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Thread: CITI on property 3rd Nov 2009

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    Default CITI on property 3rd Nov 2009

    S'pore Property - Cautious on developers, prefer REITs - Citi

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    Good analysis. The mass market was a star performer and outperform the prime districts in the past 2 years and still likely to outperform the mid or luxury segments. If you have excess funds to invest in property, shd seriously consider mass market condos - highest yield of 4.5% compared to prime districts of only 2.5% and has highest upside potential. Downside risk supported by HDB. The prime areas performance depends largely on whether mainland Chinese bite - too high a risk. Also, too many tiny units will bring down the prestige of an area.

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    interesting read - thanks!

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    Questionable analysis. If properties is to be avoided, we should avoid REITs even more. These middlemen take a huge cut of management fees and leave the risks to REITs holders. I will never invest in REITS! If anybody want to invest in properties and have the means to put down 20% downpayment, better invest directly (just like better invest directly in stocks rather than buying unit trusts!). Such recommendable is laughable, particularly those office and retail REITs are staring at dire situations with huge over-supply coming on (why single out residential properties when office and retail spaces over-supply are even much more worse?)

    Quote Originally Posted by ahlahdin
    S'pore Property - Cautious on developers, prefer REITs - Citi

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Questionable analysis. If properties is to be avoided, we should avoid REITs even more. These middlemen take a huge cut of management fees and leave the risks to REITs holders. I will never invest in REITS! If anybody want to invest in properties and have the means to put down 20% downpayment, better invest directly (just like better invest directly in stocks rather than buying unit trusts!). Such recommendable is laughable, particularly those office and retail REITs are staring at dire situations with huge over-supply coming on (why single out residential properties when office and retail spaces over-supply are even much more worse?)
    Maybe the reporting is sugguesting that property's price reached its peak and needs more time to cool off before entering.

    2 cents worth of thought.

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    ANALYSTS ARE ALWAYS BEHIND THE CURVE. THEY NEVER FORSAW THE CRASH IN 2008, THEY ALSO NEVER FORSAW THE PRICE BOOMING AGAIN IN 2009.

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    Read the news just released.
    ----------------------------------------------
    Government may sell 42 sites in first half of 2010
    Tags: Urban Redevelopment Authority
    Written by Bloomberg Friday, 06 November 2009 13:14

    Singapore will sell eight sites and offer a further 34 properties on a reserve list in the first half of 2010, the government said.

    The 42 sites include 24 residential properties and two mixed-use sites where private homes can be built, the Ministry of National Development said in a statement on the Urban Redevelopment Authorityís website today.
    National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said on Sept. 14 the government is reinstating its so-called confirmed list of land sales as part of measures to prevent excessive price swings in the property market. Home prices rose 15.8% in the third quarter, the most in 28 years.

    The government will also add two new hotel sites to its reserve list, which are properties that will only be offered for sale when a triggering bid is received, according to todayís statement. Itís also carrying forward other hotel, commercial and so-called white sites from its land sale program for the six months ending Dec 31.

    Singapore also plans to supply land and properties for commercial uses through its various government agencies, the ministry said. This will yield a gross floor area of about 43,000 square meters (462,848 square feet).



    ---------------
    Very much to my worry whether government acts will pull down the overall property price soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by orange
    ANALYSTS ARE ALWAYS BEHIND THE CURVE. THEY NEVER FORSAW THE CRASH IN 2008, THEY ALSO NEVER FORSAW THE PRICE BOOMING AGAIN IN 2009.
    If the "analysts" are so good, the crash wouldn't have happened.

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    Sometimes I think the SG govt is partly responsible for causing the roller coaster ride in SG property prices. Suddenly release so much land, then suddenly remove all the land sales. Such knee jerk policy can't be good for the overall property market. Even from an investor perspective, I would prefer other countries with lesser government intervention. Sg is only good for Indonesians to "park" their money. But with new banking secrecy scrutiny, it might not be that attractive to foreign investors anymore.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wild Falcon
    Sometimes I think the SG govt is partly responsible for causing the roller coaster ride in SG property prices. Suddenly release so much land, then suddenly remove all the land sales. Such knee jerk policy can't be good for the overall property market. Even from an investor perspective, I would prefer other countries with lesser government intervention. Sg is only good for Indonesians to "park" their money. But with new banking secrecy scrutiny, it might not be that attractive to foreign investors anymore.
    1. Sale of land cheap cheap does not necessarily translate to cheaper condos to the end consumer -- just fat bottomlines for developer.....

    2. It's the liquidity, stupid (not referring to you but - Ah Mah).....Currently, you need only to foot 20% via cash. Of the 20%, 5% is cold hard cash. Assuming a 1m apt, u only pay $50K cash; the remaining 15% via CPF.

    3. From #2, you just need to insist 20% in cold hard cash (no CPF). That means 200K in cold hard cash. That'll be sufficient to cool the market.

    4. Else, reduce loan amt to 60% - 70% (as done in HK)....

    5. Jeez....why we pay Minister and Admin Officers BIG BUCKS for what.... >.<!!!

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    If they do this, 2 things happen:
    1) Mass market condos drop like stone. HDB upgraders and young couples all get stoned. (Prime properties not so much affected as they are for the rich and CPF because of contribution cap is small sum anyway in comparison to price of property).
    2) Many current officers bearers will be voted out by the angry people from category (1).

    So you think anybody would do such sucidal thing to benefit just a some small number of people who aspired to own properties but either did not want to cough out the amount or don't have enough to afford but still want the 'high-life' or jealous that their peers already made it but they still haven't and want to suggest a big stone to buried them?

    Quote Originally Posted by southpark2000
    1. Sale of land cheap cheap does not necessarily translate to cheaper condos to the end consumer -- just fat bottomlines for developer.....

    2. It's the liquidity, stupid (not referring to you but - Ah Mah).....Currently, you need only to foot 20% via cash. Of the 20%, 5% is cold hard cash. Assuming a 1m apt, u only pay $50K cash; the remaining 15% via CPF.

    3. From #2, you just need to insist 20% in cold hard cash (no CPF). That means 200K in cold hard cash. That'll be sufficient to cool the market.

    4. Else, reduce loan amt to 60% - 70% (as done in HK)....

    5. Jeez....why we pay Minister and Admin Officers BIG BUCKS for what.... >.<!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    If they do this, 2 things happen:
    1) Mass market condos drop like stone. HDB upgraders and young couples all get stoned. (Prime properties not so much affected as they are for the rich and CPF because of contribution cap is small sum anyway in comparison to price of property).
    2) Many current officers bearers will be voted out by the angry people from category (1).

    So you think anybody would do such sucidal thing to benefit just a some small number of people who aspired to own properties but either did not want to cough out the amount or don't have enough to afford but still want the 'high-life' or jealous that their peers already made it but they still haven't and want to suggest a big stone to buried them?
    Most Impt point.. Stamp duties revenues are going to be cut down big time. Then who is going to answer to the board for the losses of income,from the stamp duties.

    Seriously i do not think anyone dare to come out of extreme measures,and put his head on the chopping board if the plan backfired on them.

    Do we think they really cared.? Just take their millions pay,and just pretend to come out with some measures of cooling.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jwong71
    Most Impt point.. Stamp duties revenues are going to be cut down big time. Then who is going to answer to the board for the losses of income,from the stamp duties.

    Seriously i do not think anyone dare to come out of extreme measures,and put his head on the chopping board if the plan backfired on them.

    Do we think they really cared.? Just take their millions pay,and just pretend to come out with some measures of cooling.
    the SG garment wont care to admit & they arent that diff from anyone else, of cos their interests are very closely aligned with corporate & biz interests

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    Quote Originally Posted by orange
    ANALYSTS ARE ALWAYS BEHIND THE CURVE. THEY NEVER FORSAW THE CRASH IN 2008, THEY ALSO NEVER FORSAW THE PRICE BOOMING AGAIN IN 2009.
    Analysts who are ahead of the curve are called "Tycoons".

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    If they do this, 2 things happen:
    1) Mass market condos drop like stone. HDB upgraders and young couples all get stoned. (Prime properties not so much affected as they are for the rich and CPF because of contribution cap is small sum anyway in comparison to price of property).
    2) Many current officers bearers will be voted out by the angry people from category (1).
    The government is overly affected by a very small vocal group of people who have neither the means nor intention to purchase a property.

    What the government should do is to call a referendum for everyone to vote whether they want property prices to rise or fall.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Analysts who are ahead of the curve are called "Tycoons".



    The government is overly affected by a very small vocal group of people who have neither the means nor intention to purchase a property.

    What the government should do is to call a referendum for everyone to vote whether they want property prices to rise or fall.
    If the govern call for the vote,for properties prices to rise or fall.

    We have the answer. or Only smarties have the answer. (*_*)

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