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Thread: Property market sentiments?

  1. #301
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    Quote Originally Posted by Property_Owner
    If you go around listening to all this bad news and tell yourself today is going to be bad cause papers headline all the job cuts, pay cuts and whatever w ir u shape letters can be. You will be depressed.

    Things are not as bad as it looks. Be positive and happy. Have confident in yourself and our PAP.
    Stock market has turned cautious. We are at critical juncture. If S&P500 can clear 946 convincingly, there will be further upside. If it fails to hold the 926 support then a big correction is coming. Right now, both bulls & bears are lacking of conviction to make a big move.

    The only thing that is going up everyday is oil ... kind of defying fundamental.

  2. #302
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    Stock market has turned cautious. We are at critical juncture. If S&P500 can clear 946 convincingly, there will be further upside. If it fails to hold the 926 support then a big correction is coming. Right now, both bulls & bears are lacking of conviction to make a big move.

    The only thing that is going up everyday is oil ... kind of defying fundamental.
    I'm damn scare that oil will cross $100 per barrel soon. Now already $71 . The last time it hit tat range, how fast it took to pass $100. But this time agree that no right justification for oil to move up so fast. Risk risk....Who dares wins!

  3. #303
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat

    The only thing that is going up everyday is oil ... kind of defying fundamental.

    every rally has legs & long after those legs grew tired the rally will still persist for some time

    back in '06 volker, summers, and even greenspan were already not-so-privately talking about fear of a US collapse, but does the mkt listen? LOL

  4. #304
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    yeah maybe ... think some analysts now saying W-shaped recovery ... for property?? Fwahh another alphabet coming out instead of L, U, V ....
    hey i find this so funny....W shaped recovery??!!! Ok, so now we are at which side of the W?

    IMO, I think the analysts are so lost they are not sure how to predict the recovery so come out with this W shaped.

  5. #305
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    Quote Originally Posted by novel
    hey i find this so funny....W shaped recovery??!!! Ok, so now we are at which side of the W?

    IMO, I think the analysts are so lost they are not sure how to predict the recovery so come out with this W shaped.
    If they are so good in predicting, why don't they predict what are e 4 numbers for every weekend?

  6. #306
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    Quote Originally Posted by novel
    hey i find this so funny....W shaped recovery??!!! Ok, so now we are at which side of the W?

    IMO, I think the analysts are so lost they are not sure how to predict the recovery so come out with this W shaped.
    Yalor ... almost flipped when I read tt on CNA news brief (those moving ones at the bottom of your TV screen) ... lol

    Thinks short of having more interesting alpha such as Z & S ....

  7. #307
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    Yalor ... almost flipped when I read tt on CNA news brief (those moving ones at the bottom of your TV screen) ... lol

    Thinks short of having more interesting alpha such as Z & S ....
    Please pardon those analyses. They have to come up with something to say. Otherwise, they will lose their job. It is not a matter of whether their analysis is correct or not. It is just that their analysis must be able to generate interest.

  8. #308
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    True lah ... it certainly generated some interest .. can u imagine pp eyes pop big big when u read tt off the TV screen ... apparently, some analysts were saying W-shaped recovery for property (that's wat made me sit up ... wat?!!?). Unfortunately, I could find neither an article in today's papers, nor related biz news on the TV last nite ..

    I only read this (as the papers reported) that 'Trader Vic' Mr Sperandeo said that V-shaped recovery is v unlikely. Using historical data, he forecasted a sell-down will occur after Q4 this year wor ... he the veteran trader predicting the current rally somewat like the rally of 1938 (after the G Depression 1937). He said it won't be a "beautiful" rally wor ...

  9. #309
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    Quote Originally Posted by cheerful
    True lah ... it certainly generated some interest .. can u imagine pp eyes pop big big when u read tt off the TV screen ... apparently, some analysts were saying W-shaped recovery for property (that's wat made me sit up ... wat?!!?). Unfortunately, I could find neither an article in today's papers, nor related biz news on the TV last nite ..

    I only read this (as the papers reported) that 'Trader Vic' Mr Sperandeo said that V-shaped recovery is v unlikely. Using historical data, he forecasted a sell-down will occur after Q4 this year wor ... he the veteran trader predicting the current rally somewat like the rally of 1938 (after the G Depression 1937). He said it won't be a "beautiful" rally wor ...
    That's quite a watered down view liao, compared to what he said at Fullerton yesterday.

    However, the best talk/client event for me this year have to be Satjayit Das whom was invited by DWS Asset Management about 3 months ago. he explained the whole bubble very well and in a very easy to understand manner.

  10. #310
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    In the short run, all markets act like a casino where pple (you and me inclusive) hope to make quick bucks and not be the last one to feed on the dead wood. It is a zero-sum game. Someone will need to foot the bill at the end. In the long run, the property prices will have to adjust to inflation. Or how else can the governments explain to the people that they have not progressed or at least keep pace with inflaton? Don't bet too much hope on the analysts too. They are as sotong as you and me.

  11. #311
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kamaneko
    In the short run, all markets act like a casino where pple (you and me inclusive) hope to make quick bucks and not be the last one to feed on the dead wood. It is a zero-sum game. Someone will need to foot the bill at the end. In the long run, the property prices will have to adjust to inflation. Or how else can the governments explain to the people that they have not progressed or at least keep pace with inflaton? Don't bet too much hope on the analysts too. They are as sotong as you and me.
    ya lor
    those analysts only for reference.
    final decision is on us.

  12. #312
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackswan
    That's quite a watered down view liao, compared to what he said at Fullerton yesterday.

    However, the best talk/client event for me this year have to be Satjayit Das whom was invited by DWS Asset Management about 3 months ago. he explained the whole bubble very well and in a very easy to understand manner.
    fwahhh .. u saw him in person ah?! Cool ... pls share relevant views

  13. #313
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    Default Economic prediction

    IMHO the economy will recover steadily and continue this trend for a while because I think Fed and other governments will keep interest rates to near zero. They will not increase int rates because they are very nervous about a relapse of recession. So I think they will keep int rates near zero for longer than necessary and that will cause the econ to overheat and inflation will set in. I cannot think of any major risk of W recovery or anything like that, for the simple reason that int rates will be kept zero. Any one has any views on this analysis?

  14. #314
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    Quote Originally Posted by Localite
    IMHO the economy will recover steadily and continue this trend for a while because I think Fed and other governments will keep interest rates to near zero. They will not increase int rates because they are very nervous about a relapse of recession. So I think they will keep int rates near zero for longer than necessary and that will cause the econ to overheat and inflation will set in. I cannot think of any major risk of W recovery or anything like that, for the simple reason that int rates will be kept zero. Any one has any views on this analysis?
    short term rates are near zero, but wat is the flip side? long term rates r rising hehe ~

    the debt problem is not going to be solved by massive short term money supply thru borrowing long

    until actual demand returns, i.e. demand not fueled by debt.. otherwise talk of recovery or green shoots is just talk.. my 2

  15. #315
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    HI everybody,need all your valuable advice. Would be going away for 3 years and cant decide whether to lease or sell existing HDB now and buy a pte condo. or do it 3 years later when back.

  16. #316
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    Quote Originally Posted by zappy
    HI everybody,need all your valuable advice. Would be going away for 3 years and cant decide whether to lease or sell existing HDB now and buy a pte condo. or do it 3 years later when back.
    Your guess is as good as mine.

    The above scenario states that you own an existing HDB flat and cannot decide whether to lease or sell existing HDB. Next part is if whether to buy a pte condo if decision is to sell HDB. And the last part is if you had do it 3 years later, which is a better choice. I'll make an analysis attempt for your understanding but again, your guess is as good as mine.

    Firstly, in deciding to lease or sell existing HDB, you have to look at the rental yield and ask whether if that is sufficient for you. If Rental yield is sufficient, decision shall be leasing out. Ignoring risk of losing rental and assuming all else equal. There are alot of other factors affecting decision but I shall keep it simple for illustration.

    Next part on the decision to sell is to look at the Capital gain from disposing the HDB... has it gone up high enough to cover all cost incurred (including opportunity cost of investing the money elsewhere i.e. shares etc plus a profit component). If it has reached a level high enough, you are in a position to sell for profit (Capital gain).

    The tricky part comes when choosing between the two if both are equally attractive. You will end up in a scenario like choosing to eat apple or orange if you desire them equally at that same instance. Of course the final answer shall lie in your stronger preference then.

    Next, if you finally decides to sell over leasing, you are in a position to evaluate if it is the right time to enter the private property market. Lots of analysis in the past used the concept of a gap between price of the private property and the price of hdb. This concept is useful in coming up with the decision.

    The price gap between HDB and private shall be moving in tandem. Which is to say the same direction (though generally only), If both going up, they will be moving up in the same direction but at different rate. If both going down, they will be moving down in the same direction but at a different rate. Use this together with another concept of "lag time" for their individual movements. You could try to understand it as the starting line for each is different from each other and they move at different rate, trying to catch up.

    The best time to sell HDB and enter the private property market is the time when the price gap between private and HDB is the closest/smallest. A scenario where HDB prices keeps on going up and private property keeps on dropping. This is demand and supply in play for HDB and private property if you are familiar with the concept. The scenario will present itself in the following manner and maybe under many other possiblities. If you have more demand for HDB, and government restricts the supply of new HDBs, the price of HDB will remain stable and strong. If there is more demand for HDB over private, price of HDB will rise faster than price of private. Next comes the supply of private assuming its demand is constant. If there is a sudden surge of supply (such as fire sales), private property shall fall. So you end up with HDB going up and up and Private going down and down. The trick is to catch them at the lowest gap. You could end up selling HDB and yet not entering the private property market if the gap remained huge. Again on the decision to sell HDB and buy private, your guess is as good as mine.

    Lastly, the 3 years later is dependent on your view for the future (HDB is better or private is better in future), same analysis but different timeframe and ultimately, it is your bet.

    Again, your guess is as good as mine...

    Hope this is clear enough... its a little technical to illustrate without using charts and I am not going to that here.

  17. #317
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    rental yields ona HDB unit tend to be better than a condo, offcourse a factor is when and at what price point you bought the HDB. If you can, consider keeping the HDB paying off the morgage as soon as possible and than use the HDB rental income + salary to finance a condo. Don´t go upgrade for a condo at all costs.

  18. #318
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    Quote Originally Posted by kalumder
    rental yields ona HDB unit tend to be better than a condo, offcourse a factor is when and at what price point you bought the HDB. If you can, consider keeping the HDB paying off the morgage as soon as possible and than use the HDB rental income + salary to finance a condo. Don´t go upgrade for a condo at all costs.
    If you have subsidized HDB loan bought at reasonable valuation, never sell your HDB as you will lose your subsidized loan. Borrow as long and as much as you can from HDB. When interest rate is low, also no hurry to pay off your private condo bank loan. You can always do partial prepayment when interest rate turns higher.

  19. #319
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    Who knows what will happen in 3 years time, if i were you, I will rent HDB out and then worry about it 3 years later when the picture is clearer.

  20. #320
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    Quote Originally Posted by JohnTan
    Who knows what will happen in 3 years time, if i were you, I will rent HDB out and then worry about it 3 years later when the picture is clearer.
    I juz wonder if that ques was becoz (i) he was thinking of being rid of the hassle of having a tenant for his HDB, or (ii) he was wondering if he would miss out in pte property mkt ...?? Maybe he was thinking of getting a pte & wait for it to TOP when he returns in 3 yrs time? I think it's important to get the objective right first ...

  21. #321
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    Thanks for all your valuable advise. I had purchased HDB during 98 peak and prices have not reached that level. I had initially wanted to cut loss now and buy pte condo since mkt had fallen. I have already purchased a prop using cash & bank financing. I had initially thought that HDB had a rule requiring that I occupy HDB flat (which I have no intention to)even if I had another pte prop. However, found out that I could stay at pte condo and sublet HDB if min occupied period is fulfilled. A good news so decided to rent HDB and decide later.

  22. #322
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    Default Good trader blog website

    http://www.tradersnarrative.com/

    It has been a boring week with S&P500 moving within a tight range of 926-946. 926 is the critical support of 200 day moving average while 946 remains the key resistance. There is a slight bullish bias that Bank of America rallied on Friday with good volume. Hopefully this will lead to a rally in financial sector next week to lead S&P500 above 926 convincingly.
    Last edited by jitkiat; 13-06-09 at 06:47.

  23. #323
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    Default Property market warning - Analysts point to over-supply and weak rental demand

    Straits Times interactive
    June 13, 2009
    Property market warning
    Analysts point to over-supply and weak rental demand
    By Joyce Teo
    THE optimism in Singapore's property market is unsustainable, given an impending over-supply of new flats, weak rental demand and the fact that the country remains in a recession.
    That is the pessimistic view of two research houses, which concluded that the price recovery is highly fragile.

    Citigroup said the market is not at the start of a cyclical upswing and that the spike in home prices cannot last. 'We caution against over-optimism, because fundamentally the market is not ready for a sustained price recovery,' analyst Wendy Koh wrote in a report on Thursday.

    In the same report, she downgraded Allgreen to 'sell', putting the developer in the same 'sell' basket as City Developments, CapitaLand and Keppel Land. Citi also downgraded Wing Tai to 'hold'.

    While there has been strong resale demand, the call for new homes is patchy and rental demand remains weak, Ms Koh said.

    Resale prices of some projects have risen and some developers are reducing discounts for new projects but Nomura Singapore believes these seemingly positive factors are misleading.

    It maintained that the demand for new homes was boosted by price discounting and the interest absorption scheme.

    'A rapid deterioration in rents amid higher supply and weaker demand has undermined yield expectations,' it said.

    Nomura also pointed to the damaging effect of rising unsold inventory and forced sales by defaulting or distressed buyers who bought on deferred payment.

    These properties form a source of 'hidden' inventory that will place further pressure on asking prices.................

  24. #324
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    Quote Originally Posted by egorg
    Straits Times interactive
    June 13, 2009
    Property market warning
    Analysts point to over-supply and weak rental demand
    By Joyce Teo
    THE optimism in Singapore's property market is unsustainable, given an impending over-supply of new flats, weak rental demand and the fact that the country remains in a recession.
    That is the pessimistic view of two research houses, which concluded that the price recovery is highly fragile.

    Citigroup said the market is not at the start of a cyclical upswing and that the spike in home prices cannot last. 'We caution against over-optimism, because fundamentally the market is not ready for a sustained price recovery,' analyst Wendy Koh wrote in a report on Thursday.

    In the same report, she downgraded Allgreen to 'sell', putting the developer in the same 'sell' basket as City Developments, CapitaLand and Keppel Land. Citi also downgraded Wing Tai to 'hold'.

    While there has been strong resale demand, the call for new homes is patchy and rental demand remains weak, Ms Koh said.

    Resale prices of some projects have risen and some developers are reducing discounts for new projects but Nomura Singapore believes these seemingly positive factors are misleading.

    It maintained that the demand for new homes was boosted by price discounting and the interest absorption scheme.

    'A rapid deterioration in rents amid higher supply and weaker demand has undermined yield expectations,' it said.

    Nomura also pointed to the damaging effect of rising unsold inventory and forced sales by defaulting or distressed buyers who bought on deferred payment.

    These properties form a source of 'hidden' inventory that will place further pressure on asking prices.................

    There will always be 2 different views in boom or recession times. Eg. Hotel industry is facing shortage in demand, yet more hotes are coming up. Some see opportunity but others fear of risks. This is basically a high risk and high returns game. As long as you enter the market in the middle of the game, you are fine. Don't enter when it is towards the end (meaning peak).

    A rapid deterioration in rents? I thought I read from newspaper recently that some company is in trouble for sub-divide the units to rent to more tenants. And not in one property but a few. This should bring in the new supply for rented units.

    Rental remains weak. Isn't this the key word? Meaning when rental pick up, prices will also pick up?

    In addition, towards the end of the year, we will be facing new group of working people for the IR and other industry. Do you think the the new or oversupply won't be taken up?

    Fear of oversupply? Unless HDB abolish the bto and go back to previous built then sell approach, I don't see why will there be oversupply.

    But 1 thing I am sure, don't chase blindly. Do your homework, there are still units with potential. As long as you don't overpaid your unit compared with the rest of the owners, you are safe.

  25. #325
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    Quote Originally Posted by vin002
    There will always be 2 different views in boom or recession times. Eg. Hotel industry is facing shortage in demand, yet more hotes are coming up. Some see opportunity but others fear of risks. This is basically a high risk and high returns game. As long as you enter the market in the middle of the game, you are fine. Don't enter when it is towards the end (meaning peak).

    A rapid deterioration in rents? I thought I read from newspaper recently that some company is in trouble for sub-divide the units to rent to more tenants. And not in one property but a few. This should bring in the new supply for rented units.

    Rental remains weak. Isn't this the key word? Meaning when rental pick up, prices will also pick up?

    In addition, towards the end of the year, we will be facing new group of working people for the IR and other industry. Do you think the the new or oversupply won't be taken up?

    Fear of oversupply? Unless HDB abolish the bto and go back to previous built then sell approach, I don't see why will there be oversupply.

    But 1 thing I am sure, don't chase blindly. Do your homework, there are still units with potential. As long as you don't overpaid your unit compared with the rest of the owners, you are safe.

    One word to add.
    Well said!

  26. #326
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    Default What does chart tell you about current market expectation?

    I always believe that the most accurate future indicator (6-12 months) is the market itself. If you look at the share price of CityDev, it peaked at close to $17 in mid 2008 when private residential index shot up to 180, bottomed at $5 1Q 2009 when private residential index down to 139. Basically at $5, the stock market already priced in another 20-30% downside of private residential index (probably down to 100/110) because it is the collective expectation of all market participants that at least another major bank will fail in the US after Lehman. However, the turning point came when the 2 most vulnerable banks, Citibank/BAC managed to report profit for the 1st quarter 2009 and inventory level reached lowest in the last 80 years of US history. Since failure of another US bank looked unlikely and inventory level going up, hot money sitting on the sidelines decided to bet on a recover in early 2010 and started to bid up prices all over the world then herd mentality follows. And today, CityDev is at $9, this has priced in the expecation of IR and expecatation about US recovery/China's growth. Basically, the market is betting that bottom is over and an improvement of property business in early 2010. Going forward, it is extremely important to see whether S&P500 can break its resistance at 946 to increase its gap with the 200 day support line at 926. If that is going to happen, it just means that underlying fundamentals are actually improving rapidly to justify the current high market expectation. Obviously, buying into stock market/property now at high prices is risky until market starts another bullish move.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by jitkiat; 13-06-09 at 13:55.

  27. #327
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    Quote Originally Posted by vin002
    There will always be 2 different views in boom or recession times. Eg. Hotel industry is facing shortage in demand, yet more hotes are coming up. Some see opportunity but others fear of risks. This is basically a high risk and high returns game. As long as you enter the market in the middle of the game, you are fine. Don't enter when it is towards the end (meaning peak).

    A rapid deterioration in rents? I thought I read from newspaper recently that some company is in trouble for sub-divide the units to rent to more tenants. And not in one property but a few. This should bring in the new supply for rented units.

    Rental remains weak. Isn't this the key word? Meaning when rental pick up, prices will also pick up?

    In addition, towards the end of the year, we will be facing new group of working people for the IR and other industry. Do you think the the new or oversupply won't be taken up?

    Fear of oversupply? Unless HDB abolish the bto and go back to previous built then sell approach, I don't see why will there be oversupply.

    But 1 thing I am sure, don't chase blindly. Do your homework, there are still units with potential. As long as you don't overpaid your unit compared with the rest of the owners, you are safe.
    Wow, so bullish How many properties do you have on hand? Do you want more and buy mine? I have 2 units in prime districts for sale. While my yield now is excellent, I'm not confident I will be able to get the same high yield, unlike you. Thus I'm quite keen to sell, would you be interested?

  28. #328
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    I always believe that the most accurate future indicator (6-12 months) is the market itself. If you look at the share price of CityDev, it peaked at close to $17 in mid 2008 when private residential index shot up to 180, bottomed at $5 1Q 2009 when private residential index down to 139. Basically at $5, the stock market already priced in another 20-30% downside of private residential index (probably down to 100/110) because it is the collective expectation of all market participants that at least another major bank will fail in the US after Lehman. However, the turning point came when the 2 most vulnerable banks, Citibank/BAC managed to report profit for the 1st quarter 2009 and inventory level reached lowest in the last 80 years of US history. Since failure of another US bank looked unlikely and inventory level going up, hot money sitting on the sidelines decided to bet on a recover in early 2010 and started to bid up prices all over the world then herd mentality follows. And today, CityDev is at $9, this has priced in the expecation of IR and expecatation about US recovery/China's growth. Basically, the market is betting that bottom is over and an improvement of property business in early 2010. Going forward, it is extremely important to see whether S&P500 can break its resistance at 946 to increase its gap with the 200 day support line at 926. If that is going to happen, it just means that underlying fundamentals are actually improving rapidly to justify the current high market expectation. Obviously, buying into stock market/property now at high prices is risky until market starts another bullish move.
    You said it! The market is betting! Like all things Singapore, there is always dry-run. And before the opening of the 2 casino, people are already betting on properties. Betting my friends, betting. People are buying properties not based on fundamentals. Well done!

  29. #329
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    Why aren't you as bullish as jitkiat? You have 2 good reasons to be bullish
    I'm a potential buyer.

  30. #330
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    Quote Originally Posted by HP65
    You said it! The market is betting! Like all things Singapore, there is always dry-run. And before the opening of the 2 casino, people are already betting on properties. Betting my friends, betting. People are buying properties not based on fundamentals. Well done!
    My friend, what is wrong with betting with calculated risk? Isn't doing business a betting as well? SG government bets big on genetic research ... now casino. Even you choose to hold all your money in SGD at 0.X% interest, it is still a form of betting

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