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Thread: Signs of speculation in private property market

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    Default Signs of speculation in private property market

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...445345/1/.html

    Signs of speculation in private property market

    By Mok Fei Fei, 938LIVE | Posted: 29 July 2009 1157 hrs


    SINGAPORE: The government is seeing some signs of speculation in the Singapore property market, according to National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan.

    Speaking on the sidelines of the topping out ceremony of the Marina Bay Financial Centre on Wednesday morning, Mr Mah said the government is monitoring the situation.

    He added that it is uncertain if the buying momentum seen in recent months can be sustained.

    "The forecast is still for negative growth this year. Although it's not as negative as it was in the beginning of the year. I think there is still uncertainty... But what is important really is for all of us, all the players in the market, to make sure that the market remains healthy," said Mr Mah.

    According to latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), sales of uncompleted private homes reached a record high of 1,825 units in June as improving sentiment in the market spurred homebuyers to snap up more units.

    Mr Mah assured that there is adequate supply of units in the market for now and the government is prepared to release more land for sale if necessary.

    On the Marina Bay Financial Centre, Mr Mah noted that it has already attracted over S$20 billion of private real estate investments from both local and international investors. About 61 per cent of space in the centre has been pre-leased.

    Mr Mah also reiterated the government's commitment to the project, saying another S$1 billion in infrastructure works will be invested over the next 10 to 15 years. The figure is on top of the S$7.5 billion already invested in Marina Bay.


    - 938LIVE/so

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    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...445345/1/.html

    Signs of speculation in private property market

    By Mok Fei Fei, 938LIVE | Posted: 29 July 2009 1157 hrs


    SINGAPORE: The government is seeing some signs of speculation in the Singapore property market, according to National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan.

    Speaking on the sidelines of the topping out ceremony of the Marina Bay Financial Centre on Wednesday morning, Mr Mah said the government is monitoring the situation.

    He added that it is uncertain if the buying momentum seen in recent months can be sustained.

    "The forecast is still for negative growth this year. Although it's not as negative as it was in the beginning of the year. I think there is still uncertainty... But what is important really is for all of us, all the players in the market, to make sure that the market remains healthy," said Mr Mah.

    According to latest data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), sales of uncompleted private homes reached a record high of 1,825 units in June as improving sentiment in the market spurred homebuyers to snap up more units.

    Mr Mah assured that there is adequate supply of units in the market for now and the government is prepared to release more land for sale if necessary.

    On the Marina Bay Financial Centre, Mr Mah noted that it has already attracted over S$20 billion of private real estate investments from both local and international investors. About 61 per cent of space in the centre has been pre-leased.

    Mr Mah also reiterated the government's commitment to the project, saying another S$1 billion in infrastructure works will be invested over the next 10 to 15 years. The figure is on top of the S$7.5 billion already invested in Marina Bay.


    - 938LIVE/so
    Actually the government already see situation much earlier.
    The plan by MOF to income tax on capital gain is an a delibrate attempt to curb the speculators after all! There maybe more curbs on the way.. look out for the news

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lucas
    Actually the government already see situation much earlier.
    The plan by MOF to income tax on capital gain is an a delibrate attempt to curb the speculators after all! There maybe more curbs on the way.. look out for the news
    of course they knew it much earlier ..

    come on bro ... the amt of stamp duty they collected from may to jul 2009 ..

    thank you very much, guess who's getting good bonus this year ..for the outstanding revenue in his ministry .... ??

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    why should all those working in revenue office get bonuses frm stamp duties that we pay? Any monkey can sit in those offices to do those minial tasks.
    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    of course they knew it much earlier ..

    come on bro ... the amt of stamp duty they collected from may to jul 2009 ..

    thank you very much, guess who's getting good bonus this year ..for the outstanding revenue in his ministry .... ??

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    I think they will probably just try to talk down the market in the meantime, since they wont want to appear an investors unfriendly.

    Seriously I cannot imagine ppl paying for >S$1000psf in suburban area. Frothy in mass market, but still ok in luxury/prime property?

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    Can we really trust those so-call property analysts who usually give their view in the media? They have been saying property price was not substainable since Feb 09 and they are still repeating the same thing today... I wont be surprise if they already picked up a few during this period

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lucas
    Can we really trust those so-call property analysts who usually give their view in the media? They have been saying property price was not substainable since Feb 09 and they are still repeating the same thing today... I wont be surprise if they already picked up a few during this period
    ANALYST = Anal + analyse least, analyse last

    hind sight trader .. go with the wind .. even if there one who writes something different from the rest, they always have a disclaimer at the end ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    why should all those working in revenue office get bonuses frm stamp duties that we pay? Any monkey can sit in those offices to do those minial tasks.

    precisely ...

    then again ..its the monkeys who voted them in , in the first place ...

    so who to blame ?

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    Quote Originally Posted by tamp81
    I think they will probably just try to talk down the market in the meantime, since they wont want to appear an investors unfriendly.

    Seriously I cannot imagine ppl paying for >S$1000psf in suburban area. Frothy in mass market, but still ok in luxury/prime property?
    Govt is not trying to talk down the market.

    Its more of the case that if the market really take a plunge, then they will say

    "Dun say you have not been warned"

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    talking about that, my wife who was a teacher before told me that the principal told all teachers to vote for the ruling party coz it was the gov that gave them the job. i thought that was pretty blatant but in any case, her area was a walkover....


    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    precisely ...

    then again ..its the monkeys who voted them in , in the first place ...

    so who to blame ?

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    Default Speculation creeping back into market: Mah

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...43872,00.html?

    Published July 30, 2009

    Speculation creeping back into market: Mah

    Govt will act if housing market overheats; supply pipeline is strong

    By EMILYN YAP


    (SINGAPORE) Speculation is trickling back into the property market and the government is watching the situation closely, National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said yesterday.

    The authorities will take action should the market overheat but home seekers should also be careful about making purchases, he underlined.

    'I wouldn't say that there is excessive speculation at the moment but there is some element of speculation involved,' Mr Mah told the press after the topping-out ceremony for Tower One at Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC).

    'Some of the practices and habits that you saw in the last property boom are beginning to come back.'

    Queues have started forming outside some showflats and property agents are reportedly armed with blank cheques from clients.

    Median prices have also gone up at some launches - by up to 7 per cent a month in a handful of cases. This has stemmed the fall in private home prices, with the Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) price index sliding 4.7 per cent in Q2 from a quarter ago - much less than the 14.1 per cent tumble it took in Q1.

    The question, though, is why a buying wave is forming when economic waters remain tepid. The slowdown has moderated but a contraction is still on Singapore's books, Mr Mah said.

    The official forecast now points to the economy shrinking 4-6 per cent this year.

    It is therefore unclear if the buying momentum is sustainable, he said. 'I'm not so sure whether the demand is due to pent-up demand, or whether it is due to buyers responding to lower prices by developers or even to the current low interest rates.'

    While it is premature to call it the start of a property bubble, the government is monitoring the market closely and will take 'whatever action is necessary', Mr Mah said.

    He also urged home seekers to research the property market thoroughly and seek affordable units.

    'Don't panic - because there is a lot of supply in the market.'

    According to URA, there were 62,350 uncompleted private homes from projects in the pipeline at the end of Q2. Of these, 38,482 units were still unsold.

    The government can also inject supply through the Government Land Sales (GLS) programme, Mr Mah said. It is considering whether it should reintroduce the confirmed list (suspended last October) for the first half of 2010.

    Responding to Mr Mah's comments, the Real Estate Developers Association of Singapore (Redas) said that developers share a 'common desire to see a steady growth, for greater stability and sustainability in the property market'.

    It also highlighted that not all property launches have been snapped up.

    'Only a selected few launches have been highly successful for various reasons. This could also be a result of pent-up demand.'

    Industry watchers saw Mr Mah's message as a signal against excess exuberance in the market. The move could have contributed to a fall among major property counters yesterday: City Developments lost 10 cents to close at $9.94, while CapitaLand shed six cents to $4.00.

    Colliers International's research and advisory director Tay Huey Ying felt that there is 'genuine concern' about the sustainability of current demand. Some buying has been driven by accumulated wealth from the boom years and when the funds dry up, it will take strong economic fundamentals to generate new demand, she said.

    But she also believes that the government will 'tread cautiously' when it comes to tempering market sentiment, because the pick-up has only begun and is fragile.

    Developer sales of private homes started to recover in February - interest first poured into mass-market projects and gradually filtered into mid- and high-end ones.

    Over the last month, for example, KOP Group sold 11 units at its luxury site The Hamilton Scotts, at prices ranging from $2,500 to $3,000 psf.

    Across liquidity-flush Asia, several economists have flagged the risk of property bubbles forming. However, many do not believe that policymakers will aggressively tighten measures when economic recovery remains nascent.

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    govt indirectly caused the mkt to fluctuate like crazy without regulating valuators out there or providing some kind of guidelines on how banks should value properties so who is to blame for people speculating in properties? It is like throwing a piece of meat into a den of hungry dogs and when the dogs start fighting over the meat, the dogs get punished for that.....

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    ....Also look at the obscene profits HBD residents in East Coast, Queenstown, Holland, Bt Merah, Tiong Bahru etc are making due to the obscenely high HDB valuations given for those areas. An agent sold a Meiling street flat valued at $780k for $710k and the owner still pocketed a few hundred thousand dollars of profit. What gives HDB valuators the impression that Meiling street should be worth so much just becoz some stupid old retiree wont mind paying $890k for an HDB flat in that area just to live his final days there (coz he cant bring his money into the grave anyway).

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    Default Mah sounds warning on property buzz

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Prime%2B...ry_409847.html

    July 30, 2009 Thursday

    Mah sounds warning on property buzz

    Government will take action if excessive speculation develops

    By Jessica Cheam


    THE Government will take 'whatever action necessary' to prevent excessive speculation in the property market, said National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan yesterday.

    Mr Mah's note of caution comes amid a buying frenzy that has gripped the real estate sector in recent months.

    He told the media on the sidelines of an industry event: 'I wouldn't say there is excessive speculation at the moment, but there is some element of speculation involved.

    'Some of the practices and habits that you saw in the last property boom are beginning to come back, so I think we'll have to be careful.'

    He also warned about a property bubble forming. 'Obviously it is not in our interest for such a bubble to form, because when it does, and bursts, which it inevitably must, then I think a lot of people will get hurt,' said the minister, adding that all parties concerned must ensure that such a bubble does not materialise.

    'A little bit of speculation is inevitable in every market, but when it becomes excessive, then it is something that we should try to avoid.'

    There are certainly signs of a red-hot market, including queues forming days before the launch of a new project.

    Suburban condo Optima, next to the Tanah Merah MRT, drew lines snaking outside the showflat on Monday, though the unit does not open until tomorrow.

    Real estate agents were also in the queues with blank cheques from clients.

    Buyers at Ang Mo Kio were equally keen to put their money down at the 329-unit Centro Residences, reportedly paying $1,150 per sq ft, a price level typically seen in central districts.

    Mr Mah said the Government was monitoring the market but added that it was uncertain if the activity is due to pent-up demand or generated by buyers responding to lower prices or low interest rates.

    'It is in all our interest that the market is a healthy, sustainable one,' he said.

    Property veteran Nicholas Mak, former head of research at Knight Frank, agreed that the key is sustainability of demand: 'Although now it seems it's a bit too much and too fast, with buying volume growing at an unsustainable rate.'

    Speculation is on the rise, with the number of subsales in the second quarter at 940 compared with 412 in the first quarter of this year, he noted.

    Mr Mah yesterday called on buyers to do their homework: Research prices, study information on upcoming supply and check data from the Urban Redevelopment Authority's website. 'Don't commit right up to the hilt...think about what if interest rates rise in the future, would you still be able to afford it?' he said.

    He emphasised that there was plenty of supply in the pipeline: Of 62,350 uncompleted units of private homes, about 38,482 units remain.

    The minister also announced that the confirmed list of sites in the Government's land sales programme could be reinstated if supply is needed.

    The Real Estate Developers Association of Singapore backed up Mr Mah's comments that a bubble should not form.

    It pointed out last night that not all the property launches have been snapped up. Only a select few have been highly successful for various reasons. This could also be a result of pent-up demand.

    [email protected]

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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    govt indirectly caused the mkt to fluctuate like crazy without regulating valuators out there or providing some kind of guidelines on how banks should value properties so who is to blame for people speculating in properties? It is like throwing a piece of meat into a den of hungry dogs and when the dogs start fighting over the meat, the dogs get punished for that.....
    I been saying this so many times.

    ***IF YOU HAPPENED TO BE A VALUATOR READING THIS, PLEASE GO TELL YOUR GANG TO WAIT UP YOUR F**K IDEA!***
    Silversea you match 1600psf? AMK 1000psf? Yio Chua Kio 900psf? Think of the outcome, you can forget your condo dreams too.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    I been saying this so many times.

    ***IF YOU HAPPENED TO BE A VALUATOR READING THIS, PLEASE GO TELL YOUR GANG TO WAIT UP YOUR F**K IDEA!***
    Silversea you match 1600psf? AMK 1000psf? Yio Chua Kio 900psf? Think of the outcome, you can forget your condo dreams too.
    Pai seh, not mean for you. It's for valuator.

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    [quote=Regulators]talking about that, my wife who was a teacher before told me that the principal told all teachers to vote for the ruling party coz it was the gov that gave them the job. i thought that was pretty blatant but in any case, her area was a walkover....[/quo

    now that shes no longer teaching .. if i was her, i would write to forum . and asked the MOE for their view, if it was right of the principal to pull votes like that

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    [quote=proud owner]
    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    talking about that, my wife who was a teacher before told me that the principal told all teachers to vote for the ruling party coz it was the gov that gave them the job. i thought that was pretty blatant but in any case, her area was a walkover....[/quo

    now that shes no longer teaching .. if i was her, i would write to forum . and asked the MOE for their view, if it was right of the principal to pull votes like that
    Wow, so envy. Teacher wife.

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    [quote=mr funny]Published July 30, 2009

    Speculation creeping back into market: Mah

    Govt will act if housing market overheats; supply pipeline is strong

    By EMILYN YAP


    It is therefore unclear if the buying momentum is sustainable, he said. 'I'm not so sure whether the demand is due to pent-up demand, or whether it is due to buyers responding to lower prices by developers or even to the current low interest rates.'

    quote]



    he is an idiot smirky 5 ft nothing

    he is not sure :
    is it pent up demand
    are buyers lured by lower prices
    low interest rates

    what the hell ?

    how can prices be lower when psf is higher ?
    compare a 1500 sqft in the same location in Jan and now ..which is more expensive ?

    low interest rates
    have banks paid us higher interest before ? SGD interest rates have never been any higher


    these 2 parts are known to him, or the entire govt .. how can he claim he is unsure ?


    he is using the same tactics as he did when in LTA ..

    Launch a new ERP gantry during school holiday and then claim ERP worked perfectly in controlling traffic ..

    cant help but feel his earlier statement that there was no speculations was to help developers get rid of old stocks

    now most are cleared ..couple with china's loan issue , then he lan lan make a reverse statement

    slap his face , short man ( shorter than his ang mo wife) very cunning

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    [quote=Property_Owner]
    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner

    Wow, so envy. Teacher wife.

    i envy those whose wife is nurse

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    HDB release new HDB flats near Punggol MRT. 114sqm 5-room flat from 344-405k ... if you buy, must sell 500k 7 years later to profit liao ... subsidized premium apartment so called ... FEO can also say Centros is premium loh
    Last edited by jitkiat; 30-07-09 at 11:42.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    HDB release new HDB flats near Punggol MRT. 114sqm 5-room flat from 344-405k ... if you buy, must sell 500k 7 years later to profit liao
    in 1992- 1994 a maisonette in hougang cost 168k , about 1800 sqft

    i applied couldnt get, ballot always no luck

    then they started Q system and i went in automatically
    waited and waited until maisonette cost 460k and smaller ..

    why ?
    becos they announced Punggol 21 project

    all of a sudden Punggol became the Orchard rd of the heartlanders
    everyone was applying and prices chiong

    plus renov would have cost me over 500k
    to me really not worth it .. so i bought a condo instead

    1281 sqft 600k

    soon market crash .. (gulf war ? )

    all pulled out ..
    HDB had to arrange free transport to take people to view HDB ...ahahaha

    Punggol 21 project was shelved .. (still)

    and how much is a maisonette there now ??

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    Punggol 5room flats now easily can sell at $400+k. By the way, I have a friend who bought direct from HDB a Queenstown 4 room HDB at $250k in 2006. Think its named Forfar Heights, very near Queenstown MRT station and is opposite Queens Condo. Currently, I believe currently his 4 room unit easily worth more than 500+k. Just 3 years and his valuation doubled! He still has 2 years to cash out on his unit by fulfilling hi 5yrs of stay. HDB prices has risen by a lot this 2-3 years... especially in matured estates like Queestown, Bt Merah, Tiong Bahru...

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    i find mr mah comments contradicting, land & 'public hseing' are sold by garberment, so they should know they have indirectly set a minimum starting price.

    when private developers start selling DBSS e.g crossing half million ~ 722k why didnt he comment it's speculation? yet income cap at 8k.

    maybe just like what blackswan said "Dun say you have not been warned" but happily collecting stamps duties or felt guilty collecting too much when there is a recession going on. haha

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    Quote Originally Posted by maisonjai
    i find mr mah comments contradicting, land & 'public hseing' are sold by garberment, so they should know they have indirectly set a minimum starting price.

    when private developers start selling DBSS e.g crossing half million ~ 722k why didnt he comment it's speculation? yet income cap at 8k.

    maybe just like what blackswan said "Dun say you have not been warned" but happily collecting stamps duties or felt guilty collecting too much when there is a recession going on. haha
    He knows how much the developer bid for the land (Centro)in AMK right? So, does it come as a surprise if the developer sells at >$1000 psf? If government want to stop, they should not award that piece of land to the highest bidder!
    Then again, in some cases, if the bid for the land submitted is too low, the government will not award...

    So, back and fore, true and false, yes and no.... still come back to the original position that the government is always right!

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    [quote=proud owner]
    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner


    i envy those whose wife is nurse

    Why? Do you think they will be caring? Or you like role play...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lucas
    He knows how much the developer bid for the land (Centro)in AMK right? So, does it come as a surprise if the developer sells at >$1000 psf? If government want to stop, they should not award that piece of land to the highest bidder!
    Then again, in some cases, if the bid for the land submitted is too low, the government will not award...

    So, back and fore, true and false, yes and no.... still come back to the original position that the government is always right!
    I am waiting for them to release more land cheaply... Then I can finally look out for real bargain... in 3 years time?

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    [quote=vin002]
    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner


    Why? Do you think they will be caring? Or you like role play...

    role play is good ... helps one developes his brain .. its healthy and encouraged ..

    i would like to be a Doctor...

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    teacher wife got plus n minus lah. Plus is do things very systematically, minus is sometimes talk to u like u r her student.[QUOTE=Property_Owner]
    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner

    Wow, so envy. Teacher wife.

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    you r right, it is a topdown effect, gov sell land at high n dev have no choice but to price cndo high after factoring in cnstructn cost etc. ascentia sky is 1 such example where dev needs about 1kpsf to breakeven. CDL who bought farrer court at a high will have to sell their project there at 1500psf at least i thk. If there is any pty bubble it is created by the gov themselves. 
    Quote Originally Posted by Lucas
    He knows how much the developer bid for the land (Centro)in AMK right? So, does it come as a surprise if the developer sells at >$1000 psf? If government want to stop, they should not award that piece of land to the highest bidder!
    Then again, in some cases, if the bid for the land submitted is too low, the government will not award...

    So, back and fore, true and false, yes and no.... still come back to the original position that the government is always right!

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