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Thread: From 'deep winter' to a 'hot summer'

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    Default From 'deep winter' to a 'hot summer'

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Money/St...ry_471728.html

    Dec 30, 2009

    THE YEAR IN PROPERTY

    From 'deep winter' to a 'hot summer'

    The fast and furious pick-up in the Singapore private homes market around the middle of the year caught everyone by surprise. Wasn't there supposed to be a recession? Joyce Teo looks at what happened during the year.


    An artist's impression of the Optima @ Tanah Merah condo which sold out amid the market upswing. -- PHOTO: HONG LEONG GROUP

    IT WAS the rally that should never have happened. The world was in recession, credit was being crunched, investors across the board were in a state of near panic, yet no one seemed to have told real estate buyers.

    After a tentative few months early in the year, property found its feet and staged the sort of upswing normally associated with economic booms, not near-busts.

    Indeed, this year saw a recovery of Singapore's residential market, said Frasers Centrepoint chief executive Lim Ee Seng.

    'We expected 2009 to be a very bad year for us but it turned out to be a good year,' said EL Development managing director Lim Yew Soon.

    Jones Lang LaSalle's head of research for South-east Asia, Dr Chua Yang Liang, agreed: 'It's been a remarkable year - with transaction and pricing outperforming expectations, driven by latent demand, low interest rates and primed by lower pricing.'

    Sales and prices of new private homes picked up significantly from April, a turnaround from the first quarter when sellers were cutting prices just to offload their homes.

    As the private homes market swung quickly from despondency at the start of the year to 'unwarranted enthusiasm' in the middle, this year turned out to be a 'record-breaking' one, said DTZ head of South-east Asia research Chua Chor Hoon.

    Record quarterly and monthly highs were achieved for launches and sales of new private homes while some new launches outside the city area sold at record prices, said Ms Chua.

    Centro Residences in Ang Mo Kio, for instance, sold for more than $1,100 per sq ft (psf) - a suburban record.

    Resale landed homes in prime districts also hit record prices while resale mass market home prices rebounded within two quarters to reach 2007 peak levels, Ms Chua added.

    The four seasons

    'ONE of the hot topics this year was climate change, and if you apply that to the property market, it went through the four seasons for the first time ever,' said Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng.

    The market is now in a 'mild winter' state, after a hectic year with an unusually hot summer, he said.

    It started the year in deep winter - with only 108 new homes sold in January - the worst monthly sale figure on record. The mood was clearly grim.

    Then came spring and sales quickly started to rise in February, easily pushing past the 1,000-unit mark to reach 1,332 units. March was similarly positive at 1,220 units.

    By the time summer rolled around, market sentiment had improved tremendously.

    Despite the heat, buyers were queueing outside showflats, eagerly awaiting their turn to pick a mass market unit.

    Showflats of newly released projects aimed at HDB upgraders were packed to the brim on preview days with investors, singles, couples and families - often with grandparents in tow.

    With affordability a key issue, developers turned to producing smaller and smaller units to satisfy those looking for an 'affordable' total outlay; never mind that the psf price may be high.

    EL Development's Mr Lim said: 'Developers had to react to the market very fast. We were lucky to switch to small units for Illuminaire fast. Otherwise, we won't be able to sell it out and at the price we achieved.'

    Sales of new homes kept rising each month, culminating in a monthly record of 2,772 units in July.

    'We were supposed to be in a recession. The Government was talking about job losses which hit the lower-income group,' said Knight Frank managing director, residential services Peter Ow.

    'Given the bleak outlook at that point, the momentum was surprising. It shows that you can never underestimate the purchasing power of the upgraders.'

    Considering that the 2006-07 boom was led by the high-end segment with foreigners buying up a storm, many doubted the 'bottom-up' recovery was for real.

    But it kept going strong amid concerns that a property bubble might be developing.

    Government made its move

    THAT prompted the Government to step in with anti-speculative measures in September.

    It took away the interest absorption scheme, which allows buyers to defer payment until the project is completed, and said it will push out more supply.

    An Urban Redevelopment Authority sample survey of recently launched projects showed that the average take-up rate of the interest absorption scheme was about 20 per cent to 25 per cent.

    Property experts said at the time that the measures were minor and meant to get buyers to think twice about committing.

    The Government continued to warn of the possibility of the market overheating. What followed seemed to suggest the measures had worked to some degree.

    Signs of speculation disappeared, launches slowed and buyers were no longer rushing into new showflats to check out the latest launch and commit their cash.

    Sales of new private homes slipped to 600 units last month, the second-lowest monthly sales this year.

    But Jones Lang LaSalle's Dr Chua feels the market will not see the full effect of the measures until early next year as activity traditionally winds down towards Christmas.

    Ngee Ann Polytechnic lecturer Nicholas Mak believes there is a slowdown because developers have more or less run out of mass market projects while the high-end segment has yet to take off.

    Looking ahead

    EXPERTS say the slowdown - what DTZ's Ms Chua describes as a 'quieter and more rational mode' - is a good thing.

    It is a precursor to next year's trend when the market is generally expected to revert to normal in terms of sales and upward price movements.

    The bet is on a pick-up in the high-end segment as it has yet to push near previous peaks, experts say. With the opening of the two integrated resorts, more foreigners are expected to enter the Singapore market.

    Dr Chua believes the high-end segment is likely to outperform the mass market on two levels.

    Firstly, buyers of high-end homes are not so dependent on interest rates, which have been one of the key drivers in the mass market.

    'I reckon there is an upside to the currently low interest rates as we go into the second half of 2010 and that is likely to keep mass market activity in check,' he said.

    'Secondly, regional economies have been performing better than expected and we can expect some of the higher-income foreigners to return to the Singapore market by the second to third quarter of 2010.'

    Dr Chua does not expect a buying surge but more moderate growth.

    'I would describe the period since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the later half of 2008 as that of a landscape of rolling hills. And now as we ascend, no one can really see what lies behind the knoll,' he said.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    http://www.straitstimes.com/Money/St...ry_471728.html

    Dec 30, 2009

    THE YEAR IN PROPERTY

    From 'deep winter' to a 'hot summer'

    The fast and furious pick-up in the Singapore private homes market around the middle of the year caught everyone by surprise. Wasn't there supposed to be a recession? Joyce Teo looks at what happened during the year.
    The moral of the story is to have faith in the Propertism religion.

    In Propertism, we believe that property prices will always go up in the long term, simply because cash will lose its value.

    If the market plunges, just close your eyes and pray to Propertism. Switch off your internet browser; don't read any property-related news; don't come to this forum.

    No matter what, don't sell!

    Such trying periods will sieve out the truely faithful Propertists from those whose faith is weak. Those who faith is weak will be punished. This year the punishment is swift and painful, but sometimes it can take 30 years.

    Remember, properties should only be bought. Not sold.

    If you sell to bargain hunters during the plunge (not the "bargain hunter" specifically in this forum), you must ask "Why do they want to buy it from you?"

    If they are looking towards future price gains from the purchase, then why shouldn't you be the one to benefit from such price gains, rather than the bargain hunters?

    Therefore, always remember. Properties should only be bought. Not sold.

    Unless, like another forumer HP65 once said, it is acquired by the Government (can't be helped) or en-bloced (then quickly buy a replacment property).

    Remember to always keep the faith.

    Our Religious Elder - Property_Owner - has shown his deep faith by holding 40+ properties. He said that if his brand of toothpaste makes it big in China, he will join the ranks of the billionaires. I hope that he will succeed so that he will show even deeper faith by holding 400+ or even 4000+ properties.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    The moral of the story is to have faith in the Propertism religion.

    In Propertism, we believe that property prices will always go up in the long term, simply because cash will lose its value.

    If the market plunges, just close your eyes and pray to Propertism. Switch off your internet browser; don't read any property-related news; don't come to this forum.

    No matter what, don't sell!

    Such trying periods will sieve out the truely faithful Propertists from those whose faith is weak. Those who faith is weak will be punished. This year the punishment is swift and painful, but sometimes it can take 30 years.

    Remember, properties should only be bought. Not sold.

    If you sell to bargain hunters during the plunge (not the "bargain hunter" specifically in this forum), you must ask "Why do they want to buy it from you?"

    If they are looking towards future price gains from the purchase, then why shouldn't you be the one to benefit from such price gains, rather than the bargain hunters?

    Therefore, always remember. Properties should only be bought. Not sold.

    Unless, like another forumer HP65 once said, it is acquired by the Government (can't be helped) or en-bloced (then quickly buy a replacment property).

    Remember to always keep the faith.

    Our Religious Elder - Property_Owner - has shown his deep faith by holding 40+ properties. He said that if his brand of toothpaste makes it big in China, he will join the ranks of the billionaires. I hope that he will succeed so that he will show even deeper faith by holding 400+ or even 4000+ properties.
    You are uttering pure rubbish of propertism. If property is bought and never sold, how on earth to extract VALUE from owning it ?. If you objective is not value extraction the what and why ?

    What religious Elder of propertism ? Property_Owner is "Property" + "Owner" who appearred in no less than 40 threads of properties here. Here is one who claimed to own 5 units of Sails but then refute to say 2 only lah anyway juz heard he bought a sub-sale at SouthPoint. Talk is cheap in anonymiety.

    Someone who truly own 40 properties is not likely to be an individual spending all his time in this forum but likely to run a company managing it. Owning 40 properties alone is still it is a far cry from "billionaire".

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    Quote Originally Posted by alamak
    What religious Elder of propertism ? Property_Owner is "Property" + "Owner" who appearred in no less than 40 threads of properties here. Here is one who claimed to own 5 units of Sails but then refute to say 2 only lah anyway juz heard he bought a sub-sale at SouthPoint. Talk is cheap in anonymiety.

    Someone who truly own 40 properties is not likely to be an individual spending all his time in this forum but likely to run a company managing it. Owning 40 properties alone is still it is a far cry from "billionaire".
    Maybe we should organise a small kopi-chat session to see the real deal That is if he's not too busy with his schedule. There's so much we can learn from the religious elder of propertyism as professed by jlrx.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alamak, 10.28 am
    You are uttering pure rubbish of propertism. If property is bought and never sold, how on earth to extract VALUE from owning it ?. If you objective is not value extraction the what and why ?

    What religious Elder of propertism ? Property_Owner is "Property" + "Owner" who appearred in no less than 40 threads of properties here. Here is one who claimed to own 5 units of Sails but then refute to say 2 only lah anyway juz heard he bought a sub-sale at SouthPoint. Talk is cheap in anonymiety.

    Someone who truly own 40 properties is not likely to be an individual spending all his time in this forum but likely to run a company managing it. Owning 40 properties alone is still it is a far cry from "billionaire".
    Are you sure "Property_Owner" says he is a billionaire? I thought he is poorer than his friend, Kwek. So can he still be a ...?

    Seriously, what you said about "Property_Owner" make sense too. Why don't you do a check on him on our behalf?

    Why don't you have breakfast at Lau Pa Sat on Sunday morning? There is this row of tables and chairs setup early morning by the Lau Pa Sat staffs for a group of old retired businessmen from CBD. You may see an AMG but it is not his car. Maybe his is somewhere near this AMG.


    Religion is a personal thing. It is up to individual to accept "jlrx"'s "propertism". I am a non-believer of "propertism" now. However, I must admit that I have been rethinking some of my strategies/plans the last one month due to his preaching. Who knows? Maybe some of my properties may end up as "offerings" to "propertism" 6 to 12 months down the road?


    By the way, do you mean "Southbank" or "SouthPoint"?
    Quote Originally Posted by focus, 10.36 am
    Maybe we should organise a small kopi-chat session to see the real deal That is if he's not too busy with his schedule. There's so much we can learn from the religious elder of propertyism as professed by jlrx.
    Sounds cool!

    I think, unlike "Property_Owner", "jlrx" is quite busy. It may be a challenge to meet him. I hope I can check him, you and the rest out one day.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alamak
    You are uttering pure rubbish of propertism. If property is bought and never sold, how on earth to extract VALUE from owning it ?. If you objective is not value extraction the what and why ?
    I can see that you have not seen "The Light" in Propertism.

    You still see "VALUE" = "CASH".

    I am now going to convert you, by telling you that "VALUE" = "PROPERTIES" !!!

    The problem why many people view cash, rather than properties, as "VALUE", is the fault of the song "Sing a Song of Sixpence".

    Sing a song of sixpence,
    A pocket full of rye ...

    The king was in his counting house,
    Counting out his money ...



    As a result, many people only see "CASH" as valuable, and it's only when houses are sold and "realised" into "CASH" which they then deposit into their bank, that they see "VALUE".

    These people look forward to viewing their internet bank statements, and feel very assured only when they can count the number of zeroes in their "net position" (which is the modern equivalent of the King counting his money).

    This is wrong. "HOUSES" is also "VALUE".

    You can "count your houses", just as you can "count your money".

    Let me reword the song, to help convert more people to Propertism.

    Sing a song of sixpence,
    A pocket full of rye ...

    The king was counting all his houses,
    Just like counting money ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    I can see that you have not seen "The Light" in Propertism.

    You still see "VALUE" = "CASH".

    I am now going to convert you, by telling you that "VALUE" = "PROPERTIES" !!!

    The problem why many people view cash, rather than properties, as "VALUE", is the fault of the song "Sing a Song of Sixpence".

    Sing a song of sixpence,
    A pocket full of rye ...

    The king was in his counting house,
    Counting out his money ...



    As a result, many people only see "CASH" as valuable, and it's only when houses are sold and "realised" into "CASH" which they then deposit into their bank, that they see "VALUE".

    These people look forward to viewing their internet bank statements, and feel very assured only when they can count the number of zeroes in their "net position" (which is the modern equivalent of the King counting his money).

    This is wrong. "HOUSES" is also "VALUE".

    You can "count your houses", just as you can "count your money".

    Let me reword the song, to help convert more people to Propertism.

    Sing a song of sixpence,
    A pocket full of rye ...

    The king was counting all his houses,
    Just like counting money ...
    What are you talking abt ? This is basic of modern economics of value of money.. Money as a medium of exchange. This is not barter trade. if value is only = "properties" , can you buy a packet of noodles with your it.

    "Moneytism" = Cash (in any form) = Medium of Exchange for anything including your house). If you cannot equate value in "money" sense it is worthless. If a painting is bought for a million $$, the owner expected it to redeemed and SELL for more than a million $$ at some point of time. If he lost it in a fire just as you lost your home in a fire, it is zero $$ money value.

    There is also a time dimension to it. Your assumption is a property as long as NOT sold will increase in Value (money sense). No one is disputing House = Value BUT a LH House value will diminish with time lease expired. Convert all your money value to properties and lock it for eternity !!! As long as it is never converted to "money" it is worthless !!! because your have no money to buy that packet of noodle.

    If you imagine your 1 million $$ LH property after 30 years (no enbloc), no one value it any more (money sense), you are forced to sell to the lowest willing buyer if you can find one. May be then you decide to donate it free to charity.



    " These people look forward to viewing their internet bank statements, and feel very assured only when they can count the number of zeroes in their "net position" (which is the modern equivalent of the King counting his money). " . So you are the rare species from MARS (certainly not earthling) who count houses and not the bank statement.

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    Quote Originally Posted by alamak
    If you imagine your 1 million $$ LH property after 30 years (no enbloc), no one value it any more (money sense), you are forced to sell to the lowest willing buyer if you can find one. May be then you decide to donate it free to charity.
    To test your hypothesis, all we need to do is conduct a simple experiment.

    Go to Marine Parade and ask Granny Yeo and Grandpa Sharma whether they are willing to donate their HDB flats to charity.

    If they say "YES!!! YES!!! Donate It!!! It's Worthless!!! HOORAY!!!" ... then it's really worthless.

    The Straits Times

    Scenic drive

    HDB flats with great views are in hot demand.

    Tay Suan Chiang

    Sat, Jun 23, 2007



    Madam Yeo Wee Geck on her 20th-storey Marine Parade unit. She can catch the sunrise as well as enjoy the sea view from her flat.

    Mr Chris Koh, director of Dennis Wee Properties, says prices for private properties have soared over the past year due to the influx of investment from foreigners and buyers' confidence in the Singapore economy.

    And that has also boosted the demand for HDB flats in good locations and on higher floors.

    He cites the example of a five-room HDB flat in Marine Parade that has unblocked views of the sea. He says that, three years ago, it would have fetched about $350,000.

    "A year ago, it could sell for $400,000. Today, buyers are willing to pay $500,000," he says.

    But even though their flat may now fetch a higher price, some home owners are unwilling to sell.

    Housewife Yeo Wee Geck, 85, is one. The grandmother of six lives with her only daughter and their maid in a five-room HDB flat in Marine Parade. She bought the 20th-storey unit in the early 1970s for $30,000.

    She gets to watch the sun rise from her flat, as well as enjoy views of East Coast Park and the sea. "It is so breezy here. I won't move out," she says.



    Block 29 Marine Crescent. RETIREE P.R. Sharma, 81, has a view from his 20th-storey flat that many Singaporeans would envy.

    His five-room HDB point-block flat overlooks East Coast Park and the city skyline in the distance. He can even see the sea from a side window and from the bedroom and living room.

    He gets to enjoy the sunrise from his flat, watch planes land and take off from nearby Changi airport and count the number of tankers dotting the sea off East Coast Park.

    He paid $35,500 for the flat in 1974, and says he was offered about $900,000 for it nearly 20 years ago. Property agents say the current selling rate for such a flat is $500,000.

    He adds that even if he was offered $1million today, he would not sell it. He gets about three flyers a day from agents looking for sellers but he throws them in the bin without even looking at them.

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    Maybe can equate property with gold since both cannot be used as currency to exchange for daily necessities but are regarded as commodities in the literal sense. Only difference is that property can be used to generate income (rental) whilst maintaining its full value but a piece of gold bar cannot do that.

    Quote Originally Posted by alamak
    What are you talking abt ? This is basic of modern economics of value of money.. Money as a medium of exchange. This is not barter trade. if value is only = "properties" , can you buy a packet of noodles with your it.

    "Moneytism" = Cash (in any form) = Medium of Exchange for anything including your house). If you cannot equate value in "money" sense it is worthless. If a painting is bought for a million $$, the owner expected it to redeemed and SELL for more than a million $$ at some point of time. If he lost it in a fire just as you lost your home in a fire, it is zero $$ money value.

    There is also a time dimension to it. Your assumption is a property as long as NOT sold will increase in Value (money sense). No one is disputing House = Value BUT a LH House value will diminish with time lease expired. Convert all your money value to properties and lock it for eternity !!! As long as it is never converted to "money" it is worthless !!! because your have no money to buy that packet of noodle.

    If you imagine your 1 million $$ LH property after 30 years (no enbloc), no one value it any more (money sense), you are forced to sell to the lowest willing buyer if you can find one. May be then you decide to donate it free to charity.



    " These people look forward to viewing their internet bank statements, and feel very assured only when they can count the number of zeroes in their "net position" (which is the modern equivalent of the King counting his money). " . So you are the rare species from MARS (certainly not earthling) who count houses and not the bank statement.

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    If your property is valued at $1mil and someone offers you $1.5mil for you to let it go of a property you just bought a month ago, you will say no? Some rich people buy properties not carrying much about market direction (up or down) as they are only concerned about living in the place.

    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    The moral of the story is to have faith in the Propertism religion.

    In Propertism, we believe that property prices will always go up in the long term, simply because cash will lose its value.

    If the market plunges, just close your eyes and pray to Propertism. Switch off your internet browser; don't read any property-related news; don't come to this forum.

    No matter what, don't sell!

    Such trying periods will sieve out the truely faithful Propertists from those whose faith is weak. Those who faith is weak will be punished. This year the punishment is swift and painful, but sometimes it can take 30 years.

    Remember, properties should only be bought. Not sold.

    If you sell to bargain hunters during the plunge (not the "bargain hunter" specifically in this forum), you must ask "Why do they want to buy it from you?"

    If they are looking towards future price gains from the purchase, then why shouldn't you be the one to benefit from such price gains, rather than the bargain hunters?

    Therefore, always remember. Properties should only be bought. Not sold.

    Unless, like another forumer HP65 once said, it is acquired by the Government (can't be helped) or en-bloced (then quickly buy a replacment property).

    Remember to always keep the faith.

    Our Religious Elder - Property_Owner - has shown his deep faith by holding 40+ properties. He said that if his brand of toothpaste makes it big in China, he will join the ranks of the billionaires. I hope that he will succeed so that he will show even deeper faith by holding 400+ or even 4000+ properties.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    If your property is valued at $1mil and someone offers you $1.5mil for you to let it go of a property you just bought a month ago, you will say no? Some rich people buy properties not carrying much about market direction (up or down) as they are only concerned about living in the place.
    That would be like an "en bloc" !!!



    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Therefore, always remember. Properties should only be bought. Not sold.

    Unless, like another forumer HP65 once said, it is acquired by the Government (can't be helped) or en-bloced (then quickly buy a replacment property).

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