Property market sentiments?

[apple3]

Just taking Mi Casa and The Arte as an example, I really cannot understand why there was a mad rush to snap up these properties??

+-85% dweller still putting up in HDB in Singapore. Pentup demand from earlier property peak could be the reason as said by a lot of ppls.

But again, there is a limit to everything. Do you think entire 85% HDB dweller could be upgrade to HDB? Do we have a whole list of LH > 50years old to be revamp/enbloc/top-up lease?

But we do have an average of 500 units to be TOP every month in 2009. And a surplus in land bank from developer as well as DBSS entering the market to fight for mass market share. Unless nation per capital income could have some corrections, if not.. sigh, don't know lah..

[apple3]

I agree with you. This is due to different dynamics (supply & demand etc) in stock and property market. In general, there is a correlation but it may not be 1 to 1. Sometimes, property will outperform STI e.g. property bubble at 1996. Sometimes, property will underperform STI e.g. (2003-2006). Therefore, the rebound of STI from a low of 1,500 to 2,200 does not mean property market must also rebound the same magnitude (it could be +1/2% in Q3 for example compared to a +30% in STI). However, do you agree that technical analysis of STI (or more importantly property stocks) may help to time your purchase & sale of properties at the bottom or peak of property cycles?

I agree it as a supporting element but not deciding factor. Example: To reference recent rally as a justification for raising property price is something I don't agree. To par it on a 6months movement is more agreeable. The daily adjustment/reference is rubbish. And to supplement, your weeks of property counter is also too short AND it the finance leading the charge back, NOT property counter.

Thats what I mean.

[jitkiat]

US Stocks are spiking amid news that the Consumer Confidence Index for May came in at a much better-than-expected 54.9, which marks the highest reading of this year. The consensus had called for a reading of 42.6

Let's see this one is enough to push STI through 2,283 resistance

[noblebaby]

May maybe the highest sales month since Feb...

Perhaps its possible that May sales total >1000 again and this time more than 500 units from sales in CCR?

[noblebaby]

When they sell Wharf, in the press release, they mentioned about upcoming Gillman Height project. I think they will go for mass market condo 1st just like CDL going to launch Hong Leong Garden becos luxury segment is still facing oversupply problem.

If I were the developer, I will delay all the highend launches, sell mass market condos, reconfigure mid-end condos to all 1/2 room flats < 900sqft to target the 270k potential 5-room HDB upgraders ... this strategy should work even market is moving sideways for the next few months

BTW, they got Gillman at 365psf per plot ratio

This one I totally agreed with you.

[noblebaby]

Yup, when the market is cheong-ing up, every one think it is a sucker rally... so always keep reminding themself to buy and must buy during market pull back... but when the market started to plunge like mad, they think it is the end of the world... so, when to buy?!?! People are funny animal....

Then hold your purchases especially if you are not in a hurry to buy. When the crisis started last year end and prices started to drop, people say will drop further. The reason I noted people are comparing prices from current low against the previously low in 2003-2005.

However, the conditions are different. Previously, the starting pay of many people are low. In addition, there wasn't any IR in the near future.

I believe that prices should go down but people must always factor in reasons to justify. Basing on guts feel that the recent stock rally is not substainable? 2009 is already half way through. Yes, this is a tough year and to think that next year is going to be tougher? Then all the measures of various govt must be ineffective. I do not cast aside the doubt of that possibility. However, when it become worst, will you still buy a property?

Similarly, that was what I heard when people say in that 2 months ago when STI is at 1600 levels. Don't enter the market as it will go lower...a Bear trap... etc.

Now STI almost stablised at 2,200 level and people start to feel that this is not substainable. So if it is not substainable, what is the level you think it will be? When it is at that level, will you buy?

For property purchases, various factors have to be considered. Once a unit is gone, it is gone. You can never buy back the same unit within a short term unless due to special reason.

[noblebaby]

Started to see double top for DJI and STI as well... volume decreasing day by day... MACD not improving... some funds offloaded big chip already... if STI can cross 2300, more cheongster come-in.

US Stocks are spiking amid news that the Consumer Confidence Index for May came in at a much better-than-expected 54.9, which marks the highest reading of this year. The consensus had called for a reading of 42.6

Let's see this one is enough to push STI through 2,283 resistance

[jitkiat]

May maybe the highest sales month since Feb...

Wait till STI to break 2283 resistance with good volume 1st, then June will be even better.

[noblebaby]

Wait till STI to break 2283 resistance with good volume 1st, then June will be even better.

Tons of $$$ is still sitting on the sideline that do not believe this rally is real... if market cont. to cheong, some of this sideline $$$ will be sucked in and continue to fuel the market...!!!

Sentiment improving, many made good profit from stock market, and continue to lead property market to improve... Entering into 4Q09 is the critical thing to watch.

[jitkiat]

One crucial thing to watch is HDB resale index. From what I checked for April/May, prices seem to be holding pretty well in CCK, Punggol, Sengkang, Simei (just look at how many txn is above 400k vs 1Q2009). Expect 2Q HDB resale price to be flat to slightly positive. It is important for HDB resale price index to hold to sustain the demand for the mass market condo segment.

[apple3]

US Stocks are spiking amid news that the Consumer Confidence Index for May came in at a much better-than-expected 54.9, which marks the highest reading of this year. The consensus had called for a reading of 42.6

Let's see this one is enough to push STI through 2,283 resistance

Kiat, there you go again. Just last week, Standard & Poor's put Great Britain's credit on negative watch. Immediately, the pound sank, Europe stock market plummeted and you don't mentioned a single word. And today, Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller reported state's National Home Price index tumbled by 19.1 percent in the first quarter, the most in its 21-year history and you don't mention a bit during the earlier low opening. And only to surface your bullish remark upon current spike...

You did not comment my reply to you earlier so I don't know what is your take. And so what will happen if S&P875 cannot hold? you go down to 850? then 825? Look, I always tell my staff to watch out of the 3C saying; People can't CONVINCE, they CONFUSE and last resort, they CON.

1. Convince: Your financial illustration sure carry certain truth and may convince some that a rise in property price is imminent but some will also fail to realise that you have harness all but bearish elements.

2. Confuse: This is a property forum, maybe not a lot but certainly it get confusing with all these stuff.

3. Con: Mislead would be a better word to use.

Again, perhaps I'm a busybody and certain part of me always like to go for a detail search of all your posts and balance up your views. (thats also my right too, so to speak) But again, I never want to pump up a bearish view cause I'm never one. And I cannot set the objective of coming this forum just to engage you.

But well, I have been recieving positive comments and some encouraging post including those to my private mail box like this one;

just writing to express my appreciation of your analysis. i agree with a lot of what you said in this forum, especially this recent one:...

So I guess I will go on..

[apple3]

One crucial thing to watch is HDB resale index. From what I checked for April/May, prices seem to be holding pretty well in CCK, Punggol, Sengkang, Simei (just look at how many txn is above 400k vs 1Q2009). Expect 2Q HDB resale price to be flat to slightly positive. It is important for HDB resale price index to hold to sustain the demand for the mass market condo segment.

Which intelligent people said that? A factor, may be but crucial, you sure?

You have a tons of goverment policy from family nucleus to income cap to CPF low-interest loan for HDB and you are referencing it as a crucial factor against a free market of private property? You sure?

It is due to current pent-up demand for mass market or DBSS? Why don't you bring in petrol price as well since you every statistic also can use.. hold here hold there..

[jitkiat]

Kiat, there you go again. Just last week, Standard & Poor's put Great Britain's credit on negative watch. Immediately, the pound sank, Europe stock market plummeted and you don't mentioned a single word. And today, Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller reported state's National Home Price index tumbled by 19.1 percent in the first quarter, the most in its 21-year history and you don't mention a bit during the earlier low opening. And only to surface your bullish remark upon current spike...

You did not comment my reply to you earlier so I don't know what is your take. And so what will happen if S&P875 cannot hold? you go down to 850? then 825? Look, I always tell my staff to watch out of the 3C saying; People can't CONVINCE, they CONFUSE and last resort, they CON.

1. Convince: Your financial illustration sure carry certain truth and may convince some that a rise in property price is imminent but some will also fail to realise that you have harness all but bearish elements.

2. Confuse: This is a property forum, maybe not a lot but certainly it get confusing with all these stuff.

3. Con: Mislead would be a better word to use.

Again, perhaps I'm a busybody and certain part of me always like to go for a detail search of all your posts and balance up your views. (thats also my right too, so to speak) But again, I never want to pump up a bearish view cause I'm never one. And I cannot set the objective of coming this forum just to engage you.

But well, I have been recieving positive comments and some encouraging post including those to my private mail box like this one;

just writing to express my appreciation of your analysis. i agree with a lot of what you said in this forum, especially this recent one:...

So I guess I will go on..

You are welcome to correct me. However, I hope you understand I am coming from pure technical analysis perspective. Those negative fundamentals that you have mentioned is true but is already public knowledge and the market knows them even before they become public. Stock market is an indicator of things to happen 6-12 months down the road, not reflecting present fundamentals. The fact that S&P500 chose to take the good news and ignored the bad news and rebounded strongly last night at the 875 support, means it is still bullish technically. Like you said, if it breaks down below 875 and go back to test the next support level, the technical position will then turn bearish.

Convince - I am not here to convince anybody to buy property just because S&P500 is rebounding off 875 ... not that the bears are so easily convinced to suddenly become bulls

Confuse - are you saying there is totally no correlation btn S&P500 and the Singapore property market? It may not be 1 to 1, but certainly, S&P500 represents the US economy, and Singapore, being an export-led economy will have to watch S&P500 closely.

Con/Misled - in my previous thread, I was bullish when STI about to break 1950, and about the possible recovery of PPI at Q2 2009 based on my technical analysis of PPI trend from 1960-present (obviously u disagreed with me then).

[apple3]

You are welcome to correct me. However, I hope you understand I am coming from pure technical analysis perspective. Those negative fundamentals that you have mentioned is true but is already public knowledge and the market knows them even before they become public. Stock market is an indicator of things to happen 6-12 months down the road, not reflecting present fundamentals. The fact that S&P500 chose to take the good news and ignored the bad news and rebounded strongly last night at the 875 support, means it is still bullish technically. Like you said, if it breaks down below 875 and go back to test the next support level, the technical position will then turn bearish.

Convince - I am not here to convince anybody to buy property just because S&P500 is rebounding off 875 ... not that the bears are so easily convinced to suddenly become bulls

Confuse - are you saying there is totally no correlation btn S&P500 and the Singapore property market? It may not be 1 to 1, but certainly, S&P500 represents the US economy, and Singapore, being an export-led economy will have to watch S&P500 closely.

Con/Misled - in my previous thread, I was bullish when STI about to break 1950, and about the possible recovery of PPI at Q2 2009 based on my technical analysis of PPI trend from 1960-present (obviously u disagreed with me then).

Refering to those in bold;

1. I got 300+ ppl in my team and together with me and none of us could guess accurately S&P is going to downgrade Britain, you do? How about sharing what are the rating from Moody coming along? I'm going for a heavy long or short..

2. S&P certainly has its weightage. BUT not JUST S&P, Singapore export-led economy depend on all fxxking things. From conductor inventory to sweet crude to finance. Why zero in on an instance when States ignore bad focus good? There are instances when it the other way round.

3. You are bullish on every bullish element let alone said PPI. Times change and ppl already putting away the 52weeks moving average cause if so, the high point of Citibank will be US$23.50 and with current $3-$4, how you going to access it? You are using Post-World War 2/Oil Crisis Economy to benchmark on your TA?

AND think and refer to your previous posts, whenever your said holding any sort of index, when and during that time what is the STI & S&P and movement? Pal, don't lah, I chk your angle before commenting on you.. You have an easy TA here hor.. Still put a patting icon as if your analysis is so.. how to say? Sophiscated?

AND what is this about HDB resale index?

[jitkiat]

Refering to those in bold;

1. I got 300+ ppl in my team and together with me and none of us could guess accurately S&P is going to downgrade Britain, you do? How about sharing what are the rating from Moody coming along? I'm going for a heavy long or short..

2. S&P certainly has its weightage. BUT not JUST S&P, Singapore export-led economy depend on all fxxking things. From conductor inventory to sweet crude to finance. Why zero in on an instance when States ignore bad focus good? There are instances when it the other way round.

3. You are bullish on every bullish element let alone said PPI. Times change and ppl already putting away the 52weeks moving average cause if so, the high point of Citibank will be US$23.50 and with current $3-$4, how you going to access it? You are using Post-World War 2/Oil Crisis Economy to benchmark on your TA?

AND think and refer to your previous posts, whenever your said holding any sort of index, when and during that time what is the STI & S&P and movement? Pal, don't lah, I chk your angle before commenting on you.. You have an easy TA here hor.. Still put a patting icon as if your analysis is so.. how to say? Sophiscated?

AND what is this about HDB resale index?

1. The stock market has already priced in the chance of S&P downgrading Britain ... exactly when nobody knows. The point is if market chooses to ignore bad news and focus on good news ... you have to just follow the market trend and increase your long position when the next major resistance is broken .. this is what a professional trader will do

2. Ok, other than S&P, Dry Bulk Shipping Index is already up continuously for 17 days. Crude oil price is up at 62USD to everyone's surprise. HK futures has suddenly spiked 800+ points today ... we have URA new homes sales index > 1000 continuously since Feb... Indian stock market rallying 17% recently ... need I say more?

I guess a fundametalist will never agree with a technical analyst

[bargain hunter]

Looks like property counters have just taken over from finance and leading the charge back for the STI to break the 2284 resistance. For now, new multi month highs for property stocks, banks not yet.

I agree it as a supporting element but not deciding factor. Example: To reference recent rally as a justification for raising property price is something I don't agree. To par it on a 6months movement is more agreeable. The daily adjustment/reference is rubbish. And to supplement, your weeks of property counter is also too short AND it the finance leading the charge back, NOT property counter.

Thats what I mean.

[noblebaby]

US GDP may turn positive in 2Q or 3Q09

1. The stock market has already priced in the chance of S&P downgrading Britain ... exactly when nobody knows. The point is if market chooses to ignore bad news and focus on good news ... you have to just follow the market trend and increase your long position when the next major resistance is broken .. this is what a professional trader will do

2. Ok, other than S&P, Dry Bulk Shipping Index is already up continuously for 17 days. Crude oil price is up at 62USD to everyone's surprise. HK futures has suddenly spiked 800+ points today ... we have URA new homes sales index > 1000 continuously since Feb... Indian stock market rallying 17% recently ... need I say more?

I guess a fundametalist will never agree with a technical analyst

[august]

da good times are back!

[gfoo]

da good times are back!

the more everyone turns bullish, the more i want to put my place on the market for sale.

Sell when everyone buys, buy when there's blood in the streets.

[august]

the more everyone turns bullish, the more i want to put my place on the market for sale.

Sell when everyone buys, buy when there's blood in the streets.

dun lidat leh... let STI go higher so that i can unload

[gfoo]

dun lidat leh... let STI go higher so that i can unload

market crazy now. was just given a verbal offer this morn, dunno real or bluff.

if real, i think can go buy a gallardo with spare change liao.

[bargain hunter]

wah, if its a real offer, just accept and buy your gallardo.

market crazy now. was just given a verbal offer this morn, dunno real or bluff.

if real, i think can go buy a gallardo with spare change liao.

[gfoo]

wah, if its a real offer, just accept and buy your gallardo.

yes, i will by gallardo from Tomy, 1/8 scale.

But really i'll use the profit to buy a sedgway (always wanted one); a Nike Sumo Hybrid 7 iron replacement so i can cheat at the green; and put the rest back into the overall pot.

worse come to worse, draw out some in $10,000 bills, fold paper crane, hang em up, pose and take picture, and redeposit the cranes at the bank.

i've got to at least do this before i conk off, or before the world ends in 2012 according to the mayans

[august]

market crazy now. was just given a verbal offer this morn, dunno real or bluff.

if real, i think can go buy a gallardo with spare change liao.

u wan to sell your sail ah??

[gfoo]

actually what i really really wanna do is this, whether i sell or not.

a certain old coot is bound to conk off sooner or later, and sooner or later his face will be on a certain city-state's dollar bills.

i'll go to muthu's curry suntec, eat a load of fish head curry and butter chicken, and have a kopi. then i'll take a stroll to conrad lobby lounge toilet and take a dump.

i'll use a wad of the bills with the new face, and wipe my smelly, spicy arse.

that is possibly the closest the old coot will ever come to understanding the man-in-the-street

[proud owner]

actually what i really really wanna do is this, whether i sell or not.

a certain old coot is bound to conk off sooner or later, and sooner or later his face will be on a certain city-state's dollar bills.

i'll go to muthu's curry suntec, eat a load of fish head curry and butter chicken, and have a kopi. then i'll take a stroll to conrad lobby lounge toilet and take a dump.

i'll use a wad of the bills with the new face, and wipe my smelly, spicy arse.

that is possibly the closest the old coot will ever come to understanding the man-in-the-street

ahhaaha

eerrr did he just speak in today's paper ? about some success in some money losing projects ??

[august]

do the chow yuen fatt one, light a ciggie with the burning note ~~

[bargain hunter]

yeah, gfoo, you got a bid for your sail? i thought you had just finished renovating and just moved in to stay in the unit?

u wan to sell your sail ah??

[gfoo]

yeah, you got a bid for your sail? i thought you had just finished renovating and just moved in to stay in the unit?

yeah, reno finished, this is my 2nd week staying there.

but an agent friend brought his angmor client who was looking for a retirement home, and i did a 10min open house house. agent call back offer the next morning.

but wife reluctant to sell, esp when the dog has gotten used to shit in the right corner of the right toilet.

[gfoo]

yeah, reno finished, this is my 2nd week staying there.

but an agent friend brought his angmor client who was looking for a retirement home, and i did a 10min open house house. agent call back offer the next morning.

but wife reluctant to sell, esp when the dog has gotten used to shit in the right corner of the right toilet.

one caution to pet owners. Until the Central Park is built, there's no where for the dog to take a natural shit. it's all concrete, and it's kinda bad walking the dog over to ORQ, and letting her have a shit where inconsiderate husbands illegally park while waiting to pick up their wives.