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We cannot say we have not been warned.
By Eric Martin
June 24 (Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is mirroring moves in oil and metals by the most in 53 years, jeopardizing strategies that seek to smooth out returns through diversification.
The CHART OF THE DAY shows the relationship between the S&P 500 and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, which tracks 19 commodities, for the past 20 years. Their so-called correlation coefficient based on percentage changes over the past 60 days climbed to 0.74 on June 22, the highest in the two decades shown on the chart and in Bloomberg data going back to 1956. Readings of 1 mean prices are moving in lockstep.
“They’re kind of the same trade, a bet on improvement in the economy,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, who helps oversee $233 billion as chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston.
“I don’t think you’re diversified just because you have stocks and commodities in your portfolio.”
The S&P 500 has climbed 33 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 amid signs the deterioration in the U.S. economy was slowing. The CRB Index surged 25 percent from the almost seven- year low reached on March 2.
By Jeff Kearns
June 30 (Bloomberg) -- The drop in the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index below its level when Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed left the benchmark gauge of U.S. options prices 26 percent above its average.
A four-month rally in equities pushed the VIX to 25.35 yesterday, down 37 percent for the year and giving it the first close below 25.66, the level before Lehman filed the biggest- ever bankruptcy on Sept. 15, 2008. The index had declined 69 percent from its record of 80.86 on Nov. 20, 2008. Today, the VIX increased 3.9 percent to 26.35.
Above-average volatility shows traders are still paying up for insurance to protect against losses in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index. More gains depend on investors overcoming the remaining skepticism, sometimes called the “wall of worry,”
spurred by last year’s 38 percent slump in the equity index, the steepest since 1937.
“It’s still elevated because people aren’t 100 percent sure this is all over,” said Stefen Choy, founder of Livevol Inc., a San Francisco-based provider of options market data and analytics. “Everyone is waiting because they know the worst is over, but they don’t know how fast the recovery is going to be.”
The VIX slipped 2.2 percent to 25.35 yesterday. The S&P 500 added 0.9 percent to 927.23, extending its best quarterly advance since 1998, as energy producers gained with the price of oil. The benchmark index for U.S. equities climbed 37 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 on speculation that the first global contraction since World War II is easing.
Signs of Recovery
In the U.S., the Conference Board’s measure of leading economic indicators increased in April for the first time since June 2008 and rose again last month. Analysts covering S&P 500 companies boosted 2009 profit estimates for the first time this year in May, weekly data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Lehman, once the fourth-largest U.S. securities firm, filed the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history on Sept. 15, prompting a freeze in credit markets. The VIX surged 24 percent to 31.70 that day.
The VIX has averaged 20.18 in its history stretching back to the start of 1990. After peaking in November, it dipped below 30 in May for the first time in eight months. The index reached an intraday record of 89.53 on Oct. 24.
The stock market has slumped in the past when the VIX traded at this level. It closed at 25.95 on June 15, 1998. The S&P 500 retreated 11 percent in the next 2 1/2 months as Russia’s debt default and Long-Term Capital Management’s failure caused losses at financial firms. The VIX stood at 25.47 on March 30, 2000, as the Internet bubble was bursting in a collapse that erased 49 percent from the benchmark index for U.S. stocks through October 2002.
Smaller Swings
The VIX is also dropping because stock-market swings are decreasing, which means dealers aren’t able to charge as much for contracts. Twenty-day historic volatility, a gauge of past price swings, for the S&P 500 has declined from this year’s peak of 51.16 on March 24 to a nearly 10-month low of 19.52.
“Option market makers have to maintain option prices at a level that reflects the actual volatility of the market,” said Dan Hutchinson, head of derivatives at Meridian Equity Partners Inc. in New York.
In February, Congress approved a $787 billion economic stimulus plan to help jump start growth and end the longest recession since World War II.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has made unprecedented use of the central bank’s powers as the lender of last resort. He kept banks liquid by accepting bonds they can’t trade as collateral for Treasuries and bailed out the nation’s biggest insurer, American International Group Inc.
“Fear of the doomsday scenario has definitely subsided,”
said Jeremy Wien, a VIX options trader at Societe Generale SA in New York. “Given the steps the government has taken and the decrease in huge market swings, it’s entirely reasonable for the VIX to drop to these levels and possibly even lower.”
By Michael Tsang, Rita Nazareth and Adam Haigh
July 6 (Bloomberg) -- The biggest drop in U.S. options prices since 1998 masks growing anxiety over the stock market’s rebound, as traders pay more for bearish contracts than any time since before the failure of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.
Investors are spending the most since August 2008 to protect against a 10 percent decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index versus wagers on an advance, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s one month prior to New York-based Lehman’s bankruptcy. The premium on so-called put contracts increased even after the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a gauge of U.S. options prices known as the VIX, fell 40 percent last quarter.
Traders are locking in gains on the S&P 500, which rose as much as 40 percent since March, on concern the worst U.S.
recession in a half century isn’t abating, according to Huntington Asset Management, BlackRock Inc. and Fiduciary Trust Co. The widening gap between bullish and bearish options belies the VIX’s retreat to below its level when Lehman collapsed and comes as U.S. companies prepare to report second-quarter earnings this week.
“Too many people are thinking the worst is over, life gets better from here,” said Peter Sorrentino, who helps manage
$13.8 billion at Huntington Asset in Cincinnati. “We’re scratching our heads, going, ‘Something doesn’t feel right here.’ It’s probably better to have some insurance on the books.”
Pay-Off Price
Sorrentino, who expects the S&P 500 to retreat more than 10 percent from last week’s closing price of 896.42, said he bought options that pay off if the index declines to 775 in December.
The “strike price,” or the level at which Sorrentino can exercise the contract, implies a 14 percent slump.
The S&P 500 fell 2.5 percent since June 26, the third straight weekly drop, after a worse-than-projected decrease in employment added to concern that rising joblessness will prolong the recession. Futures on the index lost 0.9 percent as of 10:29 a.m. in London today.
After losing almost $11 trillion during a 17-month bear market, U.S. equities have recouped 24 percent of their value since March 9 on speculation that corporate profits will rebound by year-end as economic growth resumes.
The S&P 500 climbed 15 percent in the second quarter, the biggest advance in a decade, as the government and Federal Reserve pledged $12.8 trillion to combat almost $1.5 trillion in losses at the world’s largest financial companies.
The rebound caused traders to pay less for options and pushed down the VIX, a measure of the S&P 500’s “implied volatility,” or expected price swings. It fell to a low of
25.35 on June 29 from 44.14 on March 31.
Not Normal
The reading indicates a 68 percent likelihood the S&P 500 will fluctuate as much as 7.3 percent in the next 30 days, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with the VIX’s all-time high of 80.86 in November, when traders priced in a swing of 23 percent in the S&P 500.
While prices for U.S. options have fallen, they are 38 percent above the average of 20.19 for the VIX over its 19-year history, a sign that financial markets have yet to return to “normal,” according to Carl Mason, head of U.S. equity derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas SA in New York.
The VIX ended last week at 27.95. On Sept. 15, the day Lehman declared the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history, the volatility index closed at 31.70.
“There’s still an element of caution,” Mason said.
“Things have gotten to pre-Lehman levels, but I’m not sure if we can call that normal. The level of the VIX is quite elevated compared to historical levels.”
Cost of Protection
Traders are more inclined to buy insurance against stock market losses than they are to speculate on more gains, options trading shows. The implied volatility for contracts that lock in profits if the S&P 500 falls at least 10 percent in three months was 29.03 on June 29, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
That compares with 20.20 for “call options” that pay off if the index rises at least 10 percent in the same period.
The difference between the prices of the two contracts, known as the implied volatility “skew,” steepened to 44 percent, the biggest premium since Aug. 28. The skew between contracts expiring in six months reached a nine-month high.
In Europe, demand for protection against losses has driven up skew on Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index options to the highest since November. Implied volatility for three-month bets on a 10 percent decline was 31.53 on July 1, compared with 23.08 for wagers on a 10 percent gain, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
‘Back to Reality’
“The jury is still out on the recovery,” said Mark Lyttleton, a London-based manager at BlackRock, which oversaw
$1.28 trillion globally as of March 31. “People are feeling the ‘green shoots’ now, but that will change over the next few months as they get back to reality.”
Call options on the S&P 500 convey the right, without the obligation, to purchase the index at a predetermined price on a specific date. S&P 500 put options give the buyer the right to sell at a set price on a future date.
Traders snapped up insurance against declines in the stock market as the World Bank said that the global recession this year will be deeper than it previously forecast, U.S consumer confidence unexpectedly weakened in June and delinquencies on the least-risky U.S. mortgages more than doubled.
Job cuts will probably push the U.S. unemployment rate to 10 percent by year-end and undermine consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, according to economists’
estimates compiled by Bloomberg.
Earnings at S&P 500 companies have fallen a record seven straight quarters and are forecast to decrease for two more before rebounding at the end of 2009, analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg show. Analysts have trimmed projections for a fourth-quarter profit increase to 61 percent from a prediction of 95 percent when stocks began rallying in March.
Not Better Yet
“While we’ve avoided the doomsday scenario, the recovery is going to be modest,” said Michael Levine, a money manager at New York-based OppenheimerFunds Inc., which oversees about $150 billion. “There’s a concern that things have moved too far, too fast. Fundamentals just stopped getting worse, they haven’t gotten better yet. It’s not going to happen overnight.”
Bill O’Neill at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management says the biggest decline in the VIX since 1998 shows that the appetite for protection has decreased and the premium paid for S&P 500 puts versus calls will diminish as companies start reporting second-quarter earnings this week.
Investors are paying $12.06 for every dollar of operating profit analysts estimate S&P 500 companies will generate next year, a 41 percent discount to the average of $20.45 since 1998, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
Worth the Price?
“The potential for earnings upgrades is underappreciated,” said O’Neill, the London-based strategist at Merrill Lynch Global Wealth, which has $1.1 trillion in assets.
“Valuations per se shouldn’t block an equity-market revival.
The markets will be higher by the end of the year.”
Fiduciary Trust’s Michael Mullaney disagrees and says that the economy and corporate earnings haven’t improved enough to justify piling into equities after the S&P 500’s almost 40 percent rally from its March low.
“We need to have a dramatic improvement in the economy in order to keep on feeding the elevation in stock prices,” said Mullaney, a money manager at Fiduciary Trust in Boston, which oversees $7.5 billion. “All we can say about both the economy and earnings is that the forecast is just less bad.”
“People are taking some positions betting that if things don’t improve, they’ve got some protection,” he said.