Foremost, maybe we could keep this exchange be "dynamic" & constructive yet no hard feeling. K? coolz.
I singled out CityDev bcos we are in a property forum mah.
Then why not Capitaland, Capitamall & HKLand + another 2 diverse SPH & F&N? They are also index stock like Citydev in STI. Why? Because City had a high double gain? or Capitaland underperform?
[JK] I think Capitaland, UOL and CityDev all are breaking resistance with good volume. It is fair to just pick one of them as the representative for illustration.
Property stock price is a leading indicator of property market health.
This is debatable. But, even if it an indicator, the react time is widely accepted to be 6mths by industry standard. Even analysis in BT said 9mths. And you are talking abt Q209, now?
[JK] Well, if you wait for another 6mths and you wait till October for Q3 data to be out, the Q32009 data did confirm a recovery say the private residential index is at 150, STI is probably at 2600 and most property stocks would have recovered another 20%. What will be the selling price of property that you are targetting at that time? What is the chance that it is lower compared to now and are you sure you are still able to get the unit that you want? Therefore, you must buy a property when a bottom in stock market is confirmed not when the private residential index tells you so.
technical chartist analyzes chart and tries to predict the probability of upside/downside
Precisely I'm trying to emphasize that since STI drop from 3300 a year back to now 2000 and property price did NOT correct downward proportionly, how could you then chart upward by proportion against STI or even S&P?? Goodness! You never answer this question yet bring kopi and tea out..
[JK] If u look at the chart for high-end condos, it does track the STI in proportion. For mid-end/mass-market condo, it is to a lesser degree, go up less so come down less. Again, when STI broke 1950 today, it does confirm to a high probability that the worst is over. To me, this is the best time to buy a property. You can sit on the sidelines and hope that the worst is yet to come ... but what is the probability? Of course anything can happen, the Swine flu virus can suddenly mutate and kill half of Singaporeans then propery index will crash ...
And the fact is that the stock market brushes aside all bad news like Swine Flu and Citi/BAC requirement to raise capital and breaking key resistance level today with strong volume.
It double edge sword my friend. The fact that the market is brushing away the bad elements and YET there are little ground to sustain the rally is causing some nerves tweaking. We may be seeing punters and not investors back in the market.
[JK] Little ground? That is because the buyers know something that the public don't know. Very soon you will find out why the market keeps going up.
Amplify bullish context, may be a little as I have vested interest in properties.
Nope. You "glorify" bull a lot.. which is more than a little but less than too much. Expecially after you committed DB. I have covered most of your threads before I launch this crusade.
I mean it alright to be bullish especially if so much effort, time and research had been conducted in search of your dream home. Which I think by now you are a Simei prop expert and I should have congrat you of upgrading from the 85% with a nice built-up by UOL, so to speak. But, I don't see the point of zooming in selective context and amplify it. A sin call "mis-leding" tend to commit in the process.
Coolz..