Property market sentiments?

[Reporter]

我国就业市场回春
联合早报
星期一, 7-12-2009, 5:30pm



就业市场上出现回春气息，最新人力市场调查显示，不少企业计划在明年初招兵买马、回补人力，就业市场有望在开年后恢复经济萧条前景气。

招聘意愿最强劲的三大行业按秩序排名分别是：金融、保险及房地产业、公共行政及教育业，以及采矿和建筑业。

接受人力资源公司万宝华新加坡（Manpower Singapore）访问的699个雇主中，有超过四分之一（27%）表示有意增聘人手，65%表明将按兵不动，只有6%有意削减人手。

整体来说，经季度调整后的净就业展望呈26%，这是招聘展望连续第三个季度呈正数增长，这显示就业市场景气已止跌并稳健反弹。

[kane]

i think that prime property prices are hardly based on yield. 2%, 3% yield is the norm, which basically makes prime property prices unsustainable if you base it on yield.

look at the buyer profile of these prime properties. do they look like they give a damn about yield? they have too much money and they dunno what to do with it. mainland chinese bigwigs and businessmen flushed with cash, indonesian commodity buinessmen flushed with cash, do you think they give a damn about a few thousand SGD a month?

look at gold for example. non yield, non edible, no use at all. and people are buying like there is a shortage. do they care about yield? people are simply parking their money. and prime property offers just one more asset class for them to park money in.

if you're merely the type that depends on rental yield to pay installment, i would advise you not to play prime property but to do other forms of speculation.

i have seen some units own by rich indo, quantum about $4-5+mio. sitting vacant. it's fully funished. they treat it like their holiday home, like how some singaporeans used to buy an apartment in genting and left it vacant during the haydays. the hard thing to do is to put a number as to many of such units there are, whom the owners don't give two hoots whether it's vacant of tenanted.

there is the group whose investors are reliant on the yield and there is another group who do not require any yield from their holiday homes. millionaire dollar question is what is the proportion.

[proud owner]

i have seen some units own by rich indo, quantum about $4-5+mio. sitting vacant. it's fully funished. they treat it like their holiday home, like how some singaporeans used to buy an apartment in genting and left it vacant during the haydays. the hard thing to do is to put a number as to many of such units there are, whom the owners don't give two hoots whether it's vacant of tenanted.

there is the group whose investors are reliant on the yield and there is another group who do not require any yield from their holiday homes. millionaire dollar question is what is the proportion.

good question

sriously i also dont care if the rich are spending huge moiney and leave their purchase empty, unrented.

unfortuantely, we are all well aware that they are many who buy becos they hear 'trend is up' , 'chinese and indians are coming' .. and these people just follow and buy blindly ..

yes ...the price may have gone up after their purchase, but no one ever told them to take profit .. so they hold and keep ... what next ? can they hold for long ?

i know of someone ..who has bought 5 small MM since jun 09 .. totalling 2.6 mio .. and he spent 520k ( 20pct ) on downpayment..

i asked if he is able to service the loan ... he said so far ok

i cannot imagine what will happen when all 5 starts to ask for payment at the same time

also he bought becos his agent told him 'good buy' ..OMG

and how many of such people are there in spore ?

i dont care about the rich .. but dont forget the mass mkt ..there could be alot of people like him ..

they need to be able to rent these units to cover their mortgage ..

this is the group we need to be careful ...

cos when they are unable to service the loan, and / or cannot rent out, enuff to cover loan .. they will be forced to cut loss .. .

when one start to cut .. others will follow ...

[pathetichindsight]

Earlier this year when the economy was in a freefall, there was talk that a lot of speculators would have to force sell their units which top this year and next. In fact, someone i know jumped the gun by selling his steven's rd condo at $1200-ish psf 2-3 mths back as he was afraid of the coming wave of selling pressure, but now i m sure he is kicking himself for jumping the gun.

My question is did most of the speculators who bought during the previous bull run escape the recent price plunge cos of holding power/deferred payment scheme? Was the damage limited to only a minority who decided to cut loss while those who had holding power are still sitting pretty? Cos i did not hear many horror stories of cut loss.....

[proud owner]

Earlier this year when the economy was in a freefall, there was talk that a lot of speculators would have to force sell their units which top this year and next. In fact, someone i know jumped the gun by selling his steven's rd condo at $1200-ish psf 2-3 mths back as he was afraid of the coming wave of selling pressure, but now i m sure he is kicking himself for jumping the gun.

My question is did most of the speculators who bought during the previous bull run escape the recent price plunge cos of holding power/deferred payment scheme? Was the damage limited to only a minority who decided to cut loss while those who had holding power are still sitting pretty? Cos i did not hear many horror stories of cut loss.....

i am not sure either

but theres that constant reminder that there are indeed many people who bought multiple units and they are average income people ... who followed the herd

one example ..could be Hillcrest Villa .. already people lowering their asking price in rental ..so these owners arent those who care less about keeping it empty or not .. also the same project, we see resale done at very close to launch price ... or maybe even slightly lower ..

[hans]

If that is case, there will be firesales, than we can start buying from them

good question

sriously i also dont care if the rich are spending huge moiney and leave their purchase empty, unrented.

unfortuantely, we are all well aware that they are many who buy becos they hear 'trend is up' , 'chinese and indians are coming' .. and these people just follow and buy blindly ..

yes ...the price may have gone up after their purchase, but no one ever told them to take profit .. so they hold and keep ... what next ? can they hold for long ?

i know of someone ..who has bought 5 small MM since jun 09 .. totalling 2.6 mio .. and he spent 520k ( 20pct ) on downpayment..

i asked if he is able to service the loan ... he said so far ok

i cannot imagine what will happen when all 5 starts to ask for payment at the same time

also he bought becos his agent told him 'good buy' ..OMG

and how many of such people are there in spore ?

i dont care about the rich .. but dont forget the mass mkt ..there could be alot of people like him ..

they need to be able to rent these units to cover their mortgage ..

this is the group we need to be careful ...

cos when they are unable to service the loan, and / or cannot rent out, enuff to cover loan .. they will be forced to cut loss .. .

when one start to cut .. others will follow ...

[hans]

Those still holding (top 2010) are hoping the trend will continue upwards, cos of greed or they are still underwater.

Earlier this year when the economy was in a freefall, there was talk that a lot of speculators would have to force sell their units which top this year and next. In fact, someone i know jumped the gun by selling his steven's rd condo at $1200-ish psf 2-3 mths back as he was afraid of the coming wave of selling pressure, but now i m sure he is kicking himself for jumping the gun.

My question is did most of the speculators who bought during the previous bull run escape the recent price plunge cos of holding power/deferred payment scheme? Was the damage limited to only a minority who decided to cut loss while those who had holding power are still sitting pretty? Cos i did not hear many horror stories of cut loss.....

[jlrx]

Earlier this year when the economy was in a freefall, there was talk that a lot of speculators would have to force sell their units which top this year and next. In fact, someone i know jumped the gun by selling his steven's rd condo at $1200-ish psf 2-3 mths back as he was afraid of the coming wave of selling pressure, but now i m sure he is kicking himself for jumping the gun.

If that is case, there will be firesales, than we can start buying from them

There will be no firesale.

Because whoever would sell would have sold during the freefall in early 2009.

Remember, the Subprime Crisis was touted as the "Greatest Crisis Since the Great Depression". What can be more scary than that?

Anyone who would sell would have sold; those who did not sell will not sell.

That's why I say you must have faith in the Propertism religion - that in the long run, property prices can only go up, because fiat money will always lose its value.

The subprime crisis has tested the faith of all Propertism followers. Those who lost their faith, like pathetichindsight's friend, have gone to this fireplace.

[HP65]

There will be no firesale.

Because whoever would sell would have sold during the freefall in early 2009.

Remember, the Subprime Crisis was touted as the "Greatest Crisis Since the Great Depression". What can be more scary than that?

Anyone who would sell would have sold; those who did not sell will not sell.

Haha, that statement is so untrue. Few of my friends who bought 1-North who also bought The Rochester could not sell their units at The Rochester because they were underwater since day 1 even though their purchase px was below public prices. Till now, they are still waiting to sell but offer prices are all below their purchase price. So you can imagine how many of the `public launch' units at The Rochester is unable to be unloaded because they are underwater.

This is one of the reasons why I strongly believe prices will only head south since so many of my friends, many are successful people in their own rights, are holding on to properties that are below their purchase prices and unable to sell at a profit. A few of them are prepared to write off their deposit once The Rochester TOP and market doesnt recover by then. Right now its still on Deferred Payment so no issues yet.

I just need to pick up my mobile and before I finish my contacts under `A', I can buy 3 new/ under construction projects at costs or 10-15% below purchase costs.

[JuzMe]

Good discussion

I don't understand what factors will push the mass market north in 2010. Quite a number of developments will be TOP, no massive increase in populations and expats are not pouring in, etc. Can't see any reason for substantial increase in price next year

[ronyyk76]

Haha, that statement is so untrue. Few of my friends who bought 1-North who also bought The Rochester could not sell their units at The Rochester because they were underwater since day 1 even though their purchase px was below public prices. Till now, they are still waiting to sell but offer prices are all below their purchase price. So you can imagine how many of the `public launch' units at The Rochester is unable to be unloaded because they are underwater.

This is one of the reasons why I strongly believe prices will only head south since so many of my friends, many are successful people in their own rights, are holding on to properties that are below their purchase prices and unable to sell at a profit. A few of them are prepared to write off their deposit once The Rochester TOP and market doesnt recover by then. Right now its still on Deferred Payment so no issues yet.

I just need to pick up my mobile and before I finish my contacts under `A', I can buy 3 new/ under construction projects at costs or 10-15% below purchase costs.

I guess it is not right to follow a faith blindly.

[stalingrad]

Earlier this year when the economy was in a freefall, there was talk that a lot of speculators would have to force sell their units which top this year and next. In fact, someone i know jumped the gun by selling his steven's rd condo at $1200-ish psf 2-3 mths back as he was afraid of the coming wave of selling pressure, but now i m sure he is kicking himself for jumping the gun.

My question is did most of the speculators who bought during the previous bull run escape the recent price plunge cos of holding power/deferred payment scheme? Was the damage limited to only a minority who decided to cut loss while those who had holding power are still sitting pretty? Cos i did not hear many horror stories of cut loss.....

When the hurricane hits next year, your friend that sold his steven's condo would look smarter and prescient than any of you propetism faithfuls. Trust me, you ain't seen nothing yet. Just look at rivergate, how many moths have passed after TOP and how many units are occupied. Everyone is hanging on and waiting for the "surge". when they realilze there will be no surge, the day that rivergate sells for less than 1000 psf will come and hit you in the face before you know it.

[bargain hunter]

Trying to compile a list of the more major projects. Focusing more on CCR as that is where the rental/buy and leave vacant debate is centered on. Please feel free to amend if my estimates are wrong or add to the list.

Recently completed in late 2009:

Some units may need rental to cover:
One-North Residences
One Jervois
Pavilion 11
Hillcrest Villas
The Sixth Avenue Residences
The Suites @ Central
Vida

Unlikely to need rental to cover:
The Coast
The Tate Residences


TOP in 2010:

Some units may need rental to cover:
The Seafront on Meyer
The Clift
Sky @ Eleven
The Trillium (50:50 as to specuvestors vs rich indos)
Southbank
St Thomas Suites
Tribeca
Montebleu
Waterfall Gardens
The Inspira
Duchess Residences
Waterford Residence
Cairnhill Residences
Wilkie Studio
The Riverine by the Park
M21

Unlikely to need rental to cover:
Marina Bay Residences
The Oceanfront
Belle Vue
The Orchard Residences
Helios
Ardmore II
Cliveden at Grange
Cityvista Residences
The Marq
The Solitaire
Skypark
The Lumos


Good mix of owner occupiers and tenants:
One Amber
The Parc
Clementiwoods
The Arte
The Regency @ Tiong Bahru
Parc Mondrian


TOP in 2011:

Some units may need rental to cover:
The Cascadia
Floridian
The Rochester
Soleil @ Sinaran
One Shenton
Martin Place Residences
Aalto
Lumiere

Unlikely to need rental to cover:
Scotts Square
Hilltops
Turquoise

Good mix of owner occupiers and tenants:
Dakota Residences
The Peak @ Balmeg

[Reporter]

第三季改写旧纪录 私宅租用数目今年有望创新高（set a new high）
联合早报
星期一, 30-11-2009

经济复苏带动租房子住的人（number of tenants）进一步增加（increased）。今年第三季，私宅市场的租用数目创下1万1478个单位的最高水平，不但比第二季的1万零327个增加11%，也改写了一年前1万零923个单位的旧季度纪录。

第一太平戴维斯的数据显示，这带动今年首九个月租出的私人房屋达到3万1384个单位，比2007年多了2444个。

第一太平戴维斯私宅租用主管赖恩庭相信，按照这样的速度下去，今年全年的租用数目应该有望创下新高，改写2008年才创下的3万5125个单位纪录。

他认为，外国人（foreigners）和永久居民（PRs）增加，应该是造成今年租用市场异常活跃的主要原因。截至今年6月，外国人和永久居民已经从去年的167万，增加6.7%至179万。“这虽然比2007年和2008年超过10%的增幅低，不过应该还是会为租用市场提供很好的支持力量。”

他说，由于政府继续吸引生物医药业、石油化学业和医疗保健业的外来投资，因此这些行业仍不断招徕新的外籍专业人才前来，不过，他们大多都是单身人士，房屋津贴也比较低。

根据市建局的数据，整体私宅租金在今年第二季下跌了2.2%，跌幅比第二季的5.2%明显放缓。第一太平戴维斯说，顶尖豪宅的租金跌幅相对小，只有0.9%，由每平方英尺4.70元减少至4.67元。赖恩庭认为，这是今年来最小的季度跌幅，意味豪宅领域的租金正在巩固中。

由于新加坡的经济展望正在改善，他认为，全岛的租金水平应该会在中短期内进一步稳定下来，停止下跌。

Can rental market set a new high in 2010?
The record set in 2009 seems very tough to break.

[bargain hunter]

sure can. more new units means more turnover.

Can rental market set a new high in 2010?
The record set in 2009 seems very tough to break.

[proud owner]

Can rental market set a new high in 2010?
The record set in 2009 seems very tough to break.

hihi reporter ...


just wondering .. will this similar piece of news be in Straits times or BT ?

[sltc]

Watch out for the upcoming JLL Auction. There are some Mortgagee's Sales. Sign of owners loosing holding power and banks have to forced sell ?

Jones Lang LaSalle Auction List 15 December 09

Thank you for your interest in Jones Lang LaSalle Auction. I have attached the updated auction list for your reference.
Date: 15 December09 (Tuesday)
Location: Connection 1, Level 3, Amara Hotel
Time: 2:30pm

PRIVATE TREATY SALE

Location: #23-30 CITYLIGHTS, 90 JELLICOE ROAD - D08
Tenure:

99 years wef 5/1/2004

Sales Type:

Mortgagee's Sale (Vacant Possession)

Floor Area:

Approx. 926 sq ft

Description:

2 bedroom apartment with seaview/bayview, MRT

Contact:

9387 9668/ 9654 5980

Location: #01-07 CHANTILLY RISE, 82 HILLVIEW AVENUE - D23
Tenure:

Freehold

Sales Type:

Mortgagee's Sale (Vacant Possession)

Floor Area:

Approx. 1,798 sq ft

Description:

4 bedroom apartment with pool view

Contact:

6494 3867/ 9387 9668

Location: #09-05 SOUTHAVEN I, 41 HINDHEDE WALK - D21
Tenure:

99 years wef 1/8/1994

Sales Type:

Mortgagee's Sale (Vacant Possession)

Floor Area:

Approx. 2,960 sq ft

Description:

2 storey penthouse with roof terrace

Contact:

6494 3867/ 9387 9668

[proud owner]

sure can. more new units means more turnover.

high turn over does not necessarily mean higher rental ..

if alot move out to cheaper units ... can also increase the number of rental ..right ?

[bargain hunter]

err, that's what the article is about mah, higher transactions, not higher $ rental. there will be a lot of downgrading and upgrading so i think no. of transactions can set a new record.

high turn over does not necessarily mean higher rental ..

if alot move out to cheaper units ... can also increase the number of rental ..right ?

[proud owner]

err, that's what the article is about mah, higher transactions, not higher $ rental. there will be a lot of downgrading and upgrading so i think no. of transactions can set a new record.

thats right ...


SLTC just posted a auction list ...

theres a citylight with seaview .. vacant possesion some more ...
hhmmm

doesnt look good to me ...

Citylighters all talk until that project got dragon got tiger ... now see how quickly this unit can be snapped up ...

[jlrx]

I just need to pick up my mobile and before I finish my contacts under `A', I can buy 3 new/ under construction projects at costs or 10-15% below purchase costs.

Then it will be good for you.

[Property_Owner]

thats right ...


SLTC just posted a auction list ...

theres a citylight with seaview .. vacant possesion some more ...
hhmmm

doesnt look good to me ...

Citylighters all talk until that project got dragon got tiger ... now see how quickly this unit can be snapped up ...

pal, as what I mention in D7 thread, dun go for citylights

[proud owner]

pal, as what I mention in D7 thread, dun go for citylights

i wont ...thanks for reminding me ..

i used to joke with my friend ..

if we have a unit there .. and need to sell ..i can advertise :

Nice Seaview , near amenities like :
immigration,
casket
short walk to cheap lighting shops

ok stop here before i get bashed

dont worry i wont buy there ...

if its so good and have good rental like they say ... why still have a seaview unit out for auction ?

owner should just offer out at 1500 psf ... maybe fellow citylighters will buy

[bargain hunter]

i saw the unit in last month's list already. but i didn't want to enquire what is the asking price because its under "Sale by Private Treaty". I also don't want to add to the number of enquiry calls which agents/auctioneers are getting.

thats right ...


SLTC just posted a auction list ...

theres a citylight with seaview .. vacant possesion some more ...
hhmmm

doesnt look good to me ...

Citylighters all talk until that project got dragon got tiger ... now see how quickly this unit can be snapped up ...

[stalingrad]

i saw the unit in last month's list already. but i didn't want to enquire what is the asking price because its under "Sale by Private Treaty". I also don't want to add to the number of enquiry calls which agents/auctioneers are getting.

You are a true bargain hunter. yes, don't let them think anyone is interested.

[Reporter]

Singapore employment outlook to recover: Manpower Inc.
Bloomberg
Singapore
Tuesday, 8 December 2009, 08:52



Singapore’s new employment outlook may rebound to the level it was before the global financial crisis, led by the financial, insurance and property industries, the local press said, citing Manpower Inc..

A survey by the consultancy showed that the net employment outlook, or the difference between the number of companies likely to recruit and those expected to cut jobs, rose to a seasonally adjusted 26% for the first quarter, the reports said. That’s 9% points higher than the previous quarter, the reports said.

Singapore’s outlook is the 2nd-most positive after India among 35 territories surveyed by the consultancy, according to the reports.

[Tony Blair]

Elections are coming next year.More good news coming.

[Reporter]

No asset bubble yet but HK government is concerned
Government says financial system sound and monitoring situation
The Business Times
Tuesday, 8 December 2009


39 Conduit Road

Hong Kong’s government is ‘very concerned’ about the risk of an asset bubble developing although a bubble is not apparent yet, Financial Secretary John Tsang told legislators yesterday, referring to a surge in the city’s property prices this year.

Residential property prices have jumped 30% this year, and price gains for luxury property have topped 40%, as the city has drawn massive capital inflows – amounting to a record US$73 billion between October last year and Nov 13 this year – with foreign investors attracted by its low interest rates.

Wealthy mainland Chinese have also been snapping up luxury Hong Kong apartments.

Mr Tsang said that the financial system was sound and the city could cope with capital inflows and outflows but echoed Chief Executive Donald Tsang and central bank chief Norman Chan, who have also warned recently about the risk of an asset bubble developing.

‘We are very concerned about the risk of an asset bubble,’ the financial secretary said. ‘The risk is there but it is not very apparent.’

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority recently reduced the mortgage limit for luxury property to 60% from 70% to try and cool the market, and mortgage demand has eased from a few months ago.

A government economist told legislators that speculation in the property market was not too heated and demand mainly user-oriented, with 90% of transactions for mass-market property. Housing affordability meanwhile was above a 20-year average.

Mr Tsang said that the government would monitor the situation but did not comment on the possibility of further measures to reduce the risk of an asset bubble.

[bargain hunter]

actually i see no reason why the unit cannot be rented out. If he bought at the peak at 1350psf for 926sq ft, even if he owes the bank 1m, surely 4k+ in rental can cover already? has rents dropped so much that a 2 bedder at citylights can't even fetch 4k? i did not think so before.

i wont ...thanks for reminding me ..

i used to joke with my friend ..

if we have a unit there .. and need to sell ..i can advertise :

Nice Seaview , near amenities like :
immigration,
casket
short walk to cheap lighting shops

ok stop here before i get bashed

dont worry i wont buy there ...

if its so good and have good rental like they say ... why still have a seaview unit out for auction ?

owner should just offer out at 1500 psf ... maybe fellow citylighters will buy

[HP65]

thats right ...


SLTC just posted a auction list ...

theres a citylight with seaview .. vacant possesion some more ...
hhmmm

doesnt look good to me ...

Citylighters all talk until that project got dragon got tiger ... now see how quickly this unit can be snapped up ...

With all the hype generated by the sports hub etc, my agent/ friend asked me to view this particular unit. Condition is awfull as previous tenant definitely didnt take care of the unit at all. For a 1 yr old proj, you probably need to spend at least $5-10k to rectify the unit's condition, eg change the bathroom's sink, deck out the planter, coverup the damaged walls etc. Looks like the tenant left in a huff or forced to leave

Even though its on the 23rd floor, its extremely noisy from the busy junction, especially when vehicles accelerate when the lights turn green. In other words, its most of the time since its a major junction, one side turn red, the other side turn green.

But the worst turnoff of this unit is the neighbours. When I view this unit, the next door neighbour left the door open and I was appalled to see that there were easily 10-15 pairs of smelly and dirty sneakers at the door. I wonder how many people is staying/ renting the neighbour's unit. I saw similiar situation at my friend's unit at City Sq Residences. Guess the owners need to rent out to many more people to cover the purchase price. I for sure would not want to stay in such environment.

The agent asked me to try $1.1 mio to close with the bank. I didnt bother to offer at all.....