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Originally Posted by
gfoo
The crux of these interesting argumentative threads is really - is rivergate fairly priced now and hence mitigate any bank action down the road (ie significant fall below today's price).
Look at the potential of rivergate's vicinity and then do price comparisons. Do not take into account the idiots that bought Alexis at $1200 and Arte at $900-$1000.
There is almost ZERO developmental potential for rivergate in a 1km radius, much less a 500m radius - no MRT, no commercial/entertainment hub, no shopping mall, just lotsa lotsa more condos. and maybe zouk. look at the billions the govt is pumping into the marina bay, and south/southeastern area. and then the hundreds of millions into the one-north area. then look at rivergate. there are just waaay too many developments in that area that are poised to bring prices down. S@C, st thomas stretch, and the new devonshire development are waay closer to orchard, and if devonshire is priced at $1400 avg, RG is truly in trouble.
I used to rent and my rental decision was simple - location & prestige. I wanted to be able to tell my colleagues and friends: lim peh stay at XXXX. If RG and MBR both carry the same rental psf, i would go for MBR. RG is not in the exclusive enclaves of orchard, nor the high-end commercial enclaves. Agents say its in the epicenter of Raffles Place and Orchard. I say its in the middle of nowhere.
the launch price of RG avg out at $1000 in 2006. then some champion bidded it up to $1700, and it started a localised bubble. it's now about $1350-$1400. That's still 40% from launch price. and 2006 was 15% higher than 2005. so you're looking at 55% premium. at $1350, RG is overpriced.
At the Sail, in 2004 first launch was $900psf. 2nd launch in 2005 was $1100.
Even if i bought close to the 2nd launch price, i'm shitting in my pants for bank action down the road. but because i'm buying at just about a 15% premium, my downside is somewhat mitigated. Not to mention i have no PES area to speak of, which since Feb09 banks are consciously trying to price out of valuations.
At one-north, the lee dynasty is trying to bank hard on multimedia, cinematic, and biotech industries. it really doesn't matter if that works out. what matters is the amount of infrastructure funds the government is pumping in. valuations in ONR peaked to $1200. it's now $800. it was launched at $750. I'm looking at one-north to get a studio for investment.
so it boils down to 'location, location, location'. heck even one amber is a better project price -performance wise. got MRT, got 2 shopping malls & 1 derelict mall, great view, and arguably can cycle to gardens by the bay
Does RG neighbourhood/vicinity have the potential to raise its prices beyond current levels? Your answer to this answers RG's valuation question.