I wonder how they do in September.Originally Posted by esurprise
F01 N54 Sheer Driving Pleasure
I wonder how they do in September.
Senior
30 units is good? think the sales has just dried up hehehe. there should be many 2, 3 and 4 bedders all still available.
Newbie
Precisely, it thot it should be lesser. To hear that 30units sold in Aug, i thot it was quote good :-)
How many percent has been sold huh?
Senior
can't recall offhand but probably 30+% sold.
F01 N54 Sheer Driving Pleasure
Ascentia Sky
Total units: 373
Total units launched: 180
Cumulative units sold to 31 Aug 09: 148 (40%)
Newbie
Based on launched unit, is about over 80% sold.. not bad. But seems like demand not so big, else why dont they launch the other 198 units too...
Anyone know when will they launch the rest?
Newbie
Demand is consider not bad. Actually, if they are will to drop their price to $1150psf, I guess the rest of the units already snatched up.
Senior
its already "launched" in a way, because you can ask for the price for any unit and they can get you the price. Just that officially, those units does not have a list price in the price lists which agents sell. They wouldn't want to appear that take up rate is so poor right? 1.1m for a very very low floor 2 bedder just doesn't make any sense to me.
Newbie
I have got a few friends that bought condos in 2007 when the prices are still consider "cheap", something like $500 to $600 psf. Today most of their project already TOP, and they realised that, at that "cheap" price they still find it difficult to service the loan.I really don't understand how are these people going to service their loan when their million dollars house TOP.I think by then those that can't make it will have to sell... and by then will be to many sellers...Watch out for mid 2010 to early 2011 prices....
Senior
i think mid 2010 to early 2011 you only see prime prices weaken first because the boom for that area is 2007 ie massive TOP from late 2010 to throughout 2011. For those non prime, the boom is 2009, the problems only start when the projects TOP in 2012 to 2013.
But first, let's see how many options expire in the months ahead.
Newbie
Ya, I think you are more acurate in the segment market.i think mid 2010 to early 2011 you only see prime prices weaken first because the boom for that area is 2007 ie massive TOP from late 2010 to throughout 2011. For those non prime, the boom is 2009, the problems only start when the projects TOP in 2012 to 2013.
But first, let's see how many options expire in the months ahead.
Maybe buyers out there can buy at the "reasonable" price in future.
In fact even now I start to see FIRE SALES advert in the ST, and also plenty of houses for sale.
They are more and more ads in sat ST.
Sellers are getting out now....
F01 N54 Sheer Driving Pleasure
Could your few friends be the exception here?
Buyers who bought at the abovementioned psf's are millionaires now. I also know of many who can service their loans and some even buy without loan.
Stable household wealth behind property surge
Consumer spending could also recover more quickly than in previous recessions
Conrad Tan
The Business Times
Tuesday, 25 August 2009
The net worth of Singapore households has fallen only slightly from its peak last year and is still much higher than it was at the start of this decade, according to an analysis by a senior Citigroup economist.
This resilience in household wealth is one likely reason for property sales volumes and prices having rebounded strongly in recent weeks, and could mean that consumer spending here recovers more quickly than in previous recessions.
'The strength of the household balance sheet probably explains to some extent the rally in asset prices, in particular housing, and may set the stage for a swifter recovery in domestic spending,' Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng said in a report yesterday.
Mr Kit estimates that Singapore households had a combined net worth of just over $900 billion as at the second quarter of this year - down only 5-6% from the peak in 2008 and 70% higher than in 2000, despite the slump in asset prices due to the financial crisis.
That net worth measures the value of cash, shares, property and other assets owned by households, less any liabilities such as mortgages and personal loans.
Mr Kit used data from the Monetary Authority of Singapore's latest Financial Stability Review and past studies by the Singapore Department of Statistics that show changes in households' balance sheets until the third quarter of 2008. He then estimated more recent values for households' assets and debts.
While household debt had risen by 30% from 2000 to the second quarter of this year, the value of household assets rose at double that pace, or some 60%, over the same period, Mr Kit's estimates show.
'Even accounting for private home price declines in 2008 and the first quarter of this year, with HDB prices holding up and cash positions building, total household assets are up 60% from 2000, and only 4.3% down from the peak in Q2 2008,' he said.
Financial asset holdings grew especially quickly - holdings of cash and deposits rose almost 70% from 2000 to the peak in the third quarter of 2007, while holdings of shares and securities rose almost 150%.
Given the recent rally in equity prices and the continued accumulation of cash, Mr Kit estimates that total financial assets held by Singapore households have fallen only 3.2% from the Q3 2007 peak.
While the dollar value of household debt has risen in recent years, the even more rapid increase in assets means that debt is now only 16-17% of total assets, compared with 20-21% in 2000-01. Households' cash holdings alone exceed total household liabilities in aggregate, although most of that cash is likely to be concentrated in higher-income households.
The lower proportion of household indebtedness compared to 2000-01 'can probably be explained by wage growth - and hence, financial assets - outpacing housing price growth in nine out of the past 11 years, which has probably improved home affordability as well', Mr Kit said.
And while household debt is likely to increase further in the coming months due to recent new home purchases and the completion of homes bought under the deferred payment scheme, 'households seem unlikely to reach previous levels of leverage any time soon', he added.
'Huge buffer' of wealth
'Huge buffer' has helped households here weather recession better
Fiona Chan
The Straits Times
Tuesday, 14 July 2009
Last year, as the world succumbed to the financial meltdown, Singapore households were sitting comfortably on 6 times more assets than liabilities. -- ST Photo: Joyce Fang
If the current recession seems less painful than previous downturns, part of the reason could be that Singaporeans are richer this time around.
While consumers in the United States and Europe spent with abandon and piled up loans in the boom years, Singaporeans saved, invested and paid down debt.
Last year, as the world succumbed to the financial meltdown, Singapore households were sitting comfortably on six times more assets than liabilities, according to new estimates by French investment bank BNP Paribas.
This means that for every $1 of debt they owed in mortgages or other loans, households owned $6 in assets such as stocks and property.
This was down slightly from 2007 levels, when assets outnumbered liabilities by seven-to-one, according to Department of Statistics’ data. But it is still an advance on 2000 - before the dot.com bust, when the ratio was five-to-one.
Since then, Singaporeans have seen the value of their asset holdings soar on the back of stock and property values.
And although they became wealthier, Singaporeans refused to splurge on credit, keeping debt at roughly the same level throughout the period.
Between 2000 and last year, Singaporean households’ assets jumped 60% to $1.12trillion, but liabilities rose only 28% to $178.4billion.
Their net wealth - assets minus liabilities - rocketed to $942billion last year, according to BNP’s estimates. This is more than double the $450billion Singaporeans had in 1997 before the Asian Financial Crisis.
'What this means is that Singaporean households entered the 2008 recession in very good shape with a huge buffer,' said BNP Paribas chief economist Chan Kok Peng.
A substantial part of this buffer was in cash, with Singaporeans careful to put a large proportion of their assets in the bank - even though property and stock markets have been roaring.
The result is that for every $1 of liabilities held last year, households had $1.13 in cash deposits.
In sharp contrast, US households only had 50 cents of cash deposits for every $1 in liabilities and UK households 73 cents.
Apparently, despite being mired in its worst-ever downturn, Singapore still has a large kitty of cash. Singaporeans are sitting on $301billion of cash deposits in the bank, in addition to $67billion in Central Provident Fund accounts that can be used to buy either property or stocks, according to the latest figures for May.
This totals a 'staggering' $368billion - 143% of Singapore’s gross domestic product - said Mr Chan.
It is good news for the banking system which, added Mr Chan, depends on household deposits for its main source of funding.
But, he and other economists tempered this upbeat picture by cautioning that the data may not be representative across-the-board, as it does not take into account the different income levels of Singaporeans.
'Those who have recently become unemployed or have mistimed their property purchases at the peak of the cycle and leveraged up beyond their means, are likely to be a source of concern for their bankers,' said Mr Chan.
Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng suggested that some of the data could be skewed by foreigners, who may have deposited a lot of cash or parked their money in assets here, but left their liabilities at home.
However, Housing Board residents - who make up 85% of Singapore homeowners - are likely to be less financially stressed than others, given that HDB flat prices have held up fairly well in the current recession.
Newbie
You real? The prime has even claw back halfway from the peak of 2007. How do you know it will exceed 2007 peak or come close?i think mid 2010 to early 2011 you only see prime prices weaken first because the boom for that area is 2007 ie massive TOP from late 2010 to throughout 2011. For those non prime, the boom is 2009, the problems only start when the projects TOP in 2012 to 2013.
But first, let's see how many options expire in the months ahead.
Senior
that's my personal opinion. please feel free to disagree with it.
I look at brand new Orange Grove Residences just as an example. 4+1 asking rental 10k and no takers. Dreamier ads asking for FROM 12.5k. A $4m+ unit struggling to fetch 3% GROSS yield.
CBD area. Just check out the number of units coming out in District 1 in the next 2 years. Marina Bay Residences, One Shenton, The Clift. There's also the Lumiere in District 2. What about all those condos in Sentosa coming on stream as well? owners at the coast asking for 8k+ for 3.5m units and no takers as well. And i haven't even mentioned the huge chunk of units completing in district 9, 10 and 11.
Senior
My agent said his phone has gone dead. 2 calls a day. He says there will soon be less and less ads in ST because if there is no demand, agents will try not to advertise. Sorry, the door has already closed on the sellers.......can't get out already...
Newbie
I think the top prime will not recover to levels of 2007. Look at St regis, it is still around $2500psf. During the peak it reached $3500psf. With the huge pipeline of TOP units in 9,10,11 coming around 2011, the prime area is unlikely to go much further until we have foreign investors eventhough it has recovered somewhat.
Many ppl are confused by the liquidity bubble which is driving the mass market mickey mouse unit frenzy. We should compare the total floor area sold rather than total units sold
Senior
precisely. st regis is a bit arbitrary though. u can get units which transact at 2500psf or 3500psf and yet mean nothing in terms of general prime prices because its just 1 or 2 units and 3500psf can be for a smaller unit with better views while 2500 is for a large unit.
i agree that quantum, be it total area or total $ is important. it's clear that for the below 2000psf units, buyer resistance comes in somewhere around $3m for 4 bedders. anything above meets with resistance.
I think the top prime will not recover to levels of 2007. Look at St regis, it is still around $2500psf. During the peak it reached $3500psf. With the huge pipeline of TOP units in 9,10,11 coming around 2011, the prime area is unlikely to go much further until we have foreign investors eventhough it has recovered somewhat.
Many ppl are confused by the liquidity bubble which is driving the mass market mickey mouse unit frenzy. We should compare the total floor area sold rather than total units sold
Newbie
So back to your comment that prime area will weaken around 2010/2011. How can it weaken if it has not really recovered.
I mean....agents are saying there is in fact very few calls for resale, particularly above $2m-$3m.
So my question is if someone has $2m to $3m budget what is your take:
a) do nothing and wait & collect 0.45% FD assuming 20% cash
b) buy good bargain at resale in prime area
c) buy new at higher end launch
d) put in stocks
Junior
Serious? So bad?
Senior
He's a pure resale agent ie never do new launches, never do subsales type. previously it was seventh month. now its the cooling measures. he is now away in thailand to pray to si4 mian4 fo2. (not joking). he says its an annual ritual for pple like him who do sales.
Senior
if i am that person, and the 2 to 3m is one single bet (ie not someone who can buy one 2m unit then can later buy another one or more type):
a few months ago, i would have said put in stocks (which i did) but now i would say do nothing and wait for a good bargain to come up in resale market in prime area next year. i do not see any good bargains in resale market in prime yet. Keep your options open and cash is the instrument which helps to keep your options opened.
If you have hte budget to buy 2 or 3 such units, then of course its a different story. buy 1 now and wait to buy the rest next year.
So back to your comment that prime area will weaken around 2010/2011. How can it weaken if it has not really recovered.
I mean....agents are saying there is in fact very few calls for resale, particularly above $2m-$3m.
So my question is if someone has $2m to $3m budget what is your take:
a) do nothing and wait & collect 0.45% FD assuming 20% cash
b) buy good bargain at resale in prime area
c) buy new at higher end launch
d) put in stocks
Newbie
I wish I have the budget but I don't. Just want to understand why the buyers for resale are not really there, not withstanding the asking price for resale is simply not realistic fuelled by daily news sold out projects.
But then you are kinda of property bearish, right?
Junior
I just spoken to my agent too. Been confirmed! Zero call even for weekend adv. Time to rethink for me.
Senior
i am bearish on prime only because of the number of units (and some are really large units at that! we have not even counted the mickey mouse units which we don't even know if people really would like to rent yet!) coming up in the next 2 years. the asking price for resale prime is obviously not realistic. owners of OCR and RCR can ask for the 2007 peak prices and get away with it but not CCR owners. But they are in dreamland and still hope to be able to get those prices so they continue to ask so or rather, i should say, the peak prime owners continue to ask at a price where they hope to breakeven or make a small profit.
Senior
but you are already a diversified multi property owner right? what do you need to rethink? were you looking to buy more or sell some?
Senior
that's why my agent said he sees a decline in weekend adverts going forward. no calls how to continue to advertise like this?
resale agents damn poor thing. first banks don't match valuations cannot close deals. then boom in primary market also cause them to lose business. then seventh month. then property cooling measures.
Junior
Of course to buy more.
Newbie
maybe people who buy in CCR does not need to have rental to pay the mortgage?
My personal opinion is that CCR will always be better then the rest. The reason being, let's be honest, if a person can afford it, he or she probably would want to stay as near town as possible (at least for most people).
In another word, if CCR can drop rental real low. It doesn't have to cover whole instalment, in fact if it covers interest portion, they are already a happy camper. With that in mind, if CCR is willing to rent out a 2 bedroom at Rivergate, for say 2k per month, will there not be any taker at all?
And if so, wouldn't CCR become a big and interesting competitor for an apartment in Clementi that others are trying to rent out?
Then it becomes a question of how low can one go... can a RCR go lower then another owner who in the first place could afford an apartment in CCR?
we must not forget that people who buy and hold on to a CCR, there is a good chance they can afford to hold. The ability of rental covering instalment may not be a must.
So IMHO, not matter what the economy is, and how much over supply there is in the market, etc...etc, CCR will always be better than the rest, assuming ceteras paribus (sig).
Junior
Hard to predict that issue which I pm you.
Senior
i have to agree that many people who buy CCR do not need the rental. However, let's not forget the 2007 speculators of CCR who bought on easy credit. I am pretty sure among this huge supply that's coming out, there will be quite a number of people who will need rental to help to cover their monthly mortgage payments. The big question is how many. That can't be estimated and we shall find out soon over the course of the next year or 2.
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