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Thread: Property Trend

  1. #1
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    降温措施效果日益显著 过去两周楼市淡静

    (2009-10-17)

    ● 吴慧敏
      房地产降温措施后的楼市进一步退烧,过去一两个星期登场的新房地产项目,销售反应都相对冷淡。

      近一两个星期来,卖得较好的相信是和美集团的旭姿轩(Trilight)。这个位于纽顿区的豪华共管公寓在上个星期五开始预售,每平方英尺平均售价约1650元,至今据说卖出了超过40个单位。

      和美执行董事翁仲华不久前曾告诉媒体说:“我们不能要求更多了,(我们的预售活动)是在降温措施后举行的。”

      他补充,旭姿轩并没有迷你单位,最小的是面积约1109平方英尺的两卧房式单位,售价在182万元以上。

      靠近芽笼的Suites @ Guillemard,虽然在本月2日推出时,火速卖出九成的单位,但是受访的市场人士大多认为,这只是一个例外,并不能代表整体楼市的情绪。

      一名房地产顾问公司的研究部主管说:“因为面积小,这些迷你单位的售价都较低,大多在40万元至60万元之间,很多人负担得起,所以卖得很快。但在其他项目,我们可以清楚看到,售价在120万元以上的单位,已经遇到相当大的销售阻力。”

      据了解,过去一两个星期登场的新项目,销售反应大多相对平静,没有再出现那种一个周末内就火速卖出百多个单位的场面。

      例如远东机构在本月初预售的经禧坡共管公寓Alba,在第一个星期卖出了12个单位,随后据说就没有什么进展。

      这个豪华共管公寓共有50个单位,远东机构在上个周末的预售活动中,只开放低层的18个单位供买家选购,平均售价从每平方英尺2400元起。这18个单位的面积介于1862至2250平方英尺,因此一个单位的售价动辄四五百万元。

    市面只剩高价楼
      SC全球最近也卖出了6个Seven Palms的共管公寓单位,成交价介于每平方英尺3100元至3400元,破了升涛湾共管公寓价格的新高。

      这些豪华共管公寓的单位价大多在900万元至1500万元之间,最大的一个顶层豪宅单位有8000平方英尺,价格据说介于2500万元至3000万元。

      一名房地产代理公司的负责人将楼市放缓,归咎于市面上的供应量只剩下这些单位价高的项目。“大多数价格较大众化的项目,能推出的都已经推出了,剩下的不是面积较大的单位,就是尺价本来就相当高的豪华项目,大多数人买不起。”

      一家房地产顾问公司的私宅部主管也说:“我负责的几个楼盘还是有动,不过最近几个周末来,每个周末只是卖出一两个单位,比起六七月时,肯定慢了很多。”

      他认为,私宅的销售速度放缓,不一定是因为政府在9月14日实施的降温措施,很可能也因为现在是学校考试期间,父母都无心看楼、买楼。

      楼市进一步冷却,发展商也纷纷将手头上的大项目延迟推出。

      市场人士认为,接下来推出的新项目,应该会以一些中小型项目为主,而且发展商应该只会通过预售的方式,只开放少量的单位来试探市场反应。如果市场气氛继续保持冷静,一些较大型的重头项目,很可能挪后到明年才登场。

      据了解,这个周末将登场的新项目,只有Heritage集团的里峇峇利共管公寓——Vivace @ Robertson Quay。这个999年地契共管公寓有85个单位,平均售价为每平方英尺1800元。

      下个周末,由许兄弟集团、喜敦控股、金成兴控股,以及联明集团联手发展的Lincoln Suites,也将举行预售活动。

  2. #2
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    You never learn from reporter, must highlight the important points. Hope I do a good job, first try.

    Quote Originally Posted by moneyspinner
    降温措施效果日益显著 过去两周楼市淡静

    (2009-10-17)

    ● 吴慧敏
      房地产降温措施后的楼市进一步退烧,过去一两个星期登场的新房地产项目,销售反应都相对冷淡

      近一两个星期来,卖得较好的相信是和美集团的旭姿轩(Trilight)。这个位于纽顿区的豪华共管公寓在上个星期五开始预售,每平方英尺平均售价约1650元,至今据说卖出了超过40个单位。

      和美执行董事翁仲华不久前曾告诉媒体说:“我们不能要求更多了,(我们的预售活动)是在降温措施后举行的。”

      他补充,旭姿轩并没有迷你单位,最小的是面积约1109平方英尺的两卧房式单位,售价在182万元以上。

      靠近芽笼的Suites @ Guillemard,虽然在本月2日推出时,火速卖出九成的单位,但是受访的市场人士大多认为,这只是一个例外,并不能代表整体楼市的情绪。

      一名房地产顾问公司的研究部主管说:“因为面积小,这些迷你单位的售价都较低,大多在40万元至60万元之间,很多人负担得起,所以卖得很快。但在其他项目,我们可以清楚看到,售价在120万元以上的单位,已经遇到相当大的销售阻力。”

      据了解,过去一两个星期登场的新项目,销售反应大多相对平静,没有再出现那种一个周末内就火速卖出百多个单位的场面。

      例如远东机构在本月初预售的经禧坡共管公寓Alba在第一个星期卖出了12个单位,随后据说就没有什么进展

      这个豪华共管公寓共有50个单位,远东机构在上个周末的预售活动中,只开放低层的18个单位供买家选购,平均售价从每平方英尺2400元起。这18个单位的面积介于1862至2250平方英尺,因此一个单位的售价动辄四五百万元。

    市面只剩高价楼
      SC全球最近也卖出了6个Seven Palms的共管公寓单位,成交价介于每平方英尺3100元至3400元,破了升涛湾共管公寓价格的新高。

      这些豪华共管公寓的单位价大多在900万元至1500万元之间,最大的一个顶层豪宅单位有8000平方英尺,价格据说介于2500万元至3000万元。

      一名房地产代理公司的负责人将楼市放缓,归咎于市面上的供应量只剩下这些单位价高的项目。“大多数价格较大众化的项目,能推出的都已经推出了,剩下的不是面积较大的单位,就是尺价本来就相当高的豪华项目,大多数人买不起。”

      一家房地产顾问公司的私宅部主管也说:“我负责的几个楼盘还是有动不过最近几个周末来,每个周末只是卖出一两个单位,比起六七月时,肯定慢了很多。”

      他认为,私宅的销售速度放缓,不一定是因为政府在9月14日实施的降温措施,很可能也因为现在是学校考试期间,父母都无心看楼、买楼。

      楼市进一步冷却,发展商也纷纷将手头上的大项目延迟推出

      市场人士认为,接下来推出的新项目,应该会以一些中小型项目为主,而且发展商应该只会通过预售的方式,只开放少量的单位来试探市场反应。如果市场气氛继续保持冷静,一些较大型的重头项目,很可能挪后到明年才登场。

      据了解,这个周末将登场的新项目,只有Heritage集团的里峇峇利共管公寓——Vivace @ Robertson Quay。这个999年地契共管公寓有85个单位,平均售价为每平方英尺1800元。

      下个周末,由许兄弟集团、喜敦控股、金成兴控股,以及联明集团联手发展的Lincoln Suites,也将举行预售活动。

  3. #3
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    i hardly think mkt cooling off is due to the so-called cooling measures..

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    what other reasons can you think of then?

    let me start it off, pent-up demand filled up. what else?


    Quote Originally Posted by august
    i hardly think mkt cooling off is due to the so-called cooling measures..

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    what other reasons can you think of then?

    let me start it off, pent-up demand filled up. what else?
    1. Prices has gone up.

    2 Unit sizes has gone down.

    3 New launches have bigger unit sizes. Hence more expensive in terms
    of absolute amount affecting affordability.

    4. Fear of MBT introducing more draconian measures

    5. Uncertainty of economic recovery.

    6. Rental hasn't improve.

    7. Banks may not willing to match valuation. Hence cannot get the loan
    to finance the purchase.

    8. Potential buyers wake up alredi. More cautious now.


    Anymore?

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    can't think of any offhand since you have said so many so i will just elaborate on your points LOL:

    1. Prices has gone up. <-- Breaking point for buyers already.

    2 Unit sizes has gone down. <-- Un-liveable/un-rentable

    3 New launches have bigger unit sizes. Hence more expensive in terms
    of absolute amount affecting affordability. <-- From developers stuck with 2007 boom time designs/failed launches. Relaunched/only had chance to launch now but don't really want to compromise psf too much.

    4. Fear of MBT introducing more draconian measures <-- Doesn't seem likely if sentiment continues to cool.

    5. Uncertainty of economic recovery. <-- Too many people obviously have thrown the double-dip recession scenario out of the window.

    6. Rental hasn't improve. <-- Just look at Pavillion 11. Dreamers for 3 bedrooms asking for 6.5k while desperados asking below 5k also cannot get tenants. LOL.

    7. Banks may not willing to match valuation. Hence cannot get the loan
    to finance the purchase. <--More applicable to secondary market right? New sales doesn't face this problem.

    8. Potential buyers wake up alredi. More cautious now. <-- This is really true. The people I have talked to seems to have seen buyers pull back in tandem. Good luck to speculators/flippers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    can't think of any offhand since you have said so many so i will just elaborate on your points LOL:

    1. Prices has gone up. <-- Breaking point for buyers already.

    2 Unit sizes has gone down. <-- Un-liveable/un-rentable

    3 New launches have bigger unit sizes. Hence more expensive in terms
    of absolute amount affecting affordability. <-- From developers stuck with 2007 boom time designs/failed launches. Relaunched/only had chance to launch now but don't really want to compromise psf too much.

    4. Fear of MBT introducing more draconian measures <-- Doesn't seem likely if sentiment continues to cool.

    5. Uncertainty of economic recovery. <-- Too many people obviously have thrown the double-dip recession scenario out of the window.

    6. Rental hasn't improve. <-- Just look at Pavillion 11. Dreamers for 3 bedrooms asking for 6.5k while desperados asking below 5k also cannot get tenants. LOL.

    7. Banks may not willing to match valuation. Hence cannot get the loan
    to finance the purchase. <--More applicable to secondary market right? New sales doesn't face this problem.

    8. Potential buyers wake up alredi. More cautious now. <-- This is really true. The people I have talked to seems to have seen buyers pull back in tandem. Good luck to speculators/flippers.
    But I think there is a wild card and that is the STI. If it continues to move northwards, the bullish trend of properties may continue - the return of asset inflation!

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    1. Prices has gone up.>> Resale still at ard 450k-600k, compared to new. The psf is still affordable,alot below compared to the new.

    2 Unit sizes has gone down.

    3 New launches have bigger unit sizes. Hence more expensive in terms
    of absolute amount affecting affordability.>> These biggers units are cater for foreign buyers/and rich,the herd have yet to come into market full force yet.

    4. Fear of MBT introducing more draconian measures.>> MBT saw effects for DPS,he wont do further to damper the recovery.

    5. Uncertainty of economic recovery.>> WE are out of the worst,isnt that good enuff.

    6. Rental hasn't improve.>> Suburban condos closed at higher rentals than before, only the high end condo rental are suffering.

    7. Banks may not willing to match valuation. Hence cannot get the loan
    to finance the purchase.>> Condo sellers seeing HDB buyers are willing to top 20-50k COV,naturally all will ask above bank indication too.

    8. Potential buyers wake up alredi. More cautious now.>> These flippers or speculator have ability to hold or rent at breakeven for future capital gains. After few rounds of successful flipping,their portfolio have increased. More bullets too.

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    1. We were discussing with reference to this article, ie NEW sales. Agree with you that resale is affordable as long as sellers don't keep upping their asks.

    3. Contrary to what others believe, THERE IS NO FOREIGN HERD. So many people think the IR will bring in the foreign herd, just as it did for Macau. We will find out in the next 2 years.

    4. Agree with you on this one.

    5. Agree that prices will not go back to the lows earlier this year but having gone up exponentially, i think there would be some consolidation.

    6. Agree with you on this one. which is also why there is no foreign herd coming to buy up prime. these are sophisticated investors. either they buy the super luxury for own stay or they buy prime at prices which will provide good yields. that leaves the non super luxury prime area vulnerable but that also caps the gains in non prime.

    7. That's the thing. Of course sellers would ask above valuation. question is, are buyers willing to buy above valuation and top up cash?

    8. Can't agree with you on this one. Many do not have the ability to hold. Neither have there been "many rounds of successful flipping" in 2009 as compared to 2007. Future rental vs interest rate and capital appreciation are still too hard to determine at this point in time, especially for these new launches which will only be completed in 2012 or 2013. Rental may be higher than now but so will interest rates.







    Quote Originally Posted by jwong71
    1. Prices has gone up.>> Resale still at ard 450k-600k, compared to new. The psf is still affordable,alot below compared to the new.

    2 Unit sizes has gone down.

    3 New launches have bigger unit sizes. Hence more expensive in terms
    of absolute amount affecting affordability.>> These biggers units are cater for foreign buyers/and rich,the herd have yet to come into market full force yet.

    4. Fear of MBT introducing more draconian measures.>> MBT saw effects for DPS,he wont do further to damper the recovery.

    5. Uncertainty of economic recovery.>> WE are out of the worst,isnt that good enuff.

    6. Rental hasn't improve.>> Suburban condos closed at higher rentals than before, only the high end condo rental are suffering.

    7. Banks may not willing to match valuation. Hence cannot get the loan
    to finance the purchase.>> Condo sellers seeing HDB buyers are willing to top 20-50k COV,naturally all will ask above bank indication too.

    8. Potential buyers wake up alredi. More cautious now.>> These flippers or speculator have ability to hold or rent at breakeven for future capital gains. After few rounds of successful flipping,their portfolio have increased. More bullets too.

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    [quote=moneyspinner]1. Prices has gone up.> So much so that most of the agents I spoke to are saying its a stalemate again and most of the properties that I view are still on the market for 2-3 months.

    2 Unit sizes has gone down.> Surely or else there's no way the properties developer are able to sell the projects. So the questions is "Is this the real demand we are talking about"

    3 New launches have bigger unit sizes. Hence more expensive in terms
    of absolute amount affecting affordability.> Just think of 2-3 years down the road when all this Mickey Mouse units are up, and everyone is looking for tenants all at the same time.(yes I can hear that there will be a lot of influx of foreigner......sure, but let HOPE)

    4. Fear of MBT introducing more draconian measures (Dun think its likely in the near term)

    5. Uncertainty of economic recovery.(Firmly in the double deep camp and stock market will be lower than March low, if possible look for the Sept article by Bob Janjuah (deep thoughts by Bob Janjuah))

    6. Rental hasn't improve. (no idea about that)

    7. Banks may not willing to match valuation. Hence cannot get the loan
    to finance the purchase. (Nothing will change till the double deep set in, but do remember that the recent ratings for all the banks just got a negative outlook due to lower loan reserves provision - housing loan??? )

    8. Potential buyers wake up alredi. More cautious now. (Refer to point one again......so many agent posting the same units for the last 3 months)

    (PS: Me looking at buying one so you can say I am naturally biased)

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    Quote Originally Posted by moneyspinner
    降温措施效果日益显著 过去两周楼市淡静

    (2009-10-17)

    ● 吴慧敏
    ..........

    ... 私宅的销售速度放缓,不一定是因为政府在9月14日实施的降温措施,很可能也因为现在是学校考试期间,父母都无心看楼、买楼 ...

    ...........
    Remind me of that cool, quiet but beautiful 2006 圣诞节.

    It looks like this year will be cool, quiet and beautiful too.
    Last edited by Reporter; 18-10-09 at 21:01.

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    [quote=Reporter][quote=moneyspinner]降温措施效果日益显著 过去两周楼市淡静

    (2009-10-17)

    ● 吴慧敏
    ..........

    ... 私宅的销售速度放缓,不一定是因为政府在9月14日实施的降温措施,很可能也因为现在是学校考试期间,父母都无心看楼、买楼 ...

    ...........
    Remind me of that cool, quiet but beautiful 2006 圣诞节.

    It looks like this year will be cool, quiet and beautiful too.
    Reminds me of me buying vista park,at dirt cheap 342k. When all went for holidays in Q4. Until they are back from vacations, and offered the agent to me the OTP at 60k more.
    Offering at 400k.
    This is the best time to buy,when potential buyers are all away on vacation. There's no competition,no prices hike to outbid each other. etc..
    Last edited by jwong71; 18-10-09 at 21:08.

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    Clap Clap...........its amazing isn't it.
    So many different (extreme contrast) views on one development (quietening down of the market)

    Good week ahead all

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    well, we are of the view that its Q4 2007 and they are of the view that its Q4 2006, so next year will be an interesting year. Actually, I feel that they are right about the timing but not the price. I can see property prices remaining firm for H1 2010 (just like H1 2007) but can't agree that prices will see the same kind of accelerated spike. Then the real test of actual completions will come in from 2011 onwards.

    Quote Originally Posted by kali-yuga
    Clap Clap...........its amazing isn't it.
    So many different (extreme contrast) views on one development (quietening down of the market)

    Good week ahead all

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    well, we are of the view that its Q4 2007 and they are of the view that its Q4 2006, so next year will be an interesting year. Actually, I feel that they are right about the timing but not the price. I can see property prices remaining firm for H1 2010 (just like H1 2007) but can't agree that prices will see the same kind of accelerated spike. Then the real test of actual completions will come in from 2011 onwards.
    Err ... if you believe in Q4 2007, maybe you shouldn't mention feeling "they are right with Q4 2006"? Anyhow, perhaps everyone is wrong? There may be no Q4 2006 nor Q4 2007?

    While I firmly believe this is Q4 2006, I also recognise the fact that nobody knows.

    Actually, I want to be more specific. Not that I dislike OCR, but for me, the Q4 2006 is only applicable to CCR and some of RCR due to Asset Inflation or Hyperinflaction. (The "hot money" seems to be interested in assets that are more prime. You may reference those cities that are experiencing it now.) I believe most of OCR will still inch up a little (if it has not done so in 2009) due to CCR movement, HDB flats' support and recovering economy.

    Please note that the above are my personal view.

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    of course, we are just giving our personal views here to discuss. Anyway, what I meant was I expect prices to remain firm (just like Q4 2006 through H1 2007) but not shoot up to the same extent. However, I expect new sales volume to be low (just like Q4 2007 through H1 2008). So I guess I am expecting neither scenario or a combination of the 2 afterall hehehe.



    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Err ... if you believe in Q4 2007, maybe you shouldn't mention feeling "they are right with Q4 2006"? Anyhow, perhaps everyone is wrong? There may be no Q4 2006 nor Q4 2007?

    While I firmly believe this is Q4 2006, I also recognise the fact that nobody knows.

    Actually, I want to be more specific. Not that I dislike OCR, but for me, the Q4 2006 is only applicable to CCR and some of RCR due to Asset Inflation or Hyperinflaction. (The "hot money" seems to be interested in assets that are more prime. You may reference those cities that are experiencing it now.) I believe most of OCR will still inch up a little (if it has not done so in 2009) due to CCR movement, HDB flats' support and recovering economy.

    Please note that the above are my personal view.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kali-yuga
    Clap Clap...........its amazing isn't it.
    So many different (extreme contrast) views on one development (quietening down of the market)

    Good week ahead all
    If there is another dip,or so called w recovery. We shall see of more hdb upgraders,moving over to condos once the gap is little and manageable.
    Repeat history of mass/Mid market condos in demand.

    Mass/Mid market condos which are reachable to the HDB upgraders,are still in demand. Therefore it will start to push up the demand and prices once again by them.

    wad kinda of % in the correction for the mass/ Mid/ High condo you be looking at??

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    Quote Originally Posted by moneyspinner
    ....................

    5. Uncertainty of economic recovery.

    ....................
    Maybe the economy recovery is more certain than you thought?


    Quote Originally Posted by Today

    Chinese economy grows more than 7% in first 9 months
    Today
    Beijing, China
    Tuesday, 20 October 2009, 5:55 am

    China's economy expanded more than 7% in the first 9 months of the year and will certainly surpass the year's growth target of 8%, a top economic official said yesterday.

    China is due to release official third quarter economic data on Thursday but, in a briefing, Mr Xiong Bilin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, told reporters yesterday the growth rate for January to September would be a bit above 7%.

    "Achieving a growth rate of 8% for the year is basically no problem,'' he said.

    Statistics for last month showed improving trade, housing sales, manufacturing and car sales. The data suggest resilience in retail sales and industrial production are helping offset the blow from falling exports.

    Separately, Mr Yu Bin, a senior researcher with the Development Research Centre, told a conference at the weekend that economic growth was forecast to exceed 9% in the second half of the year, financial magazine Caijing reported yesterday. The upbeat comments helped lift China's Shanghai Composite Index yesterday to a 1-month high of 3,038.27, up 61.64 points or 2.1%.

    Meanwhile, informal trade talks between Taiwan and China scheduled for this week have been delayed as Taipei officials will be busy answering Budget questions in Parliament. The negotiations are now likely to be put off until the end of the month, said Mr Huang Chih-peng, director of Taiwan's Bureau of Foreign Trade and the head of the island's delegation.

    Local media have reported the talks are expected to set a timetable for formal discussions. Taiwan's administration hopes the negotiations will lead to a trade agreement, which it says could lift the island's economic growth by 1% point.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bloomberg

    Economy is on the mend
    Bloomberg
    Tokyo, Japan
    Monday, 19 October 2009

    Japan's economy - the world's second largest - is improving in all of the country's 9 areas as the nation emerged from its worst post-war recession, according to its central bank.

    "Signs of picking up had appeared throughout the economy, although regional differences remained," the Bank of Japan said in its quarterly regional report released yesterday.

    The report came after policy makers last week raised their evaluation of the economy for a second month, saying companies cut spending at a slower pace and their access to private funding improved.

    Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said yesterday the economy had started to "pick up", but added that domestic demand would remain "weak" and the policy board was concerned about risks to growth and prices.

    Some central bank board members said last month that the need for their emergency credit-easing measures was decreasing, according to minutes of the Sept 16 and 17 policy meeting also released yesterday.

    The remarks reinforced economists' expectations that the bank will let its programmes of purchasing corporate debt from lenders expire at the end of the year.

    Since lowering the benchmark interest rate to 0.1% in December, the central bank started buying commercial paper and corporate bonds from lenders and offering them unlimited loans backed by collateral to channel funds to companies. In July, the policy board extended the 3 plans to Dec 31.

    Mr Shirakawa said the board would persist with its policy of holding rates "very low" and maintaining a "very accommodative" stance.

  19. #19
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    楼市涨势趋向温和
    (2009-10-24)
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    孙燕清 撰文/苗丰恬 整理
      房地产市场人士认为,全球经济最糟的时候已过去了。从市场情绪的角度来看,这种乐观看法已成为一个明显的转折点。
      我国私宅销售量和价格近期节节上升,今年第三季起出现了这轮经济危机以来的第一波涨幅。尽管如此,却还是有不少人觉得复苏势头略嫌疲软。
      我国楼市的这轮涨潮是否能继续下去?未来几个月的走势又如何?
      目前,市场“买气”多集中在大众私宅和组屋,尤其是在投资额及风险较低的小型单位上。过去三个季度来,私宅销量和价格皆呈上扬趋势。若拿2009年和2008年相比,私宅销量上涨了超过200%,但价格在同期却仅升15.4%(虽然部分项目已经回涨到2007年水平)。这个现象显示了一点,尽管房价在经济危机中的跌幅不如成交量来的厉害,但价格在未来几个月的涨势可能也较温和。
      其中,继今年5月至8月间本地房价快速上扬之后,我们从市场中观察到一些价格阻力。
      另一方面,过去10年私宅销量平均为每年7800个单位,但今年首三季已突破1万1700个,比平均数据高出50%,反映出目前私宅销量的骤增应该不会持续。尽管经济出现大波动,我们预计大众私宅销量和价格将逐渐回稳、并呈缓慢的上升趋势,未来一年内应该会维持健康的水平。

    展望未来,楼市下一股趋势会是什么? 大型大众私宅和高档豪华公寓估计将稳定回升


    某一个特定市场层面出现的旺热买气,并不代表整个楼市已回弹。截至目前为止,以大众私宅市场的复苏速度最快、价格回弹的力度也最强。这个现象同时也反映出其他市场层面未来几个月内可能会出现不错的投资机会,大型大众私宅和高档豪华公寓市场估计将稳定回升。
      展望2010年,多数经济师预测全球经济复苏将是正面且缓慢的。我国经济第三季环比增长14.9%,贸工部把全年增长预测从原本的4%至6%萎缩下调到2.5%至2%萎缩。在一片期望经济在未来几个月复苏的谨慎乐观情绪中,一些偏好豪华及较大空间项目的买家会肯承担更高的风险、提高投资额。这么一来,我们可能会看到市场对高档及豪华项目的需求进一步增长。
      另一方面,买家准备好接受更大额项目,也可从房价的攀升上看出。大众私宅价格过去几个月来增长显著,第三季取得了15.4%双位数涨幅。其中,介于每平方英尺750元至1000元间的私宅项目,获得了良好的市场扶持。事实上,今年第二季和第三季卖出的9166个私宅单位中,有超过三分之一是处于此价位的高端。
      这对高档私宅投资者和买家来说,是一项好消息。大众私宅高端项目最近的健康价位水平,为高档和豪华私宅的下一波涨幅提供了良好的平台。一般来说,尽管高档私宅第三季增长良好,但与上一个高峰水平的2050元相比仍然相差了28%,反映出增长空间的存在(如图表所示)。同时,近一轮涨势的方向是由下而上,与2007年房市高峰期从高档私宅市场开始从上而下涨潮恰恰相反,也可为高档私宅的发展提供更高、更长远的途径
      另一方面,近期一些高端和大型项目获得了市场不错的反应,也反映出买家对高档项目的兴趣重燃。新项目如和美投资(Ho Bee)的Trilight、SC环球(SC Global)的Seven Palms和远东机构的Cyan等高档项目的推出,也足见发展商的态度积极。今年首三季共卖出了2676个单位,这个数据尽管仍然低于2007年高峰的4792个,但比去年的968个单位多出了足足1.8倍。另一方面,大型项目如嘉德置地(Capitaland)的Interlace和富怡资产管理(Ferrell Asset Management)的富怡首府(Ferrell Residences)也获得平稳的成交量。  
      这轮楼市回升的背后,我们也看到了其他支撑因素的存在。其中,本地稳健上升的外国人和永久居民(PR)的人成为了原因之一。另一方面,本地房市的蓬勃和其投资回报,在过去两年也吸引了不少海外买家进场,成为房地产投资热点。随着综合度假胜地(IR)的开幕,我国未来的住房需求势必大涨。而本地人口增长对未来的住房需求也起着很直接的影响,这对无法购买新组屋、须转而朝组屋转售或私宅市场寻找的目标。根据今年6月份的数据,本地永久居民人口同比增加了高达10.4%、报53万人。
    高资产人士增加
    楼市蓬勃另一原因   最后,全球高资产人士增加也成为楼市蓬勃的另一原因。美林(Merill Lynch)全球财富管理与凯捷(Capgemini)顾问发表的最新亚太区财富报告显示,全球富豪的身家在经济复苏后很可能水涨船高,到了2013年估计将达48.5万亿美元,年均复合增长8.1%。在这一波涨潮中,亚太区则很可能超越北美,成为富豪身家最高、最有钱的地区。届时,新加坡身为本区域富豪的储财安全地,这股趋势对我国楼市有利而无害

    (作者是第一太平戴维斯(Savills)

    研究部高级经理孙燕清)

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