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Thread: Property market sentiments?

  1. #1
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    Default Property market sentiments?

    i think market sentiments in the property market is slightly bullish rite now (unlucky for me as i am a potential buyer), however i do not think that this is sustainable... currently in a standoff with a seller with my offer slightly below valuation .. owner asking cov ..

    what are your views?

  2. #2
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    I'm in the same boat as you. Seems like sellers and agents (even my own) now all believe the market is moving. I also don't think it's sustainable since there is bound to be more bad news coming later this year. I am a buyer as well...

  3. #3
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    If really bullish, why asset manager dumping 80 units of prime property at one go? esp when they bought when pricing was $1080 psf?

    Not expecting price to increase significantly or expecting price to trend downwards and this is the last chance to offload?

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=7595

  4. #4
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    I guess Ferrell has liquidity needs. As recent as 2 months ago, rumours flying all over about them being in trouble etc, will be forced to sell at 800psf, some say 1000psf, agents tried offering collective cheques at 1200+psf. In the end, its proven that Ferrell has holding power and do not need to forcesell low. On the other hand, they also need to answer to their fund investors and an average of 1500psf vs 1080psf (I believe its lower since they block buy the units even before the 1st launch), they need to take some profits. I am pretty neutral on this. I think its not sustainable over the longer run but short term, there is evident pent up buying in prime areas driving up prices.


    Quote Originally Posted by sabian
    If really bullish, why asset manager dumping 80 units of prime property at one go? esp when they bought when pricing was $1080 psf?

    Not expecting price to increase significantly or expecting price to trend downwards and this is the last chance to offload?

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?t=7595

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by firestarter
    i think market sentiments in the property market is slightly bullish rite now (unlucky for me as i am a potential buyer), however i do not think that this is sustainable... currently in a standoff with a seller with my offer slightly below valuation .. owner asking cov ..

    what are your views?
    cov? HDB ah?

  6. #6
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    There are only 3 possibilities:

    1. Another blackswan event happens within the next 1-2 years, the bears here finally get their dream flats. Possible events include UK defaulting, Swine Flu turning lethal, US dollar crashing ....

    2. PPI move sideways above 140 for 1-2 years, with US enonomy stable with 0.5% to 1% growth, Singapore economy gets a U-shape recovery. I would think that this is the most likely scenario.

    3. To everyone surprise, US housing market rebounds quickly and consumers start spending again, we have V-shape recovery ... unlikely to happen

    I bet new launches will have a lot of 1-2 room flats <900sqft (look at new FCT project near Potong Pasir). Let's see what is the demand like.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by august
    cov? HDB ah?
    err .. you mean not called cov for private property ar ??
    pai seh .. looking to buy first private property .. pang chance la ..

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by firestarter
    i think market sentiments in the property market is slightly bullish rite now (unlucky for me as i am a potential buyer), however i do not think that this is sustainable... currently in a standoff with a seller with my offer slightly below valuation .. owner asking cov ..

    what are your views?

    One thing I can be sure is that in short term, it is pretty bullish right now. If you always look at classify (which I believe you are since you are a potential buyer) you should see an increase in the asking price for majority of the units.

    Buying property is quite a long term commitment, therefore, my advice is that buy it with a purpose and reasons behind it such as location, views, etc.

    Don't buy it for the price although price plays an important factor.

    Once the price is reasonable with potential of capital gain, go for it. By waiting the desired unit to drop by another $50psf could result in you losing your choice unit or the price going up by $50psf. Which is more critical?

    My rationale is provided for those buying for own stay. If you buy for investment, then you will need to look at other sets of rules depending on long or short term.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    There are only 3 possibilities:

    1. Another blackswan event happens within the next 1-2 years, the bears here finally get their dream flats. Possible events include UK defaulting, Swine Flu turning lethal, US dollar crashing ....

    2. PPI move sideways above 140 for 1-2 years, with US enonomy stable with 0.5% to 1% growth, Singapore economy gets a U-shape recovery. I would think that this is the most likely scenario.

    3. To everyone surprise, US housing market rebounds quickly and consumers start spending again, we have V-shape recovery ... unlikely to happen

    I bet new launches will have a lot of 1-2 room flats <900sqft (look at new FCT project near Potong Pasir). Let's see what is the demand like.
    1. is 50/50.

    2. is the present, an L or U shape watever it is called.. price stability for now

    3. is highly unlikely... there's simply no foreseeable new engine of growth

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by bargain hunter
    I guess Ferrell has liquidity needs. As recent as 2 months ago, rumours flying all over about them being in trouble etc, will be forced to sell at 800psf, some say 1000psf, agents tried offering collective cheques at 1200+psf. In the end, its proven that Ferrell has holding power and do not need to forcesell low. On the other hand, they also need to answer to their fund investors and an average of 1500psf vs 1080psf (I believe its lower since they block buy the units even before the 1st launch), they need to take some profits. I am pretty neutral on this. I think its not sustainable over the longer run but short term, there is evident pent up buying in prime areas driving up prices.
    I guess if I was in their shoes, trying to improve cashflow, I'd dump assets that are either not going to give me the returns or in danger of going down compared to other assets in my portfolio.

    No way will I release assets that have better prospects.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    2. PPI move sideways above 140 for 1-2 years, with US enonomy stable with 0.5% to 1% growth, Singapore economy gets a U-shape recovery. I would think that this is the most likely scenario.
    Sticking to this one. Just like the period after 2000.

    Slow grind to nowhere for a couple of years and then crawling upwards for another couple of years before the healing is done.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by sabian
    I guess if I was in their shoes, trying to improve cashflow, I'd dump assets that are either not going to give me the returns or in danger of going down compared to other assets in my portfolio.

    No way will I release assets that have better prospects.
    They bought RG on leverage i believe. Recapitalization was probably necessary to balance against fund redemptions which i'm sure happened. Today's rental returns cannot justify holding on to them, unlike REITs, whose rentals were negotiated before the crisis and are in effect for 2-3 years.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    They bought RG on leverage i believe. Recapitalization was probably necessary to balance against fund redemptions which i'm sure happened. Today's rental returns cannot justify holding on to them, unlike REITs, whose rentals were negotiated before the crisis and are in effect for 2-3 years.
    i agree ... the rental return for RG is just not good ...

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by august
    1. is 50/50.

    2. is the present, an L or U shape watever it is called.. price stability for now

    3. is highly unlikely... there's simply no foreseeable new engine of growth
    Wah, blackswan event is 50% chance like that I better exit everything and buy gold liao

  15. #15
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    who is still renting with all the economic mess that is going on
    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i agree ... the rental return for RG is just not good ...

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by ipoh72
    who is still renting with all the economic mess that is going on
    True. But there are still people buying property and chasing prices. I don't understand either!


  17. #17
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    Attached PPI technical chart from 1960-present, help to explain why 140 is strong support point. Note people who dared to buy at 4Q1998 after the great bubble burst will make $$$ even with 3 blackswan events (2002 NASDAQ crash, 2003 SARS, 2008 bank crisis). Of course then the bears will say 4Q1998 very cheap ... well 1992 is even cheaper.
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by jitkiat; 25-05-09 at 13:50.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by x11
    True. But there are still people buying property and chasing prices. I don't understand either!

    This is post from another forum, I just quoted him:

    by the way, was thinking about all this talk of 10% GDP contraction...

    in my opinion, not too worried about a 10% contraction as long as it does not happen for more than 2 yrs in a row.

    Look at the last 4 years:

    2005 - 8.1%
    2006 - 6.4%
    2007 - 7.9%
    2008 - 7.5%

    So, if 2004 was a base 100, then we entered 2009 at a level of 133.

    Even a 10% drop still puts us at 120 (ie. much higher than 2004 levels).

    We would have to drop 10% for 3 years in a row to put the economy as bad as it was during SARS...

    Even a 10% drop, followed by 3 years in a row of 5% drop....still better than levels after SARS.

    This is why people believe Singapore will emerge faster and better than most countries once a turnaround happens...

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by x11
    True. But there are still people buying property and chasing prices. I don't understand either!

    You are not alone don't understand. What can we do ? Bank willing to loan, buyer willing to buy and no one willing to save FD. In term of normal Singaporean affordibility to buy a condo is considering high. In other words the condo price in Singapore still considered "cheap" now. More than 20% of population can very much afford to buy. Don't underestimate high educated double(husban and wife) income family.
    2K-3K monthly installment just a very small percentage of their total income.

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by ipoh72
    who is still renting with all the economic mess that is going on
    I was just talkin to this american guy at work currently renting a condo near river valley... His lease just ended last mth and the owner renewed the lease for another 2 yrs for a 2 bedroom condo at $3500 / mth....

    Previously the lease was $6000/mth for 1 year.... thats a discount of $2500 from the previous price....thats more than 40% drop in rental...

    So yeah, ppl are still renting.. just at a much lower price...

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by x11
    True. But there are still people buying property and chasing prices. I don't understand either!

    upgraders and those who buy for own stay lor ...

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by Begbie
    I was just talkin to this american guy at work currently renting a condo near river valley... His lease just ended last mth and the owner renewed the lease for another 2 yrs for a 2 bedroom condo at $3500 / mth....

    Previously the lease was $6000/mth for 1 year.... thats a discount of $2500 from the previous price....thats more than 40% drop in rental...

    So yeah, ppl are still renting.. just at a much lower price...
    aiya

    you should have told him to check around .. i paid 3.3k for 3 bedroom ...

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    aiya

    you should have told him to check around .. i paid 3.3k for 3 bedroom ...

    But location leh? is it equivalent..? hehe... but 3.3 k for 3 bedroom if close to city fringe..very good deal leh..

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by firestarter
    i think market sentiments in the property market is slightly bullish rite now (unlucky for me as i am a potential buyer), however i do not think that this is sustainable... currently in a standoff with a seller with my offer slightly below valuation .. owner asking cov ..

    what are your views?
    Actually my views is it will stay in this manner for a while. But no "unchange" vote in the poll...

    And putting aside all indexs, bond, forex, etc, going straight to the feel on property, my humble point is; while it could be difficult to fall to 2005 slump price, it is also quite an uphill task to see 2007 peak. You may think this is as good as not saying but then if you look at this in this manner, then why the hurry to grab a property? Especially those yet to TOP, also cannot stay or rent if you buy now.

    Good scenerio don't need to say so for bad scenerio;
    Buy and it go down you suay, cause already incur upfront capital outlay. Have to wait..
    Dont buy and it go up, capital unexpended still not recognise as debt or expenditure yet, so well, a bit unlucky but can still fight another day another place.

    The following is just pure my own opinion/manner on property and a bit out of topic.

    Maybe I look at property solely on dollar and cent fundamental. I look at it as a house not a home, a business tool and not an office. Give me any condo, office or light factory so long it cheap and within my reach I buy. Too much uncertainies/discrepancies hovering around how good amenties/location should warrant a rental but if you could rent cheap, ppl will come.

    And for Location? Buy shenton can also lost $. Amenities? Higher premium = higher outlay. Tenure? Can kill you 2 ways for both LH/FH. Home? Prerequisitie is to get a house 1st, never trust a house could be your ultimate home untill one dwell in. Even so, things change.

    I only trust timing. But then thats me. Anyone who can afford comfortably for his/her fancy, I would said just go ahead since you live only once and don't bother so much about the movement of property.

    But for those can or must wait, I mean.. whats the hurry?

  25. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by apple3
    Actually my views is it will stay in this manner for a while. But no "unchange" vote in the poll...

    And putting aside all indexs, bond, forex, etc, going straight to the feel on property, my humble point is; while it could be difficult to fall to 2005 slump price, it is also quite an uphill task to see 2007 peak. You may think this is as good as not saying but then if you look at this in this manner, then why the hurry to grab a property? Especially those yet to TOP, also cannot stay or rent if you buy now.

    Good scenerio don't need to say so for bad scenerio;
    Buy and it go down you suay, cause already incur upfront capital outlay. Have to wait..
    Dont buy and it go up, capital unexpended still not recognise as debt or expenditure yet, so well, a bit unlucky but can still fight another day another place.

    The following is just pure my own opinion/manner on property and a bit out of topic.

    Maybe I look at property solely on dollar and cent fundamental. I look at it as a house not a home, a business tool and not an office. Give me any condo, office or light factory so long it cheap and within my reach I buy. Too much uncertainies/discrepancies hovering around how good amenties/location should warrant a rental but if you could rent cheap, ppl will come.

    And for Location? Buy shenton can also lost $. Amenities? Higher premium = higher outlay. Tenure? Can kill you 2 ways for both LH/FH. Home? Prerequisitie is to get a house 1st, never trust a house could be your ultimate home untill one dwell in. Even so, things change.

    I only trust timing. But then thats me. Anyone who can afford comfortably for his/her fancy, I would said just go ahead since you live only once and don't bother so much about the movement of property.

    But for those can or must wait, I mean.. whats the hurry?
    apple3 does live up to his fame for balanced views although sometimes he can be punishing for the bulls

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    Quote Originally Posted by Begbie
    But location leh? is it equivalent..? hehe... but 3.3 k for 3 bedroom if close to city fringe..very good deal leh..
    i can walk to great world city ... valley point ...

    which lane/ road is he at ?

  27. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    apple3 does live up to his fame for balanced views although sometimes he can be punishing for the bulls
    I take it as a compliment. Thank you.

    I saw your LUV possibilities, on the least there is still a L surfacing nowsaday huh?

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i can walk to great world city ... valley point ...

    which lane/ road is he at ?
    He also never tell me, but close enough to great world city too i think... coz he ever walk to Velvet underground before when we had some drinks there... Nm..tmw at work i ask him..heh...

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by apple3
    Actually my views is it will stay in this manner for a while. But no "unchange" vote in the poll...

    The following is just pure my own opinion/manner on property and a bit out of topic.

    Maybe I look at property solely on dollar and cent fundamental. I look at it as a house not a home, a business tool and not an office. Give me any condo, office or light factory so long it cheap and within my reach I buy. Too much uncertainies/discrepancies hovering around how good amenties/location should warrant a rental but if you could rent cheap, ppl will come.

    And for Location? Buy shenton can also lost $. Amenities? Higher premium = higher outlay. Tenure? Can kill you 2 ways for both LH/FH. Home? Prerequisitie is to get a house 1st, never trust a house could be your ultimate home untill one dwell in. Even so, things change.

    I only trust timing. But then thats me. Anyone who can afford comfortably for his/her fancy, I would said just go ahead since you live only once and don't bother so much about the movement of property.

    But for those can or must wait, I mean.. whats the hurry?
    I like your thoughts... as it is in line with my purchase profile..well said buddy..

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by apple3
    why the hurry to grab a property? Especially those yet to TOP, also cannot stay or rent if you buy now.
    Just taking Mi Casa and The Arte as an example, I really cannot understand why there was a mad rush to snap up these properties??

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