Originally Posted by

**2ndTimeLucky**
**12.9% fall in last 11 months**

**Method:**

A simple property price survey was performed based on URA website caveats. Sampled all condos who's name starts with "The", from 'The 101' all the way to 'The Yardly'.

Stratified them into 4-month groups, and took the mean price/psf for each 4 monthly group.

**Results:**

Sep-Dec 2007, 1453 units, $1108/psf

Jan - April 2008, 710, $1043/psf = 5.8% fall

May -July 2008, 595, $965/psf = 7.5% fall

Cumulative 12.9% fall over 11 months.

**Discussion:**

In the resale/subsale market, mean prices have been falling over the last year.

In 11 months, property has devalued 12.9% *on top of*the 7% rate inflation. That means that you've lost a total of 20% had you bought property. In fact if you had left your cash in FD at 1.5%, then your total loss by buying property would have been 21.5%.

The URA property price index calculation, I don't know how they did it. Perhaps they included prices of new units launched, where the price slides have been artificially masked by 'discounts', 'rebates', stamp-duty rebates, and furnishing vouchers.

The rate of fall actually seems to be accelerating rather than stabilising. Fall was 5.8%, then accelerating to 7.5%.

Criticisms

Since I only sampled condo's starting with 'The', they are probably newer condos. I don't know if there are any problems generalising these results to all condos irregardless of name (and hence age). Someone with more patience and time could repeat the study by including all condos listed in the URA website.

On the other hand, since almost every new condo (from high to low end) these days seems to start with "the", this may turn out to be a good representative sample of the market.

*This survey hasn't distinguished the price changes over time stratified by condo project. Hence, it can't distinguish if the fall in mean price was due to falling prices at each project, or because of a relative increase in proportion of mass-market sales.* Someone who has access to proper statistical software and knows how to use it could do the study but stratify them by project type.

**Conclusion**

In my own simple sample of 2758 transactions over the last 11 months, mean prices have fallen almost 13% in 11 months alone, with no sign of stabilisation, but in fact accelerating fall..