Property market sentiments?

[Reporter]

我国富裕人士 财富增加者比半年前多
在这些财富上升的人士当中，多数(33%)的财富增长幅度在10%或以下、10%的财富增长幅度介于11%到24%、7%的涨幅介于25%到50%，仅有3%的财富增长超过50%。
联合早报
星期二, 08-12-2009

和半年前相比，现在有更多新加坡富裕人士的财富在过去六个月里有所增加。

汇丰银行的一项亚洲财富调查显示，超过半数(53%)的新加坡富裕人士认为，他们的财富在过去六个月里有所增加，但在半年前，只有23%的受访者这么认为。

上述由媒体调查公司尼尔森代表汇丰银行展开的调查，是于今年9月到10月间针对亚洲八个主要市场，年龄介于30到55岁的富裕人士进行的，目的是要了解他们的财富状况，以及在未来六个月里在投资以及消费方面所将作出的改变。

所谓富裕人士指的是流动性资产或收入在前10百分位数(top 10 percentile)的人士。

参与调查的人士总共超过1700名，在新加坡的受访者超过200个。

在这些财富上升的人士当中，多数(33%)的财富增长幅度在10%或以下、10%的财富增长幅度介于11%到24%、7%的涨幅介于25%到50%，仅有3%的财富增长超过50%。

财富不变或下滑 比例明显减少

那些财富没有增长的人士，20%表示没有变动，另外27%的财富则出现下滑，但这个比例相对于半年前的56%，明显减少。

尽管财富上扬，绝大部分(68%)的国人在未来六个月里的投资风险承担能力将维持不便、21%将承担更高风险，其余的11%则表示将减少所承担的风险。

52%的受访人士计划提高投资额，有意将投资分散的国人则有34%。多数(62%)表示将在未来六个月里投资于亚太区。

将进行投资的富裕国人当中，68%计划投资于股票、30%将投资于新元或外币存款、29％则将投资于共同基金(mutual funds)和单位信托。

风险指数显示 国人稍倾向稳定性

此项调查也包含一个风险指数，测量国人对于稳定性及增长所持的态度。零代表稳定性，200则代表增长，调查所显示的新加坡风险指数为95，显示国人稍微倾向于稳定性。

消费方面，超过半数(60%)的国人将不会在未来的六个月里改变消费习惯。至于最大的消费开支，56%的受访者表示是旅游。

调查也发现，三分之一的富裕国人有落户海外的亲人，而近一半表示有意在未来十年里移居国外。

[stalingrad]

I basically ignore everything that Reporter reports. To gauge the condition of the market, I gather information on vacancy rates. My sample include both high end condos like rivergate and mass condos like botannia. While my statistics may be wrong, my sense is that the true vacancy rate is at least 40% on average across the country. When vacancy is so high, where is the upside potential?

Take botannia for example, six months after TOP, no more than 20 units are sold and another 225 units (out of 400+) are looking for buyers. I don't know how many of the 225 ads are repeats from different agents, the number is numbingly large. Take rivergate, even today there are 150+ units looking for buyers more than one year after TOP.

[bargain hunter]

that's why i think there is a need to differentiate between prime high end and prime super luxury. super luxury won't be hurt because they don't need the rentals but prime high end like rivergate does and when analysts refer to prices of high end going up next year, i think it refers more to super luxury than the likes of rivergate.

I basically ignore everything that Reporter reports. To gauge the condition of the market, I gather information on vacancy rates. My sample include both high end condos like rivergate and mass condos like botannia. While my statistics may be wrong, my sense is that the true vacancy rate is at least 40% on average across the country. When vacancy is so high, where is the upside potential?

Take botannia for example, six months after TOP, no more than 20 units are sold and another 225 units (out of 400+) are looking for buyers. I don't know how many of the 225 ads are repeats from different agents, the number is numbingly large. Take rivergate, even today there are 150+ units looking for buyers more than one year after TOP.

[Reporter]

URA latest data:

398 sqft, S$550,000, 1381 psf, Oct-09

This will set a benchmark for future transactions.

Cheers!

Nothing to cheer for. it just doesn't make any sense to own such chicken coop units. the rich expats will not rent any of these tiny units. the poor ones cannot afford the rent you are charging. they can pay at most 1k or 1.5k per month. At such rates, the net rental yield (after maintenance fee) is very very low, less than 3%.

Don't cheer too early. things that appear to make little sense usually do.

You seem to have a grudge against ppl whose property appreciates or gives good yield (percieved or real).....I sense jealousy.

Wow!
Made up poor rental story due to jealousy?
Like that I better ignore everything stalingrad post.

[Reporter]

jlrx, I think you have failed in preaching your "propertism" again.
Did you manage to reach out to these owners who have just sold for a short-term profit?
No right? What's your action plan?


Rivergate
Address ................................. psf ................. Area ........... Price ............ Contract Date
99 Robertson Quay #22-15 ... $1,616 psf ..... 1,496 sqft ... $2,418,000 ...... 18 Nov 09
99 Robertson Quay #24-12 ... $1,709 psf ..... 1,539 sqft ... $2,630,000 ...... 10 Nov 09
97 Robertson Quay #30-06 ... $1,733 psf ..... 2,077 sqft ... $3,600,000 ..... 29 Oct 09
99 Robertson Quay #16-12.... $1,748 psf ..... 1,539 sqft ... $2,690,000 ....... 14 Oct 09
93 Robertson Quay #14-05.... $1,548 psf ..... 1,550 sqft ... $2,400,000 ....... 12 Oct 09
97 Robertson Quay #34-08 ... $1,901 psf 2,077 sqft ... $3,950,000 ....... 7 Oct 09
99 Robertson Quay #06-12 ... $1,700 psf ..... 1,539 sqft ... $2,616,000 ......... 7 Oct 09
99 Robertson Quay #21-16 ... $1,700 psf ..... 1,044 sqft ... $1,774,000 ...... 28 Sep 09
97 Robertson Quay #33-10 ... $1,800 psf .... 1,970 sqft ... $3,546,000 ...... 16 Sep 09
99 Robertson Quay #23-14 ... $1,711 psf ..... 1,023 sqft ... $1,750,000 ...... 14 Sep 09
99 Robertson Quay #14-13 ... $1,649 psf ..... 1,055 sqft ... $1,740,000 ........ 9 Sep 09
97 Robertson Quay #38-09 ... $1,800 psf .... 3,843 sqft ... $6,917,000 ..4 Sep 09

[blackswan]

Not to forget 2 Fragrance Hotel directly at the back plus 3 Hotel 81 further down.

Also another Hamilton Hotel though dun know whether its budget or not.

i wont ...thanks for reminding me ..

i used to joke with my friend ..

if we have a unit there .. and need to sell ..i can advertise :

Nice Seaview , near amenities like :
immigration,
casket
short walk to cheap lighting shops

ok stop here before i get bashed

dont worry i wont buy there ...

if its so good and have good rental like they say ... why still have a seaview unit out for auction ?

owner should just offer out at 1500 psf ... maybe fellow citylighters will buy

[stalingrad]

Wow!
Made up poor rental story due to jealousy?
Like that I better ignore everything stalingrad post.

Did not make up any story.

Ignore my postings at your own risk. A lot of people have been declared bankrupt for blindly practicing propertism. While the trend is probably up at any period of time, there is always volatility in the short term. When you get caught in one of those hip-cup period, you are dead figuratively and literally.

[xebay11]

Did not make up any story.

Ignore my postings at your own risk. A lot of people have been declared bankrupt for blindly practicing propertism. While the trend is probably up at any period of time, there is always volatility in the short term. When you get caught in one of those hip-cup period, you are dead figuratively and literally.

The bogeyman is coming to get you!

[Reporter]

Japan OKs massive US$274 billion stimulus package
Agence France-Presse
Tokyo, Japan
Tuesday, 8 December 2009, 12:22 PM JST


Japan to boost recovery with giant stimulus plan. - Photo: AFP

Japan's cabinet on Tuesday approved a huge economic stimulus package worth US$274 billion (S$380.88 billion) including more than US$80 billion dollars (S$111.20 billion) in direct spending, the government said.

The package is meant to boost a fragile recovery from Japan's worst post-war recession, which is now threatened by deflation and the strong yen's impact on exporting companies in Asia's biggest economy.

The cabinet of centre-left Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama agreed on the size of the package, to be financed by an extra budget for the financial year to March 2010, after its announcement was delayed last Friday.

"We made a cabinet decision on the emergency economic measures," chief government spokesman Hirofumi Hirano said. "The scale exceeds 24 trillion yen (S$369.6 billion) in terms of the value of projects."

The new package totals ¥24.4 trillion (S$380.88 billion), the government said in a statement.

It includes direct spending as well as loan guarantees and other measures that do not require actual government outlays.

It would extend a reward programme for energy-efficient appliances and loan guarantees for small and mid-size businesses, and include spending to help companies retain workers, reports have said.

The Hatoyama government, which ousted the long-ruling conservative party in a landslide election in August, froze part of its predecessor's first supplementary budget, which was worth ¥13.9 trillion (S$214.06 billion).

It cited the need to slash government waste in Japan, where public debt is around 180% of gross domestic product, largely due to massive spending during the economic "lost decade" of the 1990s.

Japan's economy grew 4.8% on an annualised basis in the July-September quarter, the fastest growth in 2½ years, according to preliminary data from the finance ministry released last month.

The stimulus package was held up Friday when the financial services minister, Shizuka Kamei, boycotted a ministerial meeting while demanding additional spending, part of which was agreed by the cabinet.

Hatoyama's Democratic Party of Japan needs the support of Kamei's smaller People's New Party to ensure passage of laws in the upper house.

[Reporter]

Bernanke signals zerÖ rates ön hold amid weak recovery
Channel NewsAsia
Washington, D.C., U.S.
Tuesday, 8 December 2009, 0223 hrs


Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said on Monday the US recovery has a "way to go" before it takes root, signalling interest rates will be kept extremely lÖÖse for some time to come.

"Though we have begun to see some improvement in economic activity, we still have some way to go before we can be assured that the recovery will be self-sustaining," Bernanke said in a speech to the Economic Club of Washington.

The economy grew at a 2.8% annual pace in the 3rd quarter after 4 straight quarters of contraction, but high unemployment remains a key obstacle to removing unprecedented public support of the economy.

In the near term, Bernanke said, elevated unemployment and stable inflation expectations should keep inflation "subdued," adding: "Inflation could move lower from here."

Inflation expectations over the long term appear stable, Bernanke said, vowing that the Fed "is committed to keeping inflation low and will be able to do so."

As the economy crawls out of the deep recession that began in December 2007, Bernanke indicated the central bank was in no hurry to raise rates, damping speculation of a rate hike after a stronger-than-expected November jobs report on Friday.

The Fed lowered its federal funds target rate to between Ö% and 0.25% in December 2008 in a bid to revive lending after the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy triggered a global crisis that brought the US financial system to its knees.

Speaking just over a week ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's policy-setting meeting on December 15 and 16, Bernanke said the recovery faces "some formidable headwinds," particularly the weak jobs market and tight credit conditions.

Although the jobs market was no longer contracting at the pace seen in 2008 and earlier this year, the unemployment rate had spiked to 10% in November, from as low as 4.4% in March 2007.

"Household spending is unlikely to grow rapidly when people remain worried about job security and have limited access to credit," he said.

Consumer spending, which drives two-thirds of US economic activity, is considered critical to a sustainable recovery.

"My best guess at this point is that we will continue to see modest economic growth next year - sufficient to bring down the unemployment rate, but at a pace slower than we would like," he said.

Bernanke's remarks have "put a dent on rate hike expectations," said Samarjit Shankar of Bank of New York Mellon.

Garrett McIntyre of Moody's Economy.com said that Bernanke had talked down the dollar, which had spiked in the wake of the Friday jobs report.

"It's going to take more than a month's worth of solid job data before Bernanke is going to turn his eye to inflation," McIntyre said.

Bernanke addressed concerns that its zerÖ rate policy and a balance sheet that has ballooned to about US$2.2 trillion could unleash inflatiön.

"As the recovery strengthens, the time will come when it is appropriate to begin withdrawing the unprecedented monetary stimulus that is helping to support economic activity," he said.

Bernanke reiterated assurances that the central bank has "all the tools necessary to withdraw monetary stimulus in a timely and effective way."

Thanks to a new authority received from Congress last year, he said, "when the time comes to raise short-term interest rates and thereby tighten policy, we can do so by raising the rate that we offer banks on their balances with us."

[Reporter]

32 bids for Jurong plot
Joyce Teo
Property Correspondent
The Straits Times
Tuesday, 8 December 2009, 6.45 pm

A 99-YEAR leasehold landed plot in Jurong West attracted a whopping 32 bids.

Chappelis put in a higher-than-expected top bid of $38.5 million or $254 psf.

This was followed closely by Hoi Hup Realty and Sunway Developments' bid of $38 million or $250 psf.

Other bidders include EL Development, Soilbuild Group and Frasers Centrepoint.


The top bid for the 14,098.9 sqm site in Westwood Avenue came in higher than expected.

The site was offered for tender last year. But the government did not award it as the bids it attracted were considered too low.

[Reporter]

3rd highest spending power
Fiona Chan
Property Correspondent
The Straits Times
Tuesday, 8 December 2009, 8:51 pm


Singapore managers

Managers in Singapore have the 3rd-highest spending power in Asia, behind those in Hong Kong and Thailand, according to a new survey released on Tuesday.

Globally, they rank 27th in terms of disposable income, which is the money they have left to spend after taxes.

The study, done by global management consultancy Hay Group, also found that the income gap between managers and clerical staff has widened only slightly over the last three years.

In 2006, Singapore managers earned 4.9 times what their lower-paid clerical staff made. This gap dropped in 2007 to 4.7 times, but grew again this year to 5 times. Still, the pay gap is much smaller and more stable in Singapore than in most other countries in Asia, said Mr Victor Chan, Hay Group Singapore's country manager for reward information services.

China has the largest income gap in this respect, with managers earning 12.6 times the pay of their clerical staff, according to the report. The gap has also grown significantly over the years: in 2006, it was 10.5 times.

On the other end of the spectrum are Japan and Korea, which have smaller pay gaps than Singapore. Japanese managers earn just 3.4 times what their clerical staff do, while the pay of Korean managers is 4.1 times the pay of their clerical employees.

[Reporter]

Singapore to recover rapidly
The Straits Times
Tuesday, 8 December 2009, 8:47 pm


In the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the year, GDP rose by nearly 9% in total and has now made up all but 1.8% of the previous fall in output.

A recent report from the world's leading international bank, HSBC, show Singapore's economic recovery is broadening and set to continue at a rapid pace, with the economy growing by a healthy 6.5% in 2010.

The report called 'Primal Knowledge: Still on fire?' was prepared by HSBC's Emerging Markets Research team.

After the Republic's deepest ever recession has come the strongest economic recovery.

In the 2nd and 3rd quarters of the year, GDP rose by nearly 9% in total and has now made up all but 1.8% of the previous fall in output.

The breakdown of third quarter GDP showed manufacturing growing 8.3% from the previous year, with construction up 12.4% and services 2.4%.

Factors working in Singapore's favour include significant domestic policy support and the prospect of a strong regional and world recovery - all of which bodes well for a strong economic recovery in the future.

According to the HSBC report, there are two reasons to be optimistic about Singapore's export prospects.

First the fundamental drivers of an export recovery are now largely in place.

Asian domestic demand is picking up smartly as a result of improved consumer spending and investment.

Domestic demand is expected to continue to improve as the full effects of the hugely powerful and synchronised policy easing in the region filter through.

This will raise the demand for imports/exports which in turn will boost incomes, encouraging further growth in private consumer spending and investment.

In other words, a virtuous circle of economic expansion is getting underway.

Second, HSBC's own lead indicator - which proved accurate in gauging the scale of the export recession - has entered positive territory, pointing to a strong export recovery in the second half of 2009.

The HSBC report concludes that inflation has bottomed out, but it is unlikely the central bank will shift to a policy of currency appreciation until April 2010.

As there seems no need for a 2nd stimulus package, the fiscal deficit is expected to peak in 2009 before the budget returns to its more accustomed position of being in surplus.

Electronics to the rescue

Adding to HSBC's optimism about the Singapore economy is the encouraging signs shown by the global tech cycle.

Recent months have seen strong increases in US and Japanese semiconductor book to bill ratios, as well as a big bounce in German domestic orders for electrical products.

Electronics output in Singapore surged by 40% between March and September 2009, although it is still below its February 2008 peak.

Property market on the mend

According to the HSBC report, property prices have bottomed out as property market transactions have picked up strongly in the last few months.

Indeed the third quarter saw a near 16% rise in private residential prices from the previous quarter - the biggest quarterly rise since the early 1980s.

The Singapore Government has already taken modest steps to cool activity.

The report sees these measures as a pre-emptive attempt to prevent asset bubbles from developing, and if successful, could dampen economic volatility in the property sector.


HSBC Emerging Markets - Primal Knowledge: Still On Fire?

[kane]

When the hurricane hits next year, your friend that sold his steven's condo would look smarter and prescient than any of you propetism faithfuls. Trust me, you ain't seen nothing yet. Just look at rivergate, how many moths have passed after TOP and how many units are occupied. Everyone is hanging on and waiting for the "surge". when they realilze there will be no surge, the day that rivergate sells for less than 1000 psf will come and hit you in the face before you know it.

actually rivergate prices are creeping higher, the occupancy is the deceiving part, just like cairnhill crest, back in late 08 during the heart of the crisis, i was eyeing it but never got to see firesale prices despite the number of units that were unlit everyday. the only reason is the holders or the developer has holding power.

maybe the mickey mouse units might have a few problems. expat or young couples might want to squeeze in those tiny units but it's unthinkable for me. i rather stay further from town for the same quantum. singapore is so small after all.

[proud owner]

actually rivergate prices are creeping higher, the occupancy is the deceiving part, just like cairnhill crest, back in late 08 during the heart of the crisis, i was eyeing it but never got to see firesale prices despite the number of units that were unlit everyday. the only reason is the holders or the developer has holding power.

maybe the mickey mouse units might have a few problems. expat or young couples might want to squeeze in those tiny units but it's unthinkable for me. i rather stay further from town for the same quantum. singapore is so small after all.

they way i see it :

prices climb faster than real rental demand ..

in time to come ..its the new comers into property mkt, who needs a place ,,,finding it really tough to buy even a 2 bedroom ..so they will / can only afford a studio .. so the demand for studio will be for new comers as a starting property ..as oppose to our time, our starter is a 2 bedroom

[kane]

if those new comers can provide the support for those mm units, then maybe the outlook may not seem so bleak for that segment. one man's meat is another man's poison. i just find the size of it a joke if one is to start a family in that pigeon hole that they call home.

[proud owner]

if those new comers can provide the support for those mm units, then maybe the outlook may not seem so bleak for that segment. one man's meat is another man's poison. i just find the size of it a joke if one is to start a family in that pigeon hole that they call home.

yes i agree .. the size is a joke .. cant even cha cha in the room ..

3 steps forward .. in the kitchen
3 steps left ... on the balcony
3 steps right ... into the toilet
3 steps back ... out of unit

like i said .. the new comers possibly will be the sole buyer... but they are not going to rush for it .. they are so many MM units now ..


and singaporeans arent like americans / europeans .. where they leave their parents by 20 yrs old .. so ..could be a long wait for buyers

and as a parent ..i wonder how many would let their children move out to such a small place ..

[stalingrad]

3 steps back, fall off the balcony and end up dead.

[gfoo]

3 steps back, fall off the balcony and end up dead.

aiyo so mean lol

[cheerful]

aiyo so mean lol

yah loh! ... if it can happen, it can happen to him oso

[bargain hunter]

where got so easy to fall off balcony? still got big planter after balcony to "protect".

3 steps back, fall off the balcony and end up dead.

[proud owner]

where got so easy to fall off balcony? still got big planter after balcony to "protect".

ahhahaha yes ...

also limit to Cha cha ... definitely cannot do Line dance ... max 2 person ..

[stalingrad]

You think it is not easy to fall off the balcony and end up dead? Just check out the balconies at bishan point. It is definitely a place where you end up dead by taking 3 step back.

[bargain hunter]

bishan point old design, no planters?

You think it is not easy to fall off the balcony and end up dead? Just check out the balconies at bishan point. It is definitely a place where you end up dead by taking 3 step back.

[stalingrad]

bishan point old design, no planters?

Was there once, and when the host invited me to take a "breath taking" view on the balcony, I step onto it. It was breath taking alright, but not because of the view, but rather the flimsy, and low railings. I almost blacked out and fell off the balcony. not to mention that it was on the 30th floor. my legs felt weak, and my heart missed not just one beat.

[pearly]

Was there once, and when the host invited me to take a "breath taking" view on the balcony, I step onto it. It was breath taking alright, but not because of the view, but rather the flimsy, and low railings. I almost blacked out and fell off the balcony. not to mention that it was on the 30th floor. my legs felt weak, and my heart missed not just one beat.

May i ask if there is any condo that is to your liking?

[proud owner]

May i ask if there is any condo is to your liking?

i like Leonie hill residences ...

[stalingrad]

May i ask if there is any condo that is to your liking?

I am like bargain hunter and never disclose what I like lest the owners hear it and raise the price.

Golden rule number one posted on the wall above my toilet bowl: never tell anyone what you like even if you love it.

[xebay11]

I am like bargain hunter and never disclose what I like lest the owners hear it and raise the price.

Golden rule number one posted on the wall above my toilet bowl: never tell anyone what you like even if you love it.

That advice is not even worth whatever is inside the toilet bowl as you have many times told ppl what you like, IF the price was right, go through your own postings dude.

[pearly]

I am like bargain hunter and never disclose what I like lest the owners hear it and raise the price.

Golden rule number one posted on the wall above my toilet bowl: never tell anyone what you like even if you love it.

At least, now I can see that your posting makes more sense. So its virtually not possible to see you speaking good about the condos you posting on.

To further your golden rule, it could be possible that one can talk bad about the condo that he/she likes, if you get what i mean.