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Thread: How to tell when the property market is going into a downtrend again?

  1. #1
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    Default How to tell when the property market is going into a downtrend again?

    When every single mutha****ing agent and his sister starts calling you, emailing you, sms-ing you on just about every different condo from just about every single part of Singapore.

    the only time my mailboxes have been spammed with such volume is during Nov thru Jan.

    People, BEWARE. Think before you buy. Do not get suckered.

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    just like stock mkt, pty market also got dead kitty bounce mah ~

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    but when you were last spammed it was the bottom right? (Nov thru Jan) So now that you are getting the same again (Jul), you are implying that this is the peak? how do you tell the difference?


    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    When every single mutha****ing agent and his sister starts calling you, emailing you, sms-ing you on just about every different condo from just about every single part of Singapore.

    the only time my mailboxes have been spammed with such volume is during Nov thru Jan.

    People, BEWARE. Think before you buy. Do not get suckered.

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    Quote Originally Posted by august
    just like stock mkt, pty market also got dead kitty bounce mah ~
    dead cat dun bounce, they are lying on the floor

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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    dead cat dun bounce, they are lying on the floor
    yesterday was the QUIETEST day in this forum ...WHY ?

    the tax news thingy ..suddenly nobody dared to be bullish ...

    Now the tax thingy got clarified .. i can see so much more input in the forum again ...


    ahhaha

    i will take gfoo's comment really seriously

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    yesterday was the QUIETEST day in this forum ...WHY ?

    the tax news thingy ..suddenly nobody dared to be bullish ...

    Now the tax thingy got clarified .. i can see so much more input in the forum again ...


    ahhaha

    i will take gfoo's comment really seriously
    thot ytd forum is as buoyant as ever?

    want to curb speculation just raise stamp duty lah...

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    btw...

    Hiring expectations up for first time since first quarter of 2007
    By Tang See Kit, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 09 July 2009 2052 hrs
    Photos 1 of 1
    Office workers are seen during a lunch break at the financial district in Singapore



    SINGAPORE: The job market in Singapore is poised for a turnaround as more employers plan to add to their headcount in the next three months on expectations that business will pick up next year.

    This is the first time that hiring expectations have improved since the first quarter of 2007.

    A survey by recruitment firm Hudson showed that 26 per cent of executives surveyed expect more hiring this quarter, an increase from last quarter's 20 per cent.

    This comes after a period of rising unemployment and pay cuts due to the global financial crisis.

    Hiring expectations are up in almost every sector, with the healthcare and life sciences sector showing the best record. The only sector that posted a slight decrease in hiring expectations is the media, PR and advertising sector.

    At the same time, plans to cut back on jobs have declined as well, with only 14 per cent of respondents saying they will do so, compared to 19 per cent in the last quarter.

    Close to 60 per cent of those polled also said that they will keep headcount steady for this quarter.

    23 per cent of respondents believe that employee motivation, retention and career development will be among the key challenges that companies will face over the next year.

    This is because they foresee employers facing difficulties in retaining key staff when the economy recovers.

    Future prospects for the region's economy also showed signs of optimism. A majority of 77 per cent polled expect Asia's economy to start recovering by the end of next year.

    This quarterly survey by recruitment firm Hudson polled 700 executives from all key business sectors in May this year. - CNA/vm

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    Quote Originally Posted by august
    thot ytd forum is as buoyant as ever?

    want to curb speculation just raise stamp duty lah...
    BAD suggestion ! BAD suggestion !

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    I think people fail to see the seriousness of irrational exhuberance in today's market. You get pressured by sentiment and salestalk and buy wo underlying fundamentals. Then comes a scare and i tell you, the whole situation will drop like a rock when everybody starts jumping. I'd rather the market slowly appreciates based on purchasers that can hold on. I'm not talking down the mArket - i'm just trying to save my arse

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    i agree. slowly appreciates is good steady growth. running up before the start of an economic recovery in a similar fashion to 2007 bull run, some piece of the puzzle just doesn't seem to fit in does it?



    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    I think people fail to see the seriousness of irrational exhuberance in today's market. You get pressured by sentiment and salestalk and buy wo underlying fundamentals. Then comes a scare and i tell you, the whole situation will drop like a rock when everybody starts jumping. I'd rather the market slowly appreciates based on purchasers that can hold on. I'm not talking down the mArket - i'm just trying to save my arse

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    I think people fail to see the seriousness of irrational exhuberance in today's market. You get pressured by sentiment and salestalk and buy wo underlying fundamentals. Then comes a scare and i tell you, the whole situation will drop like a rock when everybody starts jumping. I'd rather the market slowly appreciates based on purchasers that can hold on. I'm not talking down the mArket - i'm just trying to save my arse
    Well said!

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    When every single mutha****ing agent and his sister starts calling you, emailing you, sms-ing you on just about every different condo from just about every single part of Singapore.

    the only time my mailboxes have been spammed with such volume is during Nov thru Jan.

    People, BEWARE. Think before you buy. Do not get suckered.

    Just become you bought a 2 room unit in sail dirt cheap beginning this year does mean you are good at timing. You could be 'lucky' in a one time purchase. You know when lowest point? when highest?

    I dun think you be buying and selling regularly. So talks about pricing are free, dun hurt. Guess there might be some dudes miss out some good buys due to some advices from some guys who claim to be a guru.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    Just become you bought a 2 room unit in sail dirt cheap beginning this year does mean you are good at timing. You could be 'lucky' in a one time purchase. You know when lowest point? when highest?

    I dun think you be buying and selling regularly. So talks about pricing are free, dun hurt. Guess there might be some dudes miss out some good buys due to some advices from some guys who claim to be a guru.
    Dude, i've never professed to be a guru, or good at timing, or rich, or privileged or anything.

    All i emphasize is what common sense is already telling many. The economy is still floundering, fundamentals are still shaky, and the developers are aggressively clearing their stock and not replenishing their landbanks. Even the stock markets are like trapping water, trying to be above sea level. Look at how fragile confidence is - one tax scare and property stocks drop like a rock and friends start MSN-ing about whether to dump their property or not. Imagine a scare that is a little more substantial - will property owners start dumping too?

    And then you have cheap-shot marketing tactics from developers and agents trying to market properties previously and historically deemed as non-ideal and discounted, to be a property more than what it really is by putting terms like 'Tanglin' in ang suah, 'city centre' in a cemetary, 'luxury living' in a hobbit hole.

    No one knows when property will drop to the lowest or go to the highest - esp in Singapore when things are driven by sentiment and confidence and not fundamentals. I bought in Feb not because indicators like PMIs, baltic dry seemed to hit bottom, but mostly because for the first time, TS hit launch pricing. I emphasize - i bought because the price of my property hit 2005 launch price. I couldn't care less about other areas because it was not within my focus.

    So i tell you this - nobody needs to be a seasoned investor to buy at the right time when its so obvious that an iconic property is going for a price set 4 years ago, 2 years before the last property boom, and 1.5 years after the last property bottom. All you need is to put in the effort to have agents working for you, and to read sat's papers regularly.

    My advice to those who are looking at properties out there: focus on the type and location you want and shortlist, then do price comparisons and see how much current price have risen above launch, or surrounding levels. Then go for the best price performance. Buy because that property or area you shortlisted has hit your price target, don't buy because there are queues outside a place, or your friend/family is jumping in, and the newspapers/agents/developers are all saying it's sunny outside.

    I've recommended to a forummer and friend here on a locality that is more prime and prestigious in terms of living and potential than ascentia sky, at less than half the psf. Proud owner and others have recommended areas that they are focused in. There are many ignored older properties out there that are still very good value. There's even more landed out there that represents even better value.

    Don't get suckered by marketing-speak.
    Last edited by gfoo; 11-07-09 at 10:28.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    Dude, i've never professed to be a guru, or good at timing, or rich, or privileged or anything.

    All i emphasize is what common sense is already telling many. The economy is still floundering, fundamentals are still shaky, and the developers are aggressively clearing their stock and not replenishing their landbanks. Even the stock markets are like trapping water, trying to be above sea level. Look at how fragile confidence is - one tax scare and property stocks drop like a rock and friends start MSN-ing about whether to dump their property or not. Imagine a scare that is a little more substantial - will property owners start dumping too?

    And then you have cheap-shot marketing tactics from developers and agents trying to market properties previously and historically deemed as non-ideal and discounted, to be a property more than what it really is by putting terms like 'Tanglin' in ang suah, 'city centre' in a cemetary, 'luxury living' in a hobbit hole.

    No one knows when property will drop to the lowest or go to the highest - esp in Singapore when things are driven by sentiment and confidence and not fundamentals. I bought in Feb not because indicators like PMIs, baltic dry seemed to hit bottom, but mostly because for the first time, TS hit launch pricing. I emphasize - i bought because the price of my property hit 2005 launch price. I couldn't care less about other areas because it was not within my focus.

    So i tell you this - nobody needs to be a seasoned investor to buy at the right time when its so obvious that an iconic property is going for a price set 4 years ago, 2 years before the last property boom, and 1.5 years after the last property bottom. All you need is to put in the effort to have agents working for you, and to read sat's papers regularly.

    My advice to those who are looking at properties out there: focus on the type and location you want and shortlist, then do price comparisons and see how much current price have risen above launch, or surrounding levels. Then go for the best price performance. Buy because that property or area you shortlisted has hit your price target, don't buy because there are queues outside a place, or your friend/family is jumping in, and the newspapers/agents/developers are all saying it's sunny outside.

    I've recommended to a forummer and friend here on a locality that is more prime and prestigious in terms of living and potential than ascentia sky, at less than half the psf. Proud owner and others have recommended areas that they are focused in. There are many ignored older properties out there that are still very good value. There's even more landed out there that represents even better value.

    Don't get suckered by marketing-speak.
    Hi Gfoo, I am very new in this very informative forum. I would like to seek your kind advice on which area to invest (that is more prime than ascentia sky butr cheaper). Thks.

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    Quote Originally Posted by helenthean
    Hi Gfoo, I am very new in this very informative forum. I would like to seek your kind advice on which area to invest (that is more prime than ascentia sky butr cheaper). Thks.
    GWL - can i pitcha lobang here?

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    wat lobang? can share share?

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    yeah, i am curious too

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    wo giving it away and pissing off my friend plenty of features below, sure can guess one. dun ask me already - it's not some special lobang or anything - all you need to do is not get distracted by the big colorful ads and noise, and drill down to small, boring b/w listings. if a dumbass like me can do it, anybody can!

    - mins by bicycle to IR*
    - mins to another type of gambling haven
    - mins walking distance to MRT*
    - mins driving distance to CBD
    - if i park my car there for the next few years suspension sure disintegrate*
    - exclusive mostly expat enclave
    - zero HDB around
    - just above half the price of ascentia sky (not propguru price, but sat papers and actual acceptance pricing)
    - 2 units floating the the past week in bank auctions - one public can access, the other pb customers only - price less than half of AS

    prob gone by now, but this and other areas there are pockets of value buys still available, as long as people get out of the mentality that new is good. If i had the money (i'm poor really), i'd rather get this area than angsuah or cemetary or ppjang anytime.

    *akanD

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    wo giving it away and pissing off my friend plenty of features below, sure can guess one. dun ask me already - it's not some special lobang or anything - all you need to do is not get distracted by the big colorful ads and noise, and drill down to small, boring b/w listings. if a dumbass like me can do it, anybody can!

    - mins by bicycle to IR*
    - mins to another type of gambling haven
    - mins walking distance to MRT*
    - mins driving distance to CBD
    - if i park my car there for the next few years suspension sure disintegrate*
    - exclusive mostly expat enclave
    - zero HDB around
    - just above half the price of ascentia sky (not propguru price, but sat papers and actual acceptance pricing)
    - 2 units floating the the past week in bank auctions - one public can access, the other pb customers only - price less than half of AS

    prob gone by now, but this and other areas there are pockets of value buys still available, as long as people get out of the mentality that new is good. If i had the money (i'm poor really), i'd rather get this area than angsuah or cemetary or ppjang anytime.

    *akanD
    haha know liao.. yes this area in my shortlist too .. can golf golf some more, and just a bit further down got one big freehold one, damn good price about 2 mths ago, but think the window closed liao

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    Quote Originally Posted by august
    haha know liao.. yes this area in my shortlist too .. can golf golf some more, and just a bit further down got one big freehold one, damn good price about 2 mths ago, but think the window closed liao
    got one bank sale one largish unit f**cked up view gg for $6xxpsf

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    Sorry, still can't catch what place is this? Care to share?

    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    wo giving it away and pissing off my friend plenty of features below, sure can guess one. dun ask me already - it's not some special lobang or anything - all you need to do is not get distracted by the big colorful ads and noise, and drill down to small, boring b/w listings. if a dumbass like me can do it, anybody can!

    - mins by bicycle to IR*
    - mins to another type of gambling haven
    - mins walking distance to MRT*
    - mins driving distance to CBD
    - if i park my car there for the next few years suspension sure disintegrate*
    - exclusive mostly expat enclave
    - zero HDB around
    - just above half the price of ascentia sky (not propguru price, but sat papers and actual acceptance pricing)
    - 2 units floating the the past week in bank auctions - one public can access, the other pb customers only - price less than half of AS

    prob gone by now, but this and other areas there are pockets of value buys still available, as long as people get out of the mentality that new is good. If i had the money (i'm poor really), i'd rather get this area than angsuah or cemetary or ppjang anytime.

    *akanD

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    I guess it is The Sail or MBR?

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Sorry, still can't catch what place is this? Care to share?
    Is it Tanjong Rhu?

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    Costa Rhu, Pebble Bay, Sanctuary Green, Waterplace etc?

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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    dead cat dun bounce, they are lying on the floor
    You're right. Only "C" cup titties can bounce

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    Quote Originally Posted by Geylang OKT
    Costa Rhu, Pebble Bay, Sanctuary Green, Waterplace etc?
    Share the same sentiment, its the Tanjong Rhu area.
    That side no HDB. With the new carriageway to Nicoll highway, mins to CBD.
    Stadium MRT also coming up soon etc etc.....

    Only problem with that area for some is that some of the project already 15 - 16 years old......

    But can't denied that prices are really low as compared to AS price.

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackswan
    Share the same sentiment, its the Tanjong Rhu area.
    That side no HDB. With the new carriageway to Nicoll highway, mins to CBD.
    Stadium MRT also coming up soon etc etc.....

    Only problem with that area for some is that some of the project already 15 - 16 years old......

    But can't denied that prices are really low as compared to AS price.
    I have heard that the Marina Public golf course will make way for new developments once the lease is up, I think in 30 yrs time. Right now, its just waiting for the soil (reclaimed) to settle and there are talks that it could be used for residential developments. So for those developments that has sea view or CBD view, eg Belverde, SG etc, this view may be gone sometime later, although you will be able to enjoy it for at least a genration I guess.

    Anybody knows of anything regarding the Marina Golf course?

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    Quote Originally Posted by HP65
    I have heard that the Marina Public golf course will make way for new developments once the lease is up, I think in 30 yrs time. Right now, its just waiting for the soil (reclaimed) to settle and there are talks that it could be used for residential developments. So for those developments that has sea view or CBD view, eg Belverde, SG etc, this view may be gone sometime later, although you will be able to enjoy it for at least a genration I guess.

    Anybody knows of anything regarding the Marina Golf course?
    Where marina bay is for premium/lux manhattan-style living and the IR is business focused, marina east is the logical extension for a monte carlo-type luxury 3rd casino (if the 1st 2 work out and there is demand), and luxury residential waterfront living on the mainland.

    You are right to say those meyer and some tg rhu condos (except costa and pebble) are gonna be in for a rude shock one morning decades down the road. But it'll be at least another 8 years for the reclaimed land to settle.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    Where marina bay is for premium/lux manhattan-style living and the IR is business focused, marina east is the logical extension for a monte carlo-type luxury 3rd casino (if the 1st 2 work out and there is demand), and luxury residential waterfront living on the mainland.

    You are right to say those meyer and some tg rhu condos (except costa and pebble) are gonna be in for a rude shock one morning decades down the road. But it'll be at least another 8 years for the reclaimed land to settle.
    3rd Gambling Den? Oh dear, I hope that guy who is tasked or asked to look into possible developments for Marina east would not propose another casino. Anyway, thx for the information.

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    But the asking is not that cheap now in that area? Most units are asking for at least $900 to more than $1000psf. Anyone know what is the highest price that units in Pebble Bay/Costa Rhu have fetched before?

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