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Thread: D15 Apt Status vs Condo Status

  1. #1
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    Default D15 Apt Status vs Condo Status

    Hi all, am in the market for a 3 bedder for own stay.
    Hv been going around and doing a lot of research, and i do need some advice. Here's my take:
    1. Esta & One Amber although have hundreds of units, their land area and facilities are big. Pricing is close reaching launch price. Will there be further downside in 3 months? (NB the Sail is already reaching 1000psf)
    2. Private apartment status like Beacon Edge, Tierra etc are so cramped, it's really not a joke. They are averaging $550-800psf, but have ridiculous site layouts, and pathetic slivers of 'swimming' pools. These are more affordable quantum wise but are the worth it? e.g. Was close to confirming Beacon Edge from a beautiful site plan, but when i went into the construction site, my god, it was so cramped you can spit across the pool to the neighbour's PES. They're asking for $780psf - what a joke. Those that bought it at the launch price of $1200-1300psf are burning right now - idiots.
    3. So far the best layout/density is Ola residences which touts itself 'condo status' - riiiight. But the asking is $1080, which is like $50 bucks away from October 08 transaction. Ridiculous.
    4. Historically apartments have always been priced lower than condos due to lack of facilities. Why issit that today's (buy-2-old-terrace-build-one-apt) apartments fetch almost 20% above competing condos in the area?
    I'm getting v tired viewing properties and researching, especially when developers are still not grounded to reality, esp those projects launched 2007. Here's my prediction for end 1Q2009, and what i think is fair pricing:

    One Amber/Esta: $700psf
    Ola Residences: $680psf
    The Beacon Edge: $600psf
    The Sail: $880psf

    What you guys think? comments welcome, need advice whether to buy now, wait 6 months, or wait till 2010.

    PS: Another thought - almost all the apartment status launches and developments are marketed by the Huttons/Savills cartel - could this be the reason that prices are still being 'set' beyond market reality? thanks in advance

    (I know there are tons of Huttons/Savills agents in this forum so i'm not flaming you guys, rather i am trying to get clarity for my next purchase)
    Last edited by gfoo; 12-01-09 at 12:57.

  2. #2
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    I entirely agree with yoiur forecast with exception of sail, do not think it will go below 1000 psf for the worst unit,

    I highly recommend Cote d azur in the east and richmond park in D9,

    Good luck......

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    Quote Originally Posted by condoinvestor
    I entirely agree with yoiur forecast with exception of sail, do not think it will go below 1000 psf for the worst unit,

    I highly recommend Cote d azur in the east and richmond park in D9,

    Good luck......
    True, the Sail is v hard to predict. I put it at $880 coz i'm hearing some very funny things from bankers about the bay area, and especially sentosa cove. e.g. out of the 1100 units at the sail, there are now on the market 780 listings for rents as of Jan 09. even if you discount 25% double counting, that's still almost half the project still not rented out. soon some of these investors might have to let go - then again, i could be wrong. hard to predict that area lah - for e.g. look at Icon in 05....everyone thought it sucked then out of nowhere boomtowncharlie

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    True, the Sail is v hard to predict. I put it at $880 coz i'm hearing some very funny things from bankers about the bay area, and especially sentosa cove. e.g. out of the 1100 units at the sail, there are now on the market 780 listings for rents as of Jan 09. even if you discount 25% double counting, that's still almost half the project still not rented out. soon some of these investors might have to let go - then again, i could be wrong. hard to predict that area lah - for e.g. look at Icon in 05....everyone thought it sucked then out of nowhere boomtowncharlie
    This is gloomy times, but interesting in some aspects.
    1. Many big developers learned their lessons from past downturns and now have ample cash reserves to tide them over next 1-2 years. Some choose rental, some choose slowing development....
    2. Many developers now have their own deferred payment scheme with bank 5% cash + 15% cash/cpf and no installment till TOP. Many buyers biting...
    3. Most buyers also have cash reserves to tide them over. No doubt some speculators are burnt...

    The most important puzzle piece here to upset the balance are those people who committed to original deferred payment plan property. If a sizeable number can't get loan, then price collapse is imminent. However, I am more inclined to think that bank will lend, albeit cautiously. By not lending, the impact from fallout is dire...

    I am waiting also. Tan Ku Ku liao. But if prices were to clash to those suggested in this thread, I am afraid I will be out of job by then...

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    1. Many big developers learned their lessons from past downturns and now have ample cash reserves to tide them over next 1-2 years. Some choose rental, some choose slowing development....

    Agreed, but this applies to only some of the very big, e.g. FEO. those mid tier and smaller developers, esp those that have huge exposure to DPS like UOL etc have huge short term debt that if it's not rolled over, chialat. Even FEO: i went to orchard scotts see showflat - they claim one entire block was to be serviced apartments, occupational rate quite low lor. no wonder have to lelong the other 2 blocks at 1800psf

    2. Many developers now have their own deferred payment scheme with bank 5% cash + 15% cash/cpf and no installment till TOP. Many buyers biting...

    Some banks have sent out circulars not to encourage this in 2009. Buyers biting? not by the Nov-Jan transactions. Don't refer to one-off projects like Jewel Chuan Hoe etc, they were priced fairly thus did well.

    3. Most buyers also have cash reserves to tide them over. No doubt some speculators are burnt...

    Depends. Foreign and corporate buyers purely go by P&L. If dun make sense, they will immediately write down. When things get worse, expect next quarterly earnings in April, a lot of them will let go. Also, many international schools now begging for places - companies have stopped expat terms. I know, my expat finance friend is trying to sell numerous units before US CFO breathes down his neck.


    The most important puzzle piece here to upset the balance are those people who committed to original deferred payment plan property. If a sizeable number can't get loan, then price collapse is imminent. However, I am more inclined to think that bank will lend, albeit cautiously. By not lending, the impact from fallout is dire...

    Yes bank will lend, but only at valuation. E.g. The Rochester launch DPS about $1000-$1300. Now got pple lelong loft unit at $960psf. sure kena. There are many more such cases.

    What is worse - banks in 2009 are starting to ask for top ups. This is confirmed for most of Sentosa Cove properties, and some Orchard Road.

    I am waiting also. Tan Ku Ku liao. But if prices were to clash to those suggested in this thread, I am afraid I will be out of job by then...

    Hope you and all in this forum will be ok. But the reality is that thousands are losing their jobs, esp after CNY (Halimah Yacob just said today at least 2000 more jobs to be gone imm after CNY). The rank and file kena retrenched, means less money to buy stuff and services, means business owners kena affected.

    The last hammer to drop will be delays in TOP and deferred projects. This happened with Silversea, luckily impact small. this is rampant in commercial property now. Imagine you book and pay 20% now, and developer defers completion (this happened in 1980s mind you, and our recession today is worse than the 80s). That's why i am scared to get those 2011 or 2012 TOP properties. Coz their date of legal completion is 2015/2016, which means that legally, they can stretch all the way there without having to even announce 'deferment'

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    True, the Sail is v hard to predict. I put it at $880 coz i'm hearing some very funny things from bankers about the bay area, and especially sentosa cove. e.g. out of the 1100 units at the sail, there are now on the market 780 listings for rents as of Jan 09. even if you discount 25% double counting, that's still almost half the project still not rented out. soon some of these investors might have to let go - then again, i could be wrong. hard to predict that area lah - for e.g. look at Icon in 05....everyone thought it sucked then out of nowhere boomtowncharlie
    Somehow heard the same magic number that you mention for The Sail from other sources too.........is it true???? Wait till around end of Q2 whereby I believe there will be a lot of Bank sales and things will be crystal clear.

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    The market is correcting , but not at the same pace with financial , commercial and industrial sector as of now. Due to the following reason:

    (1) Property market has 6months lacking effect over the general economic performance. It will properly reflected in Apr to June 09.

    (2) Property TOP in current or previous quarter mostly bought during end 05 or early 06 with deferred payment scheme. The price could be 50% discount as compared to the peak during Nov 07. Most of these units still above water. I donít foresee these owner has any issue getting home loan and finance the home loan with rental income later. They are safe now.

    For those units TOP in last quarter 09 are mostly bought during early 07 till mid 07. The real price correction will start mid 09 (3 months before TOP) coupled with point (1)

    (3) Interest rate is still low , owner can still manage to finance their loan even with reduction of rental. Coupled with point (1) , residential demand will be low due to departure of foreign talents.


    I foresee sharp price reduction will be coming after mid 09. Remember everything going up fast and steep with drop sharp and quick. Nobody can know the lowest it can go before hand. Donít be stupid enough to predict . Great man think alike , fools are not indifferent too.




    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    1. Many big developers learned their lessons from past downturns and now have ample cash reserves to tide them over next 1-2 years. Some choose rental, some choose slowing development....

    Agreed, but this applies to only some of the very big, e.g. FEO. those mid tier and smaller developers, esp those that have huge exposure to DPS like UOL etc have huge short term debt that if it's not rolled over, chialat. Even FEO: i went to orchard scotts see showflat - they claim one entire block was to be serviced apartments, occupational rate quite low lor. no wonder have to lelong the other 2 blocks at 1800psf

    2. Many developers now have their own deferred payment scheme with bank 5% cash + 15% cash/cpf and no installment till TOP. Many buyers biting...

    Some banks have sent out circulars not to encourage this in 2009. Buyers biting? not by the Nov-Jan transactions. Don't refer to one-off projects like Jewel Chuan Hoe etc, they were priced fairly thus did well.

    3. Most buyers also have cash reserves to tide them over. No doubt some speculators are burnt...

    Depends. Foreign and corporate buyers purely go by P&L. If dun make sense, they will immediately write down. When things get worse, expect next quarterly earnings in April, a lot of them will let go. Also, many international schools now begging for places - companies have stopped expat terms. I know, my expat finance friend is trying to sell numerous units before US CFO breathes down his neck.


    The most important puzzle piece here to upset the balance are those people who committed to original deferred payment plan property. If a sizeable number can't get loan, then price collapse is imminent. However, I am more inclined to think that bank will lend, albeit cautiously. By not lending, the impact from fallout is dire...

    Yes bank will lend, but only at valuation. E.g. The Rochester launch DPS about $1000-$1300. Now got pple lelong loft unit at $960psf. sure kena. There are many more such cases.

    What is worse - banks in 2009 are starting to ask for top ups. This is confirmed for most of Sentosa Cove properties, and some Orchard Road.

    I am waiting also. Tan Ku Ku liao. But if prices were to clash to those suggested in this thread, I am afraid I will be out of job by then...

    Hope you and all in this forum will be ok. But the reality is that thousands are losing their jobs, esp after CNY (Halimah Yacob just said today at least 2000 more jobs to be gone imm after CNY). The rank and file kena retrenched, means less money to buy stuff and services, means business owners kena affected.

    The last hammer to drop will be delays in TOP and deferred projects. This happened with Silversea, luckily impact small. this is rampant in commercial property now. Imagine you book and pay 20% now, and developer defers completion (this happened in 1980s mind you, and our recession today is worse than the 80s). That's why i am scared to get those 2011 or 2012 TOP properties. Coz their date of legal completion is 2015/2016, which means that legally, they can stretch all the way there without having to even announce 'deferment'

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    'nuff said. What this guys says is very consistent to what i have heard from banker friends this morn.

    http://forums.condosingapore.com/showthread.php?p=42323#post42323

    One of the Bank's CEO and developer got together to analise the current property market and do some calculation and short term forecast. This is what they have got :

    - 40,000 units coming into the market in year 2009
    - for the whole month of December only 300+ units sold for entire Singapore
    - Banks are not landing , only ppl with over 30% cash deposits and over 200k annual wages now have the chance to get a mortgage providing the property below valuation.
    - Rental plummeting and expats downgrading or running away from Singapore
    - towards the mid 09' default's rate to reach almost 50% for those who bought on DPS
    - prime areas are 30 to 70% down for the last 6 month

    their summarised and got extreme competition among those 40,000 units owners and very limited numbers of tenants will lead to massive freefall of property prices after March-April bottoming in June-August

    Government has to intervent the market or it will be the whole nation going into bankrupcy.

    Average prices to be expected in May - June by Condos according to their calculations:

    Ardmore 2 - $1300 psf
    St. Regis - $1,200 psf
    Cosmopolitan - $900 psf
    Rivergate - $800 psf
    MBR - $1,000 psf
    Oceanfront and The Coasts $700 psf ( this one one of the worth hit , with no tenants willing to stay that far away and crazy high maintenance of excess of $1000 per month, hours of morning traffic jams and no shops and facilities apart from overpriced One 15 no fools want to buy these units and their on DPS , most owners have less then a year to settle and ma ny of them have 0 liquidity in the bank where banks valuation on those going down everyday so there will be very limited financing)

    It could be a good time to short sell to buy again at much lower price towards the end of the year in around August to recoup some losses.

    This is about time for the Government to entervene but there is no sign of them doing that on the horizon..

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    To gfoo, what sort of price point are you looking at ? No, am not an agent. Think now is good time to scout for places you want to buy and watching the prices.

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    Quote Originally Posted by pegasus
    To gfoo, what sort of price point are you looking at ? No, am not an agent. Think now is good time to scout for places you want to buy and watching the prices.
    That's the problem i face - i don't even know how to offer. i've been scouting since november. EVERY 2 weeks, the price for the same area drops bit by bit, some more than others. Agents will tell me - 'dun worry lah, not about money - you and wife like the place most important, scout around too much will only confuse you'

    But if i hadn't scouted around, i would have put a deposit on a place in Nov 15% more than its asking price now. Imagine if it drops another 15% in a couple of months - sooner or later what if the banks ask me to top up like what they are doing for luxe properties?

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    Quote Originally Posted by gfoo
    That's the problem i face - i don't even know how to offer. i've been scouting since november. EVERY 2 weeks, the price for the same area drops bit by bit, some more than others. Agents will tell me - 'dun worry lah, not about money - you and wife like the place most important, scout around too much will only confuse you'

    But if i hadn't scouted around, i would have put a deposit on a place in Nov 15% more than its asking price now. Imagine if it drops another 15% in a couple of months - sooner or later what if the banks ask me to top up like what they are doing for luxe properties?

    haha.. lucky those units i recommended to you never drop anymore... lolz


    Pet

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    Quote Originally Posted by Petmail
    haha.. lucky those units i recommended to you never drop anymore... lolz


    Pet
    lol. jewel of course not, completely sold out mah - that was priced well. NE just launched, we shall see.

    Eh talk some sense into the developers leh, else everybody will continue to sit on the sidelines

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    Gfoo,
    It's hard to buy something at the absolute lowest point. You need to have some luck for that.

    I have a budget too for a condo and have starting looking around. If you need a loan, you need to line that up first so that you know what is the max you can offer.

    Personally, I think if prices go back to 2006 level eg $850k for a brand new FH 3 BDR (1,300 sq ft) in east coast, that would be a good entry point. To hope the price would drop to $600k for the same unit would be wishful thinking. Of course, there are older units which may be cheaper which one can also consider.

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    agreed, 850k for 1300sf for condo status sounds fair. 600k should be apartment status as technically you are buying airspace, no groundspace for facilities

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    Default 650 psf?!

    Quote Originally Posted by pegasus
    Gfoo,
    It's hard to buy something at the absolute lowest point. You need to have some luck for that.

    I have a budget too for a condo and have starting looking around. If you need a loan, you need to line that up first so that you know what is the max you can offer.

    Personally, I think if prices go back to 2006 level eg $850k for a brand new FH 3 BDR (1,300 sq ft) in east coast, that would be a good entry point. To hope the price would drop to $600k for the same unit would be wishful thinking. Of course, there are older units which may be cheaper which one can also consider.
    $850k for a brand new FH 3 BDR (1,300 sq ft) in east coast = $650 psf. Currently the newly TOP project like Esta are still holding up strongly. the avg price is $850 psf instead of $650 psf.

    As previous post mentioned, those owner bought at 600-700 psf during launch, even rental as low as $3000 can easily cover their monthly installment + mthly maintenance fee + property tax.

    I don't see any reason they can't hold up.... unless the owner lost job, need cash badly, then some units may go to market for fire sales. otherwise, when will Esta (or Sea View / One Amber/...) drop to $650 psf?

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    I bought a 3BDR in One Amber during the preview and have looked at Esta and Seaview at that time. So I have some idea of the price range then.
    Personally, a 3BDR is meant for, say, a 4-unit family nucleus. So for 1 or 2 working adults to pay for > S$1 mn for such a unit is, I think, a material psychological barrier.
    But then again, different people have different view points and expectations as to what price point is reasonable and different savings level/debt service capacity. Especially so now when banks have tightened lending.

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    hi gfoo,

    Sorry to have interrupted, somehow, I guess i will probably need to clarify certain issues pertaining to project launching by our company. If you have also realised that there are in fact still quite a number of projects that KF, PN, OT, CBRE, ERA, , HSR, DTZ, etc are also marketing in the market. somehow the number of projects that they are marketing is probably not within the same territory that you do not really get to see much or that there are in actual fact that they do not have very much launching projects also. There were earlier launched projects by some of our competitors in the market and some were somehow delayed in their launching due to certain reasons whether or not were the decisions by them or their developers. This of course were not for me to comment further. if you do really see their signages, you may just wanna drop them a courtesy call to check what are their launching prices telling them you wanna buy a unit from them now and you decide later to see if their prices are within the Fair Market Value in the current market sentiment. As far as all projects launched by Huttons, I personally think that the price launched are all within a Fair Market Value range which were also being supported by the banks concerned. Developers have their pricing concern against their individual P&L as well which is not up for us to comment. if you think the projects being launched by Huttons are not within Fair Market Value then conclude it probably after your enquiries from the rest of the other marketing agents concerned.

    If you look at the property market concerned, resale & projects under construction are two different categories. resale are immediate which is very much influenced by market adjustment, individual owners' motivation in selling or rental acceptance, etc. on the other hand, projects under construction are not direct influenced by the CURRENT market sentiment due to comparison only being effective after the TOP of them. ie to say that whenever you are buying projects under construction, you should be buying future prices when it is TOP rather than a direct comparison into today's market trend and sentiment. rental as well takes effect on that basis. as long as the project is not TOP, market situation should not have great impact on these projects unless buyers chooses to sell them at the price they choose to sell. it was previously pretty tough to deter the market influence into projects under construction due to the deferred payment scheme. eversince the withdrawal of such scheme to protect the interest of the buyers, this has improved and helped the property market in Singapore much better otherwise, I seriously just cannot imagine what would Singapore turn into in terms of real estate is concerned and i dun deny the fact that Singapore may also soon follow the United States into a similar Sub-Prime issue as well.

    However, it seems that most people are taking comparison on these two different scenarios as one that it just seems to slowly look like one,.. but it is still come as two different ones.... if you do look at the BTO, DBSS, EC, etc.. its pretty similar just that they are of a different category, but then nobody seems to go after HDB and complained that they are over pricing and selling crazy price while our country is currently under recession.

    I am sure after my comments above, more flames will coming after me.. Nevertheless, I do still welcome constructive feedbacks and comments.



    Pet
    Last edited by Petmail; 15-01-09 at 04:57.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Petmail
    hi gfoo,

    Sorry to have interrupted, somehow, I guess i will probably need to clarify certain issues pertaining to project launching by our company. If you have also realised that there are in fact still quite a number of projects that KF, PN, OT, CBRE, ERA, , HSR, DTZ, etc are also marketing in the market. somehow the number of projects that they are marketing is probably not within the same territory that you do not really get to see much or that there are in actual fact that they do not have very much launching projects also. There were earlier launched projects by some of our competitors in the market and some were somehow delayed in their launching due to certain reasons whether or not were the decisions by them or their developers. This of course were not for me to comment further. if you do really see their signages, you may just wanna drop them a courtesy call to check what are their launching prices telling them you wanna buy a unit from them now and you decide later to see if their prices are within the Fair Market Value in the current market sentiment. As far as all projects launched by Huttons, I personally think that the price launched are all within a Fair Market Value range which were also being supported by the banks concerned. Developers have their pricing concern against their individual P&L as well which is not up for us to comment. if you think the projects being launched by Huttons are not within Fair Market Value then conclude it probably after your enquiries from the rest of the other marketing agents concerned.

    If you look at the property market concerned, resale & projects under construction are two different categories. resale are immediate which is very much influenced by market adjustment, individual owners' motivation in selling or rental acceptance, etc. on the other hand, projects under construction are not direct influenced by the CURRENT market sentiment due to comparison only being effective after the TOP of them. ie to say that whenever you are buying projects under construction, you should be buying future prices when it is TOP rather than a direct comparison into today's market trend and sentiment. rental as well takes effect on that basis. as long as the project is not TOP, market situation should not have great impact on these projects unless buyers chooses to sell them at the price they choose to sell. it was previously pretty tough to deter the market influence into projects under construction due to the deferred payment scheme. eversince the withdrawal of such scheme to protect the interest of the buyers, this has improved and helped the property market in Singapore much better otherwise, I seriously just cannot imagine what would Singapore turn into in terms of real estate is concerned and i dun deny the fact that Singapore may also soon follow the United States into a similar Sub-Prime issue as well.

    However, it seems that most people are taking comparison on these two different scenarios as one that it just seems to slowly look like one,.. but it is still come as two different ones.... if you do look at the BTO, DBSS, EC, etc.. its pretty similar just that they are of a different category, but then nobody seems to go after HDB and complained that they are over pricing and selling crazy price while our country is currently under recession.

    I am sure after my comments above, more flames will coming after me.. Nevertheless, I do still welcome constructive feedbacks and comments.



    Pet
    You have an interesting comment that projects in construction is based on future scenarios and indeed, most people are of the opinion that in the next few years, starting 2010, there will be huge oversupply of condo vs demand and for that reason alone, all projects are still grossly over-priced.

    However, I beg to differ that projects under construction does not need to look at current market value because if given a choice, I would rather get a just TOP resale/ subsale unit since I can view the actual unit AND collect immediate rental. Gone are tha days of DPS, and I applaud that, and since the upfront cash is the same, if it can be rented out to cover the loan installments, I would most certainly prefer it over projects under construction. Thus your argument doesnt stand and developers must look at current prices, including resale.

    One observation i have about huttons are the projects they market are usually for the 2nd tier developers and the quality and design also appears to be inferior to other developers.

    One eg is Newton Edge. I was shocked to hear that the developer actually choose to maximise its profits by building a huge detach house (9000 sqf??) in the small plot of land of apts. I think other developers would just do a clubhse or other facilities instead of squeezing every juice out of the land possible for sale. This reflects how greedy developers are. And I have not even started how small the units in Newton Edge are, as rightly mentioned by some other forummers here. I wonder if the 80% of buyers of NE realised what they are getting even if they thought its for investment and thus will not have to stay in it. But trust me, there will be plenty of projects that are more spacious in that area and these buyers will have to either lower their rental incomparison with other projects are just have to leave their units vacant.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Petmail
    As far as all projects launched by Huttons, I personally think that the price launched are all within a Fair Market Value range which were also being supported by the banks concerned. Developers have their pricing concern against their individual P&L as well which is not up for us to comment. if you think the projects being launched by Huttons are not within Fair Market Value then conclude it probably after your enquiries from the rest of the other marketing agents concerned.

    If you look at the property market concerned, resale & projects under construction are two different categories. resale are immediate which is very much influenced by market adjustment, individual owners' motivation in selling or rental acceptance, etc. on the other hand, projects under construction are not direct influenced by the CURRENT market sentiment due to comparison only being effective after the TOP of them. ie to say that whenever you are buying projects under construction, you should be buying future prices when it is TOP rather than a direct comparison into today's market trend and sentiment. rental as well takes effect on that basis. as long as the project is not TOP, market situation should not have great impact on these projects unless buyers chooses to sell them at the price they choose to sell. it was previously pretty tough to deter the market influence into projects under construction due to the deferred payment scheme. eversince the withdrawal of such scheme to protect the interest of the buyers, this has improved and helped the property market in Singapore much better otherwise, I seriously just cannot imagine what would Singapore turn into in terms of real estate is concerned and i dun deny the fact that Singapore may also soon follow the United States into a similar Sub-Prime issue as well.
    Hey Pet, amongst all the agents i've met, you remain one that i will highly recommend to all - you do your homework, know your product and market, and run through hoops for your clients with the highest integrity. Thus when i speak, i do not address you personally, rather the market as a whole.

    In defence of Huttons/Savills - yes they typically do smaller boutique projects due to their positioning, and some are of high quality, some poorer. The 'successes' of Huttons in 3-4Q08 has spurred many developers to relaunch with them as developers think Huttons can move at higher prices. That's pure economics, but not necessarily a good thing for buyers.

    Home prices should be set by and large through current transactions. Let's say I stay at telok kurau, and if lorongs n and m got some fella sell 25% above market, then if i wanna sell i will start to price around there ; so will my neighbours, and the whole area moves up. New developments will be pitched at that 25% price increase as well.

    But if some fella sells 25% below market, I will hold and try my luck to see if can still sell at previous price - hold out as long as i can until buay tahan. That's why you'll find that new developments will not go down in tandem, and developers/agent will make comparisons to 2007/early 2008 prices and how cheap things are now. mana ada logik?

    Pricing new projects TOPing in 2-3 years higher than already TOPed or 1-2yr old projects is flawed. Buyers of TOP 2-3yrs projects have to assume risk and price fluctuations, and in this downmarket, it is an almost certainty that if buyers buy now, in 2 years prices will be lower. Historically this has always been so during the start of downturns. Why buy now and subsidize developers? you not only take the risk of lowering prices - but if the developer cannot even breakeven (prob 40-60% must be sold and held on), then TOP may be delayed. One big fear in today's market is that even the 5% deposit buyers might even forego. Then developers are stuck even more as banks cannot release monies.

    But are developers pricing fairly yet? not really. they use creative marketing like 30% off - when actually it's 25% off the peak, another 5% via interest absorption etc. How can you compare 25% off peak when you sell in 09? it's like going into car dealership say now C200K is 70% off its 1995 peak when COE was 40k.

    Thus a fair pricing mechanism is to take things quarter to quarter, or to project price growth in line with Singapore's GDP growth.

    Take 2005 prices as baseline. Thus property prices in 2007 should not be more than 15% more than 2005 prices. And 2009 prices should then be readjusted to 10% more than 2005 prices. The 2007 spike of 50% is ridiculous - and that is why those who buy in 2007/2008 prices are burning. Those who buy in 2009 at 5-15% less than 2008 prices will also lose heavily. The market has to correct by 40% to reach par value, and that is assuming we only have a mild recession.

    Developers of new launches have to start getting grounded into reality. Telling pple that Ola Residences is high coz Lian Beng bought the land from Bravo at $42m during the 2007 peak is not our problem - we do not fund or subsidize other's losses.

    Why am I and others writing this sort of posts? Coz we need a place to stay, and we don't want to be caught in situations whereby we buy now, prices drop another 30%, and banks start calling us to top up like what's happening at Sentosa Cove, Centris and others.

    So developers and agents that have the developers' ears, please tell them to wake up their idea.

  20. #20
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    333

    Thumbs up

    thanks for the positive comment gfoo. appreciate that!

    okie.. if you guys study the market of new launches against resale, you realised that developers do not usually launch their projects at the actual market price as per the bank does values at that particular moment. whether or not you get a better from one developer against another developer is depends very much on how much discount you gets if you do get against the exact quantum, and you own personal valuation of the property. When you are purchasing a brand new developers' units you existing liabilities are of 20% on the purchase price since it will have to go thru construction phase. in comparison to purchasing brand new project thru normal progressive payment scheme where you actually pay as they build. even the hdb are of the same structure. what would be the price comparison against the brand new under construction against resale hdb in that case? Similarly for resale, your payment scale is still same as in 20% downpayment and 80% loan. as unit is available for move in thus the requirement for the immediate full liability and payment of the 100% purchase price as compared to brand new under construction. If a similar scheme is also in the hdb, why weren't anyone go make a careful comparison and complain to hdb in that case? 30-40 years hdb 4rm can averagely still command the price of 300plus thousand??? some in a better location can fetch between 400-500k hdb does not conduct en-bloc procedures as frequent like the private developers do thus average lifespan for private property is probably between 20-25years now. if today hdb do not curb speculation and investment on hdb by implementing the MOP, etc. do you think nobody will not speculate hdb just like how they speculate private? even with such restrictions and regulation, the prices of our dear public housing are still pretty unjustified if we were to look at the comparison carefully. this is still my basic needs which i call it a home. if my mom's 4rm flat was purchase at 60k 20 years ago, and today it worth the price of easily above 330k. looking at it can I actually get hdb to price the brand new and resale hdb to the current market situation/sentiment and sell it to me at probably the price it worth say ten years ago where it was only worth 120k for brand new and even smaller size.

    We are comparing the size everyday and we does mention that the size are small, etc. if we can be a little more observant, we will realise that not only pte are shrinking but the hdb too. however, to be fair to everyone... why is that we are able to accept a 3rm hdb comfortably yet we complain that 2bdrm in pte are too small? the sizes are similar too..! same complaints on 1bdrm series in pte against 2rm hdb. example: 3Standard=54sqm=581sqft, 3I=60sqm=645sqft, 3A=75sqm=807sqft. 2rm Standard=41sqm=441sqft, 2rm Improved=45sqm=484sqft.

    Those stated above are all the various sizes in hdb. let analyse on the size against size between hdb and NE. In NE, we have the size of 700/753/807/915sqft. seems like the closest i can get for the size in hdb unit for comparison against smallest 2bdrm 700sqft is the 3Simplified=65sqm=699sqft. does that mean we should be lucky that developer didn't choose to build sizes that are similar to the 3standard which is similar to our 1+1 in private? even the 1bedroom are constructed equivalent or bigger than the 2rm standard hdb flat.

    I personally think that most pte size were never an issue to buyers as in the first place most of us grown up living in flat having sizes like that or even smaller. then why as the modernisation goes, we suddenly starts to evolve in such way that we seems to feel so embarass of living in sizes like that. I personally do not mean anyone in particular but it makes me think back and ask myself sometimes when I hear such comments, was it the self-esteem that is making him feel that way when I heard one client said that 'these size are not meant for human beings to stay.' If these sizes are not humane enough in the current modern society of Singapore, then shouldn't we all petition these issues up to the human rights organization as well our own government & ministers.

    Looking back at prices.. I sincerely hope prices can really crash to the bottom where i can get my hdb flat at only 100k though 60k would be fantastic. I would love to dine in the hawker centre for a sumptous dinner for less than $2. However, I know for sure all these will never be ever possible! If it does happens, I am sorry! I seriously think this will be really disasterous. I would foresee 70% of our entire population will go bust! we might probably just have to start where we last started 50 years ago. when prices does crashes too deep down, relatively means that we have wasted the last 5 years, 10 years or even more. inflation causes the living standard in Singapore to be rising but I rather that be the case than to turn back the clock and relook the past Singapore in current moment. Its really scary...!!! Of course, this definitely will also need a good goverment to prevent all these from happening. I had never really felt anything much from the government till I stepped into the real estate industry and today I do thank god that we does have an efficient government although many of us are still cursing and swearing about certain regulation the goverment had set etc. haha...

    guess I shall stop here and look forward to more constructive inputs and discussion from you guys here! actually i started in this forum for a sole intention on biz purposes only yet nowadays its more of a personal discussion forum to me instead.


    Pet

  21. #21
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    Default

    I'm in concurrence with gfoo's view on property prices.
    Though I know that we must pay the prices according to the district.

    1) Investment Grade district for me is D9,D10,D11 and possibly the new downtown. You should expect to pay more for on each successive trough in property cycle as it is mainly expats and rich locals.
    Admore Park,
    Peak 96 - 1941
    Trough 98 - 1248
    Peak 00 - 1786
    Tough 03 - 1472
    Peak 07 - 3346
    Tough 09 - ???

    2) Non-investment Grade District is all the other locations. You should expect to be paying the same as each successive trough as it is mainly locals and owner-occupied.
    Bayshore Park,
    Peak 96 - 720
    Trough 98 -428
    Peak 00 - 562
    Trough 03 -374
    Peak 07 - 870
    Trough 09 - ???

    *Figures cited from Citigroup report..

    Anyway, frm my own perspective, it seems money flows into investment grade first ... then the leftover flows into the rest.. so the huge price increase is always at the investmetn grade ... and so, if you are buying for potential appreciation, the investment grades should always be the one you go for.

  22. #22
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    Jan 2009
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    566

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Petmail
    thanks for the positive comment gfoo. appreciate that!

    okie.. if you guys study the market of new launches against resale, you realised that developers do not usually launch their projects at the actual market price as per the bank does values at that particular moment. whether or not you get a better from one developer against another developer is depends very much on how much discount you gets if you do get against the exact quantum, and you own personal valuation of the property. When you are purchasing a brand new developers' units you existing liabilities are of 20% on the purchase price since it will have to go thru construction phase. in comparison to purchasing brand new project thru normal progressive payment scheme where you actually pay as they build. even the hdb are of the same structure. what would be the price comparison against the brand new under construction against resale hdb in that case? Similarly for resale, your payment scale is still same as in 20% downpayment and 80% loan. as unit is available for move in thus the requirement for the immediate full liability and payment of the 100% purchase price as compared to brand new under construction. If a similar scheme is also in the hdb, why weren't anyone go make a careful comparison and complain to hdb in that case? 30-40 years hdb 4rm can averagely still command the price of 300plus thousand??? some in a better location can fetch between 400-500k hdb does not conduct en-bloc procedures as frequent like the private developers do thus average lifespan for private property is probably between 20-25years now. if today hdb do not curb speculation and investment on hdb by implementing the MOP, etc. do you think nobody will not speculate hdb just like how they speculate private? even with such restrictions and regulation, the prices of our dear public housing are still pretty unjustified if we were to look at the comparison carefully. this is still my basic needs which i call it a home. if my mom's 4rm flat was purchase at 60k 20 years ago, and today it worth the price of easily above 330k. looking at it can I actually get hdb to price the brand new and resale hdb to the current market situation/sentiment and sell it to me at probably the price it worth say ten years ago where it was only worth 120k for brand new and even smaller size.

    We are comparing the size everyday and we does mention that the size are small, etc. if we can be a little more observant, we will realise that not only pte are shrinking but the hdb too. however, to be fair to everyone... why is that we are able to accept a 3rm hdb comfortably yet we complain that 2bdrm in pte are too small? the sizes are similar too..! same complaints on 1bdrm series in pte against 2rm hdb. example: 3Standard=54sqm=581sqft, 3I=60sqm=645sqft, 3A=75sqm=807sqft. 2rm Standard=41sqm=441sqft, 2rm Improved=45sqm=484sqft.

    Those stated above are all the various sizes in hdb. let analyse on the size against size between hdb and NE. In NE, we have the size of 700/753/807/915sqft. seems like the closest i can get for the size in hdb unit for comparison against smallest 2bdrm 700sqft is the 3Simplified=65sqm=699sqft. does that mean we should be lucky that developer didn't choose to build sizes that are similar to the 3standard which is similar to our 1+1 in private? even the 1bedroom are constructed equivalent or bigger than the 2rm standard hdb flat.

    I personally think that most pte size were never an issue to buyers as in the first place most of us grown up living in flat having sizes like that or even smaller. then why as the modernisation goes, we suddenly starts to evolve in such way that we seems to feel so embarass of living in sizes like that. I personally do not mean anyone in particular but it makes me think back and ask myself sometimes when I hear such comments, was it the self-esteem that is making him feel that way when I heard one client said that 'these size are not meant for human beings to stay.' If these sizes are not humane enough in the current modern society of Singapore, then shouldn't we all petition these issues up to the human rights organization as well our own government & ministers.

    Looking back at prices.. I sincerely hope prices can really crash to the bottom where i can get my hdb flat at only 100k though 60k would be fantastic. I would love to dine in the hawker centre for a sumptous dinner for less than $2. However, I know for sure all these will never be ever possible! If it does happens, I am sorry! I seriously think this will be really disasterous. I would foresee 70% of our entire population will go bust! we might probably just have to start where we last started 50 years ago. when prices does crashes too deep down, relatively means that we have wasted the last 5 years, 10 years or even more. inflation causes the living standard in Singapore to be rising but I rather that be the case than to turn back the clock and relook the past Singapore in current moment. Its really scary...!!! Of course, this definitely will also need a good goverment to prevent all these from happening. I had never really felt anything much from the government till I stepped into the real estate industry and today I do thank god that we does have an efficient government although many of us are still cursing and swearing about certain regulation the goverment had set etc. haha...

    guess I shall stop here and look forward to more constructive inputs and discussion from you guys here! actually i started in this forum for a sole intention on biz purposes only yet nowadays its more of a personal discussion forum to me instead.


    Pet
    Its very hard to comprehend your post. Anyway, you have missed the point. HDB's are way cheaper than your mickey mouse apts. So they get what they pay for. And its not about quality of living vs floor area. I came from a place where usual apt size is 500sqf so I know what small means. Its about affordability and return on investments and yield.

    Those units in NE are NOT value for money, and YET not livable. Thus its a double whammy.

  23. #23
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    Default To focus

    Can you post a link to the Citi report? Is this the Bear Trap : Sell Into Strength report?

  24. #24
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    Quote Originally Posted by pegasus
    Can you post a link to the Citi report? Is this the Bear Trap : Sell Into Strength report?
    Sorry, I deleted the report and only printed out the relevant pages I want.

  25. #25
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    Guys, you can find the citibank report here.

    http://www.docstoc.com/docs/3508437/SG-Ppty-090112

    Happy reading!!!

  26. #26
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    Thanks, gfoo. I already got it from an analyst friend.

  27. #27
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    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by HP65
    Its very hard to comprehend your post. Anyway, you have missed the point. HDB's are way cheaper than your mickey mouse apts. So they get what they pay for. And its not about quality of living vs floor area. I came from a place where usual apt size is 500sqf so I know what small means. Its about affordability and return on investments and yield.

    Those units in NE are NOT value for money, and YET not livable. Thus its a double whammy.
    Try analyse again if the same location is built with HDB instead, what kinda price would HDB tag onto this hdb? its entirely up to you if you would like to invest in a larger size and paying more for unit which you think is livable. I personally think size are still size. if hdb is livable then pte is livable. no offences, but if this gets a little prejudice against projects by denying the fact that size are the same to hdb size yet insist not livable as its that particular project then I leave it to you to decide. Affordability is defintely for sure on basis on the quantum, and investment value & yield will be for all to see and decide in time to come.


    Pet

  28. #28
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    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Petmail
    Try analyse again if the same location is built with HDB instead, what kinda price would HDB tag onto this hdb? its entirely up to you if you would like to invest in a larger size and paying more for unit which you think is livable. I personally think size are still size. if hdb is livable then pte is livable. no offences, but if this gets a little prejudice against projects by denying the fact that size are the same to hdb size yet insist not livable as its that particular project then I leave it to you to decide. Affordability is defintely for sure on basis on the quantum, and investment value & yield will be for all to see and decide in time to come.


    Pet
    Try to remember that its the buyer who are paying for your wages, not the developer. If there are no sale, developer will not be able to pay any commission to you.

    And if a developer is too greedy, building small apts at sky-high psf, the developer may not be able to survive a crisis if it can't move units. And the commission due from the developer may even be lost.
    Last edited by Farnie; 17-01-09 at 16:02.

  29. #29
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    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by Farnie
    Try to remember that its the buyer who are paying for your wages, not the developer. If there are no sale, developer will not be able to pay any commission to you.

    And if a developer is too greedy, building small apts at sky-high psf, the developer may not be able to survive a crisis if it can't move units. And the commission due from the developer may even be lost.
    Thanks for the advise, I do certainly am confident of the regulation set by the government in the controls & management of developers selling properties under-construction whether in the protection of buyers' interest or paying our dues.

    I also do agree that if developers do over-price their launchunits then either they have to delay their launch or face zero sales from their sales. however, we can only advise the developer about the market changes and feedbacks but ultermately it their panel of management with the banks who will set the benchmark since they will need the banks to support their list price as well.


    Pet

  30. #30
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    Projects with Condo status are on a higher footing than those designated with Apt status. Not necessarily due to more facilities (some apt status have all the same facilities, except for the tennis court). The main difference is due to the land area. Apts do no meet the criteris for condo classification.

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