Many siaolang in CNA forum. Many there shouting property crash due to fsical cliff, financial crisis, economic downturn.
Wahlaneh.....I recalled back in 1978-1997 in my grandmother's jewellery factory, the same shouting had been going on for donkey years by our business friends. They shouted in 1978 until in 1990, we bought our own buildings la.
After we bought our buildings, the prices continue to climb and climb until in 1997, when interest rates edged up to 9%. Property prices dropped indeed, but never to the prices we paid.
Drop in Singapore property can only come when interest rates reach 12% or above. But interest rate at the moment is:
IN American JAIL la.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pt13OAYXhPU
BTW, brothers here can recall how many recessions between 1978-1997? I was too young to remember. :P
1978, Uncle Larry, our business friend to my uncle:
" wah...property prices drop liao hor? next year will be worse."
1985 Uncle Larry: " wah..recession hor, property markets cham liao lor."
1990 Grandma bought our first Freehold 7 storey Industrial Building for S$7million.
1992 Uncle Larry:" wah recession hor, property drop liao lor ."
Bank valued the Industrial building at S$12million. We bought our second Office Building in Orchard for S$20million.
1994 Uncle Larry:" wah...property price drop liao hor."
industrial Building: S$18million
Office Building : S$25million
1996 Uncle Larry: " wah...si liao hor...recession coming ."
Industrial Building: S$22million
Office Building S$50million
1997 Uncle Larry:" FINANCIAL CRISIS LAI LIAO LOR...SI LIAO ARH ! PROPERTY CRASH BIG TIME."
Both valuation stagnant
2011 Uncle Larry passed away.
Industrial Building: S$140million
Office Building: S$225million
I haven't even start to tell you about our Hong Kong properties.
and of course, our long term property holding strategy does not work in all economies. Only economies with the following trait will enjoy the unstoppable rise in asset appreciation:
1) GOOD GOVERNANCE ( Well managed economy by government ) that ensure continual city and urban redevelopment and advancement.
2) PROPERTIES ARE BOUGHT by a Fully employment population ( In US recent crash, the property crash resulted from properties bought by many unemployed or low income population )
3) TINY ( AS reminded by brother3C)
even with a major recession. i doubt Singapore property will drop. maybe no price increase or just drop a little. the demographic of the current buyers just show that they are not uneducated and ill informed like last time.
last time, there were just one segment ( indonesian and singaporean) of the population in the market. now, there are many segments ( prcs, indians, etc ) of the population staking in property here now.
to crash the market. u need to increase interest rates to 12 % which i doubt anyone dare to do it, since big brother already warned the rest of the world liao. those rebellious ones all kena sued one by one u can see not?
interest rate will only go up when liquidity in the system subsided. or when usa makan back all her us$. at present moment, she will not risk that for the middle class. because that will cause a major inflation in the US and destabilises the forex. i bet on the brother with the biggest gun.
brothers and sisters here noticed something? That when USA prints, nobody dare not to print especially Japan. This is to make up for the exchange rates difference and to stabilise domestic currency and interest rates. There are however, a few exceptional economies, for example, that will not print:
1) Singapore
2) Hong Kong
3) China ( China is being watched by USA, so she cannot any-o-how print)
4) Germany
5) Swiss
6) England
7) European Union
brothers and sisters know why? Well, the answer is simple. These 5 economies have low unemployment rates EXCEPT for item (7).
if an economy has high unemployment rates, and you do not print, it will mean prices will go up. This includes social welfare costs will also go up. And see what happened to Greece when it is pegged to Euro?Of course it is no fault of Greece since her currency is Euro and not under her control.
And if you dun print, what happens?
So clever: ANS: INFLATION.
And if you have high unemployment and still dun print what happens?
So clever again !
ANS: GREECE.
And if you print and print like USA, what happens?
ANS: You will need to take care of the REVENUE side which is either:
a) Do away with welfare and risk rebellions.
b) Tax the rich and make Skywalker happy.
And that is exactly what Obama is trying to do now, to take care of the REVENUE side and the next step I ...I.....I.....
I cannot say, say already will not happen one.
Many missed the boats like Uncle Larry, that is why they are shouting crash and putting pressure on our beloved Ah Khaw.
MERRY CHRISTMAS !
神龙股侠。
NIL SINE LABORE!
Originally Posted by blackjack21trader
You know what is your problem?
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ranting like a mad man is easier as you can tell from my many posts in this forum.
Of course 10% ABSD for foreigners except a few special groups
