View Poll Results: What is your trigger price point for One Amber / Esta? ($OApsf/$ESTApsf)

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  • $900/$1000

    12 8.51%
  • $800/$900

    8 5.67%
  • $700/$800

    19 13.48%
  • $600/$700

    52 36.88%
  • $500/$600

    31 21.99%
  • Won't even consider in 2009/2010. will wait till end 2010/2011

    19 13.48%
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Thread: What is your trigger price for OA/Esta?

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by code01
    hey bro.. ur analysis is really insightful. Thanks for sharing!! One thing for sure. Alot of investors are moving back into Orchard Road as u said
    d15 has its charms but will always be less glam than d9 and 10

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by code01
    hey bro.. ur analysis is really insightful. Thanks for sharing!! One thing for sure. Alot of investors are moving back into Orchard Road as u said
    thanks. a lot of 'upgraders' and current buyers pay too much attention to overall quantum. e.g. $440k for alexis. but that's still $1000psf for that lok sok area. my advice is have a budget, and look for the lowest % increase from 2004/2005 prices.

    don't just because a property has fallen from it's 2007 'highs' that you plunge in. let me give you a D15 example.

    Take Vitra & Beacon Edge, they are 250m apart on the same road. Vitra's launchwas $400psf, high was $700psf, now it's $554. Beacon Edge's launch was $1350psf, now it's $770psf. agent will say - waaaah beacon edge is 50% less than launch price, you sure make. but if you look at absolute values, beacon edge is still 50% more expensive than a similar property 250m down the road.

    the champion of d15 is poshgrove east. at launch, it was $5XXpsf. Developer hold back units, now trying to lelong for $800psf, claiming it's 30% cheaper than 2007 transactions of $1100psf. can you find the irony in this?

    so for those that have due to good marketing tactics, never do research, and bought poshgrove fr developer - you're an idiot as subsales are $6XXpsf.

    i still maintain d15 might have potential to be in trouble short term - go look at this weekend's rental listings, see how thick it is and see how many are from d15. these are early warning indicators. but d15 is UNBEATABLE in amenities, charm, history etc etc - long term, d15 always comes up one of the tops as per the last 150 years of singapore history. (d15 excluding telok kurau hor, that area is gone case)

    i'm not even addressing those suburban folks that think 99 yr quartz, ytr etc etc are great buys at $6-700psf. at least those that consider 1,5,9-11, 15 - they have hope.

  3. #33
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    btw great buys for terraces in siglap and tkatong now. there was an award winning built from scratch 3 storey terrace, built 2 years ago, siglap, at $550psf/land freehold. owner bought land years back at $250psf, rented out for 4 years, 2006 tore down and rebuilt at $80psf, stay in there, and then sold it at a very affordable $1.3m. i missed out on this, sold 3 days before my enquiry. owner sold to raise cash for a gcb in bt timah, which has come down soo much in terms of affordability.

    but there are tons of similar cases out there.

    e.g. 6500sq ft begonia/nims, $290psf/land (not psf/built up, which is a farce), very very beautiful 999 years - can build a tennis court on your land area

    so pple, please dun get suckered by the fancy showrooms of new launches at d15. i see the cars you drive, hdb parking labels, bring 3 generations down just to see an apt-status - pls don't overstretch and don't get suckered. money hard to earn, you don't have to bailout developers or agents

  4. #34
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    Another example of overpriced D15.
    St Patrick's View enbloc to TG Development in July 2007 for 682psf.
    However, 3 months before they first talk about the enbloc, the price is only 546psf (i.e. that's in April 2007, not too far from the peak/mania of 2007). Now they are pricing the units there around 900-1000psf.

    So can imagine before 2007 before they start the enbloc talk, what price are they only to command around that area. Low 400+???

  5. #35
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    sigh, just read in BT that caspian has sold very well. $600psf for a 99 year, cfm kena block by another condo down the road, nowhere close to the 'lake', and within smelling distance to heavy industry smog.

    just as in politics, the sheep continue to hold out their wrists to developers saying - 'come, bleed us dry'

    idiots

  6. #36
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    IMHO no point considering or even comparing apt or small projects be it in whatever district. In LT px appreciation potential is limited due to min facilities, high maintenance fees eating into rental return, and the time bomb of coughing up more $$ when the place gets old for major repair work. Their tx px is also not reflective of the area due to the lack of liquidity.

  7. #37
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    the champion of d15 is poshgrove east. at launch, it was $5XXpsf. Developer hold back units, now trying to lelong for $800psf, claiming it's 30% cheaper than 2007 transactions of $1100psf. can you find the irony in this?
    Ya, stupid developer. And why didn't they sell off the remaining 14 units at the property peak last year? Agent claimed they couldn't sell because showroom was torn down. Honestly, I think they mis-predicted that property will continue boom until poshgrove TOP. Even without showroom, they could have sold the units a la subsale style.

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by jc
    IMHO no point considering or even comparing apt or small projects be it in whatever district. In LT px appreciation potential is limited due to min facilities, high maintenance fees eating into rental return, and the time bomb of coughing up more $$ when the place gets old for major repair work. Their tx px is also not reflective of the area due to the lack of liquidity.
    ok this is a very valid and interesting point and i want to learn. Can you share more - the thinking/rationale behind this.

    i've always worked on the plot ratio basis of calculations, thus never really bothered about condo or apartment status.

    please share (before i make a bobo and put deposit down on balmoral area). thanks!

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    sigh, just read in BT that caspian has sold very well. $600psf for a 99 year, cfm kena block by another condo down the road, nowhere close to the 'lake', and within smelling distance to heavy industry smog.

    just as in politics, the sheep continue to hold out their wrists to developers saying - 'come, bleed us dry'

    idiots
    saw news on tv.. they interviewed mostly young couples
    maybe these are the ones who cant wait and need to buy for stay mah... and with HDB prices still holding up, so is not hard to understand their rationale to "upgrade" to a condo

    but wonder how long hdb prices can continue to hold up hehe

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by august
    saw news on tv.. they interviewed mostly young couples
    maybe these are the ones who cant wait and need to buy for stay mah... and with HDB prices still holding up, so is not hard to understand their rationale to "upgrade" to a condo

    but wonder how long hdb prices can continue to hold up hehe
    that's why schools should teach younger generation on money matters.
    they should have waited a month or two, top up $80-100psf more (or even less depending), and got themselves FREEHOLD one amber in the historic D15 area, instead of living next to a mosquito swamp.

    99 years are now proven not to be easy to top up lease, and then only at 75 years extra for 20% of applicants. since banks will not fund properties over 30 years old, that means a $600k caspian unit depreciates at $9k per annum.

    HDB's elderly lease buy back scheme is going to have ramifications down the road in terms of valuing 99 yr property, buyers just haven't realised this yet

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    that's why schools should teach younger generation on money matters.
    they should have waited a month or two, top up $80-100psf more (or even less depending), and got themselves FREEHOLD one amber in the historic D15 area, instead of living next to a mosquito swamp.

    99 years are now proven not to be easy to top up lease, and then only at 75 years extra for 20% of applicants. since banks will not fund properties over 30 years old, that means a $600k caspian unit depreciates at $9k per annum.

    HDB's elderly lease buy back scheme is going to have ramifications down the road in terms of valuing 99 yr property, buyers just haven't realised this yet
    i thought abt the hdb lease buy back thingy too.. it makes sense to just sell the flat instead of lease back to hdb, but then sell liao will need to find or buy another place to live.
    so is more applicable for those living in small flats who cannot downgrade anymore

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    that's why schools should teach younger generation on money matters.
    they should have waited a month or two, top up $80-100psf more (or even less depending), and got themselves FREEHOLD one amber in the historic D15 area, instead of living next to a mosquito swamp.

    99 years are now proven not to be easy to top up lease, and then only at 75 years extra for 20% of applicants. since banks will not fund properties over 30 years old, that means a $600k caspian unit depreciates at $9k per annum.

    HDB's elderly lease buy back scheme is going to have ramifications down the road in terms of valuing 99 yr property, buyers just haven't realised this yet
    Funny. You predict & expect the price to fall this year. Well the price has fallen in this case à Caspian. This launch has attracted people to go to the showroom, see see look look and some even bought. You should be happy à it happened and your crystal ball is working although the property px has not reach your dream price (if there is one).

    From your posting, I can tell you are a hardworking and smart person to a certain extend. You have done quite a lot of research as well. This world consists of people with different needs and thinking. Just because they go for 99 leasehold property in the west doesn’t mean that they have made a wrong choice. Many people grew up in the west and have made it their home. Everywhere else is not a home to them. Just like some of the forumers here prefer to live in the east side. You get the logic? Whether it is a mosquito swamp or lake depends on whether you can appreciate it.

    Top up 80-100psf more is a lot of money to some. They have a budget. Everyone has a budget including the rich and famous. My friend, not all are as rich as you. How do you know they have made the wrong choice? You may be smart but not the smartest and nobody is. I’ve been investing in properties for a few decades. I try to share whenever I can and still learning.....

    Be humble.

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by PN
    Funny. You predict & expect the price to fall this year. Well the price has fallen in this case à Caspian. This launch has attracted people to go to the showroom, see see look look and some even bought. You should be happy à it happened and your crystal ball is working although the property px has not reach your dream price (if there is one).

    From your posting, I can tell you are a hardworking and smart person to a certain extend. You have done quite a lot of research as well. This world consists of people with different needs and thinking. Just because they go for 99 leasehold property in the west doesn’t mean that they have made a wrong choice. Many people grew up in the west and have made it their home. Everywhere else is not a home to them. Just like some of the forumers here prefer to live in the east side. You get the logic? Whether it is a mosquito swamp or lake depends on whether you can appreciate it.

    Top up 80-100psf more is a lot of money to some. They have a budget. Everyone has a budget including the rich and famous. My friend, not all are as rich as you. How do you know they have made the wrong choice? You may be smart but not the smartest and nobody is. I’ve been investing in properties for a few decades. I try to share whenever I can and still learning.....

    Be humble.
    hmm, i dun see how he is not leh ~

  14. #44
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    thanks pn, lesson learnt and apologies if i came across as cocky & overbearing (my school's fault, taught me to take no nonsense and speak my mind )

    but if my posts can jolt a reader to take a step back and say - 'hey, maybe i should reconsider this 99 year property, its overvalued' - then i'd rather continue to be a pain in the arse. (mind my french, apologies again)

    in this market, it is no longer a case about capital appreciation in property. it's all about capital preservation. if i need to buy a property now, what can i buy that will not cause me to lose my hard earned cpf/cash down the road? remember the hume/upp bt timah area when it was red hot earlier? those buyers are still stuck today, even after the 2007 boom.

    then look at livia. a 1000sqft apartment was transacting at $720psf. today it's a $100 less. That's $100k paper loss, or an almost 15% fall in valuation in 4 months. sorry lor, $100k is a lot of money to me - i'm poor.

    the fact remains that if i take an 80% loan of a $1m property, if the property drops below $800k valuation, the bank has every right to ask me to top up. they may not be doing that now, but anything is possible in the future if things get really bad. it's already affected sentosa cove, and now starting in core central region properties

    we also know for a fact that top ups of 99 year leases are getting more and more infrequent, and the government is moving to a 75 year leasehold model. also, the latest lease buyback scheme has put a ceiling on the valuation of leasehold properties - soon from purely hdb, it will crossover to pte property valuations.

    Caspian is a con job by heartless developers again. this post best sums it up: http://forums.condosingapore.com/sho...5&postcount=26

    i'm pretty dumb actually, and am as poor as the average joe. but the difference is that i do tons of research to back up what i say

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    aiyo D1 mai kong, there already kalangkapoh. $250 parking, $600 conservancy. 92 year leasehold, every day you hold it depreciates. now the sail studio $700k already can get. your neighbours for next 3-5 years is the construction bangla, dust and mud everywhere.

    Bro.. can intro the studio lobang to me? cos I have a few investor clients going into the sail now to buy and rent out. 1200psf is the best catch now! you solid man can get such good lobangs... I search high and low also cannot get... think slowly you can venture into real estate liao loh... faster sms me the number to call okie... I already missed out the #62 2bdrm deal which was sold @ 1500psf I super liao.. dun wanna lose out again this time round!!!


    Pet

  16. #46
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    I agree with gfoo, there is no reason to buy a 99yr old when there's an abundance of FH and 999 around. Unless of course , you are talking about prime location where there is always developers wanting to enbloc to take advantage of the next cycle.

    But Jurong? ..uh.. too much space there ...

    Anyway, I went down east coast today..
    Wow.. I must say Esta looks pretty good but the downside is imagine the crowd when they all moved in.. *Gulp*.. toO BAD most of the view will be blocked by future silversea and aristo.

    Anyway, most of the price the agent show me today was $800+ .. Only left a 3000+ PH and that was quoted at $1000???

  17. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Petmail
    Bro.. can intro the studio lobang to me? cos I have a few investor clients going into the sail now to buy and rent out. 1200psf is the best catch now! you solid man can get such good lobangs... I search high and low also cannot get... think slowly you can venture into real estate liao loh... sms me the number to call okie...


    Pet
    lol, cannot lah, i am still amateur. saturday's papers, one of the columns - you gotta call. even propguru is listed http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...ail-marina-bay (this is the asking)

    knight frank upcoming auc i think also got 1 from what a contact mentioned

  18. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackswan
    Another example of overpriced D15.
    St Patrick's View enbloc to TG Development in July 2007 for 682psf.
    However, 3 months before they first talk about the enbloc, the price is only 546psf (i.e. that's in April 2007, not too far from the peak/mania of 2007). Now they are pricing the units there around 900-1000psf.

    So can imagine before 2007 before they start the enbloc talk, what price are they only to command around that area. Low 400+???

    hi bro... construction cost leh?

  19. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    lol, cannot lah, i am still amateur. saturday's papers, one of the columns - you gotta call. even propguru is listed http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...ail-marina-bay (this is the asking)

    knight frank upcoming auc i think also got 1 from what a contact mentioned
    I had been calling everyday but to be honest.. most of time are dummy ads... so kinda sianz... i honestly do not mind co-broking with them as long as they really have such listing but mostly to disappointment.. but i come across some good deals by owners for 1500psf.. unfortunately its low floors..

    Anyway.. if you keen to share with someone else and buy a piece of land in d15 siglap area then rebuild as brand new semi-d, let me know cos I have a piece of bungalow size lad that can sub-divide and build 2 semi-d. if not worst to worst I can check with my another client to see if he would like to share buy with you or not...


    Pet

  20. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Petmail
    I had been calling everyday but to be honest.. most of time are dummy ads... so kinda sianz... i honestly do not mind co-broking with them as long as they really have such listing but mostly to disappointment.. but i come across some good deals by owners for 1500psf.. unfortunately its low floors..

    Anyway.. if you keen to share with someone else and buy a piece of land in d15 siglap area then rebuild as brand new semi-d, let me know cos I have a piece of bungalow size lad that can sub-divide and build 2 semi-d. if not worst to worst I can check with my another client to see if he would like to share buy with you or not...


    Pet
    eh i dun mind. i went to figaro today to look at one single storey 3000sqft land area house, v v cheap. you know my cash position and budget lah, lemme know if got lobang

  21. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    lol, cannot lah, i am still amateur. saturday's papers, one of the columns - you gotta call. even propguru is listed http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...ail-marina-bay (this is the asking)

    knight frank upcoming auc i think also got 1 from what a contact mentioned
    gfoo and other expert:

    Condo at west or west cost good to stay?

    those like The Infiniti, Bottania, Carabelle, the Stellar, the Parc Condo. All FH. Which one is better? good investment???

    I'm thinking to get one to stay, but will wait until 4Q09 to make decision. I'm looking for new condo, size about 1100sft with 3 rms, FH, budget $750k+.

    Pls. help help to comment, thanks!

  22. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by noblebaby
    gfoo and other expert:

    Condo at west or west cost good to stay?

    those like The Infiniti, Bottania, Carabelle, the Stellar, the Parc Condo. All FH. Which one is better? good investment???

    I'm thinking to get one to stay, but will wait until 4Q09 to make decision. I'm looking for new condo, size about 1100sft with 3 rms, FH, budget $750k+.

    Pls. help help to comment, thanks!
    personally, i think the current asking of $5xxpsf for west coast area is not too bad, better still if can get mid to high $4XX. the only issue i have is that there is only 1 road leading to infiniti and the others, so might get v v jammed up. try not to get anything facing the highway, v v noisy dey

    case in point, i would rather get infiniti at $5xx than caspian at $5xx

    if you gonna wait till 4Q, then start shopping in 3Q, not now. price might be quite far from today's prices, which i think are still high, but more manageable

  23. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    personally, i think the current asking of $5xxpsf for west coast area is not too bad, better still if can get mid to high $4XX. the only issue i have is that there is only 1 road leading to infiniti and the others, so might get v v jammed up. try not to get anything facing the highway, v v noisy dey

    case in point, i would rather get infiniti at $5xx than caspian at $5xx

    if you gonna wait till 4Q, then start shopping in 3Q, not now. price might be quite far from today's prices, which i think are still high, but more manageable
    thanks gfoo.

    beside west area, which area do you think i should look around that may fit my above criteria?

    I'm looking some area with less traffic, quiet, not far from the public transport, best is far from HDB coz I feel that condo surrounded by HDB is not that exclusive....

  24. #54
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    can I check with you all the launching price of OA/Esta?

    Was it 650psf for the lowest floor? wht's the per floor higher difference?

  25. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by noblebaby
    thanks gfoo.

    beside west area, which area do you think i should look around that may fit my above criteria?

    I'm looking some area with less traffic, quiet, not far from the public transport, best is far from HDB coz I feel that condo surrounded by HDB is not that exclusive....
    lol what's your budget quantum wise? i would love to say grange road but i better tiam tiam, wait pple say i not humble, go corner suck thumb and cry.

    wah lao, i am starting to sound like an agent - shudder.

  26. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    personally, i think the current asking of $5xxpsf for west coast area is not too bad, better still if can get mid to high $4XX. the only issue i have is that there is only 1 road leading to infiniti and the others, so might get v v jammed up. try not to get anything facing the highway, v v noisy dey

    case in point, i would rather get infiniti at $5xx than caspian at $5xx

    if you gonna wait till 4Q, then start shopping in 3Q, not now. price might be quite far from today's prices, which i think are still high, but more manageable
    price at $5xx now? I thought still $6xx or $7xx???

    how about the air condition at west? any issue?

    thanks

  27. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    lol what's your budget quantum wise? i would love to say grange road but i better tiam tiam, wait pple say i not humble, go corner suck thumb and cry.

    wah lao, i am starting to sound like an agent - shudder.
    my budget is $750k lor... unit size 1100sft with 3 rms.

  28. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by noblebaby
    gfoo and other expert:

    Condo at west or west cost good to stay?

    those like The Infiniti, Bottania, Carabelle, the Stellar, the Parc Condo. All FH. Which one is better? good investment???

    I'm thinking to get one to stay, but will wait until 4Q09 to make decision. I'm looking for new condo, size about 1100sft with 3 rms, FH, budget $750k+.

    Pls. help help to comment, thanks!
    West coast sounds more exclusive... you might wanna try looking at botainia & carabelle.. both this year should TOP too..


    Pet

  29. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by noblebaby
    my budget is $750k lor... unit size 1100sft with 3 rms.
    this budget is within guage...


    Pet

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    Quote Originally Posted by Petmail
    West coast sounds more exclusive... you might wanna try looking at botainia & carabelle.. both this year should TOP too..


    Pet
    lol. maybe i should start a collective. each one ante up $1m, we use 10000 sq ft to go build 10 apartments of 2000sqft each, the rest we build a really large swimming pool and gym on the remainder 10000sqft (1.4 plot ratio)

    http://www.propertyguru.com.sg/listi...or-park-estate

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