Junior
Can we ting ting another 43 years back to ... 1936? Pool our money to start out a small bank and name it Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation?Originally Posted by Property_Owner
Look at the profits for OCBC in 1936 ... (audited 20th April 1937).
It made ... $908,155 !!!
Junior
Or you could try to find a past-Singapore in a present-Africa or Timbutu.. and start your "Walmart", "UOB" and "Far East" .Can we ting ting another 43 years back to ... 1936? Pool our money to start out a small bank and name it Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation?
Look at the profits for OCBC in 1936 ... (audited 20th April 1937).
It made ... $908,155 !!!
Newbie
Help? to buy or to wait
Am so confused, whether to buy or wait. Am looking at the Bukit Timah area, but budget is only about 1.7m. Can I get anything decent there. I would rather buy in 9,10, 11. I think they weather the storm better.
Anyone know of any good properties there? Shall I wait, or go ahead. Just sold my HDB, made a cool profit of 200k...
F01 N54 Sheer Driving Pleasure
Let's assume you have decided to buy a CCR property (e.g. D9, D10, D11, etc.). Would you buy it before or after the preview of CCR MBS?
I asked because my Malaysian friends have decided to do it before. I just wanna get a better feel of the ground.
F01 N54 Sheer Driving Pleasure
China’s housing prices to rise next year: government's top think tank
PropertyGuru
Wednesday, 18 November 2009
Housing prices in China will continue to increase next year due to a stronger inflationary expectations and the surge in bank lending, said the government’s top think tank yesterday.
But the property market may flow back slightly and become stable in the second half of next year, after the country implements its tighter monetary policy, said Ni Pengfei, a researcher from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
“Our judgment is that property prices will keep rising in 2010, but that there will be some volatility,” he said during a press conference to launch the CASS annual housing market report.
The lending activity of several banks would be on full display in the early part of next year, with the monetary policy still relatively loose, giving enough cash for property purchases, said Mr. Ni.
On top of it, the rising inflation expectations would trigger Chinese investors to pour down cash in assets, especially in property that would benefit from the rising price levels, he added.
Housing prices in the country’s 70 biggest cities increased by 3.9% in October compared to last year, the fastest rate of property inflation since September 2008.
While China’s long-term urbanization program supported the property market, the affordability of its housing projects remained a big concern for ordinary Chinese. Local media has also debated whether the current housing prices, at a high level in some markets, were suitable.
Last year, Beijing introduced several policies to aid the real estate market, from reducing mortgage rates and down payments to making it easier for residents to sell their houses.
"The increase in bank lending, not the policies given by the government, was the main factor for the recovery in the real estate market," said Mr. Ni.
But he noted that Beijing must keep its property stimulus policies to ensure it benefited ordinary citizens who try to acquire homes, and not the speculators who are looking for a quick profit.
Newbie
Paul B. Farrell
Nov. 17, 2009, 12:01 a.m. EST
Wall Street's 2012 meltdown sweepstakes
Don't say we didn't warn you this time -- a new crash is dead ahead
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- It's coming in 2012: Another, bigger meltdown of Wall Street's "too-greedy-to-fail" banks. No, this is not another fanatical warning about that Dec. 21, 2012 end-of-days prediction based on the Mayan calendar, though you may well ask "Who will survive?"
Here is what's happening: History is repeating itself. Wall Street's soul-sickness is setting up a new meltdown. Dead ahead. Be prepared.
Economy is back on track
Stronger retail sales and other indicators suggest the U.S. economy is back on track for moderate growth with low inflation. Michael Stead, of Bank of the West, says retailers should post satisfactory sales for the holiday season. (Nov. 16)
My track record speaks for itself. Back on March 20, 2000, my column headline read: "Next crash? Sorry, you'll never hear it coming." Bull's eye: The dot-com bubble popped at 11,722. The economy collapsed. A 30-month recession. Markets lost $8 trillion. Today the market is still below that 2000 peak. Factor in inflation and Wall Street's "too-greedy-too-fail" banks have lost about 30% of your retirement nest eggs in this decade. Incompetent? Clueless? No, Wall Street is a bunch of crooks without consciences.
Since 2000, my columns have covered many warnings of major debt accumulation, market meltdowns, and the psychological failings of Wall Street's greedy, myopic brains. Last June we summarized 20 predictions made between 2000 and 2007 warning of a subprime meltdown coming. Oddly, no one seemed to be listening to all the warnings from leading minds like Buffett, Grantham, Gross, Faber, Shilling, Roubini, Fed governors, and many more. Was that a repeat of 2000 with no one listening?
Suddenly it hit me: It's just the opposite: Everyone is listening and everybody knew a crash was coming -- but we were in a trance, including Washington's bosses. Bernanke, Bush, Paulson, Greenspan all heard it. So did Wall Street, and Main Street.
Unfortunately America's collective brain was addicted to the adrenaline rush of gambling in a risky bull. The euphoria is intoxicating. We were caught up in a game of musical chairs, squeezing out every last dollar of return, blind to the catastrophe ahead until caught by surprise. Unfortunately, Wall Street lacked a moral compass and stole trillions from American taxpayers. Today, the only lesson Wall Street has learned is "greed is good." Now the beginning of the end has become a moral tragedy that is setting the stage for an implosion of Wall Street, capitalism and our economy circa 2012.
Everyone's still listening, still in a trance
Yes, another meltdown is coming; it's inevitable. This time, I've decided to do more periodic updates -- a watch list of alerts, warnings and predictions. Just like the updates done for over a decade, except this time we're more aware that few in power will listen, not Wall Street, not Washington, not Corporate America. But you must.
Recently a bright idea came to me: a new way to present these predictions. My wife was working all day at a hospital in Templeton, Calif., so I parked myself in the Café Vio in nearby Paso Robles, with two huge briefcases of research files on bubbles, debt, derivatives, behavioral economics and lots more. While trying to make sense of the materials, the headlines themselves started telling a fascinating story. Here's an edited montage of their staccato warnings.
Read fast and "feel" the message:
Financial Times: "Second Great Depression [is] still possible."
The economy's "spiral is captured in a Titanic metaphor ... unsinkable."
BusinessWeek: "Next bubble could come sooner than you think."
From Reinhart and Rogoff: "This time is different." But it never is.
Bloomberg: "Citi's 'near death' hoard signals lower profits."
Citi hoarding $244 billion in cash "as if another crisis were on way."
Wall Street Journal: "Three decades of subsidized risk."
Gasparino's "The Sellout:" Greed, mismanagement killed financial system.
SeekingAlpha: "Crisis lessons forgotten in new speculation."
We prop up trash stocks Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG; learned nothing.
USA Today: "Wall Street bailouts ... business as usual"
Warning: "Too big to fail" protections guarantee another crash down the road.
Boston.com: "Why capitalism fails ... why it will happen again."
Economist says American capitalism "contains seeds of own destruction."
MarketWatch: "Einhorn bets on major currency 'death spiral.'"
Hedger bet against Lehman. Now against dollar. Says "break up too-big-to-fail" banks.
Forbes: "Be prepared for worst ... repeating Great Depression."
Expect "GD2" says Congressman Ron Paul, author, "The Revolution," "End the Fed."
New Republic: "Next financial crisis coming; we made it worse."
Former IMF economist: "Bernanke soft landing, sowing seeds of next crisis."
Wall Street Journal: "The economy is still at the brink."
Moral hazard: No CEOs of failed banks indicted ... even paid millions.
BusinessWeek: "What happens if the dollar crashes?"
Trade wars break out, banks collapse. Cheap dollars are killing us.
Pimco Investment Outlook: "On the course to a new normal."
Gross's "new normal:" spending, stocks down, savings up, banks riskier.
Economix, New York Times: "Finance gone wild."
Simon Johnson: Wall Street's "pathological" power over Washington.
Vanity Fair: "Wall Street lays another egg."
Ferguson: "Math models ignored history, human nature," failed, repeating.
Clusterstock: "10 bubbles in the making."
Fed's toxic debt, gold, emerging markets, ETFs, China, securitization, more!
Rolling Stone: "The great American bubble machine."
Taibbi: Goldman's a giant vampire stealing trillions with "gangster economics."
Temasek Hedge: Roubini predicts bubble, hates equities.
Economist sees "bigger bubble than before" as Fed wastes taxpayer trillions.
CNN/HuffPost: "Wall Street made mess, big bucks on clean-up."
Michael Lewis says "they're too powerful ... we're in for day of reckoning."
Vanity Fair: "Wall Street's toxic message: capitalism failed."
Stiglitz: Wall Street writes self-serving rules, puts global economy at risk.
MarketWatch: "Wasting our chance to fix the banking system."
America's got a "banking system that's just a ticking time bomb."
Mother Jones: "Could cap'n'trade cause new meltdown?"
Yes, and Goldman sees huge profits if this $1 trillion market is created.
Fortune: "We owe what? The next crisis, America's debt."
Yes, "chronic deficits are putting America on the path to fiscal collapse."
Time: "America and its deficits: Are we broke yet?"
Justin Fox, author, "Myth of the Rational Market:" "We'll soon find out."
HuffPost.com: "Main Street jobs? First kill Wall Street jobs."
"Looting of America" author: Wall Street got rich destroying Main Street.
The Nation: "Creative destruction on Wall Street."
Greiner: They treats problem as "psychological," solved by "happy talk."
Kiplinger: New black swan triggers next financial crisis.
Money manager Bob Rodriquez: "Next bubble already growing."
The Atlantic: "Why Wall Street always blows it."
Blodget learned a lesson, but Street chief executives still clueless, no lessons learned.
Questions for today: Do you believe a new crash is coming in 2012, give or take a year? Will it trigger the "Second Great Depression?" And how big a factor is Wall Street's greed and lack of morals?
Newbie
DEALTALK - Asian IPO fatigue hits India, elsewhere
Thu Nov 5, 2009 4:35pm IST
By Narayanan Somasundaram and Prashant Mehra
HONG KONG/MUMBAI (Reuters) - An ache has hit the belly of investors who feasted on initial public offerings in Asia, in a sign the primary equity window that saw a big revival two quarters ago is begining to quickly shut.
The indigestion is becoming a familiar trend across India, China and Australia, making a case for firms forming a long IPO pipeline to trim their high price expectations.
More than 30 companies plan to list in either the Hong Kong and Indian markets over the next few months.
The Hong Kong list includes big names such as Rusal, Las Vegas Sands and China Minsheng Banking Corp, and a clutch of property firms. Reliance Infratel, a unit of Reliance Communications, and Vedanta's Sterlite Energy are among big Indian offers planned.
"The pricing has been pretty aggressive. Hopefully this market volatility will prevent some of them from launching their IPOs now," said Ho Yin Pong, a Hong Kong-based portfolio manager at RCM Asia Pacific.
He feels he can pick up the same stocks, especially the Indian ones, cheaper in the secondary market.
Last week, Deutsche Bank pulled out all stops to cover a $100 million IPO of Indian cable television firm Den Networks, which managed to scramble through in the final hours with huge support from India's state run life insurance giant.
"That was a real close one. DB (Deutsche Bank) did rally us to bail out the issue," an official at Life Insurance Corp of India, which put in bids for nearly a quarter of Den Networks, said on the condition of anonymity.
"The pricing was a tad stiff, but we did spot the long-term opportunity."
Deutsche Bank was the primary arranger for the share offering, which closed on the day another Indian firm Indiabulls Power had a disastrous listing.
A Deutsche Bank spokesman declined to comment on the deal.
Spokespeople from LIC, which plans to pump in 500 billion rupees ($10.6 billion) into Indian equity this year, could not be reached for comment.
Investor appetite began waning after a rash of offerings in the Chinese property sector and Indian power sector had tepid openings.
Australia has also seen a cooling in demand for new offerings, with shares of department store chain, Myer Holdings, falling 9 percent in their debut earlier this month. Its price to earnings ratio was a tad below a main competitor.
Asian property listing are seen particularly vulnerable to the softening sentiment, with at least 16 Indian developers and a bunch of Chinese real estate firms eying listings.
"Even if one or two of these fail, it will be disastrous for the industry, because the confidence that is gaining now, will be hit," said Pranay Vakil, India head for global property services firm Knight Frank,
Glorious Property (0845.HK: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 23 percent on its Hong Kong debut this month, Shenzhen-based Excellence Real Estate Group Ltd last week shelved plans for an up to $1 billion Hong Kong IPO month, blaming market conditions.
That should give caution to companies waiting in the wings to cash in on the equity rally this year, which has boosted the MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan stocks index nearly 60 percent so far this year despite the recent correction.
But falling markets and continuing uncertainty about the health of the economy are spooking investor sentiment. Asian markets have fallen 7 percent from their 2009 peak last month.
"The opportunity is shrinking, fading fast. Too many at the same time," said a banker who has helped arrange about $5 billion in new share sales so far this year for his Indian clients.
"The answer to sustain the momentum is attractive pricing but I would lose my job if I insist that." The banker, who is not authorised to speak to media, did not want to be named.
Global recession is coming....
Articles
Is now the time to buy a Singapore property
Has the Singapore property market stabilized? Is this the time to buy? Getty Goh shares his thoughts.
23 July 2009
As the founder of a real estate research and investment consultancy, I am constantly faced with this question, "Is now the time to buy a Singapore property ?"
As recent as 2 weeks ago, I believed that it was still a bit too early to enter the Singapore property market. Although developers have been reporting strong sales since early 2009, my firm has maintained that prices had not stabilised. Hence we were not surprised when URA released the flash estimate for 2009 Q2 Private Property Price Index (PPPI) showing a drop in the index for a fourth consecutive quarter. In our view, a market recovery can only happen if both transaction volume and transacted property prices increase. Until recently, we have only seen strong sales volume.
So is now a time to buy?
We believe that it may be timely to enter the property market now for the following reasons.
- Banks are increasing their lending activity: The main reason behind the drop in property prices early this year was due to the banks' unwillingness to lend buyers money to purchase properties. However, we have noted that banks have resumed lending and are prepared to support higher property valuation, which will in turn increase property prices. This is indicative of the financial institutions' positive outlook for the future and they will continue to support higher valuation until properties become overpriced.
- Property Gains Tax: Singapore does not have capital gains tax; hence profits made from investments generally will not be taxed. However, the Inland Revenue Authority of Singapore (IRAS) will tax gains if it considers an individual to be a trader who sells his properties frequently. How IRAS had determined if a person is an investor or a trader was unclear until recently. On 9 Jul 2009, IRAS issued a press release which stated that a person would not be subjected to property gains tax if he did not sell more than one property within a 4-year period. Although the government has stepped out to say that this policy is simply intended to add clarity to an existing practice, it has been perceived to be an anti-speculation measure by some investors.
While it will make some would-be specuvestors more cautious in entering the property market, we believe that this policy will make potential sellers more reluctant to part with their properties without significant profits. Those who could not afford to hold would have sold their properties off in the earlier part of the year. Most of those who are currently holding on to their properties are likely prepared for the long haul and do not need to sell their investments for a deep discount. This in turn has resulted in higher asking prices, as observed in the last two weeks. Hence, we expect resale prices to start increasing as the opportunity cost for property investments has significantly increased
- Property prices are off their peak: Although current resale property prices have stabilised and inched up since Feb 2009, they have dropped significantly since the property market peak of 2008. For some developments, prices have dropped by as much as 20% to 30%. Thus, an investor can be assured that he is not paying high prices for his property as there is still room for price to increase.
Barring any unforeseen circumstances, we do not think property prices will drop as "spectacularly" as the early part of 2009. Thus there is currently a window of opportunity to find good deals as high net-worth foreign investors are still not back in full force and there are still quality properties sold for value-for-money prices. It is important to note that buying a money-making property is not simply entering the market at the right time and there are factors such as location and price to consider. However, if you have been sitting on the fence for the past few months, it may be time for you to get on your feet and start looking.
Good Luck,
Getty
Senior
Buyers complaining hardly any foreclosures in singapore. Trillion dollar household net worth unshakable. Let them leverage up so that there can be more foreclosures in the future. Anyway, our warnings will fall on deaf ears. Like what the article says, everyone is in a trance.
Wall Street's 2012 meltdown sweepstakes
Don't say we didn't warn you this time -- a new crash is dead ahead
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- It's coming in 2012: Another, bigger meltdown of Wall Street's "too-greedy-to-fail" banks. No, this is not another fanatical warning about that Dec. 21, 2012 end-of-days prediction based on the Mayan calendar, though you may well ask "Who will survive?"
Here is what's happening: History is repeating itself. Wall Street's soul-sickness is setting up a new meltdown. Dead ahead. Be prepared.
Economy is back on track
Stronger retail sales and other indicators suggest the U.S. economy is back on track for moderate growth with low inflation. Michael Stead, of Bank of the West, says retailers should post satisfactory sales for the holiday season. (Nov. 16)
My track record speaks for itself. Back on March 20, 2000, my column headline read: "Next crash? Sorry, you'll never hear it coming." Bull's eye: The dot-com bubble popped at 11,722. The economy collapsed. A 30-month recession. Markets lost $8 trillion. Today the market is still below that 2000 peak. Factor in inflation and Wall Street's "too-greedy-too-fail" banks have lost about 30% of your retirement nest eggs in this decade. Incompetent? Clueless? No, Wall Street is a bunch of crooks without consciences.
Since 2000, my columns have covered many warnings of major debt accumulation, market meltdowns, and the psychological failings of Wall Street's greedy, myopic brains. Last June we summarized 20 predictions made between 2000 and 2007 warning of a subprime meltdown coming. Oddly, no one seemed to be listening to all the warnings from leading minds like Buffett, Grantham, Gross, Faber, Shilling, Roubini, Fed governors, and many more. Was that a repeat of 2000 with no one listening?
Suddenly it hit me: It's just the opposite: Everyone is listening and everybody knew a crash was coming -- but we were in a trance, including Washington's bosses. Bernanke, Bush, Paulson, Greenspan all heard it. So did Wall Street, and Main Street.
Unfortunately America's collective brain was addicted to the adrenaline rush of gambling in a risky bull. The euphoria is intoxicating. We were caught up in a game of musical chairs, squeezing out every last dollar of return, blind to the catastrophe ahead until caught by surprise. Unfortunately, Wall Street lacked a moral compass and stole trillions from American taxpayers. Today, the only lesson Wall Street has learned is "greed is good." Now the beginning of the end has become a moral tragedy that is setting the stage for an implosion of Wall Street, capitalism and our economy circa 2012.
Everyone's still listening, still in a trance
Yes, another meltdown is coming; it's inevitable. This time, I've decided to do more periodic updates -- a watch list of alerts, warnings and predictions. Just like the updates done for over a decade, except this time we're more aware that few in power will listen, not Wall Street, not Washington, not Corporate America. But you must.
Recently a bright idea came to me: a new way to present these predictions. My wife was working all day at a hospital in Templeton, Calif., so I parked myself in the Café Vio in nearby Paso Robles, with two huge briefcases of research files on bubbles, debt, derivatives, behavioral economics and lots more. While trying to make sense of the materials, the headlines themselves started telling a fascinating story. Here's an edited montage of their staccato warnings.
Read fast and "feel" the message:
Financial Times: "Second Great Depression [is] still possible."
The economy's "spiral is captured in a Titanic metaphor ... unsinkable."
BusinessWeek: "Next bubble could come sooner than you think."
From Reinhart and Rogoff: "This time is different." But it never is.
Bloomberg: "Citi's 'near death' hoard signals lower profits."
Citi hoarding $244 billion in cash "as if another crisis were on way."
Wall Street Journal: "Three decades of subsidized risk."
Gasparino's "The Sellout:" Greed, mismanagement killed financial system.
SeekingAlpha: "Crisis lessons forgotten in new speculation."
We prop up trash stocks Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG; learned nothing.
USA Today: "Wall Street bailouts ... business as usual"
Warning: "Too big to fail" protections guarantee another crash down the road.
Boston.com: "Why capitalism fails ... why it will happen again."
Economist says American capitalism "contains seeds of own destruction."
MarketWatch: "Einhorn bets on major currency 'death spiral.'"
Hedger bet against Lehman. Now against dollar. Says "break up too-big-to-fail" banks.
Forbes: "Be prepared for worst ... repeating Great Depression."
Expect "GD2" says Congressman Ron Paul, author, "The Revolution," "End the Fed."
New Republic: "Next financial crisis coming; we made it worse."
Former IMF economist: "Bernanke soft landing, sowing seeds of next crisis."
Wall Street Journal: "The economy is still at the brink."
Moral hazard: No CEOs of failed banks indicted ... even paid millions.
BusinessWeek: "What happens if the dollar crashes?"
Trade wars break out, banks collapse. Cheap dollars are killing us.
Pimco Investment Outlook: "On the course to a new normal."
Gross's "new normal:" spending, stocks down, savings up, banks riskier.
Economix, New York Times: "Finance gone wild."
Simon Johnson: Wall Street's "pathological" power over Washington.
Vanity Fair: "Wall Street lays another egg."
Ferguson: "Math models ignored history, human nature," failed, repeating.
Clusterstock: "10 bubbles in the making."
Fed's toxic debt, gold, emerging markets, ETFs, China, securitization, more!
Rolling Stone: "The great American bubble machine."
Taibbi: Goldman's a giant vampire stealing trillions with "gangster economics."
Temasek Hedge: Roubini predicts bubble, hates equities.
Economist sees "bigger bubble than before" as Fed wastes taxpayer trillions.
CNN/HuffPost: "Wall Street made mess, big bucks on clean-up."
Michael Lewis says "they're too powerful ... we're in for day of reckoning."
Vanity Fair: "Wall Street's toxic message: capitalism failed."
Stiglitz: Wall Street writes self-serving rules, puts global economy at risk.
MarketWatch: "Wasting our chance to fix the banking system."
America's got a "banking system that's just a ticking time bomb."
Mother Jones: "Could cap'n'trade cause new meltdown?"
Yes, and Goldman sees huge profits if this $1 trillion market is created.
Fortune: "We owe what? The next crisis, America's debt."
Yes, "chronic deficits are putting America on the path to fiscal collapse."
Time: "America and its deficits: Are we broke yet?"
Justin Fox, author, "Myth of the Rational Market:" "We'll soon find out."
HuffPost.com: "Main Street jobs? First kill Wall Street jobs."
"Looting of America" author: Wall Street got rich destroying Main Street.
The Nation: "Creative destruction on Wall Street."
Greiner: They treats problem as "psychological," solved by "happy talk."
Kiplinger: New black swan triggers next financial crisis.
Money manager Bob Rodriquez: "Next bubble already growing."
The Atlantic: "Why Wall Street always blows it."
Blodget learned a lesson, but Street chief executives still clueless, no lessons learned.
Questions for today: Do you believe a new crash is coming in 2012, give or take a year? Will it trigger the "Second Great Depression?" And how big a factor is Wall Street's greed and lack of morals?
Newbie
Some highlights of a fund report from one of the CIO that I follow. The points are not necessary linked.
This zero-hour for America has perhaps arrived sooner than many had anticipated. It was heralded by the Japanese experience. Japan is the bogeyman that confronts all academic thinkers, regardless of creed, from Krugman to Ferguson, as well as all who would choose to intervene in the workings of the economy. In a debate I had with Mr. Ferguson in London last month, he claimed that Japan was an extreme outlier and could be ignored. Really?
No ***, no drugs, no wine, no woman, no fun, no sin, no wonder it’s dark
Everyone around me is a total stranger.
Everyone avoids me like a psyched loan-ranger
That's why I'm turning Japanese,
I think I'm turning Japanese,
I really think so
The Vapors, 1980
Japan has championed both Friedman and Keynes. They have built bridges to nowhere and dropped ¥en notes from helicopters for twenty years and still they have nothing to show for it. Clearly the additional return from ¥en debt in Japan is close to zero and it exposes the nightmare of interventionists everywhere: it may just be that there are no policy remedies for a debt deflation. So to elaborate further, our chances of financial success are greatest under conditions where investors believe government spending will succeed but in reality it fails.
This has been the Japanese experience to date. However, everything in our economic life exists at the margin, and the consequences of just maintaining the leverage constant would be a very low delta in nominal GDP growth. Consider that the Japanese, under these very circumstances, have managed to grow nominal GDP at just 1% compound since 1990.
And in a similar way, the rise in leverage has probably misrepresented the truly recurring nature of nominal GDP. Now, if we repeat the Japanese experience then it is possible that nominal US GDP will rise from $14trn today to perhaps just $16trn in ten years time. Along similar lines, the German government does not anticipate its economy exceeding its previous GDP high until 2014. And yet it is as though the other surplus countries are behaving like Bernie’s former investors who, believing in the stated NAV and its promise of more of the same (i.e., predictable and attractive compound growth rates), were happy to spend lavishly. The Chinese are building capacity to meet a world where US nominal GDP is $25trn in ten years time. I fear they could be in for a nasty shock
Clearly it would be inappropriate to annualise the production of the US steel industry in the fourth quarter of last year when capacity utilisation plummeted to just 32%. So consider, instead, the annual run rate this year from January to August. This was a period of stabilisation in tandem with the cash-for-clunkers program, which boosted the industry's largest customer, the car sector. It is quite chilling to note that steel production in America is on a par with output back in 1938, when GDP was a mere 7% of its current size. The industry's run rate dropped to a paltry 13% during the Great Depression. However, output only troughed at its 1908 level; a twenty year retracement that is a far cry from our 70 year retracement. So the physical developments in the western steel markets should raise some concern
The Norwegians continued with their tale of woe: a couple of million tonnes of inventory remains unaccounted for on the world stage and are believed to be hidden in cheaper warehouses in Russia. The rationale behind this is the same as the rationale used by LME speculators. Furthermore, the big Russian players like Rusal are under intense pressure from Putin not to cut capacity (check out ‘Putin bitch slaps Deripaska’ on http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PprlM5R3Hbg), and are rumoured to be surviving only by not paying their electricity bills.
To make matters even worse, the Chinese have stopped importing and are eager to ramp up domestic aluminium production. They havethe capacity to produce another 13mt annually, which is equivalent to 52% of global production. Lastly, there is the fact that Rio Tinto bought Alcan right at the very top of the cycle, though they dare not admit it is a terrible business.
The Norwegians suffer the most pain at present, but if the dollar were to strengthen Alcoa could conceivably go bust. Their dollar cost is the company’s only competitive advantage. Let us not forget Alcoa has the most exposure to aircraft construction and still has $10bn of gross debt lording over an almost equivalent market cap. Imagine that we have not even considered their pension liabilities. Yet the Alcoa CDS trades at 200 basis points, down from its high of 1200 earlier this year. Why?!
But first, it may require the spectacle of seeing Japan implode and so we have been actively positioning the Fund to profit from such a scenario. As many of you know, the fiscal situation in Japan is rapidly rising out of control. Government tax receipts are down 14% over the last 12 months; government spending is twice the receipts and the trade surplus appears structurally impaired. We have to go back to 1991 to find the last time they ran a primary surplus sufficient to meet their national debt’s interest payments. Today they would need the equivalent of 4.4% of GDP. Failing this, and assuming they do not shorten the debt maturity of the JGBs that they sell to the public, then the ratio of public debt to GDP is guaranteed to rise further. It is currently 196% of GDP with the IMF estimating that it will rise to 234% by 2014.
This situation has not gone unnoticed. The sovereign dollar default swap has doubled to 75bps since August, and Japan is now themost expensive credit to insure against a dollar default in the G10. However, we have been active buyers of corporate debt default swaps. We find it remarkable that one can insure highly leveraged utilities at 23bps despite their considerable yen debt. Consider the Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501 JP) with a market capitalisation of $32bn and net debt of $81bn. The debt is 7x EBITDA, the interest cover is 1.9x, and the average interest cost for now is thankfully just 1.9% p.a.
Newbie
Apologies for not writing much recently but I was out/on vacation/travelling over virtually all of June and July, as well as the whole of Aug. Further, the new comment below was written in the 1st week of Sept and was set to be released on Sept 7th, but sadly my dear Father passed away on Sunday 6th, as a result of which I have been out for the last fortnight. The release of my comment was therefore delayed until I got back into the seat, to deal with questions etc. I mention my father because he was the man who helped make me the cautious guy I am. He taught me to always question the consensus, he taught about the evils of too much debt and big government, about the willingness of our leaders to 'spin' us - way before 'spin doctor' was even a label in the English language, and it was he who taught me that, over the course of human history, the masses have always looked for the 'it's different this time' angle when, almost without exception, it's never really that 'different' - the lyrics may change a bit, but the tune is nearly always the same. As the mighty Zep put it many years ago, the Song Remains the Same.
The long version of what I have to say is below - please read, hopefully enjoy, and I welcome feedback/questions/comments/abuse/support. The short version - to me - seems to be this: Either Balance Sheets matter or they don't. And if they do, as I think they DO, then the balance sheets that matter are, on one side, the Private Sector, where deleveraging and deflation forces abound, and on the other side the Public Sector, where (IMHO) utterly reckless fiscal and monetary policy is creating the New Bubble - the Public Sector Debt (or Funny Money) Bubble. And in this contest, the key question is whether the Public Sector is WILLING & ABLE to continue its reckless behaviour for long enough and in enough size to offset and then overwhelm the Private Sector's prudence. Wrapped around this debate is how far the Equity/Risk Asset bubble can continue to be blown up in the absence of any real Private Sector investment/spending/growth - ie, the 'Invest Cheap Liquidity in Assets And Hope' Bubble. I think it's about as simple as that. AND my fear (as opposed to my belief), as I have written before (see below), is that the governments of the US and UK in particular will, wrongly in my view, think they have No Limits and are liable to keep printing/monetising/borrowing at will.
HISTORY tells us that this will end in failure, with ugly consequences, the net result being MORE DEBT that needs to be repaid thru vicious spending cuts & higher taxes, a (monetary) inflationary BUST and/or a currency shocker - to be swiftly followed by a longer term Debt Deflationary bust. So, in 1 line, all I think is certain - if you think like me - is that the longer the current bubbles persist & the bigger these bubbles are blown up, the BIGGER the explosion will be when it all goes POP. And realistically, I am talking weeks/moths, NOT qtrs/years. YOU may be smart enough to 'get out' of risk in time, but the overwhelming majority will not. And at that time, there will be NOBODY left to bail us all out......Of course, if the Public Sector gets religion sooner rather than later, we may by-pass the inflationary bust and proceed directly to the debt deflation phase driven by the Private Sector's actions. I think a long period of debt deflation is almost certain, whatever the policy choices now. The only issue is how far the Public Sector will debase/damage its (our!) balance sheet before it sees the follies of its way. My fear, not hope, is that this realisation happens too late and that we get the worst case of deep monetary inflation swiftly leading onto debt deflation. NOBODY has yet been able to tell me why we should not proceed directly to debt deflation, other than some claptrap about how UK and US consumers NEED & have some God given right to borrow and consume. The masses that make up the community of analysts, economist etc that did such a good job into the 07/09 bust (!!) are of course complicit again - and shockingly they are repeating the same grievous error they made back in the 2002/2005 period when they could see no inflation and thus validated the Greenspan Fed's mother of all policy errors. When will folks stop looking at rigged CPI data for proof of inflation??? Has the 2002/2005 episode not taught us that MONETARY RECKLESSNESS, as we had back then and as we are repeating now, will show up in FALSELY INFLATED asset prices - and NOT in the prices of Goods & Services - which, if unchecked, has and will again lead to hideous bubbles which ALWAYS burst badly when policy is set by folks wedded to utterly bogus and what by now should be totally discredited policy think/policy action.
When risk assets top out - level, timing - is always difficult to predict. I think its weeks/months away, and I very much think we are in the deep tail of the risk asset rally. I know a lot a smart folks who think this can go higher and for a bit longer then I think, and I can see the argument. But nearly all the folks who I respect and have talked to for a long time agree that if it goes on for much longer then it will end in a terrible mess. As such I think its time to take off my TRADER hat, which correctly called a decent part of the 09 bounce (but by no means all if it) and put on my INVESTOR hat. With this hat on, it is clear to me that, as we get into Q4 09, and probably for the next 12/18/24 months, I DO NOT want to own 'risk' (credit - esp. HY, equity), I DO NOT want to own USDs and GBPs on a long term basis, and I DO want to look at owning assets in EUROs (and maybe also JPY and AUD). In particular, because the ECB is by far the most credible central bank left when the choice is between the Fed, the ECB and the BoE, it appears to me that the Eurozone will drop into the debt deflation zone sooner rather than later and will by-pass the the MONETARY inflation risks so prevalent in the UK and US, thus on a decent investment horizon, I want to own very long dd govt debt issued from core-Europe, esp. of course Germany and France. I think getting a 4%+ carry on a multi-yr basis on German sovereign risk and ECB prudence makes an awful lot of sense at a time where not much else really has ANY VALUE left.
So, with that cheery intro/summary, read on.....
New Comment Written Sept 4th:
So, back from hols, and one thing is abundantly clear. Whilst the last 2yrs have not been much fun for anyone, it HAS been kinda 'cool' to have been seen not just as a Bear but also a Bear who was early and kinda right all the way thru this timeframe. But NOT anymore. It is clear to me now, based on feedback/comments/discussions/body language etc etc, that something has changed.
People now desperately want to see the back of the bad times (recession, bear markets) and now want to look forward with optimism. Even some folks who have been firmly in the Bob/Kevin camp thru 07, 08 AND 09 to date are getting nervous/shifting positions. You would all be AMAZED at the reactions I have seen from many market professionals to my piece (see below) written before I went away. Of course, some folks get their dose of Bob's World from unauthorised 'usage' by the mass media - for the record, I do NOT as a rule speak to the media, I'd rather focus on clients - and as such will never see everything I write, but even some of those who get my comments in full as clients of RBS have homed in very sharply on the Stop Loss trigger I put in place below - S&P above 1022 for 4 consecutive days. YES, S&P did hold above 1022 for 6 consecutive closes, but each of these closes was pretty marginal, low volume days, where the close was well off the intra-day highs, and of course this week we have so far seen 4 consecutive closes below 1022, by a decent margin too. And that was after a super bullish ISM - could it be that 'real' expectations were/are now getting much more bullish? Or could it be that folks saw the very high Prices Paid line and fear inflation? Or could it be that some folks saw the level of the New Orders line and fear - based on history - that this is the cyclical peak? Time will tell....
Anyway, let me say 1st up that even though its all been pretty marginal, the RISK here is that over the next month or so we see risk assets go even better. This is a TACTICAL call and is NOT a change in the 3/6mth secular call, which REMAINS BEARISH. Andy Chaytor set some levels last week which I am comfortable with - there is a 60/40 chance that S&P trades up to 1120ish by end Sept/early Oct. I think the next month will be volatile and NOT straight line, but on balance the risk is that by month end/early Oct, risk assets will be better. And YES, I know that Sept is seasonally one of the weakest months, that we are already 5% off the Aug highs, and that 'everyone' - even the bulls - think we need a period of pullback/consolidation, but for me the perfect head fake will be a strong (but volatile) Sept.
I do however think that we are VERY MUCH in the tail end of the correction of the Oct 07 to Mar 09 bear move, where S&P lost nearly 60% from peak to trough, and where the correction from the Mar low would, at 1120, represent the 50% retrace. Once what I assume is a bear mrkt correction finishes, over the next month or so, I expect the Bear to return with vengeance and I retain my call for NEW LOWS in equities. That's 550 S&P!!
Please do not forget that vicious 40%/50% retracements are NORMAL in the middle of secular multi-yr bear markets. Look at the charts. Very clearly it is extremely common for sentiment to swing between extreme fear and extreme greed, and it is very common to see secular bearish trends in data punctuated by cyclical - usually govt/central bank/policy inspired - spikes, which can last weeks to months to a qtr or 2. The critical question to answer is what is the secular trend and what is the cyclical trend, and when - assuming they are different - is one giving way to the other.
Why do I remain a secular Bear? Well, for me, I have yet to see ANY meaningful evidence of self-sustaining private sector demand, which I have said for many months is the key to a sustained/secular economic recovery and asset price recovery. All I see is growth and asset price gains driven by the willing and reckless estruction of government and central bank balance sheets. This is NOT sustainable IMHO. I continue to see a private sector that wants to pay down debt, increase savings, cut costs, take less risk. And I see the period of government and central bank driven boom times as rolling over very fast from here on in. Why? Because I think balance sheets and sustainability - govt, central bank AND private sector, MATTER. If they no longer matter, I will be WRONG, and I will have to accept that the policy of 'Print/Borrow/Spend on Rubbish we don't Need' is a limitless phenomena, without consequences, which means there should never be a bear market ever again....I hope this sounds as ridiculous to you reading as it did to me when writing.....
Of course if I am wrong then additional Stop Losses are critical. For me, the next stop loss is at 4 consecutive S&P closes above 1120. I recognise that the weight of opinion/mood is against me, and that it would be far EASIER for me to roll over, get with the herd, and move to the bull camp. But I have yet to see anything that convinces me otherwise - the ISM going back up to 50 was what Kevin told me in Jan/Feb we'd see, by around August time - and critical here is the call on whether balance sheet health & sustainability matters or not. Until I see hard evidence telling me otherwise, I will run the risk of being labelled unpopular/a perma-bear/blind/stupid - take your pick, I have been called much worse...by my wife!
Kevin and I, back in Jan/Feb, said that, at that time, we were in the most risky phase of the bear market and that a 2 qtr rally in risk assets and eco data was the KEY SURPRISE/RISK. We were right. Now, in Sept, I think we stand at the most risky phase of the 'bull' market (correction?), where a 2 qtr dive in risk assets and eco data will be the key surprise/risk. Let's see if we are right, but if not, then clearly something extra-ordinary is happening and I will have to hang my head in shame and go back to school to learn how to teach, cook or drive a taxi.
It is also of course important to highlight that if I am wrong and if what the equity market is telling us is right, than govvie bond yields are going to explode higher, esp. in the UK and US, but this is a discussion for another day....
Disaster delayed? Not for much longer me thinks...SURE, the US has the advantage of a bit more fiscal flexibility and reserve currency status (for now) over say the UK, so I am fully prepared for MORE fiscal and monetary debasement in the US over the next few yrs. But even the US has limits/credibility issues, and if its not already clear it will become clear that the marginal return from such debasement is getting and will continue to get weaker and weaker. Here, the lesson from Japan post the 80s boom are clear - look at the Nikkei charts, a secular multi-yr bear market, punctuated by several vicious 'govt-sponsored' bear market rallies, none of which had any long term success, as the response of the private sector was, each time, to hunker down/tighten up/repair balance sheets in direct response to govt debasement.
My final point: the crossroads is only weeks away, and visibility is poor, thus it is extremely difficult to make big calls at this time, esp. when the call is against the growing weight of opinion. Something extra-ordinary MAY be happening and, joking aside, even if its not, precise timing is always difficult. But based on everything I know and see I would be using any further risk asset rallies over the next month or so as an oppose to sell risk/raise cash/get short, and to flip out of high beta risk low quality risk, into low beta high quality risk.
As ever, all feedback welcome.
Last edited by kali-yuga; 18-11-09 at 21:52.
Newbie
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/367381/Wall-Street-Is-Setting-Investors-Up-for-Another-Hurting-Robert-Prechter-Warns?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,^IXIC,SPY,DIA,QQQQ,GLD
For those that click on the link......do take some time to go through the Visual too at the side by the man himself.
Also not to forget...........
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDOsW9lBEr8
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZL7e1...eature=related
Junior
I also think "a new crash is dead ahead" ... but that is good news !!!
Wall Street's 2012 meltdown sweepstakes
Don't say we didn't warn you this time -- a new crash is dead ahead
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
Then Obama will turn the lever up on his "money printing" machine and print more dollars!
Then ... another round of ...
Like what this guy is doing ...Business Times - 18 Nov 2009
Asia importing asset price inflation: JP Morgan exec
By CHEW XIANG
CHEAP money from developed countries is fuelling asset price inflation in Asian economies, JP Morgan's chief market strategist Jan Loeys said yesterday.
'There is indiscriminate selling of cash and buying of assets,' he said.
What we are all essentially doing is participating in the long term decline of the United States of America.Recovery to continue: Singapore GIC
Reuters
Singapore
Saturday, 14 November 2009, 4.10 pm
Dr Tony Tan, GIC Deputy Chariman and Executive Director -- Photo: Reuters
Sovereign wealth fund the Government of Singapore Investment Corp expects the global economic recovery to extend into 2010 with stronger growth in Asian and Latin American countries that have lower debt levels, Deputy Chairman Tony Tan said on Saturday.
GIC, estimated to be the world's fourth largest wealth fund with assets in excess of $200 billion, has been putting more money in alternative investments such as real estate.
Eventually, the US dollar will become worth less than the Zimbabwe dollar ...
As I am talking now, gold has just broken above US 1,151 per oz. I should have bought more last time when it was below US 300 per oz.
It took many years and pushed at US 1,000 per oz. several times unsuccessfully, then this time ... all hell has broken loose.
Be careful about the Singapore property market.
First push in 1996 (chopped down by Asian Financial Crisis);
Second push in 2000 (chopped down by Dot Com Bust);
Third push in 2007 (chopped down by Lehman Brothers);
Another push is coming ...
F01 N54 Sheer Driving Pleasure
URA Oct 09 Monthly Update
Volumes decline, but prime interest sustains -- OVERWEIGHT Maintain
Brandon Lee
Property, Singapore Equity Investment Research
DMG & Partners Securities
Monday, 16 November 2009
Volumes decline, but prime interest sustains, maintain OVERWEIGHT on property sector. On the back of a traditionally tepid 4Q and recent government’s cooling measures, Oct 09’s sales volume fell 29.0% MoM to 811 units. However, prices were resilient. While the property sector has yet to completely disentangle from domestic policy risks and global asset inflation concerns, we expect the sustainable low interest rates (helped by G-20 leaders’ continued commitment to stimulus plans) and improved macroeconomic environment to provide positive catalysts and support buying appetites. We expect mass prices to remain firm despite the 2,925 units to be released from Jan – Apr 2010 through the 1H10 GLS Confirmed List. The confluence of IRs’ opening, strong real estate fundamentals and more positive economic newsflow should lead to an upswing in high-end prices from current levels over the next 6 months. We reiterate our BUY recommendations for our market-cap weighted top picks – CityDev (S$10.40 TP: S$12.40), Wing Tai (S$1.71 TP: S$2.15) and SC Global (S$1.52 TP: S$2.30).
Sales sank under 1,000 mark. Oct 09 saw a 29.0% MoM slide in sales of primary residential homes to 811 units, representing the first month of < 1,000 sales volume since Jan 09, as well as the third straight monthly decline. The sales activity was dominated by the high-end segment (38%), while units under S$1,000 psf accounted for only 34%, paling in comparison to the 55 – 60% during previous months. YTD, 13,639 units have been sold, making up 90.9% of our CY09F transacted quantum of 15,000 units. Developers mirrored buyers’ subdued appetite, evidenced by a 59.9% MoM plunge in the quantity of launched units.
Plagued by seasonality and policy concerns. We attribute the overall weakened sales to a traditionally slow 4Q and government’s Sep 09 cooling measures. We reckon the lack of new major mass-mid project launches in Oct 09 (aside from 72-unit Suites @ Guillemard and 40-unit City Loft) and developers’ unwillingness to adjust prices of remaining launched but unsold units here had also dampened the sales momentum.
Nonetheless, mass and mid prices were resilient, rising 5.5% QoQ to S$828 psf and remaining unchanged at S$1,055 psf respectively. Looking ahead, with most developers’ mass inventories already depleted and potential units from GLS projects to hit the market in only 9 – 12 months’ time, we expect volumes here to taper off, but prices to remain well-pivoted by resilient HDB prices, improved economy and low interest rates.
Prime buyers’ appetites whetting steadily. Aside from a few luxury units from 28-unit Boulevard Vue, 100-unit Nassim Park Residences and 41-unit Seven Palms, take-up was decent for phased launches of a few new prime projects, i.e. 278-unit Cyan, 175-unit Lincoln Suites and 205-unit Trilight. High-end sales activity continued to hover around the > 300 units’ mark, which we previously stated as a good price support level. True enough, prices here have stayed between S$1,750 – 1,825 psf over the past quarter, up 38 – 44% from the bottom in Apr 09. Nonetheless, this represents 15 – 20% off 4Q07 peaks, which should head upwards over the subsequent 6 months in the wake of the IRs’ opening and improved economy.
Newbie
[quote]
Eventually, the US dollar will become worth less than the Zimbabwe dollar ...
First push in 1996 (chopped down by Asian Financial Crisis);
Second push in 2000 (chopped down by Dot Com Bust);
Third push in 2007 (chopped down by Lehman Brothers);
Another push is coming ...[/quote]
So when is the next pushing section ?
I personally do AGREE on this, eventually I am waiting for it. I would like to see how those so called "American Dream" or "Proud American" will turn out to be when their dollar become worthless........A lesson should be teach to those proud ANG MOH......
(Sorry to be a bit of racist)
Newbie
US public debt tops US$12 trillion for first time
Posted: 18 November 2009 0751 hrs
Photos 1 of 1 ">
US Treasury
WASHINGTON: The US public debt topped 12 trillion dollars for the first time in history, Treasury officials disclosed on Tuesday, moving past a key barrier that raised hackles in Congress.
Treasury data showed Monday's outstanding debt at 12.031 trillion dollars, up from 11.999 trillion on Friday. The ballooning debt reflects the massive deficit spending by the government in an effort to revive an ailing economy over more than one year.
The public debt topped 10 trillion dollars in September 2008. The debt is quickly approaching the statutory limit of 12.104 trillion dollars, meaning Congress would have to raise the ceiling to prevent a shutdown of government operations.
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell said the debt figures represented unwelcome news and that the 787 billion dollar stimulus plan passed earlier this year failed to keep unemployment from topping 10 per cent.
"This should serve as an urgent warning that the government can't keep spending money it doesn't have," he said.
"Thousand-page bills that spend too much, borrow too much and tax too much are exactly the wrong approach for creating jobs. It's my sincere hope that the administration will work with us on bipartisan efforts to reduce the debt, lower health care costs and help employers grow jobs."
F01 N54 Sheer Driving Pleasure
Indonesians? Again?The "upside risk" at the high end residential market is now much greater than the "downside risk".
Property Developers: From Mass Market To High End
Adrian Chua
Equity
DBS Group Research
Tuesday, 17 November 2009
• High end residential market poised to take off in 2010.
• The launch of IR a key driver, while the gap between Spore and Hong Kong high-end has widened.
• Buy stocks with highest exposure to high end segment property developers: SC Global (TP S$1.69), Ho Bee (TP S$1.64), and Wheelock upgraded to BUY (TP$1.98).
Value Emerging for selected High-End Players. We upgraded our calls on SC Global, Ho Bee and Wheelock, developers in the high-end segment of the market. We see value emerging for these companies, following price consolidation in recent months, and this is also backed by our expectation of a pick-up in activity within the high-end segment come 2010.
Why High End? Our positive view on the high-end segment is driven by:
(i) visibility of a higher number of transactions in 3Q09 of >S$2,000 psf;
(ii) government policies tend to focus on the mass-market and not on the high-end, thereby curbing policy risk for the latter;
(iii) the opening of the IRs in early 2010 is expected to be positive for the high-end as this segment attracts the most investment demand, both from foreigners and locals;
(iv) Singapore high-end now looking relatively cheaper to Hong Kong high-end, a similar valuation gap scenario that we saw prior to the 2007 high-end run here, with Singapore high-end being a potential beneficiary to Chinese demand (which did not factor in a big way in 2007 but could be a force to reckon with in 2010); and
(v) segment is less sensitive to an expected increase in interest rates (though historically, interest rate has never borne a strong correlation to demand).
BUY SC Global, Ho Bee and Wheelock. SC Global (TP S$1.69) and Ho Bee (TP S$1.64) are well-positioned to benefit from an upturn in the high-end market, particularly as both companies have exposure to Sentosa, where Resorts World Singapore is expected to open in a couple of months. We have upgraded Wheelock (40% exposure to high-end) to buy from Hold, TP raised to $1.98 based on $3,650psf for Wheelock Place, 20% discount to RNAV of S$2.48.
There is practically no "downside risk" because that had already been priced in, as high end properties are still around 25% below their peak.
Nowadays people are numbed to all these "Lehman"-type news. So what if tomorrow they come up with another piece of news like "Goldman Sach" has gone bankrupt? Who cares?
The "upside risk", on the other hand, is very very high.
Just look at what the Indonesian Chinese had done over the past 40 years.
What prompted the Indonesian Chinese to buy Singapore properties (and some even leaving it empty) over the past 40 years?
The same reason can prompt China Chinese to pour their money into Singapore.
Dear Rich Comrades!
Come! Come! Buy Singapore Properties!
Singapore properties are the safest!
The latest rumour is that there may be currency control in ...
Anyway, it is just a rumour - not factual at all. So we should be safe from their invasion?
Junior
Amercia was built on slavery.
It did not pay a single cent to all the slaves it captured from Africa. That's why its economy sprang ahead and became so powerful, while poor Africa became so impoverished.
But retribution is coming ...
Often, you notice that "retribution" comes in very interesting ways.
Look who has the unenviable task of printing the infinite amounts of U.S. dollars?
Read the following very interesting bit of Chinese history on the Empress Dowager Yehe Nara Ci Xi who brought down the Manchu Aisin Gioro Qing Dynasty ...
The Yehe Nara were a Manchu clan who ruled Yehe, one of the Hūlun Four States. Yehe Nara resisted Aisin Gioro Nurhaci (founder of the Manchu empire) to the very end, but was absorbed by force in 1619. As Yehe Nara died, he reportedly cursed Aisin Gioro Nurhaci by saying that a woman from the Yehe Nara clan will lead to the downfall of the Manchu Aisin Gioro Qing dynasty. This curse seemingly became reality as Empress Dowager Ci Xi's disastrous rule help lead to the downfall of the Manchu Qing Dynasty in 1912. Empress Dowager Ci Xi came from this clan.
Newbie
Currency Control in Which Country ?
Junior
Indonesians have been invading Singapore's property market over the past 40 years.
Look at proud owner's post below ... don't know whether his friend is an Indonesian invader, but sure behaves like one ...
According to Wikipedia, there are only 1.7 million Indonesian Chinese, while China has a population of 1.3 billion.
That's 765 times ...
Senior
the number that's hard to figure out is the number of units overseas buyers bought as their holiday homes and are keeping them empty.
Junior
Laguna Park en bloc sale called off
November 19, 2009
The en bloc sale of Laguna Park has been called off for now as the sales committee found it a race against time to get the minimum consent level from owners at a proposed lower price – said to be $967 million or $704 psf per plot ratio, down from the original $1.2 billion or $844 psf ppr reserve price – before the Collective Sale Agreement (CSA) expires next month.
Source : Business Times – 19 Nov 2009
Junior
I attended one of his talk. Cool guy.
Junior
I knew it's coming. Question is when? Soon?
Junior
Good one. Nowadays retribution comes real fast. Do u know how 911 comes about? it is the Americans who trained youth in Afghanistan to fight Soviet during the Cold War. Americans even printed lots of books to teach those poor kids to hate & fight Soviet. After the cold war, these youths were then used by terrorists like Taleban & Osama to attack Americans ... unfortunately majority of Americans do not understand this.Amercia was built on slavery.
It did not pay a single cent to all the slaves it captured from Africa. That's why its economy sprang ahead and became so powerful, while poor Africa became so impoverished.
But retribution is coming ...
Often, you notice that "retribution" comes in very interesting ways.
Look who has the unenviable task of printing the infinite amounts of U.S. dollars?
Read the following very interesting bit of Chinese history on the Empress Dowager Yehe Nara Ci Xi who brought down the Manchu Aisin Gioro Qing Dynasty ...
Junior
Monitor gold. Singapore property price relative to gold is actually in negative territory. In 1996, URA property index peaked at 180, then again 180 in 2008. But gold was only 400USD back in 1996 and 800USD back in 2008, now gold is 1100USD !!!
Gold to URA property index ratio
400/180 = 2.22 (1996)
800/180 = 4.44 (2008)
1100/160 = 6.87 (now)
Similar for oil, oil to URA prop index ratio:
20/180 in 1996
80/180 in 2008
75/160 now
Property bubble?!
Last edited by jitkiat; 19-11-09 at 09:41.
Newbie
Property prices have been artificially suppressed due to political reasons. So, its not a free market anymore. Other markets are better.
Newbie
What is the relationship between gold and property?
Junior
It is like asking what is the relationship between Dow and Gold but yet the Dow Gold ratio is probably the best guidelines for investing in stocks/gold. Historical ratio between different asset classes will tell you whether a particular asset class is under or over-valued. Is Dow at 10,400 now overvalued relative to gold??
Moneyspinner is right, if not because of artificial control ... the URA property price index would have been beyond 200 by now.
What I am trying to say is how can Singapore property market crash anytime soon when it is among the poorest yielding asset class in the last 10 years and G7 central bank is debasing currency like mad? (of course barring unforeseen situation like war in SEA)
Junior
It's mainly due to media coverage.
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