Reflections at Keppel Bay (D4, 99 Years, Keppel Land)

[august]

LH or FH shld be secondary to location.

[howgozit]

LH or FH shld be secondary to location.

Yah... but for apple to apple comparison, given same location FH should be more favoured than LH right?

[richie$$$]

Developer has to pay differential premium to top up LH land back to 99. No issue with FH. So developer will pay less to the LH enbloc owners.

The issue does not go away through enbloc.

lower entry capital
same rent yield whats d problem

developers like enbloc LH or FH
FH got better chances? developers know can squeeze LH owners
still got chance mah

over time still make $$$

[richie$$$]

Bro can elaborate a bit more? Your English very cheem... I catch no ball.... So fh good or LH good?

bro u can attend my not queen english class?
pay $$$

[richie$$$]

btw agent told me maintenance fee 2 bedder $500
mayb i heard wrong le..now sms him.

if yes, nd 2 f developer why switch on so many lights n pass costs to owners.
buy 1 n b on committee n comment big owners cover.

[richie$$$]

Yah... but for apple to apple comparison, given same location FH should be more favoured than LH right?

fm rent perspective y d diff betwn FH n LH?
tenant dun care LH or FH?

[DC33_2008]

Wow! Not Cheap. There is a D1 2-bedder condo maintenance fee is less than half of $500.

btw agent told me maintenance fee 2 bedder $500
mayb i heard wrong le..now sms him.

if yes, nd 2 f developer why switch on so many lights n pass costs to owners.
buy 1 n b on committee n comment big owners cover.

[bargain hunter]

i can confirm it. owner friend told me the same. just under $500 after GST for his 2 bedder.

btw agent told me maintenance fee 2 bedder $500
mayb i heard wrong le..now sms him.

if yes, nd 2 f developer why switch on so many lights n pass costs to owners.
buy 1 n b on committee n comment big owners cover.

[bargain hunter]

the numerous water features also not cheap to maintain. and dun overlook the fully air con B1 and level 1 lift lobbies.

carribean 3 bedder's maintenence has been ever increasing. almost $600 already now. so can expect more of the same for reflections in the years to come.

btw agent told me maintenance fee 2 bedder $500
mayb i heard wrong le..now sms him.

if yes, nd 2 f developer why switch on so many lights n pass costs to owners.
buy 1 n b on committee n comment big owners cover.

[richie$$$]

i can confirm it. owner friend told me the same. just under $500 after GST for his 2 bedder.

agent just sms me
i didnt hear wrongly. same as bargain hunter

w.tf the developer is doing...1100 owners...why switch on so many lights
oversight on dis...will rethink again.

rent must b bloodyhigh 2 cover

peanuts 4 foreigners.
killer 4 me singaporean jialat

D10 D11 2-4 yr old 200+ owners only $300 below 4 a 2-bedder
hv to cool it better eject out 2 other projects n revisit reflections nxt 2 mths after understanding rent$ demand

[howgozit]

fm rent perspective y d diff betwn FH n LH?
tenant dun care LH or FH?

Yep that's true if one is just looking at only rental returns.

[orangeroad80]

That's very insightful. Now, that's explains why.

I see, so that's also how reflections manage to bring up the price of caribbean 2x.

I thought this is a good method to ensure the psf of the future plots - 3, 4 and 6 does not bring down the price of caribbean and reflections. One of the reasons why i see reflections as a safer investment is that besides it's a global iconic residential like the Sail, it's own developer has further interests in developing surrounding plots which will improve the value of the current projects. Most importantly, there won't be conflicts of interests as the surrounding projects belong to the same developer - Keppel with a masterplan in mind. I think this is quite a safe investment + gd for own stay as compared to some mass market condos where prices are escalating to unbelievable heights in recent months.

Keppel is repeating the same strategy they used for the Caribbean, where they originally held back 150 units for corporate lease. These were rented as fully furnished units at approximately 50% above market rents (e.g $7-8K for a 2 bedder) and then sold at an average of $1450psf last year (versus the price of their last release in 2007 of $750psf). This is how Keppel the benchmarked the Reflections first launch price.

Their phase three is already in the works. Total development size 325,00sqft, so 200-300 units total depending on the size.

http://www.heintges.com/project.php?...pel-bay-plot-3

I think this may be why Caribbean prices have been so firm recently. This is a mirror of the Caribbean plot.

Now if you were Keppel with 3 more plots to develop after this, what price are you going to try to launch? $1500 (Caribbean current average) $2,000psf (Reflections current average, assuming a range of $1500-$2500psf) or $2,500psf? And what price do you think Keppel believes it can get for the balance Reflections units in (say) 2016...$2,500psf or current prices?

For those curious, they are leasing at fully furnished apartments. Published rate is $10-13K for a 2bedroom, average $13-19K for 3bedroom and $30K for a 4bedder, with 10% off for the current time. These are all villa blocks with inward facings. They are not available for sale...I asked and was not entertained.

Keppel is a company with the same guys in charge for 30 years. This is a "hedgehog" company, what they plan to do is not very difficult to work out.

http://www.ianbell.com/2009/05/19/th...h-one-are-you/

[orangeroad80]

For info, the maintenance fee is $70 per share.
Dependent on size, it's standard eg <51 sq m = 5 shares, 51-100 sq = 6 shares, 100 sq-150 sq = 7 shares, 150 sq - 200 sq = 8 shares and so on. So 2 bedder are either 6 shares $420 or 7 shares $490 dependent on floor size.

If you are comparing maintenance fees between projects, you should compare share value to share value. Actually, I realised most new condo projects now are $40 per share & abv already. The maintenance fees for older condo are cheaper.

[richie$$$]

double of other projects?
if 4 investment must get high rent 2 cover this.
if own stay jialat. tis fee go up no come down.
dun tell me nxt time go up 2 $1000. dun understand so many owners still so high..pay 4 sinking fund or maintenance?

dun tell me sinking fund is anothr diff amt

[Rosy]

sinking fund will kick in after 1-2 years

[Heng]

For info, the maintenance fee is $70 per share.
Dependent on size, it's standard eg
<51 sq m = 5 shares,
51-100 sq = 6 shares,
100 sq-150 sq = 7 shares,
150 sq - 200 sq = 8 shares and so on.

So 2 bedder are either 6 shares $420 or 7 shares $490 dependent on floor size.

.

Anyone got the approved strata scheme ?

For Reflections, is it tilted in favor of 3 bedrooms and larger units ?

Based on Orangeroad80 posting, a 1076 sq ft ( 100 sq m ) has to pay $ 490 monthly for maintenance fee ( $524.30 w GST ) ???

Does the $524.30 includes sinking fund ?

[DC33_2008]

Your maintenace slip should show the sinking fund if it is there. Sinking funds comes in only after a few years. It is just a reserve fund to pay for big ticket project in condo like change of lifts, etc.

Anyone got the approved strata scheme ?

For Reflections, is it tilted in favor of 3 bedrooms and larger units ?

Based on Orangeroad80 posting, a 1076 sq ft ( 100 sq m ) has to pay $ 490 monthly for maintenance fee ( $524.30 w GST ) ???

Does the $524.30 includes sinking fund ?

[Heng]

Developer sold unit at $1,780 psf in 2012 January.

About the same range in 2007 ? except lowest psf from Developer is $1,366 psf.

See attached from URA web-site showing that psf hardly changed since 2007 ?

[8kenshin]

The implied gain is 30% up, (1,780/1,366), but it obviously pretty hard to work out exact numbers due to facings etc.

My own guess is that its up 15-20% on average. Other developments I looked at such as Cosmopolitan, Azure, Caribbean are up ~30% over the same period.

Developer sold unit at $1,780 psf in 2012 January.

About the same range in 2007 ? except lowest psf from Developer is $1,366 psf.

See attached from URA web-site showing that psf hardly changed since 2007 ?

[orangeroad80]

Ya, I also noticed the gain is considered v minimal, only around 15% over a period of 5 years. Hence, there is still a huge potential for future capital gain, especially when there are 3 unleashed plots of land supporting the future prices.

Honestly, I have seen OCR mass market condo, gaining 50-60% from launch till TOP. I hesitated in getting those as sub-sales, as the prices are already nearing RCR and CCR prices.

[Heng]

Ya, I also noticed the gain is considered v minimal, only around 15% over a period of 5 years. .

Very few subsales got profits as Reflections was sold by developer at already high quantum for 2 bedroom units.

e.g. Just before the latest Cooling Measures, a unit sold for $1.33 m in Nov 2011 was bought at $1.226m. Less than $100k profit. Gross margin was less than 9%. The nett profit was very much less.

Less than 9% gross after 5 years for the lucky first owner. The unit was on high floor, above 12. Opportunity cost was high because most properties bought in 2007 onwards reaped very much better gains.

A study in detail will show most 2 roomers in Reflections did not make profits. Going forward, it is even more difficult with ABSD, SSD, etc

It does not help that holding costs are high, monthly maintenance of $500, property tax another $500, interest costs, etc

[orangeroad80]

I see it in different light. I see opportunities in sub-sales when the first owner is selling nearer to the launch price, that means the first owner has not enjoy the full gain yet, which would be left to the next owner to enjoy it. It's like stocks. I normally will not buy a sub-sales when I know the first owner has already gained huge substantial profits and I will ask myself what is the likelihood of me gaining good profits later. I think a good example is Caspian, it's going to TOP in July, look at the sub-sales asking price, they are more than 2 times the launch price, do you still want to buy ?

Honestly, I rather spend 1.3m to buy a 2 rm reflections, than spending it on a 3 rm water town condo. First, I can rent it out as reflections has TOP, with rents subsidize monthly loan payments. Reflections has surrounding condo at poorer locations pricing at launch price 1900 psf and above. Even if we exclude Keppel next plot, when these condo top in 4 yrs time in 2016, I am quite sure the below unit can help me fetch 2100 psf & abv, helping to make 300-350k profits. It may not be a very huge gain, but I would say it's a very safe investment with a peace of mind. Whereas for watertown, it's a total mystery to me whether I can squeeze the same profits in 4 yrs time and I could not rent out during development. I would say in yr 2011, reflections and rochester mall are one of the more value sub-sales purchase.

With SSD, i think sub-sale market may become almost extinct by 2014/15. It may become mostly re-sale or launch purchase transactions, unless the projects take more than 4 to 5 years to develop. So make full use of the opportunity now when there are still good sub-sales around

Very few subsales got profits as Reflections was sold by developer at already high quantum for 2 bedroom units.

e.g. Just before the latest Cooling Measures, a unit sold for $1.33 m in Nov 2011 was bought at $1.226m. Less than $100k profit. Gross margin was less than 9%. The nett profit was very much less.

Less than 9% gross after 5 years for the lucky first owner. The unit was on high floor, above 12. Opportunity cost was high because most properties bought in 2007 onwards reaped very much better gains.

A study in detail will show most 2 roomers in Reflections did not make profits. Going forward, it is even more difficult with ABSD, SSD, etc

It does not help that holding costs are high, monthly maintenance of $500, property tax another $500, interest costs, etc

[Heng]

$1.330m , $1.350m, $1.352m units got lower psf than 2007 median of $$1,783 psf for small units.

See extracts from URA :

$1,366 psf in 2007 was for larger unit.....$1.2m was launch price for many 2 bedroom units The $1.33m unit was only 775 sq ft. Thus developer price was about $1.23 m in 2007. First owner subsale at $1.33 m.

..in sub-sales when the first owner is selling nearer to the launch price,

Honestly, I rather spend 1.3m to buy a 2 rm reflections....

Thus first owner to subsale at $1.3 m still got profits. If sell at launch price of $1.2 m ...many prospects may still consider it expensive due to very small units of 775, 786, 893 sq ft units , possibly with disappearing golf view in few years' time.

Today's pricing can get 2 bedroom at about $700k in lesser locations. Easier to make similar profits from 2 units then to extract $200k from 1 Reflections unit without view.

Large 3 rooms with sea view will always in demand and thus command premium price....... It is the 2 rooms that suffer and likely to cause losses if buyers pay too high a price.

[orangeroad80]

Have to compare apple with apple... no one is stopping you to buy a 700k condo elsewhere, pls feel free to purchase as long as you think it's worthwhile.

I find Marq at the Patterson expensive, but the ppl who bought it may not think so. It's kinda irritating if I were to go to their forum page and complain to them everyday their houses are very expensive and they will surely make loses and they should have bought 50 units of 700k condo elsewhere. Hope you get what I mean.

Ppl who bought, see value in it. If you think it's expensive for you, then look elsewhere. As simple as that.

$1.330m , $1.350m, $1.352m units got lower psf than 2007 median of $$1,783 psf for small units.

See extracts from URA :

$1,366 psf in 2007 was for larger unit.....$1.2m was launch price for many 2 bedroom units The $1.33m unit was only 775 sq ft. Thus developer price was about $1.23 m in 2007. First owner subsale at $1.33 m.



Thus first owner to subsale at $1.3 m still got profits. If sell at launch price of $1.2 m ...many prospects may still consider it expensive due to very small units of 775, 786, 893 sq ft units , possibly with disappearing golf view in few years' time.

Today's pricing can get 2 bedroom at about $700k in lesser locations. Easier to make similar profits from 2 units then to extract $200k from 1 Reflections unit without view.

Large 3 rooms with sea view will always in demand and thus command premium price....... It is the 2 rooms that suffer and likely to cause losses if buyers pay too high a price.

[orangeroad80]

It's confirmed. Keppel is launching Plot 3 Residential soon in April-May 2012.

The showroom is building in progress, on the plot of land besides Caribbean and the signboard indicated expected date of completion of showroom as May 2012. Will it going to be another 8 million showflat like Reflections' one ? This development is going to set new benchmark in prices in harbourfront area. I look forward to the seaview promenade that finally connects to harbourfront, Vivo.

Keppel is repeating the same strategy they used for the Caribbean, where they originally held back 150 units for corporate lease. These were rented as fully furnished units at approximately 50% above market rents (e.g $7-8K for a 2 bedder) and then sold at an average of $1450psf last year (versus the price of their last release in 2007 of $750psf). This is how Keppel the benchmarked the Reflections first launch price.

Their phase three is already in the works. Total development size 325,00sqft, so 200-300 units total depending on the size.

http://www.heintges.com/project.php?...pel-bay-plot-3

I think this may be why Caribbean prices have been so firm recently. This is a mirror of the Caribbean plot.

Now if you were Keppel with 3 more plots to develop after this, what price are you going to try to launch? $1500 (Caribbean current average) $2,000psf (Reflections current average, assuming a range of $1500-$2500psf) or $2,500psf? And what price do you think Keppel believes it can get for the balance Reflections units in (say) 2016...$2,500psf or current prices?

For those curious, they are leasing at fully furnished apartments. Published rate is $10-13K for a 2bedroom, average $13-19K for 3bedroom and $30K for a 4bedder, with 10% off for the current time. These are all villa blocks with inward facings. They are not available for sale...I asked and was not entertained.

Keppel is a company with the same guys in charge for 30 years. This is a "hedgehog" company, what they plan to do is not very difficult to work out.

http://www.ianbell.com/2009/05/19/th...h-one-are-you/

[Heng]

$1.27 m done for above 10th floor : 818 sq ft : thus unblocked view

Competition as more units are put up for sale / rent will cause prices to drop. The fall is likely to be faster once the defects are rectified.

Owners have started to attend to the defects submission, etc
since 5 December 2011, TOP date.

[Heng]

Will be interesting to see if the ABSD and possibly slowing economy will throw up any bargains (count me in for any direct seaview for $1600psf!)

.

see attached file for 2 property agents who advertised units @ your preferred psf of $1,600 or about $1.4m .

I do not know them and have no deals with any of the 2 who advertised the units on propertyguru yesterday .

[Heng]

saw a unit at 1.2mil for 900sqft...that's oredi cheap...

if 20% correction, it may go under 1mil

Possibly this is the $1.2 million unit caveated in 2012 January.

[8kenshin]

see attached file for 2 property agents who advertised units @ your preferred psf of $1,600 or about $1.4m .

I do not know them and have no deals with any of the 2 who advertised the units on propertyguru yesterday .

Thanks for this. 'm a bit greedy though, I wanted $1600 for direct sea view

BTW, on the caveats, a lot of them could be from the original sale. i have a relative who bought a unit in 2007 on deferred payment, until today her unit has not been shown up on the caveat list.

[august]

yup due to DPS, the caveats are only lodged now.