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Thread: Home supply pipeline shrinks, prices stiffen

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    Default Home supply pipeline shrinks, prices stiffen

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...43241,00.html?

    Published July 25, 2009

    Home supply pipeline shrinks, prices stiffen

    However, URA price index for private homes still shows fall in Q2, confounding analysts

    By KALPANA RASHIWALA


    (Singapore)

    LATEST government numbers are offering clues as to why some developers are busy looking for land and nudging up home prices. The supply pipeline for private homes has shrunk, from about 71,600 units at end-Q2 last year to 62,600 units as at end-Q2 2009. The stock of unsold units in uncompleted projects with planning approvals has also contracted from about 43,500 units to around 38,500 units over the same period.

    Developers had not acquired much residential land over the past year or so in the aftermath of the financial crisis but have enjoyed a spectacular revival in home sales over the past six months. Lately, however, two sites from the government reserve list were triggered for launch by developers.

    Developers have also regained some pricing power of late. Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) price index for private homes fell 4.7 per cent in Q2 over the preceding quarter. The fall was less steep than the 5.9 per cent decline for the period that URA's flash estimate had shown earlier this month. The latest decline is also much less than the 14.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter price drop in Q1. While a debate rages on why URA's Q2 price index lags the price gains seen in the market during the period, property consultants are expecting further price increases in the current half.

    'But we're not going to see runaway prices as there will be price resistance from buyers, especially in the upgraders market as there's the issue of affordability,' says Knight Frank chairman Tan Tiong Cheng. 'Developers will be mindful of competition from the secondary market as new projects are completed. From a consumer's viewpoint, if prices get too high, they could either give the market a miss or look for alternatives - like picking up a home from earlier investors who can afford to sell below developers' prices,' he said.

    'There's another reason why prices are unlikely to run away, at least not in the mass market - and that's because the government has, under its reserve list, a substantial supply of land for this segment,' Mr Tan added.

    Giving a more bullish take, Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh says private home prices started to turn in April/May and estimates that depending on market segment, prices have increased anywhere between 15 and 30 per cent from the bottom in Q1. He forecasts the total increase between April and year-end could be in the order of 20 to 60 per cent, with the biggest hikes in the high-end segment. 'So far, the home buying has been led mainly by Singaporeans and PRs. When foreigners and institutional funds buy in a bigger way, then momentum in the high-end residential sector will receive a boost.'

    URA's real estate data yesterday showed a 79 per cent quarter-on-quarter jump in private home sales by developers to 4,654 units in Q2 - the third highest quarterly figure on record, according to CB Richard Ellis (CBRE). Significantly, there was a more even spread of sales across the regions in Q2, unlike Q1, when developer sales were concentrated in the Outside Central Region (OCR), where mass-market suburban condos are located.

    In Q2, the Core Central Region (CCR), which includes the prime districts 9, 10 and 11, financial district and Sentosa Cove, accounted for 31.2 per cent of homes sold by developers. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) had a 39.2 per cent share, thanks to projects such as 8 @ Woodleigh, The Arte, The Mezzo and Vista Residences; while OCR's share was 29.6 per cent. The housing recovery is filtering up.

    The momentum of sales in the secondary market was also strong, with 3,059 units sold in the resale market in Q2, almost three times the 1,144 units in Q1. Subsale deals more than doubled from 412 in Q1 to 940 in Q2. In the residential leasing market, 10,327 leases were contracted in the April-June period, 7.8 per cent above the 9,579 leases done in Jan-March, CBRE said. With more expats being hired on local terms or smaller housing allowances, rents continued to slide in Q2, albeit more moderately.

    http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/text/2009/pr09-43.html


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    Default Next year may not see oversupply of homes

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Prime%2B...ry_407645.html

    July 25, 2009 Saturday

    Next year may not see oversupply of homes

    By Melissa Tan


    GLUT? What glut? Fears of an oversupply of private homes next year have eased - in fact there could even be a shortage.

    The Urban Redevelopment Authority's (URA) second quarter real estate statistics, released yesterday, suggest any potential oversupply has been pushed back to 2011 or even later as private property developers delay and cut down on projects.

    The number of private homes slated for completion for the whole of next year has fallen sharply to just 5,394.

    That is down about 70 per cent from an estimated 17,454 early last year at the height of the last boom.

    Just as developers have cut back on building, home buying has shot back up to boom-time levels.

    For the past three months, more than 1,000 private homes have been sold each month. An average of 8,000 private homes have been sold each year since 2000.

    This means that private home prices and rents could rise next year, as the supply of private property units in 2010 may not meet demand, especially if the current strong sales streak keeps up.

    Caveats apply, of course, market watchers say. URA's statistics rely on figures that developers have provided, and dramatic changes from quarter to quarter have occurred before.

    Also, the number of completed units could differ from the number sold, as developers could sell uncompleted units or be unable to sell completed units.

    According to URA statistics, during the last boom in 2007 and last year, developers - confident that people would snap up private homes - obtained licences to sell 11,150 private homes set to be finished this year, and 9,188 homes in 2010.

    But the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September and the resulting recession triggered fears last year that there would be too many private homes on the market next year amid an economic slowdown.

    Concerned that units would not sell, developers have since slashed some projects and pushed back the completion dates of others. As a result, URA's figure for the total planned units slated for completion this year and beyond has fallen by 6,000 - from over 68,000 in the first quarter of 2008 to the current 62,350.

    But although almost all of URA's projected completion figures have declined gradually over the period from the third quarter of last year to the first quarter this year, the slide shows signs of having just bottomed out.

    In the third quarter of last year it was projected that around 13,400-16,000 units would be completed every year after 2010. This fell to a range of 12,100-13,900 in the fourth quarter and then to 10,900-13,800 last quarter.

    Although it still remains below pre-recession levels, this range has risen slightly in the last quarter to 11,200-13,600 units every year from 2011 onwards.

    The bulk of project completions has been shifted from next year to 2011 and later, with project completion figures increasing by an average of 350 for each year from last quarter's figures.

    To date, 5,158 private units have been finished in the first half of this year, and URA expects 1,051 more units to be ready within the next six months.


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    Default 180% turn

    Very unnerving....this whole supply story making an about turn.

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    Yes. Pls buy now!
    There is no longer any oversupply!!!

    Prices are set to run!
    Don't hesitate any longer or prices will just pass you by as they did in 2007!!!

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    those who buy now joins the Q of oversupply in 2011 and beyond....

    so constructions going into boom time again.... BUY construction stocks...

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    can't developers just conspire together to report that most of their projects will TOP in 2011 and further? create this news for more sales now then next year report faster than expected completion in 2010 and a lot more supply coming from those who bought this year, then cause prices to fall and they can buy land cheap again?...and the cycle continues...



    Quote Originally Posted by Localite
    Very unnerving....this whole supply story making an about turn.

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    Default Supply shortage

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    can't developers just conspire together to report that most of their projects will TOP in 2011 and further? create this news for more sales now then next year report faster than expected completion in 2010 and a lot more supply coming from those who bought this year, then cause prices to fall and they can buy land cheap again?...and the cycle continues...
    Good point. Actually they can conspire not just to report but actually create a shortage. But if you are at this point where the economy rebounds from a historical contraction, and there is imminent short supply next year, then it is very tempting to jump in and ignore the post 2010 situation......

    One thing is clear to me, in Singapore developers have a lot of control over this matter!

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    There is a type of property confirm will never have oversupply - landed properties.

    I have already learned my lesson.

    The Government's itchy hand likes to increase plot ratios and flood the whole market with thousand-storey condos, but let's see whether they can do that with landed properties ...


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    Quote Originally Posted by Localite
    One thing is clear to me, in Singapore developers have a lot of control over this matter!
    That is an understatement.

    Developers & valuers had a close door session not too long ago.
    I rub your cb, you rub my kkj?

    http://luxuryasiahome.wordpress.com/...common-ground/

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    There is a type of property confirm will never have oversupply - landed properties.

    I have already learned my lesson.

    The Government's itchy hand likes to increase plot ratios and flood the whole market with thousand-storey condos, but let's see whether they can do that with landed properties ...

    they can ... ever seen landed got enbloc-ed ? and they build condo ?

    2 kind of landed .. designated and non designated ..
    designated area for landed will forever be landed ...

    non designated landed area .. the landed can be mass sold and then turn into condo ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    they can ... ever seen landed got enbloc-ed ? and they build condo ?

    2 kind of landed .. designated and non designated ..
    designated area for landed will forever be landed ...

    non designated landed area .. the landed can be mass sold and then turn into condo ...
    When landed got enbloc-ed and turn into condos, that means the supply of landed properties has decreased (hence will not have oversupply but only undersupply).

    We only see landed properties enbloc-ed and turned into condos, but never see condos turned into landed properties.

    So it is a one way street.

    There will be fewer and fewer landed properties around as the non-designated landed areas turn into condos.

    And with more and more Jet Lis, Gong Lis and Jim Rogers coming to Singapore, the demand for landed homes will be greater. While the supply keeps shrinking due to redevelopment into condos.

    The only risk facing the supply of landed properties is if our Government uses the SAF to militarily expand our country.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    When landed got enbloc-ed and turn into condos, that means the supply of landed properties has decreased (hence will not have oversupply but only undersupply).

    We only see landed properties enbloc-ed and turned into condos, but never see condos turned into landed properties.

    So it is a one way street.

    There will be fewer and fewer landed properties around as the non-designated landed areas turn into condos.

    And with more and more Jet Lis, Gong Lis and Jim Rogers coming to Singapore, the demand for landed homes will be greater. While the supply keeps shrinking due to redevelopment into condos.

    The only risk facing the supply of landed properties is if our Government uses the SAF to militarily expand our country.
    so if buying landed make sure buy designated landed area only ..

    you really dont want your exclusive landed house to have a condo next to yuo ..

    which is happening now in many locations

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    so if buying landed make sure buy designated landed area only ..

    you really dont want your exclusive landed house to have a condo next to yuo ..

    which is happening now in many locations
    Actually may not be a bad thing.

    Could be a windfall.

    Then with the extra money can upgrade to a bigger landed property.

    Now many people are looking for old properties to tear down and rebuild, especially those old semi-Ds which are more than 400 sqm and can be converted into bungalows.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Actually may not be a bad thing.

    Could be a windfall.

    Then with the extra money can upgrade to a bigger landed property.

    Now many people are looking for old properties to tear down and rebuild, especially those old semi-Ds which are more than 400 sqm and can be converted into bungalows.
    i do not understand why those 4500 sqft land semi Ds want to 'detach' themselves and convert to bungalow ..

    if its only 4500 sqft ..PLEAZZZZ .. it will be a cramp bungalow

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    it is easy to understand, it is all about status
    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i do not understand why those 4500 sqft land semi Ds want to 'detach' themselves and convert to bungalow ..

    if its only 4500 sqft ..PLEAZZZZ .. it will be a cramp bungalow

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    Quote Originally Posted by franzmark
    it is easy to understand, it is all about status
    bro .. honestly i cant see much status on a detached on a 4500 sqft land .. i have seen corner terrace on 8000 sqft land .. thats even better ..


    there are so many semi Ds on 4500 sqft land ... i am eyeing a detached on a 8000 sqft land alot on Faber Hill

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    Quote Originally Posted by franzmark
    it is easy to understand, it is all about status
    bro .. honestly i cant see much status on a detached on a 4500 sqft land .. i have seen corner terrace on 8000 sqft land .. thats even better ..


    there are so many semi Ds on 4500 sqft land ... i am eyeing a detached on a 8000 sqft land alot on Faber Hill
    Of course if can afford a "real bungalow" that would be the best ... otherwise, 4500 sf "pseudo bungalow" also not bad lah ...

    8000 sf at Faber Hill will cost at least $4 million, whereas the semi-D featured in The Edge at 30, Walmer Drive (4907 sf) only around $2 million ... half the price.

    I think owning a bungalow ... whether "real" or "pseudo" ... is the dream of everyone in Singapore.

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    The like of foreigners or even PRs like Jet Li, Jim Rogers can only buy Good Class Bungalows lah. PRs need special permission from SLA before they can buy landed and they must be able to show contributions to the country. On the other hand, Most Singaporeans have no ability to buy landed because too expensive in absolute amount vs condo in same vicinity and also many actually prefer high-rise buildings (don't have to deal with rats, mosquitoes, houseflies, snakes and other creepy creatures creeping into the ground floor of landed property!). Thus, while landed getting less, there are also much less people able to buy and wanting to buy.

    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    When landed got enbloc-ed and turn into condos, that means the supply of landed properties has decreased (hence will not have oversupply but only undersupply).

    We only see landed properties enbloc-ed and turned into condos, but never see condos turned into landed properties.

    So it is a one way street.

    There will be fewer and fewer landed properties around as the non-designated landed areas turn into condos.

    And with more and more Jet Lis, Gong Lis and Jim Rogers coming to Singapore, the demand for landed homes will be greater. While the supply keeps shrinking due to redevelopment into condos.

    The only risk facing the supply of landed properties is if our Government uses the SAF to militarily expand our country.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    (don't have to deal with rats, mosquitoes, houseflies, snakes and other creepy creatures creeping into the ground floor of landed property!)
    That's the reason for me not staying landed.

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    Same experience here and I know the pains and frustrations of having to deal with all these creepy creatures. I even found centipedes and even scorpions creeping in from the garden.

    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    That's the reason for me not staying landed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Same experience here and I know the pains and frustrations of having to deal with all these creepy creatures. I even found centipedes and even scorpions creeping in from the garden.
    I had gotten malaria once. Doc had advice me.

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    Ops, that is really bad. Don't understand why the mosquitoes spread Malaria so easily nowsadays compared to 20-40 years ago. When young, we had been bitten left right centre by the mosquitoes but no problem, no malaria, no serious infection/wounds from the bites. Nowsdays, the young seem to be easily vulnerable to malaria and infections and serious wounds arising from mosquitoes' bites. May be in olden days we were bitten so much until we develop immunity?

    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    I had gotten malaria once. Doc had advice me.

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    Wa.. you guys make landed living sound so scary ..like living in jungle..

    Why angmoh like it so much hor..

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    The new comers ang moh like it because they are used to it and they thought they are living like in their home country with temperate weather. But hor, after that, many will start to convert to condo life style because they start to realize that Singapore is in tropical whereas they are used to living in temperate where they don't have mosquitoes, houseflies, scorpions, centipedes and even difficult to find rats in their house in temperate climate.

    Quote Originally Posted by focus
    Wa.. you guys make landed living sound so scary ..like living in jungle..

    Why angmoh like it so much hor..

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    On the other hand, Most Singaporeans have no ability to buy landed because too expensive in absolute amount vs condo in same vicinity and also many actually prefer high-rise buildings (don't have to deal with rats, mosquitoes, houseflies, snakes and other creepy creatures creeping into the ground floor of landed property!). Thus, while landed getting less, there are also much less people able to buy and wanting to buy.

    Same experience here and I know the pains and frustrations of having to deal with all these creepy creatures. I even found centipedes and even scorpions creeping in from the garden.
    Wow! Where got so many types of animals? I have only seen mosquitoes, houseflies and centipedes, but not rats, snakes or scorpions.

    The Ang Mo countries have even worse animals, I see in YouTube their garage spiders like Black Widows and Tarantulas ...

    Landed houses is a "state of the mind". In a land scarce country like Singapore, owning a landed house is equivalent to "having arrived". On the other hand, owning a landed house in a large country like Malaysia or Australia has no special significance.

    Everyone in Singapore aspires to own a landed property. "Not able to buy" is different from "Not wanting to buy". For example, I am "not able to buy" a Good Class Bungalow but that does not mean I "don't want to buy". See the house below ... Who doesn't want a house like that?


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    Have not seen doesn't mean there isn't, takes time to appear and will get more and more. Black Widows? Never heard that they ever appear in temperate developed countries. Youtube can trust meh?
    Able to buy landed doesn't mean have to buy landed - That billionaire Indian prefer to buy The Sail Penthouse than Good Class Bungalow. Many others are the same. Landed actually cheaper than condos in terms of PSF in same vicinity, but people buying condos in Singapore prefer to pay more than going for the cheapskate.

    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    Wow! Where got so many types of animals? I have only seen mosquitoes, houseflies and centipedes, but not rats, snakes or scorpions.

    The Ang Mo countries have even worse animals, I see in YouTube their garage spiders like Black Widows and Tarantulas ...

    Landed houses is a "state of the mind". In a land scarce country like Singapore, owning a landed house is equivalent to "having arrived". On the other hand, owning a landed house in a large country like Malaysia or Australia has no special significance.

    Everyone in Singapore aspires to own a landed property. "Not able to buy" is different from "Not wanting to buy". For example, I am "not able to buy" a Good Class Bungalow but that does not mean I "don't want to buy". See the house below ... Who doesn't want a house like that?


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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Have not seen doesn't mean there isn't, takes time to appear and will get more and more. Black Widows? Never heard that they ever appear in temperate developed countries. Youtube can trust meh?
    Able to buy landed doesn't mean have to buy landed - That billionaire Indian prefer to buy The Sail Penthouse than Good Class Bungalow. Many others are the same. Landed actually cheaper than condos in terms of PSF in same vicinity, but people buying condos in Singapore prefer to pay more than going for the cheapskate.
    Here got one poisonous spider ...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nqvdQeb5RB8

    That Dr. Gupta has a reason for staying in condo ... more security.

    Came to S'pore after Moscow shooting
    DR Gupta escaped an assassination attempt in Moscow in 2002. He was celebrating his 44th birthday in a restaurant when contract killers shot at his car and killed his driver.
    He had asked his driver to take the flowers and gifts back to his house, and return to pick him up later.
    The next day, Dr Gupta, his wife and daughter fled Moscow.
    They flew to London and agonised over what to do for one month before he decided to relocate his family to Singapore.
    The [email protected] and other new condos have one big problem - i.e. not enough parking lots.

    Surely someone who can afford a million-dollar apartment can afford more than one car. At least one for the husband and one for the wife.

    I see this as a potential future problem as more and more old condos with huge car parks are en-bloced and turned into new condos with insufficient lots. The [email protected] has only 700 parking lots for 1,111 units. How ah? Not even enough for its own residents, not to mention visitors e.g during Chinese New Year.

    However, there should not be a problem for landed houses because can park two cars plus outside on the road side.

    The Straits Times
    Wed, Sep 10, 2008

    You've got a home...but does your car?

    By Serene Luo, Tan Wei Zhao and Stephanie Song

    Home owners looking to buy a condominium within the next few years may soon find themselves in a squeeze when it comes to parking their cars at home.

    A Straits Times survey of 26 condominiums launched or built after 2005 showed carparks are getting smaller, with some even falling below a government standard of at least one lot per unit.

    About 50 per cent of the condominiums surveyed will have just one lot for each unit - plus not more than 5 per cent of extra lots - when completed.

    The situation is more pronounced in the city. At least three new developments - The Sail @ Marina Bay, Marina Bay Residences and Icon in Tanjong Pagar - have between 20 per cent and 40 per cent fewer lots than units.


    In comparison, a survey of about 10 condos built between 1980 and 2000 showed they were more generous, with over 50 per cent of them giving at least 15 per cent more leeway for lots.

    For instance, Kembangan's Windy Heights, which was completed around 1978, has 274 lots to its 202 units - about 36 per cent more lots than units.

    In comparison, The Sail @ Marina Bay will have 700 lots for its 1,111 units - but only because it has "direct access to MRT stations, Raffles Place and is within walking distance to many workplaces and amenities", said a spokesman for the developer CDL."
    "Direct access to MRT stations" and "Within walking distance to many workplaces" doesn't mean that there is no need to have a car to drive around to other parts of Singapore.

    What a stupid comment.

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Have not seen doesn't mean there isn't, takes time to appear and will get more and more. Black Widows? Never heard that they ever appear in temperate developed countries. Youtube can trust meh?
    Able to buy landed doesn't mean have to buy landed - That billionaire Indian prefer to buy The Sail Penthouse than Good Class Bungalow. Many others are the same. Landed actually cheaper than condos in terms of PSF in same vicinity, but people buying condos in Singapore prefer to pay more than going for the cheapskate.
    That Indian can't buy Landed lah... Only citizen can buy GCB... otherwise he won't be overpaying for his PH. Why pay $15M to share the lift with the other 1000+ units? And also have only 1 parking lot???

    Landed px is lower on a psf basis as mostly a local mkt, n not played up by foreigners. But that doesn't mean it is not a good investment. U can ask your parents & their friends who have bought FH landed in the 1970s or 1980s in average to popular areas don't even need to be in GCB or D9,10,11 what is the value of their landed hse now?

    Likewise u ask the same group those that bought LH 99 condo then, what is the value of their houses now?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jc
    That Indian can't buy Landed lah... Only citizen can buy GCB... otherwise he won't be overpaying for his PH. Why pay $15M to share the lift with the other 1000+ units? And also have only 1 parking lot???

    Landed px is lower on a psf basis as mostly a local mkt, n not played up by foreigners. But that doesn't mean it is not a good investment. U can ask your parents & their friends who have bought FH landed in the 1970s or 1980s in average to popular areas don't even need to be in GCB or D9,10,11 what is the value of their landed hse now?

    Likewise u ask the same group those that bought LH 99 condo then, what is the value of their houses now?
    Unless it is en-bloced properties like Farrer Court or Grangeford.

    These properties have the same characteristic as landed properties: huge land, redevelopment potential.

    These are the most rewarding to invest, provided you have the holding power.

    The worst are new properties bought directly from developers.

    The juice had already been squeezed out (profit for the previous enblockers + profit for developers). Even in a super bull run, they increase by at most 20% to 30% (Frankly I don't know why those people are queueing up for?)

    Old landed houses and enbloc potential condos have the ability to return more than 100%. Even in bad times, they are able to hold better.

    Look out for old houses or condos with huge land and lots of trees. Do you see money there?

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    Look out for old houses or condos with huge land and lots of trees. Do you see money there?

    Oh.. the one at East Coast ... Mandarin Gardens or something like that.. FREAKING BIG..

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