WHEN WILL PROPERTY MARKET CRASH?

[citizen x]

Hi all

My prediction is for the property market to start going down after both IRs are completed. However i dun think it will crash. Instead, it will go down gradually. 5 years after the IRs are completed, we should see the property market around the 2002 to 2004 level or slightly higher.

From now (2007) to IR completes however, we will still see a rise in prices in the prime and CBD areas, until there is an over supply of new condo launches in Orchard area because of all the en blocs that went on last couple of years. That is when prices will plateau as demand tries to keep up with supply. After that, will drop for 5 years until realistic levels.

I am getting my war chest ready for such a time, when Ardmore, Cuscaden areas drop to $1,200 psf. Then it will be time to buy. It will be the best time to buy because everyone then will be afraid to invest in property because that time will coincide with economic downturn.

[Madeira]

wah, why u look so far ahead?
for me very short sighted lah.
I just want to know whether tomorrow prices will be higher than today or not.

[Unregistered]

Citizen X, I totally disagree with you!

[citizen x]

Citizen X, I totally disagree with you!

Are you one of those property agents who are intent on talking up the market?

The property downturn will come either late this year or next year. If you intend to buy, you can wait a little while more.

For those holding prime properties, now is the time to sell. When you wait for all the Orchard launches (recently en bloc'ed sites) at sky high prices, I'm afraid that will be too late to sell your holdings. That will be the time when people start thinking how stupid it is to pay $2 M for a 1,000 sq ft cheesebox and will avoid buying like the plague.

Face it, this is as good as it gets.

[citizen x]

Face it, STI is at an all time high (discounting the minor profit taking these past 2 days), all the world's financial markets are at stratospheric heights. Property markets usually follow closely behind the stocks markets (within reason of their supply/demand).

Everything is so high now, you gotta be crazy or stupid or both to buy property now.

When something crashes, it will be like dominoes. Get ready.

[Unregistered]

dun tok kok lah. you sound like you Li Ka Shing or Kwek Leng Beng.

[The Bayshore]

The IR will have little effect on the housing market, except perhaps short-stay serviced apartments.

Given the number of developments being released - i'd say a gradual (to start with) then very sharp (later) correction will be due in the next 12-18 months.

[Madeira]

It is quite true that many properties in the core central region is overpriced.

Take for example the marQ which is going to be launched soon at beyond $3000 psf. A typical unit of 4500 sq ft would cost about abt $14 mil, including stamp fees. If it is for investment, assuming a rental yield to match the bond yield of 5%, the unit has to rented out at abt $60k per month or about $700k per year.

The highest paid CEOs in Singapore probably earns around $5 mil a year, based on Singtel CEO's pay. Only this class of CEOs can afford to rent this type of units. The number of such CEO is a handful.

But luxurious units are going to be launched at 4000 units per year from now onwards, albeit not all would cost $14 mil. But how can the market absorbed even a small proportion of these?

[bay shore park]

First you have to determine where the market is. The market for high end properties is not only in Singapore, but in Asia. Many Europeans, Americans, and Middle Easterns are also investing in Singapore properties. These may be private individuals, hedge funds, and corporations.

Second: if Singapore truly wants to have world class economy and society, we must also have the globalised population to match Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, and London. By globalised I mean cosmopolitan people from all over the world. These people think nothing of paying SGD 3,000 psf for them it is cheap. You want to compare to HK or London prices?

Third: why you talk of Singtel CEO and the like? His salary is nothing compared to global hedge fund managers and investment bankers. The average Goldman Sachs i-bankers make more than SGD 5 million in their yearly bonus alone.

[jerome]

From now on, market will have small ups and downs. This is the plateau stage already, the general price spike up has already happened and will stay at this level. The next spike is to come during the years between IRs - we will then see a new breed of investor in town, the kind Singapore has never before seen, the wildly rich jet-set type with deep bottomless pockets.

High end (luxury class) prices will stay. Mid tier and low end will vary according to location.

River Valley and Newton are both mid tier areas blessed with good location. The prices of these 2 areas will follow very closely the top end, albeit a notch down the price scale.

[Madeira]

First you have to determine where the market is. The market for high end properties is not only in Singapore, but in Asia. Many Europeans, Americans, and Middle Easterns are also investing in Singapore properties. These may be private individuals, hedge funds, and corporations.

Second: if Singapore truly wants to have world class economy and society, we must also have the globalised population to match Hong Kong, Tokyo, New York, and London. By globalised I mean cosmopolitan people from all over the world. These people think nothing of paying SGD 3,000 psf for them it is cheap. You want to compare to HK or London prices?

Third: why you talk of Singtel CEO and the like? His salary is nothing compared to global hedge fund managers and investment bankers. The average Goldman Sachs i-bankers make more than SGD 5 million in their yearly bonus alone.

There are less than 4000 Goldman Sachs i-bankers equivalent type of people working in Singapore for sure.

[i say!]

Hello madeira!

many buyers in prime areas r not "working" people. they r rich bizness man with extra cash and come from indonesia, malaysia, brunei, china, hk. local singaporeans? they cannot even smell e condos in prime districts. so if you think the demand is not there, u r wrong. the 4,000 condos r for foreigners, not locals. u think they cannot find 4,000 rich men all over the world to buy the condos? this prime market doesn't depend on locals, locals can buy yishun, jurong, pasir ris, etc. most of these rich people fly around the world and have properties in several cities. when they r not ard, they dun need even to rent out their units. they want an empty unit to live in when they r in town. so there will be demand for 4,000 units madeira.

[Unregistered]

Up or down, up or down? Why talk so much? If any of you really know the answer to that you will be rich and not be talking c*ck on the internet!

[Madeira]

I know i know, that is why the prime area is at 3000 psf because of these rich foreigners. But every year from now onwards, there r going to be 4000 units of those high ends condo, which is 3 times more than 2006's supply. So it is not easy to be absorbed by the mkt.

[Madeira]

Feb 10, 2007, The Straits Times
Buyers of 10% of One Shenton units back out of deal

By Fiona Chan

PROPERTY speculation may seem like a good way to make a quick buck, but not all would-be profiteers manage to pull it off. The Straits Times understands that buyers of more than 30 units at luxury condominium One Shenton in Shenton Way have backed out of their purchase options.
This amounts to an unusually high 10 per cent of One Shenton's 341 units - 10 times the average proportion of lapsed options in a typical residential development, according to market players. The 99-year leasehold condo was almost sold out within 30 hours of its soft launch on Jan 5, with some buyers putting up their units for resale the very next day. Market watchers said the buyers who have pulled out are likely to be failed speculators who had hoped to quickly resell their units but were unable to find takers, possibly due to high asking prices.

Home buyers generally put down 5 per cent of the home price for an option to purchase it, which they have three or four weeks to exercise. If they do so, they must fork out at least another 8 per cent for downpayment and stamp duty. If they opt not to buy, they forfeit 1.25 per cent of the property's purchase price. That could be about $50,000 for a $4 million four-bedroom one at One Shenton.

Property consultants said the high number of forfeits should serve as a warning to speculators who cannot afford to hold on to their properties.
'Speculators...should keep in mind that not every project can be profitable,' said Mr Nicholas Mak, director of research and consultancy at Knight Frank.

Mr Ku Swee Yong, director of business development and marketing at Savills Singapore, said these punters were 'probably amateurs who did not evaluate their financial options carefully and were caught up in the rush for Marina Bay homes'. Property players added that this may be the first sign of the speculative activity in Marina Bay cooling off. Property agents told The Straits Times that owners of Marina Bay homes who are trying to resell their units are having a tough time.

[Unregistered]

All these talk so just to con somebody of their cash , hahaha , Real sick this country has grown in to . End of the day , the small players will fry like a EBI tempura . After they get fried , they will be eaten whole by the rich , haha .
For me i have already let go my property at 40% profit and bought a (underpriced) unit with high potential . I just wait and don't touch the overly hyped rubbish in the market . (Follow the lemmings and you will go down the hill with them) . Think out of the box is what the GOV tells us , but Lemmings are what they want , haha . Good luck to all suckers .

[where?]

For me i have already let go my property at 40% profit and bought a (underpriced) unit with high potential .

Where at? Pray tell?

[Unregistered]

That is my secret , unless you pay me to invest for you , haha , i did my property studies for 5 months already . Whatever it is , be very smart with your buys , it can lead you to riches or make you bankrupt . What goes up , will go down . Now the property market is booming because of the deferred payment . If deferred payment for new launch is cancelled , then we see where the true property value is . I dare the GOV to cancel deferred payment scheme . It will not benefit them to get rid of it . The deferred payment scheme is leading to this current market boom and not MASS FOREIGN INVESTMENT . Now is the days of MASS SPECULATION . COME 2009-2010 that is where , the 80% balance have to be paid , that is where we will know if the 6.5 million target is true .

[Unregistered]

BTW more than 30 1 shenton back out , but 50% or more have money to wait to sell between 2 yrs time , when d-day comes on 2009 , then the Fire sales starts . Unless there are really rich idiots that will pay 2000-3000psf for 99yrs units , if not market will surly crash for the luxuary sector . For what i know , INDO's very smart buyers that go for 999 central like orchard , river valley and newton . NRI(indians) go for seaside areas (east coast) , they buy cheap and sell high . China and hongkies go for high speculation items , but they only like to buy from developers and launches . Angmohs , rather rent than buy . Malaysians have limited budgets . Think about it , if we buy expensive launch items and wait for 2 years to sell and if the market is churning out new projects non stop , what do you think the end result will be ???????

[Unregistered]

By then your national antem will be " Mati Li lah , bodoh lah Singaporean Ah , Never use your Otat lah , then kena bankrupt ah . "

[Snapper]

Come lah. Launch the units into the market. lah We buyers will snap them up. Come. don't wait.

MBFC highest at $3,400 psf? We have snapped them up.
One-North Residences highest at $1,100 psf? We have snapped them up.

Seafront @ Meyer launching between $1,400-2,200 psf? Launch lah. We will snap them up.
Orchard Residences (at Orchard Turn) launching between $3,200-3,900 psf? What are you waiting for? Launch lah. We will snap them up.

Come. Come. You dare to launch. We dare to snap.

[Supporter]

Come lah. Launch the units into the market. lah We buyers will snap them up. Come. don't wait. ...... You dare to launch. We dare to snap.

Shut up lah. Are you trying to encourage more people to enter the market? More people means less profit leh. You stupid lah.

Get these people out of the Singapore market lah. Let them go to New York, London, Tokyo, HongKong, etc. and buy property lah. We have the whole Singapore market by ourselves.

Yes!

[Observer]

Foreigners are buying more. This is good!

[Unregistered]

No good! Poor people like me got no chance to stay condo!

[Property Cashier]

21 March 2007

Prices for the high-end luxury residential sector continued to climb to new highs.

According to developer CapitaLand, several units of its Orchard Residences development at Orchard Turn had been sold at up to S$4,000 per square foot.

The 56-storey development is being built by CapitaLand and Hong Kong's Sun Hung Kai Properties.

Units above the 32nd floor attained prices of more than S$3,200 per square foot.

CapitaLand said the buyers were established high net worth individuals in Singapore and the region.

It expects to release about 50 percent of the 175-unit development for sale in the first phase on a by-invitation basis.

The development is targeted for completion in late 2009.