99,000 jobs may go

[mr funny]

http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking...ry_342748.html

Feb 25, 2009

Job losses in Singapore

99,000 jobs may go

By Fiona Chan


UNEMPLOYMENT could surge beyond the levels of recent recessions to hit a 20-year high of 5 per cent next year, according to a new report by DBS.

Its Singapore economist, Irvin Seah, estimates that the economy will contract 4.8 per cent this year, bringing about a total of 99,000 net job losses in the current recession. Manufacturing would be the worst hit with about 58,000 jobs lost, he added.

Mr Seah expects the unemployment rate to 'rise steadily' to 4.8 per cent by the end of the year and peak at about 5 per cent by the midde of next year. This would be the highest level of unemployment since the manufacturing recession in 1985 and 1986, when the rate hit 6.5 per cent, he said.

While the unemployment rate briefly touched 4.8 per cent in 2003 due to Sars, for the most part it stayed below 4 per cent in 2003 and 2004. But in the current downturn, Mr Seah expects unemployment to surpass 4 per cent in the second half of this year right through next year.

Said Mr Seah in the DBS report: 'Singapore is likely to experience its worst ever growth this year with a GDP contraction of 4.8 per cent. Labour markets are expected to deteriorate further.

'The unemployment rate will likely hit 5 per cent with cumulative job losses expected to reach 99,000 by 2010. Policy measures that have been put forth so far will help to cushion the blows but the worst of the labour market cycle is yet to come.'

The Singapore economy shrank by 3.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared to a year ago. Non-oil domestic exports plunged by 17.7 per cent in the same quarter, down significantly from an average negatove 4.2 per cent for the first three quarters of last year.

NODX growth in January plummeted by 34.8 per cent - the sharpest single month decline ever and a clear reflection of the collapse in global demand. Singapore's unemployment rate has risen in the previous two quarters as the labour market continued to feel the heat of the global recession.

About 73,100 Singapore residents were jobless in December last year, an increase of about 58 per cent over a year ago. Job growth also slowed significantly, with just 26,900 jobs created in the fourth quarter, which is less than half the total gain of 55,700 in the previous quarter.

'Against the backdrop of the dire economic conditions, this is probably just the initial stage of a protracted down-cycle in the employment market. Job losses and unemployment rate will continue to rise as companies struggle to cope with the impact of the global downturn,' said Mr Seah.

[mr funny]

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...20847,00.html?

Published February 26, 2009

99,000 job losses seen in Singapore by next year

The economy will probably contract 4.8% in 2009, says DBS


(SINGAPORE) Singapore may lose 99,000 jobs by 2010 amid the country's worst economic slump, pushing the unemployment rate to 5 per cent by the middle of next year, DBS Bank Ltd said.

The economy will probably contract 4.8 per cent in 2009, more than a decline of 3.3 per cent previously forecast, economist Irvin Seah wrote in a report published yesterday. Job losses this time will be worse than the previous two downturns in the aftermath of the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the 2001 bursting of the dotcom bubble, he said.

'With growth this weak, labour market conditions are expected to deteriorate further,' Mr Seah said. 'Job losses and the unemployment rate will continue to rise as companies struggle to cope with the impact of the global downturn.' Singapore's manufacturers such as Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing Ltd are cutting jobs as overseas shipments of electronic goods and drugs tumble amid declining orders from their biggest customers in the US and Europe. Exports, described by Mr Seah as 'Singapore's lifeline', fell by the most in at least 22 years last month.

The city state's seasonally adjusted jobless rate rose to 2.6 per cent last quarter from 2.2 per cent in the previous three-month period, according to the Ministry of Manpower. DBS expects the unemployment rate to reach 4.8 per cent by end-2009 and peak at 5 per cent by mid-2010. About 58,000 workers in the manufacturing industry may lose their jobs, while more than 69,000 people in logistics, wholesale and retail trade services may be fired, Mr Seah said. He expects job losses in the financial industry to exceed 16,700.

Job gains in construction and some services will offset other losses, he said.

'Companies that are not doing well will need to cut costs to remain viable or may be forced to wind down,' Mr Seah said. 'As a result, higher employment and more job losses will be inevitable. The going will get tougher as the worst of the labour market cycle is yet to come.' - Bloomberg