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Thread: Property market sentiments 2010

  1. #1051
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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    fully agree with you that this "bull" market is just that, bull (as in bulls**t). I give you several reasons:

    (1) people only buy in new launches, but not on the resale market. They are not buying physical brick and mortar to live in, but rather buying options to flip. the demand is not genuine. It simply reflects Singaporeans' urges to gamble. it is the excitement of holding an option, which is deemed as a lottery ticket, that induces people to buy. You offer them something cheaper that has already been built but at a lower price, they give you a yawn.

    (2) It is all PRC's money! I heard many stories of some PRC gents or ladies snapping up 4 or 5 properties on one trip to Singapore. they don't intend to live in any of them. It is only their way of parking their ill gotten wealth.

    (3) it is all indonesia' money. most buyers at rivergate are indonesians. Where did they get their money? cutting down trees and destroying the environment back home. they like to park their money here, for various reasons.

    (4) many (real) condos are for sale, but there are few buyers. the parc condo has more than 1000 units for sale. there are 300 units at rivergate for sale, 3 years after top.

    (5) agree the transacted prices mean nothing, given how thin the market is. it would take 5 to 8 years for the backlog of rivergate to clear given that only one or two are selling each month.

    (6) manipulation or lying. developers are all using tricks, smoke and mirror to get people to buy. look at the Parc condo, they call multistory carparks "plazas." the developer of the vision shows marble floors in the showflat, but what will the buyers actually get? who knows?

    (7) Liquidity. sibor has hit a all time low last week. money is dirt cheap. but even in the environment, few are buying. what will happen when sibor hit an all time high?

    (8) ...I am tired.
    As I mentioned before, this is a strange market. It makes you feel uneasy. Think the best bet is still a freehold landed property in a well located prime district. At least I am assured that the supply is definitely LIMITED and I am sitting on a piece of freehold PRIME LAND!

  2. #1052
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    Guys, don't worry about the market. It will not crash if the economy stays positive, crash is too strong a word. Consolidation is possible in the distant future but it's too far to think for now and in no time it will be the next property boom.

    What sibor? You think the gov is stupid? The gov is smarter than most of us here and I'm not propagating for them. The key is, interested rates and property market (land supplies) are both controlled by them and they will balance up both factors to prevent a crash from happening. The gov got you covered.

    The real money makers take advantage of corrections but even if you don't, can't or don't know how, holding on to your property in SG is a sure win way to make money (just a matter of more or less). That's why property is considered as an asset in SG but in other countries like US where hurricane can blow the heck of your wooden hut, it's not so.

    Why do you think the foreigners are interested in snapping up properties in SG? Rich people are smart and smart people don't do things for nothing. If you think buying property in SG is just like buying stocks, then you are better off investing in stocks.

    In some way, I agree with jilrx that property will always go up in tandem with the economy after factoring in the inflation rate. However, I don't believe in not selling since it's the only way to take advantage of consolidations.

    With that all said, watch for the next property boom instead of praying that the market would not crash. It's just a matter of time that SG property market will break through the ceilings and soar above the skies.

    NOTE: I'M NOT TALKING ABOUT CHINA OR US OR EUROPE, THESE PLACES DON'T APPLY

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    Sky@Eleven in District 11 has a nëw hïgh of $1,409 psf!


    Sky@Eleven
    Address ........................ psf ............... Area ........... Price ............ Contract Date
    9 Thomson Lane #36-07 .... $1,409 psf .... 2,271 sqft .... $3,200,000 .... 29 Mar 10

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    More than 30 units of Marina Bay Suites sold
    Prices for latest preview are 15-20% higher
    Kalpana Rashiwala
    The Business Times
    Friday, 30 April 2010


    Artist's impression: Marina Bay Suites has a total 221 units, comprising 218 3- or 4-bedroom apartments and 3 penthouses

    More than 30 units were sold at a preview for Marina Bay Suites yesterday. They were among a batch of 36 apartments released on 9 floors in the 66-storey condominium project and which are priced between $2,167 psf and $3,133 psf.

    Analysts observe this pricing is about 15 to 20% higher than the $1,900-2,600 psf for the initial batch of about 90 units sold in the condo late last year.

    Some potential buyers may have found the quantum of price hike, taking place within a space of less than 6 months, 'a bit too heavy', as a market watcher put it.

    The most expensive unit sold yesterday is said to cost about $8.4 million; it is a 4-bedder-with-study on the 51st level. The 'cheapest' of the 36 apartments is a 3-bedroom apartment on the 70th storey priced at $3.5 milllion.

    The 90-odd units sold last year were mostly below the 46th storey sky terrace.

    Those who picked up a unit yesterday are said to comprise a good mix of foreigners and Singaporeans. BT understands the 36 apartments offered range from 1,615 sqft for a 3-bedder to 2,690 sqft for a 4-bedder with study.

    Marina Bay Suites has a total 221 units, comprising 218 3- or 4-bedroom apartments and 3 penthouses. A typical floor has only 4 apartments with private lift lobbies in every unit. Each penthouse comes with its own swimming pool.

    While the earlier preview was held on the mezzanine level of One Raffles Quay, yesterday's sales were at a showflat built on the fourth floor of the Marina Bay Financial Centre Office Tower 1.

    The latest preview was open to those who had registered interest. From today, sales will be by appointment. The project is being marketed by CB Richard Ellis and DTZ.

    This week's preview is timed to ride on the partial opening of the nearby Marina Bay Sands integrated resort on Tuesday.

    Marina Bay Suites is being developed by a consortium controlled by Keppel Land, Cheung Kong Holdings and Hongkong Land Holdings.

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i sense sarcasm ...

    by the way

    i did not indicate that the postings were UNREAL

    i only said i do not see REAL stories of those who invested in properties and YET not make real money
    Ok, while searching for your answers, perhaps you would like to focus on some properties that were sold during the peak at 2007. I was curious too and found this development : Park Natura at bukit batok area.

    Some transacted prices (2nd line refers to seller's purchase px)

    Flr Area Contract Date Transacted Px PSF
    2,067..... Nov 2009........ $1.7M........ $822
    2,067..... Dec 2007........ $1.858M..... $899
    Address: 35 Bukit Batok East Avenue 6 #06-31
    Seller made a loss of $158K

    1,841...... Nov 2009....... $1.703M..... $925
    1,841...... Nov 2007....... $1.873M..... $1,018
    Address: 35 Bukit Batok East Avenue 6 #03-30
    Seller made a loss of $170k

    1,744..... Nov 2009........ $1.62M....... $929
    1,744..... Nov 2007........ $1.86M....... $1,067
    Address: 35 Bukit Batok East Avenue 6 #03-13
    Seller made a loss of $240k

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    Quote Originally Posted by Avatar
    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i sense sarcasm ...

    by the way

    i did not indicate that the postings were UNREAL

    i only said i do not see REAL stories of those who invested in properties and YET not make real money
    Ok, while searching for your answers, perhaps you would like to focus on some properties that were sold during the peak at 2007. I was curious too and found this development : Park Natura at bukit batok area.

    Some transacted prices (2nd line refers to seller's purchase px)

    Flr Area Contract Date Transacted Px PSF
    2,067..... Nov 2009........ $1.7M........ $822
    2,067..... Dec 2007........ $1.858M..... $899
    Address: 35 Bukit Batok East Avenue 6 #06-31
    Seller made a loss of $158K

    1,841...... Nov 2009....... $1.703M..... $925
    1,841...... Nov 2007....... $1.873M..... $1,018
    Address: 35 Bukit Batok East Avenue 6 #03-30
    Seller made a loss of $170k

    1,744..... Nov 2009........ $1.62M....... $929
    1,744..... Nov 2007........ $1.86M....... $1,067
    Address: 35 Bukit Batok East Avenue 6 #03-13
    Seller made a loss of $240k
    Maybe we should invite these three people to the forum to post their stories.

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    Manufacturers expect buoyant business outlook for next 6 months
    Ephraim Seow
    Channel NewsAsia
    Friday, 30 April 2010, 1747 hrs


    Workers at a factory in Singapore.

    The manufacturing sector expects a buoyant business outlook for the April to September period this year, according to a survey of business expectations for the manufacturing sector by the Economic Development Board (EDB).

    Overall, a net weighted balance of 29% of manufacturers anticipate a more favourable business situation in the next six months, compared to the first quarter of 2010.

    The electronics cluster net weighted balance of 44% is the most optimistic, due to higher demand for electronics and info-communications products worldwide.

    The precision engineering cluster, net weighted balance of 32%, was the next most optimistic due to expected higher orders for machinery and precision modules and components as global industrial activities increase.

    A net weighted 30% of manufacturers surveyed expect output to increase as a result of improving order books.

    All clusters project higher level of output in the second quarter of 2010 compared to a quarter ago.

    The electronics cluster is the most bullish at net weighted balance of 40%, followed by the biomedical manufacturing cluster net weighted balance of 31%.

    Manufacturers are also expected to increase headcount to meet the higher volume of orders anticipated.

    Overall, a weighted 95% of the manufacturers expect employment to increase or remain, similar to the first quarter this year.

    The precision engineering, transport engineering and electronics clusters have the most positive employment outlook.

    As for export orders, a weighted 50% of the firms surveyed reported no limiting factors that will affect their ability to obtain these orders.

    But those that indicated export constraints said price competition from overseas competitors and political and economic conditions are the leading factors.

    Meanwhile, a weighted 71% of the manufacturers plan to invest in plant and machinery in the next 12 months.

    These are mainly for the expansion of production capacity of existing products, the replacement of worn-out equipment, and the manufacture of new products.

    The survey was conducted between March and April 2010.

    Out of a total of 401 manufacturing establishments surveyed, 95% responded.

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    Unemployment down with job market adding 34,000 more workers
    Channel NewsAsia
    Friday, 30 April 2010, 1042 hrs


    Office workers seen at the financial district in Singapore

    Employment continued to grow strongly in the first quarter of 2010, amid the robust economic recovery.

    Total employment is estimated to have grown by 34,000 in the first quarter, following the third quarter increase on the back of 2 quarters of decline in the first half of 2009.

    With the strong job gains, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate dipped to 2.2% in March 2010 from a revised 2.3% in December 2009.

    Similarly, among the resident labour force, the unemployment rate dipped to 3.2% from a revised 3.3% in December 2009.

    The bulk of the latest employment gains came from the service sector, with 31,200 more workers added in the first quarter of 2010, compared to 31,500 in the previous quarter.

    Manufacturing saw a second consecutive increase adding 3,400 workers after shedding workers over four consecutive quarters, while construction registered a small decline of 800 workers after 20 successive quarters of employment gains since 2005.

    Preliminary estimates from the Manpower Ministry also showed that 1,600 workers were retrenched and 500 contracts were terminated prematurely, resulting in a total of 2,100 workers made redundant in the first quarter of 2010.

    This was comparable to the 2,220 workers made redundant in the previous quarter and way lower than the record 12,760 workers affected in the first quarter of 2009.

    While redundancies in manufacturing and construction edged up, the number of workers laid off in services was down.

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    Manpower Minister says labour market shows clear signs of recovery
    Channel NewsAsia
    Friday, 30 April 2010, 1836 hrs


    Minister for Manpower, Gan Kim Yong

    Commenting on the first quarter employment report, Manpower Minister Gan Kim Yong said: "The labour market shows clear signs of recovery, in tandem with the strong economic recovery chalked up in Q1 2010.

    "We can expect job creation to continue for the rest of this year. Singapore has emerged from the downturn stronger, thanks to our strong tripartite relationship between workers, employers and the government.

    "Nevertheless, even as we get onto the path of recovery, I urge employers and employees to remain committed to Continuing Education and Training (CET).

    "SPUR is still in place till the end November 2010. Companies can and should continue to tap on SPUR to upgrade and upskill their workers. This will place them and their employees in a better position to capitalise on the opportunities that come with the recovery."

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    Singapore can look forward to good year
    S Ramesh
    Channel NewsAsia
    Friday, 30 April 2010, 1837 hrs


    Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong

    Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has declared this year a "good year", with Singapore emerging from the financial storm in a strong position.

    In his May Day message, he urged Singaporeans to take the opportunity to push forward with improving productivity and transforming the economy.

    Prime Minister Lee's optimism comes on the back of a revised growth forecast of 7 to 9% for Singapore economy this year.

    But he cautioned Singaporeans to see the remarkable performance in perspective.

    The first-quarter growth of 13% year on-year reflects the volatility of a small open economy.

    And Mr Lee said some sectors like electronics and biomedical sciences expanded sharply but others had not done quite as well.

    Prime Minister Lee believes that with everyone's concerted effort, Singapore can maintain its lead.

    While firms push on with the productivity effort, workers need to improve and achieve greater mastery at their jobs.

    Workers' upgrading is a marathon without a finish line, said Prime Minister Lee.

    He noted that during the downturn last year, workers had taken the opportunity to upgrade their skills.

    Mr Lee said this momentum must continue even as the economy has improved.

    He noted that with the strong pickup, many companies are restoring the wage cuts while others are awarding bonuses and increments, depending on their improved performances.

    He said these companies have remembered the sacrifices made by workers during the crisis.

    These actions are strengthening the trust between workers and employers, said Prime Minister Lee.

    He urged companies to work with unions to build up variable bonuses, and structure their wage systems to be more flexible over the longer term.

    Mr Lee credited tripartism as a key competitive advantage in Singapore, and promised to continue to pay special attention to low-wage workers.

    "Singapore has successfully tackled past challenges because of our strong tripartite partnership. Unions work with employers and the government to enlarge the pie so that all will have more to share," he said.

    "Investors and businesses value highly our collaborative spirit, facing difficulties and solving problems together. Our track record of tripartism is a key competitive advantage that wins investments and brings in jobs for Singaporeans," added Mr Lee.

    "Our union leaders understand what Singapore's prosperity, and our workers' well-being, depend upon. They know that there is no substitute for hard work, ingenuity and enterprise. They have done much to help workers understand the economic trends affecting them, and encourage them to go for retraining and upgrading," said Mr Lee.

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    Singapore employers boost payrolls for third straight quarter
    Bloomberg
    Singapore
    Friday, 30 April 2010, 10.28 am SGT/CCT

    Singapore employers expanded payrolls for a third straight quarter as faster economic growth prompted companies to increase hiring at casinos and factories.

    The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 2.2% in the 3 months ended March from a revised 2.3% the previous quarter, the Ministry of Manpower said today. The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of six economists was for a jobless rate of 2.1%. The city state added an estimated 34,000 new jobs last quarter.

    The prospect of better wages is prompting more Singaporeans to enter the labor force as the US$182 billion (S$249 billion) economy grew an annualized 32.1% in the first quarter from the previous 3 months. Rising job creation may fuel consumer spending and boost services, helping the economy achieve the government’s growth forecast this year of as much as 9%.

    Singapore’s second casino-resort, run by Las Vegas Sands Corp., opened on April 27, about 2 months after the opening of Genting Singapore Plc’s casino. Hiring by the resorts has boosted employment by the services industry, which added 31,200 jobs last quarter.

    The manufacturing industry added 3,400 jobs in the first 3 months of 2010, while construction companies shed 800 workers, the report showed.

    The Singapore economy added 37,600 new positions last year. Job creation is likely to pick up in 2010 as the expanding economy boosts hiring sentiment among companies, the central bank said in a report this week.

    “Employment prospects for the financial services sector will be buoyed by banks expanding their operations in anticipation of high demand for corporate banking and wealth management services in the region,” according to the central bank report.

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    国大初步数据:3月私宅转售价与巅峰期持平
    大众化与中档私宅价创新高

    李敏雯
    联合早报
    星期四, 29-4-2010

    据新加坡国立大学(NUS)编制的新加坡房地产价格指数(SRPI)初步数据显示,今年3月份的整体私宅转售价格已经几乎与2007年巅峰时期持平,大众化(OCR)中档(RCR)私宅价格已创下历来最高水平

    最新出炉的数据显示,与2月份比较,3月份整体私宅转售价格上涨0.3%,达到142.9点,逼近2007年11月巅峰水平的143点,显示整体私宅价格已从去年第一季的谷底迅速回弹到巅峰水平。

    其中非中央区的涨幅显著,一个月内上涨1.2%,较前个月的0.5%的涨幅高出许多;而被市场看好将在2010年复苏的中央区,价格不涨反跌,报151.8点,微跌0.07%。

    换言之,代表大众化和中档私宅的非中央区价格已刷新了历史纪录,目前的价位整整比2008年1月的巅峰水平高出6.4%。相比之下,代表高档私宅的中央区价格与2007年11月取得的历来最高点,还差了9.3%。

    资深房地产顾问麦俊荣受访时说:“中央区的这个跌幅让我感到意外,因为市场的感知是这个领域正在上涨,这显示仍有很多资金是流入非中央区的私宅。随着非中央区推出不少新公寓项目,新项目周边的公寓价格也被推高了。”

    他举例说,位于西海岸的The Vision就带动了周边公寓的价格上扬几个百分点。这个李嘉诚旗下的长江实业控股发展的项目是今年3月卖得最红火的项目,中位尺价高达1050元。

    卓登新达国际研究部主管陈瑞谨受访时也解释说:“由于国大的房地产指数追踪的是已竣工项目,而目前高档私宅的焦点主要在新登场的项目上,这显示新登场的高档项目已经抢去了已竣工项目的风头。”

    国大所编制的这个全新的房地产价格指数,追踪的是一篮子竣工不久到竣工十年的私人共管公寓项目,目前就包括了全岛26个邮区的364个私人共管公寓项目,共7万4359个单位的转售价格。篮子中不包括未竣工项目、有集体出售潜能的项目和单位少于40个的小项目。加上该指数追踪的是月对月的波动,因此与每季度市区重建局公布的房地产价格指数有本质上的不同。

    国大房地产指数中的中央区指的是第1到4(升涛湾、滨海湾一带)和第9至11邮区,其他则都属于非中央区范围。

    新数据也显示,今年第一季度私宅转售价格整体上扬2.8%,中央区则攀升1.6%,非中央区的价格上涨了4.4%。市建局上周五公布的完整数据则显示,第一季私宅价格上升5.6%。分析师认为两者的差距可能是因为市场对转售私宅的兴趣不如新私宅来得高。

    不过,整体私宅转售价格的涨幅已越趋缓和,涨幅较1月份放慢了步伐。该房地产指数今年1月份的修订数据显示,整体转售价上涨了2.2%,中央区上涨了1.6%,非中央区上涨了2.7%。但昨天出炉的2月份修订数据显示,这些涨幅分别只有0.4%、 0.1%和0.5%。

    尽管如此,分析师仍有信心,整体转售私宅和高档转售私宅的价格都将在今年突破巅峰水平。麦俊荣说:“今年我国经济已经从谷底回弹,加上大众化私宅卖得火红,预料当尺价越趋接近市区或市区周边的尺价时,买家就会把目光转向市区的房地产。”

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    Dont think this is the true stories that proud owner is expecting.
    There is definitely ppl who make losses in this market, especially so during the 08/09 period. Even in bull market like now, ppl who overpaid for the property (e.g the one with huge patio ), may not make profit.

    I think what proud owner wants to know is how many ppl are still eating bread everyday trying to sell off their properties after TOP, what is the actual rental fetched in the market. How many months hv one waited to get his TOP apartment rent out, etc.

    I believe there is plenty of such stories... I also cut 2 of my properties on rental by 10% to keep the tenants. But, i am lucky as the initial rental is quite high, so it is still above water compared to the instalment and maintenance.

    However, with the current situation, whether is bad news or good news, like many forumers (including myself) had mentioned, this recovery is a MUST happen. So overall sentiment on the market is still good, though some may be suffering now... the light is definitely out there at the end of the tunnel.





    Quote Originally Posted by calvenng
    Ya you want to hear True Stories of ME losing big monies in properties.

    Back in 1994/95 the properties market was so hot that you can bot a unit in the morning and sold it for $100k profits in the afternoon without even signing the option form. The govt was so angry that it introduce several measure in mid 1995 to "kill" the market. I was long 3 new condos bot for around $550psf. Just weeks before the announcement I got offer for 2 of the condo for $800 psf. Being very bullish n greedy I insist on $810 psf and so did not close the deals. After the announcement I offer those potential buyers $750 psf but they just vanished like thin air. Do you know how much psf I eventually sold those 2 units? $350 psf in 1997 I was so mad with the govt that I wrote n complain in all kind of newspapers almost everyweek about them causing the collapse of the property mkt in Spore. My wife nagged n called me the worst property investor in the Whole World non stop for the next few years . Because of that I decided to learn those painful lesson n swear that I will become a smart property investor to prove her wrong.

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    调查显示:72%国人喜欢住组屋 四房式最受欢迎
    联合晚报
    星期五, 30-4-2010

    72%的国人较喜欢住组屋,其中四房式最受欢迎

    在住屋方面,对对生活环境和住屋类型感到满意者,分别占受访者的92.4%和89.9%,而72%的国人愿意住组屋。

    马宝山说,国人过去喜欢五房式组屋,后来经济不景,更多人选择三房,现在则多要求四房。他说,建屋局会根据预购组屋项目的需求量,制订下各项目的各类型组屋数量。

    但他也强调,建屋局在满足人们住屋要求的同时,国人也必须了解,兴建组屋不是一朝一夕的事,需至少2到3年时间。

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    Hi, Reporter,
    You must be long few hundred condos in Spore. Keep publishing all the hype up news on Spore economy n property.

    If Spore economy n employment is so good why all my frds above 40 still cannot find job for the past 2 yrs. The reality is that 99% of the jobs created for locals are shit jobs paying less than $1500 pm.The good jobs all went to foreign "talent" .MOM has failed n keep padding their own shoulder with misleading data.The future is that all the nice condos are occupied by foreigners and real native citizen can only stay in suburbs n HDB, looking envily at their "foreign invaders".

    You should paste those negative articles too, like the one about the imminent collapse of Europe's financial system in today's Today paper page 30.
    Headline : Begining of the end for the euro?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Douk
    Dont think this is the true stories that proud owner is expecting.
    There is definitely ppl who make losses in this market, especially so during the 08/09 period. Even in bull market like now, ppl who overpaid for the property (e.g the one with huge patio ), may not make profit.

    I think what proud owner wants to know is how many ppl are still eating bread everyday trying to sell off their properties after TOP, what is the actual rental fetched in the market. How many months hv one waited to get his TOP apartment rent out, etc.

    I believe there is plenty of such stories... I also cut 2 of my properties on rental by 10% to keep the tenants. But, i am lucky as the initial rental is quite high, so it is still above water compared to the instalment and maintenance.

    However, with the current situation, whether is bad news or good news, like many forumers (including myself) had mentioned, this recovery is a MUST happen. So overall sentiment on the market is still good, though some may be suffering now... the light is definitely out there at the end of the tunnel.

    strong growth will kill the property market. strong growth means high interest rates, and the current boom in real estate will probably die instantly.

    currently, DBS charges 2.5% for home loans, which is just slightly lower than the rental yields for many upscale condos in CBD. rivergate's yield is about 3%, or only 2.7% if you factor in the property tax of 10%. so, many the owners are already losing money if one take into consideration maintenance fee.

    if economy recovers very quickely, interest rates will shoot up. then, all bets are off.
    Last edited by stalingrad; 30-04-10 at 20:45.

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    Quote Originally Posted by calvenng, 30 April 2010 8.00 pm
    Hi, Reporter,
    You must be long few hundred condos in Spore. Keep publishing all the hype up news on Spore economy n property.

    If Spore economy n employment is so good why all my frds above 40 still cannot find job for the past 2 yrs. The reality is that 99% of the jobs created for locals are shit jobs paying less than $1500 pm.The good jobs all went to foreign "talent" .MOM has failed n keep padding their own shoulder with misleading data.The future is that all the nice condos are occupied by foreigners and real native citizen can only stay in suburbs n HDB, looking envily at their "foreign invaders".

    You should paste those negative articles too, like the one about the imminent collapse of Europe's financial system in today's Today paper page 30.
    Headline : Begining of the end for the euro?
    Since you claimed you are "smart", you should go help your friends who are in trouble instead of barking here.

    You have articles/news to post, just post them. Don't expect others to be your slave and post it for you.

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    i cannot disagree with you, but i think, the situation now is slightly different.

    There are more components on the balance instead of just interest rate and growth. The American and European are still trying hard to recover, so they will be very careful in playing the interest rate card. As long as the interest rate remain low there, it will help to pull down interest rate on the rest of the world.. eventually, the americans will recover, when that happens, perhaps, the interest rate will start to grow.. and it may be our doom days.
    But this will be at least few years later, I believe.

    So for now, i still want to hitch the next bull run.. i hope so.

    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    strong growth will kill the property market. strong growth means high interest rates, and the current boom in real estate will probably die instantly.

    currently, DBS charges 2.5% for home loans, which is just slightly lower than the rental yields for many upscale condos in CBD. rivergate's yield is about 3%, or only 2.7% if you factor in the property tax of 10%. so, many the owners are already losing money if one take into consideration maintenance fee.

    if economy recovers very quickely, interest rates will shoot up. then, all bets are off.

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    Sibor follows Fed interest rates closely. MAS uses exchange tightening, by allowing SGD appreciation, as the means to control inflation. So we are in a very strange situation. Interest rates are kept low by the US even though our economy is doing great.

    In the US, I don't see the Fed raise interest rates away from the near zero until the unemployment goes down from the current 10%.

    I see the interest rates will stay low for a while.

    We are stuck in this low interest, high economic growth situation in Singapore.

    Amazing situation for property market for the next 2 years, especially for the local market like HDB, mass market and landed ppty. But foreigner led high end mkt will still lag until the global economy starts roaring ahead.

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    H88 Property Charts: URA and HDB Quarterly Data
    H88
    Thursday, 29 April 2010, 11:17

    Property price data released for the first quarter 2010 by HDB and URA have been included in our H88 Property Charts. Have a quick look at some fancy charts and graphs, beats all the numbers the other news outlets have been churning out!

    Here are some key highlights:
    HDB Median Resale Prices by Flat Type, Quarterly (2007Q3 - 2010Q1)

    HDB prices are steadily increasing, no doubt making homeowners happy. There was no sign even of a slowdown during the financial crisis in late 2008/early 2009.



    Private Property Price Index, Quarterly (2000-2010)

    The steep recovery shows prices are on their way back to pre-crisis levels.



    Private Property Price Index by Locality, Quarterly (2004-2010)

    OCR and RCR prices have already gone past pre-crisis levels. And for the first time in 12 months, RCR prices have finally overtaken OCR prices. Very obviously CCR prices still have some way to go before it reaches the highs of 2008.



    Private Property Vacancy Rate (2006 to 2010)

    For those with fëärs of an övërsüpply looming, this chart tells you those fëärs are ünwärräntëd. Väcäncy rates are going döwn.

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    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    if economy recovers very quickely, interest rates will shoot up. then, all bets are off.
    for the fun of it: if the economy recovers very quickly, everything will be good, income will be up, then the high pty price will suddenly become "justified" isn't it ?

    just kidding... it's not so simple. interest rate higher does not mean the doom of pty. in fact if memory serves me right, when interest rate was high, pty price was even higher.

    current situation is more like taking advantage of the US fed policy. it will be silly not to profit from it. Exactly as Localite put it: MAS policy put us in a unique position. I still remember SOR dropping from 0.46 to 0.30 in 2 days after MAS S$ statement.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Since you claimed you are "smart", you should go help your friends who are in trouble instead of barking here.

    You have articles/news to post, just post them. Don't expect others to be your slave and post it for you.
    Sorry my reporter friend, thought you are working for this website and your job is a unbiase reporter

    Anyway that article remind me of this : This period resemble that of Feb-Jun 2008 where property prices was transacted at new highs week after week. Pause during July -Oct 2008 n then gap down in Jan -Apr 2009. In Apr 2008 Bear Stearn(Greece now?) collapse n was rescue by the US govt (EU now?). US has huge debts(more than US$100 trillion ) to repay from the 3rd quarter of 2010. Wud they be able to renew those loan? If they default will it be another Lehman debacle that send the World's stock mkts towards a freefall? If you are over stretch and need to sell, better do it now n sell at mkt before it is too late By July when it is more clear cut that there will be bad news out of the West, it will be very hard to find buyers who are willing to buy your property at your price.
    Hope I m wrong.

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    I think the cards of PIGS will fall one after another. How long can they last? There is no optimism. From investment to junk status can be in a matter of overnite. Now is really not time to overstretch. I rather conserve for the next downturn.

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    Quote Originally Posted by amk
    Quote Originally Posted by stalingrad
    if economy recovers very quickely, interest rates will shoot up. then, all bets are off.
    for the fun of it: if the economy recovers very quickly, everything will be good, income will be up, then the high pty price will suddenly become "justified" isn't it ?

    just kidding... it's not so simple. interest rate higher does not mean the doom of pty. in fact if memory serves me right, when interest rate was high, pty price was even higher.
    Your memory has served your right.



    In fact, I am anxiously awaiting interest rate going back above 10%.

    That'll be really interesting days!




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    Quote Originally Posted by Douk
    Dont think this is the true stories that proud owner is expecting.
    There is definitely ppl who make losses in this market, especially so during the 08/09 period. Even in bull market like now, ppl who overpaid for the property (e.g the one with huge patio ), may not make profit.

    I think what proud owner wants to know is how many ppl are still eating bread everyday trying to sell off their properties after TOP, what is the actual rental fetched in the market. How many months hv one waited to get his TOP apartment rent out, etc.

    I believe there is plenty of such stories... I also cut 2 of my properties on rental by 10% to keep the tenants. But, i am lucky as the initial rental is quite high, so it is still above water compared to the instalment and maintenance.

    However, with the current situation, whether is bad news or good news, like many forumers (including myself) had mentioned, this recovery is a MUST happen. So overall sentiment on the market is still good, though some may be suffering now... the light is definitely out there at the end of the tunnel.


    Thank you Douk

    thats precisely what i am looking for ....

    i do agree that we are in a property bull run..and can continue its northward course , or a flat line for sometime ..

    i am not praying for a crash .. cos i still have properties in spore ..

    i just feel that a good forum is one where we see contributions on both constructive views/opinions from the bulls .. and real case of wrong investments in the same bull run ..

    somehow we only see damn good news .. and no bad news ..

    the need to also high light bad news is important, as i believe there are many here are psyched into buying ..what i also called, Herd instinct ..

    they might have followed blindly and made money.. good for them..

    i think as seasoned investors ..like so many here .. i just feel the need to also educate the new comers .. at least high light the risks involved in such investments .. by providing balanced reports ( not referring to Reporter) , or like a few forumers, giving their views .. on developments in other regions what might affect spore property mkts in the negative ways ..

    sad to see that many here immediately pounced on those who posted warnings ..

    no one wants a crash .. we are all here to also make money ..

    but if our views is One way ..it is very easy to affect those less informed into following blindly .. and if these failed investments start to 'cut' or forced sell their properties ..it will evenutally also affect those whos portfolio are currently making money

    if majority here feels that there is NO case of failed/lousy investment between 2006-2010 , and are NOT reported .. then i will not dwell on this topic anymore ..

    i can always sing praises ... afterall i have very good investments still, and very good rental yield .. i am more than happy for the bull to keep charging ...

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    The Infiniti has a nëw hïgh of $912 psf!


    The Infiniti
    Address .............................. psf ............ Area ........ Price .......... Contract Date
    39B West Coast Park #06-03 .... $912 psf .... 904 sqft .... $825,000 .... 26 Mar 10

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    I think some people here are holding very dangerous views - dangerous to themselves - because the upside risk of properties is many many times the downside risk.

    Let's look back to 1984, when Pin Tjoe Park was sold for $882,000, and immediately crashed to $547,000 (down 38%) in the 1985 recession and finally enbloced in 2006 for $5.5 million each.

    If you bet wrong on properties and even if the market corrects 38%, that's only a minor irritation compared to missing out on $5.5 million (+532%).

    Do not underestimate the power of properties because properties have the ability to segregate society into the "haves" and "have nots" with the latter group ending up in another forum called the Straits Times Complainers' forum.

    Already, some members here are beginning to exhibit certain character traits of the "have nots", like "concern for society", "concern about the sustainability of the property market", "worried that en bloc will cause Singapore to lose its heritage etc". Just like when Al Gore lost the US election to George W. Bush, he immediately became an environmentalist and "very concerned" about the environment.


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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    I think some people here are holding very dangerous views - dangerous to themselves - because the upside risk of properties is many many times the downside risk.

    Let's look back to 1984, when Pin Tjoe Park was sold for $882,000, and immediately crashed to $547,000 (down 38%) in the 1985 recession and finally enbloced in 2006 for $5.5 million each.

    If you bet wrong on properties and even if the market corrects 38%, that's only a minor irritation compared to missing out on $5.5 million (+532%).

    Do not underestimate the power of properties because properties have the ability to segregate society into the "haves" and "have nots" with the latter group ending up in another forum called the Straits Times Complainer's forum.

    Already, some members here are already exhibiting certain character traits of the "have nots", like "concern for society", "concern about the sustainability of the property market", "worried that en bloc will cause Singapore to lose its heritage etc". Just like when Al Gore lost the US election to George W. Bush, he immediately became an environmentalist and "very concerned" about the environment.


    i hope you are not implying that i am a complainer .. since i am concerned about those who invest blindly ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter, The Stellar, 1 May 2010 12.27 am
    This is the nëw hïgh of $1,108 psf you are referring to.


    The Stellar
    Address .............................. psf .............. Area ......... Price ......... Contract Date
    14 West Coast Road #02-15 .... $1,108 psf .... 614 sqft .... $680,000 .... 29 Mar 10



    This is the low psf you are referring to.


    The Stellar
    Address ............................ psf ............ Area ........... Price ............ Contract Date
    6 West Coast Road #05-01 .... $675 psf .... 1,851 sqft .... $1,250,000 .... 6 Apr 10
    The Stellar in District 5 West Coast has some actions too!

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    Quote Originally Posted by august
    anyone who bought in 2004 to 2006 would be sitting on huge profits today..
    a lot of times is not about the smarts, but more timing and 时势 that comes once in a long time ~~

    in general it is still true that if hold property for long enough a time frame, will have capital gains.

    my tiny 1 cent
    Haha.. my favourite quote from HK Investor.. - "有智慧不如逞势“.

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