Newbie
Good! Like to see this result! It is building up sentiments but hopefully not over-heated and government introduces more measures again.Originally Posted by gosperence
Yes, the agent i bought told me likely all units will be released this weekend and they expect 95% sold out, leaving some odd units.
Success of one project will help to build the momentum to gradual price increase (hopefully not excessive)!
Newbie
Great. For 2 bedrooms, what kind of PSF are we looking at? I mean from developer. High floor with unblocked view.
Newbie
This is purely fear of loss...Understand from an agent that over 500 units sold to date liao.
Wonder how are these buyers going to sell their units in future...
If the mass market condo so far from town can cost 1 million then I think an average Singaporean household income at least $15,000 per month...
Very Rich Singaporean...
Newbie
If one decide that 1 million is fine, then he/she has to take responsibility. When I bought my mid floor twin regency around 800k, I know I have to pay every month but now, of course I don't regret because the psf was around 900
If I am paying around $3k including maintenance fee and taxes, I wonder what will happen to those ordinary folks who buy at 1 million. Not forgetting, the 3k I am paying is on a super low interest rate. I am sure some are over stretching themselves.
F01 N54 Sheer Driving Pleasure
Maybe buyers believe The Estuary is cheap compared to Compassvale Bow EC?
You guys aren't expecting The Estuary, a normal condo, to sell at the price of an EC, are you?
Senior
agreeIf one decide that 1 million is fine, then he/she has to take responsibility. When I bought my mid floor twin regency around 800k, I know I have to pay every month but now, of course I don't regret because the psf was around 900
If I am paying around $3k including maintenance fee and taxes, I wonder what will happen to those ordinary folks who buy at 1 million. Not forgetting, the 3k I am paying is on a super low interest rate. I am sure some are over stretching themselves.
some will try to rent out .,, if they are lucky they can rent, say, at 2.5k ..and top up just 500 a mth which becomes affordable
but looking at many new condos .. easily 1/4 are left empty .. wire still dangling from the ceiling
in a 600 unit project .. thats 150 units empty ..
out of 150 units , say half are speculators .. rich enuff to leave them empty for 5yrs ..
so 75 owners will be trying to rent/sell ..they could be stretching ...
how many projects have TOP since jan 2009 to date ? 10? 20?
how about old projects ?
since jan 2009 .. however "expats' have entered singapore ? how many more will come ? not forgetting, how many more projects will TOP ...
even prime, like Suites@central ..still alot of units unoccupied ...mind you it is a sold out project .. but those are rich owners ..
i know those a 2.4 mio unit was rented at 5k ... tell me is 5k enuff ? assuming 80 pct financing ..
guess my point is .. market is long properties ..
a decent pct of owners are stretching their $$ power ..especially in mass market ..
Newbie
I will be excluding those in prime/super prime areas like orchard or marina bay because those who buy there are probably rich like shit. Many can afford to leave it empty for years. Just look at sail. How many units are having wires hanging down for so many years. So those buyers are definitely different from Estuary buyers.
Newbie
Just too many. I remember reading somewhere that from now till 2013, there are at least 11,000 private homes TOP every year. Assuming each development is about 500 units, that is 22 developments. Amazing for a small dot...
Newbie
Not this year. This year housing crunch. 5000 units only. Next year 10k units but in 2012 and 2013 (Estuary TOP as well), there will be severe over supply. Maybe 16 to 20k units TOP.
Senior
yes i should not include those in the prime districts .. but i guess ..there are also borderline cases in those projects .. some hot blooded young yuppie invesculator ..stretching a little there ..
anyhow .. there are still alot of units out there looking for tenants..in prime and fringe districts ..
that will give more choices to expats who works in the far north/west/east ...given a certain housing allowance .. these (managerial positions) expats could well choose to travel a bit .. and rent in the city as oppose to far north/east/west ...
there
Senior
yes i should not include those in the prime districts .. but i guess ..there are also borderline cases in those projects .. some hot blooded young yuppie invesculator ..stretching a little there ..
anyhow .. there are still alot of units out there looking for tenants..in prime and fringe districts ..
that will give more choices to expats who works in the far north/west/east ...given a certain housing allowance .. these (managerial positions) expats could well choose to travel a bit .. and rent in the city as oppose to far north/east/west ...
there will
Senior
yes i should not include those in the prime districts .. but i guess ..there are also borderline cases in those projects .. some hot blooded young yuppie invesculator ..stretching a little there ..
anyhow .. there are still alot of units out there looking for tenants..in prime and fringe districts ..
that will give more choices to expats who works in the far north/west/east ...given a certain housing allowance .. these (managerial positions) expats could well choose to travel a bit .. and rent in the city as oppose to far north/east/west ...
there will be pockets of expats who works odd hours , like those in sembawang shipyards ..and they are more likely to rent near work place .. still ..they would prefer bigger units ..
thats my experience and my take on rental, unit size and expats mentality ...
Newbie
In case I appear to be too negative about this Project, which I am not. Maybe some differences in views on the pros and cons. I am actually quite neutral about it. Here's some good news..
Using the concept of relativity in pricing.... this Project could even be seen as value for money. It should sell better now, from what I expect it to sell just days ago.
The key thing to watch out for is the EC Site at Yishun, by Mar 11. If it sets another record... good news for MCL land. I will not be surprised if MCL put in a good bid or even TOP Bid.
Draw your own conclusions please.
I wish all Good Luck
Business Times - 05 Mar 2010
Buangkok site attracts highest-ever EC bid
The tender draws 11 bids, the highest being about $315 per sq ft per plot ratio
By KALPANA RASHIWALA
(SINGAPORE) A 99-year-leasehold executive condominium (EC) housing site near Buangkok MRT Station has fetched the highest ever bid for an EC site.
The top bid from a partnership between Frasers Centrepoint and Lum Chang Building Contractors of $193.28 million or about $315 per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr) surpassed the previous record of $220 psf ppr for the Summerdale EC site in Boon Lay in May 1997, noted property consultant CB Richard Ellis (CBRE).
Yesterday's tender drew a total of 11 bids, reflecting developers' continuing hunger for land. The top bid came in slightly above market expectations in January, when the Housing & Development Board (HDB) launched the site. ECs are a hybrid of private and public housing.
With Lum Chang expected to provide construction services for the project, the tie-up should be able to minimise construction costs, industry observers noted yesterday. By some market estimates, their breakeven cost for a new EC project could be below $600 psf. The duo are expected to build a higher proportion of small units to try and achieve higher per square foot selling prices.
Even so, there will be a limit as to how small the apartments can be, given the high standard of public housing set in the area, for HDB Aspella, comprising premium HDB flats next to Buangkok MRT Station, market watchers say.
A possible option, and one which Frasers Centrepoint has done before, is to have some apartments with its 'dual-key concept', where a regular-sized apartment and a granny apartment (with its own kitchenette and bathroom) are packaged as a single unit.
CBRE executive director Li Hiaw Ho reckons Frasers Centrepoint and Lum Chang could sell their units in the $650-$680 psf range on average. Based on that, a 1,200-sq-ft unit in the new development would be priced at about $800,000.
A Frasers Centrepoint spokesman said yesterday: 'This site is well-located, and in view of the tight supply and great demand, we are confident that it will be an attractive development especially to home buyers who have been recently priced out of the market. We are planning to build about 500-plus units on the site.'
In the secondary market, three EC projects in the north-east region - The Rivervale, Florida and Park Green - have sold at $520-$600 psf between October 2009 and February 2010, said CBRE.
Yesterday's top bid was just 1.4 per cent above the second highest offer of $310 psf ppr by MCC Land, part of the China Metallurgical Construction Group. Other bidders at yesterday's tender included a JV led by Hoi Hup Realty; United Engineers unit Greatearth Holdings and a tie-up between Choice Homes Investments and a subsidiary of Chip Eng Seng Corporation. Interestingly, property giants Far East Organization and City Developments emerged near the bottom of the bids' table. The lowest bid came from Boon Keng Development at $198.52 psf ppr.
ECs are strata-titled apartments with facilities comparable to private condos. New ECs are sold with initial eligibility, ownership and resale restrictions similar to public housing; but these are completely removed after 10 years.
Among the buyer eligibility criteria is a maximum $10,000 monthly household income. Qualifying first-time buyers who purchase new ECs may also apply for a $30,000 CPF housing grant.
The winning tenderer will have to set aside 95 per cent of units in the initial month of sale for first-time home buyers - those who have yet to receive a housing subsidy from government. Second timers buying new ECs do not need to pay any resale levy.
The tender for another EC site, in Yishun, will close on March 11. HDB also announced yesterday it will launch another plot, also in Yishun, later this month or next month for development into HDB flats under the Design, Build & Sell Scheme. That site can potentially yield about 700 flats.
Copyright © 2010 Singapore Press Holdings Ltd. All rights reserved.
Newbie
This craziness is going to end somewhere, believe me...
Senior
Balloting this afternoon. Price ranges from $760-$810psf ($980k - 1.06mil)
Newbie
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Sms at 90686016 for bookings
Junior
I can bet majority are buying to stay. It's not the upside they are looking at. It's simply the affordability they are looking at. Big difference between buying for own stay and buying for investments.
bro get used to it. Even ECs are crossing 800k, why a full scale condo cannot be 1M ? Mind u it's just 1.0xM, not 1.99M.If the mass market condo so far from town can cost 1 million
No u just need 10k to afford a 1M pty. (800k loan at 3% 30y is only 3.3k a month.) And that is even before counting the profit they can make from selling the HDB. In fact many borderline cases with 8k salaries are also brave enough to buy, because BUC projects allow them to accumulate savings along the years. Trust me, plenty of people can afford a 1M pty for own stay. (I'm sure u includedthen I think an average Singaporean household income at least $15,000 per month...)
This Yishun project, before launching, I remember only me and nav14 were very positive on it. I believe just the ppl staying around Yishun area alone will be able to absorb the project. Dun forget this is the only new condo launch in the last 10ys there ! Fortunately MCL is not FEO, the pricing is not there to kill. (of course the little gimmick on the balcony helps)
Newbie
I wouldn't bet on 3.3k a month with 8k salary because every month, it should be around 4k including taxes, maintenance fees etc.. That is a disgusting 50% gone. I rather stay HDB or buy some old, nice condo. Bayshore, villa marina, some old ones around river valley or tg rhu are some examples that you don't need to pay the roof for better location.
I can bet majority are buying to stay. It's not the upside they are looking at. It's simply the affordability they are looking at. Big difference between buying for own stay and buying for investments.
bro get used to it. Even ECs are crossing 800k, why a full scale condo cannot be 1M ? Mind u it's just 1.0xM, not 1.99M.
No u just need 10k to afford a 1M pty. (800k loan at 3% 30y is only 3.3k a month.) And that is even before counting the profit they can make from selling the HDB. In fact many borderline cases with 8k salaries are also brave enough to buy, because BUC projects allow them to accumulate savings along the years. Trust me, plenty of people can afford a 1M pty for own stay. (I'm sure u included
This Yishun project, before launching, I remember only me and nav14 were very positive on it. I believe just the ppl staying around Yishun area alone will be able to absorb the project. Dun forget this is the only new condo launch in the last 10ys there ! Fortunately MCL is not FEO, the pricing is not there to kill. (of course the little gimmick on the balcony helps
Newbie
My definition of self stay is
a) Completed Property - Cannot sell.. so no choice but to stay...until surrender IC.
b) Uncompleted Property - Cannot afford another better place to buy...
c) Both - To blame ourself if anything goes wrong.
d) Sentimental reasons... priceless
e) Egoistic reasons... flaunt it.
Free total interest calculator, assuming $800k loan and fixed 2.5% interest on a 30 year term.
http://www.cpf.gov.sg/cpfhsg/Hsg_totInt_calc.asp
Total Interest ($) : $337,948
Total Payment ($) (Loan Amount + Total Interest) : $ 1,137,948
% of Total Payment Spent on Interest: 30%
Total outlay = at least $1,337,948.00 + Stamp $24,600 = $1,362,548
First 2 years, total interest more than total principal... must earn more than $3k x 2 per month for the next 30 years ($3k for house, $3k for living expenses). Quite Risky... I would think single or combine income of $15k to $20k per month would be less risky ($3k for house, $3k for living expenses, $3k for savings, $3k for children's university fund, $3k for other investments/contingency use/partial capital redemption/car).
Total Interest for the year 1 = 19,793.10
Total Principal paid for the year = $18,138.54
Good Luck!
Newbie
Most would not be paying 1 million+. Those who does would have been mindful of their financial commitment. Buying around 800+psf is no longer very reckless. If not enough $$, buy smaller unit. Not many ( or non) new condo. go below 800 psf.If one decide that 1 million is fine, then he/she has to take responsibility. When I bought my mid floor twin regency around 800k, I know I have to pay every month but now, of course I don't regret because the psf was around 900
If I am paying around $3k including maintenance fee and taxes, I wonder what will happen to those ordinary folks who buy at 1 million. Not forgetting, the 3k I am paying is on a super low interest rate. I am sure some are over stretching themselves.
Junior
I didn't say it was prudent. I said some "brave" souls are doing it, considering BUC status and betting their income will increase in 3yrs time, from 8 to 10 possibly. Remember there is abt 1.8k that goes into CPF, you cannot do anything abt it anyway. Also for the 3ys before TOP, only abt 40% is loaned really.
Why not 50k ? will that be even less risky ?
Come on if there is no appetite for risk, then this pty business is totally out of the picture. Dun even talk abt buying anything. If ur income is 20k, u r not looking at this project for sure.
Newbie
You might be correct. I remembered it was about 11,000 homes on average till 2013
Newbie
Ok, I concede... never end, above it is the best maybe $100k per month... but how many Singaporeans, especially staying in the North.... 1% of the population?Why not 50k ? will that be even less risky ?
Come on if there is no appetite for risk, then this pty business is totally out of the picture. Dun even talk abt buying anything. If ur income is 20k, u r not looking at this project for sure.
That's the point, income above 20k PER MONTH, better location and better choices all over the island... and for those who bought.... who are you going to sell it to?
Junior
most singapore families easily have a combined income of $10k a month anyways - repaying a $800k loan can be wholly via cpf so essentially they don't feel the pinch
Newbie
Be careful about those statements... let us ask the GINI.....
here you go
http://www.singstat.gov.sg/pubn/pape...ple/op-s16.pdf
Published February 20, 2010
Weaker job market dents household income
Income in 2009 was lower than in 2008 but still higher than in earlier years
By SIOW LI SEN
(Singapore)
HOUSEHOLD income fell last year, reflecting the weaker labour market conditions which saw higher unemployment and lower wages.
Median monthly household income from work among all resident households declined a nominal 1.9 per cent to $4,850 in 2009 from $4,950 in 2008. After adjusting for inflation in 2009, median household income fell a steeper 2.5 per cent.
There were 1.12 million resident households here of which 1.01 million were employed households defined as those with at least one working person.
According to the Department of Statistics (DOS), while household income was lower when compared with 2008 - which saw significant growth in income - median household income in 2009 was still higher than in earlier years.
Residents living in one and 2-room HDB flats saw their median monthly household income from work plunge 13.9 per cent in real terms to $650 in 2009 from $750 in 2008. This group made up 4.4 per cent or 49,280 households out of the total 1.12 million households.
The number of households living in one and 2-room flats but with no one working grew to 37 per cent last year from 33.2 per cent in 2008. The percentage of retiree households defined as those not working and aged 60 and above in the one and 2-room flats also rose to 23.5 per cent from 21.5 per cent in 2008.
Those holding up best and also the largest group lived in 4-room or larger flats; their median household income fell slightly, 1.8 per cent to $5,272. There were 656,320 households in this category, representing 58.6 per cent of total resident households.
For those in 3-room flats, who made up 20.2 per cent or 226,240 of total resident households, saw their median income drop 2.5 per cent to $2,660.
Private property households which make up 15.9 per cent or 178,080 of total resident households, experienced a 2.3 per cent slide in median income to $11,331.
Among employed households, the fall in income was less steep. The median employed household income in real terms declined 2 per cent to $5,398. Employed households in one and 2-room flats saw their income contract 8.9 per cent to $1,091. Those living in 4-room flats or larger suffered a slight dip in income of 1.4 per cent to $5,556. Income in 3-room flats was down 1.7 per cent at $3,193.
Household income in private property held up best, with a marginal 1.1 per cent slide to $12,502.
When measuring employed household income by income groups, those in the top two groups or deciles experienced the biggest decline in nominal terms of 4.2 to 4.8 per cent. The average monthly household income from work for the top decile fell 4.2 per cent to $22,062. The fall in income for the lowest decile was 0.7 per cent to $1,303.
The number of people in the richest households was also the smallest, with an average of 2.8, while the lowest income households had an average of 3.93 members.
The DOS said that there was a narrowing of income distribution with employed households at the upper deciles experiencing a larger decline in income per household member.
The Gini coefficient, a summary measure of income inequality, declined from 0.481 in 2008 to 0.478 in 2009. This is the second consecutive year that the Gini coefficient has declined.
Last year's Resilience Package and other government schemes gave a larger boost to the lower income groups. On average, the Resilience Package and other government schemes added an estimated $2,460 per household member to resident households in one and 2-room flats and $1,600 in 3-room flats. This was more than the $930 per household member for households in private flats and landed properties.
After adjusting for government benefits and taxes, the Gini coefficient among employed households was reduced to 0.453 in 2009, as compared to 0.478 before adjustment.
Singapore
Home > Breaking News > Singapore > Story
Feb 19, 2010
Household income falls 1.9%
After adjusting for inflation, the median household income shrank by 2.5 per cent, said a report on the key household income trends for 2009 released by the Singapore Department of Statistics on Friday. -- ST PHOTO: NG SOR LUAN
THE median monthly household income from work among Singapore households fell by 1.9 per cent last year - from $4,950 in 2008 to $4,850, due to the weak labour market and higher unemployment.
After adjusting for inflation, the median household income shrank by 2.5 per cent, said a report on the key household income trends for 2009 released by the Singapore Department of Statistics on Friday.
'While lower when comparing with 2008, which saw a significant growth in income, median household income from work in 2009 was still higher than in earlier years,' the report noted. 'The decline in household income from work reflected the weaker labour market conditions in 2009, which saw higher unemployment and lower wages,' it added.
Among the employed households (homes with at least one working person), the median income was $1,090 for those living in one and two-room Housing Board flats, $3,190 for three-room flats, $5,560 for four-room or larger flats, and $12,500 for private flats, condominiums and private houses, which was lower than in 2008.
The average household income for each member also fell across all income groups, with households at the upper deciles taking the largest cut in nominal terms. The drop in income ranged from 0.6 to 1.8 per cent for the lowest three deciles to between 2.5 and 3.4 per cent for the top three deciles.
Newbie
Well, all of us have dreams and is normal for everyone to aim high. Estuary can be a good bet bearing in mind that there are 2 potential land sales coming up in Yishun. If these sales manage a higher psf, Estuary owners will have made up!!!!!!!!!!!!
Be Heard, not the Herd
Problem is, prices are likely to stay at current rate for some time. Consider the following data on the amount that developers paid for residential land last year:This craziness is going to end somewhere, believe me...
1. 9 Sep 09 - UOL for Dakota Crescent, 99 yrs, 508psf.
2. 9 Oct 09 - Intrepid Investments for Serangoon Ave 3, 99 yrs, 529psf.
3. 9 Nov 09 - Treasure Well for Upp. Thomson, 99 yrs, 533psf.
4. 24 Feb 10 - Dollar Land for Choa Chu Kang, 99 yrs, 436psf.
The average price is at least $500psf. Construction and other costs easily $250 to $300 psf. That means the units will have to be launched at the minimum price of $800psf in order to make a profit.
Having got the land last year, the developers are likely to launch their units in the second half of this year to take advantage of the buying momentum.
Junior
I agree with you 100%. This party should run into end 2010 / early 2011.
and please repeat after Mr Kwek: "sell on the way up".
Condorich: ur article has this part that says "median income ... is $12,500 for private flats".
Junior
Sorry i meant pte property buyers, but thanks for the info - huge eye opener.
Crunching the BT numbers...
Out of 1.12 Households in Singapore:
1/2rm HDB - 4.4%: $650
3rm HDB - 20.2%: $2,660
4/5rm HDB - 58.6%: $5,272
Pte Ppty - 15.9%: $11,331
This means:
- 1/4 of Singapore households make less than $2.8K
- 3/4 of Singapore households make less than $5.3K
Sounds a bit extreme leh
190,400 Singapore households
Newbie
Wat happened here and now is akin to Dubai at its good times,
and see where is Dubai heading now, the fact is prop price is
running ahead of fundamentals.
Of course many people can afford a 1 mil porperty right now
in this Low interest rate / High Prop price environment, when
it reverse to High / Low respectively and we shall see how...
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