But then if the market is so predictable, every one would have been rich
... I'm not so sure the market is crashing....let's see how farrer court sells
Junior
But then if the market is so predictable, every one would have been rich
... I'm not so sure the market is crashing....let's see how farrer court sells
Go for Smallest Unit
Last ec la casa before financial crisis.Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
Junior
while the market may or may not crash, it is very unlikely buyers in today's market will make any money. buy low and sell high. never buy high and sell low.But then if the market is so predictable, every one would have been rich
... I'm not so sure the market is crashing....let's see how farrer court sells
Global recession is coming....
This forum consists of many experienced investors. If 99% are all bullish (particularly those who have been bearish all along), then the market would probably crash. Seems like not time yet (the price upside still have a lot of legs judging from the very bearish comments from these people).
Junior
you are wrong. we are strictly in the minority. therefore, watch out.This forum consists of many experienced investors. If 99% are all bullish (particularly those who have been bearish all along), then the market would probably crash. Seems like not time yet (the price upside still have a lot of legs judging from the very bearish comments from these people).
Exalted
Dun sell yet. GE COMING. sell after tat
Junior
Think there a bullish guy for every bearish guy in this forum. Maybe we should start a new thread, requesting everyone to vote, then we'll know
The next question is whether this forum is a typical cross section across the property buying crowd, or just the more kaypoh one....
At the end, there will still not be a conclusion to whether the market is going to crash, depending on whether you're an contrarian or a trend follower.
So it's all futile
Junior
haha, i am definitely one of the kayboh crowd.
Junior
With today's 0 interest rate environment, asset inflation is inevitable. Even MAS acknowledged that.
Many are treating pty as a way to park cash. Just like some parking in gold. Why no one says there is a gold bubble ?
Before QE2, everyone said USD is going down the drain. Today, thanks to Ireland and Korea, USD went up sharply. Nothing is so predictable.
Interest rate is going to remain low for a long time. Ppl will have to buy something. It's either pty, gold, or stocks. Avoiding pty bubble just leads u to another gold or stocks bubble. Particularly in Asia, or Chinese, ppl are far more obsessed with pty than gold.
I remain unconvinced this pty market is already peak.
Go for Smallest Unit
How about govt taking care of developers instead. Have a gd reason to sell more and sell low due to conservative bids . But developer have holding power can price even higher. So u have less volume but same margins. Price only go up in the long run
Newbie
who knows if different results come out of GE, it may cause some to cheong further... ( or deflate some )Dun sell yet. GE COMING. sell after tat
Global recession is coming....
According to a survey of fund managers and those investment newsletters (many written by well-known investment professionals), the majority are always wrong, regardless of how much credential these people have. As such, so when majority are bullish, then probably it will crash. As of now, many experienced investors are still bearish, so still a lot of room for upside. (Don't think you are considered experienced investors?)
Senior
ahahhah
actually quite true
thinking back ... almost after all the EC launches ..mkt came off
Senior
i am not sure broThis forum consists of many experienced investors. If 99% are all bullish (particularly those who have been bearish all along), then the market would probably crash. Seems like not time yet (the price upside still have a lot of legs judging from the very bearish comments from these people).
but i know for a fact .. 2 of the MOST BULLISH forumers have disappeared ..
Propertism God..... Jlrx,
NEW HIGH KING .....Reporter
.
both disappeared for a long time .... Property-owner the one with 40 over properties .. he hasnt been online for a long time too ... sincerely hope he is well ...
if he is reading this ..maybe he can pm me ....
Junior
My friend told me a shocking fact: when he was accumulating SPH stocks last week, his counterparty was consistently Goldman Sche. So the Big Boy is exiting even for "defensive" stocks! Imagine if you had entered the market at STI 2000, it is happy time to take profit at STI 3100. The up side is limited. My friend has sold most of his stocks this week. He is now 70% in cash now.
Japan market is moving up recently - finall! Nikke 225 is the only index still trading at crsis level. Of course, you need to discount the Yen currency apprecation.
When I was travelling in Japan, I was shocked to know some of the Singapore property is higher than that of Japan now. With US real interest rate at -0.5% and Japan real interest rate at +0.1%, it is time to have USD carry trade (borrow USD and invest in Japan).
Thanks,
Richard
Emeritus Senior
Those 2 disappeared almost immediately after the new rules were announced...perhaps rushing to sell their props...
Go for Smallest Unit
Maybe die of heart attack or kanna stroke. Maybe travel overseas too
Last edited by kingkong1984; 27-11-10 at 08:17.
Senior
Yah loh, I am lost now without my Propertism God and his Gospel....
Senior
Signs of price sofening judging by today's advertisment.
Cityscape @ farrer park from 1235psf
Vacanza @ east from 975psf
Or is it fake advertisment to get people to go and have a look.
Exalted
The keyword is FROM
Newbie
D23...asking $960K for few months...now asking $930K for the past 2 weeks...and no firm offers according to agent. Watching...watching...watching...Signs of price sofening judging by today's advertisment.
Cityscape @ farrer park from 1235psf
Vacanza @ east from 975psf
Or is it fake advertisment to get people to go and have a look.
Go for Smallest Unit
Yes, all watching, do you know why? Its because d23 is getting hot with the mrt line. Govt have to increase supply to keep it cool there. Go count how d23 sites released, you will get the point. Developer not stupid, will continue to sell high high to protect their many many unsold units.
Junior
D23 along the Upper Bukit Timah corridor probably still one of the most undervalued areas (poor accessibility means non-drivers never consider this area). Even today, the full value is not going to be realised until the MRT is completed. Non-drivers or some families with only one car will not buy a unit to "suffer" 5 years with poor public transport. But poor public transport also ensure the area is more laid back - no rowdy teenagers hang around the area since it's so inaccessible.
Northwest definitely has greater lush greenery, unspoilt nature, feels more exclusive than northeast like Punggol, Hougang and Sengkang. I think some of the D23 sites like Hillview will be be "hotter" than the northeastern sites.
Go for Smallest Unit
Well said, the hillview area is like a new town going to be. More land there to support mrt ridership. Better connected to bukit timah, you will see new and young families buying.
Junior
Of course the majority is wrong.....and poor.According to a survey of fund managers and those investment newsletters (many written by well-known investment professionals), the majority are always wrong, regardless of how much credential these people have. As such, so when majority are bullish, then probably it will crash. As of now, many experienced investors are still bearish, so still a lot of room for upside. (Don't think you are considered experienced investors?)
Why do you think the rich is a minority?
Anybody ever heard of a country where the majority is rich and minority poor?
Junior
SPH at 4.2 is almost at the peak level as in 2007. I'm not that surprised ppl are selling.
And GS is probably selling on behalf of its client. I dun think we can track "big boys" this way.
Global recession is coming....
They turned bearish? Since more people bearish means property prices should be more bullish? (according to theory that majority always wrong!). Even Nobel prize winners for Economics can run LTCM hedge fund into bankruptcy by predicting the market wrongly, so who can claim they know the property prices will surely go up or down? They better than those Nobel prize winners for Economics?
Senior
(SINGAPORE) The prices of luxury condos have continued to rise this year but a new rule may soon tie the hands of the developers.
Till now, many have picked their time to launch developments when sentiments are good and decent prices can be charged. But under the rule changes which are expected to kick in early next year, they may lose this luxury.
If they bust the project completion period on sites bought from private sector sources, they stand to lose not just the 10 per cent bankers' guarantee for land cost, but could also end up making huge payments for time extension.
All this could force them to launch earlier than they might like and affect prices, market watchers said.
The median price of new luxury condo transactions stood at $3,265 per square foot in Q3 this year, an increase of 18.7 per cent year to date, according to CB Richard Ellis' analysis. However, the figure is still about 13 per cent shy of the peak achieved in Q4 2007.
A question mark now hangs over whether the previous peak median price of $3,750 psf can be scaled next year.
CBRE's compilation shows about 1,500-odd luxury non-landed homes could be generated on projects that have received planning approval from Urban Redevelopment Authority and which have yet to be launched. These include five projects in the Ardmore Park area alone, the Westwood site at Orchard Boulevard, the former Parisian plot at Angullia Park and Ho Bee's and IOI's 302-unit condo on the Pinnacle Collection plot at Sentosa Cove.
CBRE executive director (residential) Joseph Tan says: 'Developers' strategy in the first instance, would be to hold off launching these projects as long as they can until sentiment improves further in this segment.'
Agreeing, Wheelock Properties (Singapore) CEO David Lawrence says: 'Traditionally, developers know that for really high-end projects on very good sites like Ardmore Park, if you just keep them in your pockets, eventually prices will come up and they make money. But developers can't do that anymore.'
The catch is the amendment to the Residential Property Act that will apply to private residential projects undertaken by foreign housing developers with Qualifying Certificates (QCs), a category which effectively covers all listed developers.
Such projects, built on residential sites bought from private-sector sources, will in future have to be completed within the stipulated project completion period (PCP). Otherwise, the developers may not only lose their bankers' guarantees as is the case currently but also have to pay the state for any time extension.
This is similar to the scheme for sites sold through the Government Land Sales Programme. Developers have to pay 8 per cent of the tendered land price for the first year of PCP extension. They must pay 16 per cent for the second year's extension and 24 per cent per annum for the third and subsequent years.
CBRE's Mr Tan estimates that since it takes 30-36 months to complete a typical high-rise condo, and assuming developers need to attain Temporary Occupation Permit (TOP) by 2014-2015, construction would have to begin around 2011-2012.
That still leaves some room to avoid a bunching of project launches given that on average, developers have been able to sell an average of about 650 non-landed homes per year at above $2,000 psf over the past five years.
One way that deep-pocketed developers may get out of the bind is to build their projects first - and meet PCP deadlines - but launch them for sale only when the sentiment is good.
For this reason, most property consultants don't expect developers to drop prices. 'But there's a good chance they may have to reduce their profit expectations if they wish to clear the units,' says Knight Frank managing director (residential services) Peter Ow. While he's betting there's a fair chance that the market could revisit the 2007-high in luxury condo prices next year, others are less sanguine.
As Mr Lawrence puts it: 'Prime property in the long term will still do very well in Singapore, but it's a difficult period at the moment. There's plenty of demand. I think prices won't come down much, but they won't go up to the level that developers are expecting; perhaps (they'll have to) make much finer profit margins.'
There have been 'one-off' cases of high-priced transactions lately - such as a high-floor apartment at Boulevard Vue that Far East Organization sold last month for $4,800 psf reportedly to a foreign buyer. 'However, we'll need to see more foreign money flowing into Singapore. Right now, Singapore luxury condo prices are still below those in other major cities including London, where prime apartments are going for about ????pounds;2,500-4,000 psf' (S$5,205-8,329) says CBRE's Mr Tan.
DTZ South-east Asia research head Chua Chor Hoon said: 'With the major economies still weak, foreign buyers have not come back to Singapore in a big way yet.'
Knight Frank's Mr Ow is hopeful that 'property curbs in China and Hong Kong could divert some moneys to Singapore and boost our high-end market'.
Junior
The keyword is "FROM".. as for Cityscape @ Farrer Pk.. is from 1235psf to almost 1650psfSigns of price sofening judging by today's advertisment.
Cityscape @ farrer park from 1235psf
Vacanza @ east from 975psf
Or is it fake advertisment to get people to go and have a look.
Newbie
Latest property news from propertyguru.com...
Prices of non-landed private housing fell 0.7% in October.
Mass market non-landed...to see another 10% drop.
Have a friend who was holding investment prop for 15 yrs...saw all the land being released, decided to take profit and watch the show from sidelines. His property had doubled in value over the years, but he sees no more upside in the short term.
Is the GSS for mass market condos akan datang???
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