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Thread: Property market sentiments?

  1. #901
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    You mean Parc MacKenzie came in to Singapore market at a time when their home market is red hot?
    Not sure, judging from recent TOP status, it may have came in during 06/07?

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    Quote Originally Posted by mcmlxxvi
    Not sure, judging from recent TOP status, it may have came in during 06/07?
    Let's assume 06/07 is correct.
    1. Was there China hot money then?
    2. If there was (even if I didn't see any then), did China hot money flood Hong Kong developers' door step then?


    Maybe the world has changed since 06/07?
    Maybe Parc MacKenzie came here to take risk then?
    Maybe China Sonangol came because they were asked by their customers?


    Like you, I "dunno", I "not sure".
    That's why I can only ask question.
    "Why China Sonangol come here to lose money when their home market is so hot?"

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    Actually, China Sonangol is more related to the Angola government than to the Chinese government. I attended the AGM of a listed company which has links with China Sonangol and was lucky enough to have had the opportunity to chat a little with them about China Sonangol. The Chinese partner is a state owned but private company while the Angola one is owned by its government.

    Why would they be doomed? I have the utmost respect for this well run company. They are cash rich, well diversified and backed by oil in Angola. Its those highly leveraged companies which you will need to feel sorry for.



    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Err ... maybe I should let the gurus here (i.e. you guys and the rest) express their views.
    Maybe I don't have a view?
    But I for sure have a question.

    Did China Sonangol consult you guys before they purchase the site from OUE? Judging from your views, it seems like this Hong Kong-based company is doomed.

    I feel sorry for ...

  4. #904
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    Quote Originally Posted by mcmlxxvi
    Like some radio station ad says, hear only the 'good' things.
    Or trying to drum up sentiments. Reporter could be one of those who bought at a high in 2007 or bought one recently in Jul 2009. So now trying to drive the market up further single-handedly , just to breakeven.

    If have holding power, no need to worry, no need to read so many analyst reports and post here to justify purchase. In 7 years time sure can sell at a profit. But be prepared for a roller-coaster ride

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    Yanlord is listed in Singapore. The majority owner, Zhong Shen Jian, has been residing in Singapore since 1988. Yanlord's developments are very big in China. Parc Mackenzie is too small to even be mentioned in its results statements. I would think Parc Mackenzie is a small experiment for Mr. Zhong so that he can consider whether to undertake bigger projects in Singapore. His core market is still in China and they are selling well at healthy profits over there. Maybe he has no time to bother about Parc Mackenzie at all and has left it to his junior staff to handle the sales here.

    These are not hot money, these are real long term investments in development projects undertaken by Yanlord and China Sonangol. Please do not insult them.



    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Let's assume 06/07 is correct.
    1. Was there China hot money then?
    2. If there was (even if I didn't see any then), did China hot money flood Hong Kong developers' door step then?


    Maybe the world has changed since 06/07?
    Maybe Parc MacKenzie came here to take risk then?
    Maybe China Sonangol came because they were asked by their customers?


    Like you, I "dunno", I "not sure".
    That's why I can only ask question.
    "Why China Sonangol come here to lose money when their home market is so hot?"

  6. #906
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    I have to re-emphaise, China Sonangol's core business is not property development.


    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Maybe China Sonangol came because they were asked by their customers?

    "Why China Sonangol come here to lose money when their home market is so hot?"

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    Quote Originally Posted by HP65
    Or trying to drum up sentiments. Reporter could be one of those who bought at a high in 2007 or bought one recently in Jul 2009. So now trying to drive the market up further single-handedly , just to breakeven.

    If have holding power, no need to worry, no need to read so many analyst reports and post here to justify purchase. In 7 years time sure can sell at a profit. But be prepared for a roller-coaster ride
    We have gurus here which I can learn from.

    Now we have fortune teller here that can tell a person's background and what he has invested in. Cool!

    Can you teach me how you can tell I bought high in 2007 and am desperately trying to breakeven?
    To be honest, I am desperate. I am desperate to learn from you on fortune-telling. I can make more wealth with this skill.

    I feel sorry ...

    Quote Originally Posted by DC33_2008, Southbank, 23 September 2009
    .....

    It involved the sale of a 34th level unit at Southbank, located at North Bridge Road, for $1.64 million ($1,250 per square foot). The transaction last month is nearly double the $807,600 or $615 psf that the developer sold the unit for in July 2006.

    .....
    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter, Southbank, 23 September 2009
    I sold my 31st level in 2007 at $1,200psf.
    He beats me by $50psf.
    Cool!

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    I have to re-emphaise, China Sonangol's core business is not property development.
    ... China Sonangol Land ...

    ... see Sonangol Asia office 5 days a week ...

  9. #909
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    this was your own comments, not CBRE's. Again, I have to emphasise, China Sonangol's business is not only property development. They are well diversified.

    I think China Sonangol has got a good margin of safety. Min. 3000psf and above they are already making money. Whether they are going to sell at 3500 or 4000psf or more purely depends on market sentiment and its not anything like what you have mentioned below. Its not, if they want to sell $8,888 chinese buyers will accept. Chinese still love to buy good value. There is no such thing as buy at 3888psf will lose face to 8888psf.

    Also, please stop making a mountain out of a molehill. the number of units transacting at super record prices in HK are so few. You need to use the median luxury price in HK to compare, not the single record price.



    [quote=Reporter]Originally Posted by Reporter, Lincoln Suites, 5 days ago
    CBRE is making a very conservative estimate with $3,500 psf. They could not imagine the final figure. It could be much more than $5,000 psf.

    Hong Kong developers have been organising fully-paid-for tours for tycoons from the mainland China. One of the itinerary of these tour is a lunch-shopping trip to a showroom, where these tycoons can grab all they want, a $8,888 psf item, a $13,000 psf item or the best-of-the-best-$20,000 psf item.

    With this purchase, China Sonangol will be adding a new destination for these tours - Singapore. These tycoons hate to be labelled as "cheapskate". The last thing China Sonangol want to do is to make them "lose face" when they are back in their homeland after a Singapore tour.

    Just ask youself these questions:
    1. Are China Sonangol buying this site to compete against the local big boys who have all the cost advantage?
    2. If China Sonangol can't beat the local big boys in terms of cost, why should they even bother to buy the site?
    3. Are China Sonangol willing to offend their most-valuable customers by offering them a condo that is not the most expensive in Singapore and costs just 25% of those in Hong Kong?

    quote]

  10. #910
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    that's what i meant. China Sonangol Land is just a property arm of China Sonangol International. They are so well diversified.

    and precisely, you see Sonangol Asia office 5 days a week and you can tell me they are a property developer? They are in the business of distribution and production of oil and gas.



    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    ... China Sonangol Land ...

    ... see Sonangol Asia office 5 days a week ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    this was your own comments, not CBRE's. Again, I have to emphasise, China Sonangol's business is not only property development. They are well diversified.

    I think China Sonangol has got a good margin of safety. Min. 3000psf and above they are already making money. Whether they are going to sell at 3500 or 4000psf or more purely depends on market sentiment and its not anything like what you have mentioned below. Its not, if they want to sell $8,888 chinese buyers will accept. Chinese still love to buy good value. There is no such thing as buy at 3888psf will lose face to 8888psf.

    Also, please stop making a mountain out of a molehill. the number of units transacting at super record prices in HK are so few. You need to use the median luxury price in HK to compare, not the single record price.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter, Lincoln Suites, 5 days ago
    CBRE is making a very conservative estimate with $3,500 psf. They could not imagine the final figure. It could be much more than $5,000 psf.

    Hong Kong developers have been organising fully-paid-for tours for tycoons from the mainland China. One of the itinerary of these tour is a lunch-shopping trip to a showroom, where these tycoons can grab all they want, a $8,888 psf item, a $13,000 psf item or the best-of-the-best-$20,000 psf item.

    With this purchase, China Sonangol will be adding a new destination for these tours - Singapore. These tycoons hate to be labelled as "cheapskate". The last thing China Sonangol want to do is to make them "lose face" when they are back in their homeland after a Singapore tour.

    Just ask youself these questions:
    1. Are China Sonangol buying this site to compete against the local big boys who have all the cost advantage?
    2. If China Sonangol can't beat the local big boys in terms of cost, why should they even bother to buy the site?
    3. Are China Sonangol willing to offend their most-valuable customers by offering them a condo that is not the most expensive in Singapore and costs just 25% of those in Hong Kong?
    ... $3,500 psf from CBRE ...
    ... median luxury price in HK is much higher than Singapore's ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    that's what i meant. China Sonangol Land is just a property arm of China Sonangol International. They are so well diversified.

    and precisely, you see Sonangol Asia office 5 days a week and you can tell me they are a property developer? They are in the business of distribution and production of oil and gas.
    ... China Sonangol Land is a Hong Kong-based developer ...
    ... Keppel Land is a Singapore-based developer ...
    ........

  13. #913
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    yes, i know 3500psf from CBRE but the rest is not and yes, of course median luxury price in HK is much higher than Singapore's, but not at the levels of "singapore at only 25% of hk" which u derived using that record psf.


    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    ... $3,500 psf from CBRE ...
    ... median luxury price in HK is much higher than Singapore's ...

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    Interesting discussion.........................
    As I see the market evolve, there are 2 scenes that came to my mind.

    1) In the show Independence Day, there were this group of people that went to a building rooftop, singing, dancing and carrying banners in anticipation of their ALIEN FRIENDS......we know what happen to them after that.

    2) during 2005 tsunami....as the tide retreated back to sea before the mega waves hit back onshore, lots of people went forward to admire at the extraordinary scene. We also know what happen to them after that.....

    But human is always like that.....we always believe that we learn from experience, we are wiser after every crisis (financial or not), always with the view that "I am smarter than the rest, when the market tank, I will long had exited my position, pity those dimwits, ha ha ha"

    If all else fails, the "Dun worry, government will come to the rescue....we/China/Asia/IMF/WB have XXXXXXbillions in reserved."

    Quote and unquote from the lyrics of an oldie "Yes I think to myself, what a WONDERFUL WORLD"

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    IMF lifts Singapore forecasts
    Reuters
    Seoul, South Korea
    Thursday, 29 October 2009


    The Singapore government has forecast the economy would contract by between 2% and 2.5% this year.

    The International Monetary Fund on Thursday upgraded its economic growth forecasts for Singapore for this year and 2010 from previous projections announced at the start of this month.

    The IMF forecast in its regional economic outlook report, released in Seoul, that Singapore's gross domestic product would expand by 4.3% in 2010 after contracting by 1.7% this year.

    It had predicted in its world economic outlook report, released on Oct 1, that Singapore's economy would grow 4.1% in 2010 after shrinking by 3.3% this year.

    The Singapore government has forecast the economy would contract by between 2% and 2.5% this year.

    The IMF neither changed forecasts for other economies in the region from those announced previously nor elaborated on the upgraded forecasts for Singapore.

  16. #916
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    ... China Sonangol Land is a Hong Kong-based developer ...
    ... Keppel Land is a Singapore-based developer ...
    ........
    You forgot another "Land" ...

    Mr. Low Land ... Chinese-turned-Singapore Citizen.

    The Business Times

    October 29, 2009

    At 74 Lowland Road, which is next to a temple, the three-storey semi-detached house with six bedrooms was sold for $1.72 million or $636 psf of land area. The buyer is understood to be a former Chinese national who is now a Singapore citizen.

    Mr. Low Land may not have as much financial muscle as China Sonangol, but there are many of him.

    If just 1% of the Chinese become millionaires and 1% of these millionaires decide to migrate to Singapore (maybe because they are afraid of another Cultural Revolution), there's not enough landed houses in Singapore for them to purchase.

    You can similarly see the effect of Indian NRIs on the Katong Road area where bungalow/ semi-detached houses have more than doubled in value from around $400 psf (land area) in 2006 to almost $1,000 psf (land area) today.

    That's really HOT money!


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    effect of singapore's super easy PR/citizenship policies and globalisation. localy-born singaporeans earning local income now have to compete with foreigners with both foreign sourced and local incomes.

    we'll see $1m hdb soon

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    effect of singapore's super easy PR/citizenship policies and globalisation. localy-born singaporeans earning local income now have to compete with foreigners with both foreign sourced and local incomes.

    we'll see $1m hdb soon
    Pinnacle @ Duxton

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    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    You forgot another "Land" ...

    Mr. Low Land ... Chinese-turned-Singapore Citizen.

    The Business Times

    October 29, 2009

    At 74 Lowland Road, which is next to a temple, the three-storey semi-detached house with six bedrooms was sold for $1.72 million or $636 psf of land area. The buyer is understood to be a former Chinese national who is now a Singapore citizen.
    Mr. Low Land may not have as much financial muscle as China Sonangol, but there are many of him.

    If just 1% of the Chinese become millionaires and 1% of these millionaires decide to migrate to Singapore (maybe because they are afraid of another Cultural Revolution), there's not enough landed houses in Singapore for them to purchase.

    You can similarly see the effect of Indian NRIs on the Katong Road area where bungalow/ semi-detached houses have more than doubled in value from around $400 psf (land area) in 2006 to almost $1,000 psf (land area) today.

    That's really HOT money!

    ... and ChiNext has just created another few more China billionaires/millionaires today ...

    ... talking about hot ... more than double ... luckily there are circuit breakers ...

    Quote Originally Posted by Reuters

    China's Nasdaq-style market sizzles on debut
    Lu Jianxin and Edmund Klamann
    Reuters
    Shanghai, China
    Friday, 30 October 2009, 2:59pm CCT


    A retail investor monitors share prices in front of an electronic board at a brokerage house in Changzhi, Shanxi province 30 October 2009. - Photo: Stringer, Reuters

    The ChiNext stock market, China's long-awaited Nasdaq-style second board, debuted on Friday with a speculative surge that more than doubled the price of all its 28 stocks -- a good sign for firms lining up to list on China's main stock markets.

    The bubbly open to a market that hopes to turn local start-up firms into budding Microsofts or Intels stirred concerns about speculative froth, but analysts said circuit-breakers would curb excesses while a steady supply of new shares would help to keep mainland stock valuations under control.

    "We certainly won't build positions at such high prices," said a senior manager at a Chinese mutual fund, who could not be quoted by name as he was not authorized to talk to the media.

    The huge interest has created dozens of yuan billionaires overnight among the firms' founding shareholders, while retail investors lucky enough to win an IPO subscription lottery could cash in on the debut day for up to 40,000 yuan ($6,000) -- a small fortune for China's small investors.

    "I got 2,000 shares in the primary market and I've sold out," said veteran retail investor Lao Yao. "I won't buy on the secondary market. Only die-hards would trade at such high prices."

    ChiNext, part of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in booming southern China, started out with a market capitalization more than 100 times that of China's main Shanghai Stock Exchange, which launched in 1990, and vastly deepens China's capital markets by expanding funding channels for small innovative firms.

    Billionaires

    Market players had expected at least a third of the stocks to more than double on the first day. It is typical for IPOs listing in Shenzhen to double or triple on their debut because of their low capitalization.

    ChiNext halted trade in all 28 new stocks at least once for 30 minutes during the morning after they rose 20% from their opening price, triggering exchange circuit-breakers intended to curb excessive speculation.

    About half the stocks were hit with a second 30-minute halt by extending their gains to 50%. Trading in Chengdu Geeya Technology Co was later halted until three minutes before the close after its stock shot up 80%.

    Film maker Huayi Brothers Media Corp was the most actively traded stock, with investors drawn by the famous celebrities associated with the company.

    The value of Huayi Chairman Wang Zhongjun's shares in the company ballooned to 3.9 billion yuan, while Pu Zhongjie, president of medical equipment maker Lepu Medical Technology, saw his holdings' worth surge to 5 billion yuan.

    "Almost all companies have now seen their share prices surging to excessive valuations, betraying rampant speculation," said Zheng Weigang, head of investment at Shanghai Securities.

    "Such intense investor enthusiasm bodes very well for upcoming IPOs on the market, but we expect speculation to die down after a couple of months or so, mainly because regulators are pushing large numbers of new shares into the market."

    Investor Enthusiasm

    The 28 listees, almost all private companies in contrast with the state-owned corporations that dominate China's main board, completed recent IPOs at prices averaging 56 times 2008 earnings.

    Based on forecast 2009 earnings, analysts estimated the average price/earnings (PE) ratio for the IPO prices at around 40 times, while the huge gains in Friday's trade pushed that up to around 80 times, according to Reuters calculations.

    Investors have not been deterred by the high prices, however.

    The companies raised a combined 15.5 billion yuan from their IPOs, with an average oversubscription ratio exceeding 120 times.

    The high valuations on ChiNext appeared also to boost China's main board, where the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose more than 2 percent in morning trade. The average forecast PE for main-board shares is about 30 times.

    ChiNext's initial 28 start-ups had a market capitalization of 70 billion yuan before trading started, more than doubling to 150 billion yuan by midsession.

    In contrast, the Shanghai bourse listed only eight firms on its debut in December 1990, with a combined market capitalization of less than 700 million yuan.

    The Shanghai exchange, now boasting a capitalization of 17 trillion yuan and the world's fifth largest, traded only 126,000 shares worth 494,000 yuan on its first day.

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    Henderson’s Lee Sells Shares to Buy Land in Hong Kong
    Chia-Peck Wong
    Bloomberg
    Hong Kong
    Friday, 30 October 2009, 6:32pm CCT



    Billionaire Lee Shau-kee said he has sold as much as 30% of his Hong Kong stock investments and is buying land, betting that the government’s efforts to cool home prices won’t work.

    Lee, chairman and controlling shareholder of Henderson Land Development Co., has put HK$20 billion (US$2.6 billion) of proceeds from the sale of shares into real estate, he said at a press conference in Hong Kong yesterday.

    Hong Kong’s third-richest man is increasing his holdings as the government tries to rein in a 28% surge in home values that’s sparked tensions with the city’s developers. The government has raised down payments for luxury apartments and threatened to intervene if the market becomes “unhealthy.”

    The new mortgage measures are not going to have much impact on luxury home prices,” said Lee, 81, whose wealth was estimated at $9 billion by Forbes Magazine in March. “Most of those buyers are tycoons and don’t need to take up mortgages to buy.”

    While luxury home prices have been rising, a weekly measure of Hong Kong homes priced at less than HK$10 million -- the Centa-City Leading Mass Index -- declined 0.3% for the week ended Oct. 25.

    Some buyers have been holding off in hopes they “will benefit since the government doesn’t want prices to continue rising,” said Wong Leung-sing, an associate director at Centaline Property Agency Ltd., which produces the index with City University of Hong Kong.

    Henderson Land rose 7.5% on the Hong Kong stock exchange to HK$55.80, making it today’s best-performer on the Hang Seng Property Index. The shares snapped a five-day decline spurred by concern that government attempts to rein in speculation would hurt earnings.

    Sales Tactics

    Lee’s comments came as Hong Kong Financial Secretary John Tsang stepped up criticism of developers’ sales tactics and expressed concern that the boom in the luxury market would spread to smaller apartments.

    “Developers should not mislead the market or distort the public’s views on the market,” Tsang told legislators yesterday, according to a transcript on the government’s Web site. “I’m concerned about the confusion over the recent sales tactics and transacted prices of the primary residential market.”

    Lawmakers have criticized Henderson for renumbering floors in its 39 Conduit Road development. The top floor of the 46- story building was labeled 88 because the number is considered lucky in Chinese.

    “Our clients like auspicious numbers and it’s common for Hong Kong developers to omit some floors,” Lee said yesterday. The floor-numbering was specified in the developer’s brochures and is “nothing special,” he said.

    'I Don’t Lie'

    Lee also said the HK$439 million price paid for a duplex in 39 Conduit Road was “100% real.” Henderson claimed the HK$71,280 psf price was a record for Asia.

    I don’t lie,” Lee said. “Buyers like these apartments as they are similar to rare jewelry. The more expensive it is, the more the buyers like it.”

    The increase in luxury prices hasn’t affected the mid- segment market, he said. An apartment larger than 1,000 sqft (93 sqm) is categorized as luxury under local industry standards.

    Hong Kong luxury home prices rose 28% in the first nine months of 2009, according to Colliers International. On Oct. 14, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang expressed concern that a property bubble may be forming.

    The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the U.S. currency, so a decline in the U.S. dollar makes the city’s assets cheaper for non-residents, boosting demand further.

    Depreciating Dollar

    “With the depreciation in the dollar, if you don’t buy fixed assets, you will lose money,” Lee said.

    Henderson Land and partner New World Development Co. will pay HK$9.6 billion ($1.24 billion) for a building site, Lee said. Henderson is also spending more than HK$10 billion buying old buildings for redevelopment.

    Values of homes of at least 160 sqm have broken a previous record set in the third quarter of 1997, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city’s central bank, said in an Oct. 23 statement to banks when it tightened downpayment requirements.

    Henderson and New World agreed to buy an agricultural site from the government and convert it to residential use, with an allowed 2.95 million square feet of floor area, Henderson said in a Hong Kong stock exchange statement yesterday.

    The average price is HK$3,253 psf, according to the statement. Henderson units will pay HK$6.53 billion. Of that, HK$5.45 billion will be paid by the company, with outside shareholders in the units paying the balance.

    Henderson’s Land

    Henderson owned 32.4 million sqft of agricultural land in Hong Kong as of June 30, the biggest among the city’s developers, the company said in August.

    The developer also has paid HK$4.2 billion for nine old buildings it bought to redevelop in Hong Kong, and expects to pay another HK$6 billion for similar acquisitions, it said in the statement.

    Lee ranked third in Forbes Magazine’s list of Hong Kong’s wealthiest people published in March, behind Li Ka-shing and the Kwok family of Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    An apartment larger than 1,000 sqft (93 sqm) is categorized as luxury under local industry standards.
    You forgot to highlight the most important words.



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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    ... and ChiNext has just created another few more China billionaires/millionaires today ...

    ... talking about hot ... more than double ... luckily there are circuit breakers ...
    Chinese shares fall sharply at Monday opening, 11/02 2009-11-02 10:38:57   Chinese shares opened sharply lower on Monday morning, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down 2.07 percent to open at 2,933.82.
      The Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.28 percent to open at 12,016.61.
      All stocks but one on the ChiNext exchange, the country's new Nasdaq-style market for small and medium-sized companies, fell by the daily limit of 10 percent at opening of Monday, the second trading day, after a soaring debut on last Friday.(Xinhua)

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    115 bite the dust and counting...............but most people will think that this is something happening at some far away place that has no effect on us here in Asia, just like the initial phase of the Subprime Crisis....


    By Vivek Shankar and Dakin Campbell

    Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Bancorp, the Minneapolis-based lender expanding amid the financial crisis, agreed to acquire nine failed banks owned by closely held FBOP Corp. and seized by regulators yesterday.
    The nine banks will cost the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. a combined $2.5 billion, the agency said. So far this year, 115 banks have failed, sending the insurance fund into a deficit in September and prompting the agency to propose that banks prepay three years of premiums to raise $45 billion.

    U.S. Bancorp agreed to assume all the deposits and essentially all the assets of the banks, in California, Texas, Arizona and Illinois, that were seized yesterday by regulators, the FDIC said. The lender is adding branches, acquiring deposits and seeking to gain share in the mortgage market.

    "This transaction is consistent with the growth strategy that we have outlined many times in the past," Rick Hartnack, vice chairman of consumer banking for U.S. Bancorp, said yesterday in a statement. "We also view this type of acquisition as an efficient means of leveraging" the company’s capital base.

    The company, which in June repaid $6.6 billion from the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, said earlier this month that third-quarter profit rose 4.7 percent on higher net interest margins and fees from mortgage banking and transactions at automated teller machines.
    U.S. Bancorp fell 99 cents, or 4 percent, to $23.22 yesterday in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, and has dropped 19 percent in the past 12 months.

    Earlier this month, the lender purchased Nevada bank branches and $800 million in deposits from BB&T Corp.

    One of the ‘Winners’

    "U.S. Bancorp has clearly distinguished itself as one of the "winners" to emerge from the cycle -- managing to stay profitable in each quarter, repay TARP and add to its normalized earnings per-share power through small fill-in bank and non-bank acquisitions," John McDonald, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., said in a note to investors this month.
    In yesterday’s transactions, U.S. Bancorp picked up 153 branches with combined assets of $19.4 billion and deposits of $15.4 billion as of Sept. 30, according to the FDIC. Almost three-quarters of Oak Park, Illinois-based FBOP’s total loans were for construction and land development or commercial real estate, FDIC data show. Since 2000, FBOP had tripled its assets, according to the agency. FBOP wasn’t closed, the FDIC said.

    Closed Banks

    The banks seized were: Bank USA, National Association of Phoenix; California National Bank of Los Angeles; San Diego National Bank; Pacific National Bank of San Francisco; Park National Bank of Chicago; Community Bank of Lemont, Illinois; North Houston Bank; Madisonville State Bank of Madisonville, Texas; and Citizens National Bank, of Teague, Texas.
    The FDIC included 416 banks on its confidential list of problem institutions as of the second quarter.

    The FDIC, the Federal Reserve and other bank regulators have released guidelines to banks on arranging modifications of commercial real estate loans with borrowers who show a willingness to repay the debt.

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    By John Gittelsohn and Thomas R. Keene


    Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross Jr., said today the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.”
    “All of the components of real estate value are going in the wrong direction simultaneously,” said Ross, one of nine money managers participating in a government program to remove toxic assets from bank balance sheets. “Occupancy rates are going down. Rent rates are going down and the capitalization rate -- the return that investors are demanding to buy a property -- are going up.”

    U.S. commercial property sales are forecast to fall to the lowest in almost two decades as the industry endures its worst slump since the savings and loan crisis of the early 1990s, according to property research firm Real Capital Analytics Inc. The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Indices already have fallen almost 41 percent since October 2007, Moody’s Investors Service said Oct. 19.
    Billionaire George Soros, speaking today at a lecture organized by the Central European University in Budapest, said a “bloodletting” may be coming for leveraged buyouts and commercial real estate.

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    Observations On The US Government's Escalating Near-Term Funding Mismatch


    Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/01/2009 14:48 -0500

    When Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, traditional money repositories, previously considered safe, were all promptly abandoned by investors unsure if they will have access to capital the next day. As a result, money markets, repos, even savings and deposit accounts were plundered in what has been the closest equivalent of a 21st century run on the bank. The only safe venue became US Treasury Bills, as almost overnight nearly half a trillion in very near maturities were invested in the US as the last perceived safe repository of investor capital.

    The rush for near-term safety ended up creating a historic precedent of negative yields on near-term Bills: investors were willing to pay the government to hold their money for them.
    So where do we stand a year later?
    One would expect that as the financial situation improved, and credit was unlocked, that investors would abandon the safety of low-yielding Bills and pursue risk. Ironically, not only has this not happened, but in the 12 months since October 2008, over half a trillion more, $560 billion to be exact, has been parked in T-Bills. Looking at the entire treasury curve, over 40% of the $7 trillion in marketable treasury securities, matures within one year, a dramatic increase from the roughly 30% a year prior. The chart of the current T-Bill maturity schedule is presented below:

    And here is how a Year-over-Year comparison from October 2008 to October 2009 and one year forward maturity data looks. As noted, the overall increase in near-term maturities has increased by a staggering $562 billion, or 25% from the $2.3 trillion in near-term (one year) maturities in 2008.

    Practically every monthly period has seen an increase in T-Bill allocation by investors. This is a troubling trend.
    But before we get into the details of what potential problems this may bring to the US, as the funding mismatch accelerates, this is how the entire curve of marketable securities looked like as of the most recent available data. As noted previously, over 40% of the entire $7 trillion in marketable securities matures essentially within one year.

    Couple of observations here:
    • The increased concentration in near-term UST maturities does not jive with repeated claims of a return to normal credit conditions. While last year's abnormal holdings of T-Bills was explainable as a run to quality from money markets in the wake of Lehman, the fact that this amount has expanded by more than half a trillion flies in the face of conventional wisdom that "everything is now back to normal."
    • The bigger threat is one of asset-liability maturity mismatch. As the assets on the US balance sheet become increasingly long-dated, courtesy of QE, and locking in record low rates, US liabilities in turn have shortened their duration to a record level. Almost $3 trillion in US debt will have to be rolled by the end of 2010. If realistic inflation expectations are any indication, all hopes of getting comparable interest terms on these securities once refinancing time rolls around, will be promptly dashed (we are not saying inflation is inevitable, even with QE 2.0 around the corner). Yet for all who claim inflation is a good thing, the one security that will be hit the most and the fastest will be precisely the T-bill universe, once all the curve steepeners already in place unwind very, very quickly. The result would be a major spike in interest expense payments by the government. The chart below presents the historical annual interest expense on all USTs by year. 2009 will be the first year in which the interest expense alone will be over half a trillion dollars (Zero Hedge estimates).

    The concern is that even as the US debt, which as of Friday was at $11,868,457,477,911.94, and looks like it will hit the $12.104 trillion limit within a few weeks, continues to skyrocket, the interest expense paid on holdings will continue creeping ever higher. Keep in mind, at September 30, the average interest rate on Bills was a historically low 0.347%, and Notes yielded a QE-facilitated 3.043%. With the Fed out, can China and US retail investors support this record low interest at a time when UST supply keeps coming and coming?

    And that assumes that the roll of the T-Bills will continue to occur without a hitch, which at a time when the UST QE is over, may be a rather bold assumption.
    Yet one thing is clear: so far the proverbial "money on the sidelines" has only found USTs and specifically low-yielding Bills to be attractive. Risky assets have been shunned. So at a time when the equity rally has already had a counterintuitive 60% run up, courtesy of a few HFT platforms, some hedge funds and the Goldman prop trading team, just what is it about the market fundamentals (or the economy) for that matter, that will force investors to leave the security of Bills and go into a massively overbought equity market? (And we say counterintuitive because never before have investors bought risky and safe assets with the same zeal at precisely the same time). The answer is unknown, although with a $9 trillion deficit in dire need of funding over the next decade, it is safe to say that investors in Treasurys will not have problems finding opportunities to park their money.
    Source: TreasuryDirect

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    Upbeat outlook on luxury market
    The Business Times Weekend
    Saturday, 31 October 2009

    Wheelock Properties (Singapore) CEO David Lawrence remains upbeat about prospects for Singapore’s luxury residential property market, as the island is increasingly attracting rich people and businesses.

    ‘The interesting thing is that more and more people are becoming PRs and citizens,’ he says. ‘A lot of them are very rich and want the best product. So you’ve got to be a good developer producing good products like Wheelock or SC Global or Hotel Properties Ltd (HPL).’

    Wheelock owns about 16% of SC Global and almost 21% of HPL. ‘We’re happy with our stakes in these companies,’ Mr Lawrence said in a recent interview with BT.

    In April last year, he apologised to shareholders at an annual general meeting for having bought a stake in SC Global at the top of the market in 2007. But now he lets on: ‘I should tell you that I have had approaches from Middle Eastern investors recently to buy our stake in SC Global and I said: ‘Not interested. Thank you very much’.’

    Wheelock acquired its SC Global stake at an average price of $2.35 a share. SC Global’s stock price fell from a high of $3.40 in June 2007 to a low of 29.5¢ in March this year. It has since been recovering, ending at $1.41 yesterday, down 1¢ from Thursday’s closing price.

    The focus of the Singapore Government’s recent measures to stabilise the property market are on the mass and mid segments, which Mr Lawrence reckons ‘went out of control a little bit’. ‘I don’t think the government needs to be concerned about the luxury sector,’ he said.

    The government has done enough to cool the private residential property market – for instance, by promising to release more land in the first half of next year, he feels.

    The recent phenomenon of developers chasing sites and paying high land prices has been fuelled by low interest rate loans to developers by banks. ‘If this liquidity gets out of hand, the government can just release more sites. They’ve got plenty of sites ready to go,’ Mr Lawrence said.

    Around this time last year, he urged investors to buy Singapore property stocks because they were looking cheap after being battered during the financial crisis. Now that property stocks, along with the overall market, have surged – in some cases 100% or even more – Mr Lawrence advises investors to switch out of property stocks and into real or physical assets. ‘Property is one class of real assets and will provide a long-term hedge against inflation,’ he argued.

    ‘I am not saying the property markets are going to shoot up, because the Urban Redevelopment Authority is there to stabilise the market. But now is the time to take profit on paper assets and move into physical assets, which are still the best long-term hedge against inflation. And inflation will be coming back in the next few years.’

    Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and savvy investors are already following this strategy, Mr Lawrence says.

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    Hong Kong tycoon sheds stock, loads up on land
    The Business Times Weekend
    Saturday, 31 October 2009

    Billionair Lee Shau-kee said he has sold as much as 30% of his Hong Kong stock investments and is buying land, betting that the government’s efforts to cool home prices won’t work.

    Mr Lee, chairman and controlling shareholder of Henderson Land Development Co, has put HK$20 billion (S$3.6 billion) of proceeds from the sale of shares into real estate, he said at a press conference in Hong Kong on Thursday.

    Hong Kong’s third-richest man is increasing his holdings as the government tries to rein in a 28% surge in home values that’s sparked tensions with the city’s developers. The government has raised downpayments for luxury apartments and threatened to intervene if the market becomes ‘unhealthy’.

    ‘The new mortgage measures are not going to have much impact on luxury home prices,’ said Mr Lee, 81, whose wealth was estimated at US$9 billion by Forbes magazine in March. ‘Most of those buyers are tycoons and don’t need to take up mortgages to buy.’

    Mr Lee’s comments came as Hong Kong Financial Secretary John Tsang stepped up criticism of developers’ sales tactics and expressed concern that the boom in the luxury market would spread to smaller apartments.

    ‘Developers should not mislead the market or distort the public’s views on the market,’ Mr Tsang told legislators on Thursday, according to a transcript on the government’s website. ‘I’m concerned about the confusion over the recent sales tactics and transacted prices of the primary residential market.’

    Lawmakers have criticised Henderson for renumbering floors in its 39 Conduit Road development. The top floor of the 46-story building was labelled 88 because the number is considered lucky in Chinese.

    ‘Our clients like auspicious numbers and it’s common for Hong Kong developers to omit some floors,’ Mr Lee said on Thursday. The floor-numbering was specified in the developer’s brochures and is ‘nothing special’, he said.

    Mr Lee also said the HK$439 million price paid for a duplex in 39 Conduit Road was ‘100% real’. Henderson claimed the HK$71,280 psf price was a record for Asia.

    ‘I don’t lie,’ Mr Lee said. ‘Buyers like these apartments as they are similar to rare jewellery. The more expensive it is, the more the buyers like it.’

    The increase in luxury prices hasn’t affected the mid-segment market, he said. An apartment larger than 1,000 sqft is categorised as luxury under local industry standards.

    Hong Kong luxury home prices rose 28% in the first nine months of 2009, according to Colliers International, while the benchmark Hang Seng Index almost doubled. On Oct 14, Hong Kong Chief Executive Donald Tsang expressed concern that a property bubble may be forming.

    The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US currency, so a decline in the US dollar makes the city’s assets cheaper for non-residents, boosting demand further. ‘With the depreciation in the dollar, if you don’t buy fixed assets, you will lose money,’ Mr Lee noted.

    Henderson Land and partner New World Development Co will pay HK$9.6 billion for a building site, Mr Lee said.

    Henderson is also spending more than HK$10 billion buying old buildings for redevelopment.

    Values of homes of at least 160 sqm have broken a previous record set in the third quarter of 1997, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the city’s de facto central bank, said in an Oct 23 statement to banks when it tightened downpayment requirements.
    Last edited by Reporter; 02-11-09 at 13:10.

  28. #928
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    An apartment larger than 1,000 sqft (93 sqm) is categorized as luxury under local industry standards.
    Quote Originally Posted by jlrx
    You forgot to highlight the most important words.

    ..........
    Mickey Mouse is a cute character and I am sort of a fan of ©Disney, Mickey Mouse and his friends.

    I know MM units have many fans here recently. However, I will be acting against the grain in a few days time. I will post after I have executed my plan.

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    Lawrence blowing his own trumpet hahaha.


    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter

    Upbeat outlook on luxury market
    The Business Times Weekend
    Saturday, 31 October 2009

    Wheelock Properties (Singapore) CEO David Lawrence remains upbeat about prospects for Singapore’s luxury residential property market, as the island is increasingly attracting rich people and businesses.

    ‘The interesting thing is that more and more people are becoming PRs and citizens,’ he says. ‘A lot of them are very rich and want the best product. So you’ve got to be a good developer producing good products like Wheelock or SC Global or Hotel Properties Ltd (HPL).’

    Wheelock owns about 16% of SC Global and almost 21% of HPL. ‘We’re happy with our stakes in these companies,’ Mr Lawrence said in a recent interview with BT.

    In April last year, he apologised to shareholders at an annual general meeting for having bought a stake in SC Global at the top of the market in 2007. But now he lets on: ‘I should tell you that I have had approaches from Middle Eastern investors recently to buy our stake in SC Global and I said: ‘Not interested. Thank you very much’.’

    Wheelock acquired its SC Global stake at an average price of $2.35 a share. SC Global’s stock price fell from a high of $3.40 in June 2007 to a low of 29.5¢ in March this year. It has since been recovering, ending at $1.41 yesterday, down 1¢ from Thursday’s closing price.

    The focus of the Singapore Government’s recent measures to stabilise the property market are on the mass and mid segments, which Mr Lawrence reckons ‘went out of control a little bit’. ‘I don’t think the government needs to be concerned about the luxury sector,’ he said.

    The government has done enough to cool the private residential property market – for instance, by promising to release more land in the first half of next year, he feels.

    The recent phenomenon of developers chasing sites and paying high land prices has been fuelled by low interest rate loans to developers by banks. ‘If this liquidity gets out of hand, the government can just release more sites. They’ve got plenty of sites ready to go,’ Mr Lawrence said.

    Around this time last year, he urged investors to buy Singapore property stocks because they were looking cheap after being battered during the financial crisis. Now that property stocks, along with the overall market, have surged – in some cases 100% or even more – Mr Lawrence advises investors to switch out of property stocks and into real or physical assets. ‘Property is one class of real assets and will provide a long-term hedge against inflation,’ he argued.

    ‘I am not saying the property markets are going to shoot up, because the Urban Redevelopment Authority is there to stabilise the market. But now is the time to take profit on paper assets and move into physical assets, which are still the best long-term hedge against inflation. And inflation will be coming back in the next few years.’

    Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) and savvy investors are already following this strategy, Mr Lawrence says.

  30. #930
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    China's Nasdaq-style market sizzles on debut The huge interest has created dozens of yuan billionaires overnight
    Quote Originally Posted by Reporter
    Hong Kong tycoon sheds stock, loads up on land, betting that the government’s efforts to cool home prices won’t work.
    Quote Originally Posted by kali-yuga
    115 bite the dust and counting...............
    Oct. 31 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Bancorp, the Minneapolis-based lender expanding amid the financial crisis, agreed to acquire nine failed banks
    Quote Originally Posted by kali-yuga
    Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Wilbur L. Ross Jr., said today the U.S. is in the beginning of a “huge crash in commercial real estate.”
    Quote Originally Posted by kali-yuga
    Observations On The US Government's Escalating Near-Term Funding Mismatch
    The above observations serve to confirm one thing.

    The time has arrived ...

    For 18 of the past 20 centuries China was the biggest economy in the world and a country of enormous sophistication and culture, Patten notes. Modern economic developments in China, he says, represent "a new turn of the wheel."


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