One Amber (D15, 999 years, UIC/Singland)

[wreckwrx]

I don't have the exact answer to your question but here is what i feel:

I think there are a lot of people out there that firmly believes asset inflation is on the cards after seeing how the various governments in the world are throwing money to try solve the current economic crissis... You don't need a PhD in econs to come to draw that conclusion.... But you do need to be rocket scientist to determine exactly when this will happen.

Given that the masses aren't rocket scientist and hence is not able to predict the exact date and time where asset inflation will kick in, the current mentality is simply "buy now or we will never ever have the chance to buy once inflation kicks in".... This may be a fallacy but if enough people think the same way, it might just become a self-fulfiling prophecy, which to a certain extent is what is happening now...

The above is simply my two - ....

I don't understand.... MOH already turned to Orange Alert, why STI still go up to 2000 today? with the swine flu, ppl got more confidence???

You may notice that this weekend classfied One Amber already asking 9xx psf liao....8xxpsf consider good buy liao??? 7xxpsf become dream price?

So property market bottom already? Any one can advise?

[august]

interest rates may inevitably rise if inflation does shoot up.. then they will be caught..

[jitkiat]

I don't understand.... MOH already turned to Orange Alert, why STI still go up to 2000 today? with the swine flu, ppl got more confidence???

You may notice that this weekend classfied One Amber already asking 9xx psf liao....8xxpsf consider good buy liao??? 7xxpsf become dream price?

So property market bottom already? Any one can advise?

See attached chart ... 140 is a good point to enter if you believe the long term support trendline will hold. In general, 140 is at the same level as prices at 2Q 2000 as well as 4Q 2006/1Q 2007. The long term support trendline basically refects the per capita income growth as well as inflation.

[East Lover]

See attached chart ... 140 is a good point to enter if you believe the long term support trendline will hold. In general, 140 is at the same level as prices at 2Q 2000 as well as 4Q 2006/1Q 2007. The long term support trendline basically refects the per capita income growth as well as inflation.

what's the current index now? 140 already? where to check?

[jitkiat]

what's the current index now? 140 already? where to check?

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2009/pr09-17a7.pdf

[proud owner]

http://www.ura.gov.sg/pr/graphics/2009/pr09-17a7.pdf

does this chart apply to every district ? or just east coast or OA in particular ?

why then only OA prices going up ? why other area/ district remain subdued ?

[Property_Owner]

Lucky I bought it before the price went up

[jitkiat]

does this chart apply to every district ? or just east coast or OA in particular ?

why then only OA prices going up ? why other area/ district remain subdued ?

I think URA has a formula, mixing high-end (Core Region), mid-end (RCR) and low end (OCR) to form the index. The problem is high-end condos are bugged by oversupply (those who TOP in 2009/2010 mostly highend condos) as well as bank valuation concerns (tats why developers need to meet valuers to discuss hah hah). My best guess for Q2-2009 is that the high end condos will drop a bit (< 5%) while mid-end and mass market condos will actually see a bit of upside. So overall, the Q2 2009 index might be moving sideways i.e. between 139-145 for example. OF course, the best indicator is still the property stock itself. Judging from performance of CityDev in last 2 days ... it is pretty good sign.

[repanse71]

There's lots of liquidity in the market, pent-up demand for investment.

Likewise, I think my dream house will soon beyond my reach :-(

I don't understand.... MOH already turned to Orange Alert, why STI still go up to 2000 today? with the swine flu, ppl got more confidence???

You may notice that this weekend classfied One Amber already asking 9xx psf liao....8xxpsf consider good buy liao??? 7xxpsf become dream price?

So property market bottom already? Any one can advise?

[proud owner]

There's lots of liquidity in the market, pent-up demand for investment.

Likewise, I think my dream house will soon beyond my reach :-(

and which project is that ?

[VIPCLUB2004]

I think most people here have their own house, whether is it HDB or condo or landed, so actually no need so hurry, step by step, don't over stretch.... Basically I don't believe that property price will rise as what happened in early 1990s, the goldern time has gone, gone just means gone, we need be realistic and look for property which can generate positive cash flow, which can support our daily life, more important than just dreaming for capital gain.... If for capital gain, stock market is better than property, because a lot of cost in property buy & sale, agent fee, tax, legal fee, interests, maintainence fee, so if the cash flow is negative, you will not likely to make any money if the property price rise less than 20% for the next a few years, better buy shares If for own stay, whether it is worth for us to spend half million more or two time $$ to get the same space as HDB, recent HDB is really not bad (poor people's mindset)

[blackswan]

Believe that Lehman Brothers went down on 15th Sept 08. So its only about 7.5 months since then. Wonder why so many people calling for bull market. Is it cos we are so condition by the last few recession that's had very short span?

I really can't fathom myself the market going back to early 08 late 07 time. Those are exceptional time where banker leverage like there's no tomorrow and regulation is lacking. Do I expect record M&A activity again, or record LBO again? I will think that its something we tell our next generation a couple of decades down the road.

Of course people will say that during 1929, it took 3 years to recover so this will be the same, but I also think those same people had forgotten to mention that it took the DOW 25 years to regain the peak. Moreover, during that downturn, its the second wave that kill the market, not the first wave.

Lastly, a lot of colleague have been telling me that dun forget that there's a lot of QE and stimulus package, but I tell myself, if these comes at no cost, why the hell wait for so long to implement and Congress have to veto once on the TARP, if money can solve the problem, then run the printing press 24/7 and there will be no problem right?

2 cents worth and have a great week ahead!!!!!!!

[jitkiat]

Believe that Lehman Brothers went down on 15th Sept 08. So its only about 7.5 months since then. Wonder why so many people calling for bull market. Is it cos we are so condition by the last few recession that's had very short span?

I really can't fathom myself the market going back to early 08 late 07 time. Those are exceptional time where banker leverage like there's no tomorrow and regulation is lacking. Do I expect record M&A activity again, or record LBO again? I will think that its something we tell our next generation a couple of decades down the road.

Of course people will say that during 1929, it took 3 years to recover so this will be the same, but I also think those same people had forgotten to mention that it took the DOW 25 years to regain the peak. Moreover, during that downturn, its the second wave that kill the market, not the first wave.

Lastly, a lot of colleague have been telling me that dun forget that there's a lot of QE and stimulus package, but I tell myself, if these comes at no cost, why the hell wait for so long to implement and Congress have to veto once on the TARP, if money can solve the problem, then run the printing press 24/7 and there will be no problem right?

2 cents worth and have a great week ahead!!!!!!!

True, US may not regain its peak for many years to come but it is unlikely that US consumerism behaviour will change just bcos of this crisis (look at Apple stock price u get what I mean) so export to US may recover quite soon.

And then expected inflation will be very high for the next few years:

1. Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers all predicting a devaluation of USD in the near future due to this excessive printing of money to rescue the banks. Holding cash is a sure no-no in the next few years.

2. China/India continue to grow at a fast pace and bull markets over there have just started again, enough to consume most commodities, rice/sugar/coffee/oil are going up .. again translates to inflation ... and next time guess what, the buyers of your properties will be rich Chinese, Indian hoping to park their $$$ in a safe haven like Singapore

Attached STI diagram indicating that resistance at 1,950 is broken with 3 days consecutive expanded volume. The China A Shares is even more bullish.

[blackswan]

Everyone seems to be pinning their hope on China.....even today Bloomberg opinion article also mention that there's tons of foreign banker congregating at Bali for the Asean + 3 conference. But had always find it hard to fully believe the economy statistics in China. Is it possible to turn a major exporting junket the size of China into a domestic driven economy in 1Q or 2Q with just the 586bn of stimulus? Very unlikely.

Anyway, since charts are mention, the more I look at it, the forever increasing gap in the candlestick charts is undoubtedly a sign for concern.

Ha ha, anyway, it might just me the bearish side of me that's looking at things. Its been a wonderful forum for me to learn from a lot of bros and sis.

[DW]

True, US may not regain its peak for many years to come but it is unlikely that US consumerism behaviour will change just bcos of this crisis (look at Apple stock price u get what I mean) so export to US may recover quite soon.

And then expected inflation will be very high for the next few years:

1. Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers all predicting a devaluation of USD in the near future due to this excessive printing of money to rescue the banks. Holding cash is a sure no-no in the next few years.

2. China/India continue to grow at a fast pace and bull markets over there have just started again, enough to consume most commodities, rice/sugar/coffee/oil are going up .. again translates to inflation ... and next time guess what, the buyers of your properties will be rich Chinese, Indian hoping to park their $$$ in a safe haven like Singapore

Attached STI diagram indicating that resistance at 1,950 is broken with 3 days consecutive expanded volume. The China A Shares is even more bullish.

I am assuming you are a technical person. The basis of technicals is highly psychological. It aims to track, predict and explains the irrational rationales of market participants, private and institutional investors. Having the index of 1950 resistance broken 3 days consecutively does not mean anything at all. It only means, the market, at this particular point in time, has a certain view and bullish about certain aspects of the development and market. It does not necessarily mean this the ultimate recovery. It may be but even if yes, technicals alone will not be able to tell u that, much less from a 3 day observation.

[Sean.G]

This might be a very simple take on the situation now but what i want to say is

"Why so kan cheong? Price ok then buy lor. Price not ok then dun buy lor. Nobody put a gun to your head to buy wat..."

For ppl buying for own stay, you dun have a home now meh? Have a roof over your head then wait till price meets your expectation or until you earn enough to buy.

For investors...this is not the right climate then just wait lor...

From the last property cycle i can see that interest rate is a very good indicator when the property market is soft. Now rates still going at 2-3%. In 2005 when pty market really in the dumps, bank loan rates were sub 1%. So all indicators point to WAIT IT OUT!

[b&j]

This might be a very simple take on the situation now but what i want to say is

"Why so kan cheong? Price ok then buy lor. Price not ok then dun buy lor. Nobody put a gun to your head to buy wat..."

For ppl buying for own stay, you dun have a home now meh? Have a roof over your head then wait till price meets your expectation or until you earn enough to buy.

For investors...this is not the right climate then just wait lor...

From the last property cycle i can see that interest rate is a very good indicator when the property market is soft. Now rates still going at 2-3%. In 2005 when pty market really in the dumps, bank loan rates were sub 1%. So all indicators point to WAIT IT OUT!

Ya. We should all wait. Once no one buys, pricing will naturally drops...

[East Lover]

Ya. We should all wait. Once no one buys, pricing will naturally drops...

Market is crazy now.

My agent told me that Esta 3+study sold 1.25 mil in Jan, another buyer wanted to buy same type unit, guess what, the 1.25 mil offer was rejected on April!

Same thing for One Amber - there is 1259 sqft unit, mid floor, no view, before tried 1 mil, rejected, now owner is asking 1.1 mil

胃口越来越大了！

[kalumder]

Market is crazy now.

My agent told me that Esta 3+study sold 1.25 mil in Jan, another buyer wanted to buy same type unit, guess what, the 1.25 mil offer was rejected on April!

Same thing for One Amber - there is 1259 sqft unit, mid floor, no view, before tried 1 mil, rejected, now owner is asking 1.1 mil

胃口越来越大了!

be patient. Rental is now crashing in D15. You can now get a high floor 1200sf appartment at SeaView for 4000$ asking.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...t-the-sea-view

A couple weeks ago you could not even get a studio in D15 for 4000$. Lets wait and see how many people bought OA for rental income, and lets see how low they have to go to get tenants. Since prices are dropping further. Some will probably have to offload their condo in 6-12 months time if they cant get the rental income they need.

The current bull run in the property market (selling units) is not based on any fundamentals.

[jitkiat]

be patient. Rental is now crashing in D15. You can now get a high floor 1200sf appartment at SeaView for 4000$ asking.
http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...t-the-sea-view

A couple weeks ago you could not even get a studio in D15 for 4000$. Lets wait and see how many people bought OA for rental income, and lets see how low they have to go to get tenants. Since prices are dropping further. Some will probably have to offload their condo in 6-12 months time if they cant get the rental income they need.

The current bull run in the property market (selling units) is not based on any fundamentals.

But there is a conflicting signal in stock market, STI has broken major resistance at 1,950 and everyday is going up like crazy. Property stocks are all recovering as well. It will be hard to get people to sell at bargain price if STI is going up everyday.

[blackswan]

In the short term, stock market movement is just redomn walk.
Aren't stock market rallying up like no tomorrow during Oct 07 and March 00 before following by spectacular crush???
Human memory is really short.......

[proud owner]

But there is a conflicting signal in stock market, STI has broken major resistance at 1,950 and everyday is going up like crazy. Property stocks are all recovering as well. It will be hard to get people to sell at bargain price if STI is going up everyday.

are you sure cannot find a studio for rent at 4k ??

walau river valley studio rental 3 k

[jitkiat]

In the short term, stock market movement is just redomn walk.
Aren't stock market rallying up like no tomorrow during Oct 07 and March 00 before following by spectacular crush???
Human memory is really short.......

I disagree that major movement of stock market is just random walk. A major break of major resistance typically indicates a major turn in sentiment and inflow of funds. STI is already above its 200 day moving average, which is a classic divider between bull and bear. I am not saying that STI will go back to 3,600 in 6 months but one thing for sure, the worst is over barring any unforeseen circumstances like Swine Flu kills millions.

Stock market crash in end 2007 is not Singapore's fault. That is bcos there is a blackswan event i.e. the crash of housing market in the US followed by crash of the banks in the US.

[Property_Owner]

Another thing. Monitor oil price. You will see.

[blackswan]

I disagree that major movement of stock market is just random walk. A major break of major resistance typically indicates a major turn in sentiment and inflow of funds. STI is already above its 200 day moving average, which is a classic divider between bull and bear. I am not saying that STI will go back to 3,600 in 6 months but one thing for sure, the worst is over barring any unforeseen circumstances like Swine Flu kills millions.

Stock market crash in end 2007 is not Singapore's fault. That is bcos there is a blackswan event i.e. the crash of housing market in the US followed by crash of the banks in the US.

That's always the case right? When mkt move up, its due to the worst is over, 'green shoots", "glimmer of hopes". When things go down, the excuse is its a blackswan (BS) event, nobody expects it (so why do we have risk manager and why pay CEO so high a pay when they can't buffer for these events? And it is really the unforeseeable? Think again.).

But the important point is that when you have a BS, your port went down by 50% or more, yet when there is no BS, and when market is move up, it takes a long time to recover to the high watermark.

[jitkiat]

That's always the case right? When mkt move up, its due to the worst is over, 'green shoots", "glimmer of hopes". When things go down, the excuse is its a blackswan (BS) event, nobody expects it (so why do we have risk manager and why pay CEO so high a pay when they can't buffer for these events? And it is really the unforeseeable? Think again.).

But the important point is that when you have a BS, your port went down by 50% or more, yet when there is no BS, and when market is move up, it takes a long time to recover to the high watermark.

A risk manager will recommend you to reduce risk taking before the bubble bursts and increase risk taking when bottom is confirmed. A risk manager, either use fundamental or technical analysis or a mixture of two. Your analysis is true from a fundamental angle. Right now, the stock market momentum from a technical perspective seems to defy fundamental. Sooner or later, technical and fundamental must match. It is either the buying momentum now is just funds fearing missing the boat or there is some really good news coming out soon ... we shall see whether the market can clear the next resistance at 2,400.

[kalumder]

But there is a conflicting signal in stock market, STI has broken major resistance at 1,950 and everyday is going up like crazy. Property stocks are all recovering as well. It will be hard to get people to sell at bargain price if STI is going up everyday.

There is no correlation between stock market and property.

[East Lover]

But there is a conflicting signal in stock market, STI has broken major resistance at 1,950 and everyday is going up like crazy. Property stocks are all recovering as well. It will be hard to get people to sell at bargain price if STI is going up everyday.

Agreed. I'm monitering some properties on propertyguru, the newly updated units are much higher than the april post. for example if the 3 bedder in D18 is asking 699K on april, now 2 bedder is asking 688K, and 3 bedder is asking 780K only 2 weeks difference oh.

That's what i feel also "It will be hard to get people to sell at bargain price if STI is going up everyday"

[rk1]

A risk manager will recommend you to reduce risk taking before the bubble bursts and increase risk taking when bottom is confirmed. A risk manager, either use fundamental or technical analysis or a mixture of two. Your analysis is true from a fundamental angle. Right now, the stock market momentum from a technical perspective seems to defy fundamental. Sooner or later, technical and fundamental must match. It is either the buying momentum now is just funds fearing missing the boat or there is some really good news coming out soon ... we shall see whether the market can clear the next resistance at 2,400.

Do you believe that 2000+ pts for STI is unrealistically high? Think again. I would say that 2000-2500 is a very fair and conservative level for STI. Issue is that 1500 pts was a ridiculous unsustainably low point. Just like when STI crashed to 800 during currency crisis. Ridiculous and unsustainable levels.

[blackswan]

Do you believe that 2000+ pts for STI is unrealistically high? Think again. I would say that 2000-2500 is a very fair and conservative level for STI. Issue is that 1500 pts was a ridiculous unsustainably low point. Just like when STI crashed to 800 during currency crisis. Ridiculous and unsustainable levels.

Just wonder why is it ridiculous level??? An reason? Just because it drop more than 50% from peak that's why its ridiculous?

Than we can also see that Nikkei even when its at 6000+ level, the PE is still at 30+ times!!!!. That, is ridiculous.