One Amber (D15, 999 years, UIC/Singland)

[firec]

I'm willing to postpone my happiness (living in a condo) and bet that prices must come down.

Despite what agents say (they have an agenda), it's well known that property lags the stock market.

It's simply impossible to have the central regions crashing and yet have parkway area going up. Even the "resilient" HDB resale market is also slowing.

With more retrenchments, more political uncertainty around the region, more graduates jobless, let the agents and sellers dream on.

I agree with a comment posted at http://www.salary.sg/2008/property-m.../#comment-3153

"Basically there is no reason to buy at current prices because when you weigh the pros and cons, you will realise that there is zero chance of prices appreicating and 100% chance of prices falling. Fall by how much is the question? With the extent of the global crisis, STI having fallen by 60%, supply from DPS buyers, pullback of expats, I would say at least 20%, realistically 40%
In any case, why buy now when ther is no upside and lots of downside."

I'll continue to wait. But I'll also consider other projects.

[sumo22]

Hi Firec,
I agree with you 100% & hence will be adopting the PATIENCE strategy.

But I'm also worried if hyperinflation might drive up property prices? That is, the value of cash drops while asset prices go up. Will this happen?

[East Lover]

agree... and i think all buyers should give all those agent cheque base on $750psf and stand-off for desparate seller to walk into the ditch... if anyone go in higher then let them be the "Chai Tao"... sounds like a plan ?

For I still think there are too many "agents" at the forum and "physcial agents" out there for Amber area whom are talking the price up. Its going to drop 10% to 20% more... from various info and reports out there.

Agreed! we - potential buyers should union together, to say big NO to those agents!

I tried other 2 agents yesterday - one called me immediately, but saying latest offer is already 860psf, owner is still waiting for higher offer!

And another one no response at all!!! I got his mobile in property guru, it seems majority of OA is under him. if you seach OA in property guru, sort the list by psf, the top 5 are all his units. so i decided to give a try, who knows he does NOT response at all! like that also can hah! isn't it his rice bowl?

[East Lover]

Hi Firec,
I agree with you 100% & hence will be adopting the PATIENCE strategy.

But I'm also worried if hyperinflation might drive up property prices? That is, the value of cash drops while asset prices go up. Will this happen?

Worse comes to worst, don't buy loh. you still can use your cash to buy share which is much more cheaper now, when market up, or inflation up, your stock value also go up.

If we commit today, sure will regret tomorrow. Let those silly proud agents and greedy owners wait and dream ba!

[b&j]

Hi b&j,

Since you have been getting info from agents, can tell me what is the entry level offer at OA now? 800? 850?

And do you have any idea who are the people buying into Oa at 900+psf? Rich indonesians or rich china ppl or expats?

Again it depends on which stack. If you are looking at the premium, be prepared for 9xx psf cheque. For stacks which are less popular, 8xx psf, can try.

[jc]

A few agents told me its stack 21, 27, 01 & 07 are premium.

They are all units with "chipped corners". Stack 21 & 27 would be baking in the afternoon sun. May i understand why are they premium? Is it becos they are pool facing?

[b&j]

They are all units with "chipped corners". Stack 21 & 27 would be baking in the afternoon sun. May i understand why are they premium? Is it becos they are pool facing?

They are not affected by the noon sun if you look at e site plan properly. I went down to the actual site in e noon to check on e west sun. The sun is blocked by e other blocks. Therefore Stack 21 & 27 are not affected by e noon sun.

[august]

They are not affected by the noon sun if you look at e site plan properly. I went down to the actual site in e noon to check on e west sun. The sun is blocked by e other blocks. Therefore Stack 21 & 27 are not affected by e noon sun.

do u mean afternoon sun, instead of noon sun?
Because at noon the sun is directly above everyone... only in the afternoon the sun is lower at the west so west-facing units kena.

[b&j]

do u mean afternoon sun, instead of noon sun?
Because at noon the sun is directly above everyone... only in the afternoon the sun is lower at the west so west-facing units kena.

Haha! My english v lousy. Thought afternoon means noon.....oops.....
August you are right!!

[jc]

They are not affected by the noon sun if you look at e site plan properly. I went down to the actual site in e noon to check on e west sun. The sun is blocked by e other blocks. Therefore Stack 21 & 27 are not affected by e noon sun.

Did u actually physically gone into the unit at Stack 21 & 27?

[focus]

The bull in the equity market seems to be waking up..
So if you mentioned 6 mths..
I would think you have to buy within this 6 months.

[firec]

I saw an ad in ST classifieds 2 days ago selling a 1442sq OA unit for 800psf. Called the agent yesterday, and she said its sold. Does anyone which unit and the actual psf?

BTW,

The bull in the equity market seems to be waking up...

I think the keyword in your message is "seems". No one knows for sure whether the stock markets have bottomed. In fact just yesterday, PM has indicated Singapore growth may yet again be revised downwards, implying a worse than -5% GDP growth for 2009.

And the NTUC minister hinted more job losses are to come.

EVen if equities recover, no one knows for sure whether its v-shape, L-shape or "inverted square-root".

Lastly, no one knows property lags by how long. Remember: It boomed again only after 8-9 years since the heavy crash post-Asian Financial Crisis.

Nonetheless, it's your money and it's how you see it. Again, I'm willing to postpone my condo happiness though I can easily afford at today's prices. But I'm accumulating blue chips though... a bit contradicting, but it's how I see it.

[firec]

My little project work over Easter.

Two trendlines are included, one for buyers and one for sellers!



(Data from URA.)

[East Lover]

My little project work over Easter.

Two trendlines are included, one for buyers and one for sellers!



(Data from URA.)

Good job! one picture than thousand words!
I guess the red line representing buyers' offer price? how did you get it?

[Property_Owner]

Good job! one picture than thousand words!
I guess the red line representing buyers' offer price? how did you get it?

East Lover, you still in this thread? Thought you went to buy RiverGate already?

[b&j]

East Lover, you still in this thread? Thought you went to buy RiverGate already?

I went down to RiverGate to have a look last week. The place is quite inaccessible you want to take public transport.

[East Lover]

East Lover, you still in this thread? Thought you went to buy RiverGate already?

Haha, haven't made up mind yet
I'm still loving East, just seems the "East" does not love me that much

I'm busying in house viewing, from east to central. Give me 6 mth, I will let you know whether I will still be East Lover or RV Lover

[firec]

Good job! one picture than thousand words!
I guess the red line representing buyers' offer price? how did you get it?

Thanks .

The red and blue lines are just standard Excel-automated "trendlines". There are a few types of trendlines to choose. I selected "polynomial order 2 and 3" because I like their shapes!

[East Lover]

Thanks .

The red and blue lines are just standard Excel-automated "trendlines". There are a few types of trendlines to choose. I selected "polynomial order 2 and 3" because I like their shapes!

oh, not the buyers' price? so explain a bit deeper on the trend study? sorry i'm such a slow east lover

[firec]

oh, not the buyers' price? so explain a bit deeper on the trend study? sorry i'm such a slow east lover

You see - I plotted the psf prices as dots in the graph against time. With a few clicks of the mouse, Excel can add the trend lines (think: best fitted curves) using several standard techniques.

In other words, the red/blue line is simply a best-fit curve that tracks the psf prices. It's called a trend line because it sort of tries to predict the trend.

Another analogy: remember the least squares regression line we learn in school? That was a straight line that best fits a set of given points. Here, the red/blue lines are curves rather than straight lines.

[firec]

According to BT, OA is now transacting at an average of 806psf. That means we can offer below 800psf and still get a good chance that it'll be accepted.

To all agents: Show the BT article to your sellers. Your job is to push down their asking prices and push up our offer prices. Only then, you'll get your commissions.

[nochoice]

According to BT, OA is now transacting at an average of 806psf. That means we can offer below 800psf and still get a good chance that it'll be accepted.

To all agents: Show the BT article to your sellers. Your job is to push down their asking prices and push up our offer prices. Only then, you'll get your commissions.

Jus offer a high floor studio unit for a price of slightly more than $1k psf and been rejected by the seller.
guess what, I just find out from the banker that the valuation for that unit is only $900 psf. Luckily the seller rejected, if not I have to forfeit my deposits liao...

[proud owner]

Jus offer a high floor studio unit for a price of slightly more than $1k psf and been rejected by the seller.
guess what, I just find out from the banker that the valuation for that unit is only $900 psf. Luckily the seller rejected, if not I have to forfeit my deposits liao...

thats a real problem .. i have friends whos selling his unit else wehere... to date have at least 3 buyers but all got valuation much lower ... so deal couldnt go thru ...

not that theres no buyer ... seems banks not pro-business...

whats the point of showing a 'out of market' valuation ? i am happier if bank tells me : we are not keen on THAT project " then to show a 'off' valuation

[Property_Owner]

Jus offer a high floor studio unit for a price of slightly more than $1k psf and been rejected by the seller.
guess what, I just find out from the banker that the valuation for that unit is only $900 psf. Luckily the seller rejected, if not I have to forfeit my deposits liao...

Lucky for you. How come you didn't check the valuation before you offer? 1000psf? How come so high?

[nochoice]

Lucky for you. How come you didn't check the valuation before you offer? 1000psf? How come so high?

Jus checked 1 month ago, most bank can match the valuation of $1k psf for studio, but dont know why this week the valuation suddenly drop so much?
$1k psf is not high..... wait till you know that all studio seller are asking more than $1k in OA....
Now the problem is about this big gap... on selling price and bank valuation, buyer have to fork out extra $60k if they want to buy a unit there.....

[b&j]

Jus checked 1 month ago, most bank can match the valuation of $1k psf for studio, but dont know why this week the valuation suddenly drop so much?
$1k psf is not high..... wait till you know that all studio seller are asking more than $1k in OA....
Now the problem is about this big gap... on selling price and bank valuation, buyer have to fork out extra $60k if they want to buy a unit there.....

I guess those buying at OA now are cash rich. They are able to fork out e extra $$ needed.

[firec]

Jus checked 1 month ago, most bank can match the valuation of $1k psf for studio, but dont know why this week the valuation suddenly drop so much?

Because the banks know about the recent transactions. To them, transaction prices are likely to go lower, contrary to what agents/sellers claim.

If sellers think prices will go higher, I suggest they hold their units and sell later. Why sell now?

[latour]

Again it depends on which stack. If you are looking at the premium, be prepared for 9xx psf cheque. For stacks which are less popular, 8xx psf, can try.

Which stacks and levels you referrin to ?

[Property_Owner]

Jus checked 1 month ago, most bank can match the valuation of $1k psf for studio, but dont know why this week the valuation suddenly drop so much?
$1k psf is not high..... wait till you know that all studio seller are asking more than $1k in OA....
Now the problem is about this big gap... on selling price and bank valuation, buyer have to fork out extra $60k if they want to buy a unit there.....

This is happening around singapore. Not only OA. You know the valuation of ardmore 2 now? Scary

[ppty]

the banks will match valuations if the loan is for 70%
if u ask for 80% and more then they will decline by not matching
the valuations ( an indirect "NO" )