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Thread: Home prices fall after 4yrs

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    Default Home prices fall after 4yrs

    http://www.straitstimes.com/Breaking...ry_285041.html

    Oct 2, 2008

    Home prices fall after 4yrs

    HDB resale flat prices still rising but at a slower pace.

    By Fiona Chan


    PRIVATE home prices in Singapore fell between July and September - the first time in over four years and after almost a year of deadlock between buyers and sellers in which home sales all but dried up.

    Official estimates released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) on Thursday showed that overall prices of private residential properties slided 1.8 per cent in the third quarter, led by homes in the central region, which fell by about 2 per cent.

    Suburban home prices, however, held steady with a marginal 0.1 per cent rise.

    HDB resale flat prices are also still going strong, but at a slower pace. They rose 4.2 per cent in the third quarter, on top of a 4.5 per cent increase in the second quarter.

    So far this year, private home prices have risen 2 per cent, while HDB resale prices have increased 13 per cent.

    For the first time since 2006, the URA did not highlight the number of upcoming homes in the flash estimates, after concerns that the large headline supply figures would further dampen already gloomy sentiment.

    Instead, the agency said housing supply statistics will be released along with the full set of third-quarter property data at the end of October.

    The URA said early estimates showed the price index for private residential properties dropped to 174.3 points from 177.5 in the previous three-month period.

    This is the first decline in the index since the first quarter of 2004, amid concerns over the global financial turmoil that has caused home sales to slump.

    Private home sales in Singapore plummeted 81 per cent in August from a year ago, to the lowest level since March as a combination of global financial turmoil and the traditionally 'unlucky' Hungry Ghost month spooked buyers.

    Poor demand and a looming housing glut are threatening to plunge the property market into a prolonged downturn, which could deal a blow to Singapore's top developers such as CapitaLand, CityDev and Keppel Land.

    The advance estimates are compiled from transaction prices lodged during the first 10 weeks of the quarter as well as data from new apartments that have been booked.

    The URA will release the official price index in four weeks.

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    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...99645,00.html?

    Published October 3, 2008

    Private home prices ease after 4 years

    Strength in HDB resale prices in Q3 anchors market overall while private residential prices dip 1.8%, flash estimates show

    By EMILYN YAP


    (SINGAPORE) Third-quarter private property prices fell for the first time after 17 straight quarters of growth.

    And with financial and economic headwinds working their way through, market watchers reckon this could be the start of further price falls ahead.

    Urban Redevelopment Authority flash estimates for July to September released yesterday show the private residential property price index dipped 1.8 per cent from Q2.

    But strength in the public housing resale market is supporting the property sector overall. The Housing and Development Board resale flat index advanced an estimated 4.2 per cent in Q3 from Q2, exceeding its previous peak in 1996.

    The 1.8 per cent fall in private home prices was largely driven by declines in the Core Central and Rest of Central regions. Prices of non-landed private housing in these areas slid 2 per cent and 2.1 per cent respectively. Holding up, with support from HDB upgraders, were prices in the Outside Central Region (OCR), which edged up 0.1 per cent in Q3.

    The fall in private property prices comes as no surprise to Knight Frank's director of consultancy and research Nicholas Mak. 'US financial problems and the global economic slowdown already weighed down investment sentiment and caused the local transaction volume of private homes to diminish since H2 2007,' he said. 'As (these) problems persisted, it was only a matter of time before overall private home prices started to fall as well.'

    DTZ's senior director of research Chua Chor Hoon also anticipated the slide. But she noted that 'the index has not fallen significantly because many developers are still holding firm on prices for their projects'.

    URA's private residential property price index rose just 0.2 per cent in Q2 2008. Taking the Q3 estimate into account, prices have increased 2.1 per cent this year.

    But there is unlikely to be any let-up in price pressure, according to market watchers. 'Prices, which are now under tremendous pressure, are likely to decline again in Q4,' said CB Richard Ellis' executive director Li Hiaw Ho.

    Reflecting this sentiment, Knight Frank's Mr Mak said: 'Whatever price gain was achieved in the first half of this year will be given up in H2, resulting in flat prices for the whole of 2008.'

    With worldwide financial turmoil eating into Singapore's GDP growth prospects and threatening job losses, Citi has projected respective price falls of 25 and 15 per cent in the high-end and mid-tier private residential housing over the next six to 18 months.

    Even the OCR is unlikely to be immune. 'While it has been performing better, prices in that area will also drop if the economic slowdown continues,' said DTZ's Ms Chua.

    Explaining how the HDB resale market performed so strongly in Q3, ERA Asia Pacific's assistant vice-president Eugene Lim said there was robust demand from upgraders, downgraders and permanent residents.

    Including the Q3 estimates, the HDB resale price index has jumped 12.4 per cent this year. And the rise will now probably be 'in the region of 15 per cent for the whole year', said Propnex CEO Mohd Ismail.

    ERA's Mr Lim said the HDB resale market could see an overall price increase of 15-17 per cent in 2008. But he noted that Q3's estimated 4.2 per cent increase in the resale price index was a shade lower than the 4.5 per cent in Q2. '(This) may be a sign that prices have begun to moderate,' he said.

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    http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/sub/...99510,00.html?

    October 2, 2008, 1.11 pm (Singapore time)

    S'pore private home prices fall 1.8% in Q3


    SINGAPORE - Singapore private residential prices fell 1.8 per cent between July and September, snapping four straight years of growth as concerns over the global financial turmoil caused home sales to slump.

    The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) said early estimates showed the price index for private residential properties dropped to 174.3 points for the three months ended September from 177.5 in the previous three-month period.

    This is the first decline in the index since the first quarter of 2004.

    Private home sales in Singapore plummeted 81 per cent in August from a year ago, to the lowest level since March as a combination of global financial turmoil and the traditionally 'unlucky' Hungry Ghost month spooked buyers.

    Poor demand and a looming housing glut are threatening to plunge the property market into a prolonged downturn, which could deal a blow to Singapore's top developers such as CapitaLand, CityDev and Keppel Land.

    The advance estimates are compiled from transaction prices lodged during the first 10 weeks of the quarter as well as data from new apartments that have been booked. The URA will release the official price index in four weeks. -- REUTERS

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    http://www.straitstimes.com/Prime%2B...ry_285219.html

    October 3, 2008 Friday

    Private home prices: First fall in 4-1/2 years

    By Fiona Chan, Property Reporter


    PRICES of private homes have fallen for the first time in four-and-a-half years, marking an end to the property boom that started in 2004.

    And prices are likely to keep falling well into next year, squeezed by continuing financial turbulence and a looming global recession, say property consultants.

    At least HDB flat owners have some reason to cheer. Resale prices continued to climb in the third quarter, pushing values to their highest level since 1996.

    Official estimates yesterday showed that HDB resale prices rose 4.2 per cent in the July to September period, on top of a 4.5 per cent rise in the previous quarter.

    But overall prices of private homes slipped 1.8 per cent in the period, after flattening out in the second quarter. Consultants called it a turning point after almost a year of deadlock between buyers and sellers in which sales all but dried up.

    Most had expected the drop, given the financial problems in the United States and global economic slowdown.

    'It was only a matter of time before overall private home prices started to fall as well,' said Knight Frank's director of research and consultancy Nicholas Mak.

    Homes in the city-fringe areas led the price decline, dropping 2.1 per cent in areas ranging from Queenstown and Bishan to Marine Parade and Sentosa. In the choicest Orchard Road, Holland and Bukit Timah districts, prices fell for the second straight quarter. They dipped 2 per cent, after falling 0.1 per cent in the April to June period. But suburban prices held steady and actually rose slightly by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, on top of a 0.9 per cent rise in the previous three months.

    Despite the overall fall in the third quarter, private home prices have risen about 2 per cent since January. But they could fall 10 per cent over the next 12 months, and even more beyond that, said Mr Mak.

    'Developers may start to offer 'soft discounts' such as giving vouchers and absorbing stamp duty, and could hold back launches as far as three, four years,' he added.

    While sales will slow in the fourth quarter, 'there could be some sparks of activity if interesting projects such as Marina Bay Suites, Sentosa Quayside and The Arte on Thomson Road are launched', said Mr Li Hiaw Ho, executive director of CB Richard Ellis Research.

    For the first time since 2006, the Urban Redevelopment Authority did not highlight the number of upcoming private homes in the flash estimates, after concerns that the large headline supply figures did not reflect delayed completions and may further dampen market sentiment.

    Housing supply statistics will be released with the full set of third-quarter property data at the end of this month.

    But this will be scant comfort for property developers, many of whom saw their shares drop sharply yesterday after analysts downgraded their counters.

    Citigroup analyst Wendy Koh predicts that high-end home prices will fall by 25 per cent, the mid-end by 15 per cent and mass market by 5 to 10 per cent.

    'I'm definitely going to wait for prices to fall some more; signs are clear that things are going to get worse before they get better,' said potential buyer Chris Low, 28, who works in a technology research firm.

    The only bright spot is the HDB market, where resale prices have jumped 12 per cent this year and could rack up a 15 per cent rise for the whole year, said Mr Mohamed Ismail, chief executive of property agency PropNex.

    'We can even expect to see this strong demand continuing into next year, mainly because of the time lag to build flats, coupled with stronger demands from PRs due to higher rental costs,' he added.

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    Default URA expects Q3 private home prices to fall 1.8%

    http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stori...379779/1/.html

    URA expects Q3 private home prices to fall 1.8%

    By Wong Siew Ying, Channel NewsAsia | Posted: 02 October 2008 1401 hrs


    SINGAPORE: Private home prices in Singapore fell by 1.8 per cent in the third quarter, according to flash estimates released on Thursday by the Urban Redevelopment Authority.

    This is the first time the index of private residential properties has dipped in four years to 174.3 points in the third quarter, compared to second quarter's price index of 177.5 points, which was a 0.2 per cent increase over the previous quarter.

    The cost of high-end properties in prime districts continues to taper, with prices falling by 2 per cent quarter-on-quarter, but those in the mass market segment grew marginally by 0.1 per cent.

    Some industry watchers say the figure is better than expected, given deflated investor sentiments amid concerns of a brewing global economic storm.

    They expect a gradual sell-down of properties if prices trend down further and the economy takes a turn for the worse.

    Director of Savillis, Ku Swee Yong, said: "There has been an increased urgency to sell. The good thing that is preventing that from happening on a very widespread scale is interest rates are still pretty low. We are worried about the potential job losses, but that has yet to happen in a big way."

    Analysts project prices of private residential properties will slide by 2 per cent over the next 6 months. But they add that this is unlikely to trigger substantial sales as buyers will bide their time until prices bottom out.

    Director of Consultancy & Research at Knight Frank, Nicholas Mak, said: "Developers will try to resist cutting prices, they may give different sorts of soft discounts. For example, they may give furniture vouchers, they may give renovation vouchers or other methods in a way to try to encourage the growth."

    With the financial crisis unfolding in the US, market players say some investors are considering parking their funds in the property market instead of investing in financial instruments.

    One analyst said that the number of enquires on properties has gone up since the collapse of investment bank Lehman Brothers.

    In contrast, prices of resale public housing flats rose 4.2 per cent in the third quarter.

    This is slightly lower than the 4.5 per cent increase registered in the second quarter, but property watchers say demand in this segment will continue to be robust.

    Real estate agency Propnex says the Resale Price Index (RPI) of 137.4 is now the highest mark reached by the RPI since the last quarter of 1996, which saw an RPI of 136.9.

    Property agents believe demand for resale flats will continue to be robust despite the Housing and Development Board's plan to offer more new units in the coming months, and the overall price outlook for the year could see a growth of between 15 and 17 per cent.

    - CNA/yt

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    hmmmm... looks quite its time for all those who bought properties on deferred payment scheme for investment purposes to sell sell sell! the million dollar question is: how long will this down turn last?

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    Quote Originally Posted by toaler
    hmmmm... looks quite its time for all those who bought properties on deferred payment scheme for investment purposes to sell sell sell! the million dollar question is: how long will this down turn last?
    3 years 6 mths

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    Quote Originally Posted by toaler
    hmmmm... looks quite its time for all those who bought properties on deferred payment scheme for investment purposes to sell sell sell! the million dollar question is: how long will this down turn last?
    3 years 6 mths 2 days
    This forum has gone dead quiet vs earlier this year...wonder where all my "friends" have gone?

    Everyone's hoping for a short & shallow recession. Forget it..well at least the former. How does 2-3% growth for the next 3 years sound?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Boon
    3 years 6 mths 2 days
    This forum has gone dead quiet vs earlier this year...wonder where all my "friends" have gone?

    Everyone's hoping for a short & shallow recession. Forget it..well at least the former. How does 2-3% growth for the next 3 years sound?
    Hi Boon,


    I hope it will be 3-4% growth for the next 3 years

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    Quote Originally Posted by C.X
    Hi Boon,


    I hope it will be 3-4% growth for the next 3 years
    with Citi already looking at negative growth next year..maybe our 2-4% is VERY good already hor...

    i think many havent yet priced in a slowdown in china. that's on the way...Spore probably would die for 2-3% under that particular scenario.

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