Trevista (D12, 99 years leasehold, NTUC Choice Homes)

[mezz72sg]

Ya, you are right.

If everyone got 2 or more houses, do we really have so many buyers to buy from you???

Or tenant to rent your house???

Buyers please THINK!!!!!

Don't get burn!!!!!!

When people rush to buy.....is time to get out....NOW!!!!!!!!!!

Aa lot of buying are based on sentiments, kiasu mentality and hope, not logic.
Unwinding will slowly happen. But if a sudden turn of events takes place, like a lot of job losses, major recession, serious pandemic etc, then things will all start falling like a pack of cards as everyone rushes for the exits.

[teddybear]

Don't worry. According to 2008 income statistics, now almost 35% of household has average household income of $8k and above! This is higher than 2007! As such who said that income didn't increase? (It seems this is only true for the lower income earners). Since >=$8k they can't buy new HDB flats, many are turning to buy private properties. $8k income should have no problem servicing a $800k loan (assuming a $1m property).

Then how the Genx couple going to service their huge loan?

[teddybear]

When they take up the loan, the loan form will request them to state their intention for purchasing the property - own-stay or investment.

ok, they got it from URA. But how does URA knows whether these group are buying for own stay or investment ?

It has to be based on the loan type right ?

[teddybear]

By the way, economic data coming out now has confirmed that the worse is over for US economy and also for Singapore economy. You still expecting the worse to come? After the huge shock almost 1 year ago, it seems nothing can be worse (not even H1N1).

Aa lot of buying are based on sentiments, kiasu mentality and hope, not logic.
Unwinding will slowly happen. But if a sudden turn of events takes place, like a lot of job losses, major recession, serious pandemic etc, then things will all start falling like a pack of cards as everyone rushes for the exits.

[Douk]

When they take up the loan, the loan form will request them to state their intention for purchasing the property - own-stay or investment.

exactly, that is what i meant.

How many will take up a investment loan, most will take up the loan as first property, even though their intention is to invest. anyway, TOP is still years away as long as they get rid of the property near TOP or short period after TOP.

given the small apartment that this group purchased, it is more likely for short term investment rather than own stay. (of course there are also some that dont mind the smaller space, but this should be a smaller group).

[DW]

I agree that HDB often provides a fairly good chance for young couples to make their first "investment" pile from the HDB flat they bought from govt (at a subsidy), if they qualify for it. MOst of the people I know, almost always make money from their first HDB ( assuming they bought direct from HDB), partly due to the first-timers' grant and concessionary interest rates.

For the people whom starts out with a fairly good job, and assuming your job demands the same from you as you are (well) paid, chances are, you will be working quite hard. Many marry slightly later (which is consistent with the trend of later marriages amongst singaporeans). By the time u want to get something together with your spouse (say after 2 years working experience), I am more than certain most would have busted the combined salary ceiling (8K?). I am quite certain I am not being overly generalised but the fact is that many couples easily make above 8K combined income after 2 years of working - that I can say without a shadow of a doubt.

Most people I know of this profile, cannot get HDB, cannot profit from the HDB "windfall" scenario. While you can argue people from this category do not need the HDB "windfall" as they probably can make the same from their income, but it is just the way the HDB scheme works which I feel is rather unfair to these sandwiched class people.

why do you think it is huge?
lets say couple buys HDB for 300k and fully pay for it in 5-8yrs.
they manage to sell it at 500k in current market.
they "upgrade" to a 1mil condo and only have to take a 500k loan.

they are now in the same boat as those new younger couples aiming for those high end HDBs like City View, Natura, etc which goes for around 600-700k.

the difference is, GenX couple probably earns double the income ceiling of GenY which is capped by HDB to qualify for those units.

[teddybear]

Currently, as far as I know, many banks now charge the same interest rate regardless of whether own-stay or investment. So no reason for them to provide false information. In fact, I heard many people sold their HDB flats first and renting elsewhere while waiting to buy their dream property or waiting for their properties to be readily. Then next question is who buy their HDB flats then? Simple, PRs (especially those new PRs employed to work in the 2 new IRs etc). Just look at the 2008 population statistics will know.

exactly, that is what i meant.

How many will take up a investment loan, most will take up the loan as first property, even though their intention is to invest. anyway, TOP is still years away as long as they get rid of the property near TOP or short period after TOP.

given the small apartment that this group purchased, it is more likely for short term investment rather than own stay. (of course there are also some that dont mind the smaller space, but this should be a smaller group).

[yowetan]

are you shock?
GenX refers to mostly babies born in the 70s so they must be in their mid 30s to early 40s.
with 10yrs working experience, i think its average to quote that amount.
please note its a COMBINED amount

Hi cl0ver,

I believe you are probably too optimistic over 15k magical combined income for a couple (Gen X). Perhaps you are one, and you probably have friends in this category. But I definitely not seeing it surrounding me. Instead, many of them are just simply struggling to maintain their lifestyle. Probably floating around at 8 to 10k would be a more realistic and reachable figure for most of the couples.

[cndomay]

Paying 1 mil for a small 3 room condo is very severe, as SGs economy has matured and increase in wages are unlikely. The cost of living here has skyrocketed. A few factors has caused this:

1. land parcels has a reserve price: so, it determines what the market will have to pay.

2. HDB building rate is minimal, so the demand of pte condo rises.

3. Pte condo supply is limited: TPY has not seen a condo launch in 10 years!

4. Fancy HDB high end like Peak raises the bar for home prices. Now people compare condo prices to them and conclude condo is reasonable to pay.

5. People have the funds to service the loan, provided their job is not lost, but forgetting how much of their earnings are locked in their invested properties.

I feel the prices of ALL homes in SG are artificially high but it very hard to untangle it!

[cl0ver]

Hi cl0ver,

I believe you are probably too optimistic over 15k magical combined income for a couple (Gen X). Perhaps you are one, and you probably have friends in this category. But I definitely not seeing it surrounding me. Instead, many of them are just simply struggling to maintain their lifestyle. Probably floating around at 8 to 10k would be a more realistic and reachable figure for most of the couples.

If you struggle, then dont overcommit to a 1mil condo.
The top 40 prefession in Singapore does pay above 7k on average.
This is just an average, with seniority, it gets higher.
Again, im stating the age group of people in their prime of their careers which is from mid 30s to 40s.

http://www.salary.sg/2008/best-payin...ingapore-2008/

edit: it seems the numbers have gone up. NOw the top 50 profession are taking in 7k a month.
Please ask your boss for a raise.

http://www.salary.sg/2009/100-best-j...ingapore-2009/

[azeoprop]

Never kena retrenched already very good liaoz loh....just pay cut only. If ask for pay rise, confirm sacked immediately haa haa....

[xebay11]

Never kena retrenched already very good liaoz loh....just pay cut only. If ask for pay rise, confirm sacked immediately haa haa....

True, I really wonder what kinds of skills people have that employers willing to pay $7k pm?

[Honesty]

[quote=xebay11]True, I really wonder what kinds of skills people have that employers willing to pay $7k pm?[/quote

Other than sales job and those professional people not many earn this type of pay.

Even with this type of pay, is also hardly service the loan.

[blackswan]

Its interesting to note that the buying sentiment is very much the same as US equity market nowadays. Over here, people go for studio, 1 bedder or max 2 bedder, in the US, the interest on NYSE Composite (Not S&P or DOW30, but everything that's trading is NYSE and which is 61% or public domain trading) is the 5 zombie counters (Citi, AIG, BAC, Fannie, Freddie) which is no diff from nationalization and price is cheap/penny. In fact recent month data show that these 5 counters alone make up of around 30-40% of daily volume!!! Signs of conviction? Hardly.

When people talk about better number like durable goods that went up 2.2%, they look at top line number but not the most important one that is Non Durables ex-defense, ex-transportation.

When they look at consumer spending/production, they did the same thing w/o considering the effect of cash for clunkers program.

Like one of the Bro said, can't wait for the time (2011,2012) when all the recently launch project is TOPed and released the huge flood of studio, 1 bedder and 2 bedder. (I can hear people saying by that time, economy will have recovered and that will be tons of FT coming to seek accommodation.)

Anyway, anyone full that construction nowadays is really fast, drove past Balastier and saw that the glass facade for Arte is up and to the higher floor liao!!! Launch way later than SKY 11 but believe its gonna to TOPed around the same time or even earlier.

The next one that's going to be very fast I believe is VIVA, have been pounding for the foundation for over 1 year liao. So the structure should be up pretty fast as the hard part is almost done.

[sleek]

True, I really wonder what kinds of skills people have that employers willing to pay $7k pm?

Other than sales job and those professional people not many earn this type of pay.

Even with this type of pay, is also hardly service the loan.

Hmm.. maybe property agents?

[amk]

For $700,000 loan , they need to service about $3000 to $4000 per month. This is no joke.

Dun forget all these are new purchases. They have 3-4 yrs to build up the savings, also not forgetting some are computing based on future pay increments. For the 30-40 age group, after 10ys of working, a dual income is easily 10k and above (5k salary after 10ys of working is not very hard nowadays). For this group, CPF for each person is already 900 plus.

There is another group that have savings but missed the 2007 run as those pty at 2007 are mostly high end ones. Mass market has never had any peak after 1997.

You case is also the extreme case. I would use a 1250 sqft 3 bd, quantum of 1m as a base line. 1.2m coincidentally, is what the Citi reports says as "resistence level". For those doing 1.2m and above, they already have a large cash savings, and a well paying job.

Then by 2012, if it happen as what you predict, the HDB prices will drop

No I didn't predict that. HDB valuation is high now, but still not yet 1996 level (7/800k). Government has a decisive role in this. It would probably stay at this level, as the government wants to see Singaporeans feel good abt their "value" of home. It's politically correct too. Look around, who is complaining about high HDB valuations ? Most s'poreans are happy. Only the low end FTs who cannot afford condo are complaining. (and the sandwich classes. I feel sorry for them.)

Unless our wages increase accordingly to the level we can afford $900 psf

This is generalizing. For me I see a resistance level of 9## for mass market at matured estates like TPY/Bishan/AMK/Bedok/Clementi/etc, 8## at further East/North MRT areas, but 6##/7## in other areas like Pasir Ris/CCK. This is what the market is showing.

Not every land the developer tender at the price they wanted and we have to pay them accordingly when the development is builded.

We dun have to pay, neither to they have to sell. A developer does his market research and thinks at this level I can sell, he will bid for the site. If afterwards the market collapes, he simply choose not to sell anything. He will just pay the financing cost and wait. Small developers do not have the financial strength and will probably get desperate (case in mind: Sim Lian's Clover project was once reduced price to 6##), bigger ones will just hold. This is the business. In Singapore so far there hasn't been a case where a major developer goes bust. The marketing department of a developer is as smart as you. They will not bid for a site when they see no demand. You can deny all you can "this is not worth xxx", the market shows other wise. Optima sold out at 810, Meadows sold 80% at 900, Trevista will be sold out at $900. The coming MCL Yishun site, at the other thread I said it will do $850, you say $580, you still want to bet with me ? Look these developers are not stupid ppl. You can say "no it's not worth" and dun bite. Ok it's your choice to wait for the next crash. 5ys ? 10ys ? 3ys ? people buying for home stay do not have this horizon to wait. Most of them are married/marrying and starting family. Look at the buyers of Clover/WFK/DBR/Quartz/etc. Most are well paid young couples getting their 1st home. They are worried they will be priced out of the market if they do not bite now. We are just recovering from a so-called "worst crisis" since 1930, how likely there is another crash ? The thought that "we may be priced out again" is not unfounded. Developers are capitalizing on this no doubt. But hey this is the business.

[xebay11]

Hmm.. maybe property agents?

I have seen many property agents borrowing money due to cash flow problems, take a $100K pa RE sales person, after deducting advertising costs fuel costs, putting aside CPF, own medical benefits, insurance etc, like real salaried person, they only make about about $5-6K pm nia and if they are sole bread winner, even worse, still very far from being rich to buy condos, only a very small minority make decent money.

[xebay11]

If you struggle, then dont overcommit to a 1mil condo.
The top 40 prefession in Singapore does pay above 7k on average.
This is just an average, with seniority, it gets higher.
Again, im stating the age group of people in their prime of their careers which is from mid 30s to 40s.

http://www.salary.sg/2008/best-payin...ingapore-2008/

edit: it seems the numbers have gone up. NOw the top 50 profession are taking in 7k a month.
Please ask your boss for a raise.

http://www.salary.sg/2009/100-best-j...ingapore-2009/

Ha Ha this list is just an optimistic list, it is the top paying of each category and not the median. I know many employers paying far less for such professions, even if you feel you are really worth that much, employers these days would just get a foreigner to replace you.

A few years ago, I had a colleague who once boasted to me, "I can walk out of here any day and get double of what I am getting" I said "Go ahead, you would be most likely replaced with a foreigner who would accept half of what you are getting" today he is still working in the same company.

[xebay11]

They are worried they will be priced out of the market if they do not bite now. We are just recovering from a so-called "worst crisis" since 1930, how likely there is another crash ? The thought that "we may be priced out again" is not unfounded. Developers are capitalizing on this no doubt. But hey this is the business.

Huh? You talk so much about market forces dictating the market in your long post, but your conclusion is that people are buying purely out of fear ie. when is the next crash? and fear of being priced out, somehow mitigates all you say about true market forces. I think nobody wants to bet with you on the next PSF level, if people don't buy it will collapse, why need stupid wager? You talk like PSF pricing is some magic number not subject to supply and demand. If developer really pay high and the market don't bite I bet prices will fall, want to take me on?

Wake up people this is wrong and dangerous, people should buy according to what they have now and what they can safely afford, should be factoring in short career lifespan these days and retrenchments due to companies relocating. Why go for tiny shoe box condos at such ridiculous prices? HDBs are just a comfortable these days and many are so much better spaced out and less cramped. Many condos you can even know when your neighbour just had durians.....geez.

[cl0ver]

xebay, so are you saying that you are not in this category?
are you a single income earner?
you seemed to be able to afford The Medley which appears to be sold at an average of 900psft.

tell us how you worked out the sum? I hope its not inherritance money or tio toto?

[blueb]

...
http://www.salary.sg/2008/best-payin...ingapore-2008/

edit: it seems the numbers have gone up. NOw the top 50 profession are taking in 7k a month.
Please ask your boss for a raise.

http://www.salary.sg/2009/100-best-j...ingapore-2009/

Thanks for posting this cl0ver, very informative.

[xebay11]

xebay, so are you saying that you are not in this category?
are you a single income earner?
you seemed to be able to afford The Medley which appears to be sold at an average of 900psft.

tell us how you worked out the sum? I hope its not inherritance money or tio toto?

I am more established in career, started off with HDB in 1993, been through owning 99 y LH condo, so quite scared now, and yes also backed up by some old money, residential landed and industrial, all fully paid up. In spite of all this I too factor in chances of retrenchment or losing income.

[yowetan]

Hi Cl0ver,

Thanks for the information. Usually such data are extracted from the iras authority. I take this information as a pinch of salt and I doubt there are many singapoeans earning that figure. All the people surrounding me, including me myself are earning much lesser than the proclaimed 7kSGD, though we are professionals armed with good university degrees.

[amk]

Huh? You talk so much about market forces dictating the market in your long post, but your conclusion is that people are buying purely out of fear ie. when is the next crash? and fear of being priced out, somehow mitigates all you say about true market forces. I think nobody wants to bet with you on the next PSF level, if people don't buy it will collapse, why need stupid wager? You talk like PSF pricing is some magic number not subject to supply and demand. If developer really pay high and the market don't bite I bet prices will fall, want to take me on?

well I find it very hard to have a "peaceful" discussion in this place. Why so worked up ? I'm giving my opinion on the recent market run, and I think it's not without merit. You dun agree, it's ok. Present your thoughts. And let's talk about it.

Affordability is one key factor, complemented by the fear of price out, ( "miss the boat"), that is behind the recent mass market run. This is my thought.

You have the right to think all these people are stupid, and should not do it, and should wait for the market to correct 1st. You are entitled to this opinion.

There are plenty of reasons why people want to "squeeze" in a "tiny 1250sqft" condo rather than an 1500sqft HDB. "Value" of a space is not the same to every one.

"Stupid wager" ? My point was simply, at current market level, expecting a 580 below cost pricing is simply unrealistic. I guess without betting you yourself will have to agree that MCL project won't sell at $580.

Talk is easy. When you are a couple getting a home now, what would you do ? Say you have already waited out 2007, now you are 30 plus now. "Let's wait for the correction". Easier to say so. But your life will be very different in 3ys time. You need a good home for a family (or for a child to study peacefully). You have to make a decision. This is not coffee shop talkcock. This is for real for many people. You dun have the luxury to always time the market right, especially for home stay. How many 5ys do you have in your life ? This is the reason I dun simply dismiss all the buyers as being stupid.

For the business point of view, the entire supply/demand analysis is in the Citi/UBS reports, you can read and disagree. They indeed say the income level of Sporens are far better than 1997. And they predict a population growth (coming mostly from imports) that can maintain a demand for resale HDB and low end condos. In this forum I find it hard to present these figures as it seems members are more interested in opinions than these "market researches".

[august]

Talk is easy. When you are a couple getting a home now, what would you do ? Say you have already waited out 2007, now you are 30 plus now. "Let's wait for the correction". Easier to say so. But your life will be very different in 3ys time. You need a good home for a family (or for a child to study peacefully). You have to make a decision. This is not coffee shop talkcock. This is for real for many people. You dun have the luxury to always time the market right, especially for home stay. How many 5ys do you have in your life ? This is the reason I dun simply dismiss all the buyers as being stupid.

For the business point of view, the entire supply/demand analysis is in the Citi/UBS reports, you can read and disagree. They indeed say the income level of Sporens are far better than 1997. And they predict a population growth (coming mostly from imports) that can maintain a demand for resale HDB and low end condos. In this forum I find it hard to present these figures as it seems members are more interested in opinions than these "market researches".

i think for first home own-stay safer to get HDB ...

[xebay11]

Sorry if I sound heated but I worry for the new entrants, I think they really should go for alternatives such as HDB, prices are too high, those who are going in the market now better have their eyes wide open.

[Acer]

When they take up the loan, the loan form will request them to state their intention for purchasing the property - own-stay or investment.

who will state for investment?

interest rate higher

[yowetan]

Sorry if I sound heated but I worry for the new entrants, I think they really should go for alternatives such as HDB, prices are too high, those who are going in the market now better have their eyes wide open.

Hi xebay11,

Do you have any advices for new entrants like me? I am belonging to mid 30s and the "sandwich" class people. Do I need to pay an atrocious figure for a resales HDB?

[august]

Hi xebay11,

Do you have any advices for new entrants like me? I am belonging to mid 30s and the "sandwich" class people. Do I need to pay an atrocious figure for a resales HDB?

how about THe Peak (HDB BTO) at Toa Payoh? Going at $500psf, that is nearly half of Trevista's avg psf.

just seems better value for $$ to me

[xebay11]

Hi xebay11,

Do you have any advices for new entrants like me? I am belonging to mid 30s and the "sandwich" class people. Do I need to pay an atrocious figure for a resales HDB?

Resale prices are atrocious, so go for new and make your own pot of gold after 5 years. If not stay put, not everyone is lucky enough to go private property. If you buy a high resale value flat make sure it is 5 yo old type, at least you have chance of making some money too.