View Poll Results: What is your trigger price point for One Amber / Esta? ($OApsf/$ESTApsf)

Voters
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  • $900/$1000

    12 8.51%
  • $800/$900

    8 5.67%
  • $700/$800

    19 13.48%
  • $600/$700

    52 36.88%
  • $500/$600

    31 21.99%
  • Won't even consider in 2009/2010. will wait till end 2010/2011

    19 13.48%
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Thread: What is your trigger price for OA/Esta?

  1. #1
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    Default What is your trigger price for OA/Esta?

    What would be your trigger price point for you to start getting interested, or start buying the above properties?

  2. #2
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    Poll is targeted at buyers. Naturally all buyers will want to pay as low as possible.

    Same if do a poll for sellers, obviously all want to sell as high as possible.

  3. #3
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    Why is OA psf lower than ESTA psf ??? What is the main and key diff ?

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by latour
    Why is OA psf lower than ESTA psf ??? What is the main and key diff ?
    Esta TOPed already, so there's inferred rental value. Also, new tangibles are typically priced a little higher than intangibles, as both developments are like twin sisters. Finally, Esta is technically less dense PPR than OA.

  5. #5
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    Default Good response!

    There are already 11 votes within a hour! and none of us voted for above $700 psf!

    Just curious, gfoo, as a creator, can you see who voted which option?

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by East Lover
    There are already 11 votes within a hour! and none of us voted for above $700 psf!

    Just curious, gfoo, as a creator, can you see who voted which option?
    cannot, i not admin

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    Esta TOPed already, so there's inferred rental value. Also, new tangibles are typically priced a little higher than intangibles, as both developments are like twin sisters. Finally, Esta is technically less dense PPR than OA.
    Respectfully disagree! If they do, it will not be 100psf different, dude!

    Furthermore, ESTA is at the disadvantage as it TOP at this period of time. Only nuts will rent the place at this period.

    Last but not least, MCL vs UOL. Well no need any comment for this.

  8. #8
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    wow! 2 support for $1000 psf already...
    interesting...

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by East Lover
    wow! 2 support for $1000 psf already...
    interesting...
    the 2 $1000 are vested interested speculators hoping to cash out.. haha

  10. #10
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    interesting - a fair bit of respondents say that they'll wait until 2011. Anyone who voted care to share your insights?

    for me, i'm trying to find a balance between deflation and mass inflation. We are definitely in the deflation stage right now, and this will probably last throughout 2009. But neither do i want to wait to a stage whereby mass inflation kicks in and i miss out on a good deal. To me, the price of precious metals is an early warning indicator. once gold hits past $1500, my bet is that tis time to buy property recession or not.

    oh and btw, those that think that the govt is really pumping $20.4b into the system should think again. I just went for a meeting with a government agency. The risk sharing initiative in my own interpretation is a complete farce. SMEs and companies will still have to apply to banks for capital, no special treatment or special consideration. It is now a virtually blanket requirement for company directors to underwrite loans for the company. If a company defaults on the loan, the bank will come after the company assets first, then the director's personal assets next. Only once they make the director bankrupt and stuff, will the govt's risk sharing kick in. Which director in his or her right mind will in order to maintain jobs and salaries even when no orders, put their hard earned assets at the banks mercy? the only logical alternative is to either cut pay, retrench, or both.

    so for those that think that the $20.4b will improve the economy in a big way, think again.

    In light of this, i revise my own price trigger point downwards - unfortunately cannot change my vote

  11. #11
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    It has been a while since I bothered to contribute.....so let's see how this thread ends up.

    BTW, i voted for the last option. My en-bloc was completed in July 2008, monies back to CPF earning 2.5%(I think), cash in the bank earning peanuts. But what counts is that the developer that bought my development has rented my unit back to me coz they can't re-develop now Hahahahahaha!!!!!!! So I just started paying rent Feb 2009 as the 6-months free stay just ended. All in, the monies in bank and CPF still generate positive monthly gain after deducting rental. That is why I can "laugh all the way to the bank".

    With the foreign talents leaving Singapore, while at the same time, more properties TOP to provide more choices, the rental market is going to hell as I type this. This situation will in turn drive the property prices into a downward spiral.

    And if there is no recovery in the rental market, the property prices will also not recover. This situation is the reverse of the 2006/7 rental and sale prices. It was the recovery of the rental market in 2006 that led the property price recovery in 2007.

    Just my 2 cents......and my crystal ball also tells me that I'll probably get to continue to rent my Ex-home for at least another 2 years. I really don't see the rush to buy anything now or in the near future.

    Good luck to the Optimists. Me? I am a Realist....very very realistic.

  12. #12
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    the masses seldom make super profits. That why most pple are not wealthy. If u want to get a good unit, u shld pay above d average required price coz at the mass avg price, there will be many pple looking for the same investment.. But, there's always the possibility that the avg person is wrong, then u shld wait and not buy in the next 2 yrs?

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by East Lover
    wow! 2 support for $1000 psf already...
    interesting...
    then they should be out there snapping up choice units

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Real Estate Pundit
    It has been a while since I bothered to contribute.....so let's see how this thread ends up.

    BTW, i voted for the last option. My en-bloc was completed in July 2008, monies back to CPF earning 2.5%(I think), cash in the bank earning peanuts. But what counts is that the developer that bought my development has rented my unit back to me coz they can't re-develop now Hahahahahaha!!!!!!! So I just started paying rent Feb 2009 as the 6-months free stay just ended. All in, the monies in bank and CPF still generate positive monthly gain after deducting rental. That is why I can "laugh all the way to the bank".

    With the foreign talents leaving Singapore, while at the same time, more properties TOP to provide more choices, the rental market is going to hell as I type this. This situation will in turn drive the property prices into a downward spiral.

    And if there is no recovery in the rental market, the property prices will also not recover. This situation is the reverse of the 2006/7 rental and sale prices. It was the recovery of the rental market in 2006 that led the property price recovery in 2007.

    Just my 2 cents......and my crystal ball also tells me that I'll probably get to continue to rent my Ex-home for at least another 2 years. I really don't see the rush to buy anything now or in the near future.

    Good luck to the Optimists. Me? I am a Realist....very very realistic.
    Welcome back, Real Estate Pundit!

    Guess what, I called Esta agent yesterday, and tried to test water for 4 bedder at 1.1 mil, that idiot agent cut my phone!

    Also the tropica at bedok reservoir, 4 bedders still asksing above 900K!
    and 3 bedder around 1230 sqft still dear to ask $750K and hard to negotiate

    According to the agent, those owners are not serious sellers, just wanna test market - if have idiot to buy, then they can happily upgrade, otherwise just stay loh...

  15. #15
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    there's a sucker born every minute. check this out:

    beacon edge last 2 transactions at about $779psf for a 990sqft unit.

    an idiot just paid $850psf for a similar sized unit at a worse stack.

    both stacks face the back right into joo chiat restaurants' exhaust

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    interesting - a fair bit of respondents say that they'll wait until 2011. Anyone who voted care to share your insights?

    for me, i'm trying to find a balance between deflation and mass inflation. We are definitely in the deflation stage right now, and this will probably last throughout 2009. But neither do i want to wait to a stage whereby mass inflation kicks in and i miss out on a good deal. To me, the price of precious metals is an early warning indicator. once gold hits past $1500, my bet is that tis time to buy property recession or not.

    oh and btw, those that think that the govt is really pumping $20.4b into the system should think again. I just went for a meeting with a government agency. The risk sharing initiative in my own interpretation is a complete farce. SMEs and companies will still have to apply to banks for capital, no special treatment or special consideration. It is now a virtually blanket requirement for company directors to underwrite loans for the company. If a company defaults on the loan, the bank will come after the company assets first, then the director's personal assets next. Only once they make the director bankrupt and stuff, will the govt's risk sharing kick in. Which director in his or her right mind will in order to maintain jobs and salaries even when no orders, put their hard earned assets at the banks mercy? the only logical alternative is to either cut pay, retrench, or both.

    so for those that think that the $20.4b will improve the economy in a big way, think again.

    In light of this, i revise my own price trigger point downwards - unfortunately cannot change my vote
    btw how's ur viewing this past weekend?

  17. #17
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    Quote Originally Posted by august
    btw how's ur viewing this past weekend?
    Just curious, anything special this weekend???

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by East Lover
    Just curious, anything special this weekend???
    nope..

    other than FEO ads for Rafflesia, Hillview Regency and Lakeshore lol

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by august
    btw how's ur viewing this past weekend?
    shortlisted 3 units in 3 areas, all of which are about 2rm, 1000-1200sqft

    D10 (river valley/leonie area)
    D11 (novena area NOT balestier. balestier area are ripoffs)
    D15 (east coast road area NOT tk kurau, which are also ripoffs)

    all psf have dropped between 30-50% of highs. now bargaining with developer

  20. #20
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    shortlisted 3 units in 3 areas, all of which are about 2rm, 1000-1200sqft

    D10 (river valley/leonie area)
    D11 (novena area NOT balestier. balestier area are ripoffs)
    D15 (east coast road area NOT tk kurau, which are also ripoffs)

    all psf have dropped between 30-50% of highs. now bargaining with developer
    I thought your wife gave you red light already?

    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    sigh my wife wants me to just give up this house hunting thing - too tiring she says. Just buy a HDB, fully paid up, and use the spare cash to retire or something

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by East Lover
    Welcome back, Real Estate Pundit!

    Guess what, I called Esta agent yesterday, and tried to test water for 4 bedder at 1.1 mil, that idiot agent cut my phone!

    Also the tropica at bedok reservoir, 4 bedders still asksing above 900K!
    and 3 bedder around 1230 sqft still dear to ask $750K and hard to negotiate

    According to the agent, those owners are not serious sellers, just wanna test market - if have idiot to buy, then they can happily upgrade, otherwise just stay loh...
    This is not the best time to buy from owners cos they are still hoping to get good prices like early last year's or they had bought expensive and just cannot give up. Bargaining with developers may have better luck.

  22. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by East Lover
    I thought your wife gave you red light already?
    lol. tired is one thing, but i can't see myself bringing up a family in HDB esp with the increasing spate of undesirables happening in the news lately. unless really really no choice - but now still got choice. just more troublesome i guess

  23. #23
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    Wait until the STI = 1200

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    shortlisted 3 units in 3 areas, all of which are about 2rm, 1000-1200sqft

    D10 (river valley/leonie area)
    D11 (novena area NOT balestier. balestier area are ripoffs)
    D15 (east coast road area NOT tk kurau, which are also ripoffs)

    all psf have dropped between 30-50% of highs. now bargaining with developer
    The one at D15, do you mind sharing wht's the psf price you want? If possible the project name? Are there still any units left from developer for OA or Esta?

  25. #25
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    Yo bro, no more developer units for Esta and One Amber. Have to buy from resale market.

    Generally in the east not many developer units left, imagine Tierra Vue and Grand Duchess all sold out too! But can try to catch speculators who went in late and missed the boat, now trying to le-long their units.

    Those with developer units are really new launches like Amery, Parc Seabreeze, St Patrick's Residences and the one next to Chinese Swimming Club, start with V also.

    I tink those interested in buying west coast or bukit timah area are luckier, more units left over there to bargain from developer.

    From personal experience, if you trying to bargain with those units already TOP-ed in D15 who are owned by owner, you can be prepared to

  26. #26
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    an update from Day 1 of my weekend shopping

    One Amber, 3 owners chut mouth at $850, but willing to transact at about $760-$770. mid flrs, not studios.

    but there was one champion owner chut mouth at $720! and willing to consider offers at $670 (i think liddat is a loss? dunno). mid to low floor, 3 bedder.

    after a lot of consideration and personal analysis (however flawed), i've decided to forego d15. the following reasons:
    • pace of developments in d15 gives sense of deja vu ala hillview debacle in the last recession. it lead the property downturn last time, and i've got this feeling d15 will lead this recession's declines
    • huge drops in d9 today offer tremendous value
    • quality of buyers in showrooms such as palmera, poshgrove not too good
    in 2004/5, a telok kurau apartment status cost about $350psf. today, a telok kurau apartment costs about $650/700. an 85% increase. inflation adjusted that's still a 77% premium

    in 2004/5, a balmoral apartment cost about $900psf. today, it is about $1200psf. a 33% increase. inflation adjusted, that's just a 15% premium.

    talking to so many owners, the difference is really the mentality of the owners. balmoral/orchard owners are majority indonesians, rich foreigners and corporations, and when they let go, they just let go, loss or not as long as within reasonable P&L limits.

    d15 owners are extremely kiasi, rather wait and see than lose their profit margins too much. well they have waited since October and prices continue to slide without much upside.

    those who have said 'corporations have holding power' are talking through their nose. they are all about P&L, and if they can cut to make the next quarter seem better, they rather take a small hit now, than a bigger hit down the road

    many agents i have spoken to have also given up, many preferring to represent developers and foreign owners, as they are more rooted in reality.

    so here's a hint to all: balmoral, river valley grove, leonie and grange. it really ain't that expensive if you do proper research!!!

  27. #27
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    Can't concur more. Its really a mentality issue.
    There are really some Districts that are really not as expansive
    if we look wider, even the more prime district.
    Use to be very keen on The Verte on TK H, Esta, St Patrick's Residences
    but after casting my net wider, discover that there are some better district that is not as expansive as imagine.

    But disagree on the point that D15 will lead the downturn.
    Believe the one will be D1 IMHO like The Sail and MBR and One Shenton.
    Massive supply coming onstream when the demand is just fading as fast.

    Have a great weekend to all.

  28. #28
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    an update from Day 1 of my weekend shopping

    One Amber, 3 owners chut mouth at $850, but willing to transact at about $760-$770. mid flrs, not studios.

    but there was one champion owner chut mouth at $720! and willing to consider offers at $670 (i think liddat is a loss? dunno). mid to low floor, 3 bedder.

    after a lot of consideration and personal analysis (however flawed), i've decided to forego d15. the following reasons:
    • pace of developments in d15 gives sense of deja vu ala hillview debacle in the last recession. it lead the property downturn last time, and i've got this feeling d15 will lead this recession's declines
    • huge drops in d9 today offer tremendous value
    • quality of buyers in showrooms such as palmera, poshgrove not too good
    in 2004/5, a telok kurau apartment status cost about $350psf. today, a telok kurau apartment costs about $650/700. an 85% increase. inflation adjusted that's still a 77% premium

    in 2004/5, a balmoral apartment cost about $900psf. today, it is about $1200psf. a 33% increase. inflation adjusted, that's just a 15% premium.

    talking to so many owners, the difference is really the mentality of the owners. balmoral/orchard owners are majority indonesians, rich foreigners and corporations, and when they let go, they just let go, loss or not as long as within reasonable P&L limits.

    d15 owners are extremely kiasi, rather wait and see than lose their profit margins too much. well they have waited since October and prices continue to slide without much upside.

    those who have said 'corporations have holding power' are talking through their nose. they are all about P&L, and if they can cut to make the next quarter seem better, they rather take a small hit now, than a bigger hit down the road

    many agents i have spoken to have also given up, many preferring to represent developers and foreign owners, as they are more rooted in reality.

    so here's a hint to all: balmoral, river valley grove, leonie and grange. it really ain't that expensive if you do proper research!!!
    hey bro.. ur analysis is really insightful. Thanks for sharing!! One thing for sure. Alot of investors are moving back into Orchard Road as u said

  29. #29
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackswan
    Can't concur more. Its really a mentality issue.
    There are really some Districts that are really not as expansive
    if we look wider, even the more prime district.
    Use to be very keen on The Verte on TK H, Esta, St Patrick's Residences
    but after casting my net wider, discover that there are some better district that is not as expansive as imagine.

    But disagree on the point that D15 will lead the downturn.
    Believe the one will be D1 IMHO like The Sail and MBR and One Shenton.
    Massive supply coming onstream when the demand is just fading as fast.

    Have a great weekend to all.
    aiyo D1 mai kong, there already kalangkapoh. $250 parking, $600 conservancy. 92 year leasehold, every day you hold it depreciates. now the sail studio $700k already can get. your neighbours for next 3-5 years is the construction bangla, dust and mud everywhere.

  30. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackswan

    But disagree on the point that D15 will lead the downturn.
    Believe the one will be D1 IMHO like The Sail and MBR and One Shenton.
    Massive supply coming onstream when the demand is just fading as fast.

    Have a great weekend to all.
    my sentiments too

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