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Thread: Sales of uncompleted private homes fall 36.6% in September

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    Default Sales of uncompleted private homes fall 36.6% in September

    Oct 15, 2009

    Private home sales slow
    By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent
    Property buyers at the preview of the Hundred Trees condominium project located at West Coast Drive. -- ST PHOTO: SHAHRIYA YAHAYA

    DEVELOPERS sold 1,143 units of new, private homes in September, down from 1,804 units in August, after the Government introduced measures to prevent excessive price swings in the property market.
    They launched 1,413 units in September, down from 1,613 units in August, according to data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority on Thursday.

    Hundred Trees in West Coast Drive was the top seller, with buyers picking 327 units at a median price of $941 per sq ft. Another project that sold well was The Interlace in Alexandra Road. It sold 243 units at a median price of $1,047 psf.

    Despite the continued drop in monthly sales, the units sold in September were nearly three times the 376 units sold in the same month a year ago.
    Singapore's home sales climbed to more than 13,000 in the first three quarters of the year, compared with the 4,300 sold for the whole of 2008, calculations by Bloomberg show. The increase in demand has already lifted home prices, with an index of private residential property prices surging 16 per cent last quarter.
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    part reason is due to seventh month also, which ended in Sep.

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    watch the oct number then. I got a feeling it will be below 1000.

    Quote Originally Posted by xtink
    part reason is due to seventh month also, which ended in Sep.

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    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...011536/1/.html

    Sales of uncompleted private homes fall 36.6% in September

    By Yasmine Yahya & Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 15 October 2009 1652 hrs


    SINGAPORE : Sales of uncompleted private homes took another dip in September, the second month of decline, after hitting a record high in July where 2,772 units were sold.

    A total of 1,143 units were sold last month, a 36.6 per cent drop from August. Market watchers said this level of activity is more sustainable going forward.

    5,719 units were sold in the third quarter alone, more than the whole of last year. But activity has tapered off since, and observers said it is unlikely to test the record sales of 2,772 units in July going forward.

    Analysts said that is partly due to the government's anti-speculative measures that have kept speculators away.

    At the same time, some developers have also delayed new launches during the Lunar seventh month period, which is a traditionally a low season for the property market.

    Market watchers said the pent-up demand seen in the last two quarters has fizzled out. And for the last three months of the year, they expect private home sales to range between 800 and 1,000 units a month.

    The development that sold the highest number of units last month was Hundred Trees at West Coast. 327 out of the 350 units launched in the project were sold at a median price of S$941 per square foot.

    The Interlace at Alexandra Road also saw strong sales, with 243 units sold at a median price of S$1,047 per square foot.

    Only 99 high-end homes, priced above S$1,500 per square foot, were sold in September. The number was a sharp drop from the 421 that were sold in August.

    Analysts said properties selling at S$1,000 per square foot and under may do better for now, but next year could see more upmarket launches.

    Donald Han, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield, said: "We are going to see us being placed as a cheaper alternative for some (investors) to put their investment dollar into Singapore.

    "With the opening of the integrated resort, with more high net worth investors coming to Singapore, we think the higher mid-end, right up to the luxury segment of the residential market, would probably see better reception."

    Observers expect home prices to rise about 5 per cent in the fourth quarter, after a strong run-up in the last three months. Home prices in the third quarter rose sharply, by 15.9 per cent.

    "Now with the brightening economic outlook, buying momentum could still be sustained as buyers are now more confident of their ability to service their housing loan in light of greater job security," said Grace Ng, deputy MD of Agency & Business Services, Colliers International

    Nearly 13,000 new homes were sold in the past 9 months. And experts project total sales volume for the year to exceed the record 14,811 transacted in 2007. - CNA /ls

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    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...011536/1/.html

    Sales of uncompleted private homes fall 36.6% in September

    By Yasmine Yahya & Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 15 October 2009 1652 hrs


    SINGAPORE : Sales of uncompleted private homes took another dip in September, the second month of decline, after hitting a record high in July where 2,772 units were sold.

    A total of 1,143 units were sold last month, a 36.6 per cent drop from August. Market watchers said this level of activity is more sustainable going forward.

    5,719 units were sold in the third quarter alone, more than the whole of last year. But activity has tapered off since, and observers said it is unlikely to test the record sales of 2,772 units in July going forward.

    Analysts said that is partly due to the government's anti-speculative measures that have kept speculators away.

    At the same time, some developers have also delayed new launches during the Lunar seventh month period, which is a traditionally a low season for the property market.

    Market watchers said the pent-up demand seen in the last two quarters has fizzled out. And for the last three months of the year, they expect private home sales to range between 800 and 1,000 units a month.

    The development that sold the highest number of units last month was Hundred Trees at West Coast. 327 out of the 350 units launched in the project were sold at a median price of S$941 per square foot.

    The Interlace at Alexandra Road also saw strong sales, with 243 units sold at a median price of S$1,047 per square foot.

    Only 99 high-end homes, priced above S$1,500 per square foot, were sold in September. The number was a sharp drop from the 421 that were sold in August.

    Analysts said properties selling at S$1,000 per square foot and under may do better for now, but next year could see more upmarket launches.

    Donald Han, managing director of Cushman & Wakefield, said: "We are going to see us being placed as a cheaper alternative for some (investors) to put their investment dollar into Singapore.

    "With the opening of the integrated resort, with more high net worth investors coming to Singapore, we think the higher mid-end, right up to the luxury segment of the residential market, would probably see better reception."

    Observers expect home prices to rise about 5 per cent in the fourth quarter, after a strong run-up in the last three months. Home prices in the third quarter rose sharply, by 15.9 per cent.

    "Now with the brightening economic outlook, buying momentum could still be sustained as buyers are now more confident of their ability to service their housing loan in light of greater job security," said Grace Ng, deputy MD of Agency & Business Services, Colliers International

    Nearly 13,000 new homes were sold in the past 9 months. And experts project total sales volume for the year to exceed the record 14,811 transacted in 2007. - CNA /ls
    If it continues to drop, so price may also drop. Therefore, it is good news for those who is planning to buy soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    watch the oct number then. I got a feeling it will be below 1000.
    Like that then throw in a zero to buy 4 D lor (as discussed) ....

    Actually, if developers follow tradition & don't have many projects being launched in the last Qtr, then no surprise bah ... very good liao, for 9 mths to-date this kinda results. Considering half of Sept was also lunar month (as in the case with half in Aug), it's really not bad.

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    I agree....but, it WAS not bad. Going forward, its tough. Anyway, new projects agents ya-ya for so long already. Time to let them eat grass.

    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    Like that then throw in a zero to buy 4 D lor (as discussed) ....

    Actually, if developers follow tradition & don't have many projects being launched in the last Qtr, then no surprise bah ... very good liao, for 9 mths to-date this kinda results. Considering half of Sept was also lunar month (as in the case with half in Aug), it's really not bad.

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    Hmm ... don't know leh .. yesterday some analyst got interviewed & said that next yr more of high-end launches wor .. like tt those new-project-agents can't ya-ya if they need to serve the relatively well-heeled buyers lor. YESH, most of these agents v ya-ya for the mass ...

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    i don't see the high-end launches flying off the shelves. So these agents got to beg, kneel, kow-tow, whatever it takes. But if they manage to secure the deal, it will be a lot more lucrative. Part of the job scope.

    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    Hmm ... don't know leh .. yesterday some analyst got interviewed & said that next yr more of high-end launches wor .. like tt those new-project-agents can't ya-ya if they need to serve the relatively well-heeled buyers lor. YESH, most of these agents v ya-ya for the mass ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    watch the oct number then. I got a feeling it will be below 1000.
    You may be very right!
    I believe sales volume will be lower in Q4.

    Déjà vu right?

    It seems like you still remember those quieter times back in Q4 2006 after a healthier Q3.
    History often repeats itself.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Perhaps you have forgotten about that beautiful but quietly-cold Christmas back in 2006.

    Remember that cold turkey you shallowed?

    After that you just felt warmer and warmer by the day?

    ... and you reached clima.. in July 2007.


    No, you will see a lot of our cousins from above (i.e. the North) snatching the beloved toys on our hands from middle next year. Don't cry over that toy please!

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    Err...why can't this be deja vu Q4 2007? It will be a disaster if history repeats itself that way.

    The 9 months so far has been more similar to 2007 than 2006. Q1, Q2 and Q3 super sales in 2009 is the same as the same 3 quarters in 2007. Then the market runs into indigestion. In 2006, market was quiet in Q1 and Q2, Q3 and Q4 started to pick up.



    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    You may be very right!
    I believe sales volume will be lower in Q4.

    Déjà vu right?

    It seems like you still remember those quieter times back in Q4 2006 after a healthier Q3.
    History often repeats itself.

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    Or perhaps new history in the making leh ... nobody can be hundred percent sure.

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    that too of course. I guess having learnt from past lessons. everyone improves so things are probably not as bad as the 07 to 08 period but not fantastic like some 'analysts' are trying to make it out to be. Just look at the number of posts on this forum. If not for Reporter supporting, the traffic could have died down to very low levels.

    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    Or perhaps new history in the making leh ... nobody can be hundred percent sure.

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    http://www.straitstimes.com/Prime%2B...ry_442790.html

    October 16, 2009 Friday

    September new home sales drop

    Still, full-year sales are expected to top 2007's 14,811 units

    By Joyce Teo


    THE recent buying euphoria in the new homes market appears to have cooled further, with developers selling 1,143 units last month, well down on the 1,804 units sold in August.

    Property consultants attribute the fall to seasonal factors and price resistance, as well as government measures introduced last month to calm the fast-rising market.

    A slowdown had been expected, as the fast and furious pace of sales - which hit a whopping 2,772 units in July alone - was not sustainable, they said.

    Still, the weaker September sales figure is about treble the number of units sold in the same month a year earlier. Sales in the first nine months of the year are now 12,969 units.

    Experts expect full-year sales to exceed the 2007 new home sales record of 14,811 units.

    Developers launched 1,413 units in September, down from 1,613 units in August, according to data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA).

    This puts the take-up rate at 81per cent, the lowest level since February this year, as buyers become more selective even as they continue to favour small units in suburban projects, said DTZ head of South-east Asia research Chua Chor Hoon.

    Most of the sales in September were suburban homes, followed by those in city-fringe locations.

    Sales from two major launches accounted for about half of September's sales. Hundred Trees in West Coast Drive sold 327 units, while The Interlace in Alexandra Road sold 243 units.

    Sales of city-centre units saw a steep fall in September to just 152 units, down from the 551 units in August and lower than the 294 units sold in September 2007, when the market was hot.

    The August sales figure was revised upwards from 1,699 units, largely due to the inclusion of the sale of 99 units at The Trizon at a median price of $1,367 psf. Previously, the city-centre project had recorded no sales in August.

    The highest-priced unit sold last month was at Seven Palms at Sentosa Cove, at $3,353 psf. By comparison, two units fetched over $4,000 psf in August.

    Mass market prices have inched up in recent months to average levels of $750 psf to $1,000 psf, from $500 psf to $750 psf previously, said Savills.

    Last month's sales may have fallen from recent months but they still beat the number sold in the market run-up in September2007 by an 'alarming 122per cent', said Jones Lang LaSalle's head of research South-east Asia, Dr Chua Yang Liang.

    'This is an area of concern considering that we are just slowly emerging out of a recession and the unemployment outlook remains fragile.'

    Dr Chua said the rate of change of the URA price index is closely correlated with transaction volume, albeit lagging by about two to three months.

    That means the fourth-quarter price index could rise 5 per cent to 8per cent, from the third quarter estimate of 15.9per cent, he said.

    Although the index is a lagging indicator, if its rate of property price increase is not matched by adequate job creation and income growth, further government policies could be introduced to cool the property market, he added.

    Experts expect fourth quarter sales to moderate further to below 1,000 units a month.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    Err...why can't this be deja vu Q4 2007? It will be a disaster if history repeats itself that way.

    The 9 months so far has been more similar to 2007 than 2006. Q1, Q2 and Q3 super sales in 2009 is the same as the same 3 quarters in 2007. Then the market runs into indigestion. In 2006, market was quiet in Q1 and Q2, Q3 and Q4 started to pick up.
    Err ... repeat of 2007?

    Did you see new psf record?
    I don't. All those $5,xxx psf records set in 2007 are still standing.

    Did you see a lot of foreigners buying (1) after reaping profits from sale in Hong Kong, for example, or (2) to hedge against the high price in Hong Kong, for example?
    I don't. The bull has just started in Hong Kong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    that too of course. I guess having learnt from past lessons. everyone improves so things are probably not as bad as the 07 to 08 period but not fantastic like some 'analysts' are trying to make it out to be. Just look at the number of posts on this forum. If not for Reporter supporting, the traffic could have died down to very low levels.
    Very low level of posting now! Exactly and well said!

    That's why déjà vu 2006!

    I believe the posting volume will be shooting up after Christmas and will reach the 2007 level in 2010.

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    you see a lot of new psf records in OCR don't you?

    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Err ... repeat of 2007?

    Did you see new psf record?
    I don't. All those $5,xxx psf records set in 2007 are still standing.

    Did you see a lot of foreigners buying (1) after reaping profits from sale in Hong Kong, for example, or (2) to hedge against the high price in Hong Kong, for example?
    I don't. The bull has just started in Hong Kong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Very low level of posting now! Exactly and well said!

    That's why déjà vu 2006!

    I believe the posting volume will be shooting up after Christmas and will reach the 2007 level in 2010.
    Of course! Another 30% upside from hereon by end 2010! Inflation will do the job for you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sabian
    Of course! Another 30% upside from hereon by end 2010! Inflation will do the job for you.
    Err ... your number is bigger by 11%.

    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...47496,00.html?

    Published August 26, 2009

    Prime home prices may rise 18% by end 2010: UBS

    The analysts say mass launch prices have hit 2007 peak, and may stagnate

    By UMA SHANKARI


    LAUNCH prices for new private homes rose 10 per cent and 18 per cent in prime and mass districts respectively in the first half of 2009, according to UBS Investment Research.

    On the back of this, analysts Regina Lim and Michael Lim now expect prime prices to rise 18 per cent from here to 2007 peak by end 2010, as interest continues to improve and foreigners start to buy. However, luxury prices are not expected to reach the $4,000-$4,500 per square foot (psf) levels seen in 2007. By contrast, mass launch prices have reached the 2007 peak due to fervent buying by locals and prices could stagnate at current levels, the analysts said in an Aug 24 report: 'For mass market launch prices, we believe they could stagnate at current levels after rising around 20 per cent in 2009.'

    UBS' research also showed that most of the demand for private homes this year came from local buyers. In the first seven months of 2009, developers sold over 10,100 units, mostly in mass market condominiums where buyers were largely Singaporeans.

    'In H1 2009, we saw a sharp increase in buyers who currently live in public housing (HDB),' said the report. For new sales, 54 per cent of buyers had HDB addresses, compared with 24 per cent in 2007. For resale transactions, 44 per cent of buyers had HDB addresses, compared with 22 per cent in 2007. In addition, a large portion of non-Singaporean buyers were permanent residents.

    Looking ahead, UBS believes that demand for prime residential units will grow as interest grows among foreigners. 'We saw signs of improvement for prime units in Q2 2009,' said the report. 'In Q2 2009, resale transactions in the prime districts increased more than five times to 230 a month, from 42 a month in Q1. Prime resale transactions now make up 24 per cent of all resale transactions, compared with 16 per cent in Q1 2009 and 30 per cent in Q1 2007.'

    The price growth that UBS expects will be supported by low completions supply, the analysts said. UBS expects the total number of homes to be completed from 2009 to 2015 to be around 16,000 per year - similar to the levels in 2000-2008.

    'We believe this is not excessive, if we expect population growth to be 2.4 per cent, which translates to around 116,000 persons per annum,' said the report. 'We believe that supply is reasonable and we expect rental growth in 2009-2015 to be at least 5 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) as completions are similar to 2000-2008, yet population growth is expected to be 15-20 per cent higher.'

    However, other analysts here are less bullish. RBS Singapore analyst Fera Wirawan said recently that residential property prices could fall 10 per cent to 20 per cent over the next 12 months on back of anti-speculative measures, falling rental yields and increasing supply.

    Based on her analysis, prices of mass-market homes are now at peak 2007 levels, while prices of mid-tier and high-end homes are just 8 per cent and 22 per cent off their peaks respectively.

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    Why not? 11% more only...what recession?

    How can only mass mkt hit peak levels??? High end also must hit mah...don't tell the mass mkt buyers are smarter than the high end buyers...

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    Quote Originally Posted by sabian
    Why not? 11% more only...what recession?

    How can only mass mkt hit peak levels??? High end also must hit mah...don't tell the mass mkt buyers are smarter than the high end buyers...
    It is an affordability issue. Prime properties need the support of foreign funds, which haven't come back on such a scale like 2007. The jury's out there on how the macroeconomic environment will turn out in 2010.

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    Quote Originally Posted by new2mondrian
    It is an affordability issue. Prime properties need the support of foreign funds, which haven't come back on such a scale like 2007. The jury's out there on how the macroeconomic environment will turn out in 2010.
    Agree, it is all about the affordability to our households.

    Quote Originally Posted by The Business Times

    Stable household wealth behind property surge
    Consumer spending could also recover more quickly than in previous recessions
    Conrad Tan
    The Business Times
    Tuesday, 25 August 2009

    The net worth of Singapore households has fallen only slightly from its peak last year and is still much higher than it was at the start of this decade, according to an analysis by a senior Citigroup economist.

    This resilience in household wealth is one likely reason for property sales volumes and prices having rebounded strongly in recent weeks, and could mean that consumer spending here recovers more quickly than in previous recessions.

    'The strength of the household balance sheet probably explains to some extent the rally in asset prices, in particular housing, and may set the stage for a swifter recovery in domestic spending,' Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng said in a report yesterday.

    Mr Kit estimates that Singapore households had a combined net worth of just over $900 billion as at the second quarter of this year - down only 5-6% from the peak in 2008 and 70% higher than in 2000, despite the slump in asset prices due to the financial crisis.

    That net worth measures the value of cash, shares, property and other assets owned by households, less any liabilities such as mortgages and personal loans.

    Mr Kit used data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore's latest Financial Stability Review and past studies by the Singapore Department of Statistics that show changes in households' balance sheets until the third quarter of 2008. He then estimated more recent values for households' assets and debts.

    While household debt had risen by 30% from 2000 to the second quarter of this year, the value of household assets rose at double that pace, or some 60%, over the same period, Mr Kit's estimates show.

    'Even accounting for private home price declines in 2008 and the first quarter of this year, with HDB prices holding up and cash positions building, total household assets are up 60% from 2000, and only 4.3% down from the peak in Q2 2008,' he said.

    Financial asset holdings grew especially quickly - holdings of cash and deposits rose almost 70% from 2000 to the peak in the third quarter of 2007, while holdings of shares and securities rose almost 150%.

    Given the recent rally in equity prices and the continued accumulation of cash, Mr Kit estimates that total financial assets held by Singapore households have fallen only 3.2% from the Q3 2007 peak.

    While the dollar value of household debt has risen in recent years, the even more rapid increase in assets means that debt is now only 16-17% of total assets, compared with 20-21% in 2000-01. Households' cash holdings alone exceed total household liabilities in aggregate, although most of that cash is likely to be concentrated in higher-income households.

    The lower proportion of household indebtedness compared to 2000-01 'can probably be explained by wage growth - and hence, financial assets - outpacing housing price growth in nine out of the past 11 years, which has probably improved home affordability as well', Mr Kit said.

    And while household debt is likely to increase further in the coming months due to recent new home purchases and the completion of homes bought under the deferred payment scheme, 'households seem unlikely to reach previous levels of leverage any time soon', he added.

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