Results 1 to 30 of 30

Thread: Goldman sees S'pore home prices rising in 2010

  1. #1
    Any complaints please PM me
    Join Date
    May 2006
    Posts
    8,129

    Default Goldman sees S'pore home prices rising in 2010

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...32685,00.html?

    Published May 13, 2009

    Goldman sees S'pore home prices rising in 2010

    It reverses earlier forecast of 10% slide next year, upgrades CDL to 'buy'

    By KALPANA RASHIWALA


    (SINGAPORE) Goldman Sachs is now projecting a 5 per cent gain in Singapore private home prices next year, reversing its previous forecast of a 10 per cent fall in 2010. It has also upgraded City Developments, which it terms 'the Singapore residential bellwether', to a 'buy' rating from 'sell' previously.

    'The recent pick-up of transaction volumes in the primary residential market is a harbinger of price stabilisation being just around the corner, in our view,' the US bank said in a report dated May 12.

    It expects the residential property sector to stabilise by end-2009, ahead of the office and retail sectors, which it sees stabilising around the end of next year.

    Goldman Sachs sees the average luxury residential capital value sliding some 38 per cent for the whole of 2009, on top of last year's 36 per cent drop, and the average islandwide 99-year leasehold residential capital value easing 13 per cent in 2009, similar to the 12 per cent fall last year. Much of these price declines have already taken place year to date, and Goldman Sachs sees price stability setting in by year-end.

    The 5 per cent residential price increase projection for 2010 will be supported by expected healthy, above-consensus take-up activity that will gradually draw down on supply.

    'Firmness witnessed in the mass end of the segment is gradually filtering up to the mid-end segments, though investors are still harbouring concerns over sustainability of demand. What may not be so apparent is the relative wealth of HDB owners,' said the report.

    'We expect the pick-up in transaction volumes witnessed over the past three months to continue, driven by HDB upgrader demand in the mass end of the market as affordability has improved,' it added.

    'While we acknowledge that there are still overhangs (eg deferred payment scheme defaults) weighing down on the broader sector, we think the risk/reward trade-off in the Singapore residential market is currently favourable,' the report said.

    With residential cycles tending to be shorter than commercial ones, Goldman Sachs expects commercial property to underperform when recovery takes place eventually. It also continues to be relatively more cautious about the retail and office segments given the challenges that are likely to affect businesses and consumers over the near term.

    'Unlike in residential, where (sales) take-up has been healthy, leasing and transaction activity in the commercial space continues to be weak,' the report noted.

    'On the basis that a residential property recovery is in the works, we turn more constructive on the Singapore developers as we see the residential sector leading the property sector recovery. We think property investors (Reits) mainly exposed to commercial real estate will see trends deteriorating into 2010 and are likely to underperform when the eventual recovery does take place.'

    In addition to upgrading CDL to 'buy', Goldman Sachs has upgraded Wing Tai to 'neutral' from 'sell' and reiterated its 'conviction buy' for CapitaLand for their exposure to the Singapore residential sector. For CapitaLand, it said that maiden profits from The Seafront and Orchard Residences condos expected this year should help shelter the stock from potential writedowns.

    Goldman downgraded CapitaCommercial Trust to 'neutral' from 'buy' and Suntec Reit to 'sell' from 'buy'. It kept its 'sell' rating for Keppel Land, which has substantial exposure to the Singapore office market.

  2. #2
    Newbie
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    46

    Default Here we go...again

    Quote Originally Posted by mr funny
    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...32685,00.html?

    Published May 13, 2009

    Goldman sees S'pore home prices rising in 2010

    It reverses earlier forecast of 10% slide next year, upgrades CDL to 'buy'

    By KALPANA RASHIWALA


    (SINGAPORE) Goldman Sachs is now projecting a 5 per cent gain in Singapore private home prices next year, reversing its previous forecast of a 10 per cent fall in 2010. It has also upgraded City Developments, which it terms 'the Singapore residential bellwether', to a 'buy' rating from 'sell' previously.

    'The recent pick-up of transaction volumes in the primary residential market is a harbinger of price stabilisation being just around the corner, in our view,' the US bank said in a report dated May 12.

    It expects the residential property sector to stabilise by end-2009, ahead of the office and retail sectors, which it sees stabilising around the end of next year.

    Goldman Sachs sees the average luxury residential capital value sliding some 38 per cent for the whole of 2009, on top of last year's 36 per cent drop, and the average islandwide 99-year leasehold residential capital value easing 13 per cent in 2009, similar to the 12 per cent fall last year. Much of these price declines have already taken place year to date, and Goldman Sachs sees price stability setting in by year-end.

    The 5 per cent residential price increase projection for 2010 will be supported by expected healthy, above-consensus take-up activity that will gradually draw down on supply.

    'Firmness witnessed in the mass end of the segment is gradually filtering up to the mid-end segments, though investors are still harbouring concerns over sustainability of demand. What may not be so apparent is the relative wealth of HDB owners,' said the report.

    'We expect the pick-up in transaction volumes witnessed over the past three months to continue, driven by HDB upgrader demand in the mass end of the market as affordability has improved,' it added.

    'While we acknowledge that there are still overhangs (eg deferred payment scheme defaults) weighing down on the broader sector, we think the risk/reward trade-off in the Singapore residential market is currently favourable,' the report said.

    With residential cycles tending to be shorter than commercial ones, Goldman Sachs expects commercial property to underperform when recovery takes place eventually. It also continues to be relatively more cautious about the retail and office segments given the challenges that are likely to affect businesses and consumers over the near term.

    'Unlike in residential, where (sales) take-up has been healthy, leasing and transaction activity in the commercial space continues to be weak,' the report noted.

    'On the basis that a residential property recovery is in the works, we turn more constructive on the Singapore developers as we see the residential sector leading the property sector recovery. We think property investors (Reits) mainly exposed to commercial real estate will see trends deteriorating into 2010 and are likely to underperform when the eventual recovery does take place.'

    In addition to upgrading CDL to 'buy', Goldman Sachs has upgraded Wing Tai to 'neutral' from 'sell' and reiterated its 'conviction buy' for CapitaLand for their exposure to the Singapore residential sector. For CapitaLand, it said that maiden profits from The Seafront and Orchard Residences condos expected this year should help shelter the stock from potential writedowns.

    Goldman downgraded CapitaCommercial Trust to 'neutral' from 'buy' and Suntec Reit to 'sell' from 'buy'. It kept its 'sell' rating for Keppel Land, which has substantial exposure to the Singapore office market.
    What's the point of these forecasts if the 'experts' keep revising it?

  3. #3
    Newbie
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    211

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by dragonred
    What's the point of these forecasts if the 'experts' keep revising it?
    promote
    buy buy buy

  4. #4
    Junior
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    1,069

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by dragonred
    What's the point of these forecasts if the 'experts' keep revising it?
    If these experts are so accurate, they already billionaire, what for they write report for GS. You can analyze, you can predict, ultimately, only the market can prove you correct or wrong. You no need to be expert, just select 3 new highend projects, 3 new mid-end projects, 4 new mass market condo projects, every Sunday afternoon visit the showrooms you will know what is going on in the market. Projects must be big (>200 units) and built by reputable developers to be more representative of the trend.

  5. #5
    Newbie
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    94

    Default

    I wish Goldman Sachs would have defaulted, like Lehmann. Their value to this planet, is even lower than manure. At least you can use manure to fertilize the fields. The mafia has a better influence on society than these bunch of crooks. Why people take these crooks seriously anymore and give them a plattform, is beyond me.

  6. #6
    Senior
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    5,841

    Default

    the guy who wrote that report is probably stuck with a few properties that he bought at a peak....lol

  7. #7
    Senior
    Join Date
    Feb 2009
    Posts
    5,837

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    the guy who wrote that report is probably stuck with a few properties that he bought at a peak....lol
    i think most guys in this this forum .. who actively defend their properties ..are most likely stuck...hehehe

  8. #8
    Newbie
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    41

    Default

    new ones are still selling because banks are matching the prices.

    go to the secondary mkt and it's a totally different story. valuation still below asking price by 10-15% at least. highly unlikely buyers will bite. just wait and see, the longer the gap stays the more buyers will be stucked. and the moment buyers starts blinking (because rental sucks and more and more condos come online), u will see prices in the secondary mkt tumble as things snowballed.

  9. #9
    Newbie
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    29

    Default experts

    its all these experts that land us where we are today ... If they are so smart, why they never predict all these mess ...

  10. #10
    Junior
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    2,141

    Default

    just be cautious =) always consider what their motives are =) nobody is interested in helping u to make money, they are only interested in helping themselves to make money

  11. #11
    Global recession is coming.... teddybear's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    Those who are so furious at other people who talk good about property market to the extend of slandering them are most likely desperately wanting to buy a property but could not get at a cheap enough price which they can afford. So, they must talk down the property hoping that they can get at their desired cheap price.

  12. #12
    Senior
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    5,841

    Default

    it is obvious, those who talk up e mkt r pty owners n those who talk down mkt r opportunists buyers. From exchanges in a few threads, a lot of owners in this forum are high income earners who will not sweat whichever way mkt goes coz they have holding power. For sme of those who thk pty owners in ths forum r shittng in their pants due to fallng mkt n working on thin margins, i do not thk so.

  13. #13
    Junior
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    2,141

    Default

    market tumbles again...

  14. #14
    Junior
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    1,069

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    it is obvious, those who talk up e mkt r pty owners n those who talk down mkt r opportunists buyers. From exchanges in a few threads, a lot of owners in this forum are high income earners who will not sweat whichever way mkt goes coz they have holding power. For sme of those who thk pty owners in ths forum r shittng in their pants due to fallng mkt n working on thin margins, i do not thk so.
    Agree, people that I know will have at least 2 properties, HDB and private condo/landed property, to them, cannot rent out condo, then rent out HDB stay in condo loh, when price is high then sell ... no sweat ...

  15. #15
    Junior
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Posts
    2,141

    Default

    like i said before, it doesn't matter whether u r looking to buy a property, or u r already rich with many properties and earn a lot of money and with high holding power, just take any news/recommendations with a pinch of salt.

    "always consider what their motives are =) nobody is really interested in helping u to make money, they are only interested in helping themselves to make more money"

    that the main point.

  16. #16
    Newbie
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    7

    Default

    i doubt the Goldman analysts are buying properties in spore themselves. if they are real experts, they should know china properties has a greater potential than spore

  17. #17
    Junior
    Join Date
    Nov 2008
    Posts
    1,141

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by nimm12
    i doubt the Goldman analysts are buying properties in spore themselves. if they are real experts, they should know china properties has a greater potential than spore
    IMHO it's not china, it's US properties now.

  18. #18
    Newbie
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    7

    Default

    but if USD devalue, also LPPL

  19. #19
    Junior
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    1,069

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by nimm12
    i doubt the Goldman analysts are buying properties in spore themselves. if they are real experts, they should know china properties has a greater potential than spore
    To be fair to the analysts, they presented the bull, the bear and the neutral cases with lots of graphs and facts on the relative wealth of HDB upgraders. Their opinion is that the wealthy HDB upgraders (about 270k of 5 room flats in SG), can potentially have a positive impact by drawing down the supplies of flats in the market. So far we have seen 2600+ flats sold in Q1 2009, I think we could see 3000+ flats sold in Q2 2009 considering the 1200+ flats in April. Enbloc sellers who were previously priced out of the market may choose also to return to market. Barring further crisis, if the momentum continues, probably we can achieve 8000-10000 flats sold this year to help to draw down the supplies even though the economic recovery may be sluggish.

  20. #20
    Newbie
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    402

    Default

    If the assumption is that prospective buyers (from en bloc) were renting (as they got priced out) and will buy soon.

    What happens when they vacate their rental units? It is zero sum game.
    Unless we assume everyone is squatting with the in-laws.

  21. #21
    Junior
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    1,069

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by sabian
    If the assumption is that prospective buyers (from en bloc) were renting (as they got priced out) and will buy soon.

    What happens when they vacate their rental units? It is zero sum game.
    Unless we assume everyone is squatting with the in-laws.
    I personally know someone from Gillman Height enbloc who just bought the Sembawang terraced house from Fragrance Land in May, a few days after he bought, all sold out (total 22 units). Enbloc sellers who previously priced out from luxury segment may also return now as there are quite a lot of enblocs in luxury segments in the last 2 years. Of course this is just speculation, it has to be proved by the private home sales data both in primary and secondary markets. So far, the data from Feb to May is encouraging although not exactly exciting. Buyers of luxury segment can always play the waiting game as there is still a large supply overhang in that segment.

  22. #22
    Newbie apple3's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    407

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    To be fair to the analysts, they presented the bull, the bear and the neutral cases with lots of graphs and facts on the relative wealth of HDB upgraders. Their opinion is that the wealthy HDB upgraders (about 270k of 5 room flats in SG), can potentially have a positive impact by drawing down the supplies of flats in the market. So far we have seen 2600+ flats sold in Q1 2009, I think we could see 3000+ flats sold in Q2 2009 considering the 1200+ flats in April. Enbloc sellers who were previously priced out of the market may choose also to return to market. Barring further crisis, if the momentum continues, probably we can achieve 8000-10000 flats sold this year to help to draw down the supplies even though the economic recovery may be sluggish.
    Why need the analysts and economists when you have jikiat here?
    That is more than a chartist which could selectively pick figures and pack it in a nice creative statistic?

    Now even hdb can bail out oversupply condition in the private sector.. so good huh?

    Talk so much only to have sabian tell you 1 - 1 = 0.

  23. #23
    Newbie apple3's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    407

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    i think most guys in this this forum .. who actively defend their properties ..are most likely stuck...hehehe
    Hey pal, I'm not defending or attacking.. how huh? I lost my way here huh?

  24. #24
    Newbie apple3's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    407

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    I personally know someone from Gillman Height enbloc who just bought the Sembawang terraced house from Fragrance Land in May, a few days after he bought, all sold out (total 22 units). Enbloc sellers who previously priced out from luxury segment may also return now as there are quite a lot of enblocs in luxury segments in the last 2 years. Of course this is just speculation, it has to be proved by the private home sales data both in primary and secondary markets. So far, the data from Feb to May is encouraging although not exactly exciting. Buyers of luxury segment can always play the waiting game as there is still a large supply overhang in that segment.
    From your posts, you always personally know people that hit right buy timely and in one way or another sustain bull rally.. wah.. your circle very wide and full of winner hor?

    Hey, you know any guy or that hongkonger that default on developer?
    Or someone in cathay that manage to buy Parakou off 36pct?

    I think your purchase of double bay really change you. Don't worry lah, the whole singapore property crash your double bay will still be a bulldozer. Maybe 2000psf wor..

    Like dat can? hahahha...

  25. #25
    Newbie
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    7

    Default

    Goldman may be right about price increase

    but they did not mention that when property price hikes cannot be matched by real income from employment and rental, price correction has to happen sooner or later

    when this happen, the worst scenario that bulls are afraid of is panic selling, when bulls compete with each other to exit market. (aka bubble burst)

    that is the day bears are waiting to see now

    for people who urgently need place to stay, no choice but have to buy...
    for people looking for 2nd and 3rd property, hold on to your cash for now
    for people already bought during 07/08 peaks, good luck to you

  26. #26
    Global recession is coming.... teddybear's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    I thought the property bubble already burst last year? How to burst again now? Next bubble in another 12 years time?

    Quote Originally Posted by nimm12
    when the property price hikes cannot be matched by real income from employment and rental, price correction has to happen

    when this happen, the worst scenario that bulls are afraid of is panic selling, when bulls compete with each other to exit market. (aka bubble burst)

    that is the day bears are waiting to see now

    for people who urgently need place to stay, no choice but have to buy...
    for people looking for 2nd and 3rd property, hold on to your cash for now
    for people already bought during 07/08 peaks, good luck to you

  27. #27
    Newbie
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Posts
    402

    Default

    15% q-o-q slide is not bursting.

  28. #28
    Global recession is coming.... teddybear's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2009
    Posts
    10,800

    Default

    I thought the cumulative slide is already >40% (for example Rivergate - Peak >$2000 psf, now ave $12xx psf).

    Quote Originally Posted by sabian
    15% q-o-q slide is not bursting.

  29. #29
    Newbie
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    335

    Default

    nbcb this goldman really knn. after temasek sell at low liao, now then upgraded boa to strong buy. u trust this sort of cb bank?

  30. #30
    Newbie apple3's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2009
    Posts
    407

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Anus
    nbcb this goldman really knn. after temasek sell at low liao, now then upgraded boa to strong buy. u trust this sort of cb bank?
    a lot of gongkia believe in this kind of cb bank.

    and this group of gongkia repackage the products under the term of "strategic long-term investment" and sell to kum-gongkia

Similar Threads

  1. StanChart sees further S'pore home price drop
    By Ringo33 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 20
    -: 04-06-14, 14:04
  2. Savills sees private property prices rising 2%, not falling as expected
    By reporter2 in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 10-02-14, 17:10
  3. Goldman sees stronger SGD and STI to close at 3500 end of 2013
    By phantom_opera in forum Coffeeshop Talk
    Replies: 0
    -: 12-12-12, 15:01
  4. US home prices won't remain steady: Goldman
    By mr funny in forum HDB, EC, commercial and industrial property discussion
    Replies: 0
    -: 28-10-09, 22:19
  5. Indon's Lippo Group sees higher S'pore property prices
    By mr funny in forum Singapore Private Condominium Property Discussion and News
    Replies: 0
    -: 25-06-07, 01:51

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •