Property market sentiments?

[vin002]

I used to agree with you that there is no co-relationship but recent stock market rally push the sellers to ask for sky high pricing than the normal range. So since now stock market seems to be down then its time for seller to lower their asking price?

People relate the recent rally to the stock market. However, it is the buying interest that pushes the demand recently and nothing to do with the stock market rally.

The low buying interest is due to the sudden change of events from Oct 08 onwards where everyone sentiments are poor. This resulted in cautious buyers to on hold their purchases for fear of recession and job losses. The sentiments improved from Mar 09 onwards when stock market rally. People view that as the potential economic recovery, meaning potential recession or job losses are over. Therefore, those potential buyers who have been sideline for a while came back with the strong demands which pushed up the prices. However, this sudden strong demand also includes potential investors hoping to take advantage of the low property prices.

I foresee that the property prices should move sideway for the short term (Assuming no further crisis). However, from 2010 onwards, the demand should pickup.

If buyers are hoping to wait for 2003/04 property prices, they can forget about it. I am confident that the prices will not fall to that level unless H1N1 turned into something like SARS. The reason being the resale HDB prices still yet to fall despite the asking above valuation have disappeared. The gap between private property prices and HDB still not wide enough.

[Property_Owner]

People relate the recent rally to the stock market. However, it is the buying interest that pushes the demand recently and nothing to do with the stock market rally.

The low buying interest is due to the sudden change of events from Oct 08 onwards where everyone sentiments are poor. This resulted in cautious buyers to on hold their purchases for fear of recession and job losses. The sentiments improved from Mar 09 onwards when stock market rally. People view that as the potential economic recovery, meaning potential recession or job losses are over. Therefore, those potential buyers who have been sideline for a while came back with the strong demands which pushed up the prices. However, this sudden strong demand also includes potential investors hoping to take advantage of the low property prices.

I foresee that the property prices should move sideway for the short term (Assuming no further crisis). However, from 2010 onwards, the demand should pickup.

If buyers are hoping to wait for 2003/04 property prices, they can forget about it. I am confident that the prices will not fall to that level unless H1N1 turned into something like SARS. The reason being the resale HDB prices still yet to fall despite the asking above valuation have disappeared. The gap between private property prices and HDB still not wide enough.

I would say yes, prices will never ever go back to 03/04 again. Maybe another 10% downside from what I feel. Also depends on IR, may success, may fails. Who knows. If you can know, huat already. It's about guessing guessing. Taken the risk. Who knows first owners of sails who bought dirt cheap is laughing all the way to the bank during 07. Those who think can hit 4000psf and holding how much they sold after the bubble burst? Never time the bottom or peak!

[EBD]

You want to compare Clementi Park to Sentosa in this respect?

I wouldn't want to live on Sentosa. You know it's real name before they changed it?

[kalumder]

I am noticing a significant increase in newly listed landed properties (D15, D10, D11, Sentosa) being offered for sale on propertyguru. Not to mention that many properties have been re-listed for 6 or more months. For me this a sign that holding power is dwindling, and that even "asset rich" are trying to cash out.

[proud owner]

As I mentioned, 1 person's meat may be another person's poison. However, judging by transacted prices, most people believe Orchard area properties are worth much much more than other places such as the Sommervile Park you mentioned, and that already takes into consideration the so-called nice & quiet etc that can be provided by Sommervile Park (and it seems that these are either not unique to Sommervile Park or not worth much).

you seem to equate > 2000 psf to prime

[proud owner]

[quote=vin002]People relate the recent rally to the stock market. However, it is the buying interest that pushes the demand recently and nothing to do with the stock market rally.
quote]


walau eh .. for weeks people here have been saying the rally in prop prices was due to stock mkt rally ...

where have you been ? now then you come out and say "nothing to do with the stock market rally " ?

why didnt you debutt weeks ago ..those BULLS who attributed the prop mkt to stock mkt ?

[proud owner]

I am noticing a significant increase in newly listed landed properties (D15, D10, D11, Sentosa) being offered for sale on propertyguru. Not to mention that many properties have been re-listed for 6 or more months. For me this a sign that holding power is dwindling, and that even "asset rich" are trying to cash out.

finally someone else also notice this ... in fact ..if you look at the rental market ..its worse ... many unit at sentosa/carribean been out for rent and no takers ..for a long time ..

someone i know who has a rental budget of above 10k ..took a landed at sentosa .. dam nice bungalow ... but now regret ..

no amenities, 'dead town' in the night, green house effect .. are some of his comments .. and although the rent is taken care of by his company , his other expenses has gone up ALOT .. one , he has to book at cab everytime he needs to come mainland, and take cab home as he has to leave his car behind for his wife ... Two the utility bill is crazy .. $2000 over a mth ... greenhouse effect ...have to turn on aircon almost 24/7

[teddybear]

Prime means most people want it, and they are transacted at a premium on average than others. Top 1% priced private properties can be considered prime, so about >$2000 psf? (I am just guess anyway).

you seem to equate > 2000 psf to prime

[Alexis]

I am noticing a significant increase in newly listed landed properties (D15, D10, D11, Sentosa) being offered for sale on propertyguru. Not to mention that many properties have been re-listed for 6 or more months. For me this a sign that holding power is dwindling, and that even "asset rich" are trying to cash out.

Not true. These are the ones who can't hold due to one reason or another. There are a big group of owners, myself included, who have in fact removed their listings in view of future huge increase in prices.

[jitkiat]

finally someone else also notice this ... in fact ..if you look at the rental market ..its worse ... many unit at sentosa/carribean been out for rent and no takers ..for a long time ..

someone i know who has a rental budget of above 10k ..took a landed at sentosa .. dam nice bungalow ... but now regret ..

no amenities, 'dead town' in the night, green house effect .. are some of his comments .. and although the rent is taken care of by his company , his other expenses has gone up ALOT .. one , he has to book at cab everytime he needs to come mainland, and take cab home as he has to leave his car behind for his wife ... Two the utility bill is crazy .. $2000 over a mth ... greenhouse effect ...have to turn on aircon almost 24/7

Forgive my ignorance, what do you mean by green house effect and why is it more serious in Sentosa ?

[Localite]

I am noticing a significant increase in newly listed landed properties (D15, D10, D11, Sentosa) being offered for sale on propertyguru. Not to mention that many properties have been re-listed for 6 or more months. For me this a sign that holding power is dwindling, and that even "asset rich" are trying to cash out.

Totally untrue that holding power is dwindling. Especially for landed ppty this is untrue. You notice that asking prices are sky high. What is happening is that some non-genuine owners are trying their luck.

You saw Jet Li's purchase of Binjai GCB at close to 900 psf. So some owners in the vicinity feel that they can ask 1k+ their semi-Ds. This is what I call asking sky high and trying their luck.

Dwindling holding power for prime landed ppty is the most ridiculous comment I've heard so far.

[Property_Owner]

Totally untrue that holding power is dwindling. Especially for landed ppty this is untrue. You notice that asking prices are sky high. What is happening is that some non-genuine owners are trying their luck.

You saw Jet Li's purchase of Binjai GCB at close to 900 psf. So some owners in the vicinity feel that they can ask 1k+ their semi-Ds. This is what I call asking sky high and trying their luck.

Dwindling holding power for prime landed ppty is the most ridiculous comment I've heard so far.

That german speaking here. Ask him how is his country doing now

[yeo]

anyone here have an estimate of total number of landed properties (all types) in s'pore?

[gfoo]

Reposting it here for open discussion:

I'm probably gonna get flamed for this, but here's a theory that i'm betting on. Now i may be wrong, or right, but my disclaimer is that i'm obviously vested/biased; this is another one of my stupid theories which probably won't come to pass; and heck, it's been a tiring day at CMMA and i'm typing this in a stupor of exhaustion.

The recent run up, just as with other run ups, is all down to the herd mentality and kiasuism. Just like in our stock market, the property market in Singapore doesn't price in fundamentals - it prices in mass psychology and the unique 'i'm better than you' aspiration Singaporeans hold so dear.

HDB upgraders and most Singaporeans make their property buying decisions not on fundamentals, but on just one thing - CPF. As long as the absolute price of the loan does not exceed the monthly contri of 2 working spouses - ie $2200 pm - they won't think so much. At current interest rates, $2200 services a loan of $800k for 33-35 years, or a $1m property. stretch this to 40 years, and that becomes $1.2m. Banks give up to 45 years, making it $1.3m. DBSS buyers have it better - HDB's moral security, and easy to obtain loans.

Local buyers today thus do not seriously factor in location, potential, etc as long as certain key words like 'CCR, RCR, minutes to IR/Orchard/etc, MRT' appear on marketing brochures. Heck they dun really even factor in LH/FH anymore. As long as the quantum meets CPF contri, 'we're practically getting this property for free since we can't draw out our CPF anyways'.

Others add to this list with other justifications like 'must be close to good schools'. People, proximity is no longer a determinant of entry. OBA and service affiliation rank higher today for the really good ones.

This CPF crutch even applies to the little more well off crowd that buy the One Devonshires and 'close to Orchard' properties. Heck, and additional $300-500 per spouse per month 'ain't gonna bust the bank.' and 'I'm essentially paying just $600-$1000 pm for Orchard property!! (not counting CPF contri of course)'

Thus:

I see a tripolarisation of the the property market in Singapore. One segment catered to the fundamentals, another for the price inelastic, and another for all the rest.

Fundamentals
Those that buy on fundamentals look at areas that have definite and quantifiable infrastructural/living/growth investments planned and executed. This market is truly price elastic. If prices outstrip fundamentals, prices will drop - if undervalued, prices will rise. These areas are growth areas hinged on expectations for the future based on existing, confirmed and executed planning investments. Such areas include the Biopolis belt, Marina Bay only. All the other areas - Paya Lebar, Lakeside, Punggol - when I see the money and the start of construction, then i'll call it.

Thus before you buy that 'close to orchard' property, ask yourself - is there growth potential in orchard road? how likely is it for lucky plaza/ paragon/ NAC to be torn down and rebuilt higher and denser? Is is cheaper to enbloc, tear down and build, or just to build in new growth areas on bare land?

Price Inelastic
The rich are not idiots. They buy properties that either will give them much much more returns in the future, or those that protect the sanctity, privacy and prestige of their family. differences in valuation by a million or two will not make much of a dent in purchasing decision more than how well the economy at large will serve them; or even tax laws. You have to really visit a private enclave in Singapore to understand how out of this world old money (and even new money like Jet Lee), and out ministars live. This market segment is intertwined with the fundamentals segment. Case in point - Sentosa. No doubt an exclusive enclave, but as the infrastructural and commercial investments supporting this enclave are in doubt - prices are still underwater. The rich really hate it when there's nothing around to pamper themselves with, and sailing every day is boring. Heck you can't even open the door and swim in the choppy waters or even the lagoon.

The govt is obviously creating a playground for the rich in Singapore - whether the Gardens, entertainment, resorts, tax laws, private banking, HQs, private marinas etc. Now this really hinges not on the success of the IR, but on how Singapore is successful in:
1) positioning itself for high net worth, and tax exempt monies.
2) building a playground for these individuals and thus upping the quality of life

Point 1) has me worried. US tax law changes and the OECD blacklist might be a game changer, and will work only if Singapore and beneficiaries find a way to skirt around this. Otherwise, it'll affect everything to FDI to expats to just about everything non-local around here. This is a huge issue that scares me. IT will affect the 'Fundamentals' segment, less so the private enclaves.

Point 2) is happening right now. It's not the IR per se - although it does add an element of excitement and fun to things. Rather, it's the other stuff like the Gardens, private enclaves, mixed high-end commercial/residential, and recreation/entertainment facilities. Again, this benefits the fundamentals segment, up and down. IF this turns out to be another marina bay park of old, i'm f@cked.

So here's my short-sighted, probably erroneous, and highly flamable prediction for the future. The property market is going to mirror the huge divides in Singapore society in time to come.

The Hamptons vs Manhattan vs Brooklyn

I'm also gonna predict the stagnation of Orchard Road as new commercial destinations come up, and as such destinations become decentralised. The govt has spent $55m putting in lighted walks, and glowing trees. Some good that has done.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict the emergence of all new enclaves in the suburbs - and right now, only coney island and sembawang makes sense to me (assuming the shipyard moves out). This prob is a decade down the road.

Singapore is tiny, and really, everywhere is minutes away to somewhere. Even Sengkang to Suntec is a 15min drive in normal traffic via the KPE.

Flame me if you must, but citizens like myself who have worked so hard for our CPF balances and our savings MUST always look at fundamentals today, and for the future, and not base million dollar decisions on emotion and the lies of marketeers. Stuff like 'limited land' etc etc is bullshit, esp not when we are constantly building up, not wide. Drive around the island, see how much flat land that we have bare. Look at the govt's reserve list that's still unsold.

We are not like Jet Li with his quadrillions who can buy a GCB. If we can penny pinch and compare the cost of rice; price shop during GSS; - then why can't we take a step back and compare PSFs?

[cheerful]

hey gfoo ... thanks for reposting here .. was a little confused when I saw it at that woodleigh thread, wondering if this was in reply to N2M's post .. but then again, wat u've said in this post is pretty much a bigger picture.

But I juz wonder ... when u see the money & by the time when people really see things confirmed & executed ... won't the prices be even higher & probably for some people a little beyond reach? IMO, factors such as infrastructure should be considered as well (e.g. KPE which u've noted links Sengkang to city, a provision of more efficient commuting).

By the time a place becomes v developed, wat about traffic issues? Unless really well planned & executed .. then that's a different story.

Btw, not sure why Punggol is being brought up here when there is no pte projects there (juz hdb) ... juz wondering.

Reposting it here for open discussion:

Local buyers today thus do not seriously factor in location, potential, etc as long as certain key words like 'CCR, RCR, minutes to IR/Orchard/etc, MRT' appear on marketing brochures. Heck they dun really even factor in LH/FH anymore. As long as the quantum meets CPF contri, 'we're practically getting this property for free since we can't draw out our CPF anyways'.

Others add to this list with other justifications like 'must be close to good schools'. People, proximity is no longer a determinant of entry. OBA and service affiliation rank higher today for the really good ones.

......

I see a tripolarisation of the the property market in Singapore. One segment catered to the fundamentals, another for the price inelastic, and another for all the rest.

Fundamentals
Those that buy on fundamentals look at areas that have definite and quantifiable infrastructural/living/growth investments planned and executed. This market is truly price elastic. If prices outstrip fundamentals, prices will drop - if undervalued, prices will rise. These areas are growth areas hinged on expectations for the future based on existing, confirmed and executed planning investments. Such areas include the Biopolis belt, Marina Bay only. All the other areas - Paya Lebar, Lakeside, Punggol - when I see the money and the start of construction, then i'll call it.

.....
We are not like Jet Li with his quadrillions who can buy a GCB. If we can penny pinch and compare the cost of rice; price shop during GSS; - then why can't we take a step back and compare PSFs?

[gfoo]

hey gfoo ... thanks for reposting here .. was a little confused when I saw it at that woodleigh thread, wondering if this was in reply to N2M's post .. but then again, wat u've said in this post is pretty much a bigger picture.

But I juz wonder ... when u see the money & by the time when people really see things confirmed & executed ... won't the prices be even higher & probably for some people a little beyond reach? IMO, factors such as infrastructure should be considered as well (e.g. KPE which u've noted links Sengkang to city, a provision of more efficient commuting).

By the time a place becomes v developed, wat about traffic issues? Unless really well planned & executed .. then that's a different story.

Btw, not sure why Punggol is being brought up here when there is no pte projects there (juz hdb) ... juz wondering.

What i meant by C & E are plans that the government has drawn up, sent to an architect, earmarked budget and completed tenders. it is wholly referring to infrastructure (tpt, rec, comm, ind, utilities, etc) I brought in Punggol not because it's a hdb vs pte thing, but becoz it's a clear example of pure public relations vs reality. it was hyped with nice drawings 10 years ago, and only now was $13m earmarked and tender awarded to build a longkang. Same thing for that plan to tile up orchard streets and make it a pedestrian strip, or for singapore sports hub (in this case while it was tendered, the money never really was earmarked.)

Traffic and density issues always develop when a place reaches saturation, and you've really answerd your own qn - it's the planning that's really important. Thus begs the question: Orchard already has massive congestion, its already dense, and the last piece of 'big' land (the old 1800s cemetary on top of orchard MRT) is now a superdense mixed devt. What other growth potential is there short of painful strip and rebuild strategies?

There's one good thing about Singapore. Everything is so transparent (Masterplan, URA plans, BCA submissions, GEBiz tenders) that a smart person that puts together the bits and pieces can actually predict actual zoning outcomes way before that area hots up.

Trying this in other countries is as good as buying Profitable Plots

[cheerful]

Suppose u muz have scrutinized the masterplan & looked at the Marina area v hard already to conclude it's a good one (+ the plan has to be good) ....

There's one good thing about Singapore. Everything is so transparent (Masterplan, URA plans, BCA submissions, GEBiz tenders) that a smart person that puts together the bits and pieces can actually predict actual zoning outcomes way before that area hots up.

Trying this in other countries is as good as buying Profitable Plots

[gfoo]

Suppose u muz have scrutinized the masterplan & looked at the Marina area v hard already to conclude it's a good one (+ the plan has to be good) ....

Lol. actually i did tat for D15 and newton/orchard.

mbay had no lesser than 3 websites, almost 150 press releases, 6 PDF files - all available for public download. That and the huge construction sites and worker hostels all around. Kinda hits you in the face the potential of this place once the construction is completed. Well, less than 1 year to go to find out whether i'm right or wrong.

it's a very very different kind of living here. We're all used to the gated communities of the traditional condo with a guard or two and a wall surrounding the development, enveloping all the facilities inside. Here, it's almost as if the entire 'hinterland' surrounding the development are the facilities. There's a Harry's, Da Paolos, Raffles Bar, Irish pub, Coffee Bean etc etc built on the condo grounds. but add a 20m radius underground and you have access to the retaillink shoppes. And once mbfc is completed, that 20m radius gives access to Singapore's answer to central park, an MRT, and 3 basements of shopping. Add another 100m in radius and i have a 5min walk to the IR and the gardens. Then you have collyer quay, etc etc - the list is rather long. all i need now is public kayaking by the bay and the right to drive my golf buggy* all the way to mgcc & i can sell my country club membership liao.

so at the price i bought this place at, i thought then that it was quite a fair price, and it'll be kinda fun living here once everything is built up. i'm quite a sucker for cheap thrills


*it's either a golf buggy, or when they legalize segways on pedestrian walks. There's one cheap made-in-china copy that the cops were using during the beijing olympics - i want one of those.

[cheerful]

Mbay is definitely going to be a success (after so much $$ pumped in) so no worries at all lah ... govt won't build KPE for no reason u know ... know even ulu places like Sengkang/Punggol get access to this area quickly ....

[gfoo]

thanks lets get back to the topic for discussion.

Is there tri-polarisation of the market - ala Hamptons/Manhattan/Brooklyn?

Is the CPF system causing a segment of the market to irregard fundamentals, setting them up for a time where they play in their own sandbox - to their peril?

[cheerful]

Is there tri-polarisation of the market - ala Hamptons/Manhattan/Brooklyn?

This is chimme .... got some more other than tri ?

Is the CPF system causing a segment of the market to irregard fundamentals, setting them up for a time where they play in their own sandbox - to their peril?

Shld be the length of bank loans IMO (don't blame CPF system, it's how the people using it) ...

[jitkiat]

Is there tri-polarisation of the market - ala Hamptons/Manhattan/Brooklyn?

This is chimme .... got some more other than tri ?

Is the CPF system causing a segment of the market to irregard fundamentals, setting them up for a time where they play in their own sandbox - to their peril?

Shld be the length of bank loans IMO (don't blame CPF system, it's how the people using it) ...

What else can CPF OA be used for? Leave it in CPF to get 2.5%, probably not enough to beat inflation. Used for stocks, most people enter at the wrong time, select the wrong stocks and get burnt ... so our government decides to let you buy property loh, at least property government can control price indirectly (the only time they were too slow to act was 1996/1997 bubble).

[kalumder]

Not true. These are the ones who can't hold due to one reason or another. There are a big group of owners, myself included, who have in fact removed their listings in view of future huge increase in prices.

you lack reading comprehension. Fact is, that landed listings are increasing on a daily basis. That does not mean that most cant hold, or some retract (although why not leave it on the market and just keep asking your expected price?). IT just means that a % cant. IT is no surpise, as rental contracts are ending, and some owners who are higly leveraged are finding it difficult to find tenants under the same conditions as in the last 2 years.

[jc]

you lack reading comprehension. Fact is, that landed listings are increasing on a daily basis. That does not mean that most cant hold, or some retract (although why not leave it on the market and just keep asking your expected price?). IT just means that a % cant. IT is no surpise, as rental contracts are ending, and some owners who are higly leveraged are finding it difficult to find tenants under the same conditions as in the last 2 years.

Hey pal r u local? Seems that u lack understanding of Landed mkt. Landed is of a different dynamics as compared to condos. FH Landed pxs dont go on a roller coaster ride. And most investors if they buy landed for investment can n is able to hold on. Those who depend on rental for instalment payment most of the time go for condos.

Listings can be duplicated. Is that new to u?

[kalumder]

Hey pal r u local? Seems that u lack understanding of Landed mkt. Landed is of a different dynamics as compared to condos. FH Landed pxs dont go on a roller coaster ride. And most investors if they buy landed for investment can n is able to hold on. Those who depend on rental for instalment payment most of the time go for condos.

Listings can be duplicated. Is that new to u?

So you are telling me that everyone who bought landed to rent out in Singapore is non-leveraged?

I really do not understand where in my posts I was not clear. I check propertyguru everyday, and noticed an increase in landed property being added on a daily basis to the site, by the agents in the last 2 weeks. Nothing more nothing less. How ever landed property rents have fallen by nearly 50% in the recent months. So why is it un-thinkable that a few owners will/might have problems?

There are plenty of rich people (asset rich)who are/where greedy and leveraged to the hilt (cash poor), and are struggling to meet their financial obligations.

[orange]

kalumder claims to be a german national. he does not qualify for a landed. as usual, a foreigner who knows nuts about s'pore talking cock.

[kalumder]

kalumder claims to be a german national. he does not qualify for a landed. as usual, a foreigner who knows nuts about s'pore talking cock.

speaking of talking cock.
do you know what a PR is and how to obtain it? you might want to read up on it.

[proud owner]

Not true. These are the ones who can't hold due to one reason or another. There are a big group of owners, myself included, who have in fact removed their listings in view of future huge increase in prices.

either my english not good or you contradicting yourself ..

you are one of those , who has holding power ... and yet has removed your listing in view of future huge increase in prices ??

why list your property in the first place ? only to remove it later and say you have holding power ??

[proud owner]

Forgive my ignorance, what do you mean by green house effect and why is it more serious in Sentosa ?

i am not saying that greenhouse effect is more serious in sentosa

but being PRIME location ...high crass area .. so all trying to out do the neighbours will damn nice design

whats the point of staying sentosa , sea view, in a bungalow with small windows ?

so alot have full glass wall every direction mah ..

so green house lor ?

[proud owner]

kalumder claims to be a german national. he does not qualify for a landed. as usual, a foreigner who knows nuts about s'pore talking cock.

he may be german ... but if he is a PR .. he can still buy landed ... just like Jet Li ....

eerrr looks like you just slap yourself ..with the Nuts and talking cock thingy ...

are you local ?