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Thread: May - Dec 2009

  1. #1
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    Default May - Dec 2009

    Is it a good time to buy now ?

    Either for stay or investment

    Any advice appreciated

    Thanks

  2. #2
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    Here's my 2 cents worth,

    HDB still high priced...
    Mass market condo... seems to have bottomed, I think it is good time to go in....
    Prime condos, I feel still early can wait awhile....
    Mid Market e.g. district 15,21 and selected areas like Lorong chuan and others... there are some good buys, but must be selective and needs patience. quite a few sellers holding out...

    Just my opinion....

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by MGM Grand
    Here's my 2 cents worth,

    HDB still high priced...
    Mass market condo... seems to have bottomed, I think it is good time to go in....
    Prime condos, I feel still early can wait awhile....
    Mid Market e.g. district 15,21 and selected areas like Lorong chuan and others... there are some good buys, but must be selective and needs patience. quite a few sellers holding out...

    Just my opinion....
    huh? Already bottomed? So it is unlikely to reach the last period of rock bottom price whereby we can get per sq feet as low as $400+?

    Heard during that time. some ppls can manage to get a penthouse at $550k

    Kindly advise..thx

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    Quote Originally Posted by Axela72
    huh? Already bottomed? So it is unlikely to reach the last period of rock bottom price whereby we can get per sq feet as low as $400+?

    Heard during that time. some ppls can manage to get a penthouse at $550k

    Kindly advise..thx
    different lah ... its a new paradigm

    my grand father both a piece of land at holland area in his younger days ... at nothing ...

    regardless the depth of the recession ... we will never see those prices again ... like in his days ..

    similiarly we have to move away from 2001-2004 era... i feel even in a severe recession .. i believe we will see at most late 2006/early 2007 price ...

  5. #5
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    maybe if singapore regresses to a developing country status, maybe you get those prices again. So wake up to the fact that we are already a developed country and no longer in the 70s or 80s when things were dirt cheap in today's terms.


    Quote Originally Posted by Axela72
    huh? Already bottomed? So it is unlikely to reach the last period of rock bottom price whereby we can get per sq feet as low as $400+?

    Heard during that time. some ppls can manage to get a penthouse at $550k

    Kindly advise..thx

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    regulators/franzmark: we are more expensive than developed countries, but that doesn't mean we're better than them. i'd rather live in sydney, london and paris than singapore. so what justification do we have to price our real estate so high?

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    Land no enuff??

    Quote Originally Posted by orange
    regulators/franzmark: we are more expensive than developed countries, but that doesn't mean we're better than them. i'd rather live in sydney, london and paris than singapore. so what justification do we have to price our real estate so high?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Axela72
    huh? Already bottomed? So it is unlikely to reach the last period of rock bottom price whereby we can get per sq feet as low as $400+?

    Heard during that time. some ppls can manage to get a penthouse at $550k

    Kindly advise..thx
    $400 psf or less..can get.....go yishun....yishun condos now selling at your price
    better HDB areas also mostly at this price

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    We are not rated as being among the top cities for quality living for nothing, and that is by expats who come here. I can't believe you would mention london. That place is absolutely filthy and the weather there is cold most part of the year and you constantly see beggars roaming and living in the streets and drunkards slamming bottles everywhere. You should listen to the song Streets of London....


    Quote Originally Posted by orange
    regulators/franzmark: we are more expensive than developed countries, but that doesn't mean we're better than them. i'd rather live in sydney, london and paris than singapore. so what justification do we have to price our real estate so high?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Regulators
    We are not rated as being among the top cities for quality living for nothing, and that is by expats who come here. I can't believe you would mention london. That place is absolutely filthy and the weather there is cold most part of the year and you constantly see beggars roaming and living in the streets and drunkards slamming bottles everywhere. You should listen to the song Streets of London....
    agree ...

    i didnt like Singapore but after living in many cities in europe .. i ve come to realise its not that bad .. apart from a real lack of 'freedom of speech' and discrimination ..mainly against men ..

    i guess most who like it here ..its for the fact that ..you can walk alone ..almost in the dark ..from dempsey hill, thru Ridley ..to tanglin .. and feel SAFE .....

    i still dont like singapore .. but less dislike than before ..

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by MGM Grand
    Here's my 2 cents worth,

    HDB still high priced...
    Mass market condo... seems to have bottomed, I think it is good time to go in....
    Prime condos, I feel still early can wait awhile....
    Mid Market e.g. district 15,21 and selected areas like Lorong chuan and others... there are some good buys, but must be selective and needs patience. quite a few sellers holding out...

    Just my opinion....
    Technically, if we have the private residential index bounces off 140 in Q2 2009, i think your opinion would become facts. Very good observation indeed.

  12. #12
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    you live in singapore and at least you have the feeling that you are not alone. in big and cold cosmopolitan cities like london, paris etc, you have the feeling of being alone most of the time and it seems like no one gives a shit about anybody in big cities and a local there sometimes feel like they are a foreigner in the midst of people from more than 80 countries around them.....


    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    agree ...

    i didnt like Singapore but after living in many cities in europe .. i ve come to realise its not that bad .. apart from a real lack of 'freedom of speech' and discrimination ..mainly against men ..

    i guess most who like it here ..its for the fact that ..you can walk alone ..almost in the dark ..from dempsey hill, thru Ridley ..to tanglin .. and feel SAFE .....

    i still dont like singapore .. but less dislike than before ..

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    I agree that london tube sucks and the place is filthy. but the social scene is great. their culture is great. people are friendly. same goes for SF, NY, sydney, paris.

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    it is people and culture that makes a city, not just infrastructure. that's why I would rather invest in western cities than s'pore. global investment funds would rather as well.

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    truly cosmopolitan cities like london, ny, sf are the reason why those economies will never die. they keep absorbing new blood, creating and innovating. s'pore is just a modern jungle with kampong mentality. very little potential growth and that includes ppty

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    Quote Originally Posted by orange
    I agree that london tube sucks and the place is filthy. but the social scene is great. their culture is great. people are friendly. same goes for SF, NY, sydney, paris.
    For a moment i thought you were describing Bangkok...

    Thai culture is great and the people are really friendly... traffic is a nightmare at peak hours but then again, so is the traffic in london during peak hours. Cleaniness may be an issue but the streets of Paris is also littered with dog poo all over...

    Bangkok also very cosmopolitan coz many Many Ang Mohs love that place and chose to work, live and settle there.... But still somehow they never made it into the list of "great cities".....

    Why?

    Coz the ratings all given by Ang Mohs and they want to make their own cities look good but in actual fact, tons of them flock to Asia when given the slightest opportunity...

    Grass is always greener on the other side lah...

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    Quote Originally Posted by BenziT77
    Is it a good time to buy now ?

    Either for stay or investment

    Any advice appreciated

    Thanks
    Whoever who thinks that the economy will rebound by Q309, hyperinflation will happen, must be dreaming....

    =================================================

    Record dip in March output
    By Fiona Chan





    OUTPUT from Singapore's manufacturing sector shrank a record amount last month, dealing a setback to hopes the economy is starting to turn the corner.


    Factory production, which accounts for about a quarter of economic output, plunged 33.9 per cent last month compared to the same month a year earlier, according to data released by the Economic Development Board (EDB) on Friday.

    It was dragged down by the drugs cluster, which shrivelled 55 per cent last month due to a different mix of pharmaceutical products. Electronics did little better, declining 35 per cent on weak global demand.

    The March numbers were significantly worse than February's drop of 15.1 per cent and beat even the previous record - January's plunge of 27.6 per cent. On the bright side, however, both January's and February's numbers were revised upwards from their initial estimates.

    These higher revisions led to slightly better numbers for manufacturing in the first quarter than previously predicted. The sector shrank 26.1 per cent in the first three months of the year, less than the 29 per cent decline that the Government had estimated earlier this month.

    On the strength of this, Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng thinks the abysmal growth estimate for the first quarter could also be revised upwards.

    The Government said earlier this month that the economy shrank a record 11.5 per cent in the first three months of the year. With better-than-predicted manufacturing numbers for January and February now in, this could be improved to a 10.7 per cent decline, said Mr Kit.

    On a month-on-month basis, which is a better indicator of the recent trend, manufacturing contracted 13.9 per cent last month over February. This was a sharp reversal from the previous month, when the sector actually grew 3.5 per cent in February over January.
    The worse-than-expected fall in March manufacturing marked the sixth monthly decline in a row.

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by orange
    truly cosmopolitan cities like london, ny, sf are the reason why those economies will never die. they keep absorbing new blood, creating and innovating. s'pore is just a modern jungle with kampong mentality. very little potential growth and that includes ppty
    totally agree .. these cities will never die ..they always emerge stronger after a dip ..

    why you think our spore garment wants to make singapore a Cosmopolitan ?? to have at least 6 mio people ,, theatre (durian) , IR (casino) , seafront living (sentosa, maybe St John oneday) etc etc ...even copy the London Eye ..

    everything we have here is copy from some major city in the world ..

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    Quote Originally Posted by MGM Grand
    $400 psf or less..can get.....go yishun....yishun condos now selling at your price
    better HDB areas also mostly at this price
    We dun live in a vacuum, our property prices will always be compared to our Asia peers like Tokyo, HK, Shanghai, Beijing and now even Taiwan property market is getting hotter due to the thawing off relations with China. And you need foreign investors/specuvestors to think our property are worth their while vis-a-vis our peers before they will put their money here and hence bump up the prices here.

    Tokyo prices is way below its peak though I must also say that we have strong gain the property prices in the last couple of years but now where near the extend in Japan.

    Personally, can't think of a reason why prices can't go back to 01 -04 level.

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    Personally, can't think of a reason why prices can't go back to 01 -04 level.[/quote]

    so far in the history of singapore ..there are only a few projects tat failed.. one big one..but hush hush is the ShuZhuo project ..the other is Punggol 21 (super delay until no sound no picture) ..

    i said in other threads before ..Developers are the true builders of this island .. Govt provide the 'ideas', developers do the rest ..

    you think govt will spend money to build nice shopping centre to make Orchard road famous ?

    so you think developers will LOSE money ? i believe they have better communications with govt than the ministers themselves ..

    if all developers lose money and stop buying land to launch new projects ..how will spore ever be a comopolitan ?
    how will spore ever look nice and new ?

    dist 11/21 Bkt timah will still be a swampy pig farm ... if not for rich ancestors who donated land to build schools ..you think bkt timah will ever have any drawing power ?

    so with the money spent, buying all the land from govt between 2003-2006/7 ... you think developer will sell their condos at 2001-2003 price ??

    once they lose money ..they will pull out ..then singapore will have a bad reputation .. no investors will come ..
    if IR delay ... it wil be damn bad for spore .. hence govt stepped in to help ..

    so will price fall to 2001-2004 ??

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    precisely ... developers are businessmen who wanna make $$$$$ (& minimize losses where applicable) ....

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    Agree, governement has ultimate weapon, stop rolling out HDB BTOs and stop selling DBSS lands. Look at the number of applicants for each HDB BTO project during recession to see how tight the supply is.

    And to people who don't believe in inflation story, they are not listening to all the gurus like Warren Buffet, Jim Rogers, Marc Faber etc. Once the oil & commodities skyrockets, you will suddently discover that holding cash is very risky indeed:

    Warren Buffett said on CNBC earlier Monday that the Fed’s expansionary measures “are potentially very inflationary” and the result could be “worse than the 1970’s inflation”.

  23. #23
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    Ha Ha.....lots of bros here whom are bulls.....or maybe they'll like to call themselves realists....


    Have a great week ahead.....

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    Quote Originally Posted by blackswan
    Ha Ha.....lots of bros here whom are bulls.....or maybe they'll like to call themselves realists....


    Have a great week ahead.....
    Checkout the private residential index since 1960, property price always skyrockets in each oil crisis (inflation):

    1973/74 - SG inflation > 10%
    1980/81 - SG inflation 8%
    2008 - SG inflation 6.5%

    Next inflation could be very near after the US/Japan/Europe money printing machines go into full swing. Mind you, oil is close to 60USD per barrel now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by orange
    regulators/franzmark: we are more expensive than developed countries, but that doesn't mean we're better than them. i'd rather live in sydney, london and paris than singapore. so what justification do we have to price our real estate so high?
    safe, great infrastructure, stable govt, limited land

    btw just wanted to say that in the late 70s early 80s my dad's housing loan then was 14%!!!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by sevol
    safe, great infrastructure, stable govt, limited land

    btw just wanted to say that in the late 70s early 80s my dad's housing loan then was 14%!!!!
    Your dad's 14% housing loan interest could be at the 1st & 2nd oil crisis 1973/74/80/81. Property is ok to hedge inflation provided you do not borrow (i.e. you pay off your property using cash). Property suffers from high transaction cost / tax but compensated by rental yield. Today, gold & oil & commodities ETF provide another option to hedge inflation with low transaction cost but does not provide rental yield. In terms of gold, SG stocks/properties are actually in a big bear market since 1997 !!!

    According to official CPI, inflation since 1999 is 13.5% ... quite unbelievable as even GST is already 7.5%.

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    Actually there are lots of theories out there as to how this downturn will eventually pan out, but there is no one who can stake a claim as to his/her theories are absolutely correct. After all, the outcome largely hinges on how Governments and the G7 eventually tackle the problem of rising public debt. Do they print more money, or increase taxes, or borrow more (ie issue more bonds to finance more consumption), or get the populace to increase savings and reduce consumption? Nobody knows. Maybe it's a mix of all measures. And how the market eventually absorb the excess liquidity is also in question.

    Currently the world is looking at deflation over the short term. As to whether this deflation will eventually lead to hyperinflation, nobody knows. And whether in a hyperinflationary circumstance, property (as opposed to other investment tools such as Gold and Commodities) is the best place to park one's funds is also in question. There are "optimists" today who support the "green shoots" theory, citing the stock market rebound and the better-than-expected US corporate earnings; there are "realists" today who claim that there is a lot of toxic assets out there still in the system, the systemic fault lines still exist, real demand is not back; and there are "pessimists" out there too who feel that this is the advent of the Great Depression 2.

    But nobody has the benefit of hindsight. And nobody really knows. At the end of the day, regardless of which school of thought each one of us subscribe to, life still goes on. People still need a roof (not multiple roofs) over their own heads. In short, just buy what you can afford and place your money in where you think is best. As to whether property bottom out at 06/07 levels, or 01/04 levels, or 80s levels, also nobody knows right?

    Just my 2 cents worth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jitkiat
    Your dad's 14% housing loan interest could be at the 1st & 2nd oil crisis 1973/74/80/81. Property is ok to hedge inflation provided you do not borrow (i.e. you pay off your property using cash). Property suffers from high transaction cost / tax but compensated by rental yield. Today, gold & oil & commodities ETF provide another option to hedge inflation with low transaction cost but does not provide rental yield. In terms of gold, SG stocks/properties are actually in a big bear market since 1997 !!!
    With high inflation and stagnant salaries, who's going to rent your unit? I would buy oil or oil alternatives to hedge against an oil crisis.

    In any case, all governments would want to prevent high inflation as it causes almost everyone, especially those in the lower strata, to be very much poorer. The last thing they want to see is social unrest.

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    Quote Originally Posted by firec
    With high inflation and stagnant salaries, who's going to rent your unit? I would buy oil or oil alternatives to hedge against an oil crisis.

    In any case, all governments would want to prevent high inflation as it causes almost everyone, especially those in the lower strata, to be very much poorer. The last thing they want to see is social unrest.
    I agree with you buying oil futures or ETF might be a better hedge. But knowing Singaporeans, you ask them to use 200k cash as deposit to buy a new condo they are ok, you ask them to use 50k to buy oil ETF or futures they will say you are crazy.

    And people talk about short-term deflation, the only thing I observe going down is stocks, properties, petrol price, rental, other than that basic things like rice, sugar, coffee, university course fees all still the same level, what is going on man?

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    Quote Originally Posted by proud owner
    Personally, can't think of a reason why prices can't go back to 01 -04 level.
    so far in the history of singapore ..there are only a few projects tat failed.. one big one..but hush hush is the ShuZhuo project ..the other is Punggol 21 (super delay until no sound no picture) ..

    i said in other threads before ..Developers are the true builders of this island .. Govt provide the 'ideas', developers do the rest ..

    you think govt will spend money to build nice shopping centre to make Orchard road famous ?

    so you think developers will LOSE money ? i believe they have better communications with govt than the ministers themselves ..

    if all developers lose money and stop buying land to launch new projects ..how will spore ever be a comopolitan ?
    how will spore ever look nice and new ?

    dist 11/21 Bkt timah will still be a swampy pig farm ... if not for rich ancestors who donated land to build schools ..you think bkt timah will ever have any drawing power ?

    so with the money spent, buying all the land from govt between 2003-2006/7 ... you think developer will sell their condos at 2001-2003 price ??

    once they lose money ..they will pull out ..then singapore will have a bad reputation .. no investors will come ..
    if IR delay ... it wil be damn bad for spore .. hence govt stepped in to help ..

    so will price fall to 2001-2004 ??[/quote]

    Bro, you talk like an agent. Haha, LOL

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