my god! I suggest you go find out the population of this area first b4 you label here as Ulu.

For once, back in 10yrs time, I always think Boon Lay is a damn ulu and inaccessible area until when I see how well it has developed, providing good amedities,good job opportunities, transportations and reasonable pricing condos. What makes u think Yishun lack such potential? Anyway, Job opportunites, amendities and transportation are on its way to Yishun so its natural for Yishun dwellers to stay positive and thats also the main reason why Estuary's sales is so good.

Like what you've already said, 1 bedder has not been tested in the suburbs yet, so what makes u be so sure this investment will not work? I prefer to explore possibilities in things that are scarce and unpolished. That is where you can find its potential. Else how come diamond and gold all sell so expensively?

You are making another mistake in your assumption again. If Estuary 1 bedder has to be priced at 2.1K for rental, do you think the rest of its neighbourhood condo (which are much bigger) is willing to settle for just $2K rental? They will definitely adjust their rental accordingly. You must understand, change is constant. Don't always look at things at a standstill, there are chain reaction that affects one another. How can you not understand such simple theory?
Don't assume orchid park residence are dumb, they will look at the rental and sales of Estuary and adjust their rental and selling price accordingly. If they still settle for the same rental or sales price for the next 10 yrs, I will change my surname.

Anyway, who told u I bought the unit for $5xxK? Its your own assumption again. I've already worked out my rental/profit return b4 you gave me that piece of advise. So in other words, your calculation for the rental yield don't apply to me anymore since you already get my purchase price wrong. Anyway, save the effort in calculating for me, and trust me that I can do a better job, seriously. I thank you for your kind intention.

Like what you said, expats are working class and ard what time they usually knock off? According to singaporean's working profile and statistic, many will probably reach home around 7pm (if they are lucky), I think if they want to see the sun also got no chance already. So i don't think this is a big issue, in fact no issue. Even you return home early, so what if there's sunlight entering into your room? Just turn on the aircon and pull your curtains for awhile la. Which singaporean don't on their aircon everyday? Even no west sun or even its raining, I still on my aircon and pull my curtain in shaughnessy. Its such a natural thing due to our climate.

And what makes u think smaller unit will get toasted by sun? Comeon lah, according to simple theory, the smaller the room, the faster for the room to get cooled when aircon is on. In shaughnessy, it takes me quite a while for the whole room to be cooled since my room is damn big.

The so called "guru(s)" here in my pt of view are a group of people who agrees upon one another, and is cynical of things that had not been tested yet. Why not let us keep an open mind and see how well Estuary 1 bedder performs in the near future. Isn't it a better option rather than debating here endlessly?

You may want to check if the capacity of your air-conditioning unit is undersized. Is it a 9000 BTU or larger than 18000 BTU.

[Regulators]

I would like to dedicate this song to all Estuary buyers, one of my favourite numbers

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAIKz...eature=related

[Moo2010]

Hi guys,

Deeply sorry if I had stepped into anyone's toes while debating abt Estuary.
To make this place more peaceful and with less postings, I think I will not participate in any conversation anymore. Sorry for all the inconvenience caused.

Through all debates, I've learned quite a number of things from you guys.
Hope there are still opportunities and platforms to share though we are bound to have differences in our opinion. I wish everyone here all the best in your property investment.

Cheers

[Squall8888]

Yup. Buy something comfortable and within your means. In the long run, you will be better than those without buying. There is always cycle (what thing doesn't? Even your manhood has up and down). But over the long run, you are SOOOOOO much better than those complaining HDB prices are high. Because those are the talkers only but no action from them. Complain for many years but during downturn early last year, where are they? Still planning which newspaper to write to. So I can only say, too bad for them.

In short, those who buy Estuary are better off than those who didn't buy anything.

The most important thing in property is to buy something you can afford so that you can ride out the downs in property prices with a good holding power. You need to take a mid to long term view (5 to 10 years) of your investments in properties. Property prices will eventually increase with inflation and a higher standard of living, although there will be ups and downs in between. People who make losses in properties are those who over commit and without a strong holding power. No doubt there are some who do make a quick gain, but a safe bet is to be able to hold out your property for at least 5 to 10 years. Quick gains are for the stock markets, not property markets.

[Squall8888]

Yah. Don't dog eyes. They could be earning 10 times more than you anytime.

Why see the hawkers no up? There are many millionaires hawkers in singapore driving 7 series BMW and S-series Merc! They are smarter than many others...

[Squall8888]

Forum is open to anyone. That is why it is a forum and not a speaker corner or presentation.

I won't say it is a good buy for investment but that is purely my opinion. Many said Sail was not worth it when it was launched. But don't worry because you are better off than those fussy people who are still complaining today about high HDB prices. To me, is it high? I mean in Yishun, you can easily find something below 200k for a 3 bedrooms. 90% loan only pay around $400 a month.

But you know, nowadays people want a bungalow with seaview, IR, MRT, shopping centre. Better still, they want it under 100k. If that happens, I will be the first to sell all my properties.

Hi guys,

Deeply sorry if I had stepped into anyone's toes while debating abt Estuary.
To make this place more peaceful and with less postings, I think I will not participate in any conversation anymore. Sorry for all the inconvenience caused.

Through all debates, I've learned quite a number of things from you guys.
Hope there are still opportunities and platforms to share though we are bound to have differences in our opinion. I wish everyone here all the best in your property investment.

Cheers

[stalingrad]

Yah. Don't dog eyes. They could be earning 10 times more than you anytime.

Okay, I stand corrected. hawkers buying is now classified as a bullish sign.

[stalingrad]

Hi guys,

Deeply sorry if I had stepped into anyone's toes while debating abt Estuary.
To make this place more peaceful and with less postings, I think I will not participate in any conversation anymore. Sorry for all the inconvenience caused.

Through all debates, I've learned quite a number of things from you guys.
Hope there are still opportunities and platforms to share though we are bound to have differences in our opinion. I wish everyone here all the best in your property investment.

Cheers

people come into this forum expecting others to be green with envy with their purchases. When they instead receive jeers, they leave. It's just typically human.

[jwong71]

Yup. Buy something comfortable and within your means. In the long run, you will be better than those without buying. There is always cycle (what thing doesn't? Even your manhood has up and down). But over the long run, you are SOOOOOO much better than those complaining HDB prices are high. Because those are the talkers only but no action from them. Complain for many years but during downturn early last year, where are they? Still planning which newspaper to write to. So I can only say, too bad for them.

In short, those who buy Estuary are better off than those who didn't buy anything.

Worst are those who didnt buy, but keep talking down the market.

Etc If i have missed the boat,i would just shut my trap and just quietly wait for opportunity..

Instead of shouting down,and letting all forumers to know wad a soreloser they are..
wao phiang, im aso felt ashamed for them. Let alone them,dont they feel anything abt themselves?

[Avatar]

Worst are those who didnt buy, but keep talking down the market.

Etc If i have missed the boat,i would just shut my trap and just quietly wait for opportunity..

Instead of shouting down,and letting all forumers to know wad a soreloser they are..
wao phiang, im aso felt ashamed for them. Let alone them,dont they feel anything abt themselves?

Yeah...this statement is so true. Worse if one failed to get a unit and start talking down the project. You can see one's mentality when the person's son couldn't get into a good school and started negative talks abt the school.

[Condorich]

Hi guys,

Deeply sorry if I had stepped into anyone's toes while debating abt Estuary.
To make this place more peaceful and with less postings, I think I will not participate in any conversation anymore. Sorry for all the inconvenience caused.

Through all debates, I've learned quite a number of things from you guys.
Hope there are still opportunities and platforms to share though we are bound to have differences in our opinion. I wish everyone here all the best in your property investment.

Cheers

Didn't want to respond to you anymore since I have stated that earlier. However, with your last post, I just cannot allow you to go without these few comments since I might have agitated you or offended you.

Moo2010... please dont take it to hard. If you have made the right decision, you can always share with us again later. Of course, we will be happy for you. If you have made the wrong decision, you are always welcome to share later too. Some of us may actually feel your pain.

This is a forum, just share. The regulars may sounded harsh but some of their advices are really good and have been good so far.. I've also learnt from them, you just need to know which are good advices and which are not. They have nothing to gain with their friendly or critical advice... may even get criticised for being a busy body or someone who is sourgrapes.

BTW, to those who say criticise only and cannot buy, please remember, this is a forum on buying and selling condo's. It's never a forum about I can buy or cannot buy. Get it right. As always, don't ever look down on anyone.

There will always be two sides to a coin. The truth hurts. take care Moo2010.

[ksh]

The most important thing in property is to buy something you can afford so that you can ride out the downs in property prices with a good holding power. You need to take a mid to long term view (5 to 10 years) of your investments in properties. Property prices will eventually increase with inflation and a higher standard of living, although there will be ups and downs in between. People who make losses in properties are those who over commit and without a strong holding power. No doubt there are some who do make a quick gain, but a safe bet is to be able to hold out your property for at least 5 to 10 years. Quick gains are for the stock markets, not property markets.

fclim san, Well said... Wat i guessed earlier is not an inducement
to buy or sell...

[ksh]

eng eng lim kopi, hee hee...

[Moo2010]

Didn't want to respond to you anymore since I have stated that earlier. However, with your last post, I just cannot allow you to go without these few comments since I might have agitated you or offended you.

Moo2010... please dont take it to hard. If you have made the right decision, you can always share with us again later. Of course, we will be happy for you. If you have made the wrong decision, you are always welcome to share later too. Some of us may actually feel your pain.

This is a forum, just share. The regulars may sounded harsh but some of their advices are really good and have been good so far.. I've also learnt from them, you just need to know which are good advices and which are not. They have nothing to gain with their friendly or critical advice... may even get criticised for being a busy body or someone who is sourgrapes.

BTW, to those who say criticise only and cannot buy, please remember, this is a forum on buying and selling condo's. It's never a forum about I can buy or cannot buy. Get it right. As always, don't ever look down on anyone.

There will always be two sides to a coin. The truth hurts. take care Moo2010.

haha, no worries, I'm more worried I might have hurt others. So for the welfare of everyone, sayonara...and take care!

[fclim]

Okay, I stand corrected. hawkers buying is now classified as a bullish sign.

Firstly, how can you tell if they are hawkers? You mean, they bring their Char Kway Teow frying pan to the showflat meh? Secondly, these "hawkers" are likely to pay in full for their condo using cold hard cash. Why, because the banks won't give them 80% loan due to their uncertain income source and they are not likely to produce an Income Tax statement that says they earned $500K in 2009 to get the loan.

[Squall8888]

Of course. Probably, their IR8A only shows they make 24k a year

Firstly, how can you tell if they are hawkers? You mean, they bring their Char Kway Teow frying pan to the showflat meh? Secondly, these "hawkers" are likely to pay in full for their condo using cold hard cash. Why, because the banks won't give them 80% loan due to their uncertain income source and they are not likely to produce an Income Tax statement that says they earned $500K in 2009 to get the loan.

[fclim]

Of course. Probably, their IR8A only shows they make 24k a year

30k a year. Minimum annual income needed to employ a maid.

[2824]

So as we approach the official launch, how many units have been sold? is it still 300+ or have it reached 400+.

Anybody with the latest figure?

[sleek]

So as we approach the official launch, how many units have been sold? is it still 300+ or have it reached 400+.

Anybody with the latest figure?

Understand from an agent that over 500 units sold to date liao.

[gosperence]

Yes, the agent i bought told me likely all units will be released this weekend and they expect 95% sold out, leaving some odd units.