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    Default Homes more affordable as incomes rise

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Prime%2B...ry_419760.html

    August 22, 2009 Saturday

    Homes more affordable as incomes rise

    Relatively cheaper than in 1996 boom year, data from two reports say

    By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent


    PRIVATE home prices may be on the rise again but new data suggest home buyers swept up in the latest frenzy are not necessarily overstretching themselves.

    Buyers are finding condominiums far more affordable relative to their income now than they did during the mass market property boom of 1996, thanks to strong wealth creation in recent years.

    This is the conclusion of separate new figures from financial giant Citigroup and property consultancy Jones Lang LaSalle.

    Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: 'Today, the average condominium is probably selling for around 19 times the annual income of the average Singaporean. While this is by no means cheap, it is still significantly lower than the peak of over 40 times in 1996, and around 24 times in 2007, though obviously higher than the lows of around 15 times from 2003-2006.'

    Mr Kit's study looked at absolute prices rather than the price per square foot.

    His measure of affordability does not take account of a couple of factors boosting affordability in the current market.

    First, the average condo buyer earns a higher-than-average wage, and is likely to have enjoyed faster wages growth.

    Second, interest rates are far lower now than in 1996 and 2007. Analysts say this is helping to fuel demand.

    Also, Mr Kit's study uses average income, which could be significantly higher than the median - or midpoint - given the widening gap between rich and poor.

    As well, he uses the average selling price of condos, which also could be higher than the median as the former is pulled up by the sale of expensive prime units, especially in recent years.

    Jones Lang LaSalle compiles an affordability index looking mainly at the interaction between economic growth rates, housing prices and mortgage rates.

    Its index has been falling since 2007.

    It now shows private mass market homes are more affordable to first-time home buyers and HDB upgraders than in 2007 or 1996, said the firm's head of research for South-east Asia, Dr Chua Yang Liang.

    For HDB upgraders, affordability has improved a lot more than for first-time home buyers because HDB prices have risen substantially, he said.

    Overall, strong wealth creation in recent years has also helped. Total economic output, or gross domestic product (GDP), per capita was $50,022 last year - exceeding the 15-year average of $40,866 by 22 per cent, said Dr Chua. Private apartment or condo prices have surpassed the 15-year average by just 16 per cent, he said.

    The Urban Redevelopment Authority price index - designed to give a broad indication of price trends for private homes - fell 4.7 per cent in the second quarter.

    A URA spokesman said prices for both uncompleted and completed projects still fell over the quarter even though some developers are raising prices for selected projects with good take-up.

    Still, consultancies say home prices rose in the second quarter from the first.

    Property consultant Nicholas Mak said more suburban condos are being launched at higher prices than in 1996.

    However, 'at the moment, prices in most projects are still within fundamental levels, even though many people have their pay frozen or cut and rents have fallen', said DTZ's head of South-east Asia research, Ms Chua Chor Hoon.

    'This is because income and rents had risen in the last few years when the economy was doing well; hence there was fat to cushion this current downturn.'

    Mr Kit said: 'Put another way, in nine out of the past 11 years, growth in wages has outpaced growth in property prices.'

    Households also have far less debt than five or six years ago, with the household debt to GDP ratio falling from over 96 per cent in 2003, to about 70 per cent today.

    These factors, combined with a resilient labour market, helped lift demand.

    Also, many projects now have smaller units. 'The new projects may look very affordable if you consider the absolute amount paid but you're buying a smaller apartment,' said Mr Mak.

    The future, though, is hazy.

    Many analysts think price growth is unlikely to be sustainable if the economic recovery is slow and incomes do not keep pace.

    'You can identify a bubble only retrospectively but I think we can't deny that one could be forming as the recent uplift in home prices and volume is not accompanied by a broad-based economic recovery,' said Dr Chua.

    Mr Kit said: 'The uncertainty lies in whether the current demand will be sufficiently sustained to absorb the substantial pipeline of new supply coming onstream, especially if interest rates rise, or when prices become substantially less affordable to the average home buyer.'

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    http://www.straitstimes.com/ST%2BFor...ry_421344.html

    August 26, 2009 Wednesday

    Affordability of homes

    Let's do the comparisons right


    I REFER to last Saturday's report, 'Homes more affordable as incomes rise'.

    It is meaningless to compare the current property boom with the peak of 1996 and then conclude that things are better now compared to then. This is akin to comparing the current sub-prime financial crisis with the Great Depression of the 1930s and concluding that things are not so bad.

    Likewise, it is meaningless for Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng to conclude that things are better now than in 1996. The fact that the current property boom is not the worst does not imply that it isn't bad.

    For a better appreciation of our current situation, we should note that from 1990 to last year, condominium prices increased threefold, whereas during the same period, median household income grew by only 2.1 times.

    In other words, there has been a 50 per cent increase in condominium prices over and above salary increases over this period. So we are indeed worse off now compared to 1990.

    Jones Lang LaSalle head of research Chua Yang Liang's affordability calculations are misleading too.

    First, it is wrong to just use per capita gross domestic product (GDP) as only about 40 per cent of our GDP is attributable to wages.

    Furthermore, in absolute terms, the 22 per cent increase in last year's per capita GDP over its 15-year average is only $9,156, whereas the 38 per cent increase in condo prices over its 15-year average of say $700,000 amounts to $266,000. So even before considering interest, it will take an extra 29 years for the extra income to pay for the increase in condominium prices.

    Mr Kit's statement that out of the past 11 years, growth in wages has outpaced growth in property prices is also incorrect. Comparing median income and property prices for the past nine years, there were five years when property prices outgrew income.

    Ng Kok Lim

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    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    The fact that the current property boom is not the worst does not imply that it isn't bad.

    Ng Kok Lim
    I wonder why he used the adjectives "worst" and "bad" to describe property booms?

    Shouldn't it be:

    The fact that the current property boom is not the best does not imply that it isn't good?

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    Pessimistic person maybe??
    ("This is akin to comparing the current sub-prime financial crisis with the Great Depression of the 1930s and concluding that things are not so bad.")



    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    I wonder why he used the adjectives "worst" and "bad" to describe property booms?

    Shouldn't it be:

    The fact that the current property boom is not the best does not imply that it isn't good?

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    Homes are definitely getting more affordable.

    The number of people earning more than $1 million a year has ballooned ...

    Year . Number . Percentage Increase
    2002 ... 1,422
    2003 ... 1,451 ............. 2.0%
    2004 ... 1,481 ............. 2.1%
    2005 ... 1,738 ........... 17.4%
    2006 ... 2,121 ........... 22.0%
    2007 ... 2,751 ........... 29.7%
    2008 ... 3,838 ........... 39.5%

    Notice the number only goes up but never comes down.

    During recession years like 2002/2003, the number went up slower but once the recession was over e.g. 2005/6/7/8, the number exploded! Just look at the percentage increase!

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Homes are definitely getting more affordable.

    The number of people earning more than $1 million a year has ballooned ...

    Year . Number . Percentage Increase
    2002 ... 1,422
    2003 ... 1,451 ............. 2.0%
    2004 ... 1,481 ............. 2.1%
    2005 ... 1,738 ........... 17.4%
    2006 ... 2,121 ........... 22.0%
    2007 ... 2,751 ........... 29.7%
    2008 ... 3,838 ........... 39.5%

    Notice the number only goes up but never comes down.

    During recession years like 2002/2003, the number went up slower but once the recession was over e.g. 2005/6/7/8, the number exploded! Just look at the percentage increase!
    but thats not a good indication that the general public is getting richer ..


    from 2001-2003 my group of 20 poker friends there were 4 millionaires ..

    from 2006-2009 the same 20 friends , there are about 15 millionaires ..

    BUT they bought numerous properties ... as much as 4 units at one time , each 1500-1900 psf and size at least 1500 sqft .. .

    they havent yet sold .. cos prices fell from where they purchased them ..

    they are still millionaires .. but the total number of properties they all hold remain the same ..

    what i am saying is .. the number of rich may have increased ..but that does not mean .. they are purchasing more ..

    so these millionaires are NOT a reason to justify higher mass market prices .. Nor a reason to conclude that the general public is wealthier

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    but thats not a good indication that the general public is getting richer ..


    from 2001-2003 my group of 20 poker friends there were 4 millionaires ..

    from 2006-2009 the same 20 friends , there are about 15 millionaires ..

    BUT they bought numerous properties ... as much as 4 units at one time , each 1500-1900 psf and size at least 1500 sqft .. .

    they havent yet sold .. cos prices fell from where they purchased them ..

    they are still millionaires .. but the total number of properties they all hold remain the same ..

    what i am saying is .. the number of rich may have increased ..but that does not mean .. they are purchasing more ..

    so these millionaires are NOT a reason to justify higher mass market prices .. Nor a reason to conclude that the general public is wealthier
    Wah ...

    Are you one of the 15 million-dollar-earners? Even if not, at the rate your group of poker friends turn into millionaires, given another few years you should also be one.

    What do you buy when you earn more than a million dollars a year? Properties of course!

    If I earn more than a million dollar a year, I will buy a Good Class Bungalow.

    That's the ultimate investment of all times!

    Otherwise where do you put your money?

    Only real estate is "real". It can be touched, felt and smelled.

    Whereas those Lehman Brothers investment products and Bernie Madoff annual statements ...

    I can also get a laser printer and print my own statements.

    Dear Mr. So-And-So,

    Your net position is now $500,000,000.

    Yours Sincerely,

    Bernie Madoff

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Wah ...

    Are you one of the 15 million-dollar-earners? Even if not, at the rate your group of poker friends turn into millionaires, given another few years you should also be one.

    What do you buy when you earn more than a million dollars a year? Properties of course!

    If I earn more than a million dollar a year, I will buy a Good Class Bungalow.

    That's the ultimate investment of all times!

    Otherwise where do you put your money?

    Only real estate is "real". It can be touched, felt and smelled.

    Whereas those Lehman Brothers investment products and Bernie Madoff annual statements ...

    I can also get a laser printer and print my own statements.

    ahahha

    no comments on that

    but eys GCB is ultimate .. but i wont buy in Spore ..even when you live there , the prop tax is crazy ..

    i would buy big landed detach, or big landed semi D ... much better value ..

    i have 2 problems in spore ,, one stay , one rent .. the rental covers the mortgage for both properties .. so they run on its own ..

    i put money in real est yes but not in singapore anymore

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    ahahha

    no comments on that

    but eys GCB is ultimate .. but i wont buy in Spore ..even when you live there , the prop tax is crazy ..

    i would buy big landed detach, or big landed semi D ... much better value ..

    i have 2 problems in spore ,, one stay , one rent .. the rental covers the mortgage for both properties .. so they run on its own ..

    i put money in real est yes but not in singapore anymore
    sorry i meant to say " I have 2 properties in spore"
    not " 2 problems"

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    ahahha

    no comments on that

    but eys GCB is ultimate .. but i wont buy in Spore ..even when you live there , the prop tax is crazy ..

    i would buy big landed detach, or big landed semi D ... much better value ..

    i have 2 problems in spore ,, one stay , one rent .. the rental covers the mortgage for both properties .. so they run on its own ..

    i put money in real est yes but not in singapore anymore
    Haha ... for a moment I thought you have 2 "problem properties".

    Where do you invest outside Singapore? Any good recommendations?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Haha ... for a moment I thought you have 2 "problem properties".

    Where do you invest outside Singapore? Any good recommendations?

    london NY

    they will always be the favorite among the rich in the world ..

    prices are at all time low in US .. go to some US property portals ...
    you will find diamonds ... good location ... damn good price

    if sinagporeans can afford to buy expensive condos and leave it empty ( unable to rent out, and say bank interst low, leave empty also ok) ..

    buy outside spore .. leave it empty ..cheaper somemore .. when it recovers ... its going to double ...easily

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    london NY

    they will always be the favorite among the rich in the world ..

    prices are at all time low in US .. go to some US property portals ...
    you will find diamonds ... good location ... damn good price

    if sinagporeans can afford to buy expensive condos and leave it empty ( unable to rent out, and say bank interst low, leave empty also ok) ..

    buy outside spore .. leave it empty ..cheaper somemore .. when it recovers ... its going to double ...easily
    I have also thought about that ... but the problem is I'm not familiar with the overseas property markets.

    Property is very location sensitive. Just a few hundred metres' difference, and even the direction, can make a lot of difference in price.

    Here in Singapore, I'm very familiar with the difference between Draycott, Cuscaden, Cairnhill, Paterson and River Valley, although all are "around Orchard Road". No agent can bluff me.

    But if I buy overseas properties, I won't be so knowledgeable and the overseas agent would probably run rings around me.

    I don't want to end up like those overseas investors who are now stuck with The Marq On Paterson Hill at $5,000 psf, even though it is on the wrong side of Orchard Road.

    Recently I was contemplating KL properties but chickened out after my relatives showed me around their properties in KL and explained the differences between "this side of Damansara Heights" versus "that side"; and how "this view of KLCC" is different from "that view", and the prices could differ by two to three times!

    Like that ... if I buy wrongly and pay two to three times more for a property which is not worth this much, then even if it doubles, I would still lose money!

    How do you overcome this challenge? Do you reside overseas?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    I have also thought about that ... but the problem is I'm not familiar with the overseas property markets.

    Property is very location sensitive. Just a few hundred metres' difference, and even the direction, can make a lot of difference in price.

    Here in Singapore, I'm very familiar with the difference between Draycott, Cuscaden, Cairnhill, Paterson and River Valley, although all are "around Orchard Road". No agent can bluff me.

    But if I buy overseas properties, I won't be so knowledgeable and the overseas agent would probably run rings around me.

    I don't want to end up like those overseas investors who are now stuck with The Marq On Paterson Hill at $5,000 psf, even though it is on the wrong side of Orchard Road.

    Recently I was contemplating KL properties but chickened out after my relatives showed me around their properties in KL and explained the differences between "this side of Damansara Heights" versus "that side"; and how "this view of KLCC" is different from "that view", and the prices could differ by two to three times!

    Like that ... if I buy wrongly and pay two to three times more for a property which is not worth this much, then even if it doubles, I would still lose money!

    How do you overcome this challenge? Do you reside overseas?
    That's why I always try to invest in singapore only. You never had the chance to monitor the prices for overseas investments. Agents will smoke you up and con you into selling.

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    Ya.. i also think it's better to buy properties in area where you have at least lived for a year or so..

    For me, I can only contemplate brisbane, australia since I studied there and know the difference between where the prime and non-prime is.

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    Earning a mil every year and being a millionaire is totally different.


    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    but thats not a good indication that the general public is getting richer ..


    from 2001-2003 my group of 20 poker friends there were 4 millionaires ..

    from 2006-2009 the same 20 friends , there are about 15 millionaires ..

    BUT they bought numerous properties ... as much as 4 units at one time , each 1500-1900 psf and size at least 1500 sqft .. .

    they havent yet sold .. cos prices fell from where they purchased them ..

    they are still millionaires .. but the total number of properties they all hold remain the same ..

    what i am saying is .. the number of rich may have increased ..but that does not mean .. they are purchasing more ..

    so these millionaires are NOT a reason to justify higher mass market prices .. Nor a reason to conclude that the general public is wealthier

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    Quote Originally Posted by Douk
    Earning a mil every year and being a millionaire is totally different.
    But if you have the millions, earning a million every year is not a problem.

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    Quote Originally Posted by focus
    But if you have the millions, earning a million every year is not a problem.
    When I just started out trying to earn my first million. I said I will stop and relax when I made it. After I earned my first million. I'm hungry for more. Now with so many millions in my banks, what is another million more or less? Sigh....

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    http://www.straitstimes.com/ST%2BFor...ry_422667.html

    August 29, 2009 Saturday

    Spike in property values driven by 'feeling of wealth'


    I REFER to Mr Ng Kok Lim's letter last Wednesday, 'Affordability of homes: Let's do the comparisons right'.

    Jones Lang LaSalle's Affordability Index is a comparison of how properties are relatively affordable for a typical resident at a point in time given the prevailing interest rate, property prices and other macro market conditions.

    The index compares the condition today with that of a base year and is not a measurement or statement on the ability of an individual to purchase.

    The index shows that affordability of residential property in 2008/2009 has improved relative to conditions in 2006/7, given the lower interest rate and home prices.

    'GDP per capita' or 'wealth creation' was mentioned in the discussion only to illustrate the 'feeling of wealth' in the economy that has helped lift buyers' sentiments, contributing to the recent surge in buying volume. However, this indicator is not a parameter in the Jones Lang LaSalle Affordability Index.

    Our view is that the recent spike in property values have been driven by the 'feeling of wealth', latent demand and lower costs of financing.

    This spike, if not accompanied by an equivalent growth in the economy and income, could lead to asset inflation in the longer term.

    Chua Yang Liang (Dr)

    Head of Research and Consultancy, Singapore

    Head of Research, South-east Asia

    Jones Lang LaSalle

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    When I just started out trying to earn my first million. I said I will stop and relax when I made it. After I earned my first million. I'm hungry for more. Now with so many millions in my banks, what is another million more or less? Sigh....
    One million is not worth much nowadays ...

    Last time one million can buy 20 bungalows; nowadays 20 million can buy one bungalow.

    I think to retire comfortably, one needs at least $10 million.

    But then money is very addictive ... forever will never have enough of it.

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    http://www.straitstimes.com/ST%2BFor...ry_422665.html

    Aug 29, 2009

    AFFORDABILITY OF HOMES

    Why 1996 was used as a reference point


    I REFER to Wednesday's letter, 'Affordability of homes: Let's do the comparisons right'. When it comes to the appropriate base year of comparison, there is always room for debate. Using 1996 as a reference point is in response to a question of whether the current property rally represents a bubble. Looking at affordability during the bubble years would help to answer this question, and it is in this context that the comparison should be viewed.

    There are also various definitions of income. The measure referenced in the original article ('Homes more affordable as incomes rise', Aug 22) was based on average annual wage, computed from the average monthly earnings of individuals compiled by the Department of Statistics. This is based on earnings of Central Provident Fund contributors obtained from the CPF Board administrative records, and includes all remuneration received before deductions of employee's CPF contributions and personal income tax. This measure of income differs from median household incomes which, apart from growth in individual wages, is also affected by the number of working members per household.

    Using this measure, average wage growth had outpaced growth in average condominium prices in nine of the past 11 years. The average condo price, as a multiple of annual wage, was close to the 10-year average (which excludes the bubble peaks) as of June. This simple measure of affordability does not take into account current low interest rates, or the probability that the average condo buyer is likely to have a higher-than-average income - both of which would have increased affordability. Our studies also showed that households have seen a significant increase in their financial assets since the start of the decade, which would have also improved overall affordability from a stock (as opposed to just a flow) perspective.

    Comments in the original article should not be misconstrued as implying that prices can continue rising indefinitely. Indeed, as indicated, there is uncertainty about whether current demand will be sufficiently sustained to absorb the considerable pipeline of new supply in the coming years, especially if interest rates rise, or when prices rise to the point where they become substantially less affordable.

    Kit Wei Zheng

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    http://www.straitstimes.com/ST%2BFor...ry_424237.html

    Sep 2, 2009 Wednesday

    Wrong way to determine if there's a bubble in property market


    I REFER to Mr Kit Wei Zheng's letter, "Why 1996 was used as a reference point", last Saturday.

    Essentially, Mr Kit was comparing the current high property prices with the peak of 1996 to determine if we are indeed having a bubble now. This is akin to comparing K2 with Mount Everest to determine if K2 is indeed a mountain. The fact that K2 is shorter than Everest does not mean that it isn't a mountain.

    Similarly, the fact that the current situation isn't as bad as that in 1996 does not mean that it isn't a bubble. It is only from the perspective of those years of stable property prices that we are able to appreciate the current boom and the peak of 1996 for what they are - bubbles. So even though the current boom has not reached the levels of 1996 yet, it is close enough to warrant concern and should not be dismissed as being not near enough.

    Mr Kit should also know that average income is easily influenced by rising income gaps, so the median income is a better gauge of the average person's earnings.

    Also, compared to individual income, household income is a better gauge of home affordability because it is mostly the household that buys properties rather than the individual. Furthermore, since individual income is lower than household income, using it to calculate home affordability would paint a bleaker picture. So it is surprising that Mr Kit used individual income but ended up with more rosy conclusions. But whether average or median income is used, the conclusion is the same: In five of the last nine years, property prices outpaced income.

    While Mr Kit is right to say that the average condo buyer will have higher than average income, this was true in 1996 too.

    The fact that households have seen a significant increase in financial assets does not mean anything for new households or future generations who have nothing to fall back on and would have to bear the burden of any property price increases that creep in over the years.

    Mr Kit has, in effect, justified the current boom as being within the tolerable limits of the previous bubble. This is like someone who says that even though he is only 20kg overweight, there is no cause for concern because he used to be 50kg overweight.

    Ng Kok Lim

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    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    Mr Kit should also know that average income is easily influenced by rising income gaps, so the median income is a better gauge of the average person's earnings.

    But whether average or median income is used, the conclusion is the same: In five of the last nine years, property prices outpaced income.


    Ng Kok Lim
    The way this Ng Kok Lim talks about "averages", he seems to assume that each person is entitled to own only one or two properties.

    He does not seem to be very knowledgeable about properties.

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    Singapore's total employment up in Q3 2009
    AsiaOne
    Friday, 30 October 2009



    Total employment is estimated to have grown by 15,400 in the third quarter, reflecting Singapore's recovering economy.

    This ends losses seen in the first (-6,200) and second (-7,700) quarter of the year. However, the gains are still significantly lower than the 55,700 seen in the third quarter of 2008.

    Apart from manufacturing, the major sectors showed growth, according to figures released by the Ministry of Manpower.

    Services employment rose by 13,400 in the third quarter, significantly higher than the gains of 7,500 in the first and 3,800 in the second quarter this year, but lower than 34,300 in the third quarter last year.

    Construction continued to add workers (8,100), higher than the increase in the preceding quarter (4,700) and comparable to the first quarter of 2009 (8,300).

    Manufacturing shed workers for the fourth consecutive quarter, but the decline (-6,600) was substantially lower than in the first two quarters this year.

    Figures for retrenchment and redundancy also improved, with an estimated 2,000 workers retrenched and 200 workers whose contracts were terminated prematurely.

    This is significantly lower than the 5,980 workers made redundant in the second quarter of 2009, comprising 5,170 workers retrenched and 810 workers whose contracts were terminated prematurely.

    Meanwhile, the seasonally adjusted overall unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.4% in September 2009 from 3.3% in June 2009, while on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the overall unemployment rate decreased from 4.1% in June 2009 to 2.9% in September 2009.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Homes are definitely getting more affordable.

    The number of people earning more than $1 million a year has ballooned ...

    Year . Number . Percentage Increase
    2002 ... 1,422
    2003 ... 1,451 ............. 2.0%
    2004 ... 1,481 ............. 2.1%
    2005 ... 1,738 ........... 17.4%
    2006 ... 2,121 ........... 22.0%
    2007 ... 2,751 ........... 29.7%
    2008 ... 3,838 ........... 39.5%

    Notice the number only goes up but never comes down.

    During recession years like 2002/2003, the number went up slower but once the recession was over e.g. 2005/6/7/8, the number exploded! Just look at the percentage increase!
    Maybe higher employment and expected salary increment are going to make homes more affordable?

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