Really serious correction in Shanghai and even dragging nikkei with it. Good luck to the 2767. Ghost month + stock market correction + high ppty prices and volume in jul.
Originally Posted by jitkiat
Senior
Really serious correction in Shanghai and even dragging nikkei with it. Good luck to the 2767. Ghost month + stock market correction + high ppty prices and volume in jul.
Newbie
wonder if there would be blood n the street?
Newbie
To me this is clear, it used to be ambigious, now it's 4 years, unless proven otherwise, you will be taxed.
Newbie
not quite true.. it is only clear that you will not be taxed but not so clear on whether you will be taxed.. you have to be deemed a property trader. of course, exceptions do apply.
Newbie
there is a 4 year rule now.. not sure if they have such 4 year rule in the past?.. from what i have seen, some have err on the cautious side and unload during this peak..
Junior
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjgySMd1XhY
Hint given, time to buy ''seletar''
Junior
Is the capital gain tax apply retrospective or would the 1st of 4 yrs start only in 2010 when the capital tax is passed?
I just sold one big one in 2007.. so I need to time myself if it is retrospective.
Newbie
simple answer is, if u sell another property in 2010, then u will probably be caught under the new rules.
Global recession is coming....
Even if you sell in 2010 doesn't mean that automatically you will be subjected to tax, see below:
"The proposed change is therefore not an anti-speculation measure. It does not mean that individuals who have sold more than one property within a four year period will automatically be subject to income tax. There is no change to the current and long-standing income tax treatment in this regard. Whether individuals who sell properties more frequently are subject to income tax depends on the facts and circumstances of each case."
Junior
It's always good to play safe..
Think i will start selling only after 2012 to avoid paying capital gain tax.
Newbie
If i can make good money, i will just sell. If have to pay tax so be it. 4 years is a long time, no one knows if the window to sell high will still be.
But honestly unless you are a property trader and make an income out of buying and selling property, you are unlikely to be taxed.
Senior
there was a PR couple with made alot of money buying and selling properties in 2006-2007 ..they were NOT property traders ..but they were made to pay tax .. .
it was in the news
Newbie
So what do you think, of a listing like this?
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...e-the-bayshore
8,000,000 for 4000sf at roughly 2000psf. For a renovated D16 penthouse. Bearing in my mind that this is a 99LH property which is already 10 years old. Now I never have been to "The Bayshore" condo, so I cannot judge it. How ever maybe one of you bulls can rationalize this one for me. Sure this is negotiating price, but even at 1500psf this hardly makes sense in my opinion. Or am I missing something?
Junior
maybe it comes with the agent Ivy? but even then, she's overpricing herself. I wouldn't pay more than $4m for the unit and at the very most, a couple of more Gs for her to turn tricks.
Newbie
600-700 psf are latest transactions for The Bayshore.
This guy should set up as an act in the boom-boom room. Natural comic.
(I now silently wait in anticipation of someone telling us we should buy DBR instead)
Junior
(I now silently wait in anticipation of someone telling us we should buy DBR instead
Not again!
Junior
Pls, nobody can replace Kumar. Vote Kumar for President!! (also indian, but makes prata with eggs. the other one kosong)600-700 psf are latest transactions for The Bayshore.
This guy should set up as an act in the boom-boom room. Natural comic.
(I now silently wait in anticipation of someone telling us we should buy DBR instead
Senior
don't want lah, a only a bimbo would put up this kind of advertisement. not worth a few grand.
Junior
sellers r getting unrealistic, think with this kind of expectation, he/she can hold on to the property until the next boom but by then the 99LH property would have depreciated much more...
Newbie
Indeed, this seller do hold a lot of units for rental, but this no oridinary seller, it is also a `well known' developer who likes to price its projects sky high and keep unsold units for rental, often times for over 10 yrssellers r getting unrealistic, think with this kind of expectation, he/she can hold on to the property until the next boom but by then the 99LH property would have depreciated much more...
So i guess at this asking price, they can `safely' hold it till the next boom, or the next, or the next....or maybe just untill the whole 99 lease is over, haha, since this developer think they are so rich. I for sure will not line the pockets of this developer.
Newbie
Maybe she entered one more zero, should be $800,000. Call her to find out lor.
Newbie
No need maybe, with this ad, she had already capture the attention of the reader.Maybe she entered one more zero, should be $800,000. Call her to find out lor.
Imagaine, if you call to check, she tell you $800,000 only lah, then you think is good buy and go and buy.
Junior
how i miss those good ol days when the market was pi, chi, and plenty of tua liap ni for one to choose fr
Senior
even if it comes with Ivy, fully furnished , its stil way over priced ..
and what a strange family name , FindaHome ? maybe she is swedish , Findaholm ...
urrgghh
Senior
definitely bimbo ..no brain .. somemore title Senior Group Director ??
with such a rank, she should know this property owner is making a fool out of her .. . maybe its her own property ..
the kitchen hood, so nice , but no use .. all condo hood are for decoration only .. they still blow hot air back into the kitchen .. unlike landed house, where the hood are piped all the way out of the house .. so all smell and oil and hot air are sucked and blown out ..
opps i used dirty words ...
Newbie
well, kind of disapointed that no one could rationalize the reason why it should command such a high price
So some International schools have started their new school year, a few more will start the within next 2 weeks. So those who have not rented out their larger upmarket condo´s and houses by now, will most likely have a problem finding tenants, as it is unusual for a family with kids to move during the school year. It will be interesting to see how good their holding power will be over the next few months, if rental will decline further.
F01 N54 Sheer Driving Pleasure
US home prices rise
J.W. Elphinstone
Real Estate Writer
Associated Press
New York, New York, US
Tuesday, October 27, 2009, 9:25am US EDT
A home with a reduced price is for sale in Carmel, Ind. neighborhood, Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2009. - Photo: Michael Conroy, AP
US home prices rose for the third straight month in August, data Tuesday showed, a key sign for a broad and sustained housing recovery.
The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home price index of 20 major cities climbed 1% from July to a seasonally adjusted reading of 144.5. While prices are down 11.4% from August a year ago, the annual declines have slowed since February.
Prices are at levels not seen since August 2003 and have fallen almost 30% from the peak in May 2006.
The latest index shows a widespread turnaround with prices rising month-over-month in 15 metro areas since June.
"If the increases are consistent across the markets, this is key," said Wharton School real estate professor Susan Wachter before the index was released. "Then we're seeing the formation of a bottom."
However, Wachter along with other industry experts still worry that rising unemployment and more foreclosures could stifle the rebound. Another unknown is whether a temporary federal tax credit for first-time buyers will be extended to help boost sales.
First-time homebuyers can receive a credit of 10% of the sales price, up to US$8,000. The real estate industry is lobbying Congress to extend the credit past the Nov. 30 deadline. Top Democrats in the Senate are pressing a plan that would prolong the credit but gradually phase it out over the next year.
Not all metros posted gains in August, though. Prices in Las Vegas, Seattle and Charlotte, N.C., all fell to their lowest levels in August. Prices in Las Vegas have plunged by 56% since peaking in April 2006, the largest peak-to-trough decline of all 20 cities.
Newbie
From Bob Janjuah
Apologies for not writing much recently but I was out/on vacation/travelling over virtually all of June and July, as well as the whole of Aug. Further, the new comment below was written in the 1st week of Sept and was set to be released on Sept 7th, but sadly my dear Father passed away on Sunday 6th, as a result of which I have been out for the last fortnight. The release of my comment was therefore delayed until I got back into the seat, to deal with questions etc. I mention my father because he was the man who helped make me the cautious guy I am. He taught me to always question the consensus, he taught about the evils of too much debt and big government, about the willingness of our leaders to 'spin' us - way before 'spin doctor' was even a label in the English language, and it was he who taught me that, over the course of human history, the masses have always looked for the 'it's different this time' angle when, almost without exception, it's never really that 'different' - the lyrics may change a bit, but the tune is nearly always the same. As the mighty Zep put it many years ago, the Song Remains the Same.
The long version of what I have to say is below - please read, hopefully enjoy, and I welcome feedback/questions/comments/abuse/support. The short version - to me - seems to be this: Either Balance Sheets matter or they don't. And if they do, as I think they DO, then the balance sheets that matter are, on one side, the Private Sector, where deleveraging and deflation forces abound, and on the other side the Public Sector, where (IMHO) utterly reckless fiscal and monetary policy is creating the New Bubble - the Public Sector Debt (or Funny Money) Bubble. And in this contest, the key question is whether the Public Sector is WILLING & ABLE to continue its reckless behaviour for long enough and in enough size to offset and then overwhelm the Private Sector's prudence. Wrapped around this debate is how far the Equity/Risk Asset bubble can continue to be blown up in the absence of any real Private Sector investment/spending/growth - ie, the 'Invest Cheap Liquidity in Assets And Hope' Bubble. I think it's about as simple as that. AND my fear (as opposed to my belief), as I have written before (see below), is that the governments of the US and UK in particular will, wrongly in my view, think they have No Limits and are liable to keep printing/monetising/borrowing at will.
HISTORY tells us that this will end in failure, with ugly consequences, the net result being MORE DEBT that needs to be repaid thru vicious spending cuts & higher taxes, a (monetary) inflationary BUST and/or a currency shocker - to be swiftly followed by a longer term Debt Deflationary bust. So, in 1 line, all I think is certain - if you think like me - is that the longer the current bubbles persist & the bigger these bubbles are blown up, the BIGGER the explosion will be when it all goes POP. And realistically, I am talking weeks/moths, NOT qtrs/years. YOU may be smart enough to 'get out' of risk in time, but the overwhelming majority will not. And at that time, there will be NOBODY left to bail us all out......Of course, if the Public Sector gets religion sooner rather than later, we may by-pass the inflationary bust and proceed directly to the debt deflation phase driven by the Private Sector's actions. I think a long period of debt deflation is almost certain, whatever the policy choices now. The only issue is how far the Public Sector will debase/damage its (our!) balance sheet before it sees the follies of its way. My fear, not hope, is that this realisation happens too late and that we get the worst case of deep monetary inflation swiftly leading onto debt deflation. NOBODY has yet been able to tell me why we should not proceed directly to debt deflation, other than some claptrap about how UK and US consumers NEED & have some God given right to borrow and consume. The masses that make up the community of analysts, economist etc that did such a good job into the 07/09 bust (!!) are of course complicit again - and shockingly they are repeating the same grievous error they made back in the 2002/2005 period when they could see no inflation and thus validated the Greenspan Fed's mother of all policy errors. When will folks stop looking at rigged CPI data for proof of inflation??? Has the 2002/2005 episode not taught us that MONETARY RECKLESSNESS, as we had back then and as we are repeating now, will show up in FALSELY INFLATED asset prices - and NOT in the prices of Goods & Services - which, if unchecked, has and will again lead to hideous bubbles which ALWAYS burst badly when policy is set by folks wedded to utterly bogus and what by now should be totally discredited policy think/policy action.
When risk assets top out - level, timing - is always difficult to predict. I think its weeks/months away, and I very much think we are in the deep tail of the risk asset rally. I know a lot a smart folks who think this can go higher and for a bit longer then I think, and I can see the argument. But nearly all the folks who I respect and have talked to for a long time agree that if it goes on for much longer then it will end in a terrible mess. As such I think its time to take off my TRADER hat, which correctly called a decent part of the 09 bounce (but by no means all if it) and put on my INVESTOR hat. With this hat on, it is clear to me that, as we get into Q4 09, and probably for the next 12/18/24 months, I DO NOT want to own 'risk' (credit - esp. HY, equity), I DO NOT want to own USDs and GBPs on a long term basis, and I DO want to look at owning assets in EUROs (and maybe also JPY and AUD). In particular, because the ECB is by far the most credible central bank left when the choice is between the Fed, the ECB and the BoE, it appears to me that the Eurozone will drop into the debt deflation zone sooner rather than later and will by-pass the the MONETARY inflation risks so prevalent in the UK and US, thus on a decent investment horizon, I want to own very long dd govt debt issued from core-Europe, esp. of course Germany and France. I think getting a 4%+ carry on a multi-yr basis on German sovereign risk and ECB prudence makes an awful lot of sense at a time where not much else really has ANY VALUE left.
So, with that cheery intro/summary, read on.....
New Comment Written Sept 4th:
So, back from hols, and one thing is abundantly clear. Whilst the last 2yrs have not been much fun for anyone, it HAS been kinda 'cool' to have been seen not just as a Bear but also a Bear who was early and kinda right all the way thru this timeframe. But NOT anymore. It is clear to me now, based on feedback/comments/discussions/body language etc etc, that something has changed.
People now desperately want to see the back of the bad times (recession, bear markets) and now want to look forward with optimism. Even some folks who have been firmly in the Bob/Kevin camp thru 07, 08 AND 09 to date are getting nervous/shifting positions. You would all be AMAZED at the reactions I have seen from many market professionals to my piece (see below) written before I went away. Of course, some folks get their dose of Bob's World from unauthorised 'usage' by the mass media - for the record, I do NOT as a rule speak to the media, I'd rather focus on clients - and as such will never see everything I write, but even some of those who get my comments in full as clients of RBS have homed in very sharply on the Stop Loss trigger I put in place below - S&P above 1022 for 4 consecutive days. YES, S&P did hold above 1022 for 6 consecutive closes, but each of these closes was pretty marginal, low volume days, where the close was well off the intra-day highs, and of course this week we have so far seen 4 consecutive closes below 1022, by a decent margin too. And that was after a super bullish ISM - could it be that 'real' expectations were/are now getting much more bullish? Or could it be that folks saw the very high Prices Paid line and fear inflation? Or could it be that some folks saw the level of the New Orders line and fear - based on history - that this is the cyclical peak? Time will tell....
Anyway, let me say 1st up that even though its all been pretty marginal, the RISK here is that over the next month or so we see risk assets go even better. This is a TACTICAL call and is NOT a change in the 3/6mth secular call, which REMAINS BEARISH. Andy Chaytor set some levels last week which I am comfortable with - there is a 60/40 chance that S&P trades up to 1120ish by end Sept/early Oct. I think the next month will be volatile and NOT straight line, but on balance the risk is that by month end/early Oct, risk assets will be better. And YES, I know that Sept is seasonally one of the weakest months, that we are already 5% off the Aug highs, and that 'everyone' - even the bulls - think we need a period of pullback/consolidation, but for me the perfect head fake will be a strong (but volatile) Sept.
I do however think that we are VERY MUCH in the tail end of the correction of the Oct 07 to Mar 09 bear move, where S&P lost nearly 60% from peak to trough, and where the correction from the Mar low would, at 1120, represent the 50% retrace. Once what I assume is a bear mrkt correction finishes, over the next month or so, I expect the Bear to return with vengeance and I retain my call for NEW LOWS in equities. That's 550 S&P!!
Please do not forget that vicious 40%/50% retracements are NORMAL in the middle of secular multi-yr bear markets. Look at the charts. Very clearly it is extremely common for sentiment to swing between extreme fear and extreme greed, and it is very common to see secular bearish trends in data punctuated by cyclical - usually govt/central bank/policy inspired - spikes, which can last weeks to months to a qtr or 2. The critical question to answer is what is the secular trend and what is the cyclical trend, and when - assuming they are different - is one giving way to the other.
Why do I remain a secular Bear? Well, for me, I have yet to see ANY meaningful evidence of self-sustaining private sector demand, which I have said for many months is the key to a sustained/secular economic recovery and asset price recovery. All I see is growth and asset price gains driven by the willing and reckless estruction of government and central bank balance sheets. This is NOT sustainable IMHO. I continue to see a private sector that wants to pay down debt, increase savings, cut costs, take less risk. And I see the period of government and central bank driven boom times as rolling over very fast from here on in. Why? Because I think balance sheets and sustainability - govt, central bank AND private sector, MATTER. If they no longer matter, I will be WRONG, and I will have to accept that the policy of 'Print/Borrow/Spend on Rubbish we don't Need' is a limitless phenomena, without consequences, which means there should never be a bear market ever again....I hope this sounds as ridiculous to you reading as it did to me when writing.....
Of course if I am wrong then additional Stop Losses are critical. For me, the next stop loss is at 4 consecutive S&P closes above 1120. I recognise that the weight of opinion/mood is against me, and that it would be far EASIER for me to roll over, get with the herd, and move to the bull camp. But I have yet to see anything that convinces me otherwise - the ISM going back up to 50 was what Kevin told me in Jan/Feb we'd see, by around August time - and critical here is the call on whether balance sheet health & sustainability matters or not. Until I see hard evidence telling me otherwise, I will run the risk of being labelled unpopular/a perma-bear/blind/stupid - take your pick, I have been called much worse...by my wife!
Kevin and I, back in Jan/Feb, said that, at that time, we were in the most risky phase of the bear market and that a 2 qtr rally in risk assets and eco data was the KEY SURPRISE/RISK. We were right. Now, in Sept, I think we stand at the most risky phase of the 'bull' market (correction?), where a 2 qtr dive in risk assets and eco data will be the key surprise/risk. Let's see if we are right, but if not, then clearly something extra-ordinary is happening and I will have to hang my head in shame and go back to school to learn how to teach, cook or drive a taxi.
It is also of course important to highlight that if I am wrong and if what the equity market is telling us is right, than govvie bond yields are going to explode higher, esp. in the UK and US, but this is a discussion for another day....
Disaster delayed? Not for much longer me thinks...SURE, the US has the advantage of a bit more fiscal flexibility and reserve currency status (for now) over say the UK, so I am fully prepared for MORE fiscal and monetary debasement in the US over the next few yrs. But even the US has limits/credibility issues, and if its not already clear it will become clear that the marginal return from such debasement is getting and will continue to get weaker and weaker. Here, the lesson from Japan post the 80s boom are clear - look at the Nikkei charts, a secular multi-yr bear market, punctuated by several vicious 'govt-sponsored' bear market rallies, none of which had any long term success, as the response of the private sector was, each time, to hunker down/tighten up/repair balance sheets in direct response to govt debasement.
My final point: the crossroads is only weeks away, and visibility is poor, thus it is extremely difficult to make big calls at this time, esp. when the call is against the growing weight of opinion. Something extra-ordinary MAY be happening and, joking aside, even if its not, precise timing is always difficult. But based on everything I know and see I would be using any further risk asset rallies over the next month or so as an oppose to sell risk/raise cash/get short, and to flip out of high beta risk low quality risk, into low beta high quality risk.
As ever, all feedback welcome.
Newbie
By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Stocks make new highs, but two hares and a tortoise think the rally may be ending.
But first, a (more cheerful) proprietary word: The Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index (HSNSI) -- which the reflects the average equity exposure among a subset of the short-term market timing newsletters tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest -- stood last night at 35.5%, unchanged for a week.
This reading is considerably below the levels reached in May and July, when the rally was not as far advanced. Mark Hulbert regards it positive from a contrary opinion standpoint.
The two "hares" are letters I check in with regularly because they are kind enough to provide updates after every market close, very convenient for journalists with evening deadlines.
One of them, Dennis Slothower's Stealth Stocks Daily, was among the very few services to make money in the Crash year of 2008. It also has a strong longer-term record. ( See Dec. 17, 2008, column.)
Slothower has been systematically skeptical of this year's stock surge, although he did grudgingly experiment with bullishness a couple of months ago. ( See Mark Hulbert's Aug. 11 column.)
His skepticism has hurt him, but not disastrously: Over the year to date through September, Stealth Stocks Daily is up 2.1% by Hulbert Financial Digest count, as compared with 21.3% for the dividend-reinvested Wilshire 5000 Total Stock Market Index.
Slothower's skepticism is deepening.
He wrote on Friday night: "The big question I have is about the dollar. It was reported that Ben Bernanke talked tough last evening when he said that the Fed can't indefinitely continue its policy accommodation for fear of triggering inflationary pressure. While the statement wasn't anything new, it was enough to lend support in the context of the dollar's recent doldrums. ... So, the Fed is once again walking a tightrope here. How low can they let the dollar go before their hand is called by the foreign holders of huge dollar reserves? We may be real close."
Actually, Slothower is more than skeptical: He is outright suspicious, one of the few letters willing to say explicitly that the markets have been manipulated. ("I believe the financial disaster and the 2009 banking recovery show obvious signs of intervention and intentional manipulation that got out of hand -- maybe in both directions.")
This leads Slothower to a paradoxical conclusion: "It sure looks like they are trying to get the markets up one more time, maybe to battle terrible third-quarter outlooks for the future. But have they finally reached the end of their rope? Is one more final push to the sky going to be the last for a while? ... I maintain a bullish but very cautious and concerned outlook for the next quarter or two. The Fed may be getting in over their heads here."
My other helpful hare, Dow Theory Letters' Richard Russell, is even gloomier, because of what he sees as "a major non-confirmation," with the Dow Jones Transportation Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:djt (DJT 3,743, -29.95, -0.79%) failing to echo the new high scored by the Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (INDU 9,925, +56.83, +0.58%) .
My "tortoise" is veteran Howard Ruff of Ruff Times. He only publishes once a month and has been known to ignore the stock market completely if he sees no reason to change his long-term negative stance. ( See Aug. 13 column.)
But in his newest issue, Ruff has suddenly become aggressively negative: "You can now bet against the stock market. I don't usually make 'short-term' calls like this, but the stock market has made such a big, unsustainable rally, it will cave in big-time. If you carefully read the history of the Great Depression of the '30s, you will see that at least twice during the Depression the stock market had a rally equal to the one we just had in the last few months. If you are a short-term trader, which I am not, you could probably make a lot of money."
Ruff urges that any long positions be hedged with the Rydex Inverse S&P Strategy fund /quotes/comstock/10r!ryurx (RYURX 38.68, +0.45, +1.18%) .
Ruff's folksy flamboyance revolts some readers. But the HFD shows his concentration on precious metals and commodity stocks has achieved a remarkable 96.4% gain over the year to date. And he has solidly outperformed the market going back 10 years.
Newbie
This is a follow up of the double no confirmation that was mention in one of the CLSA in-house article (Bits & Pieces, for those who happens to read and enjoy reading it)
Guy Adami and Dennis Gartman have both spotted an important technical indicator that they find troublesome, to say the least.We’re talking about the technical patterns emerging in the Dow Transports. Adami, Gartman and other market pros believe this highly watched index may be showing signs of a double top – traditionally a bearish sign.
The negative signs are at least twofold 1)the transports have not made a higher high since September 15th and 2) as the index fell volume swelled but as it rose volume waned.
That’s bearish if you’re a Dow Theorist
(Dow Theory is a thesis which contends the market is in an upward trend if either the DJ Industrial Average or DJ Transports advances above a previous important high and then the other makes a similar advance.)
I’m not a Dow Theorist but you can't ignore this kind of signal, explains Dennis Gartman on Fast Money. We’ve had reversals and we broke an uptrend line, he explains. Those patterns are significant - they're not to be ignored.
When the Transports don't make a new high as the Industrials do, we're looking squarely at a bearish technical indicator, says Gartman. We're looking at problems in the very near future.
What’s the trade?
Enough things happened technically last week, and the demise of the Transports on Monday, make me think stocks could drop 10%-15% from the highs, says Gartman. I'd be short of the market. Place your bets accordingly, he counsels.
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