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Thread: This is scary !! You should read !!!

  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by 8kenshin
    "- 1.5mils HDB flats. 260k private residential units. 66k in pipeline."

    The blind leading the blind....The actual HDB flats is half of this number.
    Do you have the actual figure? I was told it was about 1 private for 4 HDB units. But the number was not used in the discussion.

  2. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by isaaclim
    Do you have the actual figure? I was told it was about 1 private for 4 HDB units. But the number was not used in the discussion.
    I was just a bit surprised that analysis was being done when the numbers were off by 100%.

    The most recent numbers are 838K owned HDB, 46K rental HDB and 241K landed property and private units.

    The average houshold size is 3.4 for HDB (have not seen a figure for private), which is relatively high by world standards. The number has been declining with the slow decline of the three generation household.

  3. #33
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    How do you obtain those figures?

    J-Dog, where do you obtain your figures?

  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by isaaclim
    How do you obtain those figures?

    J-Dog, where do you obtain your figures?
    It is so obvious J-Dog has made up the figures. What's surprising is how did you guys fall for it. I didn't know Singaporeans can be so stupid. Maybe the recession has made their brains stop working.

    How on earth will 40,000 units be completed in 2009? Go and check up URA figures for heaven's sake whici are always on the high side.

  5. #35
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    Good pick-up

    The premise that a bank CEO would call up an analyst to do this type of study is so unlikely, I didn't even bother to read the first line properly.

    DTZ put out a report that actual completions of appoximately 45K units from now to 2013, implying about 20K worth of projects will be put on hold if they are right.

    FWIW, I'm pretty sure prices will continue to come down but whether its the occasional firesale or across the whole market remains to be seen. I thing Ardomer <$1500 in 2009 is quite likely.... whether that goes to a property agent/bank insider or to the open market is the real question.

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    Default 40 000 2009 ??

    Quote Originally Posted by 8kenshin
    Good pick-up

    The premise that a bank CEO would call up an analyst to do this type of study is so unlikely, I didn't even bother to read the first line properly.

    DTZ put out a report that actual completions of appoximately 45K units from now to 2013, implying about 20K worth of projects will be put on hold if they are right.

    FWIW, I'm pretty sure prices will continue to come down but whether its the occasional firesale or across the whole market remains to be seen. I thing Ardomer <$1500 in 2009 is quite likely.... whether that goes to a property agent/bank insider or to the open market is the real question.

    i agree that 40000 units are spread over a few years ...looking at past record ..on a bull property year ..we were only able to complete 15000 units in a year ... and on a low year, its 8000 units ...

    not forgetting that there are so many project going on at one time .. plus developers slowing down ..making for use of the TOP allowable period..the actually number of completed units maybe alot lower ...in an afford to 'create' a shortage scenario ...thats my feeling

  7. #37
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    Cool... This thread was started with 100k of access.
    After budget 2009, everything is reversed. Now we are going to face "Shortage"...

    Great!!! Hurrah Budget 2009

  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by isaaclim
    Cool... This thread was started with 100k of access.
    After budget 2009, everything is reversed. Now we are going to face "Shortage"...

    Great!!! Hurrah Budget 2009
    i am not saying there will be a shortage, but that 40k units to be completed by 2009 is way too high ...

    if you notice, in the past , every project, on its launch, always have the TOP 3-4 yrs but always complete in 2-2.5yrs...

    now some project are stretching, using the full 3-4 yrs ...that to me is 'delaying' and if you have bought a unit at launch and expect to move in in 2 yrs time, then you may end up having to 'rent' some place first as the TOP can be 3yrs instead ...

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by focus
    So how about a family that only want a $1.5m property but with a bank account that can pay in full many times over? How come they give 70% LTV? My coupon/dividend payments yearly (if taxable as an individual) is in the highest income bracket. Even if they discount the coupon/dividend payments in half, it is still in the highest income bracket.
    I am sure you have more than 3 properties? yeah? otherwise they would not have capped you at 70%
    Mortgage Advisory and Brokering Services
    http://www.cpcgonline.com

  10. #40
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    Would it be fair to say that, by 3rd Quarter 2009. There will be heaps of apartments/HDB available for sale in the market? The way I look at it, is how the hell could we justify such high prices in 2006/2007 when the average joe could barely afford a 600psf unit during 2005. Real income has not risen enough to justify the jump in property price. Obviously, the boom in prices can be attributed to speculation.

  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zeng Han Jun
    I am sure you have more than 3 properties? yeah? otherwise they would not have capped you at 70%
    Even if it's 3 properties in prime district, the debt/equity ratio is at most 50% of my equity base.

    They are restricting because my family is not working and no one have an income except the recurrent coupons/dividends from the investment portfolio. So I am flabberghasted that we are more credit worthy than most working professionals and yet those professionals can get 80% LTV?

    The reason why I am trying to get as much loan as possible is because the money can be put to better use in stocks/bonds.

  12. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by J-Dog
    One of the Bank's CEO and developer got together to analise the current property market and do some calculation and short term forecast. This is what they have got :

    - 40,000 units coming into the market in year 2009
    - for the whole month of December only 300+ units sold for entire Singapore
    - Banks are not landing , only ppl with over 30% cash deposits and over 200k annual wages now have the chance to get a mortgage providing the property below valuation.
    - Rental plummeting and expats downgrading or running away from Singapore
    - towards the mid 09' default's rate to reach almost 50% for those who bought on DPS
    - prime areas are 30 to 70% down for the last 6 month

    their summarised and got extreme competition among those 40,000 units owners and very limited numbers of tenants will lead to massive freefall of property prices after March-April bottoming in June-August

    Government has to intervent the market or it will be the whole nation going into bankrupcy.

    Average prices to be expected in May - June by Condos according to their calculations:

    Ardmore 2 - $1300 psf
    St. Regis - $1,200 psf
    Cosmopolitan - $900 psf
    Rivergate - $800 psf
    MBR - $1,000 psf
    Oceanfront and The Coasts $700 psf ( this one one of the worth hit , with no tenants willing to stay that far away and crazy high maintenance of excess of $1000 per month, hours of morning traffic jams and no shops and facilities apart from overpriced One 15 no fools want to buy these units and their on DPS , most owners have less then a year to settle and ma ny of them have 0 liquidity in the bank where banks valuation on those going down everyday so there will be very limited financing)

    It could be a good time to short sell to buy again at much lower price towards the end of the year in around August to recoup some losses.

    This is about time for the Government to entervene but there is no sign of them doing that on the horizon..
    Any updates on this? How come the outlook was so bad?

  13. #43
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    Quote Originally Posted by kingkong1984
    Any updates on this? How come the outlook was so bad?
    None of it came true. The End

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    just got an email back from bankers whom i submitted a valuation list for property price indicators, even before i submit any of my income docs.

    Beacon Edge: $750psf must try, will be hard
    Ola: $850-900 fair price
    One Amber: $800 fair price
    The Rochester: bank will not consider $1000psf, far below that

    and this is just january
    One Amber owners wonch be very happy with you

  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by dtrax
    None of it came true. The End
    Frightening movie.... akan datang.

  16. #46
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    teddybear is offline Global recession is coming....
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    That writer 'J-Dog' had a castration ceremony after betting his 'little brother' on it. He won't appear again. Obviously, what he said is just to scare people and none materialized. Anybody who listened to him and waiting for that price some probably you already saw in the news - jumping in front of the MRT train, jumping from high-rise flats, found floating in the kallang river etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by kingkong1984
    Any updates on this? How come the outlook was so bad?

  17. #47
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    tats the best period in my whole life so far

  18. #48
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    Luckily you didn't listen to him although he appeared so 100% sure that property prices will crash below what he mentioned (with bankers backing him up as well)! Even without buying at the price he mentioned, if a person bought Ardmore II 2024 sqft at $1600 psf (transacted price at that time), he would be able to sell now at >=$2900 psf or a profit of COOL >=$2.63m !
    Now even OCR also selling/sold at $1300 psf!

    Quote Originally Posted by devilplate
    tats the best period in my whole life so far

  19. #49
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    i once tracked that 1600psf ardmore II buyer. he sold at 1800 the next month or so hahaha.

    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Luckily you didn't listen to him although he appeared so 100% sure that property prices will crash below what he mentioned (with bankers backing him up as well)! Even without buying at the price he mentioned, if a person bought Ardmore II 2024 sqft at $1600 psf (transacted price at that time), he would be able to sell now at >=$2900 psf or a profit of COOL >=$2.63m !
    Now even OCR also selling/sold at $1300 psf!

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    Quote Originally Posted by teddybear
    Luckily you didn't listen to him although he appeared so 100% sure that property prices will crash below what he mentioned (with bankers backing him up as well)! Even without buying at the price he mentioned, if a person bought Ardmore II 2024 sqft at $1600 psf (transacted price at that time), he would be able to sell now at >=$2900 psf or a profit of COOL >=$2.63m !
    Now even OCR also selling/sold at $1300 psf!
    Well... Never take advice blindly from forum.

  21. #51
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    Thats why I always advocate posting facts for discussion.

    Recently, I noted a disturbing trend. There are really many many developments obtaining TOP within the last 6-9 mths AND there are many many more going to obtain TOP within the next 6-9 mths. The billion dollar question is : Will the rental market be able to support this increase ?

    Below are just some developments I notice in the above category.

    Please feel free to add (or delete if I am incorrect) :

    Lumiere (TOP)
    One Shenton (going to TOP)
    The Clift (going to TOP)
    The Arte (TOP)
    Dakota Residences (TOP)
    Marina Bay Residences (TOP)
    M21 (TOP)
    Southbank (TOP)
    Casa Fortuna (going to TOP)
    St Thomas Suites (TOP)
    Soleil (going to TOP)
    Zedge (going to TOP)
    Trillium (going to TOP)
    Tribeca (TOP)
    Sky @ Eleven (TOP)
    The Linc (?? - The on along Newton Road) (going to TOP)
    City Vista (someone help me here - TOP?)
    The Marq (going to TOP) (but maybe this one is not relevant)
    Orchard ION
    Riverine
    One Amber
    Aalto
    Latitude

    I guess there are people here more familiar with the market and can double this list ?

    For our factual discussion,
    DKSG

  22. #52
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    how much is considered too much?

    not easy to come up with a conclusion jus based on TOP units...

    oversupply story is always there during gd times....

    market gd, more enblocs, more units gona build, oversupply in future....

  23. #53
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    It is too hard to tell. Some think 5000 units TOP is a lot. But some think 5000 is under supply. You have to think about the demand factor. On average, it is 8000 units. But that is on average. Maybe recession 3000 units, boom 14,000 units. So no one can tell. I can only tell you STI is going up

    I mean, look at the first post. Many agree. But what happened? Too hard to tell, too hard to predict.



    Quote Originally Posted by DKSG
    Thats why I always advocate posting facts for discussion.

    Recently, I noted a disturbing trend. There are really many many developments obtaining TOP within the last 6-9 mths AND there are many many more going to obtain TOP within the next 6-9 mths. The billion dollar question is : Will the rental market be able to support this increase ?

    Below are just some developments I notice in the above category.

    Please feel free to add (or delete if I am incorrect) :

    Lumiere (TOP)
    One Shenton (going to TOP)
    The Clift (going to TOP)
    The Arte (TOP)
    Dakota Residences (TOP)
    Marina Bay Residences (TOP)
    M21 (TOP)
    Southbank (TOP)
    Casa Fortuna (going to TOP)
    St Thomas Suites (TOP)
    Soleil (going to TOP)
    Zedge (going to TOP)
    Trillium (going to TOP)
    Tribeca (TOP)
    Sky @ Eleven (TOP)
    The Linc (?? - The on along Newton Road) (going to TOP)
    City Vista (someone help me here - TOP?)
    The Marq (going to TOP) (but maybe this one is not relevant)
    Orchard ION
    Riverine
    One Amber
    Aalto
    Latitude

    I guess there are people here more familiar with the market and can double this list ?

    For our factual discussion,
    DKSG

  24. #54
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    That`s why you should invest your hard-earned money for condos which are located in area that have the demand in good time and bad time as well.
    something like one just beside MRT or beside good school at least you beat other competitors. Location, Location, Location!!

  25. #55
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    At least this year is a riskier year to buy than last year. Govt did a good job with the timing of the cooling measures. At least if any fallout it's deferred and contained. I think it's about right time to let go in resale market. Pay increase more bonus

  26. #56
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    Depends. In FEb/Mar last year, it is seen risker. Not by me, but by banks and all the analysts. Why?

    Now, analysts predict prices rise more slowly
    Last year March, analysts predict 10% drop for 2009.




    Quote Originally Posted by Komo
    At least this year is a riskier year to buy than last year. Govt did a good job with the timing of the cooling measures. At least if any fallout it's deferred and contained. I think it's about right time to let go in resale market. Pay increase more bonus

  27. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Squall8888
    It is too hard to tell. Some think 5000 units TOP is a lot. But some think 5000 is under supply. You have to think about the demand factor. On average, it is 8000 units. But that is on average. Maybe recession 3000 units, boom 14,000 units. So no one can tell. I can only tell you STI is going up

    I mean, look at the first post. Many agree. But what happened? Too hard to tell, too hard to predict.
    8000 units is for brand new TOP? How about those existing condo units in the market that are also ready for offer too? Recently my company just renewed our lease for a 3 bedder in Queens. Previously was $4,800 pm. This year we got it renewed at $3,300 only. All we need to do is to tell the landlord that we are looking for somewhere else and she immediately chop her price without us even securing a place elsewhere first! What happens next is history.

  28. #58
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    lucky you that your landlord isn't tracking rental in the suburban market. a good HDB around queens probably can be tenanted for $2700. you can free security, pool and parking at $3300.

    your gain, her loss.

  29. #59
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    Quote Originally Posted by kane
    lucky you that your landlord isn't tracking rental in the suburban market. a good HDB around queens probably can be tenanted for $2700. you can free security, pool and parking at $3300.

    your gain, her loss.
    Any idea what was the launch PSF price for Queens? I reckoned that the lady feels that even at 3,300 pm she still got some yield this is much better than letting it be empty while waiting for the next fish to be baited.

  30. #60
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    Your landlord/landlady is not very property savvy. Maybe the revised rent is still able to cover her mortgage (low interest) and other miscellaneous fees.

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