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Thread: Record 13.8 per cent fall in private home prices

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    Default Record 13.8 per cent fall in private home prices

    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...26421,00.html?

    April 1, 2009, 4.45 pm (Singapore time)

    Update: S'pore home prices in steepest drop since 1975

    *Private home prices fell 13.8 per cent in Q1 from Q4
    *Homes in central areas show largest decline
    *Analysts expect further fall, but pace of decline may ease



    SINGAPORE - Singapore private home prices suffered their biggest drop in more than 30 years in the first three months of 2009 as the country's worst-ever recession hammered investor sentiment in the recently booming property market.

    Home prices fell 13.8 per cent in the first quarter of this year compared with the previous quarter, the Urban Redevelopment Authority said on Wednesday, more than twice as much as the 6.1 per cent drop in October-December 2008.

    The fall marked the third straight quarterly drop and was the steepest fall since the second quarter of 1975, URA said.

    Shares in Singapore property firms such as CapitaLand and City Developments shrugged off the gloomy market data in spite of analysts saying the drop in the URA's private residential property price index had been steeper than expected.

    'The trend is clearly downward,' said Colin Tan, head of research and consultancy at Chesterton Suntec, a real estate consultancy. He said the sharp drop in the index showed momentum was strong and that home prices will fall further before they find a bottom.

    But he added that the sharp decline in the index may overstate the market's weakness because of a dearth of deals involving homes in prime areas, several of which were sold at distressed prices.

    According to the data, prices of non-landed private homes in the core central region fell 15.2 per cent during the first quarter. Prices of homes in the 'rest of central region' declined 17.2 per cent, while prices outside the central region only dropped 7.5 per cent.

    Resale prices for Housing Development Board (HDB) apartments fell 0.6 per cent in the first quarter from the last three months of last year, a separate index compiled by HDB showed.

    Mohamed Ismail, chief executive of property agent PropNex, expects prices to decline a further 7-10 per cent this year in the core central and rest of central regions, and 3-5 per cent for homes in outlying areas. -- REUTERS

    Click here for URA news release

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    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...419341/1/.html

    Property prices down in Q1

    By Ng Baoying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 01 April 2009 1425 hrs


    SINGAPORE: Prices for private property and public housing fell steeply in the first three months of the year.

    In the Housing and Development Board (HDB) resale market, the first drop since 2006 was seen.

    HDB's flash estimate, based on its Resale Price Index, showed a decline of 0.6 per cent in the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter of last year, which had registered a 1.4 per cent increase.

    Still, some property agents believe the resale flat market will remain resilient.

    They said the first quarter decline in prices is largely due more flats being sold below their valuation.

    The biggest drop on record though is 4.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2005, after the HDB imposed curbs on cash-back practices, a scam where buyers inflated home loans to get extra cash.

    As for private residential property, flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) showed prices were down 13.8 per cent in the three months to March.

    That was more than twice as steep as the 6.1 per cent decline in the fourth quarter of last year. It also the second consecutive quarter on quarter decline in prices.

    "The drivers would really be the slowing to a trickle of new sales we saw in the fourth quarter of 2008, which spilled into January 2009. I think all this happened amid a deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, tighter credit market and worsening job market," said Tay Huey Ying, director of Research & Advisory at Colliers International.

    Nicholas Mak, director of Consultancy & Research with Knight Frank agreed: "One of the driving factors for this steep fall in prices is the lack of buying demand. Also, because there are some sellers who are much more realistic, pricing units ahead of the curve to sell their units in the current market."

    Based on geographical regions, prices in the "rest of central region" fell the steepest, at more than 17 per cent compared to 6.2 per cent in the fourth quarter.

    Prices of non-landed private residential properties decreased by 15.2 per cent in the "core central region", much higher than the 6.5 per cent fall seen in late 2008.

    Prices "outside the central region" fell 7.5 per cent, compared to the 5.9 per cent drop seen in the previous quarter.

    But analysts note that this is as bad as it gets, as developers have already cut prices significantly.

    Although prices will continue to drop, the pace will taper off or moderate in the coming quarters, likely to be in the region of 8 per cent for 2Q 2009, maybe even tapering off to about 3-5 per cent per quarter for the subsequent quarters," said Tay.

    Furthermore, the mass market segment is still well supported by HDB upgraders.

    Going forward, analysts expect developers to use competitive pricing, or marketing strategies such as rental or price guarantees to move sales.

    The flash estimates are compiled based on transaction prices given in caveats lodged during the first ten weeks of the quarter, supplemented by information on the number of new units sold.

    - CNA/yt/sf/ls

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    Does it mean that price should drop at the value worst that all previous down turn?

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    Well bro, I would like to buy Ardmore or Claymore at $800 psf also like the last downturn but I dunno if that is wishful thinking.

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    Really? When did Ardmore or Claymore luxury condo sell for $800 psf? Which projects are those? I dripping siliva...

    Quote Originally Posted by ahlahdin
    Well bro, I would like to buy Ardmore or Claymore at $800 psf also like the last downturn but I dunno if that is wishful thinking.

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    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...26441,00.html?

    Published April 2, 2009

    Private home prices take double-digit dive

    Even gravity-defying HDB resale prices show signs of cracking in Q1 with 0.6% slide

    By UMA SHANKARI

    Click here for URA's news release

    (SINGAPORE) Private home prices plunged 13.8 per cent in the first three months of this year - a record quarterly drop as developers and other market players slashed their expectations.

    It was the third quarterly fall in prices - and much steeper than the 6.1 per cent drop in the preceding Q4 2008, according to advance estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) yesterday. Private home prices dipped 1.8 per cent in Q3 2008 after 17 straight quarters of growth.

    Prices of resale HDB flats, which seemed to defy gravity and grew throughout 2008, also fell in Q1 2009 - by 0.6 per cent - after nine quarters of growth.

    Analysts were expecting a significant drop in private home prices, but the actual fall was bigger than thought. In recent months, developers have cut the selling prices of new homes and sellers of secondary properties have also trimmed their asking prices.

    'The fall is not surprising as a lot of developers have reduced prices to move new units, and in the resale market, people are now asking for more reasonable prices,' said DTZ's senior director Chua Chor Hoon.

    DMG & Partners Securities' analyst Brandon Lee said that new projects and units in previously launched but unsold projects, were being launched or relaunched at 10-30 per cent discounts to the original intended selling prices. Also, there were distressed sales in the secondary market.

    Aggressive price cutting by developers seems to have paid off. An estimated 2,100-plus new homes were sold in Q1 - the highest level since the market was hit by the US mortgage crisis in the last quarter of 2007 and more than four times the number of new units sold in Q4 2008. But the pick-up in sales volume was at the expense of prices.

    URA's non-landed private home price index for the Core Central Region, which includes the prime districts, financial district and Sentosa Cove, fell 15.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter in Q1. In the Rest of Central Region, prices fell 17.2 per cent. And in the Outside Central Region, which is a proxy for suburban mass-market locations, they fell 7.5 per cent.

    The drop in HDB resale prices took some observers by surprise, as analysts tracking the sector had said that they would continue to rise in the first half of this year, though at a slower pace than in 2008.

    'HDB resale prices increased some 32 per cent since Q1 2007 before reaching a new peak in Q4 2008,' said ERA Asia-Pacific associate director Eugene Lim. The marginal decrease in Q1 shows HDB resale prices are now moving in tandem with the deteriorating economic and unemployment conditions.

    Analysts said that the main cause of the fall in HDB's resale index is the lower cash-over-valuation (COV) amounts that buyers are now willing to pay. 'The slight dip is probably due to more buyers of HDB flats being resistant to paying high levels of COV,' said PropNex chief executive Mohamed Ismail. 'While demand for HDB resale flats is evidently still strong, sellers in this economic climate are realising the weaker buying power of consumers.'

    Private home prices are expected to continue falling in the rest of the year. 'While the fall in prices of private residential properties in the first quarter was acute, the drab economic situation is expected to continue to place downward pressure on home prices in 2009,' said Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.

    But the pace of decline is expected to taper off. 'Developers have already made a quantum leap in reducing prices in Q1 2009 and although further declines in launch prices can be expected, the incremental drop is likely to be marginal and more gradual,' said Tay Huey Ying, director for research and advisory at Colliers International. Ms Tay expects the rate of decline in the URA price index to taper off to about 8 per cent in Q2 2009 and then 3-5 per cent for each of the subsequent two quarters.

    For the full year, analysts put the overall drop in private home prices at 20-30 per cent, with homes in the suburban areas taking the smallest hit.

    The fall in HDB prices, on the other hand, is expected to pick up steam in the rest of 2009. Analysts expect that HDB resale prices will fall by between 5 and 15 per cent for the whole of 2009.


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    http://www.straitstimes.com/Prime%2B...ry_357454.html

    April 2, 2009 Thursday

    Record 13.8 per cent fall in private home prices

    By Joyce Teo, Property Correspondent


    PRIVATE home prices fell a record 13.8 per cent in the first quarter of the year, with values of city-centre and city-fringe homes hit the most.

    Flash estimates released yesterday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) reveal that the fall is the largest since the index started in 1975.

    And they show that the market has now lost half of the gains it chalked up in the property boom just past.

    The almost 14 per cent plunge is more than double the 6.1 per cent decline in the fourth quarter of last year and nearly triple the 4.7 per cent fall for the whole of last year, according to URA data.

    Some property experts have described the fall as startling while others, such as Credo Real Estate managing director Karamjit Singh, said it was not unexpected.

    He said sales were extremely weak in the fourth quarter following the Lehman Brothers collapse and that this followed into January, adding that 'the index is playing catch-up - it has always lagged the market'.

    Contrary to typical expectations that city-centre areas would suffer the largest price drop, yesterday's data showed the biggest first-quarter price fall of 17.2 per cent hit non-landed homes in city-fringe areas.

    Non-landed city-centre home prices fell 15.2 per cent while non-landed suburban home prices dipped 7.5 per cent, said the URA, which is set to give more details on the private home market on April 24.

    So far, the mass market has been the most resilient of the three areas and will remain so, consultants said.

    Many of the new private homes sold this year - some 2,000 units or more are expected to be sold for the first quarter, compared with 4,264 units during the whole of last year - were mass-market units. High-end home deals have been few and far between. If volumes rise due to more distressed sales, the price drop may be more pronounced, experts warned.

    Prices also fell in the HDB resale market - for the first time since 2006 - albeit by just 0.6 per cent.

    'While the fall in price of private residential properties in the first quarter was acute, the drab economic situation is expected to continue to place downward pressure on home prices in 2009,' said Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak.

    But the fall may not be so sharp going forward. Developers have already made a 'quantum leap' in reducing prices during the first three months of the year, said Colliers International's director for research and advisory Tay Huey Ying.

    'Although further declines in launch prices can be expected, the incremental drop is likely to be marginal and more gradual.'

    She expects the rate of decline to taper off to around 8 per cent for the second quarter, and 3 per cent to 5 per cent for the third and fourth quarters. Overall, she expects an average fall of 25 per cent to 30 per cent this year, with a milder drop of 10 per cent to 15 per cent for the mass market.

    However, the continued decrease does not signal that the bottom is close at hand.

    'If it is going to be a deep and long recession, then the bottom of the market may not come in 2009,' said Chesterton Suntec International's head of research and consultancy Colin Tan.

    Currently, all bets are out on whether the fall for this downward cycle will be deeper than expected though, according to Mr Singh, history shows that prices at the bottom of the present trough will be higher than those experienced at the lowest point of the previous downturn.


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    http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking...8.html?vgnmr=1

    April 1, 2009

    Home prices slip in Q1

    By Joyce Teo


    THE pick-up in sales volume of new homes in the first quarter did little to stem the slide in private home prices.

    In the HDB resale market, prices also fell - for the first time since 2006.

    Private home prices declined by 13.8 per cent as the gloomy economic climate took its toll in the first three months of the year, following a 6.1 per cent plunge in the fourth quarter of last year, according to flash estimates from the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Wednesday.

    Location-wise, the biggest price fall of 17.2 per cent for non-landed homes was witnessed in the rest of the central region, and not the very core areas, where prices slipped by 15.2 per cent. Outside the central region, prices also went down by 7.5 per cent.

    But sales of new private homes were strong, with the market estimating first quarter sales at some 2,000 units or more, compared with sales of 4,264 new units in the whole of last year.

    Meanwhile, prices of HDB resale flats slipped 0.6 per cent, compared with a 1.4 per cent climb in the fourth quarter, according to early estimates from HDB.

    The URA and HDB estimates will be updated in four weeks' time. More details will also be made available then.






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    this my friends is a crash, anyone who has a doubt now which way property is headed, is a fool.

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