Property market sentiments?

[jlrx]

I just came across an "old news" from Business Times Dec 30, 2008.

Let's see how accurate these "property experts" were in their predictions ...


Business Times

Dec 30, 2008

DTZ expects 2009 to echo property price plunge of 2008

Prime district property prices fall by 20%; similar decline seen in 2009

Prices of condominiums and apartments in the prime districts have fallen by more than 20 per cent in 2008 on a year-on-year basis, says DTZ.



DTZ is also forecasting a further decline of 15-20 per cent for this segment of the market in 2009 ...

But DTZ said that the downturn in the economy will deter buyers from committing to property purchases and sales are expected to continue to remain low in 2009 ...

The extent of price corrections is still uncertain but Nomura has already adjusted its forecasts. In March, it forecast average prices in the luxury sector to fall by 32.3 per cent from the 2007 peak over 2008-2010 – 16.9 per cent in 2008, 10.3 per cent in 2009 and 9.3 per cent in 2010.



It now expects luxury prices to fall 43.8 per cent from the peak, and mass residential prices to fall 32.1 per cent as yields move out by an additional 25-50 basis-points.

OCBC analysts also believe that high-end property prices could decline by 15-20 per cent in 2009 due to weak sentiment, unsold inventories and potential risks of buyers’ default and fire-sales.



OCBC expects mass market property prices to remain resilient, supported by the stability in HDB prices. For the mid-market properties, it expects prices to fall further in 2009, with a projected decline of 5-10 per cent.

Plus the following comment in sg-house.com forum ...

31-12-2008, 06:27 PM

Guest

Doom and Gloom not Bloom for Flippers

[orange]

brudder, you are damn funny lah with the pics. hahaha!

[Maninthestreet]

Sometimes I feel if I acted in opposite what analyst reported and recommend, I will make money....

[Reporter]

Sometimes I feel if I acted in opposite what analyst reported and recommend, I will make money....

... but the problem with us is we don't have the guts (balls) to do it ...

[Reporter]

Government unlikely to touch interest rates: Tharman
Esther Fung
Today
Wednesday, 11 November 2009, 5.55am

The Government will "use every tool in our disposal in calibrated fashion" to prevent the boom-and-bust cycle of the property market, with "extreme tax policies" not ruled out.

But it is unlikely to toy with interest rates or exchange rates, said Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam, a day after the Monetary Authority of Singapore warned that prevailing low interest rates might feed market exuberance.

Policymakers must be careful with macroeconomic tools that apply to businesses too, not just the asset markets, he explained.

"We do have other tools - credit rules, land supply decisions and extreme tax policies, which we'll use in a calibrated fashion, depending on the circumstance (and) on the stage of the asset market."

He also recalled how earlier this decade, "everyone was telling the Government 'Go easy, don't put more land on the market' as there was a real fear of oversupply".

"But we found by 2006, 2007 a shortage especially in the office market," he added.

[ay123]

... but the problem with us is we don't have the guts (balls) to do it ...

actually is not that we don have the balls. sometime when we are ready to kick the ball, then some stupid analyst come up with some "roti prata" comments that can cause some uncertainty in our decision. i remember 1 month before the stock recover, there is a professor (i cant remember the name, the surname is Zeng) gave a stupid advice to sell whatever stock you have on hand. he said that DOW will continue to fall to 5000 points. can you imagine how many people will commit suicide if those investor had listen to him. somemore he is a well known analyst!!!!. i think the analyst should be made responsible for whatever comment that they put across in the market. how can they made lots of $$$$ by making roti prata comment and no accountability after that!!!!

[Property_Owner]

Sometimes I feel if I acted in opposite what analyst reported and recommend, I will make money....

They been giving the wrong report since beginning this year.

[Reporter]

APEC to keep spending taps open
Martin Abbugao
Agence France-Presse
Singapore
Wednesday, 11 November 2009


APEC to keep spending taps open

Asia-Pacific finance chiefs, anxious about the potential for a "double-dip recession", will keep lavish stimulus spending in place for now, according to a draft communique obtained by AFP on Tuesday.

The statement is set to be released on Thursday by finance ministers of the 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum ahead of a weekend summit joined by US President Barack Obama and the leaders of China and Russia.

"We agree that the solution is not to rush to fiscal tightening, especially while credit markets are still recovering," the draft text said, echoing an early version of the APEC leaders' declaration also obtained by AFP last week.

"Careful planning and timing withdrawal of extraordinary stimulus measures will help to avoid a double-dip recession," said the finance ministers' statement, which was being thrashed out by senior APEC officials in Singapore.

APEC foreign ministers will also convene in the wealthy Asian city-state this week to pursue the 20-year-old organisation's longstanding -- and lagging -- goals of free trade and economic integration.

Climate change will be another major topic in the lead-up to a crucial meeting in Copenhagen next month. APEC looks set to call for sweeping cuts to greenhouse gas emissions while leaving the details up for debate.

"If there's going to be anything done on climate change it's going to require the US and China to find some convergence," World Bank president Robert Zoellick said in Singapore Tuesday.

Several of the APEC finance ministers are coming to Singapore straight after a meeting of the broader G20 grouping in Scotland, where there was no agreement on how cash should be delivered to help poorer nations tackle climate change.

In their draft statement, the APEC finance chiefs said they would look at ways to entrench "green growth" across the Pacific Rim organisation, which stretches from deeply impoverished Papua New Guinea to the United States.

APEC experts will look at developing markets to trade in carbon emissions and how to support environmentally friendly industries through private investment and government subsidies, the ministerial statement said.

On the global economic crisis, the ministers were expected to welcome the green shoots of recovery while keeping up their guard.

"While we have transited from a crisis to a more stable phase, we remain vigilant as economic recovery is still tentative and likely to be slow going forward," the draft said.

"We noted the initial positive effects of the stimulus measures, but also recognised their longer-term implications on public debt/deficits," it added.

The Obama administration implemented a 787-billion-dollar Recovery Act in February which the White House says has saved or created nearly 650,000 jobs, and likely more than a million.

And analysts say massive stimulus packages rolled out by Asian governments played an important role in helping the region weather the downturn better than the United States or Europe.

The Asian packages totalled more than 1.0 trillion US dollars, according to a tally by global ratings agency Standard and Poor's, led by 585 billion dollars in spending by China.

APEC member Australia has become the first developed nation to hike interest rates as it stages a decisive transition out of the global slowdown.

Australian Trade Minister Simon Crean said the country's strong currency had been pivotal to the recovery, and described the government's decision in 1983 to float the Australian dollar as "unequivocally good".

China, in contrast, refuses to relax its grip on the yuan's exchange rate, and analysts say the US dollar's long slide is likely to cause much handwringing among the APEC nations this week.

[proud owner]

He also recalled how earlier this decade, "everyone was telling the Government 'Go easy, don't put more land on the market' as there was a real fear of oversupply".

"But we found by 2006, 2007 a shortage especially in the office market," he added.[/quote]

so who is EVERYONE he talking about ?
the ministry ?
PAP?
developers ?

he should clarify

[Laguna]

It is rare that the Garman in such a concerted efforts in a few days to so called "cool" the market. It signifies it is not just the current level of "heat" in the mass market, but more important, is it going to be hotter and hotter tomorrow is more important.

We can only tell, how the prices going to be like after the result of the land sale, especially those with the better locations. If the price is still around $500 psf ppr, the price hit the market will still be at the current level or even higher with the MM units. And if this happens, there could be more measures or more panic in the market ?

let's wait and see, interesting

[mcmlxxvi]

Going by the choice of land released in the GLS, despite being the suburbs, mostly are prime location near to MRT etc, and going by the recent successful (high) bid prices, it is only going to be UP UP AND AWAY for new launch prices including suburbs.

[august]

more choices more headaches for buyers haha

[jlrx]

Sometimes I feel if I acted in opposite what analyst reported and recommend, I will make money....

... but the problem with us is we don't have the guts (balls) to do it ...

actually is not that we don have the balls. sometime when we are ready to kick the ball, then some stupid analyst come up with some "roti prata" comments that can cause some uncertainty in our decision. i remember 1 month before the stock recover, there is a professor (i cant remember the name, the surname is Zeng) gave a stupid advice to sell whatever stock you have on hand.

Don't blame these analysts.

Analsysts, by spouting rubbish, help to separate those with balls from those with no balls.

See below.

Let me use this example.

The Sail #58-01

Launch price 978psf

1st transaction = 1140psf July 05 ( Why 1st owner sell so early?)

2nd transaction = 2600psf June 07 (2nd owner also sell too early, #36-01 sold 2668psf Oct 07, if he were to hold, my guess he will hit 3000psf if #36-01 can sell 2668psf)

3rd transaction = 1750psf Jan 09 ( Also sell too early, maybe panic at that time but doesn't he knows market will recover)

4th transaction = 2280psf Aug 09 ( another that sells too early too, #53-01 just lodged 2365psf, can he achieve higher if he had wait for #53-01 to sell first?)

The person who sold at $1,750 psf has no balls.

The person who bought at $1,750 psf has balls.

Frankly, anyone who dared to buy in Jan 2009 really had balls.

During Jan 2009, the market was in free fall. I didn't even dared to read any property-related news or peek into this forum.

This person, whoever he is, who bought in Jan 2009 has my respect!

Anyway, he doesn't need my respect.

He has made ($2,280 - $1,750) psf x 1,184 sf = $627,520 in 7 months.

That's the reward for having balls.

As for the person who sold. Too bad.

[Property_Owner]

Don't blame these analysts.

Analsysts, by spouting rubbish, help to separate those with balls from those with no balls.

See below.



The person who sold at $1,750 psf has no balls.

The person who bought at $1,750 psf has balls.

Frankly, anyone who dared to buy in Jan 2009 really had balls.

During Jan 2009, the market was in free fall. I didn't even dared to read any property-related news or peek into this forum.

This person, whoever he is, who bought in Jan 2009 has my respect!

Anyway, he doesn't need my respect.

He has made ($2,280 - $1,750) psf x 1,184 sf = $627,520 in 7 months.

That's the reward for having balls.

As for the person who sold. Too bad.

What about tat dude who bought @ 2280psf? Got balls or not?

[focus]

What about tat dude who bought @ 2280psf? Got balls or not?

Hahaha.. that was funny!
That dude must have balls of STEEL

[ronyyk76]

What about tat dude who bought @ 2280psf? Got balls or not?

Real funny...hahahaha

[ronyyk76]

What about tat dude who bought @ 2280psf? Got balls or not?

Real funny...hahahaha

[Reporter]

Singapore to meet OECD tax standard after France deal
Neil Chatterjee and Saeed Azhar
Reuters
Singapore
Wednesday, 11 November 2009, 7:19pm CCT

® Tax deal with France to mark 12th info exchange agreement

® Deal means Singapore to be removed from OECD tax grey list

® Liechtenstein says on Wednesday will be off OECD grey list

® Private bankers expect transparency to boost business


Asian financial centre Singapore is set to be taken off the OECD's "grey list" of countries not implementing international standards on information exchange, giving a boost to its fast-growing wealth industry.

France will sign the agreement with Singapore on Friday, according to an invitation from the French government.

The agreement features the new internationally agreed standard that requires governments to disclose financial information upon specific foreign requests to chase tax evaders.

It marks the 12th such agreement Singapore has signed, the number of treaties required to be removed from the OECD list.

Singapore's Ministry of Finance could not immediately comment.

Liechtenstein said on Wednesday it had been removed from the "grey list" after it took steps to cooperate with foreign countries in tax matters, the latest offshore centre to fall in line with global standards.

The Group of 20 nations had threatened to impose sanctions on all financial centres that did not cooperate on tax issues. The G20 agreed in April to crack down on countries that failed to help in cross-border tax evasion cases.

Private bankers in Singapore have said the stamp of transparency will not scare rich clients away but will instead help the city-state's offshore wealth management industry, which vies with Hong Kong to be the biggest in Asia, by attracting fresh funds from Europe and the Middle East.

However, some worry that regional countries such as Indonesia, which has been cracking down on tax evasion, could also move to try to push Singapore to disclose the details of funds held by rich Indonesians in the city-state.

The OECD in April published a "grey list" of more than 30 countries that had agreed to improve transparency but had not signed the necessary international accords, of which Singapore was one.

Singapore endorsed the OECD standard for the exchange of information for tax purposes in March and has been renegotiating existing agreements with various countries since then.

It has also signed new agreements with Mexico, Qatar, Norway, Austria, Australia, the Netherlands, UK, Denmark, New Zealand, Belgium and Bahrain.

Singapore has strict bank secrecy laws and has been promoting itself as a base for banks such as UBS, Credit Suisse and Citigroup to manage money for rich local and foreign.

[jlrx]

What about tat dude who bought @ 2280psf? Got balls or not?

That dude who bought at $2,280 psf also got balls. But smaller balls.

That dude who bought at $1,750 psf in Jan 2009 was like someone who dared to rush into a burning house when the fire was raging. So he'd got big balls.



That dude who bought at $2,280 psf in Aug 2009, by then the fireman Obama was already flooding the market with lots of water (money), and the market sort of recovered from the shock of Lehman Brothers. So he'd got smaller balls.

[ronyyk76]

Below is reason why GOV got so worry.

There are still too many houses in US now

House prices have pulled out of their free fall, but don't expect them to recover until we work through a huge property glut. cnnad_createAd("636629","http://ads.cnn.com/html.ng/site=cnn_money&cnn_money_position=220x200_ctr&cnn_money_rollup=technology&cnn_money_section=quigo&params.styles=fs","200","220");

NEW YORK (Fortune) -- The lights are on in the housing market. But at more and more places, nobody's home.
House prices have risen in recent months after a long plunge, according to the National Association of Realtors and the S&P Case-Shiller national index. Fewer Americans owe more than their property is worth, according to a report this week from Zillow.com.
But a full-fledged housing recovery will remain elusive until the market can absorb all the houses and apartments that were built during the housing boom. And on that front, progress has been slow.
About one in seven housing units was vacant in the third quarter, according to the Census Department. This year has registered the highest reading since the government began collecting such data in 1965.
Part of the glut comes from a rash of foreclosures as strapped borrowers fall behind on their mortgages.
But rental apartments are emptying out at a record clip as well, as a spike in the jobless rate and a decade of subpar wage growth have sent many Americans back home to live with Mom and Dad.
And some owners, such as Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, have decided to rent their houses out after they couldn't sell them.
"There's just too many houses out there for the population we have," said Brian Peterson, an economist at Indiana University who focuses on housing. "The market's going to take a couple years to clear."
The homeowner vacancy rate dropped to 2.6% in the third quarter from 2.8% a year ago, when homeowner vacancies hit their all-time high. But a jump in the rental vacancy rate, to 11.1% from 9.9% a year earlier, more than offset that decline.
Because twice as many people own their homes as rent, the total vacancy rate -- 14.5% in the third quarter -- exceeds the sum of the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.
The rise in vacancies comes after a decade in which homebuilders, motivated by easy financing and rising prices, built many more homes than the U.S. needed.
About 1.2 million households are formed each year, on average, according to government estimates. But housing starts averaged 1.7 million a year between 1996 and 2006, when the boom topped out.
"There was some overbuilding during that period," said Walter Molony, a public affairs specialist at the National Association of Realtors.
Since then, housing starts have dropped sharply, allowing the market to soak up some of the excess. And prices have dropped precipitously in the most overbuilt markets in the South and West, luring some buyers off the sidelines.
Peterson also notes that the vacancy numbers have expanded over the years to include more types of vacant homes, such as seasonally occupied beach houses.
1 in 5 homes still underwatervidConfig.push({videoArray: ["/video/news/2009/11/09/n_cmr_home_prices_zillow.cnnmoney.json"], collapsed:false});
Meanwhile, tax credits, mortgage modifications and government mortgage market support have helped slow the decline of house prices.
Federal mortgage purchases have brought down 30-year mortgage rates by a third of a point, according to Wall Street estimates. More than 350,000 Americans have used the $8,000 homebuyer tax credit to buy their first house, according to industry data.
But because most of those buyers were presumably renters beforehand, their purchases filled one vacancy while creating another.
The biggest factor working for a recovery now, Peterson said, is that buyers who were once priced out of many housing markets are being lured in by lower prices.
But those people may not take the plunge until their job prospects firm up, he added. That may take a while at a time when unemployment is at a 26-year high and the economy has shed jobs for 22 straight months.

"We need those people to start buying houses and starting families," he said.

[azeoprop]

So i guess that plot of land next to Caspian will not have units selling 580psf anymore.... More like 680psf or something like that as the minimum....unless something drastic happens like uob or dbs or ocbc suddenly goes bankrupt.

[kane]

Frankly, anyone who dared to buy in Jan 2009 really had balls.

During Jan 2009, the market was in free fall. I didn't even dared to read any property-related news or peek into this forum.

This person, whoever he is, who bought in Jan 2009 has my respect!

Anyway, he doesn't need my respect.

He has made ($2,280 - $1,750) psf x 1,184 sf = $627,520 in 7 months.

That's the reward for having balls.

As for the person who sold. Too bad.

by february, lots of investor were in paralysis. all assets were bleeding non-stop. balls of steel indeed. everyone was anxiously waiting to see if the world will slip into it's 2nd great depression in a hundred years... but alas, the money printers saved the day... but not the cash in our bank accounts. ouch.

[jlrx]

by february, lots of investor were in paralysis. all assets were bleeding non-stop. balls of steel indeed. everyone was anxiously waiting to see if the world will slip into it's 2nd great depression in a hundred years... but alas, the money printers saved the day... but not the cash in our bank accounts. ouch.

That's why I said buying properties is like a "religion", you must have "faith" - Faith that in the long run, money always devalues, and hence properties will always go up.

"Faith" was what kept me going during the bleakest days of early 2009.

At the risk of being banned from this forum for proselytizing, I would like to preach to everyone my religion - "Propertism".

Let me introduce you to my messiah.



My whole family worship this messiah. Whenever the chips are down, we would pray to him and our prayers were always answered.

I think Reporter also worships this same religion (although I don't know which denomination he belongs to) because I have seen the photo of my messiah appeared in one of his posts before. I also know that proud owner is not a convert because he asked Reporter who this person was. That explains why proud owner is always very worried about whether condos can fetch rental, whether condos will have oversupply, whether there will be a correction in 2011 or 2012 etc.

When you believe in "Propertism", all these worries will disappear, because you will know that, no matter how much land the government releases, developers can never build properties at the rate at which Obama prints money.

The messiah is now old and seldom appears, but his son is ready to take over from him. His son has even greater words of wisdom - listen to his Latte Calculus.


The Edge Singapore
August 24, 2009

The Latte Calculus



Australian-educated Robert, who trained as a lawyer before joining the family's property empire, is happy with his regular latte fix.

Indeed, coffee figures prominently in almost every conversation he has about property. Though prices have rebounded fairly sharply in recent weeks, the Hong Kong and China property markets are not yet frothy, he says, because of what he calls his latte calculus.

"If you put HK$1 million in a bank deposit in Hong Kong today, you will be lucky to get enough interest to buy a big latte at the end of the year," he says.

[pearly]

I have a unit at Hundred Trees and already having a problem disposing the unit. Not sure what is the best method now since my agent is nonchalant about the situation. He only does ST Classified twice or trice a month and each time there are less than 3 calls

Whatever it is, it's not due to funding problem which sets me on disposing the unit. I can hold if required but need to dispose it off due to personal commitments. I'm not a speculator

You need time to be on your side, if you are running short of time, you will be on the losing end.

You need someone who likes pes to get yours.

[Reporter]

1st public housing project along Punggol Waterway to have eco-friendly features
Maggie Chong and Dylan Loh
Channel NewsAsia
Wednesday, 11 November 2009, 1257 hrs

.....
Punggol Waterfront Housing by Group8asia

Singapore's first public housing project along the Punggol Waterway will have eco-friendly features and resort-like designs.

The 1,200-unit waterfront project will be launched in the middle of next year.

The firm behind the winning design is a partnership between international architectural firm Group8asia and local design company Aedas.

They stole the crown with a distinctive sky terrace concept which creates public spaces along the waterway.

More than 100 design firms from Europe and Asia took part in the Punggol Waterfront Housing Design Competition.

They had to submit plans that matched the housing board's theme of "Green Living by the Waters".

HDB said the waterfront flats will be kept affordable.

National Development Minister Mah Bow Tan said: "New HDB estates look like private condominiums, but don't cost as much as private condominiums.

"New innovative construction methods like pre-fabrication reduces cost and construction time. And that's one of the reasons why we are able to keep the cost of construction down."

Maybe we should consider heeding Minister Mah's advice of not buying condos or private apartments?

The modern public apartment looks elegant and is of high build standard. You can choose to have a million-dollar view or live near a billion-dollar mall. Just look at those pictures! Wow!

And the best part ... Minister Mah has assured that these public apartments will be priced lower than condos!

Isn't that great?
Instead of owning 1 condo, you can now own 1 apartment (abeit a public one ... but does it matter?) and 1 car.

No need to guess whether our newspapers are bullish or bearish ...

Actions speak louder than words ...


Business Times
November 10, 2009, 6.57 pm (Singapore time)

Update: Clementi Mall tender draws top bid of almost $542 million
By KALPANA RASHIWALA

The Housing & Development Board's tender for Clementi Mall has attracted a total of six bids. The top bid by CM Domain Pte Ltd, a joint venture led by Singapore Press Holdings, was for $541.898 million. This works out to $2,800 psf based on the net lettable area of 18,000 sq metres or 193,750 sq ft.

The mall is being sold on 99-year leasehold tenure. SPH's joint venture partners are NTUC FairPrice Co-Operative and NTUC Income Insurance Co-op.

HDB is building only the core structure and facade, which it aims to hand over to the eventual buyer around August next year. The new owner will then finish the project internally, with flexibility to plan the theme and layout. The buyer will also have naming rights to the mall.


Straits Times
Nov 10, 2009

Mall draws top bid of $542m
By Joyce Teo

THE tender for a mall at Clementi Town Centre which closed on Tuesday, attracted a top bid of $541.9 million from CM Domain.
It was a whopping 41.8% above the second bid of $382 million from Titanium (AMT) and Guthrie (Anshan).

There were six bids in all, according to a statement from the Housing & Development Board.

Other bidders include CapitaMall Trust and Sim Lian Holdings.

The suburban mall is part of a larger 40-storey development that has two blocks of HDB flats and a bus interchange.

[pmet]

You need time to be on your side, if you are running short of time, you will be on the losing end.

You need someone who likes pes to get yours.

I agree it's difficult to sell a PES unit and I'm running short of time but I won't sell if it's making a loss. Time and hold power are two different things

[mcmlxxvi]

I agree it's difficult to sell a PES unit and I'm running short of time but I won't sell if it's making a loss. Time and hold power are two different things

Maybe can sell at a slight loss in order to get your next dream house? 'No pain no gain' sometimes...

[mcmlxxvi]

Maybe we should consider heeding Minister Mah's advice of not buying condos or private apartments?

The modern public apartment looks elegant and is of high build standard. You can choose to have a million-dollar view or live near a billion-dollar mall. Just look at those pictures! Wow!

And the best part ... Minister Mah has assured that these public apartments will be priced lower than condos!

Isn't that great?
Instead of owning 1 condo, you can now own 1 apartment (abeit a public one ... but does it matter?) and 1 car.

Aiyo, if not because I not yet 35 else I long ago buy HDB for my first house liao and not some MM private apt!

[mcmlxxvi]

So i guess that plot of land next to Caspian will not have units selling 580psf anymore.... More like 680psf or something like that as the minimum....unless something drastic happens like uob or dbs or ocbc suddenly goes bankrupt.

When this happens not only PROPERTY market will be impacted lor.

[pearly]

I agree it's difficult to sell a PES unit and I'm running short of time but I won't sell if it's making a loss. Time and hold power are two different things

not implying its difficult to sell pes. Just need more time to wait.

since you can hold although short of time, just have to wait.