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Thread: Are investors banking on a rental recovery?

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    Default Are investors banking on a rental recovery?

    http://www.todayonline.com/Business/...ntal-recovery?

    Are investors banking on a rental recovery?

    by Tan Hui Leng [email protected]

    05:55 AM Jun 25, 2009


    Consider this: Rentals are sliding while residential property sales continue to scale new heights in the current troubled times. With almost half of recent buyers being potential investors with private addresses, could these people be punting on a rental recovery?

    If so, they may be staring at a wait of several years for the uptick.

    "I don't expect any rental recovery for the rest of this year," said PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail.

    ERA Asia Pacific associate director Eugene Lim concurred. "Tenant demand has nothing to do with property prices, so even though sales have gone up, the rental market is still challenging," he said.

    Some analysts are even projecting that a rental recovery will not kick in until three years later.

    According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority, rentals slid 8.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year - down from 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year - as the double whammy of a weak economy and new supply hit the market.

    Mr Mohamed expects second-quarter rental rates to be even more dismal than those of the first quarter. After all, rentals went up 40 per cent in the two-and-a-half years since 2006 as the property market boomed, he noted.

    Still, residential property buyers continue to pile in, shrugging off predictions that rentals would continue sliding for the rest of the year. Perhaps they are not even interested in rental yields.

    Said Cushman and Wakefield Singapore's residential head Connie Looi: "Buyers are rushing in to buy because there has been a downward adjustment in prices. It's not so much because of rental yields, which is about 3.5 per cent on average. It's more for capital appreciation down the road.

    Mr Mohamed cautioned: "Even if you buy property from an investment angle now, it's very hard to predict what the market will be in three years".

    Some market watchers, however, are bullish on the rental market. UBS Investment Research analysts said in a report dated June 18 that they expected rents to "stay flat for the rest of the year and potentially rise 2 to 15 per cent in 2010". They calculated that prime rents had fallen 12 per cent in the year to date.

    So who should invest now? "You need to have a greater appetite for risk and greater holding power to go in now - these are investors with mid- and long-term views, about five years and beyond," said Mr Mohamed.

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    developers must have learn from patpong night market
    Jacked up $, discount %, is the right strategy...



    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    http://www.todayonline.com/Business/...ntal-recovery?

    Are investors banking on a rental recovery?

    by Tan Hui Leng [email protected]

    05:55 AM Jun 25, 2009


    Consider this: Rentals are sliding while residential property sales continue to scale new heights in the current troubled times. With almost half of recent buyers being potential investors with private addresses, could these people be punting on a rental recovery?

    If so, they may be staring at a wait of several years for the uptick.

    "I don't expect any rental recovery for the rest of this year," said PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail.

    ERA Asia Pacific associate director Eugene Lim concurred. "Tenant demand has nothing to do with property prices, so even though sales have gone up, the rental market is still challenging," he said.

    Some analysts are even projecting that a rental recovery will not kick in until three years later.

    According to the Urban Redevelopment Authority, rentals slid 8.5 per cent in the first quarter of this year - down from 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year - as the double whammy of a weak economy and new supply hit the market.

    Mr Mohamed expects second-quarter rental rates to be even more dismal than those of the first quarter. After all, rentals went up 40 per cent in the two-and-a-half years since 2006 as the property market boomed, he noted.

    Still, residential property buyers continue to pile in, shrugging off predictions that rentals would continue sliding for the rest of the year. Perhaps they are not even interested in rental yields.

    Said Cushman and Wakefield Singapore's residential head Connie Looi: "Buyers are rushing in to buy because there has been a downward adjustment in prices. It's not so much because of rental yields, which is about 3.5 per cent on average. It's more for capital appreciation down the road.

    Mr Mohamed cautioned: "Even if you buy property from an investment angle now, it's very hard to predict what the market will be in three years".

    Some market watchers, however, are bullish on the rental market. UBS Investment Research analysts said in a report dated June 18 that they expected rents to "stay flat for the rest of the year and potentially rise 2 to 15 per cent in 2010". They calculated that prime rents had fallen 12 per cent in the year to date.

    So who should invest now? "You need to have a greater appetite for risk and greater holding power to go in now - these are investors with mid- and long-term views, about five years and beyond," said Mr Mohamed.

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    Default Logic of home buyers

    Long term investors look at rental yield and capital appreciation in totality. The biggest fear for any investor is short term capital depreciation. This is why investors have shyed away from purchases end of last year and that resulted in steep price corrections.

    Now the thought in most home buyers' minds is:

    1. risk of short term capital depreciation is v low
    2. possibility of capital appreciation is unclear in short term but good in long term
    3. 'rental yield' to 'interest rate' ratio is at historical high

    So why would it not be logical to buy now?

    Unless there is a black swan negative event, I'd think it's a good time to buy. Don't forget that black swan events could be negative or positive as well. So I would take the black swan factor out - as you can never guess the next war or next state of hyper inflation.
    Last edited by cool_rrk; 25-06-09 at 19:22. Reason: typo error

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    but your point 3 seems a little wierd. rental yield is still falling (and likely so with all the supply coming up in next few years) while interest rate has hit rock bottom (in fact a little above rock bottom already as banks added in more base margin), so your yield vs interest ratio at historical high only indicates the risk of both rent and interest rate moving in the non desirable directions together?! that's a double whammy.


    Quote Originally Posted by cool_rrk
    Long term investors look at rental yield and capital appreciation in totality. The biggest fear for any investor is short term capital depreciation. This is why investors have shyed away from purchases end of last year and that resulted in steep price corrections.

    Now the thought in most home buyers' minds is:

    1. risk of short term capital depreciation is v low
    2. possibility of capital appreciation is unclear in short term but good in long term
    3. 'rental yield' to 'interest rate' ratio is at historical high

    So why would it not be logical to buy now?

    Unless there is a black swan negative event, I'd think it's a good time to buy. Don't forget that black swan events could be negative or positive as well. So I would take the black swan factor out - as you can never guess the next war or next state of hyper inflation.

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    Gross rental yield is now left only about 2.5-3% based on current market price. After minus maintenance fees and possible repairs & agent fees, owners are left with 1.5-2% net rental yield. How can rental yield to interest be at historical high? Even if so, owning the property for renting is still a money-losing business because the lowest interest rate you can get is probably 1.6% and only just 1 and only 1 year. Nobody knows where the rate will be in the future but yet everybody knows that rental is still falling because of more and more units being made available as they TOP in massive numbers in 2009 and 2010.

    Quote Originally Posted by cool_rrk
    Long term investors look at rental yield and capital appreciation in totality. The biggest fear for any investor is short term capital depreciation. This is why investors have shyed away from purchases end of last year and that resulted in steep price corrections.

    Now the thought in most home buyers' minds is:

    1. risk of short term capital depreciation is v low
    2. possibility of capital appreciation is unclear in short term but good in long term
    3. 'rental yield' to 'interest rate' ratio is at historical high

    So why would it not be logical to buy now?

    Unless there is a black swan negative event, I'd think it's a good time to buy. Don't forget that black swan events could be negative or positive as well. So I would take the black swan factor out - as you can never guess the next war or next state of hyper inflation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by cool_rrk
    3. 'rental yield' to 'interest rate' ratio is at historical high

    .
    Then buy HDB lah, 6% rental yield

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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    Then buy HDB lah, 6% rental yield

    HDB shophouse. 10 to 12%

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    Quote Originally Posted by cool_rrk
    Long term investors look at rental yield and capital appreciation in totality. The biggest fear for any investor is short term capital depreciation. This is why investors have shyed away from purchases end of last year and that resulted in steep price corrections.

    Now the thought in most home buyers' minds is:

    1. risk of short term capital depreciation is v low
    2. possibility of capital appreciation is unclear in short term but good in long term
    3. 'rental yield' to 'interest rate' ratio is at historical high

    So why would it not be logical to buy now?

    Unless there is a black swan negative event, I'd think it's a good time to buy. Don't forget that black swan events could be negative or positive as well. So I would take the black swan factor out - as you can never guess the next war or next state of hyper inflation.
    Good in long term. Do you believe it will go up up and up?
    Only a property agent will say such things.

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    Default Analysis of figures

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Gross rental yield is now left only about 2.5-3% based on current market price. After minus maintenance fees and possible repairs & agent fees, owners are left with 1.5-2% net rental yield. How can rental yield to interest be at historical high? Even if so, owning the property for renting is still a money-losing business because the lowest interest rate you can get is probably 1.6% and only just 1 and only 1 year. Nobody knows where the rate will be in the future but yet everybody knows that rental is still falling because of more and more units being made available as they TOP in massive numbers in 2009 and 2010.

    Do you know what is the normal rental / interest ratio?

    I am a property investor / landlord for the last 15 years and I know that the ratio is normally 1.5-2.5% / 2-3% for the last decade. Now the ratio is 2.5% - 3.5% / 0.5% - 1%.....frankly the ratio is almost 4 - 10 times what I am used to. You see mathematically when the interest rate goes close to zero this ratio becomes like this.

    If you have money sitting in the bank then you will know what I mean. Very disheartening to get 0.5% interest. Even loan interest rate is only 1.5% now.

    I firmly believe property market will pick up.

    People talk about supply glut. But think about it, how much the population of Singapore went up last year. That is 10 times the whole supply pipeline. Ofcourse figures are figures so I take it with a pinch of salt. But one thing is for sure, the low rental / high interest ratios of the past are gone forever.
    Last edited by Localite; 26-06-09 at 12:39. Reason: typo

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    Default Comparison

    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    HDB shophouse. 10 to 12%
    Friend, you've got to compare like to like. The ratio for pte apartment rental / interest has gone up signficantly was the point. So people will be tempted to get into the market.

    Different asset classes offer different risk - returns and that's a different topic.

    Singaporeans are very house proud. Not just because of yield or ratios. But they believe in the long run you will always be better off owning property.

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    Thumbs down

    Nice try ! But try again.

    $$ sitting in the bank with low interest rate doesn't mean ppl will throw $$ into property. Being property investor/landlord for 15 years doesnt warrant your firm believe that property will pick up.

    And this is totally irresponsible to insist that lower rental/high interest era will never return.




    Quote Originally Posted by Localite
    Do you know what is the normal rental / interest ratio?

    I am a property investor / landlord for the last 15 years and I know that the ratio is normally 1.5-2.5% / 2-3% for the last decade. Now the ratio is 2.5% - 3.5% / 0.5% - 1%.....frankly the ratio is almost 4 - 10 times what I am used to. You see mathematically when the interest rate goes close to zero this ratio becomes like this.

    If you have money sitting in the bank then you will know what I mean. Very disheartening to get 0.5% interest. Even loan interest rate is only 1.5% now.

    I firmly believe property market will pick up.

    People talk about supply glut. But think about it, how much the population of Singapore went up last year. That is 10 times the whole supply pipeline. Ofcourse figures are figures so I take it with a pinch of salt. But one thing is for sure, the low rental / high interest ratios of the past are gone forever.

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    Default Hello?

    Quote Originally Posted by Douk
    Nice try ! But try again.

    $$ sitting in the bank with low interest rate doesn't mean ppl will throw $$ into property. Being property investor/landlord for 15 years doesnt warrant your firm believe that property will pick up.

    And this is totally irresponsible to insist that lower rental/high interest era will never return.

    Fact :Interest rates will remain near zero for a while

    http://www.blogcatalog.com/search.fr...630859bd4e4321

    Do you disagree with this Mr Dick?

    So if interest rate is historically about 2% for savings that is 4 times what it is now (0.5%).

    Anyway your point about people not throwing in money just because interest rates are low is not totally valid. If you had money in the bank idling then you will know what I mean.

    Ofcourse if someone wants to throw money into other asset classes that's a different discussion. But remember one thing, very liquid asset classes like stocks have already risen very steeply.

    So if you have an intention to pick up a property will you wait for two years / three years? Wait for economy to recover solidly? If you are uninterested in property investments ofcourse then you will stay out. But if you are interested in picking up a property in the next 5 years, then when is the best time. Now. Not after the economy recovers.

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    Actually I have a question, if inflation goes up despite the economy being weak, would interest rates also have to go up? Also, in the US, US treaury yields had been trending up and in turn causing mortgage rates to go up from their bottom earlier this year. Couldn't sg experience a similar phenomenon with regards to mortgage rates going up?

    Another observation I noticed is that the financial crisis is over but the recession is still there! everyone talks about the financial crisis being over but few people realise that the economic recovery is still some time away isn't it?




    Quote Originally Posted by Localite
    Fact :Interest rates will remain near zero for a while

    http://www.blogcatalog.com/search.fr...630859bd4e4321

    Do you disagree with this Mr Dick?

    So if interest rate is historically about 2% for savings that is 4 times what it is now (0.5%).

    Anyway your point about people not throwing in money just because interest rates are low is not totally valid. If you had money in the bank idling then you will know what I mean.

    Ofcourse if someone wants to throw money into other asset classes that's a different discussion. But remember one thing, very liquid asset classes like stocks have already risen very steeply.

    So if you have an intention to pick up a property will you wait for two years / three years? Wait for economy to recover solidly? If you are uninterested in property investments ofcourse then you will stay out. But if you are interested in picking up a property in the next 5 years, then when is the best time. Now. Not after the economy recovers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Localite

    People talk about supply glut. But think about it, how much the population of Singapore went up last year. That is 10 times the whole supply pipeline. Ofcourse figures are figures so I take it with a pinch of salt. But one thing is for sure, the low rental / high interest ratios of the past are gone forever.
    but hor u got to look deeper mah.. the kind of population increase is mainly from demographic who are mostly not in the league of private property ownership.. that is why HDB rental is holding up well while not so for private

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    Actually I have a question, if inflation goes up despite the economy being weak, would interest rates also have to go up? Also, in the US, US treaury yields had been trending up and in turn causing mortgage rates to go up from their bottom earlier this year. Couldn't sg experience a similar phenomenon with regards to mortgage rates going up?

    Another observation I noticed is that the financial crisis is over but the recession is still there! everyone talks about the financial crisis being over but few people realise that the economic recovery is still some time away isn't it?
    that would be stagflation.. which imho quite on the way, at least for US

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    Default IMHO

    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    Actually I have a question, if inflation goes up despite the economy being weak, would interest rates also have to go up? Also, in the US, US treaury yields had been trending up and in turn causing mortgage rates to go up from their bottom earlier this year. Couldn't sg experience a similar phenomenon with regards to mortgage rates going up?

    Another observation I noticed is that the financial crisis is over but the recession is still there! everyone talks about the financial crisis being over but few people realise that the economic recovery is still some time away isn't it?
    Thats stagflation (economic recession and inflation). Normally that case is because of some perculiar scenario. For example if there is some major issue and oil supply is cut, then oil prices will rise (inflation) and with high oil prices businesses may be curbed.

    But in such a scenario interest rate policy may not be the solution. You can't reduce int rate to boost the economy as the real issue is inadequate oil supply. Nor can u increase int rate to reduce oil price. You have to see how to regulate oil supply and oil prices. That is why world leaders are so concerned about this matter and oil supply / prices tend to be regulated somewhat.

    So nett I think stagflation unlikely to happen IMHO.

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    Default hnwi

    Quote Originally Posted by august
    but hor u got to look deeper mah.. the kind of population increase is mainly from demographic who are mostly not in the league of private property ownership.. that is why HDB rental is holding up well while not so for private
    yes true but remember that Singapore is also trying to attract High nett worth individuals. even though they may be small in numbers they are big in impact. Imagine people like Jett lee.....each person buys a house......how many gcbs are there to go around?

    the thing is that sg is tiny. so if a small fraction of ppl from China/India decide to make sg their home it would have major impact.

    honestly i see this as a painless recession. i notice exp restaurants all packed.

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    Although I'm vested in property, I do not wish to see too many foreigners flooding into SG. The most affected people in this recession are the asset poor and cash poor low wage workers who are always encouraged to go for upgrading, retraining, reskilling only to see even lower wage foreign "talents" take away their rice bowls. As for rich foreigners, they distort the market prices - recall that prior to AFC we have HK PRs "manipulating" both private and HBD prices and happily left for home when HK was a stable place again.

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    lol, your statement on "If you had money in the bank idling then you will know what I mean." is nonsense. Maybe you like to imply you have millions sitting in your bank (give u the benefit of doubts), but i would rather my hard earn $$ gained little interest or in the equity than buying property at near peak and later depreciate to half the value.

    from current trend, it is mostly middle class that is flocking to the showroom, it is the mass and mid market property that is in the bull run. Sure there are some good transaction in the high end market, but few. This is already showing that the rich has sidelined, keeping their cash for other purpose, not property investment.

    Worst still, if you think that stock market has out run the property. In my opinion, stock market has risen fast and quite a reasonably high level right now, property is also moving close to ridiculous pricing (mid and mass market). Equity is still a safer bet at this uncertain time, cos it is easier to cut loss when thing goes really ugly.

    On your questions " So if you have an intention to pick up a property will you wait for two years / three years? Wait for economy to recover solidly? ". this is so one-sided thinking that economy is on a 1 way street to recovery. Always bear in mind that what goes up must come down (yes, the cycle is drifting upward).. and for now, there are still bubbles waiting to be burst. For me, i will continue to wait.. there is a few signs that you can observe whether it is the right time to buy, such as "has the big developers like CDL, Capitaland" start to stock up their landbank ?

    You may know the trick to buy low, sell high. But i would choose to follow the big players, when they buy.

    btw, at the beginning of bull run at 06, we see news like so and so (such as quek family) buying how many property in sentosa, etc. what are you hearing now... HDB upgrader flocking the showroom, 50% of the home viewer register with HDB address, etc. This is as good as telling ppl that taxi drivers and housewife flocking the stock markets. i would think this is not a good sign.

    P/S: not meant to offence anyone..



    Quote Originally Posted by Localite
    Fact :Interest rates will remain near zero for a while

    http://www.blogcatalog.com/search.fr...630859bd4e4321

    Do you disagree with this Mr Dick?

    So if interest rate is historically about 2% for savings that is 4 times what it is now (0.5%).

    Anyway your point about people not throwing in money just because interest rates are low is not totally valid. If you had money in the bank idling then you will know what I mean.

    Of course if someone wants to throw money into other asset classes that's a different discussion. But remember one thing, very liquid asset classes like stocks have already risen very steeply.

    So if you have an intention to pick up a property will you wait for two years / three years? Wait for economy to recover solidly? If you are uninterested in property investments ofcourse then you will stay out. But if you are interested in picking up a property in the next 5 years, then when is the best time. Now. Not after the economy recovers.

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    Default HDB Upgrader

    hi,
    t a minor point here. I've also read the Straits Times/Business Times property articles which always refer to HDB upgraders.

    How do they know?

    Surely without the benefit of a survey they are only using the purchasers' address and then blindly, and without any form of research, ascribing the word, "upgrader."

    It could be :

    1). HDB upgrader.
    2). HDB investor.
    3). HDB flipper.
    4). HDB speculator.
    5). HDB don't know what.

    regards, Scott

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    Quote Originally Posted by scott7777
    hi,
    t a minor point here. I've also read the Straits Times/Business Times property articles which always refer to HDB upgraders.

    How do they know?

    Surely without the benefit of a survey they are only using the purchasers' address and then blindly, and without any form of research, ascribing the word, "upgrader."

    It could be :

    1). HDB upgrader.
    2). HDB investor.
    3). HDB flipper.
    regards, Scott
    4). HDB speculator.
    5). HDB don't know what.

    SCOTT7777,
    Good point in deducting the possibilities of an HDB address,
    Would like to add:
    HDB tenant,
    HDB 'leech' staying in Mother in law's %-room,
    thanks,

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    Quote Originally Posted by streetcar
    4). HDB speculator.
    5). HDB don't know what.

    SCOTT7777,
    Good point in deducting the possibilities of an HDB address,
    Would like to add:
    HDB tenant,
    HDB 'leech' staying in Mother in law's %-room,
    thanks,
    HDB rich man, stay in orchard private condo but official address at HDB with 1 room locked

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    Quote Originally Posted by cool_rrk
    yes true but remember that Singapore is also trying to attract High nett worth individuals. even though they may be small in numbers they are big in impact. Imagine people like Jett lee.....each person buys a house......how many gcbs are there to go around?

    the thing is that sg is tiny. so if a small fraction of ppl from China/India decide to make sg their home it would have major impact.

    honestly i see this as a painless recession. i notice exp restaurants all packed.
    imo ppl should pay more attention to this h1n1 thingy.. it isn't abating or anywhere pass full blown & has the potential to derail the IRs, it is already creating havoc for the AYG (despite the propaganda press cares to admit) lol...

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    Default HDB Upgrader

    hi,

    Thanks for adding-in some other alternatives. So, basically, the phrase. "HDB Upgrader" as used by the Straits Times/Business Times is meaningless and used to make an unsubstantiated comment for the sake of a spurious explanation in an article.

    As some 80% of Singaporeans live in HDB apartments it is commonsense to assume that, at any one time, a considerable proportion would be buying private properties for a wide variety of reasons.

    Just as we all want brighter and smarter homes, let's hope the reporters at the above newspapers also get brighter and smarter.

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    The Edge magazine lists the property transacted with the purchasers' address being either HDB or private.

    http://www.theedgesingapore.com/link...nedeals375.pdf

    Based on the latest contracts from May22 to May 29, as far as I can see, for the prime areas (9,10,11, 15), the majority are private address purchasers.

    In fact, based on the no. of contracts for that period, I do not see evidence that private property owners are "staying by the sidelines" any more than HDB dwellers.

    Just that there are more evidence of HDB upgraders interested in certain districts and more private property owners purchasing in others.

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    Hi,

    Can I know how do you calculate the rental yield. Is it just simply taking the rental amt / cost of the property? Hw abt the interest incurred on the loan, the maintenance fees etc? what are the items to be included to reflect a more accurate yield?

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    Default Calculation of rental yield

    I would use (monthly rental - maintenance - prop tax - interest payment) multiply by 12 months. Using the results, subtract it by the purchase price of the property to derive rental yield.

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    Quote Originally Posted by tamp81
    I would use (monthly rental - maintenance - prop tax - interest payment) multiply by 12 months. Using the results, subtract it by the purchase price of the property to derive rental yield.
    i would include tax on rental income as well ... probably about 1 mth's rent ..

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