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Thread: HK luxury home sales soar on mainland deals

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    Default HK luxury home sales soar on mainland deals

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...45540,00.html?

    Published October 7, 2009

    HK luxury home sales soar on mainland deals

    Prices jump 28% in first nine months as low mortgage costs fuel buying: Colliers


    (HONG KONG) Hong Kong's luxury home sales almost tripled in September from a month earlier, as mainland Chinese residents flocked to buy flats in the city.

    The registered sales of residential units worth more than HK$10 million (S$1.8 million) rose to 1,351 from 500 in August, according to Land Registry figures released on Monday.

    A one-bedroom apartment in Hong Kong's Kowloon district was bought for HK$30,025 per square foot last month, a record for a property of that type in the city, Centaline Property Agency Ltd said. The home was sold for HK$24.5 million.

    Luxury home prices in Hong Kong climbed as much as 28 per cent in the first nine months of the year, as low mortgage costs fuelled buying, according to Colliers International Ltd.

    Prices may rise by between 5 and 10 per cent in the next six to 12 months, the global real-estate broker said last month.

    'The luxury home market is very active,' Buggle Lau, chief analyst at Midland Holdings Ltd, said yesterday. 'Capital from the mainland and overseas is contributing.'

    There is 'enormous liquidity and buying' from Chinese residents, Martin Cubbon, executive director of Swire Pacific Ltd, said on Sept 29.

    The aggregate number of homes registered increased to 12,285 from 11,250 in August, the government said on its website.

    'We probably will see consolidation after home prices, especially luxury apartments, jumped quite a bit, because the market thinks interest rates may have bottomed out,' Credit Suisse analyst Cusson Leung said in an interview.

    Mortgage rates in Hong Kong are the lowest in at least 19 years as banks seek to offset slower demand for other types of credit.

    Lenders have cut mortgage rates 'to such an extent that they might not have given due regard to the reputation risk, interest rate risk and liquidity risk potentially associated with their pricing', Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) deputy chief executive Y K Choi said on Sept 17.

    'Average mortgage rates are going to pick up gradually,' Peter Wong, head of the Hong Kong unit of HSBC Holdings plc, said in the city last week.

    New mortgage loans approved fell 8.2 per cent in August from a month earlier to HK$34.2 billion, the HKMA said last month.

    Hong Kong home prices may fall in coming months as Chinese investors face a slowdown in lending growth at home, reducing their buying power, said Mr Leung at Credit Suisse. 'Mainland investors' appetite goes along with growth of liquidity in China, which has already showed signs of slowing down,' he said.

    China's banks extended 410.4 billion yuan (S$80.3 billion) of local-currency loans in August, up from 355.9 billion yuan in July, according to official figures. New lending in September may fall to a range between 300 billion and 400 billion yuan, China Banking Regulatory Commission chairman Liu Mingkang said on Monday.

    Hong Kong is the world's fifth-most expensive residential real estate market, after Monte Carlo, Moscow, London and Tokyo, according to Global Property Guide. -- Bloomberg

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    Strong China trade, loan figures back recovery case
    Zhou Xin and Simon Rabinovitch
    Reuters
    Beijing, China
    Wednesday, 14 October 2009, 5.58pm CCT


    A worker melts a structure of a billboard at a construction site in Hefei, Anhui province. - Photo: Reuters

    China reported surprisingly strong trade figures on Wednesday, providing fresh evidence that the world's third-largest economy is firmly on the path to recoveryand that global demand is improvingtoo.

    Exports in September fell 15.2% from a year earlier, beating forecasts of a 21% fall, while imports fell just 3.5% -- well short of expectations of a 15.3% decline, the General Administration of Customs said.

    Brian Jackson, an economist at Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong, said the slower pace of decline was good news for China's recovery because growth this year has depended too much on the government's 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package.

    Indeed, after adjustments to take account of the number of working days in each month, exports rose 6.3% in September from August and imports rose 8.3%, Customs said.

    "Stronger external demand will provide an alternative source of support for growth and provide scope for Beijing to start tightening policy gradually from early 2010," Jackson said.

    With imports showing strength, China's trade surplus fell to $12.9 billion last month from $15.7 billion in August. Markets had expected a figure of $17.0 billion.

    Economists expect the year-on-year readings in exports to keep improving. Trade slumped after a shock to confidence from the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008, creating an increasingly favorable statistical base of comparison as 2009 wears on.
    Nomura said it expected the year-on-year change in exports to turn positive by December, while Barclays Capital said it could be as early as November.

    "Overall, export performance will be much better in the months to come. I think it's going to be sustainable and it's going to accelerate. There are some rush orders coming to China for Christmas, so I expect probably a pretty strong reboundin November and December," said Dong Tao, chief China economist for Credit Suisse in Hong Kong.

    Demand At Home And Abroad

    Yu Song and Helen Qiao at Goldman Sachs said calendar quirks -- there were more working days this September than last -- were not the only explanation for the relatively robust data.

    "We believe the underlying growth momentum of exports and imports has been improving, on the back of continued strength in the domestic economy as well as the increasingly visible signs of recovery in external demand," they said in a note to clients.

    Mingchun Sun with Nomura in Hong Kong agreed. He said China was busy buying more investment goods to implement the infrastructure-centered stimulus package, as well as consumer goods following an unexpected spending boom.

    Commodities were a driving force behind the sharp improvement in imports. China bought a record 64.55 million tons of iron ore in September, up 30% from August; imports of copper rose 23%.

    The China data helped fuel gains in domestic and global stock and in commodities. The Shanghai stock market halved its gains to end up 1.17%, a four-week closing high, while copper futures rose in Shanghai and London.

    "The Chinese economy is obviously strong and that has created demand for copper," said David Moore, a commodity strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

    Annual economic growth probably accelerated to 8.9% in the third quarter, from 7.9% in the second, according to economists polled by Reuters. The figures are due on October 22.

    Strong Loans, Leap In Reserves

    New loans, the lifeblood of any economy, rose a surprisingly strong 516.7 billion yuan ($75.7 billion) in September. Money supply also expanded faster than forecast, signaling that consumers and
    firms were spending and investing freely.

    "Economic activity, especially in the corporate sector, has picked up, exports are recovering and bank loans to small and medium-sized enterprises are on the rise," said Zhao Qingming, an economist with China Construction Bank in Beijing.

    Currency traders started building in expectations of renewed appreciation in the yuan.

    China halted the currency's three-year climb against the dollar in July 2008 to protect the country's vast export sector.

    But economists say that Beijing will eventually want to let the yuan resume its rise to boost domestic demand and so help rebalance both the Chinese and the global economies -- a key aim of the Group of 20 forum, where Beijing is an influential voice.

    In a potent reminder of the scale of today's imbalances, China's central bank said its holdings of foreign exchange reserves, the world's largest stockpile, jumped $141 billion in the third quarter to $2.27 trillion.

    The reserves have ballooned in recent years because the central bank buys most of the dollars flowing into China -- from the trade surplus, for example -- in order to hold down the yuan's exchange rate.

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    Top of the Pile
    Alfred Liu
    The Standard
    Hong Kong
    Wednesday, 14 October 2009




    Prices for luxury properties in Hong Kong are now firmly at a sky-high level, a fact confirmed yesterday as a developer slapped a price of more than HK$63,000 psf on a premium apartment in Mid-Levels.


    That will make it the highest-priced penthouse in Asia - and it is not even on top of the building.

    The top-of-the-pile tab was revealed as Henderson Land Development (0012) released the first price list for its residential project 39 Conduit Road yesterday. On it was the HK$357.7 million, 5,636-sq-ft duplex. That means a square- foot record of HK$63,473.

    Another duplex, 5,131 sq ft and also on the 66th floor of the 88-story building, is listed at HK$311.4 million, or HK$60,696 psf.

    In June last year, Sun Hung Kai Properties (0016) sold a 5,497-sq-ft penthouse at The Arch, atop Kowloon MTR Station for HK$41,100 psf - a record for Asia.

    The pattern of soaring prices is setting off alarms as well as expressions of amazement.

    Lui Hon-kwong, associate professor of marketing and international business at Lingnan University, warned of the danger of a price bubble in the property market, which is drawing huge inflows of cash from super-rich mainlanders.

    "A price bubble is determined by the mainland government's policy direction," he said. "If it does not support people in investments, our property market will lose ground and prices will plunge."

    Still, Eddie Hui Chi-man of Polytechnic University's department of building and real estate notes that the sale of expensive homes by Henderson is at the upper extremes of the property market and should not have a bearing on the mass market.

    "Some super-rich people are chasing luxury homes like others collect paintings and wine because they are rare," Hui said.

    "The property market is recovering ahead of the real economy, however, and people can afford mortgage payments."

    Besides the two premium duplex homes, Henderson also set prices for 18 "regular" homes in the block - sized at 2,808 and 3,284 sq ft - from HK$73.4 million to HK$137.9 million. The developer's sales general manager, Thomas Lam Tat-man, said the company will set about securing sales as early as this afternoon.

    Customers have shown interest in 20 to 30 apartments, Lam said. They are negotiating up to HK$70,000 psf for the most expensive unit.

    The project has a total of 66 homes sized from 2,800 to about 7,600 sq ft, with two penthouses on the 88th floor still to be priced. Henderson has suggested it could be seeking a staggering HK$100,000 psf for the loftiest pair.

    The firm intends to sell 40% of the homes this year, which would bring in about HK$4 billion. Lam predicts a 10% increase in prices for homes sold later.
    Midland Realty regional sales director Jimmy Lee said the prices asked by Henderson will not deter buyers. "Housing supply in Mid-Levels is very limited and investors have long been waiting for new units."

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    内地资金频繁进入 香港豪宅炒风炽热
    联合早报
    星期一, 19-10-2009

    香港的二手楼价最近也不断上涨,将创11年半以来新高。研究报告警告,香港房地产泡沫有可能超越1997年高峰。

    (香港综合电)香港房价不断攀升将创11年新高。内地资金频繁进入香港楼市近日受到香港社会关注。有研究报告指去年香港住宅成交额中有5%-10%为内地资金,内地买家所购物业多集中在中高档价位。

    据英国广播公司(BBC)报道,香港房地产市场连续上涨,专家认为有可能再度出现严重泡沫。

    香港不但豪宅炒风日炽,二手楼价也不断上涨。研究报告警告,香港房地产泡沫有可能超越1997年高峰。

    内地富商去港购置房产促使香港豪宅价格大涨。不久前一座香港豪宅以4亿3900万港元(7890万新元)售出,甚至打破伦敦的纪录,成为全球最贵分层式建筑。此外,普通二手楼价格也持续大幅度上涨。

    专家分析说,其原因是近来美元下跌拖累港元,推高资产价格,致使房价不断攀升。

    香港二手楼价过去一周上涨1.51%。房地产人士预测,本周只需再涨0.24%,二手楼价将超过去年3月的高位,创出过去11年半以来的新高。

    香港楼市是否有泡沫已再次成为讨论焦点。瑞银房地产发表报告指出,目前港府紧缩的土地供应政策,助长了楼市出现泡沫。

    报告建议港府将公屋供应改为私人住宅,增加市场供应,否则香港楼市极有可能出现甚至比1997更为严重的资产泡沫。

    特首曾荫权表示,政府每天都在关注楼价情况。但他指出,目前的楼价仍比1997年的高峰低两成八。

    曾荫权还说,政府虽然有能力干预市场,但这将给百万物业持有者的利益造成损失。

    政务司司长唐英年也说,当局正在密切注意着楼市走向。但他强调,楼价是受整体经济和外围因素影响,应当由市场去做决定。

    不过,多个地产代理的数据显示,香港大部分大型私人屋苑楼价都未回到1997年高位水平,显示现在楼市未见泡沫。另外,多位学者及经济分析员接受媒体访问时均认为,现时楼市远非如1997年时“全民皆炒”的疯狂现象。

    另据新华社报道,内地资金频繁进入香港楼市近日受到香港社会关注。中银香港研究报告称去年香港住宅成交额中有5%-10%为内地资金,野村证券研究称内地买家所购物业多集中在中高档价位。

    据香港《文汇报》报道,中银香港研究报告引述香港地产代理估计,进入香港楼市的内地资金约占全部成交金额的5%至10%,若以2008年住宅成交金额3400亿港元计算,内地资金额约为170亿至340亿港元,已形成一定的购买力。

    野村证券研究指出,内地买家较喜欢位于港岛或九龙区的较新的中高价位物业,研究表示,在售价1000万港元至2000万港元的物业交易量中,内地买家占比达16%;500万至1000万港元区间的占比为13%;2000万港元以上的物业占比达12%;但500万港元以下的则只有4%。

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