The Estuary

[Condorich]

I agree with you 100%. This party should run into end 2010 / early 2011.

and please repeat after Mr Kwek: "sell on the way up". (not only developers, urself too )

Condorich: ur article has this part that says "median income ... is $12,500 for private flats".

It's private and not HDB... more than 80% are HDB dwellers? not too specific with the figures but it is around there, maybe even above 85-90%....

Private addresses... should go get something more fitting of their status. I thought that this is a mass market condo... what are those people doing there? Downgrading from their current home (with profit) and then retire in the suburbs? Even if they do a switch from the private in Yishun or around Yishun. I would think that it is from the same limited pool. Which means... those older private property is on the way up in Pricing to the real HDB upgraders.

amk thanks anyway. Point taken.

[ksh]

I say stay cautious and open yor eyes big big...

[Condorich]

Sorry i meant pte property buyers, but thanks for the info - huge eye opener.

Crunching the BT numbers...

Out of 1.12 Households in Singapore:

1/2rm HDB - 4.4%: $650
3rm HDB - 20.2%: $2,660
4/5rm HDB - 58.6%: $5,272
Pte Ppty - 15.9%: $11,331

This means:
- 1/4 of Singapore households make less than $2.8K
- 3/4 of Singapore households make less than $5.3K


Sounds a bit extreme leh

190,400 Singapore households

No worries.. You may not know the real heartlander folks... Anyway I believe that the real social divide is really getting wider and wider. Out from the report...

Table 7 Average Monthly Household Income from Work Per Household Member
among Employed Households by Decile, those with household income > $8463 = 91st to 100th decile.. the real mass market upgraders.

As always, a gd luck to all...

[amk]

Wat happened here and now is akin to Dubai at its good times

sorry totally disagree. Dubai is a huge money laundering machine, including pty. (For example, at the time, the price of a pty in cash with no loan was *higher* than buying it with a loan. ) And with oil at $200, huge amt of cash was flowing at that time in that region. SG is far far from it.

Of course many people can afford a 1 mil porperty right now
in this Low interest rate / High Prop price environment, when
it reverse to High / Low respectively and we shall see how...

This is what I call risk taking at the individual level, who am I to say he's right or wrong ? At one end u have the feds keep on saying "low rates will be for an extended period", at the other end you have a few MM/SMs saying "HDB asset appreciation is the policy", so you make your judgment. It could either be 1996 deja vu, or an opportunity like stock market at Mar 2009. It's your call. (Moo if u r reading this, I respect your decision. Studio rental in the east is an unknown market, you could well be right!)

[gosperence]

Why is everyone attacking Moo?
But buying a west facing studio is not wise leh....i walked out at 5pm today the weather is damn hot. Imaging now condo with all glass panel, even with curtain, it's hot hot hot like sauna.
I'm sure there will be demand as expat are roaming all around singapore now. Few years ago i didn't see them drinking at kopitiam in the heartland, now u see them every corner u go.
Cube 8 is having difficulties of selling due to the whole block is west facing, and PIE is just on your balcony. Never thought of even stepping into the showflat.

[gosperence]

Ate back my word. Cube 8 is 90% sold.
Not a good place to stay for me as traffic in-out is terrible.

[gfoo]

No worries.. You may not know the real heartlander folks... Anyway I believe that the real social divide is really getting wider and wider. Out from the report...

Table 7 Average Monthly Household Income from Work Per Household Member
among Employed Households by Decile, those with household income > $8463 = 91st to 100th decile.. the real mass market upgraders.

As always, a gd luck to all...

something is wrong with the numbers.
this means that out of every 10 singaporeans you meet in the streets, 8 come from households that earn 5 grand or less a month - cannot be

[Condorich]

something is wrong with the numbers.
this means that out of every 10 singaporeans you meet in the streets, 8 come from households that earn 5 grand or less a month - cannot be

gfoo..... trust the numbers... its really true... you are the top 5% or maybe top 1% who lives in a posh district... with a posh car or cars... What you need to do is know people who live in suburbs or talk to their employers, these figures collaborate.

http://www.mom.gov.sg/publish/mompor...and_Wages.html

That's why alot of people think it is not a good time to invest, just buy if you can afford it for self stay... what are the odds? The figures speak for itself.

[Cactus72]

gfoo..... trust the numbers... its really true... you are the top 5% or maybe top 1% who lives in a posh district... with a posh car or cars... What you need to do is know people who live in suburbs or talk to their employers, these figures collaborate.

http://www.mom.gov.sg/publish/mompor...and_Wages.html

That's why alot of people think it is not a good time to invest, just buy if you can afford it for self stay... what are the odds? The figures speak for itself.

Well, there are people here discussing good or bad buy for a condo but there are people worry abt their 3 meals everyday. Two man just committed suicide, suspected due to financial distress. I repost a post from CNA forum as follow:

According to Shin Min Daily yesterday, two Singapore men committed suicide on the same day by jumping off their flats.

The first suicide victim is a taxi-driver by the name of Mr Lim who jumped from his 15 storey kitchen windows at Taman Jurong.

He had lived with his wife and children in the HDB unit where the suicide occurred.

Neighbors described him as slightly plump and friendly to his neighbors.

It was reported that he was under alot of stress due to financial difficulties.

The second victim is a 30 year old Mr Quan who leapt off from 14 storey at a HDB flat at Holland Drive to his death.

He was wearing a white shirt and blue short pants when this tragedy took place.

It is suspected that financial reasons may be a cause too.

Despite being Asia’s second richest country after Japan, Singapore has few social welfare benefits for its citizens though it is able to lose billions of dollars of its reserves in failed overseas investments.

The competition has worsened lately with the relentless influx of foreigners into Singapore who depressed the wages of ordinary Singaporeans, increased the cost of living, especially that of public housing and led to an overall decline in the standards of living.

Foreigners are allowed to compete directly with Singaporeans for jobs and there are no minimum wage or retrenchment benefits for local workers.

Singapore’s octogenarian leader Lee Kuan Yew said during an interview with the National Geographic magazine that it is a “good thing” tha the nation has welcomed so many Chinese immigrants as they are more “hard-driving” and “hard-striving” than locals.

For those Singaporeans who have fallen too far behind in the rat-race as they are not hard-driving enough, suicide may remain the last resort for them.

[xebay11]

something is wrong with the numbers.
this means that out of every 10 singaporeans you meet in the streets, 8 come from households that earn 5 grand or less a month - cannot be

Many ppl under declare incomes.

[gfoo]

gfoo..... trust the numbers... its really true... you are the top 5% or maybe top 1% who lives in a posh district... with a posh car or cars... What you need to do is know people who live in suburbs or talk to their employers, these figures collaborate.

http://www.mom.gov.sg/publish/mompor...and_Wages.html

That's why alot of people think it is not a good time to invest, just buy if you can afford it for self stay... what are the odds? The figures speak for itself.

I don't even see myself being top of anything - am as average as most. But as xebay says, it's most likely because most people under declare.

[Condorich]

ok, draw your own conclusions... hopefully it is correct...

Anyway check out the press releases by HDB... you will know why also...

The rich players playing at the rich area will not be affected.. they are in the premium league... but the S-leage... very hard to find sponsors...chance of getting into the world cup is almost zero unless a miracle happens...

Reinforcing the Privileges of Citizenship


3HDB facilitates home ownership by providing generous subsidies. Today, SPRs married to Singapore Citizens (SCs) enjoy the same subsidies as Singaporean couples. We would like to encourage the SPR family members in such SC/SPR households to take up citizenship.


4To do this and to reinforce the privilege of citizenship, HDB will withhold $10,000 of the housing subsidies enjoyed by SC/SPR households when they buy a flat. If they buy a resale flat, a Design, Build and Sell Scheme (DBSS) flat, or an Executive Condominium (EC), their Housing Grant will be reduced by $10,000. If they buy a new flat, they will have to pay a $10,000 premium on top of HDB’s selling price. The changes are summarised in Table 1.

Table 1: Housing Subsidies for SC/SPR Households
Household Type
Buying New Flat from HDB
CPF Housing Grant for
Resale/DBSS flats or EC unit
Citizen Top-Up
Basic
Grant
Higher-Tier*
Grant
SC / SC
No change
Receive $30,000
Receive $40,000
N.A
SC / SPR
Pay $10,000 Premium
Receive $20,000
Receive $30,000
Receive $10,000

* Not applicable to EC


The withheld subsidy of $10,000 will be restored when an SPR family member in the SC/SPR household takes up citizenship or if the couple has an SC child while still in ownership of that flat. Eligible households can apply to HDB within 6 months of the change in household citizenship status to claim the $10,000 Citizen Top-Up via CPF.

http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10296p....5?OpenDocument

[xtink]

$10k... what is the amt to the rich PRs. not eve enough to pay up the COV.

[fclim]

Wat happened here and now is akin to Dubai at its good times,
and see where is Dubai heading now, the fact is prop price is
running ahead of fundamentals.

Of course many people can afford a 1 mil porperty right now
in this Low interest rate / High Prop price environment, when
it reverse to High / Low respectively and we shall see how...

BIG difference. Three quarters of Dubai population are foreigners one quarter local residents. Singapore, three quarters local residents, one quarter foreigners. So when Dubai Palm tree collapses, monkeys run away.

[amk]

$10k... what is the amt to the rich PRs. not eve enough to pay up the COV.

I think PR quota hurts more. I *think* this is negative for the resale market, which indirectly affects mass market condos... but the quota will also force more PRs to go pte straight ...

I think the gov answers the call to address the high COV issue.

[Condorich]

yes, agree that 10k is nothing compared to cov... But u have to look at the big picture and not just on its own... Major policy change with immediate effect... And its not just a single policy.. You need to understand the causation effect in relation to the food chain concept... Its all linked. There might be a switch from hdbs to private by prs... But what is clear is that the holding period for hdb is longer now... So less transations to be expected... if its not as expected, u need to know, or guess sensibly why also

[Reporter]

I think PR quota hurts more. I *think* this is negative for the resale market, which indirectly affects mass market condos... but the quota will also force more PRs to go pte straight ...

I think the gov answers the call to address the high COV issue.

I don't see how the PR quota can hurt at all. What's wrong with PRs being spread all over Singapore instead of concentrating at one particular location?

[peterng8]

Well, there are people here discussing good or bad buy for a condo but there are people worry abt their 3 meals everyday. Two man just committed suicide, suspected due to financial distress. I repost a post from CNA forum as follow:

According to Shin Min Daily yesterday, two Singapore men committed suicide on the same day by jumping off their flats.

The first suicide victim is a taxi-driver by the name of Mr Lim who jumped from his 15 storey kitchen windows at Taman Jurong.

He had lived with his wife and children in the HDB unit where the suicide occurred.

Neighbors described him as slightly plump and friendly to his neighbors.

It was reported that he was under alot of stress due to financial difficulties.

The second victim is a 30 year old Mr Quan who leapt off from 14 storey at a HDB flat at Holland Drive to his death.

He was wearing a white shirt and blue short pants when this tragedy took place.

It is suspected that financial reasons may be a cause too.

Despite being Asia’s second richest country after Japan, Singapore has few social welfare benefits for its citizens though it is able to lose billions of dollars of its reserves in failed overseas investments.

The competition has worsened lately with the relentless influx of foreigners into Singapore who depressed the wages of ordinary Singaporeans, increased the cost of living, especially that of public housing and led to an overall decline in the standards of living.

Foreigners are allowed to compete directly with Singaporeans for jobs and there are no minimum wage or retrenchment benefits for local workers.

Singapore’s octogenarian leader Lee Kuan Yew said during an interview with the National Geographic magazine that it is a “good thing” tha the nation has welcomed so many Chinese immigrants as they are more “hard-driving” and “hard-striving” than locals.

For those Singaporeans who have fallen too far behind in the rat-race as they are not hard-driving enough, suicide may remain the last resort for them.

Sometimes, When alone and reading articles involving these matters related to livelihood of singaporeans, I really cannot help but feel sad for our future generations, they will be having a hard time if this continues just as what cactus72 mentioned...I have friends who get married but no children...one of the main reasons is this...why let their loved ones suffered in future ...

[Reporter]

$659 psf?
Still has $41 psf more to go before going-16-year-old Orchid Park Condo hit $700 psf.


Orchid Park Condo
Address .............................. psf ............ Area ........ Price ......... Contract Date
95 Yishun Street 81 #08-06 .... $659 psf .... 872 sqft .... $575,000 .... 19 Jan 10

$659 psf? $41 psf to $700 psf?
Oh please! That is history!

Many thanks to The Estuary, in less than a month, #08-06, which set the last high, has been flipped to set another new high!

The new high for going-16-year-old Orchid Park Condo is now $694 psf!
That is only $6 psf away from $700 psf!

Orchid Park Condo is closing in fast on The Estuary. Can the latter extend its lead over the former? Let's watch this space.


Orchid Park Condo
Address .............................. psf ............ Area ........ Price ......... Contract Date
95 Yishun Street 81 #08-06 .... $694 psf .... 872 sqft .... $605,000 .... 17 Feb 10

[proud owner]

most singapore families easily have a combined income of $10k a month anyways - repaying a $800k loan can be wholly via cpf so essentially they don't feel the pinch

agree

Me being me ..always like to question the unthinkable ..

10k combined income .. say a widowed + son (or daughter) ..

what if the son ( daughter) also want to buy something of their own ?

so father/mother + child = > 10k

father/mother buy 1 unit ..
child also buy 1 unit ...

so 10k combined ...will it be double counting ???

look around us .. there are many families of 4 to 5 .. staying together in a 3/4/5 rm HDB .. assumed fully paid ..

father+mother buy a condo nearby HDB , like Quartz, Estuary, etc

son also buy one ..at say east coast, or HV, etc

daughter, maybe also buy ..

afterall its a BULL market .. close eyes buy also can make money ..

so their combined income of 20k .. used to calculation of ONE purchase, is more than sufficient...

BUT are there cases where that same 20 k is used for calculation for ALL the above purchases ?

DONT call me idiots or fool or joker ... BUT i have seen the above scenario actually happening ..

[Regulators]

your friends think too lowly of what their children can achieve. Who knows, their children could be world shakers and history makers...

Sometimes, When alone and reading articles involving these matters related to livelihood of singaporeans, I really cannot help but feel sad for our future generations, they will be having a hard time if this continues just as what cactus72 mentioned...I have friends who get married but no children...one of the main reasons is this...why let their loved ones suffered in future ...

[teddybear]

According to Dept of Statistics in 2009, ave household income for the 80%-90% top earners is $12,290 pm (and these only consider the 'workers' salaries, i.e. employed types, not including those income from business and investments etc) . This is actually not difficult to achieve considering that most household now have both husbands and wives working. (not comparable to previous statistics where most households have 1 working).

agree

Me being me ..always like to question the unthinkable ..

10k combined income .. say a widowed + son (or daughter) ..

what if the son ( daughter) also want to buy something of their own ?

so father/mother + child = > 10k

father/mother buy 1 unit ..
child also buy 1 unit ...

so 10k combined ...will it be double counting ???

look around us .. there are many families of 4 to 5 .. staying together in a 3/4/5 rm HDB .. assumed fully paid ..

father+mother buy a condo nearby HDB , like Quartz, Estuary, etc

son also buy one ..at say east coast, or HV, etc

daughter, maybe also buy ..

afterall its a BULL market .. close eyes buy also can make money ..

so their combined income of 20k .. used to calculation of ONE purchase, is more than sufficient...

BUT are there cases where that same 20 k is used for calculation for ALL the above purchases ?

DONT call me idiots or fool or joker ... BUT i have seen the above scenario actually happening ..

[gfoo]

According to Dept of Statistics in 2009, ave household income for the 80%-90% top earners is $12,290 pm (and these only consider the 'workers' salaries, i.e. employed types, not including those income from business and investments etc) . This is actually not difficult to achieve considering that most household now have both husbands and wives working. (not comparable to previous statistics where most households have 1 working).

if you're saying that 80-90% of singapore households make avg 12k then that makes better sense

[azeoprop]

I think the only other new condo with nice unblocked views at a lower price now is Oasis@elias in pasir ris with some high floor units having pulau ubin views.

[focus]

I think the only other new condo with nice unblocked views at a lower price now is Oasis@elias in pasir ris with some high floor units having pulau ubin views.

Power Plant in Lor Halus..

[jonleelk]

if you're saying that 80-90% of singapore households make avg 12k then that makes better sense

Don't think he meant that, bro.

Top 10% average is more than 11.8k. The next 20% average 11.8k. 80% is less than 11.8k.

There are many blue collar workers earning 2-3k per month. Even if their wife also earn the same, it is max 6k per household per month. There are many many of such around.

[jitkiat]

[teddybear]

Based on below statistics, we can infer that about 85% of working-class people earns >$S12,290 pm. If we include those income from businesses, investments (shares, properties, rentals etc) and those who under-declared, then probably about 75% of the population earns >$12,290 pm?

If we assume that a household uses 35% to pay mortgages, that is about $4301 pm. $4301 pm would enable a household to buy a $1.5m property (taking out a $1.2m housing loan for 30 years at 2% p.a.). So, don't under-estimate the buying power of the people!

Considering that private properties only make up of 20% of all properties in Singapore, soon no private properties of at least 1000 sqft will be <$1m!

"According to Dept of Statistics in 2009, ave household income for the 80%-90% top earners is $12,290 pm (and these only consider the 'workers' salaries, i.e. employed types, not including those income from business and investments etc) . This is actually not difficult to achieve considering that most household now have both husbands and wives working. (not comparable to previous statistics where most households have 1 working)."

if you're saying that 80-90% of singapore households make avg 12k then that makes better sense

[jonleelk]

Correcting some typo in my previous post::

Top 10% average is more than 12k. The next 10% average 12k. The remaining 80% is less than 12k.

[gosperence]

Went to the showroom again and the crowd was not so packed compared to previous preview session. Collected their newly printed brochure and looking at the sales results, they're approaching 85% yesterday, with lower floors units of 3-bedders still avialable for few stacks. Most of the newly releases units facing the reservoir were all snapped up yesterday, but they had few 2-bedders which are facing the pool still available. Average psf hit $795, lower than I expected.
All 1 bedder/MM unit sold out.

I think within next week the project will be sell-out. Developer already level the ground ready for foundation piling next week.